Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke says that it very likely is. And I can almost hear the complaints: "Sure, Bernanke has a job! What about the 15 million people who were unemployed in August? Bet they don't think the recession is over!"

What Chairman Bernanke, and most economists, mean when they say that a recession is over, is that the economy has stopped declining. A recession is when the production of goods and services is falling, when the number of jobs is decreasing and when retail sales are less than they were before. The recession is over when production, jobs and sales start rising again. But that means the last day of recession is the worst day of all.

What most people probably mean by recession is a less-than-satisfactory level of economic activity. We could have an unemployment rate of 5 percent, but instead it's 9.7 percent. Economists recognize this as a problem, too. It's an economy operating at less than capacity, with unemployed resources. We could produce more, but we're not. Bernanke agrees that even with the recession over, unemployment will stay up, and the economy will feel weak for some time to come.

For economists, the end of a recession doesn't mean that everything is all right. It just means that things aren't getting worse anymore.

The National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass., is the quasi-official umpire of recessions and expansions. They're the ones who marked December 2007 as the beginning of this recession. That month marked the peak of economic activity. It's been downhill since then.

They made that call in December 2008, which let the news media have fun writing, "This just in, recession began a year ago." The NBER wants to be absolutely sure of their dates, so they take their time.

How do we know if a recession is over?

The NBER's economists look at four indicators: total payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments adjusted for inflation, manufacturing and trade sales adjusted for inflation, and the Federal Reserve's industrial production index. All of these indicators started dropping between October 2007 and January 2008.

Total payroll employment peaked in December 2007. Since then almost 7 million jobs have disappeared, and, as of August, it had not stopped falling. The only good news--and this is a stretch--is that the rate of decrease is decreasing. From November to April, employers cut almost 650 thousand jobs a month, on average. Since then, they've cut "only" 315 thousand a month.

Personal income adds up what people earn. Part of income is transfer payments, like Social Security, unemployment insurance and welfare. Transfer payments tend to rise in recessions, so when they are subtracted from personal income, what's left is a better measure of economic activity. They take out the influence of inflation for good measure. Personal income increased in July and August, after falling in 18 of the previous 21 months. This indicator may have turned the corner.

Inflation-adjusted manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade sales also appear to have stopped falling. May marked the low point for sales, so far. They grew in June, July and August. The industrial production index hit a low point in June and then increased in July and August.

So, of the four indicators that the NBER uses to mark recessions and expansions, one continues to decline; two "troughed" in June and have increased in the two months since then; and one hit its low point in May and has increased for three months since then. Is that enough to declare the recession over? Not according to the NBER, of course. Those careful observers will probably wait until the middle of next year to make their call.

Conveniently, these four indicators make up the "Index of Coincident Indicators" announced each month by the Conference Board. That index is up (a little) since June.

I guess that the NBER will end up marking the end of the recession sometime from May to August, 2009. The recession probably is over. But, remember, that doesn't mean that everything will soon be OK. The first day of recovery feels a lot like the last day of recession.

Currently the national law allows people to collect unemployment benefits for 79 weeks. 79 weeks is already an extension of the usual time limit for unemployment and, yet, legislation is being considered that would extend this benefit time. Why? Because many people have been unemployed for longer than 79 weeks, and the number of people unemployed continues to increase.

"My colleagues and I are hearing different financial questions from people now than we did a few years ago," says Kathy Sweedler, University of Illinois Extension Educator. "This is a very difficult time for people financially and their financial situations are often complicated. They may need a wide range of different kinds of financial advice, and they need to know how to find a reliable adviser for their particular needs."

Before you start working with a financial professional it is worth taking the time to compare two or three financial professionals in order to choose someone who is a good match for you. Be aware that anyone can call themselves a financial advisor! You want to choose someone who has appropriate education and experience. Interview financial professionals and ask many questions. University of Illinois Extension's website Choosing a Financial Professional, http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/financialpro/, discusses how to evaluate a financial professional's credentials and explains how different financial professionals are paid. At this website you can download a free interview guide.

Unemployment, and the problems that that arise with reduced income, is a very stressful situation. One out of eight households with a mortgage is currently delinquent on their home loan or in foreclosure. According to Sweedler, "We know that people are especially vulnerable to fraud during times of stress."

"If you're having trouble paying your mortgage payments, contact a qualified housing counselor, Sweedler recommends. She suggests visiting HUD's website at www.hud.gov or calling (800) 569-4287 for a list of qualified housing counselors.

When purchasing investments, take a few simple steps to protect yourself. Before you invest, take time to check that both the investment and the person selling the investment are legitimate.

1. Check that the investment option you're interested in is registered with your state's securities regulator. If it is not registered, then this is likely a fake investment. Don't invest!
2. Who is selling you the investment? Check the financial professional's background and references. In Illinois, a simple way to check on an investment option or a person's licenses and disciplinary records is to call the Illinois Securities Department, toll-free 1-800-628-7937 or visit their website at http://www.cyberdriveillinois.com/departments/securities/.

For more information on how to recognize and avoid investment fraud, visit the Plan Well, Retire Well: Your how-to guide website at www.RetireWell.uiuc.edu.

On August 20, many provisions of the new credit card law took effect to help consumers better understand the workings of their credit cards. The new law contains the biggest changes the credit card industry has seen in decades. Below are several highlights from the new law.

Limited interest rate hikes

Interest-rate hikes have become more controlled and will only be allowed under certain circumstances (such as the end of a promotional rate). Because of this change, credit card companies must give at least 45 days a notice before changing the rate on their cards. Universal default (raising interest rates based on payment record with other forms of unrelated credit, such as a utility company,) will also end.

More time to make your payment

Consumers will now be given a reasonable amount of time to make monthly payments. Payments will be due at least 21 days after the bill is mailed. Credit card companies will no longer be able to set early morning or unreasonable deadlines for payments. Deadlines before 5 p.m. on the payment due date will be illegal. Also, payments that are due on a weekend, holiday or any day the company is closed for business, will not be subject to a late fee.

Limits on over-limit fees

Consumers have the right to decide if they want to pay over-limit fees or not. This does not mean they can argue over the charge. What it does mean is that they will be given the option of receiving over-limit fees and allowing themselves to purchase something that exceeds their credit card limits. If they choose not to receive these fees, any transactions exceeding your credit limit will be denied.

Minimum Payments

Credit card companies are now required to let consumers know the consequences of making only the minimum payment each month. They will have to tell you how long it will take to pay off the entire balance if you only make that minimum payment. They must also tell you how much they will have to pay each month to pay off their credit cards in 12, 24 or 36 months, including interest. Remember, the more a personchargers, the more he or she has to pay off.

These are just a few of the highlights to the new law. To read the law in its entirety, click on the following link: http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/assets/credit-card-act.pdf