Mark your calendar for August 19—at 5:00 p.m.! The Macon County Extension corn and bean plot tour has a new time and format. You are invited to tour the corn and bean plots along Riley Road southeast of Elwin from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m. Beginning at 5:30 p.m. seed company representatives will have displays in the Snow International Airport hanger at John Snow's home, south of the seed plots. Supper will be served at 6:00 p.m. Jim Snow has been the cooperator for the Extension seed plot in Macon County for over 20 years.

The program will begin at 6:45 p.m. Dr. Parry Dixon, ADM's director of grain market research will discuss the dynamics affecting corn and bean markets. Other presentations will be given by Extension crops educator Dennis Bowman about crop production issues and Jim Snow discussing details of this year's seed plots.

Golden Harvest Seeds provided the check hybrid for the corn plot and Kitchen Seed Company provided the soybean plot check variety. The seed companies play a key role in the ability of Extension to put on the plot demonstration and hold the plot tour. Only through their efforts and the efforts of the Snow Family could this event be held. Plan to attend the plot tour and learn about hybrids and varieties that will be available to you next year.

Based on the June 30 Acreage report and crop conditions in early July, the World Outlook Board projects the average yield at a record 142.7 bushels per acre, 4.1 bushels above the current record yield of 1994. Production is forecast at 10.27 billion bushels, 11.4 percent larger than the 2002 crop and 2.1 percent larger than the June projection. Production of other feed grains (sorghum, oats, and barley) is expected to be nearly 28 percent larger than in 2002.

At modest price levels, consumption of U.S. corn during the 2003-04 marketing year is expected to be 340 million bushels more than during the current year. Exports are expected to jump by 250 million bushels as Chinese shipments decline. Food, seed, and industrial use is expected to increase by 190 million bushels as ethanol production expands. Feed and residual use, however, is expected to decline by 100 million bushels due to fewer hogs, increased feeding of sorghum, and increased use of feed byproducts from ethanol production.

September 1, 2004 corn stocks are projected at 1.339 billion bushels, 330 million more than projected for September 1, 2003. The marketing year average price is projected in a range of $1.90 to $2.30, compared to $2.30 projected for the current year. An average at the mid-point of $2.10, would result in a counter-cyclical payment of $.22 for the 2003 crop. If the large crop does materialize, cash prices for the new crop may remain below the loan rate into harvest, resulting in some loan deficiency payments.

For soybeans, the World Outlook Board projects an average 2003 yield of 39.7 bushels, the same as projected last month, and a crop of 2.885 billion bushels, 30 million larger than the June projection. The increase reflects the larger acreage reported on June 30. The USDA projects a 40 million bushel drop in U.S. soybean exports during the 2003-04 marketing year as South America continues to increase market share. The 2004 South American crop (not yet planted) is projected at 3.57 billion bushels, nearly 6 percent larger than the record 2003 crop. Area is expected to increase by 9 percent in Brazil and 5 percent in Argentina.

The domestic soybean crush is projected to increase by a modest 15 million bushels during the year ahead, reflecting weak export demand for oil and meal. With feed, seed, and residual use at a normal level, close to 170 million bushels, total consumption of U.S. soybeans during the year ahead is projected at 2.784 billion bushels, resulting in a projected 105 million bushel increase in inventory. The 2003-04 marketing year average price is projected in a range of $4.35 to $5.35, compared to $5.50 for the current year. An average at the mid-point of $4.85, would result in a $.36 counter cyclical payment for the 2003 crop.

The negative impact on producers from lower average prices projected for the 2003-04 marketing year for wheat, corn, and soybeans will likely be more than offset by higher average yields and counter cyclical payments. In addition, stocks in the U.S. are not expected to build to burdensome levels, providing opportunity for higher prices in the last half of the marketing year.

- By Dr. Darrel Good, U of I Extension Specialist

Farmland values in Illinois have been increasing since 1987. Low interest rates, increasing cash rent payments, the growing size of farm operations (economies of scale), and government crop payment subsidies have contributed to this increase.

The following table shows the increase in land values by assigning an index value for each year:

Land Value Index Table (USDA)

Year	Index
1949	9
1959	17
1969	27
1979	100
1993	83
1994	90
1995	98
1996	102
1997	107
1998	115
1999	121
2000	128
2001	136
2002	142

The year 1979 was given an index rating of 100. Last year, 2002 was given a rating of 142. This means land purchased in 1979 would have on average been worth 42% more in 2002 (142-100). Land purchased in 1999 with an index rating of 121 would have on average been worth 21% more in 2002 than in 1979 (121-100). Information on 2003 farmland is not yet available.

For the Complete Farmland Value Index:

www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/land_value.html

Example:

In 1979 a farm was purchased for $1000 per acre.

What is the approximate value in 2002?

• 2002 Index Value minus 1979 Index Value= % increase
• 142 (2002) - 100 (1979) = 42% increase in value of the farm.
• $1000 (original price) x 42% = $420
• 2002 estimated price = $1420 ($1000 + $420) Original Price Plus Increase in Value

These figures are for estimating only. The value of farmland will vary based upon economic conditions. For more help in estimating the value of your farm, University of Illinois Extension can help. The University has a tool available that compiles farmland sales information in each county going back to 1979. This tool can be accessed on the Internet. The Illinois Farmland Historic Transaction Database can be downloaded at at: www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/fasttools. Excel software is required to use this spreadsheet.

USDA's recent crop report included statistics on the number of Cornbelt farms which planted Bt corn this year, either for corn borers, corn rootworm, or other Bt biotech hybrids. As indicated by the table, Illinois farmers generally reflected the average of the Cornbelt. Iowa was a bit more dedicated to Bt hybrids because of the higher volume of corn that is fed to livestock, instead of processed. Indiana was a bit more conservative on Bt planting.

Note the percent of farms, which planted more than 80 percent of their corn acreage in Bt, despite the widely noted recommendation that 20 percent of corn acreage must not be planted to Bt.

Recent trade developments indicate the European Union will be accepting biotech grains, however, with more restrictive labeling laws, the rate of acceptance may still be unknown. Some Bt hybrids are accepted in Europe, but not all. Before planting Bt hybrids in 2004, consult with your market to know which will be accepted.

Farms with 200 or more acres of corn, by percent of acres planted to Bt varieties, Selected States, 2002 1/ 2/ 3/

State	IL	IN	IA	10 Cornbelt States
Number of farms surveyed	21,990	9,170	23,020	102,540
Farms with 0% Bt	47.4	76.6	35.7	45.2
Farms with 0-80% Bt	49.1	22.9	57.1	47.8
Farms with 80-99% Bt	2.5	0	2.5	3.3
Farms with 100% Bt	1.0	0.5	4.7	3.6
Farms with some Bt	52.6	23.4	64.3	54.8

1. Bt corn refers to all varieties which contain the Bt gene including stacked gene varieties.
2. Number of farms rounded to the nearest 10. Percents may not add due to rounding.
3. These 10 States have consistent refuge requirements.

Ten states were included in this special analysis: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Combined, these states planted 61.3 million acres of corn in 2002, which represents 77% of the total corn planted area in the U.S. Of these 61.3 million acres, 45.1 (74%) of corn was planted with non-Bt varieties and 16.2 million acres (26%) to varieties containing the Bt gene.

Our research efforts with Japanese beetles this summer have resulted in some frustration. We placed insecticide efficacy trials in several fields that had high grub densities, but we found no differences in stand counts and plant heights among insecticide treatments and untreated checks. We also are monitoring the emergence of the beetles throughout the summer using cages with Japanese beetle lures. The beetles are emerging from the soil, but for some reason they don't seem to be attracted to the lures. In a greenhouse study, we found no differences in plant height, plant weight, or root weight among plants infested with different densities (0 to 6 per plant) of grubs. We expected plants infested with low grub densities to perform better than those with high densities. We suspect that the grubs may have fed on organic matter in the soil, rather than on the plants.

Japanese beetles have baffled us thus far, but we remain optimistic. We have modified several aspects of our procedures, and we already have begun planning our research for 2004. We will repeat the insecticide efficacy trials and the grub density study in the greenhouse, and we will monitor the emergence patterns of the beetles next summer, hopefully with re-designed emergence cages. Regardless of the results, any information we attain from our research will help us gain a better understanding of this insect pest.

Nathan Wentworth
Graduate Research Assistant
University of Illinois

nwentwor@uiuc.edu

 How much will your corn yield? That question is being answered as this issue of the Resource Review is on the press. Extension is being joined by Farm Business Farm Management to conduct a yield survey of the Macon County corn crop. Teams of farmers and agribusiness folks were sampling corn fields in every township of the county to gauge the size of the 2003 crop. All of the volunteers were using the same measurement procedures to ensure uniformity of the estimate. Without good estimates, it is difficult to determine how much of a crop a producer can reasonably market.

The grain industry and the Chicago Board of Trade already have good estimates of the crop size, and they typically await the USDA's August 1 report (to be released August 12) for confirmation. The local crop survey and the USDA report will be the only reports available to farmers and the general public that indicates the size of the crop.

Only corn was sampled in this initial effort, since beans are still blooming and pod set is not complete. A survey of the size of the local soybean crop will be taken about September 1.