Corn rootworm and Asian rust are probably high on your revenue radar screen, and University of Illinois Extension wants to help you get a clear picture of those issues in 2005. Extension is collaborating with Richland Community College and the Macon County Farm Bureau to answer your questions on rootworm and rust on December 14 at 6:00 PM in the Shilling Auditorium at Richland. This is an opportunity for farmers and landowners to hear the latest on Asian rust and rootworm resistant varieties of corn.

The speakers include Extension's Suzanne Bissonnette, Dennis Bowman, and Paul Mariman and ADM's Brian Burke. Dr. Suzanne Bissonnette, Integrated Pest Management Educator for University of Illinois Extension, is the Asian rust research program coordinator for the University of Illinois. She will tell you what it is and what to look for, as well as be able to answer most any question about the management of this fungus.

Dennis Bowman, Extension Crop Specialist will address the issue of how to control corn rootworm, in the wake of the 2004 infestation. He will talk about the insecticides, and Bt or rootworm resistance corn varieties.

Brian Burke, ADM's merchandising manager for its Corn Processing Division, will provide information on the currently acceptable corn varieties for export to the continent of Europe. Although the EU recently approved Roundup Ready corn, the EU approval of rootworm Bt corn is pending, and Brian will discuss your options.

Paul Mariman, Farm Business and Marketing Educator for the Macon Extension Unit, will provide a financial analysis for various actions that might be considered to manage rust and rootworms in 2005.

Pre-Registration is encouraged so that sufficient materials are available. Please register by calling Extension at 877-6042. Walk-ins are welcome, but handouts may not be available.

Confirmation

in several states raises concern of potential impact of this disease in Illinois

As widely reported earlier in November, Asian soybean rust was confirmed for the first time in the continental U.S. Soybean rust is a fungal disease that infects leaves and can cause defoliation and significant yield losses. The soybean rust reported in Louisiana was Asian soybean rust, the aggressive species of rust (Phakopspora pachyrhizi), not the relatively mild American soybean rust (P. meibomiae).

As has been said many times, "Its not if soybean rust will arrive in the continental U.S, but when it will arrive." Now we know when for the Continental U.S., but we still do not know when it will arrive in Illinois – it may be in 2005 or not for another few years. Nor do we know how much damage it can or will cause in Illinois. The yield losses in Illinois may be significant, but also may be much less significant than some have suggested. There are many questions that will not be answered before this disease arrives in Illinois. Regardless, the risk of soybean rust occurring in Illinois in 2005 has now increased substantially with the discovery in Louisiana.

A few key things to note:

· The Illinois Department of Agriculture, along with a team of representatives from several federal and state agencies, and University of Illinois Extension has developed a plan of action (Illinois Soybean Rust Program) to diagnose and manage Asian soybean rust if it arrives in Illinois. This plan can be found on the web site: www.agr.state.il.us/regulation/soybeanrustprogram.pdf.

· Soybean rust is not expected to survive over the winter in Illinois or adjoining states. Spores of this pathogen must be carried by the wind annually from infected plants in the far south to initiate infections in the Illinois soybean crop. Some models suggest the overwintering sites of soybean rust may be restricted to the gulf coasts of Florida and southern Texas, or in Mexico.

· The climate over much of Illinois will not always be favorable for widespread and severe soybean rust epidemics.

· Management of soybean rust will be dependent in the next few years on judicious use of fungicides. The appropriate fungicides applied properly at the correct time have been shown to control rust in other countries. Applications at the earliest time possible after rust is detected will be most effective. At least 3 different fungicides should be available for soybean rust management if they are needed in Illinois for the 2005 crop. The EPA has an additional 9 fungicides prepared for licensing should they be needed.

· Highly resistant soybean varieties will probably not be available for a number of years; however, there may be varieties available sooner that have tolerance or partial resistance to soybean rust.

· Much more information on soybean rust will be presented at conferences and workshops organized by University of Illinois Extension this coming winter.

The Illinois Crop Protection Technology Conference will have sessions on soybean rust in depth. Register at: http://cptc.ipm.uiuc.edu/. Soybean rust will also be covered at the Southern Illinois Crop Management Conference in Effingham on Feb. 8-9, the Central Illinois Crop Management Conference in Jacksonville on Feb 22-23, and Northern Illinois Crop Management Conference in Malta on March 1-2, 2005. Contact us to learn of more about educational programs that will cover soybean rust.

What are the risks of soybean rust arriving in Illinois in 2005 and causing considerable damage in Illinois? There is no way we can know for sure, there are too many environmental, biological and other factors involved to predict this with any degree of certainty. The following report provides a useful outlook on the risks of soybean rust arriving in the upper Midwest and how much damage it may cause. This report was developed by the USDA-Economic Research Service on the 'Economic and Policy Implications of Wind-Borne Entry of Asian Soybean Rust into the United States' http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/OCS/APR04/OCS04D02/ . "This report examines how the economic impacts of soybean rust establishment will depend on the timing, location, spread, and severity of rust infestation and on how soybean and other crop producers, livestock producers, and consumers of agricultural commodities respond to this new pathogen." The risks appear to be different in different parts of Illinois and will not be the same every year.

Dr. X.B. Yang from Iowa State University suggests that the incidence and severity of soybean rust in the spring in the southern U.S may be an indicator of whether this disease will become a problem in Illinois or Iowa later in the season. Two factors to consider are that to our knowledge, there have been no widespread and severe plant disease epidemics in their first year of detection after introduction into the U.S, and that its likely that before an epidemic will occur in Illinois it will take time for the rust pathogen to increase its population in the south to a sufficient amount in order to be spread to north.

USDA Soybean Rust Web site:

http://www.aphis.usda.gov/lpa/issues/sbr/sbr.html

Plant Heath Initiative site:

www.planthealth.info/rust/rust.htm

Soybean Rust: Is the US Soybean Crop At Risk? www.apsnet.org/online/feature/rust/

Soybean Rust Backgrounder from the American Soybean Association.

www.soygrowers.com/rust/default.htm

Information compiled by the UIUC Department of Crop Sciences,

http://www.cropsci.uiuc.edu/

An insight into 2005

Bryce Knorr, Senior Editor of the Farm Futures Magazine spoke to the Macon County Extension Marketing Club providing some economic perspectives into 2005. Knorr pointed out that in addition to the record harvest corn crop, there is a great deal of feed grade wheat in the world market that would put additional pressure on the corn market.

He said, "Soybeans are in abundance and South America has discovered the miracle of storage." Knorr explained the large inventories of oil seed available throughout the world and that there are still large inventories of soybeans in South America. The inventories are going to be factor in the price of grain for the next year.

Knorr said Nitrogen costs may not go down from there current levels. He said it takes over 33 million cubic feet of natural gas to make 1 ton of anhydrous ammonia and every $1 increase in natural gas prices is a $34 increase per ton for anhydrous ammonia.

Interest rates are increasing and based on the direction of the bond market the rates would likely increase into 2005; which Knorr said makes operating loans and long-term loans more expensive.

Knorr had the following suggestions for 2005:

· Lock down interest rates for long term debt to take advantage of the current rates.

· Be an aggressive seller of 2005 corn during early spring rallies.

· Aggressively market soybeans for 2005 in the first quarter rallies.

With the writing of the current farm bill came a new set of rules and regulations that govern the administration of the program. It has become apparent that a consolidation of the USDA definitions on entities and leases has created a problem on Variable Cash Rent Leases. This includes any cash rent lease that has a bonus clause in it. At a recent Farm Business Farm Management meeting, staff members from the USDA-FSA office in Springfield outlined their interpretation of the rules.

The USDA now defines a variable cash rent lease as a risk participation lease for the landowner. The landowner is at risk for increased payments if the crop does well or possibly a reduction in rent if the crop does poorly. The at-risk participation lease requires that the landowner receive a portion of the government payments. If you have the farm signed up a 100 percent of the payments to the tenant and 0 percent to the landowner, you are in violation of the USDA rules.

Most FSA offices have not realized the impact of this rule change or have not gone back into the files to determine whom this affects. It is assumed that these violations will be discovered through random audits of FSA accounts. The penalty for being in violation is required repayment of all benefits received from the USDA-FSA for the farm in violation for all years involved.

If you have a variable cash rent lease, it will be to your advantage to discuss the terms of your lease with your landowner, tenant, or farm manager before you are found to be in violation. You will need to plan a course of action to correct the situation to avoid being in violation with these new rules. This may involve the rewriting of the current lease or a different method of farm rental.

- Robert Daggett, FBFM Fieldman