Dr. Elwynn Taylor, professor of Agricultural Meteorology at Iowa State University suggested a marketing plan based on the risk of a bad crop year. Dr. Taylor examined the historical data on weather and found that; 23 % of the time the US Corn Yield is over 10% above the trend line yield; 31% of the time the yield is from 0 to 10% above the trend line yield; 29% of the time at trend line to 10 % below: and that only 17% of the time the yield is 10% below the trend line. Dr. Taylor also started that prices tend to be higher in the spring time frame before the crop is planted.

This statement agrees with research done by Dr. Good and Dr. Irvin in which they looked at the12 month before harvest and the twelve after harvest to examine when was the best time to sell grain. Their research found that the twelve months before harvest generally provided more income in the form of higher prices.

Dr. Taylor suggests, based on the historical information, that farmers should market 23% of their crop (5 year average production) before it is planted in the spring. This is represented by the 23% of the time the US is high above the trend line yield. The next sales and additional 60% should occur between planting and the first of August. This would represent the likely hood of the yield being near trend line averages. With the last sale of the remaining 17% sold between August 1 through harvest.

Dr. Taylor stated that this would place the average price for grain in the top 10% of prices for the year. Dr Taylor suggested that you make a chart for an individual farm based on the number of times the farm yield is above the farm trend line and below trend line yields to fine tune your marketing program.

Illinois Farm Business Farm Management just released the "Crops 2005" data, including actual numbers of the cost of production from farms in Illinois. The first table below provides information on high soil productivity farms and the second table provides information on farms that have poorer quality soils.

In comparing 2004 to the 2005 corn input costs in every category increased. The corn input costs of the soil fertility, pesticides, and seed increases about 14% or approximately $20 per acre. Soil fertility had the highest increased cost of an additional $10 to $12 per acre. Seed cost increased approximately $5 per acre and Pesticides increased $3 to $5 per acre. Most of the increases in energy prices over the last year had their impact in the production of fertilizer. The cost of fuel machinery repair, and hired machinery only increased $2 per acre.

Soybeans input costs increased in soil fertility, pesticides, and seed over 11% on lower productivity soils and over 16% on higher productivity soils. The cost of fuel, machinery repair, and hired machinery only increased $1 to $2 per acre.

The increase in input cost and the lower yields for the 2005 year increased the total cost per bushel in all soil types. The cost for high productivity soils for corn to $2.95 and for soybeans $6.67 and the cost for lower productivity soils were corn at $3.05 and soybeans at $6.82. These costs over the past four years have averaged high productivity soils for corn $2.74, soybeans $7.20 and low productivity and low productivity soils for corn $2.75, soybeans $7.26.