The 2005 US corn crop is now estimated at 11.112 billion bushels, 80 million larger than the November forecast. At 147.9 bushels, the US average yield estimate is 0.5 bushels below the November forecast, but the estimate of harvested acreage is 774,000 above the November forecast. Stocks of corn on December 1, 2005 were estimated at 9.183 billion bushels, 361 million larger than stocks of a year earlier. December 1 stocks were second in size to the 10.3 billion of 1986. Consumption of corn during the first quarter of the 2005-06 marketing year was a record 3.417 billion bushels, 105 million more than consumption of a year ago. Exports during the quarter were off 15 million from the previous year, but domestic processing use of corn was up about 65 million and feed and residual use was up by 55 million bushels.

The calculation of first quarter feed and residual use of 2.227 billion bushels exceeded expectations and prompted the USDA to raise the forecast of use for the year by 125 million bushels, to a total of 6 billion. The slow start to the export program this year resulted in a 50 million bushel reduction in the projection of exports for the year. At 1.85 billion bushels, the projected level of exports is only 36 million above the disappointing exports of last year. The estimated size of the 2005 Chinese corn crop was increased by nearly 160 million bushels (3 percent), but the larger crop is expected to lead to larger year ending stocks, not larger exports than projected last month. Year ending stocks of US corn are now projected at 2.426 billion bushels, only 7 million above the December projection, but still the largest in 18 years.

The 2005 US soybean crop is estimated at 3.086 billion bushels, 43 million larger than the November forecast and only 38 million less than the record crop of 2004. The US average yield is estimated at a record 43.3 bushels, 0.6 bushels above the November forecast and 1.1 bushels above the previous record established last year. Stocks of soybeans on December 1, 2005 were estimated at a record 2.5 billion bushels, nearly 200 million above the inventory of a year ago. Consumption of US soybeans during the first quarter of the 2005-2006 marketing year totaled only 840 million bushels, 92 million less than consumption during the same quarter last year. Compared to last year's use, the domestic crush during the quarter was up 15 million and feed and residual use was down 17 million bushels. Exports during the quarter totaled only 316 million bushels, 90 million less than shipments of a year ago.

Based on the poor performance during the first quarter and the modest level of current unshipped sales, the USDA reduced the projection of marketing year soybean exports by 70 million bushels. At 950 million, the export projection is 153 million bushels below last year's record shipments. The projection of the domestic crush during the current marketing year was increased by 10 million bushels. At 1.73 billion, the projection is 34 million bushels larger than the crush of a year ago. The larger crush is being driven by an increase in domestic meal consumption and a lower yield of meal per bushel of soybeans. The oil yield from the 2005 crop is record large, resulting n a forecast of a sharp increase in domestic soybean oil stocks by year end. Year end stocks of soybeans are also expected to be much larger than in recent history. At 505 million bushels, the projection of year ending stocks is 100 million above the December projection and the second largest on record. Stocks were record large in 1986, totaling 536 million bushels at year end.

The USDA increased the estimates of soybean production and stocks in Brazil for the 2004 and 2005 crops, resulting in a larger projection of year ending stocks in 2006 event though the 2006 production estimate was not changed. World stocks of soybeans are expected to increase to a record 1.95 billion bushels, about 300 million larger than the inventory at the start of the year.

The increase in prices in late December and early January, particularly for soybeans, did not seem warranted based on known fundamental factors. Fundamental factors are even more negative now. While soybean prices have declined about $.60 since January 4, additional declines might be expected unless the South American crop comes under significant stress. However, prices of both corn and soybeans are expected to become more volatile in the spring, offering another pricing opportunity.

- Darrell Good, Extension Economist University of Illinois

This March 1, 2006 workshop has two sessions that will aid farmers in making crop insurance and grain marketing decisions for 2006. The morning session is free of charge and will provide updated information useful in choosing between alternative crop insurance products followed by a discussion on crop storage analysis and pre-harvest marketing strategies.

The afternoon session has a cost of $45. A microcomputer lab will be used to provide hands-on experience with FAST. Programs for evaluating grain elevator selection and crop storage decisions will be demonstrated. Participants will use the FAST Risk Model to analyze crop insurance and marketing choices. This model shows how crop insurance products and marketing strategies would have performed historically. In order to facilitate the computerized training, the afternoon session is limited to 25 participants. All participants in the afternoon session will receive a FAST CD, workshop notes, and a subscription to FAST. FAST are a suite of Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that help farmers evaluate various aspects of a farm business.

The presenters for the day are: Gary Schnitkey, Professor, University of Illinois, Paul Mariman, Extension Educator, at the Macon Office, and Travis Farley, Fast Educator University of Illinois, Urbana.

Agenda

Session One- Free

10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.

Crop Insurance Decisions

Review of products

Changes for 2006

Grain Marketing Decisions

Grain Elevator selection

Crop storage decisions

Pre-harvest marketing

Session Two - $45

12:00 Noon – 1:00 p.m.

Lunch will be provided to those who attend

Session Two

1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Hands-on use of FAST to:

Analyze grain storage decisions

Evaluate grain delivery options

Examine Crop insurance and

Grain marketing decisions.

The morning session is free. The afternoon session is $45.00 per person. If you are attending one of the Farm Financial management Using FAST workshops, a discounted rate of $25.00 will apply. You must be signed up for one of the Farm Financial Management Using FAST workshops to receive this discount. Go to http:// www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu for more details on Farm Financial Management Using FAST.

The Macon County Private Pesticide Applicator Training is on February 7, 2006 at the

4-H center located on the east side of the Macon County Fair Grounds. There is no cost for the training, HOWEVER, please call to reserve a seat so that enough tests are available. The training begins at 6:00 PM with the testing to follow the training. For the 05-06 season, there are about 9,000 Illinois Private Applicators scheduled to recertify (retest every three years). In cooperation with the Illinois Department of Agriculture, University of Illinois Extension is offering 100 Private Applicator training and testing clinics and 30 test-only clinics across the state this season.

This will be the only training session held in Macon County this season. A complete list of the testing sites is available on the web at: http://www.pesticidesafety.uiuc.edu

Agricultural decision-makers have a new place to start their day–"The Farm Gate," an Internet blog updated daily by University of Illinois Extension.

"The Farm Gate is a place to go to find integrated information across a variety of disciplines, including crop and animal sciences, Ag economics, Ag engineering, and veterinary medicine," explained U of I Extension marketing specialist Darrel Good. "These disciplines will be addressed as they meet, intersect and often intertwine to shape the environment in which the Ag community lives and work."

The Farm Gate is located at:

http://www.farmgate.uiuc.edu

Good noted that the "blogger," Stu Ellis, brings unique qualifications and insights to the task. "Stu has been a presence in Illinois agriculture for more than 30 years," said Good. "The key to setting up this blog was finding someone who can write, is interested in the subject matter, and has the broad experience necessary to see connections among seemingly unrelated items."

"Stu has a resource base from land-grant universities, governmental agricultural agencies, and other information sources," said Good. "He will serve as a filter for the most valid, timely, and relevant information found on these sites. He'll synthesize and summarize this information, and provide links to the original articles, as well as other blog sites."

The Farm Gate, Good noted, is a response to a recommendation from farmdoc's (Farm Decision Outreach Central) advisory board.

Recent postings on the blog by Ellis include such topics as 2006 cropping decisions, the recent federal budget reconciliation legislations, tax planning, and ethanol.

The site also includes links to farmdoc and University of Illinois sites focused on integrated pest management, livestock, and agronomy and links to Extension programs in several other states as well.

Comments are also invited from users.