The more you know about the 2002 Farm Bill the more confusing it becomes, say many farmers. One thing that is going to be very important is to sign-up for the program and pick the best option for your operation. There are several choices; and it will take time to examine each one and determine how it will affect your income.

There are numerous spreadsheets and computer programs that have been created by universities and farm organizations to help farmers make informed decisions on which options to choose for the 2002 Farm Bill. The four programs that have received the most attention are the University of Illinois FarmDoc Calculation Tool, Texas A&M on-line service, Illinois Farm Bureau Spreadsheet and the Corn Grower Spreadsheet. In an effort to find out the strengths of each program, Bob Daggett, FBFM Fieldsman, and Paul Mariman, Extension Farm Business Educator, ran the data from three farms through each program and compared the results. They discovered none of the revenue outcomes matched any of the other programs. However, all the programs agreed on which option was the best for each farm.

The National Corn Growers Association (www.ncga.com) was the first to make a program available to the farmers. Bayer and John Deere co-sponsored the program. The program is relatively easy to follow even though there are multiple screens to go through. The final results can be viewed on the monitor, but are difficult to compare because each option appears on a different screen. The best way to view the results is to print them. The results are printed on one sheet of paper and the best option is highlighted.

The Illinois Farm Bureau spreadsheet (www.ilfb.org) is large, (5.6 meg. is the file size). It will take time to download the file on a rural phone line. The program has a significant amount of graphics in the program. The nice thing about the spreadsheet is that you can input the data for up to 15 FSA numbers and look at the results. Although, the program is well written it is a little difficult to follow the data input screens the first time you look at them.

Texas A & M University (www.afpc.tamu.edu) has a program that is run over the Internet. The program is supported by FSA and provides a great deal of information. The input page is user friendly and walks the user through the process in a straightforward, logical manner. The results can be printed out on your home computer, but have plenty of paper available. The Texas A & M program provides lots of results and charts of the different combination of the results and the options available. It does multiple years and even calculates a percentage that a given option works out to be the best. One of the test examples said that the 70% option was best 96% of the time and that the 93.5% option was correct 4% of the time. If you would like to have all the "what ifs" this is the program you want to run. Just remember, because it is on line it will take a little patience running over a phone modem.

The University of Illinois Extension spreadsheet is available on the Farm Doc web site (www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu). It can be downloaded from the web and is reasonably sized to download over a 56k modem. The program's strength and weakness both is that it is small. It is very straightforward, very easy to use, but it does not give you a lot of extra information. The program basically tells you what the payment dollars might be and which is your best option. It provides just the facts; and that is a feature that many farmers will like especially in the face of a relatively complicated Farm Bill for 2002.

In comparing the four programs the Texas A & M provided the most information for projections over the life of the Farm Bill, however, if you are looking for a quick, simple program then the University of Illinois Farm Doc version would be the one to use.

The USDA's September report of U.S. and world crop prospects contained no major surprises. At 8.849 billion bushels, the U.S. corn crop projection was 37 million bushels smaller than the August projection, even though the U.S. average yield estimate was increased by 0.2 bushels, to 125.4 bushels. Stocks of U.S. corn at the end of the 2002-03 marketing year are expected to be a meager 729 million bushels, the lowest level in 7 years.

Compared to the year just ended, the USDA projects a 225 million bushel reduction in feed and residual use of corn during the current marketing year, a 115 million bushel increase in domestic processing use of corn, and a 100 million bushel increase in U.S. exports. The USDA's December 1 Grain Stocks report, to be released in early January, will reveal the rate of domestic feed and residual use of corn during the first quarter of the 2002-03 marketing year. That report will be important in determining if corn prices are generating the necessary adjustments in use.

The projected increase in U.S. corn exports reflects expectations of a small increase in world consumption and a decline in exports from Argentina. Chinese exports are expected to increase by 59 million bushels (19 percent) due to a 433 million bushel (10 percent) increase in production. At 2.656 billion bushels, the USDA's September projection of the U.S. soybean crop was 28 million bushels larger than the August projection. A small reduction in the projection of harvested acreage was more than offset by an increase in the expected yield. The U.S. average yield is now projected at 37 bushels per acre, 0.5 bushels above the August projection, but 2.6 bushels below the 2001 average yield.

For the current U.S. marketing year, the USDA projects a 215 million bushel (20 percent) decline in exports and a 25 million bushel (1.5 percent) decline in the domestic soybean crush. The decline in consumption is being required by the smaller crop. Year ending stocks are expected to total only 160 million bushels, the lowest level in 6 years. For the year October 2002 through September 2003, the USDA expects South American exports to total 1.25 billion bushels, 367 million bushels more than exported in the previous 12 months.

The relatively high level of prices, the lack of carry in the corn and soybean price structure, and the absence of loan deficiency payments all favor harvest sales of corn and soybeans. However, the tightness in the balance sheets, the uncertainty about the South American growing season, and the need for large crops in the northern hemisphere next year suggest that some ownership should be maintained into the winter and spring months. Speculating on higher prices by storing the crops is relatively expensive. Basis contracts or ownership of futures may be less expensive, but not all producers are willing to use these tools. The CCC loan provides cash flow for those who choose to store part of the crop.

Harvest season means an increase in farm machinery traffic on rural highways. As farmers rush to start and then to meet harvest deadlines, vehicles and farm machinery can create a lethal mix on the road. The following operating procedures recommended by Bob Aherin, University of Illinois Extension agricultural safety specialist will help reduce the risk of farm equipment operators of being involved in a roadway crash:

• Farmers should mark the back of all farm equipment with a retro-reflective slow moving vehicle emblem and should mark the extremities and all sides of farm equipment with retro-reflective tape. Research has shown that mounting at least one but preferably two flashing, amber lights that are visible to both the front and rear of equipment and mounted as far right and left as possible, can enhance visibility.
• Farmers should use proper lighting and turn signals when moving farm equipment on the road. Illinois law requires that farm equipment moved at night must at minimum have at least have two white headlights visible to the front, two red taillights visible for 1000 feet to the front and rear and one flashing amber light mounted as high as practical.
• It is recommended that flashing amber warning lights visible to the front and back be mounted on the far right and left of implements so other motorists can identify the winds of the equipment.
• Farmers should put all equipment into transport position prior to exiting the field. This means folding the wings of hydraulic operated extremities and transporting combine headers on trailers.
• Do not operate farm equipment on public roadways in poor visibility conditions such as fog, heavy rain and high levels of dust. Visibility should be at least 1000 feet for other drivers to be able to easily identify a slow moving piece of equipment and take necessary aversive actions.
• While farm machinery operators have the legal right to operate equipment on public roads (except interstate highways) they must provide the right of way to other motorists traveling in the opposite lane of traffic on two lane roadways. This means farm equipment operators must pull over and let on coming traffic pass if any portion of their equipment is in the left lane of traffic. If this is not possible the only solution is to provide escort vehicles to warn on coming traffic approaching from both the front and rear.

Remember, following these road safety rules can prevent your harvest drive from becoming a one-way trip.

With harvest season getting underway, farmers are urged to take note of electrical lines when moving equipment like portable grain augers, oversized wagons and large combines, and to use a qualified electrician for electrical system repairs.

"Equipment contacting overhead power lines is the leading cause of farm electrocution accidents in the Midwest," said Bob Aherin, University of Illinois Agricultural Safety Specialist. "Moving portable grain augers poses the greatest risk because those who are the ground moving the equipment would provide a direct path for electricity if there's a contact with overhead wires."

"Always lower grain augers before moving them, even if it's only a few feet. Variables like wind, uneven ground, shifting weight or other conditions can combine to create an unexpected result," Aherin said.

Farm workers also are advised not to use metal poles when breaking up bridged grain inside and around bins and to use qualified electricians for work on drying equipment and other farm electrical systems.

It's also important for operators of farm equipment or vehicles to know what to do if the vehicle comes in contact with a power line. It's almost always best to stay in the cab, call for help and wait until the electric utility arrives to make sure power to the line is cut off.

"If the power line is energized and you step outside, your body becomes the path and electrocution is the result," Aherin said. "Even if a power line has landed on the ground, there is still the potential for the area nearby to be energized. Stay inside the vehicle unless there's fire or imminent risk of fire."

In that case, the proper action is to jump - not step - with both feet hitting the ground at the same time. Jump clear, without touching the vehicle and ground at the same time and continue to shuffle or hop to safety keeping both feet together as you leave the area.

"Like the ripples in a pond or lake, the voltage diminishes the farther out it is from the source," Aherin said. "Stepping from one voltage level to another allows the body to become a path for that electricity. A large difference in voltage between both feet could kill you.

"Be sure that at no time you or anyone touches the equipment and the ground at the same time. Never should the operator simply step out of the vehicle—the person must jump clear."