Monday's USDA acreage and stocks numbers are now history, but the facts will continue to impact the market. IL Extension's Darrel Good says the slow down in corn use will raise carryout at least 100 mil. bu. above the 1.433 bil. predicted in the June supply/demand report, and higher corn acres will mean less rationing than expected.
Soybeans told a different story in Good's thinking, "Production may fall short of the 3.1 bil. bushels projected earlier by USDA, keeping stocks extremely tight for another year. For the next two months, prices will be all about US weather." Read his latest newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/063008.html .
How does your budget compare to typical farm families? The 1,232 IL farm families surveyed reported $5,025 monthly non-capital 2007 family living expenses. That is nearly 10% higher than 2006. Adding capital expenditures, the annual cost was $66,412. The high one-third averaged $103,668 and the low one-third averaged $45,517.
Over the past 4 years, farm receipts rose from $351,327 in 2004 to $440,952 in 2007. Net income from non farm sources was $17,491 in 2004, but had climbed to $31,668 in 2007. Borrowed money rose from $246,556 in 2004 to $306,747 in 2007. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_12/fefo08_12.html .
Similar data from southern and western MN, and based on $74,804 family living cost, identified minimums that it would take to cover that cost: 890 A of corn, 970 A of beans, 369 A of hay, 4,308 head of farrow to finish hogs, 10,717 head of wean to finish hogs, 6,438 head of finish feeder pigs, 16,586 head of hogs in a contract finishing program, 831 head of feeder calves, 948 cows in a cow-calf operation, and 127 dairy cows. Read more at: http://www.cffm.umn.edu/Publications/pubs/FarmMgtTopics/earnlvgfarm.pdf .
If June weather stressed the corn crop, Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says it will show up in ear size, "If we have a16 row hybrid ear that was stressed at the 4-leaf stage it may turn out as a 14 or 12 row ear. There is some offset in that ideal conditions from 8 leaf to 14 leaf (or to tassel if that comes first) can produce a longer potential ear and good weather from silking to dough can realize the longer row potential."
Those "ideal conditions," may be in the forecast of Jim Noel at Ohio State. He says the risk is toward wetter weather the next 20-30 days with temperatures close to average. Noel says there is minimal risk of hot dry weather, but some risk toward cool and wet. For the coming week, he expects early week rains, with storms the following week.
"Looking back at significant spring La Nina events," Jim Noel at Ohio State says, "On the whole it yields cool and dry springs after wet winters. However, if we strip out 1988 and 1955 drought La Nina years, we find the other years are cool and wet into the summer. What this tells us is the North Atlantic Oscillation plays a role, and La Nina has a negative impact toward either dry or wet but not very supportive toward agriculture."
The battery is dying on the degree-day clock and it is losing time. Cooler than normal temperatures and continued wet soils are causing crops to struggle, and Extension specialists in Iowa report a lag of 10-25 degree days behind the long term averages. They anticipate crops to recover as the summer wears on, but only if the degree-days catch up.
The 2007 Farm Bill is clearly designed to help farmers manage risk, not raise income, says Ohio State ag economist Carl Zulauf. He says the ACRE program and the disaster program are consistent with the current environment of high farm income and high farm price variability. And he said with the large number of new programs dedicated to fruits and vegetables, the only large acreage crop that does not now receive support is hay.
But is it a Farm Bill? Ohio State's Zulauf says he is astounded by the breadth and depth of the new farm policy. He says over time, they have grown progressively larger and more comprehensive, and, "This one is a wide ranging omnibus bill." Zulauf says, "It raises the question of whether or not it is appropriate to continue calling it the Farm Bill."
Compared to corn after beans, how is your corn after corn doing? Iowa State researchers say it is not doing well in their state. They say plant height is not related to yield and there is a lot of growing season to go, so how will yields perform this year? 1) With climatic stress, corn following corn yields less than if it had followed beans. 2) Yields will drop from allelopathy, inadequate early N, lower biological activity. 3) Corn pathogens will remain in the soil and cause seedling disease the next year. 4) Permanent corn rootworm populations grow and stunt early growth of corn.
Repaired corn fields will have some unusual dynamics says IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger. The early corn will compete well for water and do well in heat, and will lower the yields on the nearby repaired ponds. If the original corn was left, populations will be higher than normal, and there will be more competition for water and lower yields.
Nafziger says soil conditions were not very good at planting time, and that will have the most impact on the root systems of corn plants. That has been the reason for early afternoon leaf curling, signaling loss of as much water into the air as it is taking out of the ground. He says there is plenty of water in most soils, but some is below the corn roots.
Soybeans have lost a month of sunlight says Nafziger who believes it will be difficult to create a canopy before flowering and pod setting. He says that puts pod numbers at risk, and subsequently reduces yield. Timely rains during July will extend the flowering period and help increase the pod count, so a good yield depends on continued moisture.
Caution should be used in planting corn after July 1 in the northern Cornbelt says Iowa State agronomist Roger Elmore. He says an early frost could lower a 130 bu. yield to 24 bu. Perfect weather and a late fall could generate 130 bu., but you might also have 37% moisture and have to spend money drying grain with expensive energy as he simulated. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/062401RogerElmore.htm .
Corn pest #1. Corn rootworms may be sparse, but damage has been reported to non-Bt hybrids, with larvae maturing and adults ready to emerge. Rain and saturated soils may not have retarded their numbers, but their survival in ponded areas is uncertain says Kevin Steffey at IL Extension. Adult emergence is expected to result in silk clipping.
Corn pest #2. Corn earworms may be feeding in whorls, and not just damaging sweet corn and seed corn. Their timing this year found the perfect vegetative state of most corn fields for corn earworm damage: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=973 . Economic injury thresholds have not been established, and control is rarely justified.
Corn pest #3. Western bean cutworms are just now emerging as adults, and eggs will be placed on the upper surface of corn leaves, where larvae will hatch and move into the whorl to feed on the tassel. They also feed on the ears and will cause economic damage.
Thresholds don't fit well this year, says MO entomologist Wayne Bailey, who noted that late planting has caused crops to be small, so what little foliage exists needs to be protected. Bailey recommends a spray if the extent of defoliation is discomforting.
Use glyphosate in a tank-mix if you are controlling volunteer corn that is resistant; or if you have challenging broadleaves like morningglory which is more easily controlled by other herbicides; or if you have increasing populations of weeds that are glyphosate resistant like giant ragweed, and you need a second spraying with additional herbicides.
Don't use glyphosate in a tank-mix if you are trying to control waterhemp that is already resistant to glyphosate. But the key is the size of the waterhemp, and plants in the 3-5 inch range are sensitive to glyphosate. If it is used with another herbicide in a tank mix, there would be little or no increase in control from the other herbicide.
Performance issues can be reduced in the use of glyphosate, and weed specialist Bob Hartzler at Iowa St. says there are several ways to address those performance issues. 1) It has to be applied timely, and that means before problem weeds are over 4 in. 2) A low rate of application causes problems, so base it on the difficult weeds to control. 3) Environmental stresses on a weed will stop its growth, and that can be when you spray.
If lost N is a concern, Purdue's Bob Nielsen notes, "Many soil fertility specialists in the Midwest suggest adhering to the usual critical level of 25 ppm NO3-N for determining when no additional N is needed after the recent heavy rains. We suggest that this level of soil NO3-N may be insufficient where N loss conditions have been severe. We suggest recent levels of rain have depleted the lower soil profile as well as the upper foot of soil."
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
