A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, June 27. 2008, Vol. 10 No. 10

Start your day at: www.Farmgate.uiuc.edu , a blog for farm decision-makers.

"Your Virtual Research Assistant."

• "No one in the grain trade believes the USDA numbers are accurate," says Kansas State's Mike Woolverton about the acreage and yield estimates in the June Supply Demand report. USDA's projection is 86 mil. acres of corn and 74.8 mil. acres of beans, but those numbers will be adjusted with a flood update Monday, June 30^th when USDA releases its Planted Acreage Report. You can read more from Woolverton's newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• "Yield is even more difficult to forecast this year than acreage," says Woolverton. He adds, "Corn and most soybeans were planted late into cold, wet, compacted soils. All those factors will drag the national average yield down, but no one knows by how much." He projects corn to be pollinating in the heat of the summer, and he says it is too early to be concerned about a national average soybean yield, but he's concerned about frost.
• Woolverton's description of wheat is widely varying yields, reduced test weights, reduced protein content, and higher elevator prices than producers expected to see at harvest time. Kansas City cash wheat is over $9, since wheat has benefited from higher oil prices that have been pulling up corn and soybean prices with the crude oil price.
• Near normal rain and heat are expected over the next month by Ohio State meteorologist Jim Noel. He says there is still a risk for heavier rainfall, but the risk for hot and dry weather is low through the month of July. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#L .
• But near term heat is expected by Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. "Well-established crops are likely to benefit, but heat can stress poorly rooted plants. Generally, temperatures slightly warmer than normal before the 4th of July are of benefit to yield and detrimental to crops thereafter. Rain prospects have declined from the multi-year peak of the past few weeks to near normal. The National Weather Service outlook for July slightly favors temperatures in the coolest 1/3 of all years; which is desirable." He is still forecasting a 148 bu. national average corn crop and a 37 bu. soybean crop.
• Bad spring weather was not limited to your neck of the woods, says NE climatologist Al Dutcher in the NE Cropwatch http://cropwatch.unl.edu/ . He says weather models are drying out, compared to weather trends that caused problems across the Cornbelt:
  1) 83 of the 99 counties in Iowa have been declared disaster areas due to flooding.
  2) In NE an estimated 500-600 center pivot irrigation systems received tornado damage.
  3) Iowa has lost 1.3 mil. acres of corn from flooding, and up to 3.3 mil. Cornbelt wide.
• Hard to believe, but it is farm program sign-up time. In addition to signing up for direct and counter-cyclical payments, USDA will also take your name for the new 2009 ACRE program. That program reduces your direct and marketing loan benefits by 20% and 30% respectively, but provides an additional payment that averages the 2008 and 2009 marketing years and if the weather market is active, the payment could be high.
• The prevented planting period has arrived for most Cornbelt locations. NE Extension's Paul Burgener says anything planted now is uninsurable. "For those producers carrying APH, CRC, or RA contracts, prevented planting is an option if the crop cannot be planted due to excess moisture or flooding. The rules for prevented planting are complex, and a visit with your insurance professional is recommended. Those producers who are carrying GRP or GRIP insurance are not eligible for prevented planting payments."
• Late replanting can still generate income. Regardless of hybrid maturity, July 1 planting may yield around 30%. Earlier maturities resulted in drier grain at all planting dates, but they also yielded less than full season hybrids. Iowa St. research indicates an early fall frost can destroy or dramatically reduce seed yields. Read much more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/062401RogerElmore.htm .
• 3 mil. acres of corn and beans in Iowa have been flood damaged, with 11% of corn to be replanted and 8% was flooded. Although mid-June is behind us, corn prices are causing many producers to consider replanting despite the yield loss. At this point, research show a 52% relative yield potential is possible with a population of 32,000.
• Soybean survival after a flood depends on the type of soil present in the field. When flooding occurs at the V-4 stage, MN researchers report yield loss of 1.8 bu/A per day of flooding on clay soil, but only 0.8 bu/A per day of flooding on silt loam soils.
• While the Cornbelt is wet, the Gulf states are dry and that means soybean rust is not spreading at this point. Ohio State's Anne Dorrance says only one Texas kudzu patch has Asian rust, and while it was found on soybeans in the Florida panhandle, it was only one pustule in 150 soybean leaves, which was "not much to get excited about."
• The data comes from Illinois, but the entire Cornbelt may be in need of an initiative to establish grass waterways. IL Extension specialist Bob Frazee says the latest cropland survey indicates 25% of the IL acreage is now incurring major damage from concentrated water flow and ephemeral erosion, certainly exacerbated by this spring's heavy rains.
• If your wheat looks sick it could be attributed to a variety of fungal diseases resulting from the cold, wet spring. Wheat generally outgrows such maladies as pythium root rot, bacterial leaf blight, and wheat streak mosaic virus, but this year has given it a challenge. None of the pathogens can be controlled by foliar fungicides, so don't waste the money. Next fall, ask your seed dealer for wheat varieties that are less susceptible to the fungi.
• Crazy top may be prevalent in the Cornbelt, because of the saturated soils and rains that kept whorls of corn plants full of water says MO Extension's Laura Sweets. That is the environment for a downy mildew fungus that causes the misshapen plants. It may be throughout the field, or in just a circle around a pond. Since losses are minimal, there are no control measures that are warranted, unless it is improved soil drainage in the field.
• Heavy weed infestation could have resulted from heavy rains that neutralized some herbicides or hurt canopy development. Weeds that emerge after the V3 stage in corn are at a disadvantage, and their impact may be minimal unless they completely cover the soil. Iowa State's Bob Hartzler says 3-4 in. weeds in 30 in. corn do not warrant a spray.
• This may be one year when you have weedy fields at harvest time, but Hartzler says that may be something you just have to ignore for now. He says late emerging weeds will have minimal impact, but may produce a lot of seed, and create a dense weed mass next year. If you are aware of such a potential problem, create a 2009 weed management plan.
• If you had no chance to apply pre-emergent weed control, short corn should be treated as soon as possible to avoid further yield loss from weed competition. Your weeds may be 5-6 in. tall, and a 5-10% yield loss on 150 bu. corn is worth $90 on $6 corn, and that cost estimate is increasing says IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager.
• Environmental factors have caused a thin cuticle on corn leaves, and that may be the reason corn is showing crop injury from post emergent herbicides. With wet soils causing stress, crop injury becomes more common, particularly if crop oil was used.
• Hager warns about potential problems with applications of post emergent herbicides to corn that may be older than the product label allows. Its height may be short, but it may be physiologically older, and he says do not apply the product if the corn is too old. Hager says if any tank-mixed products are used; follow the most restrictive product label.
• If soybeans were planted into a mass of winter annuals, and summer weeds are now coming on strong, Hager suggests delaying any burndown herbicide for several days after the soybeans are planted. He says the planting activity may have disturbed the winter annuals enough for them to shut down their metabolism and halt any herbicide uptake.
• Weather may have delayed your hay cutting and large stems did not dry normally, carrying moisture back to your hay storage, and now you have hot hay. While spontaneous combustion is rare, it can happen, unless you monitor the temperature, as recommended by Iowa State: http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/showitem.php?id=94
  1) 125 F. is a normal temperature, but too hot to hold your arm in the hay very long.
  2) 150 F. is when spoilage fungi are working and protein digestibility decreases.
  3) 175 F. is the point when spreading out the hay should be considered to avoid fire.
  4) 190 F. is the point when the fire department should be alerted. Very low feed value.
  5) 210 F. is the point of spontaneous combustion and firefighters should be present.