If it seems that high water years in the Midwest are increasingly common since about 1970; they are, says IA State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. Compared to 1993, he says the flood arrived earlier, water levels were higher in many places, and this year the rain and flooding were more widespread in the Midwest than was the case in 1993. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0613ElwynnTaylor.htm .
The climate has changed, says Taylor, because the Midwest receives 10% more annual precipitation since 1980 than prior to 1970, which doubles the stream flow. From 1930 to 1970 there were 2 "high water years", but since 1970 there have been 12 "high water years." He says the 200 year floods of the past can now be expected every 33 years.
Weather patterns similar to this year occurred in 1947, with many high flood reports, followed by a severe Cornbelt drought, says Elwynn Taylor at Iowa State. "The chance of changing to drought conditions appears to be about 25% and to the warm and dry side of usual (sufficient to reduce Cornbelt yields to below trend) is about 62%."
USDA's June 30th Planted Acreage Report will contain updated information about flooded crops after all. The National Ag Statistics Service will re-visit farms this coming week that were surveyed in early June to ascertain water damage and producers' plans for using the flooded fields. NASS says it will also conduct a more extensive update of planted and harvested acreage in July for a more accurate August Crop Report on 8/12.
A fair amount of crop loss and demand rationing are already priced into the corn market with December 2008 futures approaching $8, says Extension's Darrel Good at Illinois. "The worst of the crop stress may have passed and more favorable growing conditions are forecast. Corn prices may now moderate somewhat, at least until more is known about crop size." More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/061608.html .
The global soybean situation remains clouded by the standoff in Argentina between farmers and the government, according to Mike Woolverton at Kansas State. "Lack of a suitable government response to the on and off farmer's strike is causing a political crisis and has prevented Argentinean soybean exports for several months." Woolverton says US beans have filled the gap, which has reduced our carryover and raised prices.
Woolverton also says the Brazilian harvest may have been less than USDA estimates, since the Minister of Agriculture says it was 59.85 mmt, not USDA's guess of 61mmt. Woolverton also believes Brazil will not expand soybean production as much in 2008/09.
Did you sell at the Feb. highs, Melvin Brees asks? "Many producers now think they sold too early, sold too much, sold at too low of a price and some maybe even sold more than they may produce. What seemed like an easy decision to sell at almost unheard of prices in late winter now appears to have been the wrong decision. However, selling near record high prices is probably something that should be done again." Read more at: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf .
Brees, at the Univ. of MO, says corn and beans remain in a steep uptrend signaling that prices will move higher. But he also says "downside price risk is also huge." Brees says many bullish factors are priced into the market, and moderating weather will reduce the uncertainty of crop size, with prices moving lower. Many bearish factors include: 1) Livestock producers are liquidating to cut costs so feed demand will decline. 2) Exports will weaken from a stronger dollar and increasing transportation costs. 3) Weaker oil prices will squeeze ethanol demand, leading to refinery slow downs. 4) Limits placed on speculative trading would cause liquidation and a price collapse. 5) Opening the CRP for cropping would increase 2009 acreage and lower prices.
Cash prices for beans are catching up to futures, calculates Purdue's Chris Hurt, "Soybeans are getting hard to find and basis levels have reflected the shortage that is developing this summer. Basis levels moved from about $.50 to $.60 under futures in late winter to about $.15 to $.25 under currently. Hurt's latest newsletter can be read at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=55 .
Hurt says, "July futures reached $15.96 on March 3 and a return to that level is now the objective for old-crop futures. New-crop futures prices established new record contract highs on June 11 at $15.11. Movement toward $16 would be the short-term upside objective. It has been a wild ride as November futures have had a trading range of $4.50 per bushel from lows April 1 through June 11." He says weather will dictate the trend.
Plan your soybean marketing. Hurt says add to new crop sales, but do it wisely: 1) The basis is wide, compared to the shortage of new crop beans over the coming year. 2) The demand for storage will be limited this fall because of the smaller corn crop. 3) There will not be as much pressure to sell either beans or corn at harvest. 4) The current new crop basis of 80¢ to $1 should tighten to 35¢ to 50¢ at harvest. 5) Any pricing for new beans should be on hedge-to-arrive, without setting the basis. 6) Since the basis will improve, forward contracts that set the basis should not be used.
Corn roots may be suffering, if it was planted in damp soils that became compacted then crusted with beating rains. IL Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says cultivation could break up the crust and mulch the soil to retard evaporation, and give oxygen to the roots. He says corn with yellow leaves is not photosynthesizing well and is standing in water. He says its roots will not recover very fast due to slow soil drying.
If your corn is yellow, it is likely due to wet soils and depleted nitrogen, and there is little that can be done until the soils dry out says Emerson Nafziger. The quick warm up helped the leaves at the expense of the roots, and their demand for moisture and nutrients outstripped the ability of the roots to supply the needs. He says the roots need oxygen, and need to escape from carbon dioxide. Nitrogen will only enhance vegetative growth, which will not help the roots. He says the roots need to grow without your help.
The corn planting deadline depends on your north latitude. Nafziger says corn that is planted late, then gets wet, will probably not mature in time. A crop that dries out will suffer from drought stress. He says it is not impossible, but getting good yields from corn planted after 20%-25% of the seasonal Growing Degree Days have already accumulated is not a very sure thing. He says mid to northern growers need shorter season corn.
Sorghum can still be planted, and yield acceptably since it is a shorter season crop. IL crop specialist Dennis Epplin says sorghum needs only 35-40 days from mid-pollination to harvest, versus the 55-60 for corn. Narrow rows provide a quick canopy, but planters will require special seed plates. Check pre-plant herbicide labels for potential problems.
Prepare for the worst when it comes to Japanese beetles and corn rootworm beetles at pollination time. That is advice of IL Extension entomologist Mike Gray who says both insects have been delayed in their development, along with the corn, and that would put the timing for pollination and silk clipping at the hottest point of the summer in late July.
Japanese beetles in your soybeans could be a more serious peril this year with the higher values of beans. Mike Gray says traditional defoliation levels suggested as economic thresholds are 30% before bloom and 20% between bloom and pod fill. But with the higher values of beans, he says a more conservative assessment is warranted when treatment decisions are made. He says the key to success this year is careful scouting.
Soybean aphids have been found in northern IL, also getting a late start. Entomologist Kevin Steffey says, "Because there are fewer soybean fields at this time in 2008 (73% planted, 58% emerged as on June 16) than usually are available to soybean aphids during most years at this time, infestations could become relatively large in scattered fields. The temperatures this past week have been ideal for soybean aphid development."
Flood #4. Electrical systems in farm buildings may have been compromised, so power should be disconnected professionally, before you thoroughly dry out circuit boxes.
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
