Speculators in the corn and bean markets may have pushed prices higher, but there are fundamental reasons supporting prices as well, says IL Extension's Darrel Good. He says there is both domestic and foreign demand and questions about crop size. Read his latest newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/052708.html .
Good says the crush should exceed USDA projections and prospects for soybean meal demand will remain strong following the recovering hog prices and continuing demand. Soybean exports are as strong as they were at this time last year with the help of China's demand and Argentina's halt on exports. He also says over half the soybean crop will be planted after May 20, which delays emergence and questions yield potential.
With ethanol demand and profitability high, corn demand by refiners is also strong, however wheat feeding may dampen corn demand by livestock operators. However, export demand remains on track for a 17% increase over 2007 levels despite a recent slowdown. On the supply side, Good says yield potential is also threatened for corn, since over half of the crop in IA, MN, & MO will be planted after May 10.
Hog prices have climbed from $35 on a live weight basis in mid-March to $58 and huge financial losses for pork producers have slowed with prices closer to production costs. Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt attributes the turnaround to several factors: 1) Despite lagging information, exports have increased 40% and imports dropped 10%. 2) April pork prices averaged $1.31/lb less than beef, as consumers saved money for gas. 3) Meat traders are aggressively holding onto stocks, expecting prices to rise.
Is there still a need for herd reduction? Purdue's Chris Hurt says he thinks other pork producers around the world are reducing their herd, particularly in Canada. And he says with US market share gains in the export market it will only have to be 3-5%.
Don't be too sure pork producers and the market are in balance say MO economists Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes, "The odds appear high that hog producers have at least reduced the rate of decline in the breeding herd. With hog prices at a level to produce profit for the average-cost producers along with the futures market for the next year, there are signals that reductions are not necessary. We doubt this is the situation we really have."
Grimes and Plain attribute higher pork prices to overseas demand, "The average live hog price for January-April at $40.99 per cwt was down only 12.1% with pork production up 13-14%. The live prices were higher than expected, the demand for pork has been up substantially from a year earlier, and most of the credit probably goes to larger exports."
Late planting #1: Emerson Nafziger at IL says, "For each week that soybean is planted after May 31, the established population ought to be increased by 15 to 20 thousand plants per acre in order to maintain yield potential for the date on which the crop is planted. Any planting after June 1 should also be in rows no more than 15 inches apart."
Late planting #2: Nafziger says, "Using the response curves generated from our corn planting date data shows that we can expect 50% of the maximum yield when planting is done around June 15 to 20 in Illinois. We would expect actual yields of corn planted on June 15 to vary greatly depending on the weather the rest of the season."
Late planting #3: Nafziger also says, "Potential yields of both corn and soybean are decreased considerably by planting as late as mid-June, and that the expected yields of both crops are decelerating quickly by then, with losses approaching 3% or 4% per day of delay, as cumulative loss approaches 50%." He discourages a switch from corn to beans.
Late planting #4: If sorghum has entered your mind as an alternative to corn, Nafziger says the late date does not warrant such a change of plans. He says sorghum's need for heat and rain is the same as corn, but sorghum's lesser yield puts you at a disadvantage.
Late planting #5: Purdue's Bob Nielsen says it may be time to switch seedcorn, "Growers who intend on 'sticking to their guns' with corn acres should be talking with their seed dealers now about possible switches to earlier maturity hybrids." Find relative hybrid maturities that could safely be planted over the next 3 weeks based on expected heat unit needs and a "normal" accumulation of heat units from now until a killing frost.
Late planting #6: Nielsen also suggests saving seed costs, "One of the few positive aspects of late-planted corn is that stand establishment should be more successful due to warmer soils and more rapid germination/emergence conditions. So, instead of bumping seeding rates by roughly 10% as we suggest for earlier-planted corn, growers could back off to seeding rates that are equal to or 5% above their target final populations."
In Iowa, emergence is the problem for the corn crop. Agronomists predict some seedlings will not be able to emerge, final populations will be reduced, and yields will be reduced. They suggest assessing the population to determine if replanting is appropriate, use decision aids to evaluate replanting, and as a last resort use a rotary hoe. They say that will reduce plant stands 5-10%, and that will vary depending upon field conditions.
To obtain maximum yields, weed specialist Bob Hartzler at Iowa State says weeds must be controlled before the critical period is reached, and that is when weed competition begins to cut yields. His chart http://www.weeds.iastate.edu/mgmt/2008/timeliness.htm says a 7.5 in. weed will drop yields 9% on average and 24% in heavy weed competition.
If volunteer corn is going to be a problem in your soybeans this year, don't depend on glyphosate if it is Roundup Ready corn. However, NE weed specialists recommend a herbicide application at the 3-4 leaf stage. Herbicides at the full rate will not only control the corn, but many other grassy weeds, such as barnyard grass and various foxtails.
To solve your weedy soybean problem, solve your insect problem first. NE weed specialists say if soybeans are being defoliated by bean leaf beetles, it provides more opportunity for weeds to grow in the sunlight. They found that soybeans with 30-60% leaf damage have a shorter window for weeds to be controlled before yield is reduced.
Black cutworms are out and about, but just because you see one, does not mean the field needs to be sprayed, says IL Extension Specialist Kevin Steffey, "Spending money to spray simply because the price for corn is high makes no sense if the return on investment is $0. Early evidence of leaf feeding or slight cutting activity is not economic damage."
Corn borer adults are looking for cornfields to lay eggs, but entomologist Kevin Steffey says it will be difficult for them to find fields where the larvae will survive. "If the cornfields have varying heights, focus your attention on the tallest fields, especially those planted to non-Bt corn hybrids. Also, keep your eye on the refuges beside Bt cornfields.
Bean leaf beetles are also having a hard time finding food, since few soybeans have emerged. Steffey says many are in alfalfa and clover fields where the adults hibernated and are looking for bean fields, but he believes the first generation will be diminished.
Stalk borers are hatching out and will be migrating soon to new corn when the larvae get too big for perennial grasses. WI entomologist Bryan Jensen says they will feed in the whorl, then move down into the stalk leaving a wilted whorl. He says concern has been minimal about stalk borers recently, but with higher prices for corn that may change.
Army worms could be a threat, if you have no-till corn or your corn is adjacent to a grass cover crop say Purdue Extension specialists, "If more than 50% of the plants show armyworm feeding and live larvae less than 1-1/4 inches long are numerous in the field, a control may be necessary. Larvae greater than 1-1/4 inches consume a large amount of leaf tissue and are more difficult to control." Spot treatments may help on field edges.
Wheat growers may have loose smut, which replaces kernels with masses of black spores, and there is nothing that can be done. The fungus was contained in the embryo and grew in the plant after germination. IL Extension Specialist Carl Bradley says the only recourse is to plant disease free seed next year from varieties with good resistance.
If wind power intrigues you, plan to attend the wind power conference June 25-26 at Bloomington, IL, which addresses all aspects of wind energy and many national experts speaking. View the agenda at: http://www.wind.ilstu.edu/ .
Ethanol is the reason for only 1.2% of the rise in food prices over the past 2 years says NE ag economist Richard Perrin. He says grain prices have roughly doubled in that time, and ethanol is responsible for 40% of the increase. Doubled grain prices contribute 3% to the increase in US food prices, and 40% of 3% equals the 1.2% Perrin calculates.
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
