A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Apr. 11, 2008, Vol. 9 No. 51

Start your day at: www.Farmgate.uiuc.edu , a blog for farm decision-makers.

"Your Virtual Research Assistant."

• USDA's Supply Demand Report this week cut corn carryover by 155 mil. bu. from strong feed and export demand, balanced with a 100 mil. bu. decline in ethanol demand. High corn prices have slowed the rate at which new ethanol plants are coming on line.
• Conversely, the soybean carryout was raised by 20 mil. bu., but remains at 5% of use. USDA's soybean demand estimates were all raised for domestic crush and exports, but residual was lowered and that resulted in added carryout. US bean exports remain high because of the Argentine farmer strike and the Brazilian dock workers strike. USDA is estimating that the marketing year average farm price for soybeans will be $10 to $10.50.
• Ending stocks for wheat remained at the 62 year low in USDA's Supply Demand Report. Human consumption was raised, while livestock use was lowered, the latter a result of high wheat prices. USDA says the year's average price will be $6.55 to $6.75. However, shortages of good milling wheat here and abroad are supporting wheat prices.
• So what do you draw from the numbers? Kansas State's Mike Woolverton suggests:
  1) Global demand is strong and the weak dollar continues to boost U.S. exports
  2) U.S. and global supplies of the major grains and oilseed crops are tight,
  3) Acreage planted, growing conditions, and yields are critical this year, without stocks.
• Will pork producers qualify for disaster aid under plans being debated this week by Farm Bill Conferees on Capitol Hill? Purdue economist Chris Hurt rhetorically asks that question in connection with his expectation for $3.5 bil. in industry losses in 2008. Hurt says producers can shoulder the blame for not curtailing production despite warnings.
• Hog prices averaged less than $40 for the first quarter of 2008 says Extension's Hurt, and while he expects some improvement in coming months, he says they will be poor throughout the year: 2^nd quarter--$47, 3^rd quarter--$48, and 4^th quarter--$45. He says a more aggressive sow liquidation is needed—6 to 8%--and the sooner the better.
• Pork profitability has been hurt by low market prices, but also high feed costs, and Hurt says prospects for 2008 losses are now near $30 per head. But he says there will be no financial bail out for the pork industry, which must take responsibility for the losses. His newsletter is at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/040708.html .
• Farrow to finish producers are losing $24 per head say Iowa State livestock economists who calculate annualized returns. They also used lower corn costs that were based on 2007 production costs. They say, "Hog producers that raised their own corn and have no debt payment on facilities have not covered their short run costs for over five months."
• 10% of hogs are sold on a futures market formula and their prices fared better than hogs sold on the spot market, meat market, or long market formulas. That is the analysis of MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes, who calculated monthly price advantages back to September and said the differences ranged from $11.52 in Sept. to $29.00 in Nov.
• Yield damaging weather is still in the summer forecast of Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. He believes a winter La Nina has peaked, but summer weather patterns are unclear. He's expecting a weak to moderate La Nina will dominate summer weather, a Burmuda high, and a drier summer than last year for the Western Corn Belt.
• Implement size and fuel consumption can put you in a quandary. NE Extension's Tom Dorn says, "The fuel use per acre for field operations is independent of implement width. For example, consider two disks, one with a 20-foot width and the other with a 30-foot width. It would take 50% more power to pull the 30-foot disk (assuming the same travel speed, depth, etc.), but since the disk would be tilling 50% more acres per hour, the fuel use per acre would be the same for either scenario." More: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/ .
• If your winter wheat seems disappointing, the winter snow and ice took a toll on it and it has been slow to green up. If you are considering replacing it with spring wheat, remember that it is getting late to plant spring wheat and the balance of the growing season needs to be relatively cool with sufficient moisture. IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger says if the purpose is for straw production, there should be plenty of time. His wheat newsletter is at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=898 .
• Wheat leaves may look bad, but agronomist Herb Ohm at Purdue says the crown may be doing fine. He says, "Generally, if there are at least 15 plants per square foot, it is worth keeping – there will be a yield loss, but with current prices it should be worth keeping, although one should plan on applying a herbicide."
• Topdressing wheat with nitrogen can still be done say Purdue agronomists, but they say it should occur prior to jointing. But the longer the wait, the more damage that is done to plants as the spreader works through the field. Late applications result in less yield response and more increase in grain protein. They suggest that if the wheat is already jointed, reduce the application rate down by 10-15%. For tips on late N applications, see http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/Wheat-LateN-0410.html .
• Soybean seed quality continues to concern Extension specialists, who say seed coats are thin because of conditions late last year, and nearly all seed companies are impacted.
  1) Treat all soybean seed with fungicides for protection from root rot to increase stands.
  2) Plant the highest quality seed in the most adverse environment.
  3) Be gentle with the seed, because 80% germination means that is the maximum.
  4) Producers who plant more seed than supposedly needed will end up with a good stand.
  5) Slow down the planter to ensure each seed is 1-1.5 inches deep and uniformly spaced.
• It is too early in the year to take the attitude that Asian rust will be a non-issue says IL crop specialist Robert Bellm. For the past 3 years, it has not had the proper environment in the Midwest to survive, but he says each year is different and the past should not determine the future. Bellm says the management tools are in place to protect soybeans and reduce yield loss, but he says diligent scouting of soybean fields is needed first.
• Will low rates of Poncho and Cruiser be able to control black cutworm larvae? Kevin Steffey of IL Extension says the .25 mg of active ingredient per seed may not control the older larvae, and he stresses the need for early season scouting for black cutworms. He says rescue treatments are usually very effective, if the infestation is found early enough.
• If you get bored waiting to plant, try something different and put out some bait stations for wireworms. Scoop out 2-3 inches of soil 6-9 inches across and fill with untreated corn or wheat. Cover it with black plastic, weight it down with soil, and flag it. If you have only one wireworm per bait station in a field, you may have economic infestation.
• You may not have focused much on wireworms in the past, warns IL Extension's Mike Gray, who says his university colleagues are paying more attention to them. One researcher found that an apparently dead wireworm recovered 100 days after insecticide treatment. Gray says that means densities of them could build significantly in a season.
• If you have wet soil, you probably have weeds. And if you have weeds, you may soon have moths that will be laying eggs for black cutworms. It seems the longer that corn planting is delayed, the greater the chance for damage from cutworms. Young ones feed on leaf tissue, but the 4^th instars begin cutting off corn plants and hauling them away.
• Should you add 2,4-D to your pre-plant burndown for no-till fields? That is a smart idea to Jeff Stachler of OH Extension. He says with all of the dandelions and weeds that might be glyphosate resistant, the addition of 2,4-D is important in achieving effective control. He adds, "At this point in the season, it is more important to include 2,4-D in preplant herbicide applications and to delay planting of corn and soybean rather than planting the crops and controlling weeds after planting." More: http://corn.osu.edu/#C .
• The wet spring has probably not caused the loss of much, if any, nitrogen according to IL Extension's Fabian Fernandez. That is because it requires various bacteria to convert nitrogen and the cold wet soil has not be conducive to bacterial action. If any is missing it may have been lost last fall when the soil stayed warm and dry longer than normal. But Fernandez says the only N lost this spring would have washed out of fields in heavy rain.
• Glyphosate prices have confounded soybean producers, but opened the opportunity to look at alternative weed control programs costing the same as a 2-pass glyphosate program which use both a pre-emerge and post glyphosate applications to improve weed control. http://ipcm.wisc.edu/WCMNews/tabid/53/EntryID/480/Default.aspx
• Roundup Ready alfalfa will not be on the market this spring. The re-registration process in lengthy and USDA's paperwork is expected to be completed in 18-24 months. That means the product cannot be legally marketed until mid-late 2009 at the earliest.