USDA expects a 10% increase in soybean acreage for 2008, but IL Extension economist Darrel Good questions the need for so much, which he says a trendline yield would give a nearly 3 bil. bu. crop. He calculates current market prices to give a revenue advantage to corn in IL at least. He remembers the price relationship at this time in 2007 and says the market must avoid the mistake that tentatively caused too large a shift from corn to beans.
Darrel Good's concern is that USDA acreage forecasts call for more crop acres than what is available. USDA's corn, bean, and wheat acres total 225 mil., but Good says the US will be unable to produce that much, unless about 2 mil. acres of pasture becomes crops. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/022508.html .
La Nina is getting stronger, but also is showing age, says Iowa St. meteorologist Elwynn Taylor, who maintains a 70%+ chance of the US corn yield averaging below 150.6 bu. Taylor says the March outlook is typical with a dry tendency in the High Plains, and from So. California to the Southeastern US. His July-August Midwest precipitation outlook is expected to be a typical warmer, drier La Nina pattern.
Two weeks and counting before the crop insurance deadline, and if the choice between CRC and RA is hard, IL Extension economist Gary Schnitkey says there is a 30% chance that CRC rules will restrict the size of the indemnity, should volatility impact fall harvest prices. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_04/fefo08_04.html .
Crop Revenue Coverage has a $1.50 limit on the amount that corn prices can rise between the spring and fall prices, and $3.00 for beans. Revenue Assurance does not have those limits. If you need help Schnitkey has developed numerous decision aids for crop insurance at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/cropinstoolsmain.asp?num=1 .
As acreage increases for transgenic corn, Ohio St. crop specialist Peter Thomison grows more concerned about the potential for transgenic pollen contaminating a neighboring field that may not have a biotech corn hybrid planted. He says growers are going to have a difficult time ensuring that their non-transgenic corn remains that way.
How do you isolate non-transgenic corn? Thomison says talk to neighbor to find out what is planted where. Stagger planting dates and plant hybrids with various maturities. He says take steps now to make sure non-transgenic fields are isolated. He also said with the popularity of triple stack hybrids, the chance increases for erosion of the 20% acreage requirement for refuges. Thomison says refuges are all that will keep biotech working.
USDA's cattle on feed report for Feb. indicates a 2% rise from Feb. of 2007, but down 1% from Jan. and down from 2006. There were 11.996 mil. head in feedlots, with 1.787 mil. head placed in lots and 1.858 mil. head marketed. Livestock economist Shane Ellis at Iowa St. says, "With the decline in beef cow numbers, feedlot placements and marketings in 2008 will be steady to slightly lower than those of last year."
Even with high feed prices, Ellis says feedlots will still buy cattle. "However, the higher costs of feeding will continue to drive down the price that feedlots can pay for calves and yearlings. Feedlots will also become more specific about what price they"ll pay for each weight class of cattle as they try to work in profitability in the face of tight margins." More: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/info/S802.pdf .
Ten years out, what will the US livestock industry look like? Missouri livestock economist Glenn Grimes provides statistics from the USDA projection for 2017. 1) Pork consumption drops from 50.5 pounds in 2007 to 48.8 pounds in 2017 per capita. 2) Beef declines from 65 pounds in 2007 to 60.1 pounds in 2017 per capita. 3) Broilers increase from 85.4 pounds in 2007 to 88.1 in 2017. 4) The beef industry in U.S. would be about the same size in 2017 as 2007. 5) The pork industry would be 5% larger, but broilers would be 12% larger.
If you have wheat, Iowa St. agronomists suggest a broadcast of red clover over your wheat in late March or early April for frost seeding. It will provide nitrogen to the wheat, forage for livestock, and build soil quality. They say it has a fertilizer replacement value for corn of 80-120 lbs./A. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/PM2025.pdf .
Weeds steal moisture, sunlight and nutrients from crops, but how about that nitrogen applied last fall? Bob Hartzler at Iowa St. says, "Corn yields were not reduced when weeds were controlled at the 4-inch stage, but delaying application until weeds were 12-inches resulted in a 9% yield loss averaged over the two years." If the weeds reduce nitrogen availability for the corn, then higher rates are required for optimum yields.
Weeds develop herbicide resistance, bugs develop insecticide resistance, why not fungi? They do says IL Extension crops specialist Jim Morrison, who says rotate fungicides between groups next year to avoid development of fungicide resistance. Fungicide family charts are available at: http://ipm.uiuc.edu/education/action.html .
It is a farm. It produces food. But it also has gross revenue of $10 per row foot, and Ohio St. Extension specialist Joe Kovach gets $90,000 per acre with his experimental pest management program. It features plots with a mix of such high-value crops as snap peas, green beans, blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, tomatoes and edamame. It is designed to prevent pests, but he's not solved the problems with Japanese beetles & deer.
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
