A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Feb. 8, 2008, Vol. 9 No. 42

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• USDA Supply/Demand numbers Friday will revise the grain ending stocks estimates. The market expects the Jan. corn carryout of 1.438 bil. bu. to drop to 1.412 bil. and the Jan. soybean carryout of 175 mil. bu. to be lowered to 166 mil. Additionally, the market expects the wheat carryout of 292 mil. bu. from the Jan. report to drop to 273 mil. bu.
• 15% more for corn and 10% more for beans are the estimated increases in production costs for 2008 crops, compared to last year say IL Extension economists Gary Schnitkey and Dale Lattz. Those operational costs would be $370 for corn and $220 for beans per acre, and those do not include land costs, such as cash rents or mortgage payments.
• The additional costs result from anhydrous ammonia prices climbing to $700 per ton and total fertilizer costs estimated at $30 more per acre for corn and $10 for beans. They add land costs and corn production rises to $550 per acre and beans to $400 per acre. That means breakeven prices are $3.06 on 180 bu. corn and $7.41 for 54 bu. soybeans.
• If you are still working on crop budgets, and want to calculate the optimum economic rate of nitrogen application, the price of corn and the cost of anhydrous ammonia are moving targets. Purdue economists say the optimum agronomic rate may be 173 lbs of N on a given field, but the optimum economic rate on the same field was 149 lbs of N. Get current rates at: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/NLoss-0204.pdf .
• Calf prices were at record levels in 2005, but they have declined 16¢ per pound from higher feed costs. Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt says that cuts the value of a 500 lb. calf about $80 per head. Across the livestock industry, that is a nearly $3 billion annual loss. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/020408.html .
• Land for pasture grazing has become more scarce and expensive as ground is turned to crop production, says Iowa State livestock economist Shane Ellis. He adds, "If crop prices remain at their current levels it will become increasing difficult for cattle producers to compete without a dramatic increase in beef prices. This is especially true in Iowa where we have seen some of the most dramatic declines in cow numbers." Read more at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo020108.pdf
• With the red ink in the pork market comes a welcome report that consumer demand was up 2.6% in 2007, and total demand up 3.6% with the help of exports and population growth. MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says all meats recorded demand growth last year, but exports and population have pushed pork demand up 26% over 22 years ago. His latest hog outlook is at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull1c.htm .
• If glyphosate won't kill your waterhemp, what do you do, in case it is also immune to ALS, PPO, and triazine herbicides? IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager has a series of integrated approaches to stave off some potential new challenges:
  1) Use a full-labeled rate of a soil-applied herbicide 7 days before to 3 days after planting
  2) Apply 1.0 lb a.e. of glyphosate alone per acre when waterhemp is 3-5 inches tall.
  3) Scout fields 7 days after initial glyphosate application to determine effectiveness
  4) If treatment fails, apply a PPO-inhibiting herbicide at full labeled rate ASAP.
  5) Re-scout in 10-14 days and if treatment failed, rogue survivors before they reproduce.
• Recent devastating weather does not indicate bad weather for the rest of the year says MO climatologist Pat Guinan. He says the typical winter jet stream over the southern US creates increased instability between cold fronts and warm moist air. Guinan says since tornadoes can occur in any month, winter tornadoes are not a bellwether for the year.
• If you are concerned about nitrogen loss from heavy rains, Purdue agronomists say fall applied nitrogen will still be in place. They report most of the losses are in the spring when the temperature warms up. They say before ammonium applied as anhydrous ammonia can be lost, it has to be converted to nitrate, and that has not yet happened. More is at: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/NLoss-0204.pdf .
• It may be tempting to feed your wheat an early helping of nitrogen, but OH agronomist Edwin Lentz says most of the N will be lost if applied to frozen ground and he says wait until spring green-up. He says the benefit of frozen ground application is not a trade off considering the average yield loss is 19% from the loss of the nitrogen fertilizer. He says if you can't wait, ammonium sulfate would have the least loss. http://corn.osu.edu/#A
• Dairy operators are seeing lower prices, following 2007, when international demand and the weak dollar brought Europeans to the US dairycase. MO dairy economist Scott Brown says feed and other production costs will rise, while dairy prices will fade in 2008. Compared to the nearly $22 per cwt market highs, he predicted a 2008 average of $16.90.
• Dairymen will be challenged in 2008 with supply control, since more cows are entering herds along with higher production per cow. Brown says increased feed costs will slow down some production, but there will be a problem finding markets for more milk.
• Vehicle tax deductions can either be based on $.485 per mile in 2007 or actual expenses, and OH farm management specialist Donald Breece says that rate rises to $.505 in 2008. He says a farm business can claim up to 75% of the use of a car or truck as business use without any travel records if it is used most of the day on the farm. Depreciation and cost information is at: http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu/news/index.php#vehicledeductions .