USDA's September Crop Report estimated corn production at 13.308 bil. bu. with a 155.8 national average yield. The Supply/Demand report increased exports and feed use each by 100 mil. bu., and lowered ethanol use of corn by 100 mil. and raised ending stocks to 1.675 bil. bu. The national average price ranges from $2.80 to $3.40. Details: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-09-12-2007.txt .
USDA's September Crop Report estimated soybean production at 2.619 bil. bu. with a 41.4 national average yield. The Supply/Demand report modestly increased the crush rate to 1.825 bil. bu., lowered exports to 975 bil. bu. and dropped ending stocks to 215 mil. bu. next August. The national average price ranges from $7.35 to $8.35.
Despite the wide difference between futures and cash prices, "The price difference is not a grain market collusion; it is simply supply and demand" says MO marketing specialist Melvin Brees. He says freight, fuel, and trucking costs are higher, there is competition for rail cars and barges that are all depressing the basis. And he says with more grain coming to elevators than is storable, the elevators have increased their risk of loss.
Low temps in the northern Cornbelt are threatening immature crops. USDA's latest report indicated vulnerability for 59% of the IA corn, and 70% for corn near NE & MN. Agronomists say there is a 3% yield loss with the milk line at ¾ of the kernel and an 8% yield loss if the milk line is at ½ of the kernel. Drying is also difficult with frost damage.
The wet corn problem for livestock feeders is from excessive August rains that left ears in dirty water. Dairy Specialist Mike Hutjens says "The end result of this is delayed harvest, mold and mycotoxin formation in the grain, rotten corn plants, risk of lodging, dirt contamination on and in the corn plant, and the germination of corn on the cob." He says harvest for grain or silage when possible and prepare to discard if it is unwholesome.
The dry corn problem for livestock feeders is from scant rainfall in July and August that burned up the crop. Hutjens says there is variable kernel fill, variable kernel size, and heat stressed stalks, and says an alternative is for dairy managers to purchase corn as a forage extender, particularly since hay prices currently exceed $150 per ton.
Are cattle profitable at current corn prices? Livestock economist Dillon Feuz at Utah State says with fed cattle at 90¢ for most of the year, and the cost of a pound of gain averaging 70¢, "It would appear to be the economically correct decision for a feedlot to continue to feed cattle up to the point where there is a risk of the cattle being discounted for heavy weight carcasses or yield grade 4 carcasses." But just where is that point?
Watch for weeds that escaped your herbicide as you harvest, says MO weed specialist Kevin Bradley. If you can't identify the weeds in your field, get help from Extension: 1) Make a map or use your yield monitor to record a significant patch of weeds. 2) Sparsely scattered weeds may have germinated after your last herbicide application. 3) A patch of different weeds in a clean field may indicate a sprayer malfunction. 4) A patch of the same weed in a clean field may indicate possible herbicide resistance. 5) A dense patch of weeds will mean an even greater problem in the same spot next year.
Will large weeds interfere with harvest? A hard freeze and 7 days weakens the biomass. You can also apply glyphosate, but the corn must be under 35% moisture and cannot be harvested for 7 days. If applying glyphosate to soybeans to kill weeds, the harvest delay must be 15 days, 65% of the pods must be mature brown, or beans under 30% moisture.
Asian soybean rust spores are showing up in the Cornbelt, but Specialist Ann Dorrance at Ohio State says don't worry. The spores were apparently killed by ultraviolet radiation enroute from southern states, and were not viable when they arrived. The numbers of the soybean rust spores are very low and don't warrant any action even on doublecrop beans. Continue to monitor the official soybean rust website at: www.sbrusa.net .
Test weight is affected by kernel density, size, and shape as well as by moisture and condition of the seed coat; but Extension agronomist Emerson Nafziger says no one has found a correlation between test weight and yield. Within the same hybrid, lower or higher test weight is often related to kernel weight, which is often correlated with yield.
A corn kernel that does not fill very well with starch has lower endosperm density, thus lower kernel density. This means the kernel has less weight for its volume. This often means a drop in test weight. From a practical standpoint, more "bushels" (56-pound units) fit into a bin when test weight is high than when it is low, concludes Nafziger.
If you are planting wheat, Extension's Emerson Nafziger says research shows a consistent yield advantage of 2 to 4 bu. where wheat follows soybean compared to corn. This difference might be less where lower corn yields mean less crop residue and some carryover nutrients, primarily nitrogen. Make sure that herbicides applied to the previous crop, and the rate and timing of application, allow wheat to be planted this fall.
For weed control in wheat, some producers use herbicides on no-till wheat on the fall. This can be very helpful if there are winter annuals that can be controlled, and with weeds like dandelion, in which fall control is usually better than spring control. In tilled fields, fall-applied herbicides are often unnecessary if few weeds emerge with the wheat.
Harvest season is also accident season, since more mishaps between cars and farm equipment occur at this time of year than any other. Although motorists are to blame for most accidents, there are pro-active things farmers can do to reduce the potential: 1) Equipment should have SMV symbols meeting S276.5 standards of 1,000 ft. visibility. 2) Equipment on the road at night should have 2 white headlights and two red tail lights. 3) Equipment should have one flashing amber light, mounted as high as possible. 4) Retro-reflective red tape should be placed on the extremities, facing the rear. 5) Equipment wider than 2 lanes should be accompanied by front and rear escorts. 6) Do not move equipment on highways when weather cuts visibility to under 1,000 ft.
Find out how your farm will fare under each of the various farm program proposals being considered by Congress for the 2007 Farm Bill. IL Extension farm management Specialist Gary Schnitkey created a calculator that is downloaded into an Excel spreadsheet at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/pubs/FASTtool_special.asp?ID=51 .
38 MO farms were studied in depth by ag economists to forecast financial performance, and found variability. http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/index.asp?current_page=home . 1) corn-soy had the strongest outlook, were improving & driving toward record profits. 2) crop-beef farms were benefiting from crop prices, and helped by stronger beef prices. 3) pork-crop farms may not cash flow in 2009-10 if feeding more than farrowing. 4) beef farms have better outlook now because of continued stronger demand for beef. 5) dairy farms are strong from high milk prices, and will have less future financial risk.
Early in 2008 you will be asked to fill out and submit information for the USDA's 2007 Ag Census, based on your farming operation this year. One of the options is to fill out the questionnaire on the USDA's website, which is at: http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/ .
Your Ag Census form is due back to USDA by Feb. 4, whether you fill out the paper version or the online version. It looks at land use and ownership, operator characteristics, production practices, income and expenditures and other topics. It provides the only source of uniform, comprehensive agricultural data for every county in the nation.
If commercial fertilizer is costly because of high natural gas prices, IL Extension Bioengineer Ted Funk suggests more reliance on manure, if all issues are resolved: 1) Test your soil and apply manure first to poor ground where P & K tests are low. 2) Apply manure based on maximum P & K, not trying to reach an N target rate. 3) Including hauling, keep manure application costs to 1 to 1.5¢ per gal. 4) Surface application of liquid or solid is cheap but emits odors until disked under. 5) Subsurface injection costs 4 times as much, but puts nutrients where they'll be used. 6) If buying manure, get periodic content sampling to ensure nutrient consistency. 7) If application is limited to fall, N will be lost if temperature exceeds 50 degrees.
Cornbelt farmers wanting grants to fund on-farm research to test practices such as sustainable or organic agriculture are invited to a grant-writing workshop on 9/27 in Springfield, IL. USDA is seeking proposals for grants at http://ncr.sare.org/prod.htm . To register or obtain more information, send an e-mail to: cvnghgrn@uiuc.edu .
Do your tax preparer a favor and alert them about Extension's series of farm tax schools being held around IL from 10/23 to 12/7. Some of the topics address: like-kind exchanges, Schedule K-1 issues, death of a taxpayer, new legislation, small business issues, entity issues, S corporations, and elder issues. http://www.ace.uiuc.edu/taxschool
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
