USDA's August 1 Crop Report will be released next Friday morning. It will have objective yield estimates based on actual field samples taken over the past week. An early estimate from a private service put corn at 148 bu. per acre with a 12.644 bil. bu. crop. That compares to USDA's July 150.3 bu. and 12.84 bil. bu production estimate.
At Iowa State, economist Bob Wisner's estimate is 148.5 bu. per acre. This is 6.4 bu. per acre lower than his July estimate. "The lower indicated yield reflects sharp declines in crop conditions in northwest IA, MN, WI, MI, OH, and IN. Dry weather in these areas has put stress on crops." That is 500 mil. bu. less than grain trade expectations. Read his newsletter at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ .
Wisner says a 148 bu. crop would meet the market's demand, but "smaller than currently projected carryover stocks plus prospects for a continued sharp expansion in the ethanol industry in 2008-09 would indicate a need for the market to insure that 2008 corn acreage does not decline." The Outlook Specialist said, "That would set the stage for a battle between corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton for cropland again in 2008."
Watch for USDA to raise its soybean forecast, says Wisner. "Weekly soybean crop conditions are similar to last year, when the US average yield was 42.7 bu./A. With good August rains, USDA's current yield projection of 41.5 bu./A could be conservative. A yield forecast of 42.5 bu./A or more might cause temporary weakness in soybean prices."
Soybean cash and futures failed to converge when the July contract expired says Extension's Darrel Good, who compared it to problems in the past year with wheat futures. He says the basis is over $1 in parts of the Cornbelt and Gulf cash is even less than futures prices. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/073007.html .
Why is the soybean basis so wide? IL Outlook specialist Darrel Good suggests: 1) Historically large stocks have depressed cash prices and discouraged ownership. 2) There is increased speculative interest in owning futures contracts.
Holders of revenue insurance could get a check because of the weak soybean basis says Darrel Good, depending on price movement into the harvest period. Anyone holding short hedges or hedge to arrive contracts is being hurt, says Darrel, but those who had long hedges benefited from lifting the hedges during a period of extremely weak basis.
With a smaller soybean crop, a decline in domestic stocks, and an increase in South American soybean supplies, then basis levels should return to normal. That indicates potential profits would be more likely if the new crop could be stored until that time.
Everyone seems to agree: densities of adult corn rootworms are considerably less than anticipated and the reason is not really clear. Eggs hatched into warm, dry soil, so the larvae did not drown. IL Extension Entomologist Mike Gray suggests increased use of Bt corn and increased use of spraying this spring could have diminished the numbers.
But will corn rootworms come back next year? That is a good question, and without any of the Pherocon traps in your soybean fields, it may be difficult for you to make a good enough prediction to know what to do for the 2008 growing season. Anyone who used the traps will know whether to spend money on Bt hybrids or rootworm insecticides.
Soybean aphids may be partying in your field, but not in your neighbors' fields. The spottiness of the appearance of soybean aphids this year requires frequent and thorough field scouting. Authorities say the current intense heat and the natural predators may be sufficient to shut down their reproduction and control populations, but keep scouting.
If your soybeans need a rescue treatment from aphids, 250 per plant is still the threshold even at $8 beans. Entomologists say because a week long lagtime in getting a field sprayed is built into the threshold. And they contend it's the economic injury level that is most directly affected by higher crop values and higher yields. For an update, review their newsletter at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=824 .
Soybean aphids, they are not, says Purdue entomologists, but whiteflies that may make you think you have an aphid problem. Experts are uncertain why they have suddenly appeared, but are doing little or no damage to your soybean plants, so don't worry.
SCN can reproduce on purple deadnettle, says Purdue weed scientist Bill Johnson. While you may have already heard that, Johnson says there are five other alternate winter hosts for SCN: henbit is a strong host, field pennycress is a moderate host, and shepherd's purse, small flowered bittercress, and common chickweed are weak hosts.
The annual questions about cupped soybean leaves are being asked. Spray drift, particularly from dicamba, is frequently blamed, but experts rarely blame it for the cause. Ohio State researchers say soybean yield is not generally reduced when minor symptoms occur. Spider mites and leaf hoppers have been know to cause the problem. In places where no herbicides were used they say, "We suspect that environmental conditions and soybean variety may have a significant role." Review: http://corn.osu.edu/#D
Early planted corn has enjoyed a warm summer, and Extension production specialist Emerson Nafziger says some hybrids will reach black layer with only 500 more growing degree days. Since August heat produces more GDDs than that, some corn will be maturing relatively early. He says loss of color means an end to the grain filling stage.
Protect your valuable crop when you store it. IL Extension's Ted Funk suggests: 1) Look for sunlight and seal holes and water leaks. Don't seal over aeration vents. 2) Vacuum bin's interior, clean aeration ducts, and clean around the bin's exterior. 3) Service aeration ducts, fans, and vents to ensure proper operation.
Maintain low grain temperature says ag engineer Ted Funk. Insects curtail feeding and reproduction below 70, mold slows its growth below 40, and grain storage length can be doubled for every 10 degrees that it is cooled. The best time to use aeration to cool the grain is when the air temperature is 15 degrees below the grain temperature.
Wheat prices are increasing, when they should be decreasing, says Mike Woolverton at Kansas State, and he says that could continue until next summer, for several reasons: 1) Production problems in China, Canada, and Eastern Europe, has end users looking at very low world wheat stocks, especially of good quality milling and baking wheat. 2) USDA recently announced it was resurveying wheat producers in KS and OK due to persistent rains that prevented harvest and sharply increased the abandonment rate. 3) USDA did not include that information in the pre-harvest survey and is likely to result in a lower estimate of U.S. winter wheat production in the August report. 4) If dry growing conditions persist in Australia and Argentina, upward pressure on wheat price may continue until the Northern Hemisphere harvest next summer.
The eastern half of IN is in a drought, but Purdue economist Chris Hurt says 2007 farm income could be the 2nd highest on record. He says that is due to higher crop prices and near-normal yields in some parts of the state. Those parts of the state will have a shortage of grain storage because corn acreage rose 20% along with high yields.
Public policy will feel pressure if there is a 20% or more shortfall in corn production next year, says IL economist Darrel Good. "Would the market be allowed to allocate the crop among users or would such a shortfall in corn production induce government intervention? The financial implications of high corn prices for livestock producers might evoke intervention in the allocation of supplies between domestic livestock producers and processors of corn. Pressure for limitations on exports might also emerge."
Most cattle numbers are down, says John Lawrence at Iowa State, and that makes him wonder what happened to the "10 year" cattle cycle, since we should be in a growth phase. "In the past three years the price of feeder cattle and fed cattle has set new record highs and yet the beef herd expansion remained in the doldrums. He wonders if the "building stage" of the cycle was just replaced by a slower cattle inventory reduction.
High quality pigs, unable to quickly reach market weight, may suffer from respiratory disease says Extension Vet Dr. Larry Firkins. It "decreases average daily gain and feed efficiency while increasing mortality, lightweight pigs, and days to market." Firkins says diagnose and control pathogens at weaning before they decrease pig performance.
Mark your calendar: A Grass Energy Crop seminar will be Aug. 8, at Richland CC, Decatur, IL, featuring conservation and energy speakers and producers. Information about grasses, carbon credits, and compensation. Details: www.agwatershed.org .
Mark your calendar: ManureTech 2007 will be Aug. 21 at the Dairy Forage Research Center at Prairie du Sac, WI. Tour, demo, and display info: www.wimanuremgt.org.
Mark your calendar: Farm Progress Show, Decatur, IL, August 28-30.
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
