A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, July. 13, 2007, Vol. 9 No. 12

Start your day at: www.Farmgate.uiuc.edu , a blog for farm decision-makers.

"Your Virtual Research Assistant."

• USDA's Supply Demand Report yesterday raised 2007/08 corn supply to 14 bil. bu. as 2.5-mil. more acres raised production by 380 mil. bu. Old crop carryout rose by 150 mil. bu. to 1.1 bil. Feed and residual dropped 100 mil. bu. reflecting disappearance in the June 29 Stocks Report. Exports dropped 50 mil. bu. due to slower export shipments even as export sales and outstanding balances indicated strong demand for old-crop supplies. The season average price dropped 30¢ to a marketing year range of $2.80 to $3.40.
• The USDA report projected soybean production at 2.625 bil. bu., down 120 mil. bu., since harvested area dropped 2.8 mil. acres in the June 29 Acreage Report. Lower production and reduced carry-in leaves new crop ending stocks at 245 mil. bu. The season-average price for 2007/08 is projected at $7.25 to $8.25 per bu., up 60¢.
• USDA estimated wheat production at 2.138 bil. bu., down 29 mil. from the June estimate, but boosted by an additional 10 mil. bu. carry-in. Winter wheat production is lowered 48 mil. bu. as heavy June rains reduced yields in KS and OK. Lower hard red winter wheat production is partly offset by higher soft red winter wheat production. Exports for 2007/08 are raised 50 mil. bu. as competing exporters have less to sell. The season-average price range is raised 30¢ on each end to $4.80 to $5.40 per bu.
• Western Cornbelt crops may get thirstier says IA State's Elwynn Taylor, who says low pressure is settling into the Gulf of Alaska. "When this persists rain is short north of a line from Kansas City to Chicago. This may become a serious factor this year. With that risk to the western Cornbelt and a return of the Bermuda High to a too far west position, risk of below trend Cornbelt yield is increasing, but is not yet the likely outcome."
• IA State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor estimates a 50/50 chance for a 152 bu. national yield as of July 2. The chance of a yield above 163 bu. is 27%, the chance of drought yield below 133 bu. is 23%, and the chance of exceeding the 148.4 bu. trend is 54%. He bases that on: initial subsoil moisture, a statistical risk of widespread drought, the shift from El Nino to neutral, and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. He says corn conditions are similar to that of years that exceeded yield trends.
• Continuing drought in the eastern Cornbelt is threatening yields. Ohio St. agronomists say most of the corn is at the point of pollination, with insufficient moisture supply:
  1) 4 days of stress at the 12-14th leaf stage has the potential of reducing yields by 5-10%.
  2) 4 days of moisture stress at tassel emergence has the potential to reduce yields10-25%.
  3) 4 days of moisture stress at pollen shed has the potential to reduce yields 40-50%.
  4) 4 days of drought at the blister stage has the potential of reducing yields 30-40%.
  5) 4 days of drought at the dough stage has the potential of reducing yields 20-30%.
• Check your pollination progress. Carefully remove the husks from the ear, making sure you do not disturb the silks. After removing all the husks, grasp the butt end of the ear and give it 2-3 vigorous shakes. Silks leading to fertilized kernels will break easily at the kernel. Consequently, ears with only a few remaining silks attached have been properly pollinated. But ears with numerous silks still attached have yet to receive pollen.
• Wait about 2 weeks after the end of pollen shed before making any yield estimates. If the kernels were fertilized, the small white blisters on the ear will be rapidly increasing in size. To tell if fertilization has occurred, slice the kernels longitudinally through the embryo side and look for the embryo. Only fertilized kernels will produce embryos.
• Crop dusters have been thicker than Japanese beetles over cornfields, where farmers fear loss of $3.50 corn from foliar diseases. At $2 corn, fungicides rarely pay off, but current economics need to be analyzed, by comparing spray cost to expected yield benefit at tasseling of the corn plant. Visit: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=793 .
• On the issue of foliar fungicides, IA State specialists urge farmers to make a checklist:
  1) Take note of the resistance to foliar disease of the hybrid being grown.
  2) Scouting will give a very good indication of the disease pressure in that field.
  3) Look for disease development on the lower leaves up to and including the ear leaf.
  4) Wet, warm conditions favor infection and spore production of northern leaf blight.
  5) Corn planted after mid-May will be at a greater risk for yield loss from foliar disease.
  6) Second year corn is more threatened by foliar disease pathogens that survive winters.
  7) Most fungicides are effective against disease for 14 to 21 days.
• Outsmarting corn rootworms is the next strategy being studied by entomologists. The plan calls for planting a strip of corn through or around soybean fields, attracting the adults to lay eggs in a death trap and reduce the potential problems the next year. The long-term goal of this research is to assess the potential value of trap crops in concert with Bt or soil insecticides to manage western corn rootworms more effectively.
• Western bean cutworm moths currently are laying eggs in cornfields and lay most of their eggs during peak moth flight, which usually occurs in mid-July. In 2006, peak moth flight generally occurred during the week of July 17-24. Based upon the occurrences of other insects in IL this year, you should expect peak moth flight earlier than last year.
  1) IA State Univ. site: http://www.ent.iastate.edu/trap/westernbeancutworm/isite
  2) Degree-day calculator for insect pests: http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/warm/pestdata/
  3) Identification Videos: http://www.ncipmc.org/teleconference/wbc2007/videos
• Japanese beetles have appeared in Biblical proportion in some areas, but instead of corn this year they are preferring soybeans. IL bugmeisters say, "The accumulated effect of previous and continuing defoliation could eventually exceed the published economic threshold of 20% defoliation during reproductive growth. With the price of soybeans what they currently are, this relatively conservative threshold probably is appropriate."
• Soybean aphids have caused more yawns than concerns this year, but populations are increasing in northeastern IA and southern MN, with entomologists urging farmers to be on the lookout if weather remains cool. The doubling time for soybean aphid populations is 2-3 days when temperatures are in the upper 70s and lower 80s, as forecast next week.
• 23 fungicides are now labeled for soybean rust. Headline and Quadris provided good control in 7 of 8 test plots in 2005, but USDA researchers said 2006 economic benefit with the use of Quadris or Headline fungicide was realized only 40% (10/25) and 25% (8/32) of the time, respectively. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=806 .
• Glyphosate resistant weeds may become more widespread, but compared to the need for conventional herbicides, the use of glyphosate is friendlier to the environment say IL researchers who looked at the degree of potency needed in the alternative herbicides. The researchers believe that dosage to achieve a 50% weed kill would increase more than 100 times in soybeans, and 500 times in cotton. With no-till, the use of glyphosate resistant seeds reduces the use of a herbicide with a 50% kill rate only in corn.
• The post mortem on 2007 wheat is dominated by the April freeze. IL Crop Specialist Emerson Nafziger says, "Except for the freeze, the spring weather was nearly ideal for wheat, with dry weather in most areas and warm temperature that hastened development. Without the freeze, we would very likely have had a new record yield." Nafziger said agronomists underestimated the ability of the crop to produce heads on secondary tillers.
• Near breakeven is the outlook for farrow-to-finish returns over the next 12 months. Purdue economist Chris Hurt says all costs should be covered, including family labor and full depreciation. Even though the hog price outlook has weakened somewhat with USDA's latest inventory report, lower corn price prospects have compensated. Over the next 12 months, Hurt is forecasting a slight profit of about $.50 per hundredweight.
• Hurt's pork profit prediction depends on feed costs. "Corn and soybean meal prices could still be dynamic over the next few weeks until the size of this summer's crops become clearer. Each $1 change in corn prices impacts national hog production costs by roughly $5/cwt." http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/070907.html .
• Livestock contributes a $3.1 bil. impact in IL, according to an in-depth Univ. of IL study. There are 40,070 livestock farms in IL, 26% commercial and 74% non- commercial. There is $1.939 billion direct output of livestock products, 29,400 full time equivalents of total employment, and $256.78 million of total tax contributions.
• The IL livestock sector had been in a 30 year decline which stabilized and showed some growth trends from 1999-2004 says economist Pete Goldsmith, "The dairy and beef herds are the 25th largest and it will be interesting to see if the availability of DDGS from the ethanol industry will bring those species back to IL. Opportunities may exist for livestock operations to co-locate with ethanol plants, to take advantage of low-cost feed supplies."