USDA's Acreage Report today indicated 92.888 mil. acres of corn were planted this spring, up 19% from 2006, and above the range of 89.85 and 91.70 million acresexpected by the market. USDA also reported 64.081 mil. acres of soybeans were planted this year, down 15% from the 2006 crop. That is well below the 66 to 69 mil. acre range expected by the market. The report was bullish for soybeans and bearish for corn.
USDA also released the Quarterly stocks report. Corn stocks were reported at 3.53 bil. bu. which is down 19% the 4.362 bil. bushels a year ago. Bean stocks were estimated at 1.09 bil. bu. which is up 10% from the 991 mil. bu. a year ago. Wheat stocks are estimated at 456 mil. bu. which is a 20% decline from the 572 mil. of a year ago.
The Kansas wheat harvest has low yields, low protein, low quality, and many abandoned acres says Kansas State's Mike Woolverton. Soggy wheat and weeds are even expected to prevent or delay planting of double-crop soybeans, but Woolverton says unusually good soil conditions may even increase double-crop bean acres elsewhere.
Wheat prices are not usually strong at harvest. Woolverton says there are worries about Great Plains production, concern about disease development in US spring wheat areas, and production problems in China and the Former Soviet Union compounded by low world carryover stocks are keeping upward pressure on wheat prices that may continue through the fall and winter until the Southern Hemisphere wheat harvest.
Don't forget the afternoon Hogs & Pigs report in Friday's hoopla over crop acreage. Missouri's Glenn Grimes believes the June 1 total herd to be up 2.3%, the market herd up 2.4% and the breeding heard up 0.9% from a year earlier. He says productivity growth in the US swine herd grew during the year ending in February, but at a rate of only .29% compared to the productivity of the prior four years, which was at 2.53% annually.
June hog slaughter will be up 4% from 2006, says Missouri's Grimes. And he believes fall slaughter will be up 2-4% more than expected. That is because of the increased availability of vaccine for circovirus and less death loss from it, which puts more hogs on the market. Grimes says, "That much increase in production will likely push hog prices into the upper $30s to low $40s for the fourth quarter even with a strong demand."
Feed costs make differences at the meat counter say Missouri economists. Distillers' dried grain prices in northwest IA have declined $20 per ton in the last 10 weeks, while corn prices have increased $20 per ton during the same period. For the week ending June 15, the price of DDG per ton is over $40 less than corn. "This decrease in DDG price is increasing the relative competitiveness of the cattle industry to pork and chicken."
With corn prices expected steady through the end of the year and variable cattle prices, Iowa State Livestock Economist Shane Ellis says, "Feeder cattle prices in the 3rd quarter will be less than those of a year ago, but still above the ten year average. Third quarter prices are expected to be 5 to 10% lower than a year ago. 4th quarter feeder cattle prices will be similar to those of last year after harvest corn prices dramatically increased."
Cow-calf producers should see another profitable year says IA Extension's Ellis. That is because feeder cattle supplies may be slightly lower this year, from fewer beef cows calving than a year ago. This may also help offset some of the weaker feeder cattle demand created by higher feed costs. However, he says it may be advisable to use some form of marketing strategy that will mitigate the risk of increased corn prices.
Japanese beetles are emerging and will be with us for a while. Individual beetles can live for 30 to 45 days. Because the beetles emerge from the soil over time, populations of Japanese beetles will be present in any given area for several weeks, well into August. If pollen and silks are unavailable, they'll feed on leaves, but cause minimal damage there.
Scouting is imperative to determine when your corn is being threatened either by corn rootworm beetles or Japanese beetles. Densities of at least 5 corn rootworm adults per plant typically are required to affect pollination in commercial corn fields. Treatment decisions need to be considered when 3 or more Japanese beetle adults per ear are present and pollination is not complete. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=785 .
Of most concern is the intensity of beetles clipping silks and the level of moisture stress in a field. Extension entomologist Mike Gray says, "Pay close attention to the amount of silk tissue protruding from the tips of ears. When ½ to 1 inch of fresh silk remains and soil moisture is abundant, successful pollination is likely occurring. Seed-production fields are likely to be at greater risk of economic losses caused by silk clipping."
Corn rootworm beetles will be eating corn silks for several weeks, mating and laying eggs in soil cracks around the bases of corn. Eggs are dormant until next spring when they will hatch and the larvae will search again for corn roots. Scout your fields for adult corn rootworm activity to determine rootworm risk in 2008. If the number of beetles per plant exceeds an average of one then plan for control measures next year.
Much of the rootworm population is now full-sized larvae, which means they eat more and usually feed at the critical nodal root area. Nodal root systems are necessary for anchoring corn, especially when rapid vegetative growth occurs just before pollination. Beware of high winds because poorly anchored roots systems will cause plants to topple.
Its name is Binodoxys communis. But you can call it a friend, if your soybeans are susceptible to soybean aphids. It is a tiny parasitoid wasp that controls soybean aphids in China, and has been reared here in the US by entomologists who will be releasing it into the environment in several weeks to biologically control soybean aphids in the Cornbelt.
Hero insecticide has been approved by federal regulators for control of many corn pests. While it is not labeled for soybeans, Extension entomologists say is also has efficacy for controlling soybean pests. FMC may be still awaiting that regulatory permission. Check the rate application on corn at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=789
Scouting is also imperative to check your soybean fields for Asian rust. There are hundreds of sentinel plots around the Cornbelt, but you may see it first. It is actively reproducing in LA, TX, and Mexico, and recent storms coming up the Mississippi Valley could have brought some of the spores into the Cornbelt. Get yourself a 20X hand lens and regularly check the USDA website for soybean rust info at: www.sbrusa.net .
Soybean rust first appears on the bottom of the plant with some lesions unlike other crop rusts. First is a pustule that, using the 20X hand lens, looks like a little volcano; it has tan spores that are produced from the top of the pustule. The second lesion may be reddish brown with no spores evident and it is also on the underside of the leaf. Scout weekly.
If considering a corn fungicide, dry weather means the fungus spores might have been delayed. Purdue specialists say, "Had June been wetter, now is the time that lesions of gray leaf spot and northern corn leaf blight would be showing up on lower leaves of corn. Because spores were probably not being produced on residue until recently, the initial appearance of symptoms will be delayed this year." Purdue's Greg Shaner says, "There are no reliable thresholds or clear rules as to when a fungicide should be applied."
The foliar fungicide Headline is being credited by some with increasing yield even where there is no fungus to control. Extension's Carl Bradley says there is no way to check that claim, "We have clear evidence that such an effect can take place, but because it's likely to be a product of complex interactions between crop stress level, weather, and previous growing conditions, we do not know in advance, based on current knowledge, when it will happen." Read more: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=793 .
Will short corn yield less? Extension Specialist Emerson Nafziger says the canopy's ability to capture sunlight is the key. "There is a general idea that tall corn means high yields. I think that the key is not how tall the plants end up, but rather how complete the canopy ends up being. Shorter plants have a tendency to have less complete canopies."
The synchrony of pollen shed and silk appearance is shown by how early silks appear after the tassel has appeared (two to three days is good), says IL Extension's Nafziger, and based on this the crop is in great shape to pollinate with few problems. A return to slightly cooler temperatures during pollination, with highs in the 80s, will be favorable as well, especially if night temperatures fall into the uppers 50s. Check your thermometer.
Cure your wet spots. IL Extension's Bob Frazee says by installing a well-planned drainage system on poorly-drained fields, you get less flooding in low areas; less surface runoff; more time for performing field operations; improved soil structure; better soil aeration and greater oxygen concentration; enhanced root development; higher yields; improved crop quality; and greater fertilizer efficiencies, especially for applied nitrogen.
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
