A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, June. 22, 2007, Vol. 9 No. 9

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"Your Virtual Research Assistant."

• June 29 will be a big day for USDA reports. At 7:30 a.m. (CDT) the Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released. The acreage report will indicate whether more than 90 mil. acres of corn were planted. The Stocks report will detail corn feed use to date. View the reports Friday at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/index.asp .
• Also on June 29, at 2 p.m. (CDT) a report on the Ethanol Co-Products used for Livestock Feed and the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released. The Ethanol Co-Products will help reconcile past corn fed and help forecast future corn feed needs. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will indicate the number of hogs to feed.
• Some private corn yield projections have been in the 155-157 bu. range, reports Iowa State's Bob Wisner, who says that is despite all the poor ground that was planted to corn and all of the acreage with second year corn and its 9-12% yield drag. Comparatively, the 2006 yield of 149.1 was the second highest. The ag economist says, "If the private yield projections prove correct, new-crop corn prices would have a large down-side risk."
• Many in the grain trade, USDA, and other analysts have expected China to soon shift from corn exporter to importer, as it did with soybeans several years ago, according to Bob Wisner. "If that shift occurs in the next few years, it will create a need for extra cropland to be shifted into corn, and will be another upward influence on corn prices." www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/documents/6_15_IFO_000.pdf
• Though the US has cut bean acres way back this year, projected US ending stocks are more than adequate, says Jim Hilker at Mich. State. "Projected world ending stocks for 2007-08 are expected to be down, but still as high as last year's record. South America is expecting a bigger crop to make up some of the US cutback, but not nearly all of it. But if soybean prices stay high another year, and Brazil cuts its interest rate as discussed, there is lots of room for more soybeans." More: http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
• The challenge for beans is that basis is still very wide, says South Dakota State's Allen May. "Unless there lower production and reduced US and world carryover, there is little indication at the present time of basis getting significantly better any time soon. However, one cannot necessarily look at the prospect of $7.50-$7.70 new crop beans and turn one's nose up at that kind of price." http://econ.sdstate.edu/Extension/soybean.htm .
• Wheat prices are now officially higher than at anytime since 1996 and represent the best pricing opportunity since prices reached the mid $6.00 range in April of 1996 says May. "However, this massive upturn in price in such a short period of time is very prone to a downturn of the same magnitude." http://econ.sdstate.edu/Extension/wheat.htm
• Iowa State's Wisner suggests some key market indicators to watch in the near term:
  1) Watch the 6-10 day weather forecasts because drought is becoming a serious concern. Rain would weaken prices, but dryness could add further upside potential for 2-3 weeks.
  2) Watch export numbers to see if corn prices are slowing demand. Soybean exports remain strong relative to a year earlier, but are expected to slow in the weeks ahead.
  3) Watch the June 29 USDA acreage report to see if corn acres grew and bean acres shrunk from the March report. Opinions on actual planted acreage are strong both ways.
  4) Watch the June 29 USDA stocks report for corn feeding from March to May. Corn feeding in the first half of the marketing year was slightly below a year earlier.
• The Drought Monitor indicates the eastern Cornbelt, including the southeastern 2/3 of IL and the bulk of MN & WI are either abnormally dry or are in a moderate drought. View the map: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html . Moderate to heavy rain is expected in the southern Great Lakes region June 20 – 25 and the middle and lower Ohio Valley. Other areas currently experiencing dryness and drought are expected to receive light to scattered moderate amounts at best and above normal temperatures June 26-30.
• Corn under water stress from midmorning produces very little sugar during that day, says Extension Specialist Emerson Nafziger. "That means that the plant has little ability to produce more growth, whether the growth is roots or leaves and stem. The symptom of this that we can see is the reduction in top growth that has been evident in the most stressed fields in the past week." And he says root growth also has been diminished.
• Except where there has been some death of leaf tissue from dry weather, Production Specialist Nafziger says loss in yield potential has been relatively minor so far. "Good yields are still possible, but to be realized, above-average growing conditions will be required, including a return to good rainfall amounts and distribution, favorable conditions into late September, and lack (or control) of insect and disease attack."
• Diligent scouting is mandatory, says Nafziger. He says given the water shortages, it is important to know when pollen shed begins. "Silks should appear within a day or two of the start of pollen shed. Because the rate of appearance of silks is likely to be slowed in fields with dry soils, and because late appearance of silks means less pollen available, it will be critical to watch fields to see if insects are eating silks. They might land in tassels and eat pollen as well, but the real danger is that they eat silks off to prevent pollination."
• During later vegetative stages, when kernel numbers per ear are determined, plants become more sensitive to stress. Ohio State agronomist Peter Thomison says four days of stress (i.e. corn wilted for four consecutive days) at the 12th-14th leaf stage has the potential of reducing yields by 5-10 percent. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#F .
• Corn typically needs 20 to 22 inches of water and water requirements vary according to the stage of development says Ohio State's Peter Thomison. "Corn reaches its peak water use during pollination when plants are silking. Every day from the 12-leaf stage to the dent stage, the corn plant needs two to three tenths of an inch of water per day."
• Morning glories are getting harder to control say Purdue weed specialists, because less atrazine and more glyphosate is being used. As adoption of Roundup Ready corn increases, it appears that growers have reduced reliance on soil applied atrazine premix herbicides. http://www.btny.purdue.edu/weedscience/2007/Morningglory07.pdf .
• Armyworms! Small, intense concentrations are being reported. IL & IA entomologists believe egg laying is concentrated where there is adequate foliage, that has escaped the drought. Subsequently, the armyworms will be concentrated, and because they can grow so fast, you may not see them until they are inflicting significant damage.
• Japanese beetles!! A beetle trap in southern IL caught 309,352 over 7 days, and 68,372 in a 24 hour period, causing entomologists to express concern about the potential for crop damage. As the degree day count increases toward the north, Japanese beetles will be emerging and clipping silks, assuming the droughty corn plants can even muster silks.
• If Japanese beetles can't find any corn silks, they'll visit bean fields. The economic thresholds for Japanese beetle control are 3+ beetles per ear (corn still pollinating) and 30% defoliation of soybeans before bloom, 20% defoliation during reproductive growth. Rescue treatments: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=779 .
• With corn rootworm adults appearing throughout the Midwest, many corn growers will get a good chance to compare the performance of their control efforts. Entomologists say there are striking differences between the Bt and non-Bt plots. Bt corn was faring much better and had considerably less leaf rolling than the non-Bt corn. Because of the very dry soil conditions the soil insecticides are facing a significant performance challenge.
• Computer models are indicating some good news about soybean rust for this year says rust guru X.B.Yang at Iowa State. For the rest of June computer models predict limited northward movement from known Louisiana sources because the predicted weather seems less favorable to the disease. Predicted favorability for soybean rust occurrence for Texas in June is less than 20%. He says July weather will be too hot for soybean rust to develop. More: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2007/6-11/rustoutlook.html .
• A June 8 freeze in NE had a variable effect on the corn crop. Fields or portions of fields that were stressed from dry conditions, recent postemergence herbicide treatments, or cultivation seemed to have suffered more frost injury than fields where corn plants were not stressed. Agronomists say recovery depends on the degree of freeze injury, duration of the low temperatures, soil water status, stage of crop development and even hybrid.
• Environmental researchers in IL, MN, IA, LA, and other universities have called for shifting some farm program payments away from annual crops and toward perennial crops, to modify the whole production and subsidy system to improve environmental performance and to financially reward farmers for the public benefits they provide. The program would focus on watersheds. More is at: www.sciencemag.org .