A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, May. 18, 2007, Vol. 9 No. 4

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• USDA's May 11 crop report lowered the expected 2007 crop yield about 4 bu. to 150.3, but IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good says that was in part to a new calculation formula. USDA says it is "an econometric model fit over 1990-2006 using a trend variable, July rainfall and temperature, and planting progress as of mid-May."
• Darrel Good says the methodology differs from last year that based the yield calculation on a "linear trend fit over 1960-2005 (1988 omitted), adjusted for 2006 planting progress." The projection this year is about 2 bu. less than expected by the market, but is about 1.5 bu. above a projection based on the simple linear trend from 1960-2006. Good says the trend yield for 2007 may be overstated based on a relative short history.
• The USDA report forecast the 2007-08 marketing year average farm prices in a range of $4.35 to $4.95 for wheat, $3.10 to $3.70 for corn, and $ 6.50 to $7.50 for soybeans. Darrel Good says the futures market reflects average new crop cash prices at or above the high end of these ranges. He says that would be $3.75 for corn and $7.90 for beans. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/051407.html .
• There will be more beans than the 67 mil. acres projected by USDA, says Purdue's Chris Hurt, who expects failed wheat and delayed corn acres going into beans, along with increased double crop acreage. That means weaker fall prices, even if the market is now stronger. http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=43 .
• Marketing old crop beans is a priority to Chris Hurt, who says there is a lot on hand and many producers are strong holders. Some producers are going to hold on to those stocks awaiting the defining weather of July-August. This means there is a higher likelihood that prices will drop rapidly after early-July if weather threats have not arisen by that time.
• The May Crop report forecast the US wheat crop at 2.2 bil. bu., up 20% from 2006. The national yield is expected to average 41.7 bu. per acre; up 3 from last year, on 11% more harvested acres. The projected world ending stocks are 6% lower than last year. Wheat exports are expected to be strong because of tight supplies in other major wheat exporting countries. Kansas State's Mike Woolverton says the projected farmgate price of $4.35 to $4.95 reflects the battle for acres with corn that will be continued into the next crop year.
• More ethanol plants will be built in the Eastern Cornbelt, says Ohio State economist Matt Roberts, because of changing relationships in corn prices. Roberts says corn in the Western Cornbelt has been 40-50¢ cheaper than in the Eastern Cornbelt, creating a better economic environment for ethanol plants. He says the difference has diminished to 20-30¢ and now 8-15 new ethanol plants are planned for Ohio, even without tax incentives.
• Grain storage will be a problem with 500 mil. to 1 bil. more bushels of corn compared to 2004, the last time we faced serious storage and transportation issues says Ohio State economist Matt Roberts. "We really won't know how this will all play out until this fall, but it's safe to say that there will be more grain storage pressure in corn-intensive areas like Iowa and Illinois." He also expects a shift in typical corn distribution channels.
• If your corn will be sold to an ethanol plant, the plant manager will have wanted it planted by May 1. That is the date when the ethanol yield begins to decline, says Wisconsin Agronomist Joe Lauer, "From a processing perspective, planting dates also affect recoverable ethanol per bushel of grain. Recoverable ethanol ranged from 2.8 to 2.9 gallons per bushel during May, but only 2.6 to 2.8 gallons per bushel for corn planted in June. So June planted corn has both reduced ethanol yield and recoverable ethanol."
• Soybean rust specialist X.B. Yang at Iowa State says 2007 may be different from the past two years, since the rust has been discovered on some Louisiana kudzu. "If an outbreak develops from this early occurrence before the end of June in Louisiana, the risk of soybean rust will be quite different from the last two years. In the last two growing seasons, the weather was dry and the disease moved slowly in the Mississippi Basin."
• There is not enough soybean rust in Louisiana for an outbreak says X.B. Yang, and it will have to spread out from the Gulf Coast by the end of June before it will get too hot for it. He says the rust will need 12 days of rain each in July and August to cause problems, which is more than normal and the 2007 forecast is for normal precipitation.
• With the discovery of viable Asian soybean rust in Louisiana, Cornbelt soybean researchers have pumped up the sentinel detection network and added new elements to the official website at: www.sbrusa.net . It also includes a "Good Farming Practices Documentation" tool to assist producers in substantiating that good farming practices were used to manage soybean rust should producers need to file an insurance claim.
• A tiny wasp, found in China, will be released into six states later this year as a biological control for soybean aphids. This natural enemy has been licensed by US and Canadian authorities for release into the environment to help control the spread of soybean aphids. The wasp controlled aphid populations in the Orient, but without the presence of the wasp in North America, aphid populations have attacked soybeans unthreatened.
• IL entomologists have expressed new concern that "the principles of integrated pest management (IPM) in corn and bean agroecosystems are increasingly being ignored. Of particular concern is the lack of integration of pest management tactics and the over reliance on single-tactic approaches without any scouting input." They urge use of scouting and economic thresholds: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=717
• If your farm has recorded 300 degree-days, you might be seeing black cutworms eating your corn. Rescue treatments are warranted when 3% or more of the plants have been cut. A guide to treatment is at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=703 .
• Wheat fields should be monitored for armyworms, which are ravenous. Rescue treatment is warranted if you have 6 or more per foot of row before they begin cutting wheat heads. If Mother Nature destroyed your wheat, the armyworms won't be happy and may take out their frustration on your corn, so scout your corn and any grass near it.
• Continuous corn will need your help with fertility management. IL Fertility Specialist Fabian Fernandez says conservation tillage and no-till systems leave a large quantity of residue causing cooler temperatures and wetter soil that delays germination and root development. The roots' ability to take up nutrients is decreased due to a smaller volume of the soil being exploited by the root system, a decline in the ability of the crop to actively take up nutrients, and slower movement of nutrients in the soil.
• Manage your fertility for continuous corn differently than in a corn-soybean rotation. Extension's Fabian Fernandez says it may need extra nitrogen, but not always, and it is important to get the maximum return to nitrogen by using the N-rate calculator at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nRate.aspx . Also corn residue has less nitrogen than soybean residue and retards its availability for the next corn crop.
• If weeds have begun to emerge before a soil-applied herbicide has been moved into the soil by rain, Extension Weed Specialist Aaron Hager says it may be time to consider additional management options. Certain soil-applied herbicides may still provide some control of emerged weeds if precipitation occurs soon, but if emerged weeds exceed 2 to 3 inches, a postemergence herbicide application may be necessary to control them.
• A rotary hoe might solve your dry soil and weed problems says Hager of IL Extension:
  1) Rotary hoeing is most effective while weeds are still in the "white stage."
  2) Once the weed has emerged and grown roots, the hoe's effectiveness is reduced.
  3) Hoeing is generally most effective when done at speeds of 8 to 12 miles per hour.
  4) A second rotary hoeing 7 to 10 days after the first might improve weed control.
  5) Hoeing may also aid crop emergence by breaking soil crusts after planting.
• Has your corn been nipped by herbicide, even though that wasn't supposed to happen? IL Weed Specialist Aaron Hager says there could be many reasons why that happened, ranging from the genetics of the hybrid, to environmental conditions, to the type of herbicide, and a blend of all of those. If your crop shows potential herbicide damage, consider his analysis at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=723 .
• Living expenses went up 4.3% in 2006 for farm families, averaging $54,996 for nearly 1,200 IL farms. That did not include another $4,700 for capital purchases. Over half was non-farm income which averaged $29,614 in 2006. Net non-farm income is up 81% in the last 10 years. 2006 income tax was $10,251 and medical expense was $7,665.
• Mark your calendar for June 13-14 when the Universities of IL, WI, MN & Iowa State will host the 4-state Dairy Conference at Dubuque, IA. For registration and information: http://www.livestocktrail.uiuc.edu/dairynet/eventDisplay.cfm?ContentID=9 .

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