Have soybean prices hit their highs, wonders Extension's Darrel Good? "The average cash price of soybeans in central IL reached a 2006-07 marketing year high of $7.505 on Feb. 22, declined to $6.775 on Apr. 24, and stood at $7.005 on May 4. The recovery since Apr. 24 has resulted from a marginal 4¢ strengthening of the basis (which remains unusually weak) and a 19¢ increase in July futures." His latest weekly newsletter is at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/050707.html .
Darrel Good says, "The average country elevator spot cash bid for soybeans is 22.7% higher than the price of a year ago, even though the basis is about 15¢ weaker." Soy oil prices are 28% higher than they were a year ago, but meal values are only 5% more. He says cash bean prices in Central IL have never established a marketing year high in Feb., as has been the case so far this year, but it will take summer crop concerns to exceed it.
Volatility will increase in the corn market, says Michigan State's Jim Hilker. "If corn plantings had gone along at the average of the past five years, we would have taking some of the volatility out of the market, but they didn't. Volatility in the markets, generally means opportunity, the problem is timing. Consider using the likely corn price volatility to price the remainder of your 2006 corn by the middle of July, when the yield picture becomes clearer." More: http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm#corn .
Wheat traders will be watching today's crop report for the first indication of acreage and yield. Hilker at Mich. St. says, "The world wheat stocks are at the lowest level in a couple of decades due to our poor 2006 HRW wheat crop and the disastrous Australian 2006-07 wheat crop. At this point a normal world wheat crop would be just fine, but the world needs decent wheat crop or better this year to keep prices under control."
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
