A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, May. 4, 2007, Vol. 9 No. 2

Start your day at: www.Farmgate.uiuc.edu , a blog for farm decision-makers.

"Your Virtual Research Assistant."

• Next Friday's Crop Report will be focused on USDA's estimates of consumption for the current marketing year, says IL Extension's Darrel Good. He says there is strong evidence that corn exports will surpass USDA's current forecast of 2.25 bil. bu. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/043007.html .
• Good says harvested acreage will likely be projected at 83.2 mil., but more uncertainty centers around the yield projection due to the uncertainty about the likely planting progress adjustment or any possible change in the methodology for calculating the trend. A projection near 150 bu. would result in a production forecast of 12.48 bil. bu.
• Regarding soybeans, Darrel Good says changes in projections of use for the current marketing year will likely be small, if any changes are made at all. And he adds, "The large domestic inventory of soybean oil and meal along with the large South American harvest should temper (price) expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. The outlook for a record level of year ending stocks of soybeans has not changed."
• The corn market could weaken says Iowa State Specialist Bob Wisner. "Index fund traders as well as other fund traders have reduced their long positions in corn in response to the sharp increase in intended US corn plantings and projections of reduced domestic corn feeding. With favorable planting conditions in the next two weeks, a negative technical picture would likely bring further downward pressure on corn prices. December 2007 corn futures appear likely to test the $3.50 support level on charts."
• Wisner expects less corn and more beans than in USDA's March 30 intentions report. "These changes would bring 2.2% fewer corn acres and 1.5% more soybean acres. At those levels, US corn acreage would be 13% above last year, and soybean plantings would be down 10%. Small changes in either the US yield or acreage this year can have substantial impact on 2008 corn carryover stocks and prices for both corn and beans."
• Agrisure! More elevators say they won't take it, processors don't want it, and a railroad says it won't haul it, all because it is not yet approved for export. Syngenta says farmers planting it have to find their own market for it, as indicated in the sales agreement. If you have planted some of it, Iowa State Extension specialists are suggesting actions to take:
  1) Sell it to neighboring livestock feeders or feeding it on site may be the best option.
  2) Confirmation that a buyer will take it lessens your potential liability later on.
  3) Keep accurate field records, and segregate it by bin to avoid co-mingling at harvest.
  4) Export markets have a zero tolerance, and beware .5% will cross pollinate at 115 feet.
• Glyphosate is one way, but Purdue Weed Specialist Bill Johnson says to eliminate a failed wheat crop before planting corn, his recommendation is the use of Gramoxone Inteon (3-4 pt/A)+ atrazine (at least 1.5 lb ai/A) + 2,4-D(1-2 pt/A) if one desires to plant corn as soon as possible. This mixture is more expensive than glyphosate + 2,4-D, but could provide a more rapid burndown of the wheat and minimize the early-season competition between the remaining wheat and newly planted corn.
• Your failed wheat won't easily disappear, says Purdue's Johnson. "A follow up treatment may be necessary for complete control. It likely will not pay to use reduced herbicide rates. Also, it may be advisable to wait until we have a day or two of daytime air temperatures above 50 to get the maximum herbicidal activity out of the products."
• The wheat market will be watching for next Thursday's report on the Kansas crop by the Wheat Quality Council. USDA has reduced its ratings from 77% good to excellent before the April freeze to only 34% good to excellent. Kansas State specialists say wheat will produce some secondary tillers that will give a ragged crop, causing some wheat growers to start buying back their forward contracts for lack of sufficient production.
• Frozen US wheat and dry conditions in the northern Hemisphere, have not caused the International Grain Council to reduce projected global wheat production. But ICG raised global wheat usage due to more feeding of wheat and an increase in the use of wheat for ethanol production, particularly in Canada and the EU. Overall, the IGC concluded that global wheat production and usage would be about even this year, leaving global ending stocks unchanged at the current low level, which has to be seen as bullish for wheat price.
• Of the major corn-producing states, IL has the highest percentage planted (IA, NE, IN, and OH were all less than 20% planted as of April 29), meaning that IL farmers may be better able to benefit from price increases that may come from further planting delays in the Corn Belt. Extension Specialist Emerson Nafziger expects yield declines of 1 bu. per acre for each day of delay for the first 10 days of May, 2 bu. per acre per day for the middle 10 days of May, and 3 bu. per acre per day for the last 10 days of this month.
• The quick answer is no, to the question of should you swap seed for a shorter season hybrid. Iowa State specialists say corn hybrids can adjust to later planting dates:
  1) As planting is delayed, all hybrids shortened the time between planting and silking.
  2) All hybrids, when planted late, increased the number of days between silking and maturity
  3) Hybrids change the length of time from planting to silking more than silking to maturity
• Has the rain disrupted your planting and herbicide application schedule? IL Weed Specialist Aaron Hager says many, but not all, soil-applied corn herbicides can be applied after corn emergence. Not all of these herbicides will control emerged weeds, so additional management procedures (use of a rotary hoe or a postemergent herbicide) may be needed in situations where weeds also have emerged. Review his chart which indicates maximum corn height: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=707 .
• Timing is everything and with corn being planted later this spring than usual, it's entirely possible that black cutworm larvae will have developed to the cutting instars by the time corn seedlings are most susceptible to cutting damage. Entomologists say leaf-feeding injury is not economic, but it is a precursor to stand-reducing cutting damage. Rescue treatment advice can be found at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=703 .
• Financial records of 2,640 IL farms show the average return to the operator's labor and management income in 2006 was $72,818. This is what remains from the operator's net farm income after a fair return to the operator's equity in machinery and land has been subtracted. The 2006 "farm wages" were $21,185 above their five-year average.
• Crop returns averaged $481 per tillable acre, $74 per acre higher than the 2005 crop returns. Returns to operator's labor and management averaged $78,899 on grain farms, $66,149 on hog farms, $17,120 on dairy farms and a negative $13,600 on beef farms. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo07_09/fefo07_09.html .
• Crop costs on the 2,640 farms averaged $125.26 per acre in 2006 compared to $125.72 in 2005. Fertilizer increased 2.5%, pesticides decreased 14% and seed increased 9%. Compared to 2002, fertilizer costs have increased 50%, pesticides 1% and seed 38%. Fuel and oil costs averaged $18.37 in 2006 compared to $16.50 in 2005 and $9.46 in 2002.
• Over 2,400 MN farms are included in a similar report, which indicates the average net farm income per farm in 2006 was $95,828, a 10% increase from 2005. Crop farm profits increased by an average of 48% to $106,941, mostly due to inventory values held for sale at the end of the year. The average farm's net worth increased by over $85,000. Profits on hog farms fell 6%, and beef farms, which include both cattle finishing and cow-calf operations, experienced a 13% decrease in net farm income to $50,128.
• If you are rained out of the field, and your shop and book work are all caught up, the Cornbelt Extension Specialists have created a series of free Internet-based videos that will help your understanding of the western bean cutworm, and the soybean aphid. These sites have a series of several short videos with titles that help you select your preferences.
  1) http://www.ncipmc.org/teleconference/wbc2007/videos/
  2) http://www.ncipmc.org/teleconference/soybean2007/videos/
• May is National Arthritis Awareness Month, and Purdue Safety Specialist Bill Field says, "About one-third of all farmers in this country have some form of arthritis that keeps them from doing the daily chores they would like to do because of either stiffness or pain in the joints." Purdue is offering a DVD for people to help understand arthritis and to provide practical tips on protecting joints, managing stress and modifying work practices. Order "Gaining Ground on Arthritis" at: http://www.ces.purdue.edu/new .
• It happened back in 2003, but cattle prices are once again over $100. Iowa State's Shane Ellis says, "Beef exports have increased significantly from last year, but are still well below the trade volume of 2003. View his comparisons of 2007 and 2003 at: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO%202007/5_1_IFO.pdf .