The weather is key to the market says Purdue's Chris Hurt. "Exports are still on a pace to exceed the USDA's current estimate of 2.25 billion bushels. The U.S. dollar remains weak which encourages foreign buyers. However, feed usage may be revised lower again as the livestock industry continues to make adjustments to the high corn prices. This leaves weather as the large swing factor." Read his monthly corn market newsletter at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/corn.asp?ID=41 .
Hurt says small weather problems can result in better prices. "Current price premiums for delivery into June and July are generally more than costs of interest, thus those with on-farm storage should price for later delivery. Holding perhaps 15% to 20% of old-crop inventory into mid-June for the possibility of weather concerns seems prudent this year."
Purdue's Chris Hurt says the historic weather odds are 1 in 6 that yields be in the low 140's, or less, helping December futures to exceed $5.00 in the late summer and fall. But he says odds are also 1 in 6 that yields would exceed 160 bushels. At 160 bushels per acre, December futures price would be expected to drop to perhaps $3.00.
Large stocks and a weak basis make soybean prices vulnerable, says Chris Hurt. July futures could move toward the $6.90 to $7.00 range compared to $7.40. With the current wide basis, this would mean cash prices might drop to $6.30 to $6.50 per bushel. Adding to sales of old crop soybeans would be advised now. Expect large supplies of soybeans to be unsold at the end of this summer. Expect a very weak basis from July through harvest.
Farmers in Lake Iowa or other wet areas with 2-8 in. of rain and 0 to 100% of corn planted have a variety of issues to address say Iowa State agronomists. Corn had not emerged, but with the hard rain creating a crusty soil, it may still not emerge very soon.
If your submerged fields have been planted, Iowa State specialists provide this advice: 1) Smaller seedlings are more vulnerable than larger seedlings, so survival is chancy. 2) Some hybrids will probably respond better than others, but it would be hard to tell. 3)A germinating seed is a living organism and as such requires oxygen to survive. 4) In flooded soil conditions, the oxygen supply will become depleted within 48 hours. 5) Cool air temperatures (less than 77o F) help to increase the possibility of survival. 6) Don't expect survival of germinating seeds to be greater than that of young plants. 7) When waters recede, confirm plant survival by examining the growing point. 8) The root and shoot should appear white or cream colored.Seeds should hold form. 9) Surviving plants will resume growth within 3 to 5 days after the water recedes.
As of April 15, the US corn crop has a 50/50 chance at 154 BPA says Iowa State weather specialist Elwynn Taylor. The chance of a yield above 163 BPA is 30% and the chance of drought (below 133 BPA) is 20%. The chance of exceeding the trend yield of148.4 BPA is 59%. The estimate considers the above average subsoil moisture in much of the Corn Belt, a statistical risk of widespread drought, the shift from El Nino toward neutral, and sea surface temperatures in the Central and North Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico. A possibly significant temperature anomaly should be evaluated in late May.
Corn planted in early April is beginning to emerge with the help of some growing degree days, says IL Crop Production Specialist Emerson Nafziger. But he's concerned about the recently planted corn. "Heavy rains that were falling April 25 and 26 may cause soil crusting in some planted fields, which may prove to be a bigger challenge to emergence than cold temperatures have been." Rotary hoeing may not be sufficient.
With the anxiety to get corn planted, Nafziger says compaction can become a year-long problem. "At some point it may become necessary to work and plant fields 'on the wet side' because the delay in planting corn will cause more yield loss than will poor soil conditions. But we're at least three weeks away from that date in Illinois."
If your soil is damp, Iowa State ag engineer Mark Hanna says lighten your springs. Wet, plastic soil is easily compacted. Virtually all planters have down pressure springs on closing wheels or discs. Spring pressure should be lighter in wet soil conditions to avoid compacting soil excessively in the seed zone. In wet soils, not as much surface pressure is required to establish seed-soil contact and moisture is readily available for germination. Read more: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/archives/2007/crop8/sidewall_compaction2.htm .
Prepare for soybean rust at the official USDA soybean rust website at: www.sbrusa.net IL rust guru Glen Hartman says, "Growers should check the map frequently as the spring season moves along. Rust will not show up out of nowhere. The key will be when the map begins to light up in northern Kentucky and Arkansas and southern Missouri. When that happens, they can take appropriate actions based on their own risk tolerance."
Black cutworms will be attacking young corn the first two weeks in May, based on intensive collections of moths in traps during the past 10 days. Entomologists say Herculex I corn hybrids are supposed to control them, along with Cruiser 250 and Poncho 250. However, Extension specialists are asking for farmer input on the success of those.
White grubs, which may be larvae of Japanese beetles, are being turned up in spring field work say Extension entomologists. They might create havoc later in the summer, but Japanese beetle larvae will likely not hurt corn seedlings. But if they are white grubs with 3-year life cycles they will feed on corn seedling roots and control is warranted. Check identification at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=697 .
If bean leaf beetles need to be controlled Iowa State entomologist Marlin Edwards says you have a choice to make: soybean yield can be improved if a seed treatment is used in place of an early-season foliar insecticide applied for bean leaf beetle. In contrast, seed quality was most consistently improved with an early- plus mid-season foliar application (targeting the over-wintered population and first generation). Read his analysis at: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2007/4-23/beanleafbeetle.html .
Armyworms moths are showing up in the southern reaches of the Cornbelt. Former wheat and grass pastures will be at risk from their larvae, so scouting for armyworms and symptoms of their feeding injury by mid-May should be on everyone's to-do list. No-till corn with grassy weeds or previous grass crops should be scouted for armyworm larvae.
Discard the economic threshold when armyworms begin feeding on freeze-damaged wheat or when weevils attack the freeze-damaged alfalfa. That's the advice of Kevin Steffey at the Univ. of IL, who says use your experience and adjust decisions about control with insecticides accordingly. You do the same thing for stressed corn and beans.
Cut your fuel bill with changes in your tillage and cultivation practices, says Extension educator Bob Frazee. http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/state/newsdetail.cfm?NewsID=6279 1) One tillage trip should provide adequate leveling of the soil and seedbed preparation. 2) Change to a no-till planting system where field conditions permit. 3) Reduce the depth of tillage if you are using a mulch-till or reduced-till system. 4) Combine pre-plant or pre-emergence herbicides with fertilizer for one trip. 5) Custom applicators offer efficiency in fertilizer and herbicide application. 6) Use post-emergence herbicides for annual grass and broad-leaf weed control. 7) Avoid unnecessary use of the cultivator for weed control. 8) Match field equipment to the appropriate sized tractor and avoid wasting horsepower. 9) General tractor maintenance and correct tire pressure improves fuel efficiency. 10) Examine use of the pick-up truck and avoid unnecessary trips to town.
What herbicides are on your shopping list? If your weeds are not worried, you have a resistance problem says Extension specialist Aaron Hager, who offers these tips: 1) A selection pressure for herbicide-resistant weeds occurs each time the same herbicide is applied to a particular field. (Such as the use Round-up for controlling all weeds.) 2) Rotating herbicides or tank-mixing herbicides may help slow the selection of glyphosate-resistant weeds, but it is unlikely to completely prevent becoming resistant. 3) Stewardship of glyphosate is easy to discuss, but it is more difficult to implement.
If time is short, agronomists say overall depth of NH3 injection was more important in reducing crop injury than was the amount of time between NH3 application and planting.
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
