"A sigh of relief" is how IL Extension's Darrel Good labels the corn market decline after the USDA Planting Intentions Report which forecast 90.545 mil. acres. "These numbers tend to alleviate worries that rapidly expanding ethanol production could result in shortages and extremely high corn prices in the year ahead. A prolonged period of high prices might force liquidation of livestock numbers and push retail meat prices higher.
90.545 mil acres of corn multiplied by trend yields could provide a surplus, but Darrel Good says trend yields are a bit deceptive, "Some believe that there is evidence that the trend US corn yield has been increasing at an increasing rate over the last 10 years and that a trend yield in 2007 would produce a crop near 13 bil. bu. Careful examination of recent yield patterns, however, suggests that trend yields have not been increasing at an increasing rate, but rather that weather has been generally favorable since 1996.
Spring weather could alter planting, but Darrel Good says summer weather will be dominant, "Ultimately, summer weather will be the dominant yield and price factor. For now, it appears that corn supplies will remain sufficient for another year, but the crop is not in the bin yet." http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/040207.html .
· At Iowa State, outlook specialist Bob Wisner says acreage switching is more complex this year, "If this year's corn planting progress lags significantly behind the average of the last few years, the recent strength in soybean prices may cause some intended corn acres to shift back into beans. However, the shift may be tempered by very high insured dollars per acre for corn under this year's crop revenue insurances. Read his newsletter: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO%202007/4_1_IFO.pdf .
Wisner and Good agree that corn stocks will be tight by Aug. 2008, "Our projections show stocks under these conditions remaining at a relatively low 3.1 to 3.7 weeks' supply at the end of Aug. Normal working stock needs are about 3.7 to 3.9 weeks' supply to maintain processing, feeding, and exports until new-crop corn is readily available." Regarding soybeans, Wisner says, "Adequate but gradually tightening soybean supplies are indicated for 2007-08, with supplies becoming quite tight in 2008-09."
Livestock feeders have been pleased with the 50¢ drop in corn prices during March, and Utah State's Dillon Fuez says that can reduce breakeven selling prices for yearling placements by $2/cwt or more. He agrees that hedging corn prices at these levels is still difficult to do based on historical levels available. "However, with the chance of continued price volatility, locking in corn prices and (eliminating) volatility is something producers may want to consider on the price weakness following last week's reports."
USDA's Hogs and Pigs Report, as of Mar. 1, and released last Friday, counted over 61 mil. head, up 1.3% from a year ago. Breeding swine now number just over 6 mil., up 1%. Market hogs inventories are over 55 mil. up 1.3% from last year. Pig crops in the past 2 quarters have been up 1.6%. Sow farrowing in the next quarter is expected to be steady to slightly lower, and then steady to slightly higher over the summer months.
Hog prices so far this year have been generous, says Iowa State's Shane Ellis. Retailers have been paying more for wholesale cuts, and that raises consumer prices. "Hogs have sold for almost 7% more this year than last. This is good news to hog producers as they are faced with feed costs 30 to 40% higher than the six year trend. Hog producers should expect prices to be fairly strong this summer following a trend similar to last year"
Frosty nights are a concern if your wheat is in the boot stage. If the head is well down in the canopy, protection comes from heavy vegetation and soil warmth says Extension's Emerson Nafziger. Wheat 12-18" or growing rapidly from extra nitrogen will be nipped by temperatures in the mid-20's. Lost leaf area means loss of full yield potential. If serious damage shows up a day later, the crop might still be useable for forage purposes.
Corn should be planted when soil temperatures are near 50 °F. Seed will absorb about 30% of its weight in water, and temperature has little effect on that says Iowa State. Root and shoot growth is correlated with soil temperature. In soil under 50 °F, seeds will readily absorb water, but not initiate root or shoot growth, leading to seed rots and poor emergence if poor seedbed conditions are prolonged. Low temperature causes stand variability. Read more at: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2007/4-2/cornplant.html .
Optimum planting depth prevents uneven stands: Plant between 1.5" to 2" deep to provide for frost protection and adequate root development, says Ohio State's Peter Thomison. In April, when the soil is usually moist and evaporation rate is low, seed should be planted no deeper than 1.5". When soils are warm and dry, corn may be seeded more deeply up to 2" on non-crusting soils. Read more: http://corn.osu.edu/#B .
Corn on corn enhances the chance for disease. Extension pathologists Terry Niblack and Carl Bradley say, "To reduce disease risk in corn-on-corn: 1) plant the best disease-resistant hybrids available; 2) scout fields for disease; and 3) if needed, apply a fungicide to control leaf diseases." There is no way to predict if a foliar fungicide will be needed.
Wet weather and warm temperatures have brought a flush of winter annuals needing to be addressed before planting. Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says control your weeds before planting. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=669 . 1) 2,4-D and dicamba require 7 days before planting, some burndowns require a rain. 2) Control horseweed before planting and beware of possible glyphosate resistance. 3) Soil-residual herbicides can be tank-mixed with most burndown herbicides. 4) Effects of glyphosate action can be slowed down by current cool temperatures.
Everything you wanted to know about glyphosate and weeds is contained in a new website assembled by universities and the USDA. It includes news about resistant weeds and offers rate and tank-mix calculators. http://www.glyphosateweedscrops.org/ .
Alfalfa fields in the southern swath of the Cornbelt may have infestations of alfalfa weevil. The economic threshold for spray is 25% tip feeding and/or 3 larvae per stem. Tips on scouting, alternatives for control, and economic-based decisions are available at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=663 .
Plans are underway for a summit conference at the University of IL to discuss the impact of biofuels on the livestock industry. Topics include: updates on the current situation and perspectives on how the situation will change in the future, as well as the supply and demand outlook for the related feedstuffs. Information about the Urbana conference on May 23 & 24 is at: http://www.livestockandrenewablefuels.uiuc.edu .
Operators making improvements on rented land should protect their financial interest on grain bins, drainage tile, or limestone. While state laws may vary on addressing ownership, Extension ag law specialist Don Uchtmann recommends a lease amendment that identifies the improvement, its value, and ownership before spending any money. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/legal/articles/ALTBs/ALTB_07-03/ALTB_07-03.pdf
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
