A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Feb. 9, 2007, Vol. 8 No. 42

Start your day at: www.Farmgate.uiuc.edu , a blog for farm decision-makers.

"Your Virtual Research Assistant."

2007 acreage estimates are being made, but Iowa State's Bob Wisner says USDA's March 30 report is the one that counts. "One private survey showed a prospective 7.6 mil. acre increase from last year corn plantings. Another showed a potential 10.1 mil. acre increase in corn and a 6 mil. acre decrease in beans. With less corn harvested for silage, this latter acreage and good weather could increase corn harvested acreage 15%."

The ethanol economy has seen prices drop 64¢ per gal. since December. Iowa State economist Bob Wisner says each 10¢ change in the price of ethanol drops the maximum price a new plant can pay for corn by about 28¢ per bushel if everything else remains unchanged. He says a continual decline in ethanol prices for several months, would likely discourage some potential plants from breaking ground at current corn prices.

With corn plantings up 10.2 mil acres from 2006 Wisner expects soybean acres to drop 6.5-7.5 mil. acres. He says higher soybean prices would encourage more double-cropping of soybeans after the wheat harvest if soil moisture is adequate. His newsletter is at: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/documents/IFO020207.pdf .

Corn price volatility is here to stay, says Michigan State outlook specialist Jim Hilker. "The futures market and the basis continue to indicate on-farm storage will pay, and that commercial storage will not. If you think that futures will decrease and/or you don't want to take a chance, then sell cash now if you are in commercial storage, and hedge/HTA if you have your corn in on-farm storage. If you think that futures will increase, then move your commercially stored corn to a basis contract and wait to price your on-farm stored corn. Remember, today's prices are good, no matter which direction they go from here."

Cornbelt farmers have another month to decide before the crop insurance deadline on March 15. IL Extension's Gary Schnitkey helps make that decision with a calculator to help you see how much premium you would pay, what insurance payouts would be for prices and yields, and how various insurance products have performed over time. Find the insurance calculator at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/index.asp .

Do "traited" hybrids increase yield? No, say MN agronomists who tested 170 hybrids saying, "There is little to no yield increase due to the addition of insect or herbicide traits in corn hybrids. We feel that corn producers can still select hybrids based on genetic yield potential and then consider insect or weed management tactics based on integrated pest management strategies to protect the genetic yield potential." Read the details at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2007/07MNCN08.htm .

Beef production was up 5.6% in 2006 and will be up 2% this year, but Purdue's Chris Hurt says "Highs in late March and early April may extend into the low $90s. These price projections are several dollars under what futures market prices were suggesting as of February 2. Futures may be providing favorable hedging opportunities." Read his weekly newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/020507.html .

Chris Hurt says ethanol will impact the beef herd in a couple ways. "Some contraction in the breeding herd may also continue in 2007 as calf prices remain under pressure and forage prices rise along with corn and soybean meal prices. Forage prices will rise because more land is being diverted toward crops that produce liquid fuels, thus reducing hay and forage acreage." And that is in addition to corn prices driven up by ethanol.

Iowa State weather guru Elwynn Taylor says he's concerned about global weather:
1) "Holes" in the ozone occur naturally, but people caused consistent ozone decrease.
2) There is natural global warming and cooling, but decreasing arctic ice is significant.
3) The composition of the atmosphere is a factor in planetary temperature.
4) "People are factor in composition of the atmosphere. The only responsible computation (to date to my knowledge) of the contribution people have made to climate change is 5% of the observed change. Bankers care about 5%, we should too."

Cut soybean costs say Ohio State agronomists, and cut the seeding rate for 7 inch rows. 1) Light colored soils, plants reach knee high to 20" – 225,000 seeds per acre.2) Medium soils expected plant height of approximately 30" – 175,000 seeds per acre. 3) Dark soils with 40" or higher plant height - 150 – 125,000 seeds per acre. They say similar seed savings of 10% per acre can be achieved in 10", 15" and 30" row Roundup systems.

Western bean cutworms will be the topic for a Cornbelt-wide seminar Feb. 28 which you can either attend at your local Extension office or from your office via the Internet. Specialists will discuss identification, management, and control options. Register for the 9 a.m. program at: http://www.ncipmc.org/teleconference/wbc2007/index.cfm .

• Winter weather has caused alfalfa concerns. Ice halts the exchange of carbon dioxide and oxygen. Healthy and well-fertilized crowns can survive better, especially if cut properly in the fall to allow accumulation of carbohydrates in the roots of the plant.
• Ice encrusted alfalfa will decline in health. Disking and other mechanical efforts to break the ice will really not help. Spreading fertilizer to let the salts melt the ice will probably not help, but will increase the amount of nutrient runoff when the ice melts.
• Wheat and alfalfa subjected to ice coatings or freezing winds without the benefit of snow cover are more likely to stress and be susceptible to disease. When the snow melts, look for a slimy fungal growth on leaf tissue. Infection in the crown is terminal.