This document printed from the University
of Illinois Extension Ag Update at http://www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/
Extension Update
December 29, 2006
Smaller acreage for new crop beans and the strong pace of old crop exports continue to hold up the soybean market says Purdue's Chris Hurt, and adds analysts are estimating exports to be up 21% for this marketing year, but so far commitments are up only 45%. He's concerned about the South American crop, which could be 12% more than the 2006 US crop. http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=37 .
Bean prices have been following corn, and Purdue's Hurt expects that will continue. "Spring highs on soybeans tend to be in the late-March to Mid-May time period. This is a reasonable expectation for this year as well, with the realization that unfavorable weather could take prices much higher into the summer. Cash prices for 2007 crop soybeans in the $7.00 to $8.00 per bushel range might become reasonable expectations, although the $8.00 level is clearly higher than futures market price expectations at this time."
Ethanol demand will likely push corn prices to a higher level for an extended period, say IL Extension economists. That will come despite increased acreage because corn supply will remain tight. Results of the scenario will be non-fuel users having to pay higher prices, higher land values and rents, and increased foreign production of corn. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/farmincome/2007/pdfs/general(Good2).pdf
Farm power costs varied little when IL Extension Economists surveyed thousands of farms in the IL FBFM farm records association. Regardless whether farm size was below 1,000 acres, or exceeded 4,000 acres, power costs averaged $66 to $70 per acre. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/farmincome/2007/pdfs/breakout(Schnitkey).pdf
If you plan more 2007 corn acreage, also plan for a slight increase in machinery costs say IL Extension economists. While the additional machinery costs will be small, the main concern may be a tighter planting window, a longer and more complicated harvest, with more fieldwork for tillage and fertilizer application. Your timing will be a concern.
USDA's Cattle on Feed report last Friday indicated the feedlot inventory was up 2% over 2005 and 6% over 2004, making it the highest Dec 1 cattle on feed inventory since 1996 when records began. November feedlot placements were 8% below 2005, but November marketings of fed cattle were 6% above 2005 and 10% above 2004.
USDA's Hogs and Pigs report Wednesday indicated the pork inventory was 1% above 2005, but down 1% from the September report. The breeding herd inventory and the pig crop were both up 1% from 2005, and farrowing intentions are up 2% for the current quarter and up 1% for the spring quarter. Cornbelt state inventories were up 2-5%.
Energy #1. Investors in new ethanol and biodiesel plants may not personally benefit from the regulatory protection enjoyed by the plant say IL Extension ag law specialists. Depending on how the investment is structured, the company could save significant costs from federal registration which is not passed onto farmer investors. Ask before investing.
Energy #2. The resurging interest in coal mining may bring offers to buy coal rights on your farm, but IL Extension ag law specialists say it may also bring the controversial longwall mining, which has great potential for surface subsidence. Although it is legal, its consequences include damage to drainage systems, and uneven field terrain.
Energy #3. Increased demands for energy may result in new power lines crossing your farm, but despite the utility's power of eminent domain, there is room for negotiation to ease the impact on your farmland. Some state laws mitigate the adverse impacts of power lines say IL Extension ag law specialists, but you may want a lawyer handy.
Energy #4. A windfarm on your land may be lucrative, but IL Extension ag law specialists say easements you grant may limit the use of the land forever, and you should consider long and short run consequences of any agreement. Consult your attorney first. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/farmincome/2007/pdfs/breakout(Uchtmann).pdf .
Giant ragweed is now #7 on the official list of Roundup resistant species due to an IN patch. Purdue's Bill Johnson says there are only four effective postemerge herbicides for giant ragweed: glyphosate, Flexstar, Cobra and FirstRate. If the giant ragweed population is resistant to ALS inhibitors, that leaves only glyphosate, Flexstar or Cobra. If the populations are resistant to glyphosate and FirstRate, that leaves only Flexstar or Cobra post-treatments. He says the wind won't spread ragweed seeds, but may spread pollen.
The FDA is being criticized for allowing consumption of meat and milk from cloned animals. Because of expense, don't look for it in the grocery store this weekend. An advocate of cloning says the practice will result in leaner meat and disease resistant animals, which means more consumer safety and more humane treatment practices.
Pork production could be enhanced as a result of a genetic discovery by USDA's Meat Animal Research Center in NE, where gilts can be genetically identified and selected for increased litter size. Genetic markers correlated with litter size can increase profitability.
Grain exporters will be toasting their success. Despite higher prices, corn exports are currently 18% above export volumes recorded at this time in 2005. Soybean exports will be 1.2 bil. bu., representing 937 mil. bu. of soybeans and 282 mil. tons of meal. October set a new monthly export record of $6.9 bil. and for all ag exports, '06 is 12% over '05.
Weather impacts oil and protein content in soybeans, and drought in the Plains and Western Cornbelt resulted in a slide in average protein content to under the 35% target. The United Soybean Board says 2006 protein values were 34.5%. Oil content of the 2006 soybean crop was 19.2%, slightly above the USB export target of 19%.
With sadness we report the passing of Sonja Hillgren, Editorial Vice President of Farm Journal media. A long time colleague, respected journalist, and friend, Sonja will be truly missed by all of agriculture where her shadow passed during the past 30 years. The first farm writer to be President of the National Press Club, Sonja gained the respect of the Washington media who realized she had the trust of all farmers. Godspeed Sonja.
On the Cornbelt calendar are many opportunities about risk management and profitability:
Crop Protection Technology is the focus Jan 3-4 at Urbana, IL with speakers on: fungi in field crops, agronomic issues, wheat production and management, glyphosate resistance, insect management challenges, issues associated with the agriculture/urban interface. Register at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/conferences/cptc/index.html .
Marketing without LDP's is the topic of a series of seminars for IN farmers presented by Purdue educators on four successive Monday nights, beginning Jan. 22. They cover futures, options, cash marketing alternatives, and the impact of biofuels on grain prices. The $20 fee covers materials and can be paid to Extension offices hosting the semnars.
The 6 keys to a quality pasture are: choice of site, quality of soil, forage mixture, seeding process, weed control, and first use of the forage, says Purdue forage specialist Keith Johnson. His presentation and others will be Jan. 24-25 at the Heart of American Grazing Conference, at Mt. Vernon, IL. Register: http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/HOAGC
IL livestock feeders are invited to attend a seminar on buying and using DDG & gluten. Topics include product locations, costs, trucking, storage, and ration formulation. They will be: 1/16 at Pekin, 1/17 at Perry and Jerseyville, 1/31 at Macomb and Roseville, 2/2 at Lewiston, 2/12 at Hennepin, and 2/20 at Petersburg. Pre-register at Extension offices.
44 different workshops presented by 27 different experts will be held at 12 Iowa cities during January, focused on crop management, fertility, conservation, marketing, and pest management. Register for Crop Advantage Series 2007: http://www.aep.iastate.edu/cas/ .
Beef producers in IA, KS, MO, & NE will want to attend one of the four sessions in the four state beef conference, held Jan. 10 & 11. Topics include: state of the industry, co-product feeds, grazing management, and declines in percent choice. The $25 registration fee includes a meal and materials. http:// www.extension.iastate.edu/feci/4StBeef .
Crop Protection Clinics will be held in twelve locations across Nebraska, beginning Jan. 4. The daylong seminars will focus on weed, disease, and insect management. Dates, locations, and times are available at: http://ianrnews.unl.edu/static/0612061.shtml .
Annie's Project, a six-session risk management training program for farm women, will be held in two Ohio locations. Bowling Green begins Jan. 9 and Delaware County begins Feb. 1. Details are at: http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu/news/index.php#annie .
Minnesota Dairy Days begin Jan. 5, with sessions on feeding dairy cows in the future, what's new about feeding young calves, what producers are doing to achieve low somatic cell counts, biological risk assessment of your dairy, milk marketing, compost barn economics, and residue risk management. More: http://www.extension.umn.edu/dairy .
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
