A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Oct. 6, 2006, Vol. 8 No. 24

Start your day at: www.Farmgate.uiuc.edu , a blog for farm decision-makers.

"The information you need, and the voice you always wanted."

• Weakness in soybean prices has been due to the supply, says Iowa State Extension's Bob Wisner, but its size is up for question. Last Friday's USDA Stocks report put the Sept. 1 carryover at 449 mil. bu., compared to the 485 mil. estimated in mid-Sept. But Wisner says prices will react next to weather, harvest progress, and the Oct. 12 report.
• By the way, USDA says the Oct. 12 crop report will contain any necessary acreage revisions attributed to dry weather in AL, GA, and SD. USDA will be asking producers to confirm the acreage they intend to harvest, assuming droughty acres were abandoned.
• What will happen to crop size? Wisner says, "Except for years of widespread weather stress, there has been a strong tendency for the US corn yield estimates to increase from Sept. to the season final estimate." Regarding beans Wisner says, "The pattern is similar to corn except that the average increase in those years is considerably smaller than corn."
• South of the Equator Wisner anticipates a 6-8% reduction in Brazil's soybean plantings this fall and early winter, with a potential small increase in the Brazilian average yield. Prospects for reduced soybean plantings for the second consecutive year reflect the high costs of spraying for Asian soybean rust and an unfavorable exchange rate." More is at: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/documents/ifo093006.pdf .
• Buckle your seatbelt for a potential soybean aphid invasion in 2007. They have been in large numbers in the Cornbelt on their winter host, the buckthorn, and unless their natural predators increase substantially this fall, researchers say egg survival could be large for the 2007 season. Aphid numbers caught in traps are reported at: www.ncpmc.org/traps .
• European corn borers are more numerous than U of IL entomologists have anticipated. They are in the midst of surveying 50 counties, and report numbers are more than have been found for several years. Unsure if less Bt corn is being planted, the entomologists say they have no definitive explanation for the increased numbers in some counties.
• Have you noticed damage to your ears of corn from caterpillars? You may have, and probably wonder which breed of caterpillars feasted on your corn. U of IL bug folks say earworms, corn borers, fall armyworms, or bean cutworms may have been responsible, and keep all of those in mind as you plan your 2007 pest management program. Review http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=629 for a summary of their damage.
• The data is a year old, but USDA reports that 49% of US corn acreage was treated with atrazine, well above the second most popular corn herbicide, acetachlor, at 29%. Atrazine was applied to 5% of soybean acreage, well surpassed by glyphosate at 90%.
• Last week's Hogs and Pigs Report revealed a 2% expansion in the breeding herd in the next year with a corresponding increase in production. However, pork supplies per capita will be steady, says Purdue's Chris Hurt, helped by pork export volume. Hurt says cost of production should be about $43 next summer, providing $6-7/cwt profits. Read his latest newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/100206.html .
• The pork economy will be squeezed by rising corn prices, says marketing specialist Chris Hurt, which he expects in the mid-$2 range next spring and high-$2 range next fall. Hurt says hog prices could be in the $50 range next year, and that even supports $4 corn. He advised producers to be cautious on expansion until they know where corn prices are.
• Protect your cattle from lethal prussic acid poisoning after the first 28 degree frost of the year. That is a potential for pastures with sudangrass, sorghum-sudan, or sorghum. They can be safely harvested, if the crop was safe to harvest before the frost or if the plant tissue had dried after a killing frost. Drying dissipates the prussic acid content. Read more at: http://www.traill.uiuc.edu/pasturenet/paperDisplay?ContentID=8038 .
• The FDA has backed off a requirement to keep records on the hay that is produced for livestock feed, either on your farm or sold to another cattle operation. The recordkeeping proposal was part of the 2002 Bio-terrorism Act, but is required in some states.
• Feeder cattle prices, as reported to the USDA for its statistical needs, will be adjusted to remove any transportation cost, and reflect the true price of the animal. While that may seem miniscule, it was affecting the calculations of the feeder cattle index on the Merc.
• Dust is controversial, when it is caught between cattlemen and the EPA, and to satisfy Iowa cattlemen, EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson has traveled there to find out first hand about the problems of reducing or eliminating dust in feedlots and in fields.
• Elimination of the CRP in the next Farm Bill would save $12 bil. in contract costs, but would cost $33 bil. in farm programs because of low commodity prices resulting from the expanded acres. They anticipate if CRP expires in 2015, corn prices would be $2.30.
• Mark your calendar #1: The IL Crop Protection Technology Conf. has been set for Jan. 3-4, in Urbana at the Illini Union, beginning at 9 a.m. Six issues-based symposia are scheduled, and attendees will get the 2007 IL Agricultural Pest Management Handbook.
• Mark your calendar #2: The 2007 IL Corn and Soybean Classics will target fungal diseases, fall-applied N, changing crop demand, managing corn borers and rootworms, waterhemp, continuous corn, soybean cyst nematode resistance, economics of growing more corn, and soybean aphid management for 2007. 1/16 at Springfield Crowne Plaza, 1/17 at Collinsville Holiday Inn, 1/18 at Mt. Vernon Holiday Inn, 1/23 at Bloomington Interstate Center, 1/24 at Kishwaukee College, and 1/25 at The Mark in Moline.
• Mark your calendar #3: The 2007 IL Crop Management Conferences will include general and focused sessions, with hands-on experiences and in-depth discussions. 1/30-31 at Rend Lake Resort, 2/13-14 at Springfield route 66 Hotel, 2/20-21 at Kishwaukee College. Watch for registration information at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/conferences .
• Slow, but sure, the Internet is crawling across Mid-America. Telecommunications firms in Ohio, Iowa, and 2 other states received $30 mil. in USDA grants and loans to extend broadband access beyond city limits. About 5,000 rural homes will benefit from it.
• Illinois farmers, befuddled by regulatory jargon, will find welcome help at a new website developed by U of IL specialists. Tell the site what you want to do, and it will guide you through the regulatory maze of EPA, conservation, endangered species, historic sites, all at: http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/ezregs/. You will choose project, then answer a series of questions, each of which will help address related regulatory issues.
• Farmers wanting the inside scoop on saving money on their fertility program are being invited to participate in test plots for fall and spring applied nitrogen. Requirements can be found at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=630 or contact U of IL crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger (ednaf@uiuc.edu) or 217/333-4424.
• Cross your fingers that harvest continues to be relatively smooth. Ohio St. specialists say harvest delays allow disease and field loss. More is at: http://corn.osu.edu/#B .
  1) 90% of the yield loss occurred when delays extended beyond mid-November.
  2) When harvest was delayed to mid-Nov. yields declined for populations over 30,000.
  3) Hybrids with weaker stalks had more rot, lodging and yield loss with delayed harvest.
  4) Stalk rot occurs between Oct. and Nov., with lodging increasing after Nov.
  5) Grain dried 5.8% if harvest was delayed until Nov. but did not dry any further.
• While debate occurs on elimination of the Estate Tax, U of NE economist Dave Goeller says any elimination or reduction in the stepped up basis would be much more costly to farm families than any savings from elimination of the Estate Tax. Without the stepped up basis, any sale of land from most farm estates would generate a capital gains liability, and hurt many mid-sized farms. More: http://agecon.unl.edu/pub/cornhusker/10-4-06.pdf
• Contrary to popular opinion, the farm population has a lower incidence of cancer, including those folks actively involved in pesticide application. A 12 year study conducted by the U of NE found lower rates in rural residents for 18 of the 20 cancers being studied. However, those applying pesticides had a 14% higher rate of prostate cancer than the rest of the population. Specialists stressed the need for proper clothing.
• More Japanese restaurant customers want US beef than restaurant owners guessed, says Utah Extension's Dillon Feuz. But he says Japan only bought 105 tons of US beef in August, compared to 20,000 tons in 2003. Feuz says restaurateurs don't want to switch menus again, US beef is higher priced than it was in 2003, and American restaurant chains in Japan are serving Australian beef because it is less expensive.
• You have better things to do than watch nightcrawlers, however an Ohio State weed specialist blames nightcrawlers for the unusual increase in ragweed populations. For unknown reasons, the worms collect ragweed seeds around their burrows, and place them in locations to ensure germination. http://www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/story.php?id=3800 .