A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Aug. 18, 2006, Vol. 8 No. 17

Start your day at: www.Farmgate.uiuc.edu , a blog for farm decision-makers.

• Corn futures dropped to marketing year lows following last week's USDA crop report, which forecast corn production less than 2005, with a record 11.8 bil. bu. use. U of IL Extension's Darrel Good says, "The projected year ending stocks-to-use ratio of 10.4% points to a 2006-07 marketing year average price of $2.35, equal to the midpoint of the USDA's projected range of $2.15 to $2.55. Cash bids were quoted near the loan rate.
• Soybean prices tumbled as well, despite lower production and a reduction in carryover. Darrel Good says, "Stocks of US soybeans on Sept. 1, 2007 are projected at 450 mil. bu. The year ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15% suggests a 2006-07 marketing year average farm price near $5.65. That is within the USDA's projected range of $5.00 to $6.00."
• USDA's September Crop Report will fine tune the August forecast, and Darrel Good says market watchers have mixed opinions about the next step. He says some believe "big crops get bigger" and corn production will increase. Since private forecasters are a bit more accurate in August, he believes the soybean crop will get larger also. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/081406.html .
• Crop prices can still fall further, says Iowa State University's commodity Outlook Specialist Bob Wisner. He says, "Despite strong and rapidly growing demand for corn and expectations that Brazil's soybean planted acreage will decline this fall, these expectations point to additional risk down-side risk in harvest-time prices for both crops. Risk of fall price and basis pressure results from limited availability of storage space."
• Your cropping plans for 2007 are also of interest to Wisner. He says, "At USDA's currently forecast US corn production (with the second highest yield on record), the crop would be 700 to 800 mil. bu. below expected demand. With ethanol processing expanding at 34% annually, the potential corn production-use gap likely will widen next year. That, in turn, would require additional corn acres in 2007 to keep pace with growing demand. Most of the additional corn acres would be likely to come from soybeans."
• How do you decide about your 2007 cropping pattern? U of IL economists say, "Given a $6.00 soybean price and bean yields above 45 bu. per acre, breakeven corn prices range from slightly above $3.00 for relatively low corn yields down to $2.50 for relatively high corn yields. Current 2007 price projections are in the $2.70 to $2.80 per bu. range. Hence, some farmers may find switching to more corn profitable for the 2007 production year." Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo06_14/fefo06_14.html
• How did your rootworm control perform? Extension root ratings are in from several plots, which indicate rootworm damage to corn roots. Review the details on transgenic and insecticide performance at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=613 . The complete report will be available at: www.ipm.uiuc.edu/ontarget/2005report.pdf.
  1) Granular soil insecticides did not perform as consistently this year as they did in 2005.
  2) Herculex hybrids had lower root injury than Yieldgard hybrids, particularly at Urbana.
  3) Late season pruning of braceroots on Yieldgard hybrids is being seen at Urbana.
• Healthy soybeans and cooler weather means increased densities of soybean aphids. U of IL aphid counters say populations from Eureka to Freeport have significantly increased. The economic threshold for spraying is expected to soon be reached in several fields. In several other fields, populations have not increased, apparently controlled by predators. Producers in the northern third of IL are urged to scout beans for aphids every 2-3 days.
• Unhealthy soybeans may be suffering from charcoal rot, if plants are wilting and leaves are lighter, and speckled with lesions. Management is difficult because most varieties are susceptible and corn is also a host for the pathogen. USDA researchers have developed a new genetic line with resistance and it is available to commercial breeders. See also:
  1) http://cropdisease.cropsci.uiuc.edu/soybeans/charcoal-rot.html
  2) http://www.planthealth.info/charcoal_basics.htm
  3) http://www.plantmanagementnetwork.org/pub/php/news/2005/charcoal/
• Corn will soon be ready for harvest, says Extension's Emerson Nafziger because it was planted early and growing degree-days have been above normal in most locations. Central IL corn has had 2,500 GDDs and only needs 2,600 to 2,800 for the black layer to form. He says that will be the end of August or early September. He also says the heat in July did not cause premature ripening, unless the corn has been unduly moisture stressed.
• If you are calculating your soybean yield, Nafziger says at a final seed size of 3,000 seeds per pound, each 4 seeds per square foot mean 1 bu. per acre. So if there are three plants per square foot, each plant needs to fill 80 seeds for the crop to produce 60 bu. per acre. Given the current conditions, seed size could turn out a little larger than normal.
• Enter the hay quality contest at the IL Forage Expo Aug. 25 on the IL-WI state line near South Beloit. Find out contest judging criteria, field demonstration schedule, and seminars on livestock health at: http://www.illinoisforage.org or 618/664-0555 ext 3.
• Unless it clogs fuel lines like it does arteries, Malaysia will soon be running on biodiesel made with palm oil. Plans have been announced for 52 plants to convert palm oil into biodiesel which would refine 1.37 bil. gal. per year. Ask Dr. Z about auto nutrition.