This document printed from the University
of Illinois Extension Ag Update at http://www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/
Extension Update
August 11, 2006
USDA's August 1 Crop Report today forecast 2006 cornproduction at 10.975 bil. bu., down 1% from last year and 7% below 2004. National average yields is average 152.2 bu., up 4.3 bu from last year. If realized, yield would be the second largest and production would be the third largest on record. Old crop carryout was estimated at 2.062 bil., and new crop carryout in Aug. '07 at 1.232 bil. Ave. price: $2.15-2.25.
Forecast yields across the Great Plains and western Corn Belt suffered from drought, with higher yields in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. The largest yield increase is in IL with 172 bu. per acre, 29 bu. above last year's drought-reduced yield. IA yield was pegged at 173 bu. The largest yield decreases are expected in AL, MS, GA, and ND.
August 1 soybean production is forecast at 2.93 bil. bu., down 5% from 2005 and 6% from 2004. Expected national average yield 39.6 bu., down 3.7 bu. from the record high US yield set last year. Old crop carryout is 515 mil. bu, new crop carryout is 450 mil. The season average price was projected by USDA at $5.00-6.00 for both old and new.
Forecast soybean yields are lower than 2005 throughout the Great Plains, the western Corn Belt, and the Gulf Coast States, while yields are expected to remain unchanged or increase in the Ohio Valley, Arkansas, Missouri, and the Atlantic Coast. IL, IA, OH & NE yields were estimated at 45 bu., IN at 49. MN & MO estimated at 37, KS at 31.
All wheat production, at 1.80 bil. bu., is down slightly from the July forecast and down 14% from 2005. Based on August 1 conditions the US yield is forecast at 38.3 bu., unchanged from last month but 3.7 bu. below last year. Projected U.S. 2006/07 wheat supplies are lowered slightly from last month, due to lower forecast production. The projected all-wheat, season-average price range is up 20 cents to $3.90-$4.50 per bu.
Regarding usage, projected corn feed and residual use is increased 75 mil. bu. Corn ending stocks are increased 155 mil. bu. Despite lower forecast production for soybeans, USDA left exports and crush unchanged. Lower production and reduced carry-in put ending stocks at 450 mil. bu., down 110 mil. from last month.
You have the USDA numbers, but what was the grain trade expecting them to be: 1) The corn average estimate was 10.795 bil. in a range of 10.471-11.067 bil. bu. 2) The bean average estimate was 3.028 bil. in a range of 2.909-3.114 bil. bu. 3) The 2006 corn ending stock guess was 2.037 bil. in a range of 1.995-2.062 bil. bu. 4) The 2006 bean ending stock guess was 533 mil. in a range of 515-554 mil. bu. 5) The 2007 corn ending stock guess was 1.093 bil. in a range of .958-1.312 bil. bu. 6) The 2007 bean ending stock guess was 572 mil. in a range of 450-679 mil. bu.
Since the 2006 crop has a ways to go, Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good says based on the best fit between the percentage of the crop rated good or excellent at the end of the season and the US average yield since 1986, a rating of 56% at the end of the 2006 season would suggest a yield near 145 bu., about 4 bu. below trend.
Darrel Good also says the corn futures market is reflecting a 2006-07 marketing year average farm price near $2.65. In his marketing letter, he says, "That calculation assumes that the relationship between the monthly average price received by producers and the average monthly price of the nearby futures contract is at the average of the past 5 years."
The $2.65 average for the new crop, also implies a 7.8% stocks to use ratio, based on an 11.7 bil. bu. usage and a carryout under 1 bil. bu. at this time next year, says Darrel. But he also says, "The market appears to be trading an average yield below trend value or is anticipating stronger demand than reflected by the USDA projections." Read more of his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/080706.html .
Do you pay attention to the futures prices for either anhydrous ammonia or diesel fuel? Comparing futures prices to benchmarks gives you a handle on whether to book or pass up a given price. Ag economist Kevin Dhuyvetter at Kansas State University provides handy charts and graphs at: http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf .
IL farmland values in 2006 averaged $3,800 per acre, the highest on record. The USDA estimate includes the value of all land and buildings, and was 14% over 2005. Extension economist Dale Lattz says IL farm real estate values have shown a year over year increase every year since 1988, or 19 consecutive years and a 68% climb since 2000. The top reasons are: limited supply of land, low interest rates, and 1031 tax exchange buyers. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo06_13/fefo06_13.html .
Small densities of soybean aphids that have been "lying in wait" could develop into potentially threatening numbers, say U of IL Extension entomologists. They are encouraging farmers to continue scouting soybean fields diligently for aphids well into August. Heat in the 80 degree range allows aphid populations to double in size daily. If you spray, the Specialists say a return on investment for an insecticide application is unlikely after the soybeans reach the R6 stage of development.
Keep scouting cornfields for western bean cutworms. Specialist Kevin Steffey says, "Timing for insecticide applications likely has passed for most fields, but an assessment of the presence or absence of this new pest will give you a better handle on potential management scenarios in 2007. Its impact in IL probably will increase over time. "
Scout also for second-generation European corn borers. ECB numbers in 2006 seem to be larger than in the previous few years in some areas of the state. Numbers of potato leafhoppers in some fields of alfalfa are very large, and fields have been treated with insecticides. The economic threshold is lower in alfalfa regrowing after a cutting than in alfalfa that is close to harvest (0.2 and 2 leafhoppers per sweep, respectively).
Weed specialists in MO have found a patch of waterhemp that is immune to Round-up in both the field and their labs. It has previously shown resistant to ALS-inhibitors, triazine herbicides, and PPO-inhibitors. U of IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says, "The most consistent programs for waterhemp management include soil-applied and postemergence herbicides, along with mechanical cultivation where feasible.
If you swelter at night, so does your corn. Ohio State's agronomy newsletter says night heat causes loss of moisture and sugar, which would otherwise fill kernels. It quotes U of IL research: "Corn grown at night temperatures in the mid 60s outyields corn grown at temperatures in the mid 80s." For more: http://corn.osu.edu/index.php?setissueID=148 .
"Beer can ear," also known as short ear syndrome, is being found in some Northern IL cornfields. Extension's Emerson Nafziger says ears often have the normal number of kernel rows, but they might be no more than 5 to 15 kernels in length. The cause of the problem is unknown, as well as how widespread it might be. He's suggesting farmers scout for the problem, which may be related to herbicide application during the heat.
Soybean canopies are good to excessive, says Nafziger. He says moisture is being tapped, but the crop will have difficulty retaining and filling the number of pods and seeds that it needs for good yields. He says counting seeds and pods is tedious and not very rewarding, but pull plants sideways to see if there are the four or more pods per node, and three or more seeds per pod, needed to set the stage for high yields.
US beef sold out quickly when it was loaded into Tokyo meat counters. Five metric tons disappeared in the first day that Japanese consumers could buy it, following the lengthy BSE troubles between the US and Japan. Additionally, 31 US Senators have written to Korean officials seeking an end to the 7 month ban on US beef exports.
Mark your calendar: AI and reproduction seminar for cattlemen will be held Aug. 30-31 at St. Joseph, MO, with a trade show focused on animal health.. Extension specialists from 8 states are on the agenda. For details: http://muconf.missouri.edu/arsbc/info.html .
Congratulations to the U of I Meat Evaluation team. "U of I students have competed in all 43 of these national contests, winning 21 times, but this was the first time one school won every division, including the communications division," said Doug Parrett, U of I Extension beef specialist. He and meat specialist Tom Carr were the coaches.
Happy 20th birthdayto soy ink. Currently, 90% of daily US newspapers use it, and 1/3 of the 8,000 US newspapers. Every US ink manufacturer offers at least one soy ink formula, along with 30 in Japan, where 4,700 companies use the soy ink trademark.
The Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture is e-mailed on Friday to selected subscribers and is also on the Internet (at www.extension.uiuc.edu/macon/agupdate/ or www.farmgate.uiuc.edu .) It is created weekly by former Extension Specialist Stu Ellis, who remains reachable at: shellis@uiuc.edu .
