June 27, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• "No one in the grain trade believes the USDA numbers are accurate," says Kansas State's Mike Woolverton about the acreage and yield estimates in the June Supply Demand report. USDA's projection is 86 mil. acres of corn and 74.8 mil. acres of beans, but those numbers will be adjusted with a flood update Monday, June 30^th when USDA releases its Planted Acreage Report. You can read more from Woolverton's newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• "Yield is even more difficult to forecast this year than acreage," says Woolverton. He adds, "Corn and most soybeans were planted late into cold, wet, compacted soils. All those factors will drag the national average yield down, but no one knows by how much." He projects corn to be pollinating in the heat of the summer, and he says it is too early to be concerned about a national average soybean yield, but he's concerned about frost.
• Woolverton's description of wheat is widely varying yields, reduced test weights, reduced protein content, and higher elevator prices than producers expected to see at harvest time. Kansas City cash wheat is over $9, since wheat has benefited from higher oil prices that have been pulling up corn and soybean prices with the crude oil price.
• Near normal rain and heat are expected over the next month by Ohio State meteorologist Jim Noel. He says there is still a risk for heavier rainfall, but the risk for hot and dry weather is low through the month of July. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#L .
• But near term heat is expected by Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. "Well-established crops are likely to benefit, but heat can stress poorly rooted plants. Generally, temperatures slightly warmer than normal before the 4th of July are of benefit to yield and detrimental to crops thereafter. Rain prospects have declined from the multi-year peak of the past few weeks to near normal. The National Weather Service outlook for July slightly favors temperatures in the coolest 1/3 of all years; which is desirable." He is still forecasting a 148 bu. national average corn crop and a 37 bu. soybean crop.
• Bad spring weather was not limited to your neck of the woods, says NE climatologist Al Dutcher in the NE Cropwatch http://cropwatch.unl.edu/ . He says weather models are drying out, compared to weather trends that caused problems across the Cornbelt:
  1) 83 of the 99 counties in Iowa have been declared disaster areas due to flooding.
  2) In NE an estimated 500-600 center pivot irrigation systems received tornado damage.
  3) Iowa has lost 1.3 mil. acres of corn from flooding, and up to 3.3 mil. Cornbelt wide.
• Hard to believe, but it is farm program sign-up time. In addition to signing up for direct and counter-cyclical payments, USDA will also take your name for the new 2009 ACRE program. That program reduces your direct and marketing loan benefits by 20% and 30% respectively, but provides an additional payment that averages the 2008 and 2009 marketing years and if the weather market is active, the payment could be high.
• The prevented planting period has arrived for most Cornbelt locations. NE Extension's Paul Burgener says anything planted now is uninsurable. "For those producers carrying APH, CRC, or RA contracts, prevented planting is an option if the crop cannot be planted due to excess moisture or flooding. The rules for prevented planting are complex, and a visit with your insurance professional is recommended. Those producers who are carrying GRP or GRIP insurance are not eligible for prevented planting payments."
• Late replanting can still generate income. Regardless of hybrid maturity, July 1 planting may yield around 30%. Earlier maturities resulted in drier grain at all planting dates, but they also yielded less than full season hybrids. Iowa St. research indicates an early fall frost can destroy or dramatically reduce seed yields. Read much more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/062401RogerElmore.htm .
• 3 mil. acres of corn and beans in Iowa have been flood damaged, with 11% of corn to be replanted and 8% was flooded. Although mid-June is behind us, corn prices are causing many producers to consider replanting despite the yield loss. At this point, research show a 52% relative yield potential is possible with a population of 32,000.
• Soybean survival after a flood depends on the type of soil present in the field. When flooding occurs at the V-4 stage, MN researchers report yield loss of 1.8 bu/A per day of flooding on clay soil, but only 0.8 bu/A per day of flooding on silt loam soils.
• While the Cornbelt is wet, the Gulf states are dry and that means soybean rust is not spreading at this point. Ohio State's Anne Dorrance says only one Texas kudzu patch has Asian rust, and while it was found on soybeans in the Florida panhandle, it was only one pustule in 150 soybean leaves, which was "not much to get excited about."
• The data comes from Illinois, but the entire Cornbelt may be in need of an initiative to establish grass waterways. IL Extension specialist Bob Frazee says the latest cropland survey indicates 25% of the IL acreage is now incurring major damage from concentrated water flow and ephemeral erosion, certainly exacerbated by this spring's heavy rains.
• If your wheat looks sick it could be attributed to a variety of fungal diseases resulting from the cold, wet spring. Wheat generally outgrows such maladies as pythium root rot, bacterial leaf blight, and wheat streak mosaic virus, but this year has given it a challenge. None of the pathogens can be controlled by foliar fungicides, so don't waste the money. Next fall, ask your seed dealer for wheat varieties that are less susceptible to the fungi.
• Crazy top may be prevalent in the Cornbelt, because of the saturated soils and rains that kept whorls of corn plants full of water says MO Extension's Laura Sweets. That is the environment for a downy mildew fungus that causes the misshapen plants. It may be throughout the field, or in just a circle around a pond. Since losses are minimal, there are no control measures that are warranted, unless it is improved soil drainage in the field.
• Heavy weed infestation could have resulted from heavy rains that neutralized some herbicides or hurt canopy development. Weeds that emerge after the V3 stage in corn are at a disadvantage, and their impact may be minimal unless they completely cover the soil. Iowa State's Bob Hartzler says 3-4 in. weeds in 30 in. corn do not warrant a spray.
• This may be one year when you have weedy fields at harvest time, but Hartzler says that may be something you just have to ignore for now. He says late emerging weeds will have minimal impact, but may produce a lot of seed, and create a dense weed mass next year. If you are aware of such a potential problem, create a 2009 weed management plan.
• If you had no chance to apply pre-emergent weed control, short corn should be treated as soon as possible to avoid further yield loss from weed competition. Your weeds may be 5-6 in. tall, and a 5-10% yield loss on 150 bu. corn is worth $90 on $6 corn, and that cost estimate is increasing says IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager.
• Environmental factors have caused a thin cuticle on corn leaves, and that may be the reason corn is showing crop injury from post emergent herbicides. With wet soils causing stress, crop injury becomes more common, particularly if crop oil was used.
• Hager warns about potential problems with applications of post emergent herbicides to corn that may be older than the product label allows. Its height may be short, but it may be physiologically older, and he says do not apply the product if the corn is too old. Hager says if any tank-mixed products are used; follow the most restrictive product label.
• If soybeans were planted into a mass of winter annuals, and summer weeds are now coming on strong, Hager suggests delaying any burndown herbicide for several days after the soybeans are planted. He says the planting activity may have disturbed the winter annuals enough for them to shut down their metabolism and halt any herbicide uptake.

Posted by John Fulton at 9:19 AM | Permalink |

June 20, 2008

Extension Update from Stu Ellis

• If it seems that high water years in the Midwest are increasingly common since about 1970; they are, says IA State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. Compared to 1993, he says the flood arrived earlier, water levels were higher in many places, and this year the rain and flooding were more widespread in the Midwest than was the case in 1993. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0613ElwynnTaylor.htm .
• The climate has changed, says Taylor, because the Midwest receives 10% more annual precipitation since 1980 than prior to 1970, which doubles the stream flow. From 1930 to 1970 there were 2 "high water years", but since 1970 there have been 12 "high water years." He says the 200 year floods of the past can now be expected every 33 years.
• Weather patterns similar to this year occurred in 1947, with many high flood reports, followed by a severe Cornbelt drought, says Elwynn Taylor at Iowa State. "The chance of changing to drought conditions appears to be about 25% and to the warm and dry side of usual (sufficient to reduce Cornbelt yields to below trend) is about 62%."
• USDA's June 30^th Planted Acreage Report will contain updated information about flooded crops after all. The National Ag Statistics Service will re-visit farms this coming week that were surveyed in early June to ascertain water damage and producers' plans for using the flooded fields. NASS says it will also conduct a more extensive update of planted and harvested acreage in July for a more accurate August Crop Report on 8/12.
• A fair amount of crop loss and demand rationing are already priced into the corn market with December 2008 futures approaching $8, says Extension's Darrel Good at Illinois. "The worst of the crop stress may have passed and more favorable growing conditions are forecast. Corn prices may now moderate somewhat, at least until more is known about crop size." More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/061608.html .
• The global soybean situation remains clouded by the standoff in Argentina between farmers and the government, according to Mike Woolverton at Kansas State. "Lack of a suitable government response to the on and off farmer's strike is causing a political crisis and has prevented Argentinean soybean exports for several months." Woolverton says US beans have filled the gap, which has reduced our carryover and raised prices.
• Woolverton also says the Brazilian harvest may have been less than USDA estimates, since the Minister of Agriculture says it was 59.85 mmt, not USDA's guess of 61mmt. Woolverton also believes Brazil will not expand soybean production as much in 2008/09.
• Did you sell at the Feb. highs, Melvin Brees asks? "Many producers now think they sold too early, sold too much, sold at too low of a price and some maybe even sold more than they may produce. What seemed like an easy decision to sell at almost unheard of prices in late winter now appears to have been the wrong decision. However, selling near record high prices is probably something that should be done again." Read more at: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf .
• Brees, at the Univ. of MO, says corn and beans remain in a steep uptrend signaling that prices will move higher. But he also says "downside price risk is also huge." Brees says many bullish factors are priced into the market, and moderating weather will reduce the uncertainty of crop size, with prices moving lower. Many bearish factors include:
  1) Livestock producers are liquidating to cut costs so feed demand will decline.
  2) Exports will weaken from a stronger dollar and increasing transportation costs.
  3) Weaker oil prices will squeeze ethanol demand, leading to refinery slow downs.
  4) Limits placed on speculative trading would cause liquidation and a price collapse.
  5) Opening the CRP for cropping would increase 2009 acreage and lower prices.
• Cash prices for beans are catching up to futures, calculates Purdue's Chris Hurt, "Soybeans are getting hard to find and basis levels have reflected the shortage that is developing this summer. Basis levels moved from about $.50 to $.60 under futures in late winter to about $.15 to $.25 under currently. Hurt's latest newsletter can be read at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=55 .
• Hurt says, "July futures reached $15.96 on March 3 and a return to that level is now the objective for old-crop futures. New-crop futures prices established new record contract highs on June 11 at $15.11. Movement toward $16 would be the short-term upside objective. It has been a wild ride as November futures have had a trading range of $4.50 per bushel from lows April 1 through June 11." He says weather will dictate the trend.
• Plan your soybean marketing. Hurt says add to new crop sales, but do it wisely:
  1) The basis is wide, compared to the shortage of new crop beans over the coming year.
  2) The demand for storage will be limited this fall because of the smaller corn crop.
  3) There will not be as much pressure to sell either beans or corn at harvest.
  4) The current new crop basis of 80¢ to $1 should tighten to 35¢ to 50¢ at harvest.
  5) Any pricing for new beans should be on hedge-to-arrive, without setting the basis.
  6) Since the basis will improve, forward contracts that set the basis should not be used.
• Corn roots may be suffering, if it was planted in damp soils that became compacted then crusted with beating rains. IL Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says cultivation could break up the crust and mulch the soil to retard evaporation, and give oxygen to the roots. He says corn with yellow leaves is not photosynthesizing well and is standing in water. He says its roots will not recover very fast due to slow soil drying.
• If your corn is yellow, it is likely due to wet soils and depleted nitrogen, and there is little that can be done until the soils dry out says Emerson Nafziger. The quick warm up helped the leaves at the expense of the roots, and their demand for moisture and nutrients outstripped the ability of the roots to supply the needs. He says the roots need oxygen, and need to escape from carbon dioxide. Nitrogen will only enhance vegetative growth, which will not help the roots. He says the roots need to grow without your help.
• The corn planting deadline depends on your north latitude. Nafziger says corn that is planted late, then gets wet, will probably not mature in time. A crop that dries out will suffer from drought stress. He says it is not impossible, but getting good yields from corn planted after 20%-25% of the seasonal Growing Degree Days have already accumulated is not a very sure thing. He says mid to northern growers need shorter season corn.
• Sorghum can still be planted, and yield acceptably since it is a shorter season crop. IL crop specialist Dennis Epplin says sorghum needs only 35-40 days from mid-pollination to harvest, versus the 55-60 for corn. Narrow rows provide a quick canopy, but planters will require special seed plates. Check pre-plant herbicide labels for potential problems.
• Prepare for the worst when it comes to Japanese beetles and corn rootworm beetles at pollination time. That is advice of IL Extension entomologist Mike Gray who says both insects have been delayed in their development, along with the corn, and that would put the timing for pollination and silk clipping at the hottest point of the summer in late July.
• Japanese beetles in your soybeans could be a more serious peril this year with the higher values of beans. Mike Gray says traditional defoliation levels suggested as economic thresholds are 30% before bloom and 20% between bloom and pod fill. But with the higher values of beans, he says a more conservative assessment is warranted when treatment decisions are made. He says the key to success this year is careful scouting.
• Soybean aphids have been found in northern IL, also getting a late start. Entomologist Kevin Steffey says, "Because there are fewer soybean fields at this time in 2008 (73% planted, 58% emerged as on June 16) than usually are available to soybean aphids during most years at this time, infestations could become relatively large in scattered fields. The temperatures this past week have been ideal for soybean aphid development."
• Flood #1. Farm wells are at risk when flooded, and need to be tested after the water recedes. Check with local health officials to obtain test kits and locate testing labs. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0617TomGlanville.htm .
• Flood #2. Crop insurance coverage varies by state (90% of IA covered) and agents need to be alerted about damage and to find out the rules for replanting and prevented planting. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/061701WilliamEdwards.htm
• Flood #3. Ponding and wet soils deplete oxygen to the corn plant, making it susceptible to various root rot pathogens. As waters recede, examine plant tissues for their health. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0613AlisonRobertson.htm
• Flood #4. Electrical systems in farm buildings may have been compromised, so power should be disconnected professionally, before you thoroughly dry out circuit boxes.

Posted by John Fulton at 8:08 AM | Permalink |

June 13, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• Many reasons for a market downturn can be counted says IL Extension economist Darrel Good. Among them: CRP grazing allowed, declining crude oil prices, efforts by the US to strengthen the dollar, wheat prices becoming competitive with corn for livestock feed, and CFTC's announcement about speculative trading being investigated.
• None of those reasons could overcome the bullish strength of heavy Midwest rains and a sudden rise in crude oil prices, and Darrel Good says those altered the fundamentals for corn and soybeans. Particularly, the weather delays in finishing planting and the need for replanting reduces the potential size of both the 2008 corn and soybean crops he says. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060908.html .
• The market will be watching the potential crop size over the next few weeks, but the strength of demand will determine price and the need for rationing. While Good doubts any US market intervention like other nations, he says beware of two possibilities:
  1) Initiatives to use the CRP for more forage for livestock or expand 2009 crop acreage.
  2) Change the Renewable Fuels Standard to reduce corn demand by ethanol refineries.
• USDA's Supply-Demand Report this week cut the corn yield projection by 5 bu. per acre to 148.9, but did not change the planted acreage estimates, despite extensive flooding. The Planted Acreage Report at the end of the month will provide USDA's perspective on the impact heavy rains. Corn prices were estimated at $5.30 to $6.30.
• USDA retained its yield and acreage projections for soybeans, despite the planting delays, but the June 30 acreage report will refine the numbers. Mike Woolverton at Kansas State says old crop bean stocks are projected at a 15 day supply, but that will rise only to a 21 day supply for the new crop, still based on earlier production estimates. The tight supplies are the reason USDA raised the farmgate price range to $11.00 to $12.50.
• Wheat yield projections were raised to 43.2 bu. per acre based on improved prospects for winter wheat says Woolverton, but ending stocks are still relatively low because of the demand for feed wheat and export demand. Farm prices will be $6.75 to $8.25. Read his newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Continued adverse weather will offer 3 choices to farmers with crop insurance, says Purdue economist George Patrick, who says agents need to be consulted about them:
  1) Replant the original crop, even though the yield will likely be reduced.
  2) Plant an alternative crop after the final planting date and late planting period.
  3) Abandon the acreage and take a prevented planting payment.
• Shorter maturity hybrids are becoming more popular because they would require fewer growing degree days, but when you are cut 300 GDD off your hybrid the trade off is a decrease in the higher yield typical for later planted corn says IL Extension Specialist Emerson Nafziger. He advises short season hybrids untested in your area may suffer disease and drought stress. Read: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=957 .
• Nafziger is concerned about the biochemical needs of soybeans which trigger flowering. The length of darkness is key, but will be counter to what soybeans need when planted late. The biochemical process also has to occur at the V-3 stage in beans, which is the earliest that flowering can occur, and those two events may be mismatched this year.
• If soybeans flower early, the flowering period is much shorter and their height is shorter. A wet July or August can extend the growth and flowering period. Read more in Emerson Nafziger's newsletter at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=957 .
• Cut corn and bean yield projections in half if planting is not accomplished by late June, says Nafziger. "Even with high costs, the yield needed to cover costs is relatively low when corn is more than $6 a bushel. We're looking at some real disappointment at having so much income potential not realized this year due to weather-related crop problems."
• Seed beans are available for replanting say Iowa State agronomists. Plenty of group 2 is available, but lesser amounts of groups 1 & 3. Additional seed can be conditioned by seed companies to meet demand, but germination will still vary in the 80% to 90% range.
• Seed corn is also available, and companies are moving shorter maturity corn into areas where replanting will be necessary. Yields will only be 50% to 70% of normal, despite the maturity length of the hybrid. Crop insurance policies may expect replanting to be attempted to meet the "good farming practice" requirement, along with pesticides.
• Has your nitrogen washed away? Fertility specialist John Sawyer at Iowa State says the late spring moisture and warm soils increased the chance for loss. He uses the IL research of: 4-5% loss of nitrate-N by denitrification per day of saturated soil. He says more N is lost by tile flow, and would total about twice the typical annual loss. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0611JohnSawyer.htm .
• If you are replacing failed corn with soybeans, Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says, "That while the choice to replant damaged cornfields back to soybeans is the prerogative of the grower, the risk of damage to the soybean crop from previously applied corn herbicides is borne solely by the grower because most soil-applied corn herbicides have more than a few months' crop rotation restriction on their labels." And he says soybean seed may be either in short supply or you may not get your first choice of seed beans. Visit: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/FloodingReplant-0611.html
• Evaluate your possible damage from ponding by assessing debris, silt, and residue from other fields that enters the whorl of the corn plant suggests Ohio State's Peter Thomison. Even if water is not standing, saturated and soupy soils can injure the plant, along with:
  1) Stage of development, duration of ponding, plus soil and air temperature.
  2) If it does not kill the plant, ponding will retard root growth, and cause nitrogen loss.
  3) If ponding in corn lasts less than 48 hours, crop injury should be limited.
  4) Ponding will contribute to disease risks of pythium, corn smut, and crazy top.
• Keep your fingers crossed about reduced insect pressure on crops this spring:
  1) Armyworms in wheat are concerns in OH & IN, with some in southern IL.
  2) Only a few cases of significant bean leaf beetles in the earliest planted fields.
  3) Replanted corn will probably be more susceptible to black cutworm feeding.
  4) Corn borers are laying eggs in the tallest corn, but larvae won't survive in short corn.
  5) Japanese beetles are emerging but can't find pollinating corn or flowering beans.
  6) Soybean aphids have been found in uncommonly small colonies in MI, IN, OH, & IL.
• Ducks in cornfields probably indicate reduced populations of corn rootworm. The hatch is two weeks behind last year, with ponds and saturated soils contributing to their demise. IL entomologist Mike Gray doubts any high densities because of starvation from lack of corn roots, which may help you make insecticide decisions for fields needed replanting.
• However! Research over the past few years has indicated that standing water does not spell an end to corn rootworm. They can survive a pond lasting only a few days and grow up to inflict severe damage. A 1991 study at Urbana, IL, indicated enough corn rootworms survived a severely flooded research plot "to inflict impressive damage."
• On the other hand, corn nematodes which like sandy soils, are surviving quite well, thank you. If you have stunted oval patches of corn, it may warrant you to take soil samples and have them tested by a nematode lab, which is the only way to diagnose that problem. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060908.html .
• In the physics of rain, drops range from 1 to 7 millimeters and hit the ground as fast as 20 miles per hour. When millions hit bare ground, soil particles are dislodged and may land 3 to 5 feet away. A heavy rainstorm may splash 90 tons of soil per acre, but most of it remains in the field and fills up pores in the soil preventing moisture absorption. More is at: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2005/5-2-2005/reducespringerosion.html .
• Missouri's 30+ inches of rain from December to May turns out to be the wettest such period ever. MO climatologist Pat Guinan said the average is under 19 inches. Also, 60 tornadoes have hit, which is twice the yearly average. Guinan said the culprit is the above normal temperatures in the southern US and below normal temperatures in the northern US, and the large contrast in air masses results in more unstable weather.

Posted by John Fulton at 11:26 AM | Permalink |

June 10, 2008

Effect of differential corn height on yield

Here is an Iowa State webpage discussing yield loss potential on corn of differing heights.

http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2006/6-12/cornheight.html

Posted by John Fulton at 11:59 AM | Permalink |

June 10, 2008

Crop Insurance Decisions

Posted by John Fulton at 10:21 AM | Permalink |

June 6, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• Grain consumption is generally predictable, but there will be a big question mark this year because of USDA's approval to open up the CRP for livestock feed use says IL Extension economist Darrel Good. He rhetorically asks, "How much will this additional forage production substitute for grain feeding in the last half of the 2008 calendar year?
• One calculation of the impact is to estimate the level of participation, amount of forage, and its nutrient content. Good says that statistic can be converted into grain replacement, which would work backward into grain stocks disappearance. Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060208.html
• A second calculation for potential grain use depends on the capacity to feed additional forage. While there are 95.5 million grain consuming animal units, only 4% are cattle. USDA estimates that 6.6 bil. bu. will be fed this year, and 5.7 bil. bu. next year, and 4% of that amount of grain is 250 mil. bu. with 125 mil. used in a 6 month feeding cycle.
• Darrel Good says clues about the potential for CRP forage to displace grain will come from the number of acres enrolled into the program, then the September and December grain stocks reports will indicate the impact of the decision to open the CRP for grazing. His expectation is for the CRP grazing program to have little implication for grain prices.
• Can you predict the price of corn this fall? Most say no, but options users know the probability that the market will reach a specific price when the option expires. IL economists Bruce Sherrick and Darrel Good say prices are predictable based on the implied price levels of options. There is a 10% probability the December option will expire below $4.11, and a nearly 28% chance it will expire above $7. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060208.html .
• The cold and wet weather appears to be coming to an end for Iowa State's Elwynn Taylor. He says the end is not clearly in sight, but is approaching. The air pressure is below La Nina levels and the odds of a severe drought have begun to diminish. "As of today the most likely national corn yield for 2008 is 148 BPA (up from 142 BPA). The rain pattern that has soaked the Cornbelt shows continued migration northward and will be positioned in northern Minnesota by June 21st if the trend is maintained."
• Begin a savings plan to pay for your diesel fuel over the coming year, if the calculations are correct by Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter. NYMEX futures tell him fall diesel prices will be 45-60% higher than last year. Spring 2009 diesel prices will be 8-25% higher than spring of 2008. http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf .
• You may typically be applying nitrogen at this time, but since this has not been a typical spring, Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger suggests letting the crop maturity and soil condition determine the timing of the N, rather than the calendar. Read his latest nitrogen thoughts: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=952 .
• Your typical nitrogen application may be much more than the corn can use, says Nafziger, because crop conditions this spring have reduced the yield potential, and may continue to reduce yield potential. In that case, Nafziger says no amount of nitrogen will make up the shortfall, and it is only a waste of money to apply an excess of nitrogen.
• Flooded fields are prevalent around the Cornbelt, some planted, and some are not. Iowa State agronomists say corn that is germinating can withstand 4 days of saturated or flooded soils. Seedlings with less than 6 leaves can withstand 4 days underwater if the temperature is less than the high 70's. Higher temperatures shorten the survival period.
• As floodwaters recede decisions about replanting need to be made, but the feasible dates for replanting are quickly vanishing. In the next few days, replanted corn may have a 90% yield potential, but if replanting is delayed beyond June 10, the yield potential is 70% or less. Consult: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/PM1885.pdf .
• Soybeans are jeopardized by wet fields says Palle Pedersen at Iowa State since there is significant yield loss after 6 days in the water, and greater yield loss with temperatures over 80 degrees. Saturated soils restrict oxygen to the soybean roots, and flooded soils allow a build up of toxins and carbon dioxide 50 times greater than in dry soils. Silt can also collect on leaves and restrict photosynthetic activity, unless rain washes it off.
• If your soybeans are emerging, what is their state of health? Iowa State specialists say poor stand establishment suggest disease pressure is quite high despite use of fungicides. Cool wet soils increased seedling diseases and contributed to the poor emergence rate.
• If your soybeans need replanting, seed treatments with fungicides are highly recommended by specialists, who say, "If Phyophthora causes seedling damping off, more severe damping off would happen in the replanted soybeans unless the seed is treated with the right fungicides or the weather turns dry after replanting." And the recommendation is for the use of even higher doses of fungicides on the replanted beans.
• If your soybeans are planted and up, they are susceptible to damage from bean leaf beetles, because they are starving and looking for food. Large numbers can accumulate in the few fields which have growing soybeans. Bean leaf beetles have to be numerous (16 to 39 beetles per foot of row at stage V2+) to cause economic damage. But they say with soybeans struggling to grow, and considering the value, lower thresholds may work.
• Cutworm scouting should be continued for at least two more weeks or until the 4 leaf stage, say the bug specialists. "Black cutworm larvae also have a tendency to bore into the bases of larger corn plants, and such injury can kill the growing point. This injury often referred to as "dead heart," results in corn plants with wilted center leaves."
• Indiana wins the corn rootworm derby. The first rootworm larvae of the season have been found in Indiana, but the hatch is about two weeks later than in 2007. The question becomes how the rootworms were affected by the torrential rains of the week, which have left many fields under water. If they cannot find corn roots they will die or drown.
• Brown stink bugs are present in high numbers this year says Wayne Bailey, who has been counting them in Missouri, and he says they have the potential to substantially damage seedling corn. Field edges are damaged first, and Bailey says most farmers usually don't see the damage until it is too late. He recommends scouting and spraying.
• Regardless of your Cornbelt location, entomologists say insects have been quiet this spring. This week's conference call on bugs reported IL, IA, KS, MI, ND, and OH "not much is happening." Among the insect and mite issues mentioned were cutworms (black, dingy, sandhill, variegated, and winter in MI and ND, the appearance of bean leaf beetles, and scattered reports of armyworm, cereal leaf beetle, and wheat curl mite in wheat. Since then, IL entomologists have continued to receive reports about cutworm injury.
• Recent rains and warmer temperatures will make the weeds grow as fast as the crop, and shorten your time for applying a post emergent herbicide if your pre-emergent herbicide has failed or was never applied. IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says you have several choices. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=951 .
  1) Remove the weeds during the current critical period for corn and yield will be saved.
  2) If the corn is beyond the labeled recommendations, the crop can be injured.
  3) Corn under stress from water or other issues can be injured by herbicides.
  4) Check labels since some herbicides now have restrictions against certain insecticides.
• Breaking down livestock waste into various components, and treating them as cities treat sewage, can successfully address the odor issues facing rural livestock production farms. Livestock researcher Paul Walker at Illinois State says the systems approach produces a soil amendment product and a low odor, low phosphorus, high nitrogen product usable in irrigation systems. Read more at: www.sweeta.illinois.edu .
• Yes, feed costs are high, says Iowa State livestock economist John Lawrence, but he adds, "Eventually livestock prices will increase in response to the higher feed costs and reach a level that yields enough margin to sustain the industry." Lawrence says the transition will not be smooth or timely, but producers should prepare for the long run.
• Livestock producers should focus on business management to survive says Lawrence:
  1) Corn prices will not return to $2, and even a bumper crop may only drop them to $4.
  2) If corn cheapens, do you have borrowing capacity and storage for that opportunity?
  3) Livestock production will have to decline to return profitability with high feed costs.
  4) Market volatility will continue and the focus should be on margins, not just prices.
  5) Futures contracts will provide an acceptable margin to lock in for a part of production.

Posted by John Fulton at 12:50 PM | Permalink |

June 5, 2008

When is the last day to plant?

This question is a big one in most producers' minds as almost everyone has at least something to plant or replant. Below is a link to Emerson Nafziger's comments on planting dates.

http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=946

Posted by John Fulton at 12:59 PM | Permalink |

June 2, 2008

New Black Cutworm Threshold - from Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing

The long, cool, wet spring weather has been a challenge for getting crops in the ground, but as I type this article, most corn and soybean are planted. Planting soybean is still in progress. Soybean seeds need warmer soil conditions than corn. The weather delays for corn and soybean planting are pushing all management and production issues for wheat, hay, corn, and beans into a tight window causing some headaches and time crunches.

Corn is slowly coming up and growing. Some fields had crusting or low germination problems and tillage or replanting practices are being employed, but a big concern now is insects. Be sure to scout for black cutworm damage. Adult black cutworm moths have been flying into Illinois and laying eggs in corn fields or weedy areas for the past month. According to Dr. Kevin Steffey, University of Illinois Extension Entomologist, that means black cutworm larvae that survive this wet weather, will continue to feed and cut young corn plants well into June. Black cutworm adults are still being captured so even replanted corn will be threatened by damage from this insect. More information on the black cutworm can be found in the Pest Management and Crop Development Bulletin at http://ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin. Check the May 23 issues and other May issues for information on black cutworms and other recent insect pests.

Current cutworm recommendations are to continue scouting for this pest by checking 50 plants in 5 locations within a field for leaf-feeding, plant cutting, wilting or missing plants. Feeding by small cutworms on the shoot of the corn plant will produce a row of small holes across the leaf when it unrolls. Be sure to identify the worm as a black cutworm and not a sandhill or dingy cutworm. Sandhill and dingy cutworms rarely cut corn plants. Compared to black cutworms, dingy cutworms are smaller, pale gray to brown in color with a reddish tinge. The dingy cutworm has four spots of equal size on each abdomen segment, while the black cutworm has one pair of spots that are smaller than the second pair of spots. The sandhill cutworm is about the same size but much paler and almost translucent in color. It also has white stripes down its back and sides.

Scouting will help you determine thresholds for making spray decisions, by recording the number of cut or missing plants and determining a percentage. It is still true that worms one inch or larger, those almost done feeding, should only have insecticides applied if 5% or more of the plants are cut. But a new, lower threshold for black cutworm has been determined by Iowa State for larvae ¾ of an inch or less in size. Evaluating current technologies and corn prices shows that 1 to 2 % cut plants or loss of corn plants, with a corn value of $5.00 to $6.00 per bushel, would just cover the cost to control small black cutworms ¾ of an inch or smaller. Information on the lower threshold and photos of the different types of cutworms can be found at http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/. Click on the Archive for weekly issues and select May 19, 2008.

Posted by John Fulton at 2:23 PM | Permalink |

May 23, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• A Farm Bill backfire occurred with some pages missing when the Congress forwarded it to the White House, and the President vetoed a document different than what had been approved on Capitol Hill. Reprising last week's action, the House voted 306-110 and the Senate voted 82-13. Unfortunately, the need to repeat everything also necessitates the Congress renewing the 2002 Farm Bill for another week to avert parity implementation.
• How will farms financially fare under the new Farm Bill, compared to past plans? IA State economists say reliance on farm program payments has provided some degree of stability during low price years. They say the lower 20% of farms has higher debt-to-asset ratios and is more dependent upon farm program payments for cash income. They say that group may be more vulnerable to changes in the cost structure of farm assets.
• The survey of Iowa farms found "The top 20 percent have improved their financial standing significantly over the period. The lowest 20 percent have made little financial progress. Between these extremes we see farm businesses, at varying degrees, meeting outside cash obligations and strengthening their equity position." The Iowa State economists believe, "Ultimately strong farm profits will be bid into land, rents and other asset values, resulting in tighter more volatile margins." Read a summary of their report at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/articles/jolly/JollyMay08.html .
• Grain market fundamentals are no longer driving prices says Kansas State economist Mike Woolverton, who says crude oil prices are in the drivers seat. He says planting rates should cause prices to fade, but corn and beans are now lumped with oil as inflationary commodities that have caught the eye of speculators, who are pushing prices up. His newsletter is at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp
• Woolverton says ethanol has enjoyed a strong defense lately, after IA Sen. Grassley revealed the Grocery Mfg. Assn. had created an anti-ethanol publicity campaign and he wanted a halt to it. Also USDA reported energy prices have played a larger role in food price inflation than ethanol, and the President's Council of Economic Advisors reported only 3% of the rise in global food prices was due to increased ethanol demand for corn.
• The ethanol controversy has significant implications for both the motoring public and for Cornbelt farmers, according to Woolverton, particularly if production is reduced.
  1) 5% of motor fuel is ethanol, and if eliminated, gas prices would rise 10-12%.
  2) If ethanol supplies rise 5%, gasoline prices would likely drop by more than 5%.
  3) If ethanol demand for an extra 1 bil. bu. is eliminated, corn prices would fall to $3.
  4) Despite a corn price drop, production costs have risen to $4 because of energy costs.
• Cold temperatures and heavy rains have killed many corn seedlings, says Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger, and stands less than 15,000 per acre will benefit from replanting. He says slow growth is not good either, and with this year's poor weather, replanting is "favored" this year. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=942
• Replanting decisions need to include insecticide considerations says IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey. He says if you may have already applied the maximum amount of one insecticide, you should not violate federal label regulations. But he says consider other insecticides. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=938
• Cold soil delayed corn germination and it is delaying corn rootworm arrival also. Typically they hatch in last week of May, but they may be hatching in the first two weeks of June, as they did in 1996 & 1997. IL Extension entomologists say that implies:
  1) Early planting and a late hatch puts increased pressure on soil insecticide performance.
  2) Early planting of Bt corn followed by a very late hatch could mean more root injury.
  3) Late hatch and late planting may simply delay emergence and corn tasseling.
  4) This may increase the odds that these events occur during the hottest summer period.
• While you have been busy planting beans, black cutworms have been busy feasting on fresh greens emerging in your corn field. The adult moths that have been flying into the Cornbelt during the past month will give rise to larvae with voracious appetites.
• Don't assume that your biotech corn will control black cutworms. Yieldgard has no protection, and Herculex will give some protection according to Iowa St. entomologists. Researchers say a loss of 400 plants per A in 32,000 population would mean the loss of enough corn to cover the cost of control. That is 1-2% of the plants in $6 corn. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0516TollefsonRice.htm
• Seed applied insecticides such as Cruiser and Poncho are not preventing economic stand losses from grubs, wireworms, and cutworms, but Purdue specialists say it may not be their fault. The insecticide is supposed to be absorbed by a rapidly growing seedling to provide a "systemic" protection. But this year there wasn't much "rapid" in the growth. Purdue entomologists believe this problem will be thoroughly discussed before 2009.
• You were a good boy and planted your Bt refuge. But in your haste, you forgot to apply the insecticide. Purdue entomologist John Obermeyer says that is not a problem and you can apply a post emergent liquid insecticide now or at cultivation time. He says weather is often a limiting factor in getting post emergent insecticides applied timely.
• With the challenges to corn emergence, will soybeans face the same problems? Mich. State agronomist Mike Staton says if soybean replanting is considered, there will be a yield loss of 0.6 bu. per day after mid-May. 100,000 good plants per acre should be the target population for a good yield, and since soybean seed is fragile and good supplies are short this year, it may not be possible to obtain enough seed to replant significant acres.
• When the weather breaks, there will be a rush to spray weeds says Extension specialist Dennis Epplin, and decisions should be made to control the spray, instead of letting the wind control it. Extensive technology is available along with adjuvants that may help. http://www.herbicide-adjuvants.com/ . He says make the spray stay on target.
• Do you have purple corn? Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says pigments produce the color, and a hybrid's genetic make up determines its susceptibility to purple coloring:
  1) The pigment appears when the plant is stressed by temperature and moisture.
  2) Greater amounts of soil compaction this year can also cause stress.
  3) Cool nights and bright sunny days with UV radiation can also turn corn purple.
  4) Purpling is more pronounced with more stressors: disease, insect & herbicide injury
  5) Phosphorus deficiency is not the cause, but wet soils can aggravate a P deficiency
  6) The cause of leaf purpling, not the purpling itself, can lead to yield reduction.
  7) Purpling will slowly disappear as temperatures warm and corn plants rapidly grow.
• When you get a virus, your doctor can't do much for you; and MO Extension's Laura Sweets says that is the same for your wheat crop. She says virus is prevalent in wheat, and there is not much that can be done about it, adding that fungicides will not cure a virus. She says wheat streak mosaic virus can sometimes reduce yields by 50%. Curl mites spread that particular virus, and they hang out in volunteer wheat.
• Consult your spouse about the theory of Purdue health specialist Bill Field, who says your blood pressure is probably higher this spring because the weather has compressed the planting season. He says that means less sleep, unawareness of one's surroundings, and poor decision making. He says any dry weather will create haste to get work accomplished, but in your haste, safety is compromised and your health declines.
• $58 is better than $35 meaning that hog prices are $23 higher than expected, says Purdue economist Chris Hurt, who says the price increase has come even with a 10% rise in production. Hurt says strong pork export demand, helped by a low value of the dollar, has substantially pushed demand higher than would have been seasonally expected.
• Both US and Chinese demand have helped the pork market says Chris Hurt, and that has caused him to revise his projections for the pork economy. Hurt says the adjusted prices should average $54-$55 through the fall, with prices moving into the mid-$60's next spring. With production costs averaging $58 in the foreseeable future, Purdue's Hurt says near term losses will be $2-4 per cwt., not the $20+ losses he'd expected.
• Pork exports got the attention of MO economist Glenn Grimes, who said March exports were 38% above year ago levels, and 63% of that growth was broad based, and not just from China. Grimes and cohort Ron Plain says one out of every 5.5 hogs slaughtered in the US was exported. At the same time the rate of imported hogs was declining.

Posted by John Fulton at 8:04 AM | Permalink |

May 20, 2008

County Colaborative Rainfall Reporters

Posted by John Fulton at 7:42 AM | Permalink |