· Corn price strength is due to harvest delays and ethanol according to the calculations of IL marketing specialist Darrel Good, who says favorable blending margins for ethanol and reduced Brazilian imports have allowed prices to move sharply higher. He says, "The EPA ruling on increasing the limit on blending from 10% up to 15% will be important for determining domestic market size moving forward." The US EPA had wanted to finalize its decision by December 1, but Good doubts that date will hold.

· Corn exports have faded, and are below the volume needed to meet USDA's forecast of 2.1 bil. bu. for the marketing year. However, the rate of feed use is uncertain. Darrel Good says higher rates of feeding may occur due to the poor crop quality, but on the other hand, the poor corn quality may push livestock feeders to use alternative feeds. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/marketing/weekly/html/111609.html

· Soybean prices have been supported by strong export business, and nearly 70% of the USDA forecast for the year was reached earlier this month. However, they will fade quickly when South American soybeans come to market early in 2010. The domestic crush has increased and may exceed USDA expectations says Darrel Good. But he says the crush reflects the poor crop quality and lower yield of protein meal and soybean oil.

· If you are selling, Good says thank the low value of the dollar and the strength in the US financial markets. While the low dollar allows importers to purchase more, Good says, "There is no historical statistical relationship between the value of the U.S. dollar and the volume of marketing year exports. He expects stronger prices from harvest delays.

· Sell the corn carry, recommends MN marketing specialist Ed Usset. He says, "The carrying charges from the nearby December futures contract to the deferred March, May and July contracts are very large – the market is sending a very strong signal to store grain and sell the carry." Read his thoughts at: http://edsworld.wordpress.com/

· How do you sell the carry? Usset suggests a hedge-to-arrive contract. "Selling the carry with a hedge-to-arrive or a futures contract has several advantages including (1) a solid hedge against lower prices in the months ahead, (2) the opportunity to earn a return to storage equal to the size of the carry and a stronger basis next year and, (3) the ability to defer income to next year." He's expecting improvement in the basis in the spring.

· Late and drawn out harvests mean the basis will be stronger than usual during the harvest period and less likely to appreciate when harvest is completed, compared to a typical year. Purdue's Chris Hurt says that is a reduced incentive to store the crop, and producers should use pricing alternatives that establish the basis, such as selling cash out of the field, a basis contract, or a minimum price contract.

· What are your storage costs for grain? IA grain marketing specialist Bob Wisner says, "The proper use of storage will increase a producer's income. However, maximum storage income results from selective rather than continuous use of storage facilities." Calculate your cost: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a2-33.html .

· What is the discount schedule at your local elevator? Purdue economist Corrine Alexander says it may be different from the one down the road, and you should inquire. She asked 6 Midwestern elevators about drying charges and found they ranged from 32¢ to 55¢ per bushel. Additionally, discounts for mold and other quality issues have a wide discount range. Discounts on 10% damaged corn ranged from 5¢ per bushel to 15¢.

· But what about low test weight? That issue and others will require a sample taken by a specified professional and tests run by certified labs before the grain is stored. Purdue's George Patrick says limited discounts on corn are unlikely to result in indemnities, unless your production yield met the requirements specified for your insurance coverage.

· Ear rots and other quality issues will trigger insurance payments if claims are filed properly. Purdue economist George Patrick says, "Insurance based on individual farm performance (APH, CRC, RA, and IP) does provide coverage. County‐based insurance (GRP and GRIP) do not cover losses due to quality on individual farms. If the county average yield (GRP) or revenue (GRIP) falls below the guarantee level of a producer, then an indemnity may result." High levels of mycotoxins are insurable losses also.

· If your stored corn is moldy, Purdue's Linda Mason has several concerns for you. She says the mold in your bin will create more problems if you are unable to dry it down.
1) The hairy fungus beetle and foreign grain beetle feed on mold, not the corn itself.
2) Bins with mold growing are above 55ºF and will allow insects to breed and multiply.
3) Insect issues in the spring can be addressed with a top-dress insecticide or fumigation.
4) Moldy grain should be dried to 12-14% moisture at a lower heat and for a longer time.
5) Sample corn more often than usual, especially if you have warm spots in the bins.

· If you are storing moldy corn, MO ag engineer Charles Ellis says moisture migration can exacerbate mold problems in winter. As temperatures drop, warm air can rise in the center of the bin, cooling when it reaches the cold grain near the surface. This results in moisture condensation, leading to rapid spoilage when spring brings higher temperatures.

· If your corn is lodging, find out why, and MN specialist Ken Ostlie says it may be rootworms, corn borer, or stalk rots and each produces a different lodging pattern. More: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/efans/cropnews/2009/11/lodging-in-corn-diagnosis-harv.html
1) Stalk rots weaken the stalk internally and plants break at different heights.
2) Corn borer tunnels weaken the stalk and plants bend over above ground.
3) Rootworm feeding on roots reduces standability and plants will lodge at the roots.

· Lodged corn can be a pain to harvest and every field is unique. Ostlie's offerings:
1) Harvest the worst first to reduce harvest losses and don't postpone aggravation.
2) Plastic snouts work better than metal, and waxing them may even help.
3) Combine against the direction of lodging, or at worst, crossways of the field.
4) Expect higher moisture levels and extra drying costs. Lodged corn dries little.
5) Post harvest repairs may be higher from plugged headers, rocks, and more wear.

· Field losses accelerate after mid-November, and can range from 0.5% to 2% per week of harvest delay, although loses may be higher or lower in individual fields based on a variety of other conditions. Losing 1 ear per 100 feet equals the loss of 1 bushel per acre.

· If diplodia was an issue this year, rotate to another crop next year. MO plant pathologist Laura Sweets says the fungus will survive in the corncob and stover and be ready to perform in 2010. She said crop rotation will help prevent repeat problems.

· For livestock feeding, moldy corn can be diluted with good corn, soybean hulls, hay, and other feed sources. DDGS is a good feed source, but if it was made from moldy corn, the ethanol fermentation destroys the mold but multiplies any existing toxins threefold.

· Large amounts of BCFM are causing some loads of corn to be rejected, and WI ag engineers say adjust your combine to ignore it. Part of that is selecting a ground speed that does not overload the combine. Minimize the material entering the header and set your concave to the approximate diameter of a shelled corn cob.

· Have you hired an extra combine and operator to help you get caught up? The cost may have you thinking about the costs of combines versus custom harvesting and thousands of dollars may be involved to your benefit or detriment. IA economist William Edwards has a calculator to help: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a3-33.html .

· Your fall tillage may not happen if soils remain saturated. MN specialists are concerned about compaction and smearing, and those will delay a quick dry out next spring for timely planting. They recommend filling in ruts and keeping your tillage shallow. More: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/efans/cropnews/2009/11/tillage-considerations-for-wet.html
1) "Frost tillage" is for slightly frozen soil. Equipment is supported on a 1" frost layer.
2) Avoid compaction with proper tire air pressure and axle loads under 10 tons.
3) On wet soils, use the lightest tractor that can still get the job accomplished.
4) Spring fields with heavy residue may be good candidates for soybeans or spring wheat.

· How much crop residue exists when you plant in the spring? A new IA State website calculates it for you based on the prior crop, types of tillage tools used, and your planter. Just with a field cultivator with 12-20" sweeps and a planter with a furrow opener, only 33% of your bean stubble from the prior crop remains for spring planting. Find the website at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilmgmt/calcResidue.aspx

· Weedy wheat fields may appreciate your attention. OH weed specialists report, "Herbicides are most consistently effective on winter annuals and dandelion when applied in fall. For most of the herbicides with activity on winter annual grasses, labels specify that control is maximized through application in fall. A dense population of winter annuals may have already suppressed wheat growth by the time a spring treatment can be applied, especially if the spring application is delayed into April."

· Dairy and other livestock producers have been losing money for months, but prospects for turnaround are delayed to 2010. If you have been losing $1,000 per month on a dairy cow or have other losses, IL specialist Dave Fischer says go back to production basics:
1) Maintain working capital, compute a cash flow, and don't surprise your lender.
2) Maximize income over feed cost, which means keep your efficiency with good feed.
3) Don't cut costs which will negatively affect livestock performance and health.
4) Liquidate any unused assets which may help provide cash flow for coming months.
5) Care for yourself and your family by maintaining communication and social network.
6) Strategize for the future while looking for opportunities to strengthen the present.

· The downturn in meat demand has lasted more than a year say IA livestock economists and the demand for high quality whole cut beef has taken the biggest hit. From Jan. to Sept., spending on restaurants is down 2.6% and home cooked beef is down .5%.

· Friday, Nov. 13^th was a red letter day for pork producers. MO livestock economist Ron Plain says as of last week, pork producers lost more money in the recent downturn than they did in the price collapse a decade ago. He says for the past 24 months, the average hog lost $19.18 per head, which is a $4.6 bil. loss for the pork industry in those 2 years.

· For the next year, Ron Plain of the Univ. of Missouri offers little optimism for pork profitability. He thinks live hog prices will average $43-47, which is up $3-6 from this year, but production cost is now $52, even if it is down from $62 this past summer. The anchors holding back profitability are the references to "swine" flu, weak domestic consumer demand, and a 15% oversupply of hogs, compared to the current demand.

· Land values in the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank district rose 2% for the third quarter of 2009, based on a survey of local bankers. But currently, the price of "good" farmland is 4% less than it was at this time last year, and that makes the third successive quarter that land values were less than they were 12 months earlier. Land values in the northern 2/3 of IL dropped 4% from 2009 and IA land values are 7% less than they were in 2009.

· Farmland prices will stabilize, 69% of bankers told the Chicago Fed, but 27% expect a decline, and most bankers believe farmers generally will back away from land purchases. The reason for the trend was a diminished earnings stream because of grain markets, lower net cash earnings, and high input costs that will reduce profitability.

· The Chicago Fed survey did not find much change in credit conditions from 3 months ago, but 25% of local bankers say there is an increase for non-land loans compared to a year ago. 21% of bankers said repayment rates were lower and 24% of bankers reported an increase in loan renewals and loan extensions compared to late summer of 2008.

· Bankers are telling the Fed to expect a surge in forced farm sales and liquidation of assets among financially stressed farmers and particularly livestock producers this fall and winter. Also, IN and IA bankers forecast increases in grain storage construction. Read more: http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/november_2009.pdf .

The University of Illinois Variety Trial information is now available online at http://vt.cropsci.illinois.edu/forage99/gen-info99.htm

Trial information is available for corn, soybeans, small grains, and forages by selecting the appropriate tab at the top of the web page. A limited number of print copies will be available in about two weeks at the Extension Office.

· USDA fine tuned its yield estimates earlier this week, but most market watchers are waiting for the 2009 Final Report to be issued in January. With the monthly estimates now in place, IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says the market will be watching the pace of harvest, crop progress in South America, and how the market perceives the demand. http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/marketing/weekly/html/111009.html

· There were ups and downs when USDA looked at the 2009 corn crop:
1) The average yield dropped 1.3 bu. to 162.9 bu. per acre
2) State average yields dropped 5 bu. per acre in IL, IA, and MS.
3) State average yields increased in CO, KY, MN, TN, and WA.
4) Brazilian corn acres, yield, and production estimates were reduced by USDA.
5) USDA estimates were cut 50 mil. for exports and carryout dropped to 1.625 bil.
6) The estimated price range for the marketing year was raised 20¢ to $3.25 to $3.85.

· There were ups and downs when USDA looked at the 2009 soybean crop:
1) The average yield was raised 0.9 bu. to 43.3 bu. per acre.
2) USDA increased its state estimates by 3 bu. per acre for IN and KS.
3) Average yield estimates were lowered by AR, GA, MS, TX, and IA.
4) The So. American soybean crop estimate was raised 80 mil. bu to 4.623 bil.
5) So. American crops began with early dryness, but will be helped by El Nino.
6) USDA raised export estimates slightly due to more imports by China and the EU.
7) USDA raised ending stocks to 270 mil. bu. and the national average price to $9.20.

· There were ups and downs when USDA looked at the 2009 wheat crop:
1) the 2009 wheat harvest was adjusted down 4 mil. bu. to 2.216 bil. bu.
2) More wheat in the Russia region will mean US exports will drop by 25 mil. bu.
3) USDA raised its estimate for wheat carryout by 21 mil. bu. to 885 mil. bu.

· Corn demand remains high says IA St. economist Chad Hart, with 4.2 bil. bu. headed to ethanol plants. "Crude oil prices have risen to the upper $70s per barrel range and this has helped ethanol margins remain positive over the past few months." He says based on production so far this year, 2009 ethanol production should reach 10.8 bil. gal. More: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo110109.pdf

· Soybean demand is export-focused says Chad Hart at IA St. Currently, USDA is expecting soybean exports from the new crop at 1.305 bil. bu., which would surpass the 2008 record, and Hart says the sales pace has been strong. China has already booked over 500 mil. bu. of US beans, equal to the amount that would be produced in Iowa.

· Update your marketing plan. MI St. economist Jim Hilker reports:
1) Mar corn has an 80% probability of being $3.10 to $5.19, with midpoint at $4.01.
2) Jul corn has an 80% probability of being $2.86 to $5.92, with midpoint at $4.11.
3) Dec corn has an 80% probability of being $2.64 to $6.57, with midpoint at $4.16.
4) Mar beans has an 80% probability of being $7.99 to $11.75, with midpoint at $9.68.
5) Jul beans has an 80% probability of being $7.22 to $12.91, with midpoint at $9.65.
6) Nov beans has an 80% probability of being $6.59 to $13.63, with midpoint at $9.47.

· "My post-harvest strategy for soybeans this year is straightforward; sell every bushel at harvest," says MN marketing specialist Ed Usset. He says there is no carry in the market and no incentive to store. He says the harvest basis is good, and a $1 premium is too expensive for at-the-money July call options. More: http://edsworld.wordpress.com/

· However, there is carry in the corn market, says MN economist Usset. "The current carrying charge of 32½ cents from December to July will cover interest costs of holding grain in storage nearly four times over. According to my records, the current corn carry of 370% of interest costs at harvest time is the fourth largest since 1990 (2001, 2004, and 2005 were slightly larger). To him a "large" carry is 140%, and that is exceeded now.

· Grain marketing tip#1. OSU's Steve Prochaska says "Grain marketing should be based upon probabilities. This may seem like gambling, but a farmer who plants a crop in the spring is using a probabilistic approach. A farmer believes that there is a good chance a crop will be produced to market in the fall. This type of thinking is based on probability."

· Grain marketing tip#2. OSU economist Steve Prochaska says, "Farmers cannot consistently predict major market moves and therefore should not speculate excessively." And he adds, "Grain marketing should be based on your risk bearing ability. If you have many debts to service, you should not allow marketing opportunities to pass when the total costs of production can be paid and therefore debt be serviced."

· Four weeks remain before the end of the insurance period for Cornbelt row crops such as corn and beans, and IA St. ag economist William Edwards suggests a call to your crop insurance agent with a harvest update. Additional time for harvesting must be requested before Dec. 10. USDA will not cover damage to the crop after that time, but will allow extra time to complete harvest so insurable damage can be evaluated.

· Financial pressure is increasing on farmers and ag economists in MN say there has been a 55% increase in the number of notices filed by lenders that are eligible for farmer-lender mediation services. In the past year there have been nearly 1,200 requests for mediation, which is an 86% increase over 2008. MN Extension reports that $322 million in farm loans are now in mediation, which is more than double the amount in 2088.

· Large changes in feed costs and market values are causing the financial stress, says MN economist Brian Buhr, and he says, "Many well-managed operations are experiencing financial stress." MN law requires mediation be offered before foreclosure proceedings.

· Wet corn is a problem for everyone and KS St. specialist Dirk Maier says don't worry about getting it to 15% moisture right now. He says use a 2-stage method to drop the moisture to 19-20%, transfer it to another bin and let the moisture even out through the grain. After 6-12 hours, turn on the air, remove 2 points of moisture and it can be stored through the winter. Use a warm spring day to drop the moisture to 15% for the summer.

· Corn kernels can be damaged with high heat says Maier. Heat over 200ºF can be used on corn over 18% without damage. But if that level of heat is used to drop moisture levels to 15%, then kernels are damaged. He also says don't remove more than 5 points of moisture per hour, or the quality of the corn will deteriorate. Frost damaged corn that has test weight at 50# or less should not be stored long and sold by springtime.

· Harvest wet, or let it dry? If you are in a quandary over whether to harvest and pay for drying or let it field dry, OSU agronomists retrieved a study they made several years ago:
1) Results showed that nearly 90% of the yield loss associated with delayed corn harvest occurred when delays extended beyond mid-November.
2) Grain moisture decreased nearly 6% between harvest dates in Oct. and Nov. Delaying harvest after early to mid Nov. achieved almost no additional grain drying.
3) Higher plant populations resulted in increased grain yields when harvest occurred in early to mid-October. Only when harvest was delayed until mid-November or later did yields decline at plant populations above 30,000/acre.
4) Hybrids with lower stalk strength ratings exhibited greater stalk rot, lodging and yield loss when harvest was delayed. Early harvest of these hybrids eliminated this effect.
5) The greatest increase in stalk rot incidence came between harvest dates in October and November. In contrast, stalk lodging increased most after early-mid November.
6) Harvest delays had little or no effect on grain quality characteristics such as oil, protein, starch, and kernel breakage.
7) In this study, yields averaged across experiments, populations and hybrids decreased about 13% between the Oct. and Dec. harvest dates. Most of the yield loss, about 11%, occurred after the early-mid Nov. harvest date.

· If you are greeted by ruts when harvest is over, consider fall repairs if the ground is dry enough. IL crop specialist Dennis Epplin says ruts will hold water and crop residue will not be spread evenly. He says level, non-HEL ground can be tilled with some difficulty, but HEL ground may require special repair treatments when the soil is dry enough. He says consider seeding a temporary cover crop if conditions permit and consult NRCS.

· Let weeds in wet fields go until spring. That's the recommendation of MO weed specialist Kevin Bradley, who says attempts to spray will tear up fields, and the spray used this fall can be used early in the spring. And he says that will address any problems with winter annuals and will have some impact on early summer annual weeds. Bradley says colder temperature inhibits the effectiveness of glyphosate and other herbicides.

· Spread your fertilizer this fall or next spring, but OSU agronomists say avoid spreading it on frozen ground, "Applications made to fields with any appreciable slope can result in significant fertilizer losses. Not only do these losses represent an environmental concern, but they also represent an economic loss for your operation." They also recommend that P & K be brought up to critical levels, even if you had good yields this year at low levels.

· Soybean aphids were counted in high densities in August and September, but when they arrived on their winter homes on buckthorn, they unexpectedly died, apparently from a fungal infection. OSU entomologists admit they do not know what that means for 2010, since there was a large mortality and lack of egg deposition, and they say remain alert.

· 2010 budget #1. NE economists say, "The price of diesel fuel used in the 2009 budgets was $4.00 per gallon, compared to $2.00 per gallon for the 2010 budgets. While this price for fuel may be a little low for 2010, using a round number such as $2.00 allows for easy adjustments should prices change." They say adjust to your own situation.

· 2010 budget #2. NE economists say from 2009 to 2010, fertilizer prices have changed even more than fuel. "The largest negative price change has been for 10-34-0, which went from an estimated price of $6.84 per gallon in 2009, to $1.90 per gallon in 2010. While changes in other fertilizer prices have not been as dramatic, the average of fertilizer prices used for the 2010 budgets is about 37% of the 2009 budget prices."

· 2010 budget #3. NE economists looked at herbicide prices and report, "The change in herbicide prices are a mixed bag. The price of glyphosate dropped from $0.35 per ounce in 2009 to $0.16 (46 percent of 2009) in 2010, while AAtrex 4L® increased from $4.75 per pint in 2009 to $6.00 (126 percent of 2009) in 2010."

· 2010 budget #4. "The price of seed utilizing new GMO technology appears to be higher than for those numbers available in past years. However, since fewer refuge acres are required and projected yields are greater using these new hybrids, the extra price for seed may be wholly or partially offset. The 2010 estimated crop budgets show similar cost per unit of production, using the new GMO technology verses the technology of prior years."

· Stability in land prices is being forecast by IL ag economist Gary Schnitkey based on a survey of farm managers and farmland appraisers. He says half expect land prices to decline slightly and 32% expect stable prices. Based on that, Schnitkey says cash rents that rose nearly 30% in the last four years should stabilize between 2009 and 2010 levels. He says cash rent rarely falls, and it would take 2 years of low returns to drop rents down.

· Livestock producers concerned about corn quality, molds, and values of damaged grain will want to connect with a webinar being presented Nov. 18 and Dec. 1. Both will be held from 12 noon to 1 p.m. over the Internet. Topics to be covered include molds and mycotoxins, storage alternatives and use of proprionic acid, value of wet corn, feed value of immature corn. Details: http://www.aces.uiuc.edu/news/stories/news4945.html

· With problems of moldy corn, "Farms that feed their own corn absolutely need to test this year to avoid these problems," says MO swine specialist Marcia Shannon. She says if corn has more than 5ppm of vomitoxin pigs will start vomiting, and will refuse to eat if the corn has more than 10 ppm. Breeding disruptions will occur in the breeding herd.

· Fair weather allowed harvest progress to be made this week, but the market will be wondering just how much when it is announced Monday afternoon. Combines were slow to get into the field because soils had to dry as well as grain. With elevators removing 10 points of moisture or more from the corn, instead of 5 points or less, the volume of grain to be dried caused many elevators to observer shorter hours of dumping grain.

· The most rapid weekly corn harvest rate in recent years was 16% says IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, who says fast harvest paces usually occur in the middle of harvest. He says if 25% of the crop had been harvested by Nov. 1, another 16% this week would mean it will take 5 more weeks to complete the corn harvest. But he is quick to say that cannot be sustained, because of weather, storage, and shipping dynamics.

· The most rapid weekly bean harvest rate in recent years has been 20 to 24% of the crop says Darrel Good. And he says if 50% of the soybeans were harvested by Nov. 1, then it still appears to him that soybean harvest could still extend into December. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/marketing/weekly/html/110209.html

· The Nov. 10 USDA Crop Report will be important in determining the impact of harvest conditions, says Good, who notes that crop diseases, low test weights, above average field losses, and quality deterioration have all become potential problems. And he says extreme weather in some areas may result in increased acreage that is abandoned.

· Don't wait for corn to dry very much says IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger. He says, "Expect on average for grain moisture to change very slowly in November. Expecting it to drop by as much as a point per week is optimistic." While the weather has been damp since maturity, upright ears have trapped water and cobs are holding onto water. He also says test weights will rise 2-4 lbs. when they are taken after the corn has dried down.

· As corn weathers in the field, expect yield losses says Nafziger. He says kernel weight will drop if mold is growing on and in kernels. Ears that are vertical will capture water and base kernels will begin to sprout in warmer temperatures. But he says two big threats are stalk failure that will allow ears to fall to the ground and a quick dry down in good weather that will weaken cobs to the point of losing kernels at the combine header.

· Many elevators are reporting low test weights on corn, and some loads have been discounted. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says there is little research that correlates test weight with yield, and there is no indication that low test weight corn is an inferior livestock feed. Nielsen says test weight and moisture content go in opposite directions, since the dry matter in the corn is heavier than water. Drier corn has higher test weight.

· Why is test weight low this year? Purdue's Bob Nielsen says there are several reasons:
1) Late season foliar disease and cool Sept. temperatures reduced photosynthetic activity.
2) The October freeze damaged late developing and immature corn and stopped grain fill.
3) Ear rots damaged kernels, causing light weight and chaffy grain with low test weight.

· Do you harvest or wait for dry down? IL agronomist Emerson Nafziger says if the crop is standing well, then waiting for the loss of a few more points of moisture may pay, even though it is risky. He says 200 bu. corn at $3.50 with drying and shrink valued at 4¢ per bushel will save you $8 per acre for each point of moisture that is removed naturally.

· Harvest it or leave it for the winter? Northern Cornbelt producers may weigh that thought, but WI specialists say the real question is: "Will the revenue lost by winter crop damage be less than the cost of drying this fall?" Their table demonstrates that a 20% to 37% yield loss that could be expected will not offset drying charges after harvest. More: http://ipcm.wisc.edu/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=gCKodrdgZjM%3d&tabid=114&mid=669

· The drying process will also help maintain quality, according to MN ag engineer Bill Wilcke, who prefers the use of high temperature drying over low temp systems. He says, "Higher temperature dryers aren't likely to run hot enough to kill the molds, but they do slow mold growth by reducing the grain's moisture content. The agitation of the grain during high-temperature drying is also likely to rub off some kinds of molds."

· On farm drying equipment may require more than the normal amount of maintenance because it is being used around the clock. Ontario ag engineer Helmut Spieser suggests checking interior drier screens daily to prevent material buildup. He says that prevent airflow and that will reduce throughput. And that buildup also causes dryer fires.

· What is your drying temperature? Your initial thought is to raise the temperature on high moisture corn to maintain dryer capacity. But if corn is not increasing in test weight after it has passed through the dryer, then the drying temperature is too high. Spieser says drop the plenum temperature in increments to gain test weight. He says since every kernel has a different moisture content, each pass through the dryer will reduce the moisture by the same amount, but since each was starting at a different moisture they will not all be uniform after drying. Spieser says manage that with adequate aeration.

· Here is Spieser's checklist for successful grain drying practices:
1) Higher drying temperatures usually result in lower grain quality
2) Reduce drying temperatures to maintain or increase test weight
3) Monitor immature corn for caramelization (if the milk line remained)
4) Kernel to kernel moisture content will vary both before and after drying
5) Storage aeration should bring wetter and drier kernels to nearly the same moisture
6) Keep kernel temperatures below 120oF to 140oF
7) Consider two-stage drying: 18% in the field and 15% in the bin
8) Two stage drying will allow the drying season to proceed

· New corn to be fed to livestock may need to be tested for mycotoxins, which could cause critical health issues for cattle. Those come from a variety of molds, which have reduced test weight, and degraded both the quality and nutrient content. However, to test the grain, the critical issue is obtaining a sample that is representative of the corn destined to be fed. Small amounts can be taken periodically from a combine or grain card until a sufficient amount is collected. Have it tested within a week at a reputable laboratory.

· Both molds and mycotoxins in corn can cause herd health issues. MN livestock specialist Jim Linn said certain animals are more susceptible, "At heightened risk for mold and mycotoxin health and disease problems are young animals, breeding animals and lactating dairy cows, with swine and poultry species more susceptible to these problems than ruminants. Mycotoxins in large doses can cause acute health, reproduction and production problems. However, the most likely scenario with feeding of moldy and/or mycotoxin containing feeds is a higher incidence of general, chronic health problems, poor reproduction and overall poor animal growth or milk production."

· But how much can be fed? That varies according to age and specie of the animal says MO specialist Marcia Shannon, who first recommends buying clean grain for your livestock. "Thus, some moldy feed may be fed to beef cattle. Feeder cattle should be able to safely consume levels five to 10 times higher than swine and dairy. Thus, ruminants older than 4 months can withstand 10 to 20 ppm of vomitoxin. Signs of toxicity with vomitoxin/ deoxynivalenol (DON) are usually feed refusal or feed intake reduction. At concentrations of 5 to 10 ppm vomitoxin vomiting is observed in swine. Read her newsletter: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v19n21/a4.pdf .

· Once more around with corn molds. Many farmers are continuing to find molds in corn which can be summarized. http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1244
1) Diplodia ear rot (white) has been widespread, but does not produce mycotoxins.
2) Giberella ear rot (pink) is also present and creates vomitoxin or DON and zearalenone.
3) Fusarium is less prevalent (white starburst) and produces fumonisin toxins.
4) Penicillium (blue-green) affects the kernel embryo and produces mycotoxin.
5) Cladosporium (blue-eye mold) grows when kernels killed early and harvest is delayed.
6) When combining moldy corn adjust for minimum damage and maximum cleaning.
7) Moldy grain should be dried below 15% for long term storage.
8) Moldy grain should always be tested for mycotoxins before being fed to animals.
9) Adding a mycotoxin binder to feed can reduce the impact of toxins in digestion.
10) DDGS can also contain mycotoxins, but are much more concentrated than in corn.

· Crop insurance policies protect you against grain quality problems, in case your grain is low grade, low test weight, excessive kernel damage, musty, or have mycotoxins that reduce its use as a livestock feed. MO economist Ray Massey recommends contacting your crop insurance agent for help in documenting your problem with samples collected by an adjustor. Those samples need to be obtained while the grain is still in the field. Read more: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v19n21/a12.pdf

· Regardless where you are in the Cornbelt, you may have issues related to the late maturity of crops and challenges in harvesting because of inclement weather. MN Extension specialists have assembled a wide variety of resources from numerous universities to address those problems at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/lateharvest/

· Crop specialists in MN, where immature crops are a significant issue, are telling farmers to put their priority on soybeans, regardless of moisture levels. And they say store them with a high volume of air continuously for several months, and closely monitor any low temperature drying to ensure against further deterioration of soybean quality. They say the alternative is leaving them in the field and watching the pods shatter.

· Combine adjustments can reduce many problems in harvesting immature corn that has a low test weight with kernels prone to breakage. Many of those are provided by ag engineer Helmut Spieser of the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture. Read those at: http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/field/news/croppest/2009/18cpo09a1.htm
1) Reduce cylinder speed and open concaves.
2) Leave fines in the field, rather than in the bin where they enable mold growth
3) Not much field drying occurs at this time of the year with cooler temperatures.

· If frost killed soybeans before maturity, they may still have a green color from the chlorophyll that did not degrade with maturity says MO's Bill Wiebold. And he says some of it will remain even through long term storage, coloring the oil when the soybeans are processed. He says frost damaged beans will store, but will have a higher moisture content and should be aerated. Over time they will shrink and become more oblong, and that should be considered when adjusting a combine to harvest immature soybeans.

· The saga of soybean aphids has a new chapter. Densities were impressive when they left soybean fields to find buckthorn, leading entomologists to expect significant egg- laying and a large 2010 population. But a survey in MI and IN found dead aphids, apparently the victims of a fungal disease. The aphid specialists believe that if that is the same in other parts of the Midwest, there may not be large numbers of aphids next spring.

· Wet weather may bolster winter annual weeds, but MO weed specialist Kevin Bradley says your inability to apply a fall herbicide will not be that important. He says, "Our research indicates that applications of residual herbicides made in the early spring can provide similar levels of winter annual weed control as applications of these same herbicides in the fall. In addition, our data indicate that early spring applications of residual herbicides provide better control of emerging summer annual weed seedlings than fall herbicide applications." He adds that many winter annuals germinate twice.

· Unharvested seed may soon prepare itself for planting due to the wet weather, if it is warm enough. MO specialist Bill Wiebold says it only takes temperatures over 50º for corn to sprout in the husk, damaging its quality. "During germination, seeds release enzymes that break down carbohydrates, proteins and fats. This breakdown releases free sugars, amino acids, and fatty acids. These simple compounds spoil easily in storage." Read more: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v19n21/a5.pdf

· October was the second wettest and fifth coolest in Missouri, says state climatologist Pat Guinan. Looking ahead, he says, "The latest winter outlook for Missouri calls for above normal temperatures for the northwestern half of the state and equal chances for above, below and near normal temperatures for the rest of Missouri. Below normal precipitation is anticipated across far southeastern sections with equal chances of above, below and near normal precipitation for the rest of the state."

· With wet weather on both ends of the growing season, did corn rootworm create havoc? The preliminary results from corn root ratings collected by IL entomologists indicated that about all of the efforts to control rootworm were successful when compared against the untreated test plots. Read more: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1242

· What were some of the lessons learned about controlling corn rootworms?
1) Low densities could be the result of saturated soils or more acres planted with Bt corn.
2) Wet weather did not seem to reduce the effectiveness of soil insecticides.
3) Bt hybrids generally performed well, but not always better than soil insecticides.
4) Bt hybrids combined with soil insecticides resulted in very low root damage.
5) Data is still being tallied on which options provided the best economic sense.
6) Planting Bt hybrids in 2010 is a field by field decision, based on 2009 scouting.

· Your priority on harvesting may sacrifice soil compaction, and that will be a long term problem says MO specialist Kent Shannon. He says shallow compaction of 12 inches or less can be corrected with tillage, but heavy loads on combines, trucks, or grain carts will compact soil to depths unreachable by tillage, and will remain wet late into next spring. Shannon says tire inflation pressure is one solution, and with selecting the proper tire, a 200 HP tractor may cause no more surface compaction than a 50 HP tractor.

· Just because you had a good crop this year does not mean you can save money by avoiding P & K application before the 2010 crop according to OH fertility specialist Robert Mullen. He said many producers skipped P & K when P cost $1,200 per ton and K was over $1,000. Mullen says P has dropped to under $400 per ton and K is about $500, but both will be needed in 2010, especially if they were skipped earlier this year. He says if input costs are still a budget problem for you, look at the results of a soil test.

· Fall or spring, your P & K application will produce the same yield. That is the opinion of MO soil fertility specialist Peter Scharf who also warns that if you did not get a P & K application prior to the 2009 crop, there is a potential for yield loss in your 2010 crop. But he says in the case of wheat, fall is the time when P nutrition makes the difference. Read more: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v19n21/a11.pdf .

· Consumer demand for pork is strong, but just how strong is an enigma to MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They quote USDA as saying there has been a 4% increase in demand for Jan-Sept compared to last year. Grimes and Plain doubt that degree of strength, but say consumer demand is as strong or stronger than 2008. They also challenge USDA's way of measuring demand. They argue that credit should be given to the tonnage sold at lower prices, not just tonnage sold at regular prices.

· Over 208,000 head have been removed from the US dairy herd so far this year, but OH dairy specialist Cameron Thraen says another 200,000 needs to be removed, so the national herd can drop under 9 million head. He says, "That will put farmers in a more stable position of balancing the domestic use market with only a small international component." He says the current $12.20 cwt price should rise to $15.00 in 2010.

The speed (or lack of) of grain drying is certainly one of the critical elements making for harvest concerns this year. Last week, a grain drying webinar was held and I thought I'd pass on some of the info discussed there. First, there is a recording of the program as well as the power point slides available at the following address. www.grainnet.com/webinars

-The speaker (Dr. Dirk Maier, Kansas State) emphasized that you don't have to dry corn to 15% moisture this fall to safely store it.

-To improve grain drying efficiency, the use of 2 stage (or combination) drying systems should be utilized. With this method, you dry corn down to 19-20% then transfer to another bin, where you allow it to steep (sit) for 6-12 hours, then air it. This allows the grain mass to become more uniform in moisture (the speaker mentioned that grain exiting a dryer will vary widely in moisture, even though the average moisture is low). After the 6-12 hours, turn on the air (need near 1cfm/bushel airflow) to remove another couple of points out of the grain, and you can safely store 16-17% corn for 280 days at 40 degrees or 130 days at 50 degrees. But since you'll be airing the grain to take it down to 35-40 degrees for winter, you'll not have any loss. Then take advantage of spring warmth to get the grain down to 14-15% for storage into summer.

-Remember to take the center out of the bin to removing the fines and broken kernels to improve air flow. Don't forget to level the bin after this to improve air flows.

Rules of thumb-

-this fall you'll need lots of air and energy and time

-the higher the air drying temp the faster the drying time- however don't take more than 5 points of moisture out of corn per hour, or you'll lose quality

-the wetter the corn, the higher temp you can use without damaging the grain- you can use heat as high at 200 plus degrees on corn 18% or higher without damaging, as the maximum kernel temperature would only get to 140 degrees or so. However, if you continued drying down past 18% with this high of heat, you'd damage the grain. So his recommendation was to dry down to 18% then transfer to a bin to steep and then air.

-to check airflow, purchase a static pressure gauge and measure static pressure at the plenum and then contact the fan manufacturer with that info and they can tell you how much airflow you have.

-for frost damaged corn, if test weight above 50# (if it was dent before frost), harvest at 30-35% and dry down and then sell before spring as you probably don't want to try and store this corn long term.

-according to North Dakota, we might see up to 1% moisture loss per week with field drying in Nov. but Dec may only be 2% for the whole month.

Regarding natural air drying corn at various moistures and relative humidities and temperatures- Natural air drying is or will shortly be almost nonexistent due to cooler temperatures. The main criteria is the amount of air you can provide. Air flows as high as 1cfm/bushel are ideal. Many bins can't provide that sort of air flow. Using the following chart, at 40 degrees air temp and 50% humidity, it will take 14.4 days to dry 18% corn to 15%.

http://cropwatch.unl.edu/web/cropwatch/archive?articleID=1990301

-Cooler temperatures are probably going to favor us by allowing higher moisture corn to be stored for longer periods of time. For instance, 24% moisture corn can be safely stored for 40 days at a temperature of 40 degrees, but only 15 days at a temperature of 50 degrees. We have available the chart showing approximate storage days at various temps and grain moistures.

- Also remember to check the condition of the grain regularly. There are numerous reports of grain going out of condition already this year.

· At the outset of the week, 43 million acres of soybeans remained in the field and 63.5 million acres of corn were still standing. KS State marketing specialist Mike Woolverton says that is causing the market to talk about yield losses and quality problems. But he says there is no way to judge the impact until enough is harvested to give a good picture.

· Despite the delayed harvest and its related problems, Woolverton says prices fell as farmers sold to capture the previously high prices, overseas buyers pulled back because of high prices, and "the anemic dollar gained in value." But he says the market really turned down because of the longterm weather forecast for better harvest weather ahead. Woolverton says the dollar has been on a downward trajectory, and when that happens oil prices move back toward the $80 range and grain and oilseed prices follow the oil lead.

· Woolverton says crop analysts have lowered private yield projections for corn and beans. He says if the national average corn yield is 160 bu., ending stocks will be 10% of usage, but he says if ending stocks drop below 10% of use, the supply tightens and prices rise. More: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp

· Think about these issues, which Woolverton discusses in his newsletter:
1) 10-12 days of good weather will be needed for crops and fields to dry out, then soybean harvest will move faster than corn, which will slow from a drying bottleneck.
2) Market analysts say harvest lows are in when at least half the crop is harvested, which will be soon for soybeans but will take another week and a half for corn.

· Don't wait for "Indian summer," says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, if your standing corn is too wet to harvest. He says stalk health and grain quality continue to deteriorate due to the processes of weathering and disease. Nielsen says grain moisture typically decreases not much more than ¼ to ½ a percentage point per day at normal temperatures.

· Nielsen cites the average daily temperature in IN as 53º for October, but that drops to 42º for November. He says that explains why the rate of grain moisture loss in the field drops quickly in October and "flat lines" through November. He says if you factor in the cooler than normal October temperatures this year it is no surprise why grain moisture has not changed very significantly in recent weeks. He says don't expect much more. More: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.09/CropProgress-1027.html

· You may have moldy corn, but is it a real problem? OH State specialists say before abandoning a cornfield, make several determinations. They say ear mold may not be widespread within a field, and it may not be the variety that causes mycotoxins. Read: more about ear rots at: http://corn.osu.edu/story.php?setissueID=326&storyID=1941 .
1) Walk you fields, and examine multiple ears for signs of ear rot.
2) If you have an ear rot, determine its variety and whether it produces mycotoxins.
3) If the mold is a hazard, determine how widespread it in throughout the field.
4) Examine 50 to 100 ears at multiple locations spread out throughout the field.
5) In the case of aflatoxin, a black light test should be checked if it fluoresces.
6) A positive black light test does not prove the toxins are present with the aflatoxin.

· Moldy corn is being reported in MN, but plant pathologist Dean Malvick says identify it before taking action. He says most of the problem is superficial growth on kernels, and it may stop growing once the corn is harvested and dried. He says the more severe molds inside the kernel may produce mycotoxins and that restricts the potential use of the corn. Read more at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2007/07MNCN42.html .

· Gibberella ear rot has reached levels not seen in IN for decades, say Purdue plant pathologists. And the presence of gibberella has lead to reports of high levels of the mycotoxin DON, or vomitoxin. That poses a concern if the grain becomes livestock feed. Gibberella also produces zearalenone which can lead to livestock infertility.

· The Purdue specialists say corn growers should scout remaining fields of corn and take note of areas and hybrids with ear rot problems. If gibberella is present with its pinkish discoloration of kernels, contact your crop insurance agent before harvest for instructions on whether to harvest the field, or leave a strip of corn for adjusters to examine.

· Test your corn before feeding it to livestock, or even putting it in livestock feeders, say Purdue livestock specialists, who are concerned about the presence of mold and toxins:
1) Pigs will reduce feed intake if DON levels are above 2 parts per million.
2) Pigs will have complete feed refusal if DON levels exceed 10 parts per million.
3) Poultry is not as sensitive as hogs to the toxins produced by gibberella molds.
4) DON or vomitoxin under 7.5 parts per mil. will suppress the immune system in poultry
5) Lower test weights from diplodia changes the germ and endosperm proportions in a kernel of corn, shifting amino acid and energy balances of the livestock ration.

· Wet corn? Depending on moisture above 15%, drying time with natural air could take up to 27 days at 60ºF, 36 days at 50ºF, or 40 days at 40ºF, if the starting moisture was 21%. Consult: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/web/cropwatch/archive?articleID=1990301

· Wet beans? Depending on moisture above 13%, drying time with natural air could take up to 29 days at 60ºF, 38 days at 50ºF, or 42 days at 40ºF, if the starting moisture was 19%. Consult: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/web/cropwatch/archive?articleID=1971361

· Dry soybeans with caution, says Purdue grain quality specialist Matt Roberts, since high temperature drying of 160-180º can lead to excessive cracking of the seed coat. He says there will be less cracking and fewer splits if the humidity is above 40%. He says, "For example, if outside air is 60°F with a relative humidity of 80%, it should not be heated above 80°F because when heated to that temperature air relative humidity will be 40%." Read more: http://extension.entm.purdue.edu/pestcrop/2009/issue26/index.html .

· Medium temperature soybean drying can be accomplished if beans have high levels of moisture and the drying occurs in a continuous flow dryer or a drying bin. Roberts says if seed quality is not a concern, beans may be dried at 120-140º, but limit exposure to not more than a half hour depending on how high the original moisture level was. He says when heat is added to the bin, make it intermittent, to avoid extended exposure.

· Low temperature soybean drying can be done with natural air drying, and Roberts says that will allow 2-3 points of moisture to be removed if ambient air temperatures are adequate and humidity is low. But he says this process may take several weeks. He says the process can be speeded up if one layer is dried before more beans are added to the bin, or if the bin is equipped with stirrers that thoroughly mix the beans during drying.

· If your combine is creating ruts in wet soils, that is no surprise, say IA State specialists who estimate a loaded grain tank and a 12-row header put 18-20 tons of pressure on the front axle of a combine. But they say those ruts will interfere with your 2010 crop, particularly in getting proper seed depth, as well as crop rooting and development.

· Ruts from heavy equipment on wet soil will not be erased with deep tillage, if the soil is still wet, since it will not properly shatter. They say it will take freezing and thawing action to loosen the soil. They recommend waiting until spring to make a light tillage pass, and then only work those areas of the field where ruts remain. If the 2010 growing season shows the impact of ruts, consider deep tillage after next year's harvest.

· New IRS regulations have lengthened the time for farmland estates to be settled. IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen says in cases where environmental questions are unresolved, estates must remain open and assets cannot be distributed. He says those are new challenges for executors: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/postdeathguidance.html .

· Hog prices are higher, but MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain wonder why. They report, "Slaughter in recent weeks has run 5-7% above mid-Aug. Therefore, these higher prices are not supply driven. The best guess is there is some improvement in exports since August and the increased spending on pork for October Pork month. Whatever the reason, it is appreciated." But they warn, "The $70-plus summer 2010 futures for lean hogs may be influencing producers to slow or stop the decline in the breeding herd. The latest data show both sow and gilt slaughter below a year earlier."

· Improve your pasture productivity by increasing the livestock species that are grazing, says IL animal systems specialist Dean Oswald. Horses, cattle, goats, and sheep all graze at different heights and eat different plants. Therefore, rotating them all in the same pasture will allow better management of your forage, including weed control. Read more: http://www.livestocktrail.uiuc.edu/pasturenet/paperDisplay.cfm?ContentID=10149

· Managed grazing, says Oswald, allows several positive impacts for your forage:
1) Balance pressure on vegetation, protect natural resources, and reduce erosion.
2) Improve feed quality and quantity through proper forage management techniques.
3) Produce more pounds of livestock per acre, and diversify livestock sales.