For the few who have continued planting wheat through the years, 2009 has definitely not cooperated very well. There were a few acres put in after some early harvest, but for the most part the fields to be planted to wheat still have standing crops in them.

From October 1, the average fly-free date and the date for best yield in our area, we tend to lose about a bushel per day of yield if seedings are made 10 to 20 days late. The average losses are about two bushels per day from 20 to 30 days late in seeding. There is also a tendency to winter kill when seeded late, due to less accumulated sugars in the plants.

To help compensate for less tillering in late plantings, seeding rates are generally increased about 10% for each week after October 1.

More on the crop insurance aspects of Federal Crop on wheat, check the Farmdoc website at http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo09_17/fefo09_17.html

· Mark mid-November on your calendar. That is when MI State grain marketing specialist Jim Hilker says the size of the 2009 crop may be known. He says the October USDA report was based on Oct. 1 conditions, but a lot of crop damage happened after then. "The November 1 USDA crop production survey, to be released November 10 will give us a good update, but I suspect a lot of this corn will have to be harvested before we really know the condition." Read more: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm

· Hilker believes the crop estimate will decline when released in November, "For those that have to deliver at harvest, consider taking some of these prices even before delivery, and don't plan on paying commercial storage, the market is still saying it will not pay. Consider a basis contract if you want to stay in the market. For those with on-farm storage, the market is saying it will pay for using it. Your decision is: do you just wait to price, or lock in some of it now, i.e., hedge or H-T-A. You could do some of both, especially if corn prices have stayed the same or continued to go up after October 20.

· The soybean crop estimate will also drop, thinks Hilker, because of crop damage. But he says the market will still not pay you to store beans, "While a few may be able to take advantage of some basis tightening right after harvest, everybody ought to be considering basis contracts, where you delivery the beans and get 80% of the price to start, or sell cash and buy futures if you want to stay in the market for the longer haul."

· Hilker's bearishness on beans is due to South American production. He says Argentine production will be up 64% after the spring 2009 drought and Brazilian production up 9%; "And this is on top of US production expected to be up 9% this year. So play the market at your own risk, it may be that selling some $9.50 soybeans at harvest turns out to be pretty good. Or South American soybean production could bomb out."

· Wheat producers, says MI State's Jim Hilker, have two problems if their 2009 crop remains stored and unpriced. He says, "The very low market price says the market doesn't want your wheat. And the spreads in the futures contract prices says the market does not want to pay commercial storage. The market says it will pay on-farm stored wheat about the net return of corn through March. But if you have on-farm storage space, greater than your need for corn, consider keeping your on-farm stored wheat."

· Wet harvests are costly. Costs may reach $100 per acre for drying and shrink says IL Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey due to high moisture levels in corn. He is concerned that your 2009 farm budget did not include that expense. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo09_16/fefo09_16.html

· Your 190 bu. yield coming out of the field at 25% moisture may be 216 bu. in the truck but you are only selling 186 bu. at 15% moisture when 1.4% shrink is applied. The shrink loss of $15, plus $76 drying cost per acre mean a $91 revenue loss per acre.

· Waiting for Mother Nature to dry your corn, will save money, but many farmers are reporting their corn is drying too slowly or not at all when left in the field. Schnitkey says field drying from 32% moisture down to 31% will save $13 per acre in drying costs. But he says consider the potential for field losses if corn remains standing.

· Call several elevators and ask about their policies and calculations for drying and shrink. Schnitkey says you may find several variations, some of which may be more appealing than your nearby elevator, particularly if the corn is to be sold or stored. And he says some elevators base drying charges on wet bushels and others on dry bushels.

· Immature corn will have trouble drying down, says ND ag engineer Ken Hellevang, and it will have low test weights and potential ear molds. He says the only way to stop those is either drying or ensiling. Hellvang has a newsletter with several grain drying tips. http://www.extension.org/pages/Postharvest_Tips_for_Later-maturing_Corn

· Drying #1. Standing corn will only dry 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points per day, even with a warm temperature and a dry breeze, but that rate quickly declines with the calendar. Field drying is more economical until mid to late October and mechanical high temperature drying is more economical after that point says Hellevang.

· Drying #2. Corn above 21 percent moisture should not be dried using natural air and low-temperature drying to minimize corn spoilage during drying. Hellevang recommends an airflow rate of 1.25 cubic feet per minute per bushel (cfm/bu) to reduce drying time. Adding heat does not permit drying wetter corn and only slightly increases drying speed.

· Drying #3. Shelled corn can be stored in a grain bin at moisture contents up to about 25 percent if it is kept below 30 degrees using aeration. Corn kernels above about 25 percent moisture may freeze into a clump that causes unloading problems.

· Drying #4. Use the maximum allowable drying temperature in a high-temperature dryer to increase dryer capacity and energy efficiency. Be aware that high drying temperatures result in a lower final test weight and increased breakage susceptibility in the corn.

· Drying #5. Dryeration will increase the dryer capacity about 50 percent to 75 percent, reduce energy used by about 25 percent and remove about 2 to 2.5 points of moisture (0.25 percent for each 10 degrees the corn is cooled). Hellevang says with dryeration, hot corn from the dryer is placed in a dryeration bin with a perforated floor, allowed to steep for four to six hours without airflow, cooled and then moved to a storage bin.

· Drying #6. Using the maximum drying temperature that will not damage the corn also can reduce energy consumption. The amount of energy required to remove a pound of water is about 20 percent less using a drying air temperature of 200 F than 150 F.

· Drying #7. The estimated quantity of propane needed to dry is 0.02 gallon per bushel per point of moisture removed. Propane will cost about $53 to remove 10 percentage points of moisture from 120 bushels of corn using $2 propane.

· 1974 may have been the last time that diplodia, giberella, and other corn fungal rots were seen to this extent, says Purdue ag engineer Richard Stroshine. He says farmers are going to have to take extra precaution in storing and drying down grain this year. He says if your corn is moldy, remove as much of the broken kernels and fines as possible before storage, then dry it to 14% moisture and don't expect it to store as well as usual.

· You have a field of moldy corn. Do you blend it with good corn when putting it in the bin? Not now, says Stroshine, "Farmers may want to mix their corn with high levels of mold with their good corn, but my recommendation would be to segregate the good corn from the bad. It should be handled separately. Then if need be, it can be blended later."

· Within fields, significant variation in grain moisture may exist among plants that died prematurely and those that matured more normally, say OH State agronomists. "In such fields, growers should be prepared for stalk lodging problems (associated with drought stress) that may slow harvest and contribute to yield losses. The loss of one "normal" sized ear per 100 feet of row translates into a loss of more than one bushel/acre."

· What is your soybean component content? IA State soybean agronomist Palle Pedersen says the September heat pushed soybeans to maturity, without completing pod fill. As a result protein values are a low 31-34%, and oil content is above average at 19+%. High protein meals will be 45-47%, but essential amino acids will not decline as much as protein, so the beanmeal will be potentially good for swine and poultry nutrition.

· Soybeans that were frost damaged will have less extractable oil, and it will carry a green color, which must be removed with a high cost bleaching process. But for farmers green soybeans will carry pod pieces with them which are hard to separate. In the bin green or immature soybeans will spoil faster and the oil becomes rancid and value drops.

· The late and immature beans will likely be wet, says IA State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh. He says, "Soybeans dry more easily than corn so air alone, or heat no more than 120F will be adequate. Monitor drying frequently to prevent overdrying. And he adds, wet soybeans should not be held in bunkers, piles, flat storages, sheds or other structures where airflow is not well distributed. Read his and Pedersen's newsletter http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/1019hurburgh.htm

· If you are frustrated over frost-damaged beans, Hurburgh says, "The best strategy is to aerate and store for 40-60 days before selling. The greenness may subside enough to be below the color threshold of the Grades. In cases of dispute over grading, submit the sample to a USDA licensed grading agency for resolution. Protein levels are likely to be below average; oil levels above average in Iowa soybeans."

· You may have revenue insurance, but you may also need weather insurance to indemnify you against adverse weather that prolongs harvest and results in harvest losses. The insurance is based on a weather derivative and priced on historic rainfall by date. It is still available for this fall, but there is a 14 day waiting period. For policy and price information contact Central Crop Insurance Services, kenagrisk@yahoo.com

· Your haste to harvest may have caused you to operate in fields with wet soils, and that may result in compaction with yield loss in future years. You may view that as the lesser of the evils, but there are some measures you can take to minimize compaction damage.
1) Restrict heavy equipment or truck traffic in fields to specific tracks or lanes.
2) Drive grain carts in prior combine tracks and avoid diagonal field crossings.
3) Keep trucks on the road, if possible, but if not, restrict them to the end rows.
4) Compaction is only reversed by wetting and drying, freezing and thawing over time.

· If liming is on your to-do list, ensure that you are applying the correct amount. Two soils, both with a 5.5 pH, may need two different amounts of lime says IL agronomist Matt Montgomery. He says it all depends on whether the hydrogen ions are floating or attached to soil particles, and if floating, the soil may need twice as much lime. Consult with a fertility supplier or Extension specialist and ask about the Cation Exchange.

· It's pretty, but you probably would rather enjoy your spring without a healthy crop of butterweed in your fields. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says it will soon be emerging in your fields, particularly no-till fields, and his herbicide performance chart http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1232 says fall applications do better.

· Adverse harvest weather has been adverse to cow-calf producers says UT State livestock economist Dillon Feuz, "The result has been the corn price has increased about $0.50 per bu. That certainly has pressured feeder cattle prices lower. The other on-going and worsening situation is there continues to be no money in feeding cattle. While it appeared back in the spring that feedlots were poised to finally start making a little money feeding cattle, that hope disappeared through the summer and early fall."

· Feuz has a stern warning to cow-calf producers about their relationship with feedlots, some of which have become bankrupt. He says, "Certainly, those who remain in business have limited ability to bid up feeder cattle prices. While cow-calf producers never want to sell their calves too cheap to feedlots, they may actually want to this year, or there may be no feedlots left to buy their calves next year."

· What is the most economical feed for your livestock? (And don't forget to factor in the moisture content of the corn or distillers' grain). At that point it just got complicated, so you need the "Cost of Feedstuffs Calculator." Find and download the calculator at: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/pubs/FASTtool_special_feedstuffs.asp The feedstuffs library includes 120 different feedstuffs comprising: 22 company co-products; 25 by-products; 5 new generation co-products; 27 forages; 11 grains; 9 crop residues; 12 silages; and 9 supplements. And you can include your own farm-produced feeds.

· USDA's price estimates of a $3.30 average price for 2009 corn and $275 per ton for soybean meal will help livestock producers say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. But they say the resulting $3-4 per cwt reduction in production cost is not enough to erase the red ink of the past year. They say the breeding herd needs to be cut substantially more than what the September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report projected.

· USDA's corn yield forecast is on track with growing season weather and crop condition ratings says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good. But he says the USDA forecast bean yield is a bit below the crop condition ratings and his estimates based on growing season weather. He says typically, yield forecasts increase in Nov., but 2009 is not a typical year. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/marketing/weekly/html/101209.html

· 2009 is not typical, says Good, because the growing season for late maturing crops was ended early by freezing temperature. He says that may have reduced yield, along with widespread incidents of disease in both corn and beans, causing quality issues. Good believes that USDA's November crop report may very well show a decline in yields.

· Darrel Good says corn prices have climbed 65¢ and beans have risen over $1.00 per bushel while USDA has continued to push upward its crop estimates. That is because of strong demand. He says the ethanol industry has recovered substantially, and there are higher estimates for corn being used for livestock feed than in earlier estimates.

· Darrel Good says soybean prices have been held up by the strength of exports, which are now at a predicted record of 1.305 bil. bu. for the new marketing year. Currently, exports and unshipped commitments are at 758 mil. bu., up 350 mil. bu. from last year.

· If you are concerned about pricing, Good says the crop size and quality concerns will keep corn and bean prices strong. He suggests that higher prices should lead producers toward pricing strategies that have less storage and more harvest time pricing.

· Looking back at the USDA World Supply-Demand Report, KS marketing specialist Mike Woolverton says the estimate for Chinese corn production was cut by 200 mil. bu., and global corn stocks were also lowered. He concludes that lower global stocks could put upward pressure on US corn prices, and China may be in the market for corn.

· Woolverton found nothing to be bullish about in the wheat market. He says US stocks are at a 9 year high after raising production and lowering use. Exports will be down because of competition from Russia, Canada, and Australia. He says despite global production being down 2% this year, global stocks will be up 12% this year. He is hoping wheat prices will follow corn and bean prices higher during the year.

· If you are putting price targets on your grain, Michigan St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker provides some price probabilities, based on futures as of October 14:
1) Dec corn: 80% probability between $4.52 & $3.19, with the midpoint at $3.79.
2) Mar corn: 80% probability between $5.10 & $2.93, with the midpoint at $3.86.
3) Jul corn: 80% probability between $5.65 & $2.77, with the midpoint at $3.95.
4) Jan beans: 80% probability between $11.84 & $8.26, with the midpoint at $9.88.
5) Mar beans: 80% probability between $12.50 & $7.72, with the midpoint at $9.82.
6) Jul beans: 80% probability between $13.33 & $6.92, with the midpoint at $9.59.
7) Dec wheat: 80% probability between $6.03 & $4.30, with the midpoint at $5.09.
8) Mar wheat: 80% probability between $6.81 & $3.99, with the midpoint at $5.21.
9) Jul wheat: 80% probability between $7.66 & $3.74, with the midpoint at $5.35.

· Farm program sign-up may be last on your priority list, but it has begun for the 2010 crop, and farmers who are eligible for Direct Payments may request advanced payments. Those payments would equal 22% of the applicable payment and will be made on Dec. 1. The deadline for sign-up for Direct, Counter-cyclical payments and ACRE is June 1.

· "Striking" is the description used by IL crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger to describe the departure of 2009 growing degree days from normal. He says generally, the GDD predictions of maturity have held up fairly well this year, meaning that it took all of September in many fields for the crop to reach maturity. Late planting did not help. Read his newsletter at: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1236 Nafziger also says frost started the dry-down process earlier and may reduce drying costs.

· What is your kernel size? Emerson Nafziger says kernel size this year seems to be unusually large, even in later planted fields, which he terms "a positive development." He says where kernels were still immature when frost killed the plant, some of the grain size will be lost, but since kernels were larger than usual, the yield will still be good.

· What will stalk quality be? Nafziger does not anticipate much of a problem with stalk quality in connection with an early freeze. He says many stalks strengthened over the past month by increasing the presence of lignin; therefore stalk sugar content is not as important this fall for stalk strength. He says very immature corn could have problems.

· When kernels get to the dryer Nafziger says high temperature drying may caramelize some of the sugars at the tip of the kernel. That may darken and may change the shape of the kernel. Those kernels may also have a lower test weight, and the combination of weight and discoloration may result in pricing discounts at the elevator. He says there is no difference in feed quality, however there is less starch needed by ethanol refiners.

· Natural drying may stop at 17% to 18% moisture at this time, says IA agronomist Roger Elmore, and without many chances for field drying, he says attention needs to be given to stalk health. That means producers may have to harvest wetter corn first if it is lodging.

· IA State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh says expect drying cost to be 5¢ per point of moisture removed, and 23% moisture corn will cost 40¢ per bushel, plus the loss from shrink. He says that means you may have an incentive to hold corn at higher moisture, and await better drying conditions in the spring, or blending opportunities, or sale of the grain to buyers of high moisture grain, but that could create high risks.

· Shrink is an issue for high moisture grain, which is 1.17% per point for corn and 1.15% for beans. Hurburgh says any additional deduction in the market shrink calculation is an allowance for material handling losses. That would be a 0.22% handling loss if the elevator calculates shrink at 1.4% per point of moisture. He says an elevator experiences 1% overall handling loss and a good farm system would have about 0.5% loss. But both of those exclude any weight loss from spoilage if the grain goes out of condition.

· Tests weights under 54 lbs. should be dried to under 15% moisture if they are going to be stored for any length of time. And breakage of kernels is a potential problem. Hurburgh says low test weight corn, which has been dried, should not be stored into warm weather next year. As moisture is removed, corn will gain test weight, and there will be more gain with low temperature drying compared to temperatures over 150ºF.

· Soybean harvest, storage, and handling tips are handy given current weather conditions:
1) Grain storage tips, and formulas for crop drying storage and handling. http://www.extension.umn.edu/specializations/cropsystems/M1080-FS.pdf
2) Soybean drying, handling, and storage. http://www.soybeans.umn.edu/crop/harvest/
3) "Harvest soybeans as early as possible." http://www.extension.umn.edu/extensionnews/2009/soybean-harvest-storage.html

· MN and WI farmers may have suffered significantly when the freezing temperatures halted the growth and maturity of substantial corn and soybean acres. If frost damaged less mature crops, MN agronomists say different management would be required, and they have created a website for that: http://www.extension.umn.edu/frost/

· Grain drying fans are humming throughout the country. If yours is not, your grain shelf life may be shortened, according to NE ag engineer Tom Dorn's rules of thumb:
1) When corn over 17% moisture is held at a constant temperature, the shelf life is cut in half for every 2% increase in moisture content.
2) When corn over 17% moisture is held at a constant temperature, the shelf life is cut in half for every 10ºF rise in temperature.
3) Grain stored without aeration will heat from microbial respiration and will have a shelf life about one-third as long because heat increases that activity, causing more heat.

· Do a favor for yourself and your neighbors. Clean the buckthorn out of fencerows, waste areas, and along creek banks. It's not that you don't already have a lot to do, but the less buckthorn, the less of a problem with soybean aphids next year. Buckthorn will not resprout from underground roots, but stumps that are cut off will regrow. Pictures and detailed instructions: http://www.inhs.uiuc.edu/chf/outreach/VMG/buckthorn.html

· If you don't believe that eradicating some buckthorn bushes will help, think again. Those swarms of soybean aphids in September were all traveling to their winter quarters on buckthorn growing on your property and that of your neighbors. Researchers have found buckthorn leaves totally covered with soybean aphids, meaning management issues for 2010. Unbelievable pictures: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1229

· There is an 11 year trend in the population of European corn borer says IL entomologist Mike Gray, and the trend is downward, due to the introduction of Bt hybrid corn. He says the widespread use of Bt corn has significantly suppressed corn borer populations. Gray says that trend may lead to a decision that his annual survey can be discontinued.

· The widespread use of Bt corn has also lead to questions about the populations of corn root worms says Mike Gray. He says the wet 2009 spring suppressed some, but the use of Bt corn and increased use of soil insecticides may show a downward rootworm trend.

· I have diplodia in my corn. Your test weight may be light. If the cob is rotted, it may spread through the grain. Pieces of cob may result in discounts for foreign material. The elevator may also levy a dockage for the presence of kernels damaged by diplodia.

· I don't want diplodia next year. Choose hybrids with better resistance. Avoid planting corn into fields in 2010 that had high rates of diplodia in 2009. Bury corn residue as much as possible in fields with heavy infestation. Foliar fungicides have little effect.

· Your fall to-do list may include control of winter annual weeds, and if you need some quick guidelines to save time, IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says consider these:
1) the warmer the winter weather, the more weed growth, compared to northern Cornbelt.
2) If soil residual activity is needed, apply early, if not, wait for weeds to begin growing.
3) Ensure that you know what weeds are growing and use effective herbicides for them.
4) Even with a soil residual herbicide applied now, the field may not be clean next spring.
5) When winter annuals are eliminated, some summer annuals emerge sooner than usual.
6) Do not expect to prevent waterhemp next spring by using a fall applied herbicide.
7) Fall applications allow higher rates which may control glyphosate tolerant weeds.

· Kill a chickweed, kill a cutworm. That's the essence of recommendations of OH entomologists, who say a weed free seedbed in the spring will reduce the locations for moths to lay cutworm eggs, particularly on chickweed. They are urging a fall application of herbicides to eradicate weeds and the potential for early spring homes for cutworms.

· Your combine is your friend, but sometimes friends spread things we don't appreciate and combines will spread weed seeds and fungal molds, says IL plant pathologist Vince Davis. He says, "if at all possible," combine weedy patches last to quarantine seeds, and the same with moldy areas of soybean fields. If it is not possible, ensure the combine is as clean as possible before moving onto fields that have not been impacted by problems.

· Conditions are ripe for Phomopsis seed rot in soybeans, particularly because of harvest delays from wet weather. It is a fungal disease resulting in chalky white, shriveled, shrunken soybeans. OH plant pathologist Anne Dorrance says seed may be infected and not show symptoms, but will die when put through germination tests now. However some of the fungi will die during storage and germination rates may be higher later. She says seed with levels of infection less than 20-25% can be managed with Fludioxonil.

· Pork is popular, believe MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, who say, "The demand for pork at the consumer level was up 3.9% for January-August. For this period consumer demand for beef was down 2%, broiler down 3.4% and turkey was up 5.6% compared to the same period in 2008." Feeder pig prices are spiraling upward.

· USDA's October Crop Report will be released today, and while yield projections will be adjusted, the market is also expecting acreage adjustments for corn and soybeans. Those changes would result from crop insurance data now available to USDA statisticians. USDA forecast corn at 12.955 bil. in September, and beans at 3.245 bil. bu.

· Ahead of the crop report, the market was anticipating corn production between 12.701 bil. and 13.244 bil. bu. with a 12.986 bil. average. The corn yield estimates ranged from 159.6 to 165.5 bu., with a 161.9 average. Bean production was estimated by the market between 3.150 bil. and 3.411 bil. bu. with an average yield guess just under 42.8 bu.

· Ahead of the Monday freeze, crop forecasters said the corn is immature and vulnerable for 60% of ND, 50% of WI, 40% of MI, 40% of MN, 35% of IL, 30% of IN, 30% of OH, 20% of SD, 20% of NE, 10% of IA, and 10% of MO. Another forecaster with similar estimates computed the damage would affect more than 232 mil. bu. of immature corn.

· The combination of freezing temperature halting corn maturity and the resulting light test weights leads MI St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker to doubt the accuracy of either the Oct. or Nov. USDA crop reports. He says, "This is not a criticism of USDA, but rather the fact of a very late maturing corn crop." He's waiting for the final report in Jan.

· Hilker says the market is willing to pay for on-farm corn storage with the monthly spread of 4¢+ per month. However that is not enough to cover commercial storage plus lost interest. His advice is, "Those who need off-farm storage and are pretty sure the market is going up should consider basis contracts, sell cash-buy futures, sell cash-buy call options, a minimum price contract, or sell cash and an appropriate call spread."

· Hilker's probability for Dec corn: "There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $4.03 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $2.89. This indicates an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices. There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $3.41."

· Hilker's probability for Nov beans: "There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $10.20 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $8.38. This indicates an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices. There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $9.24."

· US corn exports will increase, thanks to smaller corn crops in Canada, South Africa, and China, which are competitors says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good, pushing the US share of world corn trade to 65% from 60% last year. He says global demand will grow 9% because of smaller European and Mexican crops and more Chinese demand. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/100509.html

· US soybean exports will remain steady with fewer purchases by Europe and China being offset by more purchases from Japan and Mexico. Good says that is happening at the same time Argentine and Brazilian exports are increasing. Production was down 31% in Argentina and 7% in Brazil last year, but planting will increase in both nations this year. Good says Argentina will raise 700 mil. more bu. and 185 mil. more in Brazil.

· Soybean rust spread with a vengeance in the past several weeks, being found in every county in AL, all but 1 county in MS, nearly all of AR and LA, and spreading up the Mississippi River to southern MO and southern IL. It now has been found in 370 counties in 16 states as of Oct. 8. The most northern county is McDonough Co. in Illinois, near the Mississippi River at the latitude where the states of IA and MO meet.

· Soybean rust reached the MO bootheel with the help of a weather system on Sept. 10. MO plant pathologist Allen Wrather says the recent infections were fresh, extensive, but would cause little damage because of the maturity of most soybeans, which were in stage R6. However, some July planted beans which were in stages R3 to R5 will be susceptible to damage and Wrather says farmers will need to make a decision on treatment.

· Discolored soybeans, if you have them, are the result of many weather-related fungi that found this year to be perfect to work overtime. MO plant pathologist Laura Sweets identifies many. http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v19n20/a3.pdf Sweets says many of the pathogens causing discoloration will survive on seed beans, and heavily infected seed, if planted next year will produce diseased seedlings and poor stands.

· Immature soybeans will not mature in the bin says MO crop specialist Bill Wiebold, "If death occurs late in the seed-filling, the green color is confined to the seed coat. If death occurs during early to mid fill, the green color remains throughout the interior of the seed." Green soybeans produce green soybean oil and processors will charge dockage because consumers do not want to cook or fry with vegetable oil with a green color.

· If your soybeans did not mature before the freeze, Wiebold says split them with a knife and if only the coat is green, the soybeans should be classified as yellow beans and not docked. He says if less than 90% of the seed interior is yellow they will be graded as "soybeans of other color." A load with 10% "other color" will be graded as standard and could receive substantial dockage, and a lesser quality will be graded "total damage."

· Kernels sprouting on the ear are being reported by KY agronomist Chad Lee, who says they are base kernels and are kept moist by the husk structure. And he adds, "Sprouting kernels are not a direct hazard to livestock. However, molds are sometimes associated with sprouting and some molds can produce mycotoxins. If corn is being used for livestock feed, have it checked for mycotoxins. Sprouting kernels will reduce test weight and yield, slightly." He says it is just a symptom of the cool, wet fall.

· Various molds and ear rots may be hiding in your fields, and may necessitate some fields being harvested before others while they are still standing, says IA plant pathologist Alison Robertson. Test at least 100 plants in a field looking for stalk firmness and if lower nodes are weak, which will threaten standability. Harvest weaker corn first.

· Diplodia ear rot is a dense white mold between kernels, making them light weight and reducing nutritional value. Toxins are not produced. Diplodia usually spreads in the field but can be a problem in storage if the grain moisture exceeds 20%.

· Giberella ear rot begins at the tip of the ear with a pink to red colored mold and can be found on ears damaged by hail. It will produce DON also known as vomitoxin.

· Fusarium ear rot is indicated by a white, pink, or salmon colored mold anywhere on the ear. It is usually found where insects have damaged kernels or the ear has been damaged by hail and kernels turn brown. Fusarium produces a mycotoxin called fumonisin.

· Giberella stalk rot causes a pink to reddish discoloration of the pith inside a corn stalk, but on the outside will be small, round, bluish-black bodies near the nodes of the stalk.

· Anthracnose stalk rot will have black shiny lesions on the outside of the stalk and on the inside, the pith of affected corn plants will be discolored and shredded.

· For some good news….corn will be able to break the 300 to 350 bu. barrier says Purdue agronomist Tony Vyn, as long as each plant has every opportunity to compete with other plants in the row, and inputs such as nitrogen and population are not limiting factors.

· What corn hybrids are you planting next year? MN corn specialist Jeff Coulter says the steadily increasing yield is a result of picking hybrids that closely approximates the growing degree days in your area. He says pick them to mature 10 days prior to frost.
1) Plant multiple hybrids to spread risk and widen out the harvest interval.
2) Yield varies more within a relative maturity rating than between maturity groups.
3) Select hybrids that are top performers in multiple test sites and in different weather.
4) Select hybrids on standability, disease tolerance, and need of transgenic resistance.

· Livestock producers grazing sudangrass or sorghum sundangrass should move animals away from those forages for several days following a frost that would produce prussic acid. Sudangrass 18+ inches or sorghum sudangrass that is 30+ in will recover in 3-4 days. Hold livestock away for 10 days to 2 weeks if the grass was shorter. New shoots on partially frosted plants can be toxic as well, and should be avoided for 2 weeks.

· Alfalfa, clover, and other perennial forages do not produce toxins and can be grazed or baled and fed to livestock after a killing frost. If the forage is not needed, IA forage specialist Stephen Barnhart says it is best for the plants to be uncut and left for the winter. Alfalfa cut after a partial freeze will re-grow and use up energy needed for next spring.

· What is your soil pH? If you don't know, you need a soil test; and if it is too acidic because of your regular nitrogen applications (hint), you may need a good dose of lime. IL crop specialist Jim Morrison says there are many reasons to consider some limestone:
1) Lime lowers the soil concentration of aluminum and manganese, which can be toxic.
2) An increase in soil microbial activity is noted as soil acidity is decreased.
3) Liming enhances nitrogen fixation and may improve soil structure and tilth.

· Sample for soybean SCN in the fall, but don't look for corn nematodes. IA plant pathologist Greg Tylka says their numbers decrease in the latter part of the growing season, and if you find some, it is not possible to work backward and estimate how many you may have had. Needle and sting nematodes can be found in lower soil levels.

· Soybean cyst nematodes are best found in the fall, and Tylka says look in your soybean fields if you detect yield loss from SCN. Sample soil at 6-8 inches down, with 15-20 samples taken and blended for a composite sample. A testing lab needs 1 cup of soil.

· Late harvest means late wheat planting for many farmers and OH agronomists say there may be inadequate tiller development before winter dormancy. If planting late, boost the seeding rate to 1.6 to 2.0 million per acre, and recalibrate your drill based on seeds per pound. Plants may be smaller, with shallower roots, and susceptible to heaving. That means plant no-till with a 1.0 to 1.5 inch planting depth to reduce heaving by 95%.

· It is a record-setter. Slaughter steer carcass weights for the 5-state marketing area topped 900# for a weekly average. But livestock economist Dillon Feuz at Utah St. questions any pride. Read his analysis at: http://cattlemarketanalysis.org/index.html1) In 2001, the average steer carcass weight for the same area was only 803#.
2) Prior to 1980 the same steer at the same markets averaged less than 700#.
3) To get consumers to eat more beef, the price must be lowered.
4) Each producer is doing what is best for him: adding more weight.
5) More total weight means a lower general market level price.

· Did you always intend, but never got around, to learn the differences among various financial reports that could identify success or potential problems with your farming operation? If so, MN farm finance specialist James Kurtz offers a series of fact sheets on such reports as Balance Sheets, Income Statement, Statement of Owner Equity, Statement of Cash flows, and a fact sheet on various financial ratios. Find the fact sheets here: http://www.cffm.umn.edu/Publications/pubs/FarmMgtTopics/FinancialManagementSeries.pdf

· Did you always intend, but never got around, to planning out your estate and transferring your tangible assets? If so, several MN farm finance specialists have created a series of fact sheets on what to think about, what to do, and how to go about the process of estate planning. To save time and money before going to an attorney, see: http://www.cffm.umn.edu/Publications/pubs/FarmMgtTopics/EstatePlanningSeries.pdf

· Did you always intend, but never got around, to developing a process to transfer your farming operation to the next generation. If so, several MN farm finance specialists have developed a roadmap for Cornbelt farmers to consider and discuss among family members about ways to financially benefit and protect all parties in that process: http://www.cffm.umn.edu/Publications/pubs/FarmMgtTopics/TransferringTheFarmSeries.pdf

· Are you spending more or less than Brazilian farmers on crop protectants for soybeans? The Oct. 5 newsletter of CropSpotters www.cropspotters.com asked several Brazilian farmers about their soybean chemical costs. Don't worry about the need to equate reals and dollars or hectares and acres. Their answers are already in terms of "bushels per acre" and their costs range in value from 2.7 to 6.9 bushels of soybeans per acre.

Iowa State has some more information on diplodia at this site:

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/1023hurburghrobertsonelmore2.htm

· Both the US corn and soybean markets are impacted by South American crop production, and IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says their size will influence prices in the US. Currently, corn acres in both Brazil and Argentina are expected to decline and soybean acreage in both countries is expected to increase. Read his analysis at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/announcements/agrinews/Sep_2009/agrinews_Sep_2009.html .

· Despite fewer corn acres, total production is expected to increase because of better yields following droughty conditions in the 2008-09 growing season. The total crop is expected to be 2.6 bil. bu., compared to 2.46 bil. bu. last season. However, with more bean acres, production should reach 4.15 bil. bu., up 880 mil. bu. from the 2008-09 crop. 2010 South American crops are expected to benefit from an El Nino.

· Good says those crops will compete with US corn and beans in the export market, but currently, USDA anticipates record US soybean exports of 1.28 bil. bu., and for US corn exports to reach 2.2 bil. in 2010. The latest USDA estimate of global grain exports says Brazil and Argentina will export 100 mil. bu. more corn and bean exports will be steady.

· China is the soybean story according to marketing specialist Chad Hart at IA. He says most soybean importers have faded away, but not China, "At this point last year, China had purchased nearly 190 mil. bu. of soybeans from the US. This year the Chinese have purchased over 420 mil. bu. and we are only a few weeks into the marketing year."

· The latest USDA stocks report indicated year to year shifts in stored grain, says Hart. He notes, "On-farm storage of corn is up 22% from last year, while on-farm storage of soybeans is down 25%. Given the growth in on-farm stocks and the large corn and soybean crops being harvested, storage could be a major issue this year." Read more: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo100109.pdf

· Hart also says the moisture and quality issues will impact storage and marketing decisions. "As like last year, these crops will likely come out of the fields with more moisture than usual. Also, with the hail storms in north central and northeast Iowa this summer, we could see mold be more of a problem this year." And Hart says farmers who cannot handle high moisture grain or quality issues will be selling, softening the basis.

· Rethink grain price ranges says Hart at IA State, because USDA's range of $3.05 to $3.65 for corn and $8.10 to $10.10 for soybeans takes into account grain that was forward contracted at higher prices, which raises the average. Hart says farmers need to look at the average futures prices, which currently forecast $3.20 for corn and $8.76 for beans.

· Many marketing specialists have suggested storing corn to capture the carry and basis improvement and selling beans because of the lack of carry. MN marketing specialist Ed Usset agrees, but for farmers wanting more control of soybeans, he says re-ownership with a July call option has paid out profits in 7 of the past 8 years, but "an at-the-money July 2010 call will cost more than 80¢ per bu., and that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Read his rationale at: http://edsworld.wordpress.com/ .

· Cold air is pouring into the Cornbelt says IA meteorologist Elwynn Taylor, so expect development of patchy frost. He says the location depends on where there are clouds and wind, since clear skies will foster frost development. Taylor says recent fall rains have been welcome because the subsoil has been depleted of moisture and recharge is needed.

· Heat units are needed for corn maturity, and without those, the corn plant will not go through the normal maturing process and it will dry up and die before it matures, says IA corn specialist Roger Elmore. He says some fields have not matured, but have dried down before the black layer was formed in the kernel, indicating normal maturity.

· Some corn has also be pressured into an early maturity by diseases, such as northern corn leaf blight and GLS, as well as some droughty spots around the Cornbelt, says Elmore. He says those factors will reduce kernel weight and reduce quality. Many fungi will cause corn kernels to become "fluffy" and their test weight will be less. Elmore expects NASS statisticians could reduce the 187 bu. yield potential for IA this month.

· If your corn is just not drying down, Purdue corn specialist Bob Nielsen says the issue could be the result of temperature, humidity, sunshine or rain conditions, as well as whether the hybrid was set to mature in August or September. He says it is not unheard of for grain moisture to decline more than 1 point per day when days are warm, sunny, windy and dry. But he says there may be zero drydown on cool, cloudy, and rainy days.

· Corn drydown is a also a function of the hybrid's physiological characteristics, says Purdue's Nielsen: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/GrainDrying.html
1) Faster drydown comes with kernels that have a thinner pericarp or outer wall.
2) Faster drydown comes with ears that have fewer husk leaves.
3) Faster drydown comes with ears that have thinner husk leaves.
4) Faster drydown comes with ears have husk leaves that senesce or die sooner.
5) Faster drydown comes with ears whose husk leaves do completely cover the ear tip.
6) Faster drydown comes with ears whose husk leaves are looser.
7) Faster drydown comes with ears which drop down more quickly.

· Your crop insurance may cover corn damaged from ear rots and other quality issues. IA ag economist William Edwards says you may be indemnified against low test weight, grade discounts, odors and other factors that reduce its quality from #2 yellow corn at 15% moisture. Alert your insurance agent and review Edwards' value calculations at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0929edwards.htm .

· If you have corn damaged by hail, mold, or other factors, call your crop insurance agent to determine the process of leaving field samples before harvest. IA ag engineer Charles Hurburgh and plant pathologist Alison Robertson suggest several steps for you to follow:
1) Scout fields for corn damaged by molds and call agent about quality loss procedures.
2) Take a composite sample from the field, test for toxins, and avoid long term storage.
3) Take load samples, ask for official test weight, grade them daily for inventory purpose.
4) Corn less than 50# is a storage risk and should be marketed first, but cool and dry it.
5) Moldy corn should be stored at moisture levels of 1-2% points below sound corn.
6) Clean any corn known to have toxins, remove center cores of bins to remove fines.

· Do you have stalk rot problems? Scouting will help with the determination, but the 2009 weather was conducive to fungi that attack stalk integrity say NE specialist Tamra Jackson. She says, "On average, stalk rot diseases reduce yield by about 5% each year, although losses can be as high as 10% to 20%, and on rare occasion 100%. She says if more than 10% of plants exhibit stalk rot symptoms harvest that field first. And she adds, "Under severe stalk rot conditions, harvest early and pay the drying cost."

· Late planted soybeans should be scouted for soybean aphids. Midwestern crop specialists are finding significant numbers of aphids on soybeans that have not yet reached the R6 stage, which is full seed. Late planted and double cropped soybeans that still have substantial green vegetation would be attractive to soybean aphid colonies. Before spraying, assess the predator population and potential yield benefits.

· The large number of soybean aphids heading from fields to their wintering grounds on buckthorn is telling OH insect specialists to expect soybean aphid problems next year and the end to alternating cycle of years of the extent of problems. They say that soybean growers should keep alert for an aphid issue in 2010 because of the current phenomenon.

· Weeds interfering with harvest may be candidates for pre-harvest herbicide application to affect their seed production. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager says 2,4-D, Rage D-Tech, Glyphosate, and Gramoxone can be applied to nearly mature corn, with the proper interval prior to harvest, which is usually 7 days. Glyphosate, Gramoxone Inteon, Clarity, and Aim EW can be applied to soybeans with the labeled pre-harvest interval. Hager says pre-harvest herbicides may not do much to limit weed seed production.

· Weed specialist Mark Loux at OH St. says another solution is to wait for a hard freeze and for the weeds to dessicate or become more brittle. He also suggests:
1) The greener the weed, the greater the likelihood of reducing seed viability.
2) Herbicides will be most effective when applied under warm sunny conditions.
3) Glyphosate can control perennials if they are in the appropriate growth stage.
4) Herbicides or a freeze will not force a loss of fruit on black nightshade.

· Wheat being planted after corn or beans should have a good start in a weed free field says Purdue weed specialist Bill Johnson, who is concerned about weeds depleting moisture in a seed bed for wheat. He says there are only 2 broad spectrum herbicides labeled for planting wheat, glyphosate and gramoxone. He says if you have dandelions, or other perennials, use glyphosate, but both can be used for winter annuals. Johnson says 2,4-D is not labeled for fall use and can result in poor pollination and head fill. He also recommends suppression of henbit, purple deadnettle, chickweed, and dandelion.

· USDA will update its small grains estimates for some northern states because harvest was delayed over a significant area of the northern Plains states. The last survey found unharvested acreage for durum wheat in ID, MN, MT, and ND. NASS will contact farmers who had unharvested acreage, and if changes are justified, the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary of yields and stocks will be updated in the Nov. 10 Crop Report.

· IS $60 per acre a good price for selling corn stalks, or will you leave financial benefits in the field? NE specialists say 1 ton of crop residue is created from 40 bu. of corn, 30 bu. of soybeans, or 20 bu. of wheat. Typical crop residue has 17 lbs. of N, 4 lbs of P, and 50 lbs of K per ton. At current prices that is $36 per ton. With stover removal, there is a loss of 4.3 in. of moisture, worth $17 per acre. There is also a drop of 25 bu. in corn yield or a 10 bu. drop in wheat yield. That means the loss is more than the selling price.

· Have you noticed an increase in Northern Corn Leaf Blight? OH corn production specialists report a steady increase since 2001 in its occurrence. They attribute it to an increase in acres planted to hybrids that are susceptible, but say its late appearance this year was probably due to favorable weather conditions late in the growing season.

· If more corn is grown to meet various demands, Purdue specialists say any effort to move toward continuous corn will result in more nitrogen, fungicides, and phosphorous showing up in streams and lakes than with a typical corn and soybean rotation. Purdue ag engineers studied water sources near continuous corn and rotational fields.

· Statistically, we are in the last month in which diesel fuel prices will be less than they were 12 months earlier. Currently, they are about 16% less than a year ago, but prices in Nov. will be above the levels recorded when the oil market collapsed. Dec. should bring diesel prices 24% above Dec. of 2008, and spring tillage time will have diesel fuel 50% to 60% above spring 2009 levels, says economist Kevin Dhuyvetter at KS State. For budgeting 2010 fuel prices, visit: http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf

· Pork profitability may be reached next summer when the IA State "crush margin" for hogs reaches the $50 mark. That would be based on hogs placed in feeding barns in February and marketed in July of 2010. Review the IA calculations at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/lawrence/Excel/pig%20crush%20web.htm .

· The IA State pork profitability model expects prices to exceed variable costs in March of 2010 and total costs in May of 2010. Economists John Lawrence and Shane Ellis say the accumulated losses over the past 2 years have exceeded the 27 months of losses that ended in Jan. 2000. Since there are more hogs now than then, losses per farm are more.

· The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report did not include some substantial cutbacks in the breeding herd. MO economist Glenn Grimes says in the past 4 weeks sow slaughter is up 1.9% and gilt slaughter is up substantially. He says the Sept. 25 Hogs and Pigs Report was based on Sept. 1 numbers, and the cutback trend has increased since then.