· Frost premiums are bid in and out of the market daily says Mike Woolverton at KS State, since the last crop progress report showed 60% of the beans vulnerable and only 21% of the corn mature. And he says the greatest lags in development are in states most likely to experience the early freezing temperatures. The next potential frost date is about Oct. 8, and more acreage will be mature. However, he says even if a killing frost does not arrive until late Oct. some corn and soybeans will be damaged. Read his latest newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp

· Markets have not really responded to the potential for damage, says Woolverton, because energy, currency, and other markets are dominating the commodities market. However, he says while the US will have an adequate supply of corn available to meet demand, there will not be a surplus, and the freeze cushion is not large.

· Woolverton is watching the bean market because of short supplies from the old crop and large demand for the new crop. He says if old crop use is raised by USDA in Oct. that would lower ending stocks further. Any yield loss from frost hurting the new crop will cause stocks to tighten further, and he says there is no freeze cushion for beans.

· The wheat market could be impacted by a freeze, but not in the US. Woolverton says weather in Argentina and Australia has been dry and planted acreage is down 40% in Argentina where "intense frost" is a threat. The same is true for Australian wheat which is threatened by a frost that could support global wheat prices if they happen.

· How wide is your basis for soft red winter wheat? After trying to improve the convergence between futures and cash prices, the administrative efforts of the CBOT have not resolved the wide basis problems, at least for southern IL wheat growers, where spot bids range from $1.61 to $2.07 under the December futures contract. IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good says this magnitude of basis has been common for a long time.

· Darrel Good says the basis for hard red winter wheat is weak, but not to the extent of the SRW contracts. He says the small SRW crop and large carry would normally tell farmers to store, but there is a "fundamental disconnect between the value of SRW to end users and the value established by the futures market." Read more of his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/092109.html .

· The SRW price issue may discourage producers from planting wheat this fall, as well as the lateness in getting corn and soybeans out of the field. Good says the CBOT continues to work on the problem by revising contract specifications, and wanting to avoid forced convergence, which would be cash settlement or forced load out of deliveries.

· The wheat market is in a funk according to Alan May at SD State because, "carryover supplies of wheat are expected to be the largest since 2001 when wheat prices were struggling to exceed the $3.00 per bushel mark." He says wheat production is down, but so is demand and with a 65 mil bu. drop in exports the surplus will grow by 70 mil. bu. Read more of his newsletter at: http://econ.sdstate.edu/Extension/CMA.htm .

· Alan May says, "Wheat supplies have already experienced a significant buildup in 2008 and 2009 so wheat also faces the risk of further buildup of supplies if current demand projections remain constant or weaken. The length of the recovery from the recession will influence demand in the export market as well as in the domestic market."

· Nuances from the September Crop Report are being detected by MI State marketing specialist Jim Hilker, who says there were some encouraging signs of more corn use than previously expected. His newsletter is at: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
1) USDA raised estimates for corn used for ethanol by 25 mil. bu., lowering carryout.
2) Feed use was raised 50 mil. bu., since cheaper feed raises livestock weights.
3) Exports were raised 100 mil. bu., along with lowering global corn production.
4) Despite 193 mil. bu. more production, carryout was only raised 14 mil. bu. from Aug.

· Sept. 30 brings the Quarterly Stocks Report. Jim Hilker says the Sept. 1 corn stocks report becomes the old crop carry-out and new crop carry-in number. Subsequently, that will change the new ending stocks number for the 2009-2010 marketing year.

· We've covered fungal rots in corn previously, but as more farmers head to the field, more of them are finding ears of corn that are moldy. IL plant pathologist Suzanne Bissonnette says most of the problems will either be fusarium or diplodia ear rot.

· Diplodia ear rot will cause a bleached husk and white fluffy fungus around the kernels. However, diplodia will not produce toxins, like the fumonisin produced by fusarium, but the kernels affected by diplodia will be light in weight, shriveled, and poor in quality. Diplodia will thrive in corn stored above 18%. Bissonnette says if the corn can dry in the field, that is beneficial, but once harvested, dry it below 18% for short term storage, or 15% for long term storage. More: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1220 .

· Soybean aphids invaded soybean fields in scattered areas of the Cornbelt, but their presence was really made known when the winged individuals recently began their migration from soybeans to buckthorn. Infestations, with high populations, drew attention of the non-farm media when the public began complaining about flying pests.

· Combines are like pick-up trucks, they carry a lot of things around, and in some cases things you don't want, such as fungus from one soybean field to another. OSU plant pathologist Anne Dorrance says sclerotina fungus is being frequently transferred:
1) Harvest problem fields first, clean the combine, then move to fungus-free fields.
2) Harvest problem fields last, then clean the combine before storing for the season.

· If you have white mold in soybeans, do yourself a favor and reduce its spread next year by the way you combine your beans. IA State specialist X.B. Yang suggests combining the infested areas last, so the combine does not contribute to the spread of the fungus.

· Soybean rust is closing in on the Cornbelt following confirmation that it had spread to the Missouri bootheel thanks to weather perfect for Asian rust. MO plant pathologist Allen Wrather said the infections were extensive with pustules emitting spores. Wrather said most soybeans in that part of the state are in the R6 stage and will not be impacted by rust. But he said soybeans that are R5 or less should be treated with a fungicide. For the latest information about soybean rust consult the USDA website: www.sbrusa.net .

· Harvest may be your priority, but add fall herbicide treatment to your list, says OSU weed specialist Mark Loux, who says schedule that around weed life cycles.
1) Before first frost treat warm season perennials including johnsongrass, pokeweed, milkweeds, hemp dogbane and horsenettle which shut down after the first frost.
2) Even after a hard freeze consider control of winter annuals and biennials, such as chickweed, deadnettle, mustards, cressleaf groundsel and others which emerge in fall.
3) Follow suggestions for cool season weed control at: http://corn.osu.edu/#C

· If drought forced you to sell livestock and tax penalties require replacement of the herd, livestock producers in dozens of Cornbelt counties now have a longer time to do just that. IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen says the 4 year replacement period has been lengthened to "the first tax year after the first drought-free year." But that door is now closing for many counties on this list. http://www.calt.iastate.edu/countiesdrought.html .

· Profitable cattle feeding? IA State's John Lawrence says it is possible for a 650# calf to be purchased and fed with $3 corn and make a profit with basis adjusted $88 per cwt April and May futures. Lawrence provides a cost-price matrix to prove his point. http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/info/info2009/S0906.pdf

· Every little bit helps, say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They calculate that the Sept. Crop Report's new price estimates of $3.35 for corn and $280 for soybean meal will reduce the cost of producing 100# of pork by 50¢ per live cwt. They are looking for a counter-seasonal rally. More: http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull1c.htm

· International trade in pork has changed dramatically from 2008, say Grimes and Plain. Their weekly newsletter reports Jan-July pork exports were down 19.3% from 12 mos. earlier, and pork imports were down 3.6% from year earlier numbers. Pork exports as a share of production were nearly 18% in 2008, and that has declined to 14% for 2009. Live hog imports from Canada were down 32% from the same period of 2008.

· So you want to produce biomass? Your crop year will be focused on pre-harvest crop monitoring (scouting), harvesting, transportation, storage, and analysis of the information you collect. And IL ag engineer K. C. Ting says each of those has many steps as he and colleagues try to prepare farmers to produce the next generation of ethanol. And leave it to an ag engineer to build a small unmanned helicopter to help with his crop scouting.

The weather this year has done more than just delay the maturity of the corn and soybean crop, it has also allowed crop diseases to prosper. In corn, it's not too difficult to find leaf rust, grey leaf spot, northern corn leaf blight, and anthracnose. In addition, ear rots are not uncommon: diplodia and penicillium can be found and fusarium might be present as well. It's doubtful that aspergillus (which can cause aflatoxin) will be present since dry, hot conditions are usually necessary.

Diplodia will cause the ear and kernels to prematurely die, in which case the kernels will be so light they'll not contribute to yield. It's easily identified by the whitish colored mold growing in and among the kernels on the ear. Oftentimes, you'll note the husk will die much earlier than the rest of the plant. Diplodia if oftentimes much worse in continuous corn and when rainfall occurs during pollination. We saw some diplodia last year, but this year we may see more. The only good thing about this disease is that it doesn't produce toxins.

Penicillium can be found in some fields as well. Usually this will occur when the tip of the husk has been exposed, either by the cob extending out through it, or through bird or insect damage. The key symptom of this ear rot would be the bluish/ green mold growing between and on the kernels. This rot may or may not cause toxins. We've seen a number of fields this year in which birds sought out corn during the milk stage to feed on kernels. I think this is the most widespread I've seen bird damage. Ordinarily birds damage ears of corn to get at the insects that are present. That wasn't the case this year as the birds found they could consume the kernels and did so. And in most cases, they didn't really consume many kernels per ear, but numerous visits sometimes caused quite a few ears to be affected. . In doing so, they opened up the ear tip to allow moisture and molds to enter. The high humidities and plentiful rains of August did the rest.

Fusarium ear rot may be the other disease we see this year. Unlike the above two ear rots, I've not seen fusarium yet this year. But like aspergillus, this disease is favored by hot, dry conditions at pollination (so we may escape this particular ear rot). This rot can also produce toxins. Look for orange/pink colored fungal growth.

With all these diseases, the important factor is to get the corn harvested and dried to a moisture content of 15% or below as quickly as possible. Remember that if the bin averages 15% moisture, there will be spots above that. If you plan on keeping the grain, closely monitor the bin for moisture and temperature. If you plan on feeding it, have it tested for toxins. Keep the combine fan speed up to blow out lightweight, fungus infected kernels.

One last thought, I'm wondering if the bird predation we saw this year might be something we will witness regularly in the future. The reason being that the birds have now found out that corn (at milk stage) will satisfy their food needs. Will they be back?

· USDA releases the September Crop Report Friday morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT.
1) The August estimate for corn was 12.761 bil. bu. from a 159.5 bu. yield.
2) Trade estimates range from 12.697 to 13.127 bil. bu., averaging 12.932 bil. bu.
3) The August estimate for beans was 3.199 bil. bu. from a 41.7 bu. yield.
4) Trade estimates range from 3.186 to 3.309 bil. bu. averaging 3.256 bil. bu.
5) The August estimate for corn carryout was 1.720 bil. bu. for the old crop.
6) Trade estimates range from 1.690 to 1.720 bil bu., averaging 1.712 bil. bu.
7) The August estimate for bean carryout was 110 mil. bu. for the old crop.
8) Trade estimates range from 80 to 110 mil bu., averaging 102 mil. bu.
9) The August estimate for corn carryout was 1.621 bil. bu. in August 2010.
10) Trade estimates range from 1.557 to 1.989 bil. bu. averaging 1.768 bil. bu.
11) The August estimate for bean carryout was 210 mil. bu. in August 2010.
12) Trade estimates range from 178 to 304 mil. bu., averaging 226 mil. bu.

· Purdue marketing specialist Chris Hurt says it was "bold" for the USDA to project a 159.5 bu. national yield estimate in the August Crop Report, but he now thinks the national average yield may end up closer to 161.5 bu. per acre. Hurt says not everyone may agree, but he says moderate weather conditions may repeat the 2004 mammoth crop.

· If the crop is that large, Hurt says there may be new contract low prices on corn, and that means vulnerability on the downside of prices. Hurt says the market is probably not thinking about a number quite that high at this point; but the economist expects the crop to continue to look good and even improve a little unless there is a frost. "We're likely to see good returns for corn storage -- depressed prices at harvest time and above normal price appreciation going into next spring and summer," he said.

· Hurt is also bullish on soybean yields and with the crop rating at its highest in recent years, he thinks the prior record of 43 bu. per acre can be surpassed. "This means there is going to be a lot of soybeans, and prices are going to decrease to get end users to come in and buy more of this crop," says Hurt. He says South American could add more beans to the supply and $9 beans out of the field this fall will drop under $9 next spring. "However, he said a lot will depend on world demand, the value of the dollar and the ultimate size of the US and South American crops."

· The September production estimate will change believes Mich. State's Jim Hilker and he adds the market is liable to remain very volatile given remaining production concerns about the corn crop. He says the US corn yield could be anywhere from 8 bu. per acre higher than the August estimate to 159.5 bu. to 6 bu. per acre lower than that. Read more of Hilker's August newsletter at: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .

· Hilker provides some advice on evaluating a decision on storing your corn. He says Dec. futures are 32¢ under July futures, meaning the market is offering 4.6¢ per month to store, which would cover on-farm costs plus interest, but not cover commercial storage.

· Hilker says the basis also helps makes the storage decision. He says the expected improvement of the December to July basis would be 20¢, on top of the 32¢ futures carry in the market. That is a total of 52¢ which would more than cover storage costs for on-farm storage, but the market is questioning the 45¢ value of commercial storage.

· To achieve that return to storage, Hilker says the grain must be sold either with a forward contract which locks in the price or use a hedge to arrive contract or a futures hedge. He says if you think the market will rise or you have to use commercial storage, use a basis contract. If you think the market will drop, use a hedge to arrive or forward contract for farm-stored corn, or sell any corn that would have to be sent to the elevator.

· Production risks remain with the soybean crop also, says Hilker, but a storage decision is not as clear cut. He says there is only an 8¢ spread from November to July futures and storage costs more than 8¢. Hilker adds that the basis may tighten about 20¢ between harvest and June, so the return to storage would total 28¢. Since storage costs and interest are more, Hilker says the market will not pay for storing soybeans. For marketing he says use a basis contract if you think the market will rise, or sell at harvest if you think the market will fall. Regardless, there is no return to storage for beans.

· Crop insurance indemnity payments are great, but will require tax planning say MN farm business specialists. For a physical crop loss, the payment can be deferred for taxes until next year, if you are a cash basis taxpayer and typically market your crop the following year from production. However, indemnity payments received because revenue declined must be reported in the year the payment was received. Read more at: www.cffm.umn.edu/Publications/pubs/FarmMgtTopics/TaxPlanCropRevIns2009.pdf

· Farmland values across the Chicago Federal Reserve District are down 3% compared to year ago levels, caused by drops of 5% in IA & MI, and drops of 2% in IL & WI. IN values were slightly stronger than year ago levels. Fed economist David Oppedahl says corn and bean prices have become a drag on land values, and he adds that plentiful supplies and softer demand will keep downward pressure on farmland values.

· The Chicago Fed reports credit conditions "worsened" April through June, with a drop in repayment rates on non-real estate loans. The rate would have been flat were it not for the dairy impact of Wisconsin, where 55% of lenders reported lower repayment rates.

· The financial outlook reported by economist Oppedahl was stark: "The tone of comments by (lenders) communicated deep concerns for agricultural producers, especially if livestock and dairy prices do not increase soon and losses continue to mount." More: www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/augusut_2009.pdf

· The late August hailstorm which shredded crops in a swath 10 miles wide and 200 miles long across northern Iowa is being blamed for a deterioration of crop quality and potential toxic molds in corn. But Iowa State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh believes recent weather enhancing crop drydown will minimize the problems. But still:
1) Kernels bruised by hail will shrivel, be moldy, and pass out of the combine.
2) Undeveloped corn will have free sugars, and have test weights as low as 40 lbs.
3) Aflatoxin risk may have been averted, but feed corn should first be tested.
4) Stalk strength will be weak, and corn should be dried in small batches.
5) Expect discounts for moisture, damage, test weight, and foreign material.

· How should damaged corn be handled? Hurburgh says carefully dry and store it.
1) Do not mix any leftover 2008 corn with the less moisture stable 2009 crop.
2) Grain must be cooled when stored, then cyclically lower temperature to 30º's.
3) Remove bin center cores to eliminate trash, possibly twice in larger bins.
4) Move light corn to the market as soon as possible, and store heavier test weights.

· "Train" your yield monitor by calibrating it against a weigh wagon or commercial scale so it will provide a reliable record of your yield, particularly if it is connected to a GPS unit. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says the process reconciles the grain flow rate and the flow sensor signal strength to electronically estimate low, medium, and high yields. He says the owner's manual may only suggest one load, but more may be needed to fine tune the accuracy. That additional effort is the reason many monitors are not calibrated. More: www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/YldMonCalibr.html .

· Visitors at the Farm Progress Show saw one combine in a field demonstration leaving about 100 kernels of corn per square foot, but another combine leaving no grain on the ground. Proper setting of your combine will have a major impact on your revenue for the year. Iowa State ag engineer Mark Hanna has numerous recommendations about that. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0903hanna.htm
1) Scout your field to look for new erosion gullies and determine stalk strength.
2) Fields with wetter corn will have a delayed harvest, but weak stalks may change that.
3) A 1 bu. per acre loss equals 2-4 kernels per square ft. or 1 ear per 1/100^th acre.
4) Start with a low cylinder speed and raise it only to minimize threshing losses.
5) Start with wide concave clearance and reduce it to minimize threshing losses.

· Wheat planting is approaching and OH agronomists say 2009 seed is larger and more pounds of seed will have to be used per acre to get enough plants for a good stand. That is 1.2 to 1.6 million seeds per acre in 7.5 in. rows immediately following the fly-free date. If planting more than 2 weeks after the fly free date use 1.6 to 2.0 million seeds per acre.

· When wheat is planted on time, the seeding rate has little effect on yield, but if planting more than 30 seeds per foot of row, there is a tendency to increase lodging, and you are spending more money on seed than necessary. Plant at the drill's calibrated speed.

· Unexplained damage to ears of corn may be the result of flocks of birds says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, who says ears will have missing or damaged kernels and husks may be shredded, which can give rise to ear molds and rots, and potential mycotoxins. He says they are attracted to a field because of either the hybrid or the stage of maturity.

· Does purple or reddish corn have your curiosity aroused? Those are pigments associated with stresses in the plants that limit their ability to use the products of photosynthesis created during the day. The tendency toward the purple color varies with hybrids which may not have any genes or many genes that trigger the production of the pigment that will turn the plant reddish or purple. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says the color is not a problem, but is an indication of problems with ear size or kernel set.

· Cattle slaughter is down says Iowa St. economist Shane Ellis because of lower supplies and weaker demand. He says fewer cattle are being fed and the supply of cull cows is down. While beef cattle slaughter has been down, dairy cow slaughter has been up with little impact on the retail meat market because consumers are opting for hamburger.

· The reduced slaughter is due to more timely rain through cattle country say MO economists Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes. They say lower domestic and foreign demand contributed to the weak demand, and they add, "We are likely to see stronger fed cattle prices seasonally but stay below a year earlier. However, prices higher than a year earlier for fed cattle are expected this winter due to smaller production."

· If you sell cull cows, doing so immediately after weaning may not be the best time, says MO livestock specialist David Hoffman. He says cull cow prices are the lowest in the early fall and winter and highest in the late winter and early spring. He recommends adding some weight to them if you have high quality fall forage. He says carcass grade can improve on younger cows and that may mean a $5-8 premium per hundredweight.

· Hog slaughter has been consistent says Shane Ellis at Iowa State, who adds that is not good news for producers who need a break in hog prices. He says most price forecasters suggest the low prices will continue into the fourth quarter of the year with steady volume going to market. He says instead of cutting the breeding herd, the industry will need more demand or lower feed costs to return to profitability. Read more: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo090109.pdf

· The average loss per hog from Oct. 2007 through July 2009 is $16.98 for independent pork producers, say MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, who say that means a $3.6 billion loss for the pork industry, compared to $4.4 billion in 1998 and 1999. But they say the record will be set, because losses will continue for another 10-11 months.

· But Grimes and Plain say not every producer has lost that much. They say the average loss was $6.10 per head for the 9% of hogs sold using the packer marketing formula that is based on the futures market. And they say total losses have been reduced for the 13% of hogs sold with purchase agreement contracts tied to feed prices.

· While milk cow numbers are dropping, milk production per cow is increasing according to economist Robert Tigner of Nebraska. The dairy herd was 115,000 less in July of 2009 than in July of 2008, and 34,000 less than in June of 2009. However, milk production was up 0.1% or 34 mil. pounds, which shifted from low to high production.

It seems as though soybean aphid populations have exploded over the long weekend. Several growers have reported borderline populations late last week have grown astronomically over the last four days.

Here is a reference on soybean aphids from Mike Gray:

http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1218

Growth stages of soybeans are found at the Iowa State University site at:

http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soybean/production_growthstages.html

It seems we are just arriving at the R6 stage, or have reached it in the last week. This means data has not been consistent on benefits of control measures applied at this time. Check your fields, and make your best decision for you. Remember to keep days to harvest limitations in mind when deciding on a control program and product, since about three weeks is required between application and harvest for the shortest length products.

We've been concerned with soybean aphids for the past few weeks, and have written to producers about the importance of scouting fields. Just within the past week some fields have seen an explosion of aphid numbers. Dave Simpson and Bill Cassady have both reported aphid numbers exceeding 500 per plant on some plants in fields they've scouted.

The economic threshold is 250 per plant. The economic injury level is 700 or more per plant. The difference is to give you time to line up treatment options as populations can rise rapidly in a short time. However, some useful facts to pass on to you as you go about determining if treatment is necessary.

Our 250 treatment recommendation is based upon soybean maturity from R1 (beginning bloom) to R5.5 (when the bean in the pod is about ½ size at one of the 4 uppermost nodes). The data really doesn't support treatment on soybeans that are R6 or later (when the bean in the pod is full in one of the 4 uppermost nodes). You must also remember that as the bean matures, the nutritional value of the bean declines which adversely affects the aphids, causing lower reproduction, and populations will decline.

When scouting for aphids also take into account the number of aphid dwarfs. These are whitish colored and about ½ size of the aphid. As the nutritional level of the bean declines, these dwarfs are produced. They are not nearly as detrimental to the soybean as the aphid is. This usually signals a decline in the aphid population.

Several specialists have mentioned the fact that you don't necessarily pull the trigger once the 250 threshold has been reached. Rather you need to go back out to the field in 2 days and determine if populations are increasing or not. So, if the field average today is 250 (or more) and the beans are at R4, contact the custom application and let them know that you may need them to schedule you. Then 2 days later, reexamine the field. If the aphid numbers have increased then our recommendation would be to control them. But, if the numbers are the same or declining, then schedule another visit in 2 more days to scout. Aphid populations can and do crash in a matter of days. Especially with the heavy dews and fog we've been experiencing of late. Also make a note of predators (lady beetles, etc.). If you find 2 or more per plant, you can expect them to provide some benefit of control.

Lastly, since the beans are growing in ideal conditions, they can withstand more stress than normal.

If you do apply a control, strongly consider a check strip to determine how effective the application was. Also, you might be interested in a "speed scouting" method of scouting for aphids. This might increase your effectiveness when scouting. http://www.soybeans.umn.edu/crop/insects/aphid/aphid_sampling.htm

Note: Make sure you check populations of predators. The syphid fly numbers have exploded in the last two weeks, and in conjunction with other predators may provide at least partial control of the aphids.