· Despite a big 12.7 bil. bu. corn crop, demand is strong and both USDA and FAPRI are projecting a nearly 12.9 bil. bu. demand. MO marketing specialist Melvin Brees says carryover may well be 1.6 bil. bu., which is large, but he says not excessive, and with the large demand the ratio of ending stocks to usage will be below average. Read more at: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf

· There are positives and negative "ifs" which impact the grain market says Brees,
1) Corn use could be limited by increased DDGS feeding if ethanol refining increases.
2) USDA's corn export projections will be met, if world demand consumes its stocks.
3) Soybean exports should remain strong, if China's appetite for soybeans remains.

· Don't be mislead by USDA price estimates of $3.50 for corn and $9.40 for beans for the marketing year. Melvin Brees says those estimates include grain that had been forward contracted at higher price levels earlier in the year and they do not suggest that cash prices will return to higher levels. He says that is a corn/soy price ratio of 2.7 to 1 and current new crop futures are suggesting almost 3 to 1. Since the market indicates it wants more soybeans, South American farmers will respond to that message first.

· Store or sell? Brees says that decision may be depend, in part, on the ability of the crop to mature. He says if it matures without damage, then watch for market signals for storage. He says new crop corn is breakeven at best and March corn has a 13¢ premium over December, but that won't cover storage costs, unless the corn/soy ratio changes.

· The downside risk for soybean prices could increase says Melvin Brees. He says the November to March spread is 10¢ which offers no return to storage and if the US crop escapes the frost only to see production increases in South America, that downside risk will increase. He is not yet ruling out an improvement for post harvest basis gains. He's looking at selling beans at profitable prices and storing corn, if a decision has to be made.

· Soybean exports would be helped if China keeps buying says SD marketing specialist Alan May. He says USDA may have to increase its export projection if that happens, "The challenge for soybeans however, is that the projections for world production and supplies are higher for this coming marketing year and while demand for US soybeans remains strong, the balance of world supplies will determine where US exports settle."

· Most corn should have silked by now, which OH agronomists say means maturity is 7 to 8 weeks away, and with temperatures averaging 60º lows and 80º highs, that 20 GDD credit should get corn from the blister stage to maturity in 52 days, from the early dough stage to maturity in 39 days, from the early dent stage in 25 days, and full dent in 12 days. If temperature averages drop to 55º and 75º, then GDD accumulate at 15 per day.

· If your corn is in the early dent stage today it needs 510 Growing Degree Days to reach black layer and be safe from frost, despite potential 30%+ moisture. The potential for accumulating that many GDD's depends on your latitude. If you are north of the OH-MI border, your average frost date of Oct 10-20 will provide 538-622 more GDD's.

· If your corn is in the early dough stage today it needs 775 more GDD's to reach the black layer safety threshold. While you may not have that much heat remaining in the season, Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says late planted corn has the ability to adjust its maturity requirements and reach black layer 200-300 GDD earlier than expected.

· Do you have Blunt Ear Syndrome? It is also known as "beer can" ears, and makes corn ears about that size, but no one knows why. Purdue's Nielsen says he's leaning toward the effect of a cold shock during ear size determination that either injures the ear shoot or changes the hormonal balance within the developing ear shoot. If you find BES, fill out his questionnaire: http://www.zoomerang.com/Survey/?p=WEB22864Y5G52Y

· September temperatures should parallel the prior segments of the growing season in the mind of OH meteorologist Jim Noel. He says, "Temperatures should return toward normal or even slightly above this week and then resume the below normal tendency by this weekend into next week followed by normal the week of Sept. 6-12. Also, note that after a very cool weekend, indications are this coming weekend into early next week will be quite cool too with some lows in the 40s by early next week!"

· July had record cool temperatures, but what happened to yields in parallel crop years? That is what IA meteorologist Elwynn Taylor has been studying and he reports:
1) Seasonal heat accumulation trends in 1992, 2003 and 2004 through mid-August all experienced significantly colder weather than average, similar to the current season.
2) Crops have a yield advantage with early heat and late season cool temperatures.
3) In 1992 crops were immature when it frosted early and grain quality was an issue.
4) In 2004 Sept was dry with above average GDD and yields were highly variable.

· Elwynn Taylor says, "The delay in reaching silk and setting pods is an issue and although we are filling kernels and pods now, we are racing the season to get to maturity. Barring an early frost, things should be OK, but dry-down may be an issue as it was in 1992. The difference is that August 2009 has been more favorable for grain fill." Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/082409pope2.htm .

· The world's farmers will converge on the Farm Progress Show Sept. 1-3 at Decatur, IL. The all-weather Progress City site has been expanded to accommodate more companies with bigger exhibits. BASF and Bayer have exhibits for the first time, joining Monsanto and Dow which have substantial biotech layouts. Attend marketing seminars, get a free health check-up, and watch livestock and horse handling demonstrations. Yes, there will be harvest and tillage demos, since an early planted corn field is ready to combine. Find maps, ticket details, exhibitor lists and more at: http://www.farmprogressshow.com/

· Equity losses for pork producers may be exceeding those from 1998-99, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt, who says the current downturn is longer and more severe. Part of the reason is the slower reaction to cut the breeding herd, which has only dropped 3%, compared to 10% a decade ago. But why has the industry reacted slowly:
1) High feed prices are the current problem, and they have not declined as expected.
2) The export surge by China was a one-time event, and demand has diminished.
3) The current pork producers have not had to make such a large adjustment downward.
4) The industry has enjoyed profitability and built equity and decided to live off of it.

· Pork production will remain in the red this fall and winter with prices in the $40-42 range and production costs near $45. Chris Hurt says if prices rise to the upper $40 range next spring with costs just below that level, then profit opportunities may appear early in 2010. For the balance of next year, Hurt expects $2 to $5 profits per head.

· Regarding pork exports, they were 14% of production for Jan to June, compared to 17.8% for the same period last year. Most of the decline in pork exports is attributed to the H1N1 flu, falsely called "swine flu," says MO economist Glenn Grimes. During that time frame, imports from Canada were down 33% compared to year ago levels.

· Although meat prices are stronger they are not being passed onto the producer. Grimes and his colleague Ron Plain say processors and retailers are the only segment of the industry benefitting. For the first 7 months of the year the processor and retailer margin for beef was up 9.6% from 2008, and up 15.4% for pork processors and retailers.

· Lower commodity prices are holding down inflation in the grocery store says Purdue economist Corrine Alexander. She says 2010 food prices would increase 2.5% to 3.5%, not the 5.5% increase seen in 2008 when corn approached $8 and wheat was $13. She says restaurant prices rose 3.2% in July 2009 over 2008, much less than normal. Regarding meat, she says meat prices can't rise with domestic supplies so high.

· If alternatives are needed for 2010 credit sources, FSA has a variety of lending options for farmers who cannot obtain credit from commercial banks or the Farm Credit System. Details are at: http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu/~ohioagmanager/news/index.php#fsa .
1) Direct loans finance land & buildings up to $300,000, with 50% coming elsewhere.
2) Operating loans finance input purchases & living expenses up to $300,000,
3) Emergency loans help recover from disaster, restore property, and pay living costs.
4) Beginning farmers can get direct and guaranteed loans to start up an operation.
5) FSA loans will help socially disadvantaged farmers buy and operate family farms.
6) Youth loans of up to $5,000 help age's 10-20 finance income producing enterprises.

· Farm Storage Loans are also now available from FSA which will cover grain storage. The loan limits have been raised to $500,000 and the loan term has been extended from 7 to a 12 year payoff period. Funds will able be available for the construction stage.

· Were you able to cover your production costs for old crop wheat? USDA thinks 90% of farmers were able to, based on the $6.80 average marketing year price. A global wheat shortage and adverse weather bolstered the US wheat market. USDA says that 25% of producers had production costs of $3.20 per bu. or less, and 75% had production costs of $5.17 per bu. or less. Costs did not include labor and land, but read more: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Amberwaves/September09/Findings/RisingWheatPrices.htm

· What is your debt load per acre? You may never have figured it, but that is a tool used by South American farmers, who say the average Mato Grosso farmer has $50 per acre in debt servicing, on top of his $65 per acre production cost for soybeans. Because of the heavy debt cost, policy initiatives may be developed to reduce Brazilian interest rates.

· Soybean rust has been on the move in the early part of August, but remains in AR & MS as its most northern reaches. Confirmed infestations are only a few counties south of the major parts of the Midwestern soybean belt, meaning soybean growers should monitor the alert system: www.sbrusa.net . It will help make decisions on rescue treatments.

· More disease problems are showing up. MN plant pathologist Dean Malvick is warning soybean growers that yields may decline from Sudden Death Syndrome, Brown Stem Rot, downy mildew, and white mold. He says the weather is favoring those fungi and there is no effective treatment that can be applied at this time in the growing season.

· In NE the problem is grasshoppers which are decimating newly emerged wheat. Specialists are warning farmers to plant high risk fields as late as possible with the hope populations will decline after a frost. Seeding rates are also being recommended along field margins to compensate from a partial stand. Foliar insecticides are alternatives.

· Another NE problem is Goss's Wilt in corn, particularly in the western counties where high winds, hail, sandblasting, and other issues occurred to create tissue wounds that allowed bacteria to enter. Severe yield losses are associated with the disease. The problem cannot be controlled with foliar fungicides, but use resistant hybrids next year. Compare the symptoms with your own crop at: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/ .

· If you are concerned about soybeans being delayed and not maturing before a frost, agronomist Mike Staton is telling MI farmers that the vast majority of MI soybeans should mature before a killing frost. His rule of thumb is that for every 3 days of planting delay, physiological maturity is delayed by only one day. He says with shorter days, soybean plants are moving through reproductive stages more quickly than normal.

· Soybean aphid thresholds are causing OH entomologists to scratch their heads, if the aphids arrive in the late reproductive stage. They do not yet have a good handle on economic injury level, and say the 250 aphid per plant threshold earlier in the season is likely too low for late season infestations. They say monitor the population trends.

· Check your calendar and geography for the optimum date for seeding alfalfa, to ensure it has 6-8 weeks of growth before a killing frost, says IL crop specialist Jim Morrison. Cool-season perennial grasses can be seeded 1-2 weeks later. Warm-season perennial grasses should not be seeded until the spring. Review all of his recommendations at : http://www.livestocktrail.uiuc.edu/dairynet/paperDisplay.cfm?ContentID=10120 Morrison suggests you create a forage replay checklist which would include:
1) Ensure there is no residue carryover from previously applied herbicides.
2) Have perennial weed problems been adequately controlled?
3) Corrective limestone and fertilizer should have been applied.
4) No-till forage seedings can be successful, and plant at the spring seeding rate.
5) Use high quality seed and fresh Rhizobium innoculant.

After surveying some of the crop damage resulting from the tornado of August, 19, it is apparant there are four types of damage. Some plants are broken off, some have had ears broken, there is some hail damage in certain areas, and there is corn with partially attached roots laying flat in other areas.

The corn with some roots still in the ground should be given time to see what happens. Direct damage such as broken stalks or ears can be adjusted immediately. In many cases, many types of damage exist in the same field or area.

The other factor of concern is the amount of debris in some fields, and the potential equipment damage during the fall.

· "Big crops get bigger," is the likely mindset of the grain market with USDA's forecast of 12.761 bil. bu. of corn which is 4.6 bu. above the trend yield for 2009 corn, and IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says there is evidence that large yield forecasts in August are followed by larger forecasts in following months. Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/081709.html .

· However, the crop will be challenged with the severe hail damage in Iowa, dry weather in other growing areas, and the modest deterioration in crop conditions that peaked in late June at 72% good to excellent and have recently faded to 68% good to excellent. Based on those conditions, Good's team forecast is now at 158.2 bu. national yield. But he says crop estimates may still grow and will put pressure on harvest prices.

· USDA's forecast of 3.199 bil. bu. of soybeans is not considered large by Darrel Good, and is a half bushel below the trend line yield. He says August weather has not been perfect and his crop weather model points to a 44.1 bu. national yield. But he says while the crop is at more risk to late season weather, there is still an opportunity for larger yield and production forecasts, which would likely cause more price weakness into harvest.

· New crop corn carryover will be 12.6% of use, compared to the 14.3% for the old crop. Marketing specialist Jim Hilker at Mich. St. says he believes the futures market price average of $3.20 more than the USDA weighted price estimate of $3.50, unless the crop shrinks, the demand grows, and/or oil prices spike; with few marketing opportunities.

· If new crop soybean carryover is only 6.8% of use, why is the USDA average price at only $9.40? Jim Hilker says part of the reason is a projected 15% increase in the size of the world soybean crop, and projected world ending stocks of beans up 25% from last year. That is the result of larger crops in the US, Brazil, and also in Argentina.

· If you want to estimate your corn yields, there are some important rules to follow:
1) Count the number of harvestable ears in 1/1000 of an acre. (17.5 ft. for 30 in. rows)
2) On every 5^th ear, count the number of kernel rows per ear and determine the average.
3) On each of those, count the number of good kernels per row and average.
4) Yield equals ear # times ave. row # times ave. kernel #, then divide by 90.
5) Repeat the process at four sites across the field, and average the results.

· Any ACRE payments are 14 months away for the 2009 crops. But based on current price and yield trends, KS economist Art Barnaby has been estimating potential payments at: http://www.agmanager.info/crops/insurance/risk_mgt/rm_html09/AB_stACRErk.asp
1) Wheat: MO-$41.02, IL-$47.55, SD-$30.40, MI-$39.12, WI-$35.89, MN-$26.59,
IN-$33.12, OH-$18.73, ND-$1.83, KS-$0, NE-$0.
2) Corn: WI-$76.70, ND-$53.10, MI-$59.94, IL-$74.60, MN-$57.22, IN-$53.62,
MO-$41.75, KS Dry-$26.84, KS IR-$51.85, NE IR-$49.90, IA-$36.51, OH-$23.02
3) Soybeans: ND-$13.47, IN-$13.93, IL-$11.43, MI-$2.66, MN-$1.44, Others-$0
4) Sorghum: IL-$41.85, MO-$40.33, KS-$24.56, NE-$21.44, SD-$0.

· FAPRI has revised its price forecasts for commodities over the next few years as University of MO economists updated their 10 year economic baseline:
1) Recovery of meat and dairy prices depends on the economy and supply reduction.
2) Petroleum prices will be down with demand, taking down the demand for biofuels.
3) When the economy recovers, commodity demand and prices will rise with oil.
4) Oil prices are projected to average $61.31 in 2009/10 and $94 by 2015.
5) Omaha ethanol will climb from $1.65 in 2009 to $1.76 in 2011 and $2.09 in 2015.
6) Corn prices will average $3.47 this year and $3.98 by 2014.
7) Corn plantings will be 88.5 mil. acres in 2010 and 90.4 mil. acres in 2014.
8) Soybean plantings will be 77.9 mil. acres in 2010 and 78 mil. acres in 2014.
9) Soybean prices will be $9.44 in 2009, $9.12 in 2010, and $9.74 in 2014.
10) Fed cattle will be $85 in 2009, $93 in 2010, and $98 in 2011.
11) Feeder steers will be $103 in 2009, $115 in 2010, and $123 in 2011.
12) Hogs will average $57.59 in 2011, up from $42.82 in 2009.
13) The all-milk average of $12.47 in 2009 will be $16.37 by 2011.

· Economists at University of Missouri's Food and Ag Policy Research Institute have tried to quantify the impact of the Cap and Trade climate legislation on MO farms. Their preliminary study adds operating costs of $30,000 by 2050 on a 1,900 acre diversified farm, assuming fertilizer costs were exempted from rising until 2025.

· Cutting a half million sows from the breeding herd is not the answer to pork profitability says John Lawrence at Iowa State. He says the pork industry needs more demand, lower feed costs, or lower supplies to be profitable. He suggests there are some short term solutions that might be better than cutting sows to reduce the pork supply.
1) Remove the incentive for heavy carcasses and run packing plants more efficiently.
2) Finishers must be willing to sell at lower weights pursuant to market signals.
3) Cull pigs should not be passed on to the next level for inefficient feeding.
4) Adjusting carcass weights and slaughter numbers will be faster than culling sows.

· Pork profitability may key upon the relationship between fixed and feed costs. Iowa State's Lawrence says fixed costs are now smaller than feed costs, so increasing pigs or pounds out the door is not as important as reducing feed costs per pig. "Fewer, but more efficient, pigs in the barn will increase profits compared to more pigs at less efficiency."

· A red flag alert is being issued by MO agronomists about saving wheat seed to plant the 2010 crop. They are concerned about the extent of fusarium head blight or scab that was severe in some fields in 2009, and are finding germination rates at only 50% to 60%. They say if infected seed is planted, it will infect the stand of the new crop.

· You may have heard your state had record cold temperatures in July. That includes: IA, IL, IN, OH, PA, and WV. The entire eastern half of the nation was much below normal, except for FL, LA, & TX which were above normal and OK that was near normal. That comes from OSU meteorologist Jim Noel, who says expect an early September that has temperatures that are slightly below normal and rainfall that is at or below normal.

· Hail damaged corn will not only cut quantity, but quality as well, say IA plant pathologists Alison Robertson and Gary Munkvold, who fear a risk of mycotoxin contamination in hail damaged corn, particularly from fusarium and aspergillus fungi. They say ear rots may lead to toxins, but not always; however inspect fields before harvest and delivery of the corn to avoid surprising dock or complete rejection. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0818robertsonmunkvold.htm

· If aspergillus mold affects your corn, and aflatoxin is produced, it will be rejected at levels above 20 parts per billion due to FDA regulations. MO specialist Allen Wrather says the mold can grow quickly in the field and in storage if the corn is at 18-20% moisture. He says to cut the risk, dry corn to 15% within 24 hours of harvest.

· There will be fewer aflatoxin problems in Bt corn says Wrather, because they will be more resistant to ear worm damage in the kernel. He says Bt varieties do not resist ear worms, but there will be less feeding injury from ear worms.

· White mold remains an issue in soybeans, where a cool wet summer has been the perfect environment. Fungicides are not an option, and the damage you see began a month ago within the soybean plant. For future management, IA specialists say consider no-till if rotating soybeans with corn, or use Contan after harvest to control it for 2010. Planting seed that is tolerant to white mold is a prime recommendation from them.

· Ohio farmers are in a garden spot says OSU agronomist Jim Beuerline, due to good growing weather. Wheat yields averaged 71 bu., 1 bu. shy of the record. He says corn yields are estimated at 165 bu., which would break the record by 6 bu. One of the reasons is increasing final corn populations to over 30,000 on 34% of the acreage. And despite some white mold, soybean yields are expected at a record tying 47 bu.

· Ensure your calendar is marked for the Farm Progress Show on Sept. 1, 2, & 3 at Decatur, IL. The Show site is at Exit 144 on I-72 on the northeast corner of the city. Access to the all-weather site and ease of parking are unsurpassed.

· Cornbelt Update circulates in Brazil and Argentina, and a parallel newsletter published at: www.cropspotters.com this week carries several interesting articles, including:
1) Gov. Blairo Maggi says Mato Grosso can double food production without clearing land, but by switching pasture to cropland, since 8% is cropped and 25% is in pasture.
2) Brazilian biodiesel has increased its soy content from 3% to 4%, with production increasing from 322 mil. gal. in 2008 to nearly 500 mil. gal. in 2009.
3) Japanese investors are financing a 600 mi. ethanol pipeline from Brasilia to Sao Paulo.
4) Current prices: gas (25% ethanol) $5.37, ethanol $3.52, diesel (4% biodiesel) $4.12.

· One week is left before the 2009 sign-up deadline for ACRE, the Average Crop Revenue Election farm program. August 14 is the final day to enroll your farm, and signatures of operators and owners are all that is needed at this time. Your historical yield records data will be needed July 15 to qualify for any payments that might be earned from the 2009 crop. Find help at: http://www.farmgate.uiuc.edu/archive/2009/07/acre_if_you_nee.html

· 155 bu./A with the corn crop at 12.403 bil. bu. is the forecast of Michigan St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker when the August Crop Report is released August 12. He adds, "If the report varies much from expectations, you could see some significant price swings. If they shoot up, have some price targets in place, if they shoot down, I really hope you are signed up for the ACRE program." More: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm

· Hilker's soybean forecast calls for a below trend yield of 42.2 bu./A and a total crop of 3.234 bi. bu. And he says that could drop, "given how last year's late soybean crop did. But I also think we may find a few more soybean acres." And he adds, "My pricing suggestion are the same as with corn, have pricing targets in place if the report is price positive, and consider waiting to price if the report is price negative."

· The futures market has again offered $10 for Nov beans, and MN marketing specialist Ed Usset reminds soybean growers that this is the third chance to sell $10 soybeans from the 2009 crop. He says, "We greeted the new year with prices above $10 for nearly a week. We enjoyed a second rally above the $10 mark in mid-May, an opportunity that stuck around for nearly 6 weeks. And now this week – back above the $10 mark. I'm a baseball fan and I can't help but remind you that it's three strikes and you're out."

· The crop could expand says Iowa State's Chad Hart, "The outlook indicates more seasonal weather will return in the fall. Currently, corn production is projected at over 12 bil. bu. and soybean production is targeted at nearly 3.3 bil. bu. But conditions have been improving over the summer, with the crop ratings both for the US exceeding last year."

· Hart says most of the long range forecasts point to a continuation of the relatively mild summer conditions, and "Given the improving crop conditions, there is significant anticipation that USDA will increase their yield projections in the August reports." He says feed and ethanol demand is less than prior years, but export projections are high."

· Lower crop prices should spur a reversal in the weaker demand trend, according to Hart. He says the 25% decline in prices is providing buying opportunities for end users. While feed projections remain below 2008, the rate of decline has slowed for the livestock industry. And since the fall in ethanol prices has slowed, blending is more profitable. Hart adds that gasoline prices have climbed, but ethanol prices are stable. Read more: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo080109.pdf

· Fibonacci numbers help identify sell signals in Dec corn says Iowa St. ag economist Stephen Johnson. He says between the June 8 high of $4.73 and the July 20 low of $3.15 there are important retracement points at $3.75, $3.94, and $4.13. Read his marketing letter at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/polk/news/agmarketingstrategies.htm

· Johnson says, "These different levels serve as good indicators of where the December 2009 corn chart may find technical resistance. Placing sell orders, buying puts or forward pricing when the market reaches these levels can help with market discipline." He says the technical Fibonacci chart points can be used to show resistance and support levels.

· Watch the weekly crop conditions, says Iowa St. meteorologist Elwynn Taylor to see if current corn crop conditions total above 50% for the good and excellent categories. Currently, it is at 68% for the 18 primary corn states. He says if the number remains above 50% at the end of August, there is a consistent record of yields above trend line.

· Based on similar weather years Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen thinks the corn crop may be doing reasonably well at this point, although "the fat lady has not yet sung."
1) Late planting and uneven stands are not good, but the crop has escaped heat stress.
2) Moderate temperatures are favorable for kernel set and kernel weight development.
3) The crop needs to avoid drought stress into September and a frost into October.

· Regarding the killing frost potential, Nielsen says premature leaf death results in yield losses because photosynthesis stops, and while the plant may be able to shift some of its carbohydrates to the ears, yield potential will still be lost. If the stalk survives, frost at the dough stage will cut yield by 36%. Frost at the full dent stage will cut yield by 31%. And Nielsen says if frost occurs at the half milkline stage it will cut yield by 7%.

· Soybean yields depending on flowers, but IL agronomist Vince Davis says yields could go in two directions because of the weather. Davis' newsletter says he wants to be optimistic that yields will be good. http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1207
1) Early canopy closure (not this year) means a longer time for pod set and pod fill.
2) Cool July weather was less stressful and fewer flowers and pods were aborted.

· The days of waterhemp may be numbered due to a new genetic identification process at the University of Illinois which can help researchers determine which herbicides may be effective on populations in fields that are showing resistance. The evolution of waterhemp genes has been unusually rapid and weed scientist Pat Tranel says taking a weed's genetic fingerprints will help farm operators better control waterhemp.

· If weeds are growing above the soybean canopy it may be too late for a shower of glyphosate because of the lateness of the growth stage of the beans. Labels allow glyphosate to be used throughout flowering which is the R2 stage. But the R3, which is too late, begins when there is a 3/16 in. pod showing on the uppermost stem nodes.

· What is your weed attitude? Extension weed specialists around the Cornbelt surveyed farmers to determine if glyphosate resistance was becoming a problem on their farms.
1) Awareness of potential resistance ranged 75-88% depending on farm size.
2) No more than 30% believed glyphosate resistant weeds were a serious issue.
3) Less than 20% had experienced a resistance problem on their farm.
4) 43% -65% (depending on farm size) had taken action to minimize resistance.

· If you bought SCN resistant seed beans, check your soybean roots for performance. That is the recommendation of IA plant pathologist Greg Tylka, who says look for SCN females on the roots, which are small, white, and round, and about the size of the period at the end of this sentence. If you have numerous females, he says the SCN strain should be tested. Learn how: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2006/11-13/hgtest.html

· Your volunteer Bt corn from last year has a small amount of the Bt toxin, but just enough for your corn rootworms to potentially build up some resistance. That is the thought of Purdue entomologist Christian Krupke who says the volunteer Bt corn was emitting a sublethal dose, but had substantial root damage from corn rootworms.

· Some OH entomologists are about to pull the trigger on spraying for soybean aphids based on some fields in the northeastern part of the state having nearly 100% infestation. They say populations are not very high, but all plants have aphid colonies. And they say since aphid colonies can double in size rapidly, spray thresholds may soon be reached.

· Dry areas of Wisconsin are becoming stressed from spider mites, which may be near or at economic thresholds for soybeans. The WI Crop Manager newsletter tells farmers:
1) Drought stress pushes mites to soybean fields as alfalfa fields as they are being cut.
2) Drought stress improves the food quality of the soybean plant for spider mites.
3) Drought halts the pathogens that normally suppress spider mite populations.
4) Hot temperatures hasten mite reproduction faster than predators can keep up.

· It is rejuvenation time for pastures and forage crops says OH agronomist Mark Sulc who suggests a soil test to dictate lime and fertilizer needs, and a firm seedbed with shallow planting. He says seedlings need 6 to 8 weeks of growth after emergence to have sufficient vigor to survive the winter. But don't harvest any of it this year.

· Meat markets are not passing on the savings to consumers like auto dealers are promoting the clunker discount says Purdue economist Chris Hurt. He says finished cattle prices are down 10%, but retailers have charged higher prices in the past 6 months, and not until June were they reflecting the lower wholesale prices that began in 2008.

· Hurt says the cattle herd is slowly shrinking, and is down 4% over the past 3 years. And "help is on the way." http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/080309.html
1) Finished cattle prices rise toward late summer when the weather cools down.
2) Lower retail prices will encourage more consumption.
3) Slaughter rates will moderate with small supplies coming from feedlots this fall.
4) Competitive poultry and pork supplies will decline 3% in the last half of this year.
5) Domestic beef demand will increase as consumers sense a stronger economy.

· The worst may be over says Hurt, but profits may be elusive until next spring. He's looking for finished steers in the mid to high $80's in late summer. Hurt believes calf and feeder cattle prices will be higher also, but with feed price uncertainty.

· For 20 of the last 22 months, hog margins have been below breakeven prices according to calculations by Iowa St. economist John Lawrence. And the bad news is their projections are for 6 more months of red ink before variable costs will be covered and 3 additional months before breakeven prices will be reached. Read his newsletter at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo080109.pdf

· Lawrence says domestic and export demand can be boosted by organizational initiatives, but producers determine supply, and the only reason supply has dropped 1.5% this year is due to fewer hogs coming from Canada. He says sow slaughter rates have decreased and "US producers appear to be pushing on the accelerator rather than the brake." His newsletter strongly urges sow liquidation to avoid the loss of 50% more equity by 2010.

· To help pork producers improve profitability Iowa St. economists have created a decision making tool to track hog finishing gross margins, based on 2010 futures prices. Find it here: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/margins/

· What is the outlook for the livestock producer? Ag economists from across the country gathered last week to compare notes. Livestock economist Dillon Feuz of Utah State summed up the consensus, saying, "The reality is that the dairy industry, swine industry, and cattle feeding sector of the beef industry have lost a tremendous amount of equity in the last year. Domestic demand and export demand probably are going to remain week for much of this year and maybe most of 2010. Uncertainty is not likely to be reduced either. Therefore, all of the factors that got us in the present condition are still with us. Without some fairly significant reductions in supply (number of sows, number of milk cows, number and weight of fed steers) the losses will continue and equity will continue to dissipate. We may be reaching a time when many lenders will cease to finance these struggling operations and they will be forced to liquidate."

· Based on the latest estimates, MO economist Glenn Grimes says sow slaughter remains low and he sees no sign the breeding herd is being reduced very much. "It now looks like it will require bankruptcy by a substantial number of producers to get the sow herd reduced enough to get back in a profitable situation for the average cost producer."

· Cornbelt farmers are invited to IL Agronomy Day on August 13 from 7 am to 12 noon. Details are at: http://agronomyday.cropsci.illinois.edu/ Urbana, IL, field tours address:
1) Waterhemp, mechanical weed control, balancing P & K, spring N for wheat.
2) Sweet corn, soybean pathogens, tomato diseases, aerial fungicides for corn.
3) Switchgrass, biomass markets, biofuel crop pests, input price volatility.
4) Soybean aphids, corn nematodes, Japanese beetle injury, corn rootworm control.