With the wet, cool spring we've had in 2009, many are concerned about the effects of late planting. While there are averages we can look at, 2008 showed us what variability was all about. Mid-June planted corn and soybeans last year provided above trend-line yields in many cases, of course all bets were off if water continuously forced replants into July (and then some).

The tried and true data from the Illinois Agronomy Handbook shows corn planting optimum dates are from April 20 to May 4 (wishful thinking at this point). These dates give 99 to 100 percent of yield. Looking at later planting dates, May 9 gives 97% and May 14 gives 95%. We do start seeing a more aggressive drop-off after May 15 with a May 19 yield potential of 91% and May 29 of 81%. Of course, the next question is "of what?" Yield potentials have increased dramatically of the last several years. 90% yield with a potential of 150 bushel corn isn't going to excite too many people, but that same 90% potential of 250 to 300 bushel corn won't be too shabby.

Later planting does have some advantages. Remember this year the soil temperatures returned to the lower 40's in mid-April. Later planting should give us a more uniform stand with less seedling problems. Insecticide used will also be applied closer to rootworm hatch, unlike some years when very early planting put the insecticide out there two months in advance.

A recent article in the bulletin discussed more recent research on planting date and yield. Central Illinois really didn't see much difference between April 9 and May 9 in yield over the trial period. There was more of a penalty for late planting in Northern and Southern Illinois than Central. You can read the entire article at http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1079 .

Looking back on things, there just weren't many opportunities for early work. As for planting, it would have been really hard to justify putting $250 to $325 a bag seed corn out there in 42 degree soils. There is still plenty of time to put in a timely corn crop, and it certainly doesn't take as many days to put the crop in as it used to.

• If you have not noticed, USDA's adjustments in its soybean use projections will have an impact on the ACRE program. Michigan St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker says the cut in carryout stocks to 65 mil. bu. and USDA's raising of the average seasonal price to a $9.35 to $9.95 range were important, "This has ACRE implications, the higher the 2008-09 average weighted price, the higher the odds of ACRE paying off, other things equal." Read his latest newsletter at: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• Hilker's analysis of the soybean market includes the declining production in Argentina and Paraguay, leading to a world crop that is 165 mil. bu. smaller and fewer ending stocks. He says, "The disagreement between farmers and the government over several issue, such as an export tax and drought aid, has slowed the pace of exports." And Hilker says since Argentina has threefold the stocks held by the US, our exports could change, and he adds, "Keep an eye on old crop soybean prices as we go through harvest, i.e., consider being ready to sell on a further rally if you are still holding 2008 soybeans."
• "In spite of poor world economic conditions, the USDA projects increased world use of wheat, corn and other feed grains over previous years," says marketing specialist Melvin Brees at MO Extension. "The surprisingly strong demand along with reduced corn and wheat acreage intentions for 2009, dry conditions in the southern plains, the extent of freeze damage to wheat, planting delays for spring wheat, and wet Corn Belt conditions with possible planting delays make a case for higher price potential."
• "Managing risk is essential," says Brees, because high price is hard to define, and farmers should plan to capture profits, rather than hold out for higher prices. More: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf
  1) If the bean uptrend is broken, sell, or just below chart support at $9 Nov futures.
  2) If the bean trend holds, watch for new crop prices near the Jan. highs of $10.50.
  3) If Dec corn prices fall below support at $4, add to sales to protect a small margin.
  4) If Dec corn moves above $4.40, delay any sales and raise the sale stop levels.
• What marketing tools do you use? Brees says that is a hard question to answer:
  1) With a normal growing season, new crop cash contracts offer profit margins.
  2) Cash forward contracts will protect profits on crops sold at his suggested levels.
  3) Futures hedges would accomplish the same, if you can afford the margins.
  4) At-the-money options are expensive and would wipe out profit margins.
  5) Lower out-of-the-money options are cheaper, but would not protect price levels.
  6) Option spread strategies, such as fences and bear spreads, could be effective.
  7) Any futures or option strategy should only be used if you are aware of the risk.
• Ethanol plant closures continue, along with reductions in production. Iowa State's Roger McEowen reports 37 of the 193 US ethanol are out of business, 23 of them built since 2005. He says that represents 19% of the plants and 18% of production capacity, totaling 2.2 bil. gal. Read more at: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/ethanolupdate.html
• It may surprise you, but the stock market and the finished cattle market are nearly in lock-step with a 90% correlation, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt. That is because both are driven by the general economy and macro economic conditions that reflect weak demand. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/042009.html
• Chris Hurt says retail beef prices have not dropped along with producer prices, and that indicates producers are paying more, beef processing margins have increased, and retailer margins are even 13% more than they were early last year. He's expecting finished cattle prices in the mid-$80 for the second quarter and a couple dollars higher this summer.
• Cattle prices will increase over time, as the herd continues to shrink, exports improve, and the world economy grows. Purdue's Chris Hurt says while beef has suffered, it has the potential to have one of the most dramatic positive responses when normalcy returns.
• But the feeder cattle sector is expanding according to the latest USDA Cattle On Feed report. March fed cattle marketings were down 0.8% and placements were up 3.8%. But the April inventory was not down as much as it was in March, so Shane Ellis at Iowa State says the cattle feeding sector is rebuilding inventory. He says with moderating feed prices there are signs the fed cattle market may surpass $90/cwt, with higher futures.
• "As seed prices increase, return to seed decreases. The best net returns occur with plant populations between 30,000 and 35,000 ppa," say Iowa State agronomists. They note that not every seed germinates and 4-7% will fail to survive, so increasing seeding rates by 5% will ensure that proper plant population is achieved, but will sometimes vary. They say maximum grain yields occur between 34,500 and 37,000 per acre. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0423elmoreabendroth.htm .
• Emerging corn greeted with cold rain, melting snow, freezing rain, and any form of cold precipitation could show "imbibitional chilling injury," say OSU agronomists. They said that was the case in 2005, but 2009 has been mild in comparison, and your corn is OK.
• To assess potential freeze damage, check corn plants 5 days after freezing temperatures, if warmer temperatures have occurred. Look for new leaf tissue in the whorl, or look for the growing point just below the soil surface. If it is white, the prognosis is good.
• If corn is germinating in cold, wet soil that is a prescription for seedling blights. Under normal conditions plants may continue to grow, but when other injuries occur, new roots cannot develop, and pythium or other fungi can kill corn seedlings that are stressed. Seed treatment and fungicide efficacy can be shortened, if saturated soil conditions persist.
• In the sweep net, Extension bug folks are finding quite a few critters to watch:
  1) There have been enough degree-days for alfalfa weevil in Cen. IL & IN, & So. IA.
  2) Black cutworms will soon be feeding on weeds, awaiting corn seedlings.
  3) Several varieties of aphids are in wheat, many of which transmit BYD disease.
  4) Legions of armyworm moths are being found in KY & MO laying eggs, especially in thick stands of wheat, so prepare rescue treatments for thick stands before thin stands.
• On the issue of alfalfa weevil, entomologists in the 3-I states are discussing them in their weekly newsletters. IN Extension specialists suggest scout fields in an M-shaped pattern, examining 10 stems in each of five areas of the field. Check the stems for problems:
  1) Evidence of tip feeding by alfalfa weevil larvae; such as pinholes.
  2) Maturity of the stem, i.e. pre-bud, bud and/or flowers;
  3) Stem length and the average size of the weevil larvae.
  4) Early season weevil problems can be treated with an insecticide with residual action.
  5) Late season weevil problems should be addressed with short residual insecticides.
• Ohio soybean growers are being warned about a potential aphid onslaught, based on 2008 collections of aphids in traps. OSU entomologists put an asterisk on the warning and said they did not find any colonies or eggs on the few buckthorn plants sampled.
• Pay attention to what you are applying in the sprayer. Long days mean errors, and IL Extension's Aaron Hager says some chemicals with similar names have very dissimilar formulations. He used the example of Balance Pro, which must be applied before corn emergence, and Balance Flexx, is applied after emergence. Consult his list of potential confusion chemicals at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1095 .
• Safety is first and last, says IA Extension's Mark Hanna, even though wet, cold weather has delayed field work. He says if you feel rushed, you need to still beware of dangers:
  1) Mechanically lock or block your planter or tillage equipment before getting under it.
  2) Leather gloves prevent cuts and rubber gloves prevent chemical flesh burns.
  3) Avoid planting fast to allow seed metering, depth control, and furrow closers to work.
  4) While applying ammonia, use rubber gloves, unvented goggles, and water bottle.
• Increases in soil compaction are being reported as farm and construction machinery get heavier. WI Extension's Dick Wolkowski says that pressure impacts bulk density, porosity, aggregation, and drainage, but affects different soils in different ways. He says compaction creates a denser, less porous soil, slowing down gas exchange and keeping oxygen away from root systems. He says saturation only worsens the problem.
• How do you address compacted soil? Wisconsin's Wolkowski ways one suggestion is deep tillage, using a subsoiler with an L-shaped leg to lift the soil. He says the soil will loosened, but will not be restored to the point of having root and earthworm holes. The best advice is to avoid compaction in the first place, and stay off the soil or on one track. He says MN researchers have found compaction remaining from 1880's covered wagons.
• Deep patches of cornstalks may indicate the need for some soil conservation repair in the eyes of IL Extension's John Church. He says waterways have deep gullies next to them, preventing water from entering the grassed area, and that is only going to worsen. He says check "small breaks in the sod, dead sod, small water channels, tillage damage to edges, flow restrictions, and other problems that could cause a waterway failure."
• With the soil full of moisture, warm temperatures will boost pasture growth, possibly ahead of livestock being able to keep it clipped and prevent seed head formation. MO forage specialist Rob Kallenbach says once a plant sets seeds, it stops growing leaves, and the secret to pasture management is to keep the forage in the vegetative stage. He says divide pastures into paddocks, and use some for hay harvest if you get behind.
• Sudden Death Syndrome was prevalent in 2007 and rotated fields will be back in soybean production again this year. IA Extension's X. B. Yang says soybean seedlings acquire SDS infection at the point of germination, and if the soil is cold and wet, they will be there longer and more likely to contact the SDS pathogens. Yang recommends later planting and says soybeans planted after May 15 rarely exhibit SDS symptoms.
• Although it has caused insignificant damage, the "book" on soybean rust has yet to be written says KY Extension's Don Hershman, and it "could be a big mistake" for farmers to believe that it will never be a serious problem. He says 20 years from now it might have been seen as "a flash in the pan," but could also be seen as something that was a significant production factor a time or two during that 20-year period.
• Soybean rust has successfully overwintered in Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana for the first time since its arrival on US soil, says Don Hershman at the University of Kentucky. He says it can be found on low levels on kudzu, within warm, moist conditions it likes. He says the determining factor will be the weather conditions over the next two months. To keep apprised of soybean rust, watch the official website: www.sbrusa.net .
• With 10 years in the rear view mirror, Extension Update begins a new volume with this weekly edition. 520 consecutive issues have been produced and sent to farmers for the past 10 years, without skipping a Friday. This publication began with the intent of providing positive news about agriculture, help with marketing, and tips on managing all of the risks faced in production agriculture today. Initial issues were printed on gold colored paper and mailed to elevator offices, coffee shops and other locations in Macon County, IL. At that time it was entitled, Extension Update on Macon Co. agriculture.
• Extension offices in neighboring counties wanted to use it for their newsletter, so the name was changed to Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture, and the mailing list expanded. Some folks wanted it e-mailed, and that was not only less expensive, but the distribution increased exponentially, as it was forwarded, forwarded, and forwarded.
• With recipients scattered across the Cornbelt, the name was changed once again and paper copies were no longer mailed. Its content was posted each Friday on the farm gate blog, along with a myriad of other farm websites. Some newspapers began publishing it as a weekly agriculture column, and subscription requests arrived from South America.
• Although there are only about 250 e-mail subscribers, it is impossible to know how many others see it. It is known that one recipient sends it to about 750 others, and one of those forwards it to another 800+. Although Extension does not publish this newsletter, the information primarily originates from trusted Extension sources. If it has either saved you money or made you money, it is worth the late night effort! Thanks for reading it.

The West Central Region has designated April 19-25 as Extension Week. Logan County has had Extension since February of 1918. It began with a Farm Advisor named Elmer Ebersol who began selling the county memberships in the combined Extension and Farm Bureau system that remained in place until the 1950's.

Early projects included establishment of the county Pure Bred Live Stock Breeders' Association, Pure Bred Beef Cattle Breeders' Association, Pure Bred Dairy Cattle Breeders' Association, and the Pure Bred Swine Breeders' Association. Soybeans were a new crop at that time, and their planting was being encouraged. Of course, soybeans were used mainly for hay in their early years. Spring wheat was the predominant wheat crop of the time, and there were several thousand acres of oats. Farm labor was a major concern of the time, and labor placements were a major focus of Extension. The first soil survey of the county was also begun.

The 4-H Program began about 1920 with the first 4-H Clubs focusing on specific projects of swine and corn. Later in 1923 there began a push for home economics based clubs, and the push was on to identify volunteer leaders. Home Economics was added a few years later with the first "Home Advisor." Focuses were on running a household and home food preservation.

Logan County added an aggressive Community Resource Development program in the late 1970's. This program was responsible for many of the community wide surveys done in the early 80's, and these surveys even led to removal of the city of Lincoln parking meters around the square and municipal parking lots.

Extension continues to evolve as needs of residents change. Horticulture programming became more prevalent in the 1980s, non-traditional youth programs such as school enrichment and special interest clubs began in the 1980's, and the Family Nutrition Program started in the 1990's. Web pages began to be a communication medium in 2003, and today there is an average of about 15,000 hits per month on county web pages.

Extension Week helps us remember where we have been, and to focus on being of value to local citizens. Extension has always been blessed with many exceptional volunteers, and today is no exception. There are over 100 volunteer leaders in the 4-H program, and many others serving on committees and councils for various programs. If you are interested in volunteering, please feel free to contact the office at any time.

· Will rationing be required? That is the question rhetorically asked by IL Extension's Darrel Good in his latest newsletter. "Prospects for small year-ending stocks of soybeans and declining inventories of corn during the 2009-10 marketing year means that a generally favorable 2009 growing season will be needed to avoid rationing of use next year." Read it at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/041309.html

· Darrel Good says, "For both corn and soybeans, the timing and extent of US and world economic recovery will be important in determining the strength of demand and the level of consumption." And he adds, "With so much riding on the size of the 2009 crops, prices could well trade in a wide range over the next few months."

• If you feel financially nervous, IL Extension's Nick Paulson knows why. He says farmers have twice as much money at risk due to higher volatility in the market:
  1) The ag economy faces a different set of challenges than the national economy.
  2) The national economic challenge is the availability or lack of credit.
  3) The ag economy is challenged by higher production costs and commodity prices.
  4) Government programs that once were a safety net are undermined by market volatility.
  5) Farm programs no longer guarantee breakeven prices, or anything close to breakeven.
  6) It will become increasingly important to lock in input costs when they are favorable.
  7) With price volatility, it is crucial to control any possible cost of production.
• It may be too late for this year, but fertilizer prices have fallen says NE Extension's Gary Hergert. His data is in the NE Cropwatch newsletter. http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
  1) Natural gas is cheaper and Yara, Mosaic, and Agrium have restarted ammonia plants.
  2) World market urea and f.o.b. Gulf prices are now down to $310 per ton.
  3) Anhydrous ammonia prices f.o.b. Cornbelt are currently around $550 per ton.
  4) International tenders for 32-0-0 (UAN) are under $200 per ton.
  5) DAP and MAP has fallen from $1,000 highs to nearly $200 per ton f.o.b. Florida.
• You are applying ammonia based on a return to nitrogen, how about basing your corn population on a return to seed? That is the suggestion of IL Extension's Mike Roegge who says using a seed cost of $2 per thousand or $160 per 80,000 kernel unit, the economic advantage is at 35,000 population when the price of corn is $4 per bu. He says if the seed is $3 per thousand or $240 per bag, the advantage goes to 30,000 population.
• If you did not apply P & K last fall because you ran out of time and weather, should you do it now? IL Extension's Fabian Fernandez says a soil test will be a critical tool in making a decision. He says if the field needs it, but the budget is not there, apply at least a portion instead of none. As an alternative, apply nutrients as a form of starter fertilizer.
• Storm fronts blow through, and they drop out of the sky. Not raindrops, but black cutworm moths, ready to lay eggs on winter annuals. IL Extension entomologists say the eggs will hatch when the growing degree days reach 300 with a base temperature of 50. That means mid-May is the primary scouting time for the central part of the Cornbelt.
• Corn and soybeans are among the black cutworm's least favorite foods, say Purdue entomologists, who add, "It just so happens that these are the only plants remaining by the time larvae have emerged and weeds have been killed. Research has shown that cutworm larvae starve if weeds are treated with tillage or herbicide 2-3 weeks before crop emergence – an example of a case when controlling weeds can help manage insect pests."
• Farmer minds are being changed about weed control, as the result of increased weed resistance to glyphosate. Aaron Hager's IL Extension survey found only 28% of farmers were using only glyphosate for soybeans, compared to 80% during the early days of Roundup Ready beans. Additionally 91% of 877 farmers surveyed believe that weeds becoming glyphosate resistant will change weed management in the next 5 years.
• "Mudding in" a crop early to avoid planting late will almost always end up being an unwise decision, says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, and so he says don't succumb to fear mongering of delayed planting. (He says you have the machinery to catch up.) Nielsen says planting date is one of many "yield influencing factors" (YIF), and he adds, "It is possible for early-planted corn in one year to yield more than, less than, or equal to later-planted corn in another year depending on the exact mix of YIFs for each year."
• Test question: Are compacted soils better resolved with deep tillage or no-till? Ohio Extension's Randall Reeder says yields will recover better in compacted soils with continuous no-till than deep tillage. Compacted with a 600 bu. grain cart, Reeder said soils had a 15% corn yield reduction when sub-soiled annually for 6 years, versus only a 9% reduction with no-till. For soybeans, the declines were 24% and 13%, respectively.
• If seed beans are still on your shopping list, consult the variety testing results conducted by Extension agronomists in your state. The IL specialists report the beans in maturity group 2 had a 33.3 bu. yield span and group 3 had a 27.7 bu. yield span. Agronomist Vince Davis says a few good hours selecting seed is time well spent.
• To treat, or not to treat, that is the question about soybean fungicides, and Iowa State Extension's X. B. Yang says only 3% of seed was treated 10 years ago, but 50% of it is today, and the driving forces may be the cost of soybean seed and early spring planting. He says treatments can be beneficial in fields where there is an increased risk of soybean seedling diseases, particularly for Ohio soybean growers preventing phytophthora.
• To make a decision on soybean fungicide, Iowa State's X. B. Yang says do it when:
  1) Seed quality is poor like last year, but this year soybean seed quality is much better.
  2) Fields have phythphthora or pythium, the spring is wet and cool, & planting is early.
  3) Replanting is one case where fungicide treatments are recommended for a good stand.
  4) Early planting is not a reason for treatment, unless planting conditions are poor.
• In addition to those recommendations, MO Extension's Laura Sweets, says use a fungicide treatment if you have a concern the seed is infested with a seed-borne disease, or if the variety being planted is a high yielding variety that is disease-susceptible.
• Stewart's Wilt is caused by a bacteria carried by flea beetles, and can cause havoc in sweet corn fields, while many commercial hybrids carry resistance. The determinant of whether it will be a problem is if temperatures and snow cover allowed the flea beetles to survive. In parts of the Midwest winter temperatures averaged less than 24 degrees, and that indicates reduced survival and fewer problems with Stewart's Wilt. If your winter was warmer, Gaucho and Cruiser have reduced the problem 50% to 85% in sweetcorn.
• Do lower rates of pelletized lime equal higher rates of ag lime? Ohio Extension specialists say the comparison is total neutralizing power, fineness, and moisture, and they add, "Just because you needed twice as much ag-lime as pelletized lime does not necessarily make pelletized lime the best choice based on cost, especially when pelletized lime can cost 5-7 times more per ton than ag lime. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#A

· Farmers across the northern Cornbelt should be close to planting oats, if they have not already. IL Extension's Jim Morrison says his colleagues in Iowa report yield drops of 10% per week after April 15, and his colleagues in Wisconsin say yields drop nearly 20% by May 14. IL Extension specialists encourage a fungicide seed treatment for oats.

• For oat drilling, seed 2-3 bu. per acre or 30 seeds per square foot. For broadcasting oats, increase the rate by 1/2 to 1 bu. per acre. If the oats are planted with alfalfa, seed only 1 to 1.5 bu. per acre. Your fertility program depends upon your yield, and Morrison says oats remove about .38 lbs. of phosphate per bu. and.20 lbs. of potash per bu.
• If you farm in Ohio, there is a 55% chance you are using at least one piece of precision farming equipment. OSU economist Marvin Batte says adoption rates have increased 27% since 1999, but adoption depends on farm size, sales, and types of crops produced. Lime and phosphorous variable rate application netted the greatest benefits.
• Pork producers: Are you really reducing the breeding herd? MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain say gilt slaughter has been running high, but sow slaughter is 12% less than this time in 2008. They report that breeding stock from Canada is down 16.5% from last year, probably due to the Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) law. All in all, they do not believe the breeding herd is changing very much, if any.
• Regarding the beef market, Grimes and Plain report, "…a slowdown in the reduction of the dairy herd, which is a result of milk prices substantially less than cost of production. Why the slowdown is occurring is not clear. The beef cow slaughter indicates beef producers have slowed the decline in the herd if not stopped it. Additional reductions in both the dairy and beef industries are required to get prices at profitable levels."

Is there a benefit to planting treated (insecticide and/or fungicide) soybean seed? I'm not sure there is a correct answer, but rather it depends upon several factors. If these protectants do their job, then you could conceivably reduce your planted population, which may or may not save you some money, depending upon the cost of the treatment compared to the cost savings of a reduced population.

There are really two types of fungicides you can select from. One protects against the "water molds", such as pythium and phytophthora. The other protects against rhizoctonia and fusarium seedling diseases. One thing to remember is that these seed treatments are not intended to provide season long protection. They will safeguard the seeds for 2 weeks or so. Metalaxyl will provide help against the water molds. Other products, such as fludioxonil, trifloxystrobin, pyraclostrobin can help against the others.

Which products should you use? Again, it depends upon the situation. The water molds are only found in moist soil conditions. Pythium is favored by cooler soil temperatures while phytophthora is found in warmer soils. Rhizoctonia and fusarium are opportunistic diseases. Which means they infect the plant when it's under stress. This could be from poor growing conditions or herbicide/insect injury or some other concern. Conditions such as early planting, planting into fields that have had incidence of disease in the past, or using poor quality seed may favor the use of a treatment.

Another point to consider is that you can't sell treated seed into the commodity market. Our advice for many years is that if you're going to use treated seed, use that seed first. After all, the first planted fields are more than likely the best candidates. Since it's more likely they will be cooler and wetter than those planted later.

Will insecticide treated seed be of benefit? When insecticide treated seed first became available, soybean aphid was beginning to make itself known. And for those growers who have early season soybean aphid pressure, then the answer is yes. But those areas are primarily in the northern soybean growing regions of the U.S. The soybean aphid does not overwinter here locally. So even though the insecticide treatment is systemic, it won't last season long. The other early season insect that could cause problems is the bean leaf beetle. However, I've only seen a handful of fields that have ever needed protection from early season bean leaf beetle populations.

The best advice on the use of treated seed would be to run some comparisons. Have some treated versus untreated and run them side by side. And better yet, do several side by sides in the same field. Don't compare field to field. The U of I has conducted fungicide treatment studies since 2001. Their results indicated a 0.8 bushel overall response. The response was greater the earlier the beans were planted.

• Farm Program sign-up dates have been reset by USDA. Farmers wanting to participate in the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program will be able to sign up as early as April 27, but no later than August 14. Participants forego 20% of direct and counter-cyclical payments and 30% of marketing loan benefits. Once a producer signs CCC-509 to enter the ACRE program, that is an irrevocable decision through crop year 2012.
• Even though ACRE sign-up begins on April 27, Michigan State marketing specialist Jim Hilker says wait until the deadline to turn in your paperwork. He says fill out all of the necessary documents over the summer, but don't sign it and turn it in until August 14. Read his rationale at his newsletter: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
  1) You will know the 2008-2009 average crop price within pennies.
  2) The August Crop Report on Aug. 12 will give a good idea of the US crop situation.
  3) You will know the likely 2009-2010 US prices and your state yield outlook.
• USDA's Supply-Demand Report bolstered interest in soybeans by reducing projections for the Argentine crop, raising US export forecasts, and lowering the old crop carryover 20 mil. bu. to 165 mil. Additionally, world ending-stocks were reduced from nearly 50 mmt to under 46 mmt. The average seasonal price was adjusted upward to $9.25-$10.05.
• Corn usage projections were also moved upward by USDA on Thursday, with 50 mil. more bushels being fed, and a 40 mil. bu. cut in the carryover, which is now at 1.700 bil. An increase in world corn trade was also forecast which is expected to reduce the world corn ending-stocks. The average price range was raised 10 cents to $4.00 to $4.40. Find the full report at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf .
• The pork market has pluses and minuses says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt, who says hog prices should exceed costs in the second and third quarters of the year before turning downward next winter and spring. Hurt suggests that the pork industry continue to make cuts in the breeding herd to help the supply meet the demand. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/040609.html .
• The pluses in the pork market will help push market prices into the low $50 range.
  1) Hog prices should soon increase into their typical seasonal patterns.
  2) The breeding herd and farrowing numbers are smaller than had been expected.
  3) Canadian export hogs will drop by 2.3 mil. due to high production costs in Canada.
• The minuses in the pork market will push production costs toward $49 by summer.
  1) Reduced plantings and grain stocks will result in high prices for corn and bean meal.
  2) Pork exports will drop 14% or 700 mil. lbs. compared to 2008, with Chinese cutbacks.
• Nitrogen application #1. Nitrogen prices have been fluctuating, and prices may be substantially different from one supplier to another. Based on the price per pound you pay for nitrogen and what you have forward contracted the corn to sell for, use the N rate calculator at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx . The nitrogen rate calculator will accommodate producers in IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, & WI.
• Nitrogen application #2. IL Extension specialists caution against applying ammonia under the row shortly before planting as well as applying an N solution close to germinating seeds. If applied in strip till, seedlings can be burned if the soil dries out. They recommend use of GPS or assisted steering to apply N between the rows.
• Nitrogen application #3. The most efficient application is when the corn plant is ready to use the nitrogen, which decreases loss. The Extension specialists say, "Claims that some forms of N are "more available" than others, or that the plants "prefer" some forms, are often shaky." More: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1080 .
• If you want uniform corn emergence, OSU Extension provides tips on corn planters:
  1. Keep the planting speed within the range specified in the planter's manual.
  2. Match the seed grade with the planter plate.
  3. Check planters with finger pickups for wear on the back plate and brush.
  4. Check for wear on double-disc openers and seed tubes.
  5. Make sure the sprocket settings on the planter transmission are correct.
  6. Check for worn chains, stiff chain links, and improper tire pressure.
  7. Make sure seed drop tubes are clean and clear of any obstructions.
  8. Clean seed tube sensors if a planter monitor is being used.
  9. Make sure coulters and disc openers are aligned.
  10. Match the air pressure to the weight of the seed being planted.
  11. Follow lubricant recommendations when using seed-applied insecticides
• 82% of IL Bt corn was planted in 2008 with a refuge, according to an Extension survey of producers. But entomologists say that means 18% was not, and they are concerned that thousands of corn acres without a refuge will hasten insect resistance, not only to Bt toxins, but also to the accompanying seed treatments for many secondary insects.
• Spring weather has not been bad, but less than ideal for corn planting, says Extension's Emerson Nafziger. However, he says March corn may have suffered from freezing, light snow, and may not have enough reserves to survive. That means potential replanting. Looking at optimum planting dates from 2005-2008, maximum yields resulted from April 9 corn planting in northern and southern IL, and April 19 in central IL.
• What about delayed planting? Nafziger says, "Delays in planting until past the end of April, though they cost some yield, do not automatically mean large yield losses. Planting even two or three weeks after the optimum date might well produce higher yields than planting into cool, wet, compacted soils closer to, or before, the optimum date." Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1079 .
• Rosettes at this time of year are not state fair ribbons but horseweeds (marestail) popping up in no-till fields, and IA Extension's Bob Hartzler says the best time to control them and other winter annuals is as soon as you can get into the field. The more mature they are the more expensive they are to control, and may go to seed before a burndown.
• Hartzler says adding a residual herbicide with a burndown treatment should give a clean seedbed, and may free you up from having to apply a herbicide at planting. He adds, "It is unrealistic under most situations to expect a pre-emergence herbicide applied several weeks prior to planting to provide full-season control. However, if properly selected for the weeds present in the field, the early application should allow the post-emergence application to be delayed long enough to require only a single post application."
• A timely application of an herbicide to wheat includes weather, according to IL weed specialist Aaron Hager, "Applications made to actively growing weeds and during periods of warm air temperatures generally provide more effective and complete weed control as compared with applications made during cold, cloudy conditions."
• Hager also warns against automatically applying an herbicide with liquid nitrogen. He says read the label, because, "Not all herbicides allow applications with liquid nitrogen as the carrier, and those that do might have specific recommendations with respect to including or excluding other spray additives or their application rates." Hager provides an application rate chart at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1074 .
• A fungicide treatment comes already applied to RR2Yield varieties from Monsanto, but what about its use on other varieties. IL Extension's Carl Bradley recommends it for poor quality soybean seed to improve the stand uniformity, but not improve germination. He also says it provides brief protection from pythium, phytophthora, rhizoctonia, and fusarium, particularly if the beans are planted in April or early May or in cool, wet soil.
• Soybean producers will want to vote during May on whether or not the Secretary of Agriculture should conduct a referendum on the soybean check-off program. Cast ballots at FSA offices between May 4 and May 29. Ballots can also mailed or faxed or obtained via the Internet at: http://www.ams.usda.gov/lsmarketingprograms . A referendum will be held if 10% of the 589,182 US soybean producers vote yes during May balloting.
• "Surprisingly as it may be," MO livestock economists say their beef demand index for Dec-Feb was up 3.4% from a year earlier. "We do not have the data to accurately separate beef demand for steaks and roasts from hamburger. We believe the strong demand is for hamburger. Cull-cow slaughter was up as well as imported beef for January. Most of the weakness in beef demand is at the white-tablecloth restaurants."
• Mark your calendar for the National Small Farms Conference, Sept. 15-17 in Springfield, IL. Topics include USDA assistance to small farms, alternative enterprises, building community support, sustainable farming systems, business management, energy. http://www.conferences.uiuc.edu/conferences/conferenceviewer2/view.cfm?conf=20033

Work recently completed at the U of I Orr Research Center, in Perry (and replicated across the state at the other 5 research farms) investigated the optimal corn planting date and population. This work was conducted to update previous research that was somewhat dated. Other Midwestern Universities research supports this data as well.

Producers have steadily increased corn populations over the years as hybrids have improved in their ability to stand. With this, corn yields have increased as well. Most agronomists would agree that 30K plants (or more) per acre is the optimum population. But at some point, determining the correct population becomes a calculation based upon the price of the seed and the price received for the crop.

Generally speaking, for those higher producing soils, under optimal growing conditions, the closer the final stand is to 35K, the better the results. And for those lower producing soils, populations between 25-30K would be recommended. However, to truly compare economic populations, you must also look at seed cost and the selling price of corn.

Using a seed cost of $2 per thousand ($160 per 80K seeds) and a $4 corn selling price, for those high producing soils, there is an economic advantage for corn population of 35K at harvest (6 bushel yield increase). However, as the seed cost increased, the advantage is reduced. At a seed cost of $2.50 per thousand ($200 per 80K) there is virtually no difference in return between the populations. And as seed cost continues to rise to $3 per thousand ($240 per 80K), the advantage goes to the 30K final population.

Data from the date of planting portion of that study indicate that for central IL, there was only 3 bushels of yield difference between the planting dates of April 1- May 10. With the period of April 11-30 averaging 174 bu/acre, and 10 days earlier or 10 days later averaging 171 bu/acre. This data was generated from 2 sites (Champaign and Perry) over 4 years.

• The Prospective Plantings Report was the headline this week, indicating 7.8 mil. fewer crop acres would be planted this year. The largest cutback was a 4.5 mil. acre drop in wheat, 75% of that in winter wheat. Other reductions were nearly 660,000 fewer cotton acres, nearly 450,000 fewer sunflower acres, and a 1.3 mil. acre cut in sorghum.
• USDA projected corn acreage at 84.986 mil. which is about 1 mil. acres less than last year, with the bulk of the cutback in marginal corn ground on the fringe of the Cornbelt. IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says that will mean 77.786 mil. harvested acres, and with a 152.8 bu. trend yield, 2009 corn production should reach 11.862 bil. bu. He says that will sharply reduce stocks because ethanol production and exports should increase.
• USDA projected soybean acreage at 76.024 mil. acres, which is 306,000 more acres than 2008, and points to 75 mil. harvested acres. Paired with a 41.6 bu. trend yield, the 2009 soybean production should be 3.12 bil. bu., up 160 mil. bu. from last year. Read Good's analysis: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/033109.html .
• USDA also released the Quarterly Stocks report, which projected corn stocks at 6.958 bil. bu. Good says exports for the quarter were off 262 mil. bu., domestic use dropped only 31 mil. bu., since ethanol use was larger, and feed use of corn was down slightly. Soybean stocks were 1.302 bil., with crush down 47 mil., and exports up 50 mil. bu.
• On-farm stocks of corn climbed 8% compared to last year and off-farm stocks dropped 7% observes IA St. marketing specialist Chad Hart. He said farmers are also holding more soybean stocks which are up 11% compared to year ago levels, and off-farm bean stocks are down 23% versus 2008. On-farm wheat stocks are up 205% from 2008.
• Corn and bean acres have been on the increase in recent years, says IA Extension's Hart, "In fact, the amount of "other" crop acreage, not including corn, soybeans, wheat, and hay, has dropped from 50 million acres in 2002 to less than 40 million acres projected for 2009. Much of that decline has hit the cotton industry. So while the overall crop base has been in decline, corn and soybean area has been able to increase."
• The large cut in crop acres was attributed by Hart to result from higher input costs, "Some can be attributed to weather events, such as lingering drought impacts in Texas and late harvesting of fall crops in the northern Great Plains. Double crop acreage is also likely to decline in 2009. But if weather conditions cooperate, and crop prices look attractive, then some of this lost acreage could be planted in 2009." He says the trade is now pointing to season average prices of $4.10 for corn and $8.50 for soybeans. Read Chad Hart's newsletter at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo040109.pdf
• "Soybean surprise" is what Mike Woolverton at Kansas St. called the USDA planting intentions report, since the market was expecting 79.25 mil. acres, and he wonders if enough beans will be produced. He says stocks are 9% under last year, and with exports better than expected, ending stocks will be 6% of usage, below the pipeline supply.
• Woolverton says South America will not make up the shortfall. "Southern Hemisphere harvest is just now reaching the drought-damaged areas of Southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina where reported yields are running 40% below last year," Woolverton says. He expects USDA's next report to show projected global supply low relative to global demand, even though demand has been weakened by the global economic downturn.
• Kansas State's Woolverton was also surprised with the "triple-digit declines in spring wheat planting intentions. Farmers in ND, MT, MN, and SD; the 4 largest spring wheat producing states, expect to plant about 700,000 fewer acres of wheat; and that was before the recent flooding that may prevent spring wheat planting in some areas." Read his newsletter: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Purdue's Chris Hurt says we are returning to a normal grain marketing situation, with aggressive bids for the new crop and with basis levels closer to historical levels. But while he says stability is returning, he says grain prices have probably hit bottom.
• Pesticides have value says the CropLife Foundation in a report funded by crop protection firms: http://www.croplifefoundation.org/cpri_benefits_insecticides.htm
  1) Each year, approximately 45 mil. acres of US crops are treated with insecticides
  2) Farmers annually spend $1.2 bil. on insecticides to prevent crop loss to insects.
  3) If untreated, 31 of 50 primary crops would suffer production loss of 40% or more.
  4) Seven of the crops would suffer nationwide production losses over 70%.
  5) For every $1 spent on insecticides, US farmers gain $19 in production value.
• We won't tattle on you, but your pesticide storage may not be up to standards. IL Extension's Jim Morrison says, "Pesticides on the farm should also be kept locked and the pesticide storage building should be labeled with a sign stating "Danger – Pesticides – Keep Out". Keep inventory records of pesticides up to date and easily accessible. Have a complete label and a Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS) for every product on the farm."
• Alfalfa analysis #1. Evaluate your stand by plants in 1 square foot, and you should find: 1) Greater than 12 in the spring of the first production year, 2) Greater than 8 in the spring of the second year, and 3) Greater than 5 in the spring of the third year. Before tearing up the stand, consider forage inventory, cash flow, and available land.
• Alfalfa analysis #2. The preferred method of stand evaluation is a stem count per square foot. This approach is a good indicator of potential yield. Stem counts can be taken when the plants are 4 to 6 inches or taller. Count any stem that would be cut at harvest. If there are fewer than 39 robust stems per square foot, consider tearing up the stand.
• Wheat analysis. Evaluate your wheat as the soil dries out, particularly if you had little snow cover. Count wheat plants over a 20-foot span in five areas of your field for a period of several weeks to decide whether plants will outgrow injury and to assess any damage that may have occurred. One general guideline is 70 tillers per square foot are considered adequate for optimal yield, says IL Extension's Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing.
• Except for those being caught in traps, black cutworm moths are spreading across the Cornbelt, with females seeking suitable sites to lay eggs. IL Extension entomologists say fields with the greatest risk of black cutworm injury this spring include first-year corn infested with common chickweed and other winter annuals, especially where conservation tillage (including no-till) has been practiced. The annual threat from black cutworms has been reduced by the use of Bt corn, seed treatments and soil insecticides.
• Yoo-hoo. Any soybean aphids out there? The every other year schedule no longer is any good, and specialists say the number of aphids they find in the fall no longer gives a good indication of the population the following year. IL Entomologist David Voegtlin says few eggs were found on buckthorn, but they will have overwintered somewhere in the Midwest and will likely expand into treatable populations in those areas. Read his observations at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1070 .
• Your soil type may dictate how you approach spring fieldwork, say IA State ag engineers. Managing corn stubble in continuous corn, which was not worked last fall, depends on soil moisture. They say avoid conventional tillage this spring.
  1) Loess soils that are wet in the top 2-3 in. should be no-tilled using row cleaners.
  2) In Glacial-till soils, run an empty planter with row cleaners to push residue aside, then
  let the soil dry for 2-3 days prior to planting, which will improve corn germination.
  3) Strip-till or disking to "dry" the soil will only result in compacted clods at planting.
  4) If planting into wet soil, increase seeding rate 2-3,000 to compensate for stand loss.
• If you are still juggling corn prices and the cost of anhydrous ammonia, consult the updated version of the corn nitrogen rate calculator, which helps your decision on how much to apply, taking corn prices and nitrogen costs into consideration. Find the calculator at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx .
• Increase your corn yield with 10 ideas from Ohio St. agronomist Peter Thomison:
  1) Know the yield potential of the field, its yield history, and soil productivity.
  2) Use hybrids with high ratings over many trials, using Bt if you have rootworms.
  3) Use pest management practices that provide effective, timely pest control.
  4) Begin planting before the optimum date if dry, and aim to finish by May 10.
  5) Plant 1.5-2 in. deep, at 4.5 to 5 mph, and monitor to prevent uneven emergence.
  6) Adjust seeding rate by field, and plant up to 32,000 on highly productive soils.
  7) Use the most economical N rate, avoid N loss, and consider using stabilizers.
  8) Use soil testing to adjust pH and guide P & K fertilization at optimum rates.
  9) Till only when necessary and when soil conditions are right.
  10) Take advantage of crop rotation to boost corn yield 10-15% after soybeans.

It's getting crunch time. April 1^st is here and past and as I write this the prediction is for rain two of the next 4 days. Many of you have yet to apply dry fertilizer for this years crop, and quite a few corn acres need nitrogen applied as well. The days are going to be long this spring.

Fertilizer prices have really eased since last fall. They're still very high, but at least we've gotten a little break. The question still remains though, how much, if any, fertilizer does this years crop really need? And to answer that question, you'll need a recent soil test. Use that test to determine if your crop will benefit from phosphorus or potassium. Based upon data from IL and IA, soil test phosphorus levels of 20 #/acre will provide 97% of maximum corn yield and 100% of soybean yield. Soil test potassium levels of 250#/acre will provide 94% of corn and 96% of soybean yield.

The question is then what is your current soil test, and if they're lower that these numbers, what will it cost to bring them up. Or if they're higher, how much can you save by not fertilizing. These soil test levels are not all that high. Many fields are probably at or above that level. But if you elect not to fertilize this year, your soil test level will go down as the crop draws up nutrients. Just remember, you can't play this game very long without sacrificing yield, unless you have very high soil test levels.

Nitrogen is the other concern now. With (likely) limited time to perform field work, every minute counts. Do you really want to be pulling a tool bar across the field when you could be planting corn? There are other nitrogen sources available, and this year may be the year to consider them. Liquid UAN (28 or 32%) can be applied with the herbicide. Yes, it can be subject to loss since it's surface applied (unless you incorporate your corn herbicides). However, rainfall within 10-14 days of application will eliminate those loss concerns. There's also a product called Agrotain, that can be used to limit loss as well.

Urea can be applied with the dry fertilizer as another option. Again, the concern is loss. And the concern is greater with urea versus UAN (since only half the nitrogen in UAN is subject to loss whereas all the nitrogen in urea is). We usually recommend that urea be incorporated to reduce opportunities for loss. Or, Agrotain can be used with urea to help reduce loss. Or another alternative would be coated urea, which breaks down via moisture and temperature, taking 4-8 weeks to do so. The only concern with coated urea is that it can float away if surface applied and not incorporated, and heavy rains occur.

Of course, sidedressing is another option. Which is the method that would allow you to reduce your nitrogen rate since you'll be applying closer to the time when the crop would utilize the fertilizer.