• Buckle your seatbelt for the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, to be issued that morning by USDA. Statisticians interviewed thousands of farmers earlier this month on their acreage plans. The market is expecting corn acreage at 84.548 mil. acres, the average of an 81.4 to 89 mil. acre range. That compares to 85.982 mil. acres last year.
• How many soybean acres will you plant? The market thinks it will be in a range of 75.9 to 81.5 mil. acres, with the average at 79.251 mil. That would be substantially more than the 75.718 mil. acres planted last year. Many observers who are weighing in on the forecast believe soybean acres will rise because of the greater chance for profitability.
• Speaking of soybeans, cash prices have swung more than $2 since last December, including a substantial spurt last week. IL Extension's Darrel Good says that resulted from higher energy prices, a weaker dollar, and a rally in financial futures. Read more of his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/032309.html
• South America should be dominating the bean market says Good, but with a smaller crop in Brazil and angry farmers in Argentina, export buyers continue to gobble up US supplies. That points to a record level of soybean exports, thanks in major part to China, which has purchased 58% of them. Exports will be pushing toward 1.2 bil. bu. this year.
• Darrel Good says the size of the new crop will have a major impact on soybean prices, but there will still be uncertainty about that even after the Prospective Plantings report. The current weather in the upper Plains may throw planting into question in the Dakotas.
• The rebound in soybean futures and the stronger basis are providing an opportunity for pricing old crop beans, but Good says it is a harder decision for the new crop, "November futures are slightly above the spring price guarantee for crop revenue insurance so there is some downside risk for unpriced new crop soybeans. That risk is small for the insured portion of the crop, but greater for the uninsured portion," favoring frequent, small sales.
• Marketing recommendations come from Extension's Mike Roberts at Virginia Tech:
  1) Corn: The time to get your old crop corn sold is NOW as this sales window is not expected to last. It is a very good idea to get the '09 crop priced to 45% if you haven't done so already. Feed purchasers should wait at least another week or two to buy.
  2) Soybeans: It is a good idea to sell all old crop soybeans in the bin and get up to 35% of the '09 crop priced now. A consensus of sources over the last few days has agreed it is not unreasonable to see loan rate soybeans before this market is done.
• In the Quarterly stocks report Tuesday the market expects 7 bil. bu. of corn compared to 6.859 bil. a year ago, and beans at 1.322 bil. bu. compared to 1.434 bil. in 2008.
• The Cattle on Feed report indicated feedlot inventory is 5.3% under 2008 levels, with February placements down 2.6% and marketings down 5.3%. Shane Ellis at Iowa State says the numbers should have been bullish, but the weakness in beef demand has sapped the strength in the market and consumers still prefer lower cost protein sources. More http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/info/info2009/s0901.pdf
• Cattle price forecasts are more of a function of oil prices than numbers in feedlots, says MO livestock economist Scott Brown, "When oil prices surge, more corn is diverted into ethanol for fuel, raising the cost of corn for feed. In turn, higher feed costs lower feedlot demand for calves. That means less money for cow-calf producers." Brown also says a lower dollar will spur overseas demand for US beef, and 8% of US beef is exported.
• Some beef producers will not survive, says Brown, "Beef producers surviving the economic downturn will be in position to profit in 2010 and beyond." He adds, "Beef supply is not that plentiful. In a recovery, there won't be enough beef to meet the demand. That applies locally and around the world. Consumers in foreign countries want our beef. It just depends on whether their economies will support buying U.S. beef."
• A valuable commodity produced on many livestock farms and highly desired by gardeners and landscape aficionados now has a central trading point. Not as complex as the Board of Trade, and futures and basis are not involved, a manure exchange has been established by IL Extension livestock management specialist Randy Fonner. You won't have to pay a brokerage commission at: http://www.manureshare.illinois.edu/ .
• Harvesting corn residue may become profitable, but requires nutrient restoration. More: http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/cropsystems/M1243.html
  1) Target corn residue harvest in fields that will be planted to corn next year.
  2) Rotate fields so that residue is not removed from the same field every year.
  3) Reduce tillage following residue harvest.
  4) To restore carbon, use manure instead of or in addition to commercial fertilizer
  5) Consider a winter cover crop after residue removal. Roots from winter cover crops are extremely effective at scavenging residual soil nitrate and adding carbon to the soil.
• What is your target corn population? MN Extension agronomist Jeff Coulter says IL researchers found, "As yield potential increased from 135 to 225 bushels per acre, the economically optimum plant population increased from about 25,000 to 32,000 plants per acre." In MN Coulter found, "Yield was maximized at 36,000 plants per acre, and a final stand of 32,000 to 34,000 plants per acre was necessary to maximize economic return. Read more at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2009/09MNCN03.html
• What is your soybean planting rate? NE researchers used 30" rows for 3 years and planting rates from 90,000 to 180,000 per acre. "The 120,000, 150,000, and 180,000 yields were statistically the same (only a 0.3-bu. difference between the 120,000 and 150,000 rates) and were significantly better than the 90,000 seed-per-acre plots; however, note that the 90,000 plot yielded only 1.7 bu/ac less than 150,000 plot." They said it was the ability of soybeans to compensate for reduced population. http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
• The final recommendation from the NE research is to reduce populations by 40,000 to 120,000 seeds per acre. "This results in a savings of $10.66 to $18.57 per acre based on seed costs of $40-65 a bag." They report that a 90% stand has been achieved.
• Insect management in your corn and soybeans requires a "Do I need this" answer. That is the position of Ohio State entomologists who share your concern. http://corn.osu.edu/
  1) For corn after corn, take preventative action against corn rootworm larvae.
  2) Crop rotation is still the preferred action in areas without the rootworm variant.
  3) Take preventative action against corn borers if you have a history of borer problems.
  4) Transgenic hybrids are recommended against borers if corn is planted after late May.
  5) The use of transgenic hybrids requires the planting of a 20% refuge to non-Bt corn.
  6) Seed treatments are recommended if the crop is being planted into weeds or alfalfa.
  7) Seed treatments will not control black cutworm and are not recommended.
  8) Where cutworm damage is common, use a soil insecticide at planting or Herculex.
  9) Seed treatments on soybeans will not have any impact on controlling soybean aphids.
  10) Unless high populations, seed treatments will not be economical for bean leaf beetles.
  11) Seed treatments are warranted on food grade beans to prevent bean pod mottle virus.
• If you are growing non-GMO soybeans, weed control should not be a major problem if you follow a 4-step program recommended by Ohio St. agronomists. http://corn.osu.edu/
  1) Start weed free at planting with tillage or a preplant herbicide burndown application.
  2) Include a broad spectrum residual herbicide in the preplant burndown.
  3) Once the beans have emerged, apply a post herbicide to small weeds.
  4) Make a second post herbicide application for survivors or late emerging weeds.
• Beware of the potential for weed patches in some fields to have developed resistance to PPO inhibitors found in Flexstar and Cobra/Phoenix say the Ohio St. weed specialists. And they say the really bad news is that herbicides being recommended for non-GMO soybeans may be driving more weed populations to become resistant to PPO inhibitors. That is because of the prevalence of weed populations that are also ALS resistant. Their solution is to plant non-GMO beans in a field only once every 3-4 years in a rotation.
• If you are considering a foliar fungicide for wheat, WI Extension agronomists want you to first consider what disease resistance is carried by the variety of wheat planted. They say, "Economically, the decision to make a foliar fungicide application is dependent on crop yield potential, commodity prices, pesticide cost including application, and crop yield loss caused by wheel track damage. An adequate yield potential for soft red winter wheat would be in the 55-65 bu/a range. The goal when considering yield and economics is that you want to cover the total cost of the fungicide application."
• Have you been nurturing a young herd, flock, or whatever of soybean cyst nematodes this winter? They may be out of sight and out of mind, but they are hungry and can't wait for you to plant soybeans. They are temporarily parked in fields with host plants of purple deadnettle, henbit, pennycress, shepherd's purse, bittercress, & chickweed.

Over the past few years, we've been discussing the need to use a pre plant or pre emerge herbicide ahead of Roundup Ready soybeans or corn. The reason being to reduce the incidence of resistance developing from continued use of glyphosate herbicide. And most producers have followed through on this management practice, finding it saves them time, money and yield.

It's even more critical to follow this management tactic as we have waterhemp resistant to glyphosate herbicide in the area. We also have waterhemp resistant to the diphenyl ether herbicides (cobra, phoenix, blazer, flexstar, etc.) as well. And the waterhemp populations resistant to diphenyl ethers are much more common that those waterhemp populations resistant to glyphosate. So the need to use a pre-emerge herbicide is even more important, because in soybeans, those are the only two herbicide families that can be used post-emerge to control waterhemp.

A number of herbicides are available in soybean to provide pre control of waterhemp, including: valor, authority, intrro, dual, treflan, prowl (and premixes including these products). And the cost of these products will range from approximately $5-$10 per acre. It's the cheapest form of resistance management you can use if glyphosate is the planned second trip.

The use of a pre herbicide ahead of Roundup Ready crops allows you delay the post herbicide trip (glyphosate) because of the weed control offered. However, keep in mind that weeds do compete with crop yield, and follow the guidelines of 4-6 inch size weeds for corn and 6-8 inch size weeds for soybean when making that glyphosate post application. Otherwise, allowing weeds to grow to larger sizes can cost you big bucks, much more than the cost of the herbicide and the application.

Aaron Hager, U of I Extension Weed Science, recently determined the exact cost of delayed post emergent application, based upon soybean price and yield lost due to delayed application. With a 50 bushel yield, and bean prices of $10, just a one day delay in post emerge application will cost you $5 per acre in lost yield. If you delay that application by 5 days, then the weed competition will reduce your soybean yield to the tune of $25 per acre.

• Will corn production match consumption needs for the 2009-10 marketing year? That is what Darrel Good is wondering in his latest newsletter, since consumption will decide ending stocks and influence your cropping pattern for next year. The IL Extension specialist says recent export demand has been strong enough to exceed USDA estimates.
• Corn used for ethanol production in December was at a record level says Good, indicating recovery of the ethanol industry and more favorable margins. While USDA's ethanol use projection is more optimistic than Good expects, he says the mandate for ethanol production is for 12 bil. gal. in 2010, requiring 500 mil. more bushels of corn.
• Darrel Good says total corn consumption could reach 12.5 bil. bu. in the 2009-10 marketing year, so 12.2 bil. bu. will be needed this year. With a 152.8 trend yield, he says that will require 79.8 mil. harvested acres and 87 mil. planted. Good says USDA expects 86 mil. planted and the market is currently expecting less than 87 mil. planted. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/031609.html .
• Crude oil prices, the stock market, and the value of the dollar have been the main features in the commodity market in the eyes of South Dakota marketing specialist Alan May, "As long as the current recession remains in place, grain markets will be strongly influenced by those outside factors that may override the more typical supply and demand fundamentals of grain." He said corn has rallied recently despite those.
• Soybeans are tied to the hip of crude oil, believes Alan May at South Dakota St., "When crude falls, beans fall in value. When crude oil rallies, soybean prices have improved." He says crude oil prices have seen a more consistent stabilization with the more recent trend (the last few weeks) being one of modest price growth.
• ACRE answers were provided this week by FSA, along with the reminder that June 1 is the sign-up deadline for 2009 participation, and that all producers on the farm must agree to the ACRE participation. The Q & A provisions indicate there is no crop insurance requirement, and participation is allowed in future years, if you opt out of the program for this year. Read more: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/acre.pdf .
• ACRE was a question mark when economists at the Food and Ag Policy Research Institute calculated their 10-year projection for prices and production. There was uncertainty about how many farmers would sign up for the ACRE program or stay with the conventional rates for direct payments and market loans. FAPRI economists say ACRE pricing scenarios show advantages for producers of most crops in the Cornbelt.
• The FAPRI 10-year baseline begins with acreage contraction in 2009 due to weak global demands that will not support the additional acreage seen last year. FAPRI expects 4 mil. fewer acres being planted this year to the 12 major crops. The FAPRI report on crops and livestock prices is at: www.fapri.missouri.edu .
• If you are starting the year behind the curve, save time and expense by eliminating tillage for soybeans after corn. Iowa St. researchers say there is an insignificant soybean yield response from tillage. The cost is $18-25 per acre for conventional tillage compared to no-till, and 6 years of research shows only 1 bu. per acre additional yield.
• It must be spring, if black cutworms are being found in traps. Two adult moths were found in Southern IL on Mar. 10. Temperatures are important for larvae hatch, and weather stations have already recorded 200 degree-days just east of St. Louis, MO.
• If black cutworms are a concern, Ohio St. entomologists say they do not recommend seed treatments for black cutworm control. They recommend scouting, then application of a rescue treatment if larvae are found. They say if the field has a history of black cutworms or a high population of winter annuals, then a preventative tactic that works can be used, such as using an insecticide at planting or using Herculex XTRA seed.
• Is Integrated Pest Management (IPM) a priority? IL entomologists surveyed farmers:
  1) 83% believe economic thresholds are still viable for insect pest management.
  2) 73% say insect control decisions are based on economic thresholds.
  3) 24% say insect control decisions are based on potential yield benefit.
  4) 97% planted a Bt hybrid in 2008 seeking a yield benefit.
  5) 80% would still plant a Bt hybrid even if corn borer or rootworm levels were low.
• Call it horseweed or marestail, it has become a significant headache for many farmers as tillage declines. Capable of both a summer and winter life cycles, patches that are resistant to several herbicide families are becoming more common. IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says it should be controlled before planting with tillage help. Find complete advice at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1064 .
  1) If tillage is not an option, existing plants should be controlled before 6 in. in height.
  2) Use glyphosate burndown with tankmix of dicamba, paraquat, and 2,4-D.
  3) Ester formulations of 2,4-D are preferable over amine formulations.
  4) Glufosinate can be used, and improved with tankmix of atrazine or metribuzin.
• What is your weed crop in the field to be planted to non-GMO soybeans? Ohio St. weed specialist Mark Loux expects your weed issues to be difficult to control, since many weeds are becoming ALS-resistant. He says your general weed program may be:
  1) Use tillage or a burndown to begin planting from the point of being weed free.
  2) Include broad-spectrum residual herbicides in the preplant burndown treatment.
  3) Apply a post herbicide to small weeds, and a second post application to late arrivals.
• Did your wheat survive the winter? Fields with no ground cover or where plants failed to root adequately before the December cold snap are the ones of most concern to IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger. Fluctuating temperatures can cause the soil to heave the crown out of the soil and expose roots to sun and wind damage, as well as freezing.
• Wheat diseases are also a cold weather issue, particularly wheat mosaic virus that lives with a fungal organism that enters wheat roots. Cold spells last fall could have benefited the virus that infected the wheat. Pythium root rot is also a potential fungus if wheat was planted into wheat chaff and straw and wet soils. While a systemic fungicide can help against Pythium, both problems can be helped with using resistant wheat varieties.
• Wheat that is greening up deserves a shot of spring nitrogen. Ohio St. agronomists say yields can be improved if the timing of the application came when the first stem node was visible, compared to an application when the wheat was turning green. Yields dropped 10-15% if the nitrogen application was delayed to the early boot stage.
• High-yielding, irrigated continuous corn may be short on phosphorus says NE nutrient management specialist Charles Wortmann. He says current recommendations are to not add phosphorus when your soil test indicates it is over 15 parts per million. However his new research recommends applying up to 20 ppm of phosphorus on continuous corn.
• But with phosphorus costing $1,000 per ton, is that something you can get along with out? Purdue fertility specialist Jim Camberato says, "Contrary to popular belief, more often than not the corn crop responds to the nitrogen component and not the phosphorous component of starter fertilizer." He says the crop only benefits from 5-10% of the P.
• What is your "footprint" for emitting greenhouse gases? The EPA is contemplating a monitoring program of industrial sources of methane, carbon dioxide and other gases, say MO Extension specialists. Included on the list for monitoring are manure storage facilities, but left off the list are manure composting facilities, tillage, farm burning, and the controversial "cow tax." The specialists say there is no tax included in the monitoring proposal, but consider it a first step toward limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Read more: http://nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/greenhouse_gas.asp
• 320 acres of energy grass are growing on the largest bio-fuels research farm in the US, located at Urbana, IL, where miscanthus, switchgrass, corn, and restored prairie are under research to compare insect and disease challenges, environmental benefits, economic opportunities and potential energy per acre of each. The biggest challenge is planting the potato-like roots of miscanthus, and researchers are inventing planters and harvesters.
• Corn is one of those biomass crops, but is being cultivated for its stover value instead of grain. IL researchers have rearranged the genes to produce a high sugar content grain, sugar in the stalk, and bulky biomass in the stalk. The plant uses very little nitrogen, and researchers say yields, even with low nitrogen, top production records for switchgrass.

• The March 31 Prospective Plantings Report will confirm whether USDA's estimate of fewer planted corn and soybean acres in the recent Outlook Conference was correct. IL Extension's Darrel Good says the combination of 86 mil. corn and 77 mil. soybean acres appears low, given the 4.2 mil. acre cut in wheat and 2 mil. acre cut in cotton and rice.
• Good says USDA believes planted acreage will decline as a result of lower returns, but farmers will have to confirm that in the survey now underway. He says the market will assess the intentions and decide if prices need to change to alter the intended acreage. He says unless acreage is reduced, there may be a potential surplus of one or more crops.
• The Quarterly Stocks Report also will be released in two weeks, and Darrel Good says it will be more important for corn than for the bean market. Bean use is well known, and Good says March 1 stocks should be about 1.3 bil. bu. But he says conflicts between USDA and Census Bureau statistics on corn exports make the stocks estimates difficult to predict. He's estimating 2^nd quarter use at 2.6 bil. and March 1 stocks at 7.1 bil. bu. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/030909.html
• USDA's March Supply Demand Report forecast a 100 mil. bu. increase in corn demand by ethanol refiners, the result of improved profitability. Carryout dropped to 1.74 bil. bu. Export demand was lowered by 50 mil. bu. and feed demand held stead at 5.3 bil. bu. Corn exports are competing with other nations and feed quality wheat. USDA estimated the season average price at $4.10 from early season forward contracts.
• USDA's March Supply Demand Report forecast a 10 mil bu. drop in the soybean crush to 1.64 bil. which results from weaker demand for oil and meal. With bio-diesel facing low profitability, soy oil demand was reduced by 700 mil. lbs. Soybean exports remain strong, and export projections were raised to 1.185 bil. bu. thanks to Chinese demand. Carryout was dropped to 185 mil. and the season average price was reset to $9.35 per bu.
• USDA's March Supply Demand Report forecast higher carryover for the 2008 wheat crop putting stocks-to-use at 32%. While Kansas State's Mike Woolverton says the report was bearish for wheat, USDA held the season price range steady at $6.70-$6.90. Woolverton says the global wheat crop grew with larger Australian yields.
• Woolverton at Kansas State says the S/D report does not address any "demand destruction," although exports are down. He says, "This is a more optimistic picture than we have been led to believe, given recent press coverage of bad economic news. If the stock market has indeed found its bottom, look for commodities to decouple from the decline in stock prices and attract more attention from traders in coming weeks."
• Commodity prices may be low now, but they will return to higher levels over the next 10 years say FAPRI economists at MO and IA St. Recovery is projected in 2010, helped by China, India, and Vietnam with 7-8% economic growth. They expect ethanol prices to fall because of lower crude oil prices, but bio-energy mandates ensure demand growth.
• The FAPRI economists forecast soft wheat and corn prices into the 2009-10 marketing years, but eventually climb on increased demand. Weaker demand will also soften soybean prices, but world trade will grow by one-third in the coming decade helped by Chinese demand. Meat prices should be strong because of growing global demand.
• Farmers considering the biotech endorsement for crop insurance, do not have to make that commitment by the March 16 crop insurance deadline. USDA's deadline for the BE option is not until June 30^th, which is the deadline for FSA planted acreage reporting. Anyone using the BE option must provide the agent with seed and planting records, says Stephen Johnson of IA St., who says hail and wind policies can be added after March 16.
• Dryland farmers in the Western Cornbelt are being urged by Kansas St. economist Art Barnaby to obtain a minimum 70% CRC or RA-HPO insurance, or greater coverage for optional units. He's recommending enterprise units for corn in a single county, which has a discounted premium and a higher USDA subsidy. Barnaby says an 80% coverage on enterprise units increases total guaranteed dollars and gains SURE disaster protection.
• Barnaby says his reason for CRC or RA-HPO with the lowest premium cost is because they have no downside price limits, and the upside limit is 2 times the base price on all revenue products. More: http://www.agmanager.info/crops/insurance/risk_mgt/default.asp
• Don't consider any shenanigans says Art Barnaby at Kansas St. if you are thinking about shorting fertilizer applications because your revenue crop insurance guarantee is more than your crop might gross. Barnaby says crop insurance policies require farmers to follow good farming practices, and an adjuster could deny a claim if it isn't followed. Barnaby also says that will only serve to lower your APH for future years.
• ACRE is strongly recommended by Mich. State ag economist Jim Hilker, instead of relying on Direct Payments, "ACRE is more like revenue insurance (although it is not a substitute for crop insurance), what are the odds there will be a payoff? My analysis at this point is that there is over a 50% chance that ACRE for corn will trigger at both the state and farm levels in 2009, and probably more than make up for the lost 20% of direct payments." Read more of his Outlook: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• While Hilker's vantage point is the state of Michigan, he calculates that expected corn, soybean, and wheat prices would trigger payment from the ACRE program this year:
  1) Corn: "It would only take a price a bit lower than the $3.60 estimate to trigger ACRE even with trend yields if the 2008-09 price remains at $3.90 or higher."
  2) Wheat: "If the $5.15 price forecast occurs, it would trigger ACRE for wheat with normal yields. The past two years' average price is 22% higher."
  3) Soybeans: "The average of the 2007-08 and 2008-09 average annual weighted bean prices is $9.67. The $8.00 projection for 2009-10 is over 20% lower (compared to $9.67). Normal yields or less and we have another ACRE trigger."

• Farmers baffled by varying refuge requirements for BT corn with stacked traits may want to follow NE Extension recommendations, since rootworm BT is more restrictive than corn borer BT traits. Read the latest newsletter: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
  1) Plant one common refuge, void of Bt traits, instead of planting 2 separate refuges.
  2) Plant the refuge in the same field as the Bt traits to help meet distance requirements.
  3) Know the minimum required refuge size for a particular geography and Bt trait.
• If charcoal rot is one of your soybean headaches, you will want to see how Doug Jardine of Kansas St. recommends identification and management. He's featured on a free web-based program available until the end of March, and provided by the Plant Management Network, which publishes agricultural resource materials, such as Jardine's webcast. http://www.plantmanagementnetwork.org/edcenter/seminars/SampleWebcast/
• Dairymen are urged to tune into a web-based seminar at 12 Noon on March 20 about Feeding Strategies with Current Milk Prices. IL Extension's Mike Hutjens will focus on feed benchmarks, impact of nutrient reduction, by-product feeds, and monitoring cow performance. Free registration: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/356266420
• Dairy operations with silage need to observe optimum planting dates. MN agronomist Jeff Coulter says milk per ton of silage was within 1% of the maximum when corn was planted April 15 to May 17 in WI, and milk per acre was within 1% of the maximum when planting dates were April 21 and May 6. He says silage dry matter increases with higher plant population, but dry matter yield slows when populations exceed 35,000. Read his newsletter at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2009/09MNCN02.html
• Canadian hogs entering the US have slowed say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. In fact feeder pig imports are down over 36%, in part because there are 10% fewer hogs in Canada and the breeding herd is down 7%. They also say the US COOL labeling law makes it less attractive to import live animals instead of meat.
• Cattle feeders have suffered huge losses this winter say Grimes and Plain, with many closeouts in the red by over $200/head. The result is feed lots slowing down their rate of marketing to force up prices, but that forced up slaughter weights by 29 lbs this week.
• After measuring carbon in the soil of 7 eastern states, OSU agronomists say carbon storage is greatest in the top 8 inches of no-till fields; but if you measure stored carbon down to 12 inches, more will be found in plowed fields than in no-till. Survey leader Rattan Lal says carbon storage is best done based on soil type, rather than by tillage.
• Farms are still on the wrong side of the digital divide. The 2007 Ag Census indicates 57% have Internet access, up from 50% in 2002. Of those that have access, 58% have a high-speed connection, which increases farmers' efficiency in using the Internet.

• Soybeans may have a record year, says Iowa State's Chad Hart, particularly if 77 mil. acres are planted to beans, which would be a record amount of land. He says USDA is projecting that level based on lower input costs compared to corn. The resulting 3.24 bil. bu. would also be a record, as would a projected 1.225 bil. bu. of exports. However, Hart says production will exceed use and stocks will increase with an average $8 season price.
• Grain markets still have their sights on South American crops and how much production was lost to the dry spell over recent months, says Chad Hart. USDA thinks South American corn production will be down 21% and beans down 6%. With global trade shifting to South America, US weekly corn sales were down 66% and exports down 15% compared to the prior week. Soybean sales were down 69% and exports down 28%.
• Corn prices have been hurt by some negative fundamentals says Mike Roberts at VA Tech. He says a drop in crude oil, plunging equity markets, and gains in the US dollar pressured prices, along with the fact Japan bought Romanian corn, "New surveys show that many producers have '08 corn still in the bin. It would be a very good idea to get it sold at this time. It might be a good idea to price up to 45% of the 2009 crop."
• The soybean market is impacted by the same fundamentals says Roberts, who also says soybean prices are being pressured by the fact "The Argentinean government is interested in taking over their large soybean industry so they may regulate prices to their own buyers." And Roberts adds, "Cash soybeans are steady to stronger. It might be a good idea to get all old crop beans sold and price up to 25% of the '09 crop."
• A 50/50 chance. That's what Iowa State Meteorologist Elwynn Taylor is giving for La Nina-derived weather problems in 2009. He says the current event shows signs of weakening, but there is no clear trend, which usually is apparent by mid-March to mid-April. So he says the chance of a neutral versus La Nina condition by June is 50/50.
• What does a La Nina mean? Elwynn Taylor says the trend line corn yield for 2009 is 153.4 bushels per acre, with a Dec futures value of $4.53 at harvest. He says the historical response to the La Nina would give a 144 bu. yield with a Dec harvest value of $5.45. If La Nina shifts to neutral, he expects 155 bu. and a Dec futures price of $4.37.
• USDA's Risk Management Agency earlier this week certified the spring guarantees for revenue-based crop insurance such as Revenue Assurance (RA) and Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC). The spring guarantees are $4.04 for corn and $8.80 for soybeans. The sign-up deadline is March 16 for spring planted row crops in the Cornbelt, for anyone signing up for the first time or making substantial changes in a crop insurance program.
• Some of the variables remain unknown for the ACRE program, including your farm's performance and the final tally for state average prices from the current marketing year. However, IL Extension economist Nick Paulson has estimated Illinois guarantees:
  1) For corn the yield component will be roughly 164 bu/acre and the price component is projected about $4.05 per bushel, implying a state-level revenue guarantee of $600/A.
  2) Similarly, the current projections for the revenue guarantees for soybean and wheat acres for 2009 are approximately $400 and $345 per acre, respectively.
• Evaluating several thousand farm records, Paulson estimates ACRE would have been triggered in 10 of the past 31 years for IL corn with average payments of $53. Payments averaging $37 would have been made on IL soybeans in 5 of the last 31 years. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo09_04/fefo09_04.html .
• Choosing ACRE requires awareness. Paulson says, "If farm yields tend to closely follow the (state) average, the farm trigger criteria will have a greater chance of being met in years when ACRE payments are triggered. The timing of payments should be considered. Because of the definition of the price component used by the ACRE program, the revenue guarantee will not be completely established prior to expected sign-up periods in the spring and the actual revenue measure used to determine ACRE payments in a given year will not be finalized until just before harvest of the following crop year."
• Supplemental Revenue Assistance, the permanent disaster aid program known as SURE, has been reopened for 2008 crop problems until May 18 at FSA offices. SURE required producers to have purchased crop insurance for all insurable crops that accounted for 5% or more of their expected gross value of crop production in 2008. The chance to pay a $100 per crop fee has been extended, but the coverage limit is 70% of the proven yield. Producers who enroll to make a 2008 claim must also enroll for 2009.
• SURE payments, if a disaster is triggered, are bolstered by a crop insurance policy, says Ohio State Extension's Chris Bruynis, "If a farmer chooses not to purchase crop insurance, they cannot participate in SURE. Essentially the SURE revenue guarantee will be 115% of the crop insurance coverage level plus 120% of the NAP coverage levels. If a 75% coverage level is purchased the SURE revenue guarantee will be approximately 86%. The SURE revenue guarantee is capped at 90% of expected crop revenue."
• With a wet fall and a possible wet spring, are you considering a switch to no-till to save time on field preparation? Iowa State agronomists suggest several considerations: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0302alkahsi.htm
  1) Check internal field drainage for ponds, plugged tiles, and plugged inlets.
  2) Soil temperature is critical and strip tillage is one way to warm, but conserve soil.
  3) Poor plant performance could reflect moisture or compaction problems below the seed.
  4) N, P, & K needs are the same in no-till, but P & K mineralization is slower.
  5) No-till does not change the economic returns for corn following soybeans.
• Beware of problems that could spell danger on some newer anhydrous ammonia applicators. Iowa State ag engineer Mark Hanna says high N prices have lead to flow controllers that can shut off individual knives. But he says it traps pressurized ammonia at locations in the system, requiring the entire applicator to be bled before servicing. More: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2002/4-8-2002/planters.html
• Have all your decisions been made for your 2009 corn and soybean crops? What about:
  1) Corn or beans? http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a1-80.html .
  2) Are your soil fertility decisions made? http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/soilfertility/
  3) Row width? http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/corn/production/management/planting/row.html
  4) Seeding rate? http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/corn/production/management/planting/
  5) Planter maintenance? http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2002/4-8-2002/planters.html
• It is too early to tell how the wheat crop survived the winter, says Ohio State University agronomist Pierce Paul, "March is always a very stressful time for wheat due to the rapid changes in air temperatures, potential for heaving, and flooding. However, what we've seen thus far is that the wheat seems to be coming out of winter in pretty good shape and that's largely because we had a good planting season and good snow cover."
• What about N for wheat? OSU agronomists say, "In general, if 20-30 pounds of nitrogen was applied at planting, wait until May 1 for more and don't waste application money or risk loss of early N. Applications of 28% should be made with large flood jets and just enough pressure to produce a good application pattern, which produces a reduced number of very large droplets and reduced leaf burn. Stream bars for 28% application will also greatly reduce crop damage. Urea application rarely causes leaf burn."
• If the winter was cold in your part of the Cornbelt, that reduces the chances of survival of flea beetles which spread Stewart's Wilt to corn seedlings. Regardless of how cold you got, OSU crop specialists are happy, "Because of a relatively cold January, much colder than normal, the index values are lower than we often see." Risks may be low.
• Grow it for silage and biomass, but not for grain yield. That is the low down on a new corn hybrid from IL plant geneticist Stephen Moose who says his work with the Glossy 15 gene shows the plant will get bigger at the end of the season, with more sugar in the stalks and fewer kernels on the cob. That means it is good for cellulosic ethanol plants.
• Pork demand is up says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes, "Surprising as it may seem to be our demand index for November 2008 through January 2009 shows about a 2% increase in pork demand and above a 1% increase in live hog demand. There appears to be a cycle in pork demand and the rate of decline in demand was decreasing through fall. Certainly, 3 months is not a long enough period to project a trend; but with the weak general economy, we will take stronger demand for any length of time we can get it."
• Pork producers can get on the "green" bandwagon with a spray of soybean oil inside their hog barns. Purdue researchers found it decreases methane emissions by 20%, and carbon dioxide by 19%, both of which are greenhouse gases. There was also a 65% drop in dust in the air. The researchers say cost issues and clean-up need to be resolved yet.

All final versions of the 2009 iFarm and FAST Crop Insurance Tools are available at:

http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/index.asp.

The final versions of the 2009 tools have been updated with the following values for areas with sales closing dates of March 16, 2009.

Final Values for Corn are:

APH indemnity price = $4.00

CRC base price = $4.04

RA base price = $4.04

GRIP base price = $4.04

CRC price factors = 0.944

RA price volatility = 0.370

GRIP price volatility = 0.340

Final Values for Soybeans are:

APH indemnity price = $9.90

CRC base price = $8.80

RA base price = $8.80

GRIP base price = $8.80

CRC price factors = 1.754

RA price volatility = 0.310

GRIP price volatility = 0.310

No doubt there are far fewer acres of wheat this year than we've had for a number of years. Complications of wet soil and the late harvest limited the number of acres sown last fall. Because of the late planting, many of the wheat acres were somewhat under developed entering dormancy when compared to normal. There just wasn't enough time between sowing and fall dormancy to get good growth. Hopefully, producers sowed at a heavier rate last fall to compensate for reduced tillering. As each tiller can produce a spike (head), increased tillers lead to increased yield.

Spring weather can also influence tillering. Since wheat is a cool season crop, a sunny and cool early spring can favor tiller development. Nitrogen can also influence tillering. Late winter nitrogen applications on thin stands may increase tillers. Take some stand counts. As a rule of thumb, 70 tillers per square foot is considered adequate for optimal yield.

The U of I has adopted some new nitrogen recommendations for wheat. These are based upon soil organic matter, nitrogen price and wheat price. The first step is to determine the amount of nitrogen a bushel of wheat will "buy". For instance, with urea priced at $400 per ton, the cost per unit of N is about 45 cents per pound. With wheat selling for $4.50 (July cash bid), one bushel of wheat would buy 10 pounds of nitrogen.

Then determine the organic matter level of the soil in which the wheat is growing. Higher soil OM levels can allow you to reduce your N application rates, as the soil will provide nitrogen through mineralization. Based upon the above economic scenario, the recommended N rates for various soil OM levels are as follows:

Soil OM of less than 2%- 120-150 pounds nitrogen

Soil OM of 2-4%- 80-100 pounds of nitrogen

Soil OM of greater than 4%- 50-70 pounds of nitrogen

Care should be taken if applying 120 or more pounds of nitrogen to ensure that overlap doesn't occur. And if attempting to interseed clover, you'll need to reduce the N rate by 25% or so.