• Is the convergence issue solved? IL Extension's Darrel Good says it was a problem in 2007 & 2008 when futures and cash prices would not come together at delivery markets. He says the basis is currently strong and March futures appear to be converging. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/022309.html .
• Good says the year over year change in convergence has been dramatic for soybeans, and corn seems to be back on track. He attributes the strong basis levels this year to:
  1) Lower price levels reducing the cost of owning, hauling, and storing crops.
  2) A rapid pace of soybean exports while farmers held grain declining in value.
  3) Improved profits for grain merchandisers, as the financial pressure of buying and storing high-priced crops and meeting margin calls on short hedge positions has subsided.
• For unpriced soybeans, Good says the old crop basis is stronger, but there is little to gain in storing until July. With interest at 4¢ per month, he says storage costs will not be covered. Good suggests any market speculation should be done with futures or basis contracts, but the economy and the South American crop make that a stretch.
• For unpriced corn, Good says there is more carry in the market and a return to storage. But farmers are holding corn and if 2009 acreage is high the basis will weaken. The new crop basis remains weak, discouraging new crop sales. With prices below the crop insurance guarantee, aggressive pricing of new crop corn and beans is discouraged.
• There are bullish fundamentals in the grain market, but Kansas State's Mike Woolverton says they continued to be overshadowed by other economic reports. He says the greatest uncertainty is the demand, because the global economic squeeze is forcing consumers to change food consumption patterns, including eating less pork and beef. Read more: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Woolverton says the ills can be cured with "stabilization of the global financial situation, resumption of speculative investment in commodities, a return to economic growth that will give consumers more money to spend, and a return to the food consumption patterns developed in the years before the economic difficulties. But he says, when that will occur is very difficult to determine, and history is of no help.
• Farmers with corn near ethanol plants may be able to benefit from those with a positive basis, says Michigan St. specialist Jim Hilker. He says deliver now and use a basis contract or a call option if you want to stay in the market. Hilker says, "In some parts of the country, ethanol plants are offering subsidized calls, check it out."
• The market expects higher soybean yields, says Hilker; "But it is also saying we will plant quite a few more soybean acres. Given the variable costs of corn versus soybeans, if your search around pretty hard to get the deals, the relative prices and yields, and the results suggest corn will have a higher return per acre, but just by a little. And this will vary as the market's opinion of what acres will be planted changes with new information and the relative prices fluctuate." More: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• Regarding wheat, Hilker says, "The market doesn't want your wheat, and doesn't want to pay you to store it. While new crop bids are higher than old crop, it is not by enough to store it commercially. With respect to new crop, just wait on any forward pricing." He says the wheat market has disapproved of the CBOT's additional delivery points and increased storage rates, since convergence of cash and futures has still not happened.
• Jim Hilker's analysis of ethanol reports, "When wholesale gas prices were near their peak of $3.60, wholesale ethanol prices were up to 70 cents lower, but still pulled corn prices to record levels. As gas prices fell to near present levels in early October, ethanol prices climbed over gas prices tempering the corn price drop. Corn/ethanol now appears to again be moving with oil/gas prices, but at near the 45 cents blender credit above gas."
• Biofuel profits may depend on the quality of your pond scum in the future. Algae will be a credible source of biomass to produce biodiesel and ethanol says IL ag engineer Lance Schideman, who gets 45-75 gal. of biodiesel and 300-500 gal. of ethanol per acre of algae. He says under the right conditions, the future may produce 10,000 gal. per acre.
• Algae can be processed with thermo-chemical conversion. TCC speeds up the process that squeezed swamps and dinosaurs into oil deposits and what the ag engineers have used to convert hog manure into crude oil. Schideman says algae can be produced on wastewater, and it will grow on nutrients that would otherwise wash from a watershed.
• Concerns are being expressed about the lack of infrastructure for timely application of fertilizer that should have been applied last fall, but due to the season, delayed it to this spring. Will there be enough toolbars, nurse tanks, and floaters available to cover the required acreage? If not, side-dressing nitrogen may be the most efficient alternative.
• Make your fertilizer dollar go as far as possible by calculating your economic return to nitrogen. You can pencil it out using nitrogen prices versus the price of corn forward contracted, or consult: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx .
• Iowa topsoil is as deep as ever, but it is deteriorating in quality. Iowa St. researchers went to 89 locations evaluated in the 1950's to assess changes, and found the soil tightly packed and less capable of allowing water and air to move through it. They compared the soil particles to a cupful of dice, when it should be a cupful of marbles as it was 50 years ago. The reason for the change was attributed to tillage making it more dense.
• Indiana farmers are being advised by spray specialists about a growing suburban practice that could become an issue for farmers with sprayers. That is the potential for spray to hit non-target vegetation. In addition to crops like vegetables, grapes and greenhouses, a new structure is a high tunnel, which is used to cultivate crops outdoors as early as February. That means plants will be growing in them when burndown chemicals are applied and any spray drifting over to housing developments will be a liability suit.
• The Cattle on Feed report indicated a 6% drop in head from a year ago, but placements were up 4%, and lightweight calves going on feed were up 8%. That was attributed to calves being pulled off wheat pasture early because of the lack of moisture for wheat.
• 2008 pork exports were 49% higher than in 2007, and consumed over 16% of production. MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says exports to China were up 140%, Japan up 15%, South Korea up 12%, Russia up 76%, and Taiwan was up 71%. But USDA believes pork exports in 2009 will be down 15% compared to 2008.
• Domestic pork profitability depends on the size of the herd, and Glenn Grimes says current farrowing intentions are down only 3.4%, with April-June down only 2.6%. He says with increases in litter size and a weak consumer demand, more reduction is needed.
• 2008 beef exports were up nearly 32% compared to 2007 and imports were down 17%, says Grimes. Mexico imported 11% more, Japan was up 45%, Canada up 15%, South Korea up 95% and Taiwan was up 21%. USDA believes 2009 beef exports will drop.
• If you want to save on fuel, follow some recommendations from Kansas State:
  1) Avoid unnecessary driving and handle the task with a phone call, not a trip.
  2) Match the vehicle to the task, and take the car to get parts and not the pick up.
  3) Clean the junk out of a vehicle, which adds weight and decreases fuel mileage.
  4) Maintain engines, since clogged filters and injectors rob power and efficiency.
  5) Check tire pressure since under or over inflation increases rolling resistance.
  6) Reduce tillage, since fewer tractor passes through a field means less fuel use.
  7) Match the tractor to the task, and not use a field tractor for a utility tractor's job.
  8) Check tractor ballast, since tires will slip and use more fuel than necessary.
  9) Gear up and throttle back, since ¾ power saves 5-15% fuel use over full throttle.
  10) Avoid engine idling, since unnecessary idling accounts for 15-20% of fuel use.
  11) Paint fuel tanks white, since dark ones heat up and can vent out evaporated fuel.
• It may seem like an oxymoron, but if you want to add value to corn stover, shred the stalks instead of chopping them. Purdue ag engineer Dennis Buckmaster says shredded stalks need 40% less energy to convert into ethanol, than do chopped stalks. Shredding increases the surface area of the biomass and then produces 11% more cellulose products.
• The $787 billion stimulus package will not have a check in the mail for agriculture says NE economist Tina Barrett, but employees receiving paychecks will get an extra $400 from an adjustment in their withholding spread out through the year. Farmers unable to obtain the benefit because of the lack of a paycheck or through quarterly estimates, will receive a $400 credit when paying 2009 income taxes, according to Barrett.

• Corn and soybean prices will be driven by acreage this spring believes IL Extension's Darrel Good, but he says acreage uncertainty stems from questions about profitability, cost of production, and declines in winter wheat and cotton acreage. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/021609.html .
• Darrel Good says biofuels will play a role in determining the need for corn acreage, but sorghum is replacing corn as a feedstock in some ethanol plants in the Southern and Central Plains states. He says the federal biofuel mandate calls for 10.5 bil. gal. in 2009 and 12.0 bil. gal. in 2010, but marketing years don't line up and the use of sorghum puts a new twist into the analysis of how much corn acreage is required for ethanol refining.
• Overall, ethanol's thirst for corn will be large, with at least 3.6 bil. bu. this year, 4.0 bil. bu. next year and up to 5 bil. bu. by the 2015 marketing year. Good thinks 2009 planted corn acreage needs to parallel 2008, but bean acres may not need to expand. However, he expects the Mar. 31 Prospective Plantings to predict more soybeans.
• Despite periodic positive news, the grain markets have regularly been rewarded with losses every day says South Dakota Extension marketing specialist Alan May. "What is at play here is the heavy pressure of outside markets; particularly crude oil, the dollar index market and the stock market. As these markets continue to either weaken or simply remain stagnant, grain commodities ignored the positive news of stronger corn export sales and expectations of greater export volume of soybeans."
• Brace yourself for a weekly storm, advises OSU meteorologist Jim Noel, because we are in a weather pattern that is typical for this time of year. He says weak La Nina conditions are getting weaker and should be gone by spring. But he says all of the ice on the Great Lakes makes for a cooler and wetter spring in the Eastern Cornbelt.
• Farm program eligibility depends on your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) and Adjusted Gross Farm Income (AGFI), so compute it carefully says Iowa St. ag law specialist Roger McEowen who provides a factsheet at: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/agi.html .
  1) A non-farm AGI cannot exceed $500,000 to receive farm program payments.
  2) An AGFI cannot exceed $750,000 to receive direct and counter cyclical payments.
  3) An AGI cannot exceed $1 mil. to get conservation payments unless 2/3 is farming.
  4) The average for the AGI for 2009 is the average for tax years 2005, 2006, & 2007.
  5) AGFI is net farm income, plus sale of capital goods, rentals, and royalties.
  6) AGI and AGFI are reported to FSA on Form CCC-926 and page 3 gives guidance.
  7) AGFI is a "net income" concept, not a producer's gross farm revenue.
• Caution is being advised by TN Extension economist Daryll Ray if farmers are considering the USDA's ACRE program. He's not convinced of its benefits, and says:
  1) The 2009 price guarantee is the average of 2007 & 2008 prices, but 2008 is unknown.
  2) Are farm and state-level yields used in revenue estimates really attainable?
  3) Signing up for ACRE requires proof of income, so farmers will surrender their 1040.
  4) Converting to ACRE irrevocably through 2012 is another headache.
  5) Obtain the paperwork and study it well before the June 1 deadline for signing up.
  6) Get legal help in defining "active involvement" is your farm is a partnership.
  7) Assemble your records in one place to document yields and acreages.
  8) Calculate worst-case and other scenarios for your farm using your own data.
  9) Your calculations should include the low end of USDA's estimated price range.
  10) Base your decisions on your own farm, not on the estimates of other farms.
  11) Obtain opinions from your CPA and banker about their perception of risks.
• Is there an advantage to leasing farm equipment? NE Extension's Tim Lemmons says among the advantages: lower up-front, down payment costs compared to purchasing; payments often are less than traditional loan payments; less liability on the balance sheet; equipment available for short-term needs; access to and use of latest technology; and lease payments are considered production expenses for tax purposes.
• Is there an advantage to buying farm equipment? Nebraska's Tim Lemmons suggests: owned equipment may be easily replaced or sold at the owner's discretion while replacing leased equipment may be more difficult; owned equipment has asset value and may be used as collateral against other loans; purchases do not require security deposits, although down payments to secure financing may be higher; purchased equipment has no use limitations while some leases specify the number of hours a machine may be used before a penalty is imposed; and increased asset value on the balance sheet.
• Increases of soybean seed price of 25%-100%+ may push some farmers to plant bin-run seed, but WI soybean specialist Shawn Conley says 90% of soybeans are glyphosate tolerant and federal patent laws prohibit that. He expects an increase of field monitoring this year to "catch" growers who recycle their soybeans into the planter box.
• Soybeans that are not herbicide tolerant fall under the Plant Variety Protection Act says Conley, and while that allows seed to be saved for planting, it restricts the amount of seed that someone can save to an amount that would serve the needs of his own farm. More: http://ipcm.wisc.edu/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=PfWKCfvYUf4%3d&tabid=114&mid=669 .
• But planting bin-run seed can create agronomic issues, and if the seed was not harvested with the intent of being seed the following year, there will likely be quality issues related to harvest timing, storage conditions, and handling says Conley. He says if you are planting bin-run seed, have it custom cleaned or conditioned, including the application of seed treatments and inoculants, if the law allows for that seed variety.
• Adverse winter weather can have an adverse impact on young livestock says Extension veterinarian Russ Daly, particularly problems that may not show up for some time after cold spells and blizzards. He warns of frostbite, pneumonia, and several viruses that can incubate for several days then be aggravated by other stressors such as weaning and transporting. He suggests consultation with local veterinarians to diagnose problems.
• The sagging global demand for beef may be out of the hands of the beef industry to control according to a study by Kansas St. and Michigan St. livestock economists.
  1) While price is important, small price adjustments have minimal impact on consumers.
  2) Recent food safety recalls adversely affect domestic and foreign demand by 2.6%.
  3) Consumer influence by health articles linking fat and heart disease cut demand by 9%.
  4) The media frenzy about low carbohydrate diets boosted beef demand by 2%.
  5) Convenience of preparation benefits poultry and pork, but hurts beef demand.
• So, what should the beef industry do to bolster demand? Researchers decided:
  1) Conduct research that identifies positive impacts from consumption of beef.
  2) Present those findings to health professionals, nutritionists, and consumers.
  3) Develop production or processing techniques to enhance beef nutritional qualities.
• Is the US beef herd overestimated? That is possible say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, who say if that is correct, there is no further need to reduce the cow herd further. They say those who doubt USDA numbers believe the cut in the cow herd has been covered up by the speedup in marketings of steers and heifers by putting them on the market earlier, even though they had reached market weight. But Grimes and Plain side with USDA's statistics and the benchmark 2007 Ag Census.
• It is too early now, but it may be time to order legume seed for bolstering pasture vitality with the help of frost seeding. The seed depends on freezing and thawing for soil incorporation along with later winter moisture. IL crop specialist Jim Morrison says medium red clover provides the best success but requires inoculation and proper pH.
• Taking a soil test will allow you to make educated decisions on your farm rather than adding fertilizer that is not needed, particularly on pastures, says KY forage specialist Ray Smith. In pastures approximately 80% of the nutrients consumed in the forage are returned to the pasture in the manure and urine. Therefore, fertilizer requirements on pasture are lower than for hayfields, but this is only true in well-managed rotationally grazed pastures where manure and urine are equally distributed throughout the pasture.
• Has your poly tank failed and created a catastrophe? They are versatile and tough, but failure is a potential, so inspection and maintenance need to be part of your routine in using them. Get poly advice at: http://www.btny.purdue.edu/Pubs/PPP/PPP-77.pdf .
• Have you lost a poly tank while traveling down the roadway? Securing a poly tank is not hard, but must be done correctly because lost cargo is not easy to reload on a truck or trailer. There are governmental requirements for securing loads, including poly tanks. Get the proper techniques at: http://www.btny.purdue.edu/Pubs/PPP/PPP-75.pdf .

• The South American soybean crop has deteriorated from dry weather says IL Extension marketing specialist Darrel Good and the result will be cuts in exports and ending stocks. Argentine production will be down 150 to 200 mil. bu. from January, and Brazilian beans will be down 75 mil. bu., but without much impact on expected export business. In the meantime, he says US soybean exports have been strong, helped by Chinese demand.
• Argentine corn production, most of which is exported, will be reduced from 590 mil. bu. last year to 355 mil. bu. this year. Brazilian corn production is expected to be 15% down from the 2 bil. bu. crop last year. US corn exports have picked up slightly, but Darrel Good says shipments lag behind the pace needed to reach USDA projections. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/020909.html .
• USDA's February Crop Report held few changes, says Kansas State specialist Mike Woolverton. Despite trade expectations for adjustments in the corn balance sheet, USDA left the January numbers in place. Woolverton speculates that the lack of change in ethanol demand reflects USDA's thinking that better times are ahead for ethanol refiners.
• The strength in soybean exports helped USDA push soybean carryover down to 210 mil. bu. at the end of the current marketing year. Woolverton says USDA might have dropped the carryout to 205 if the domestic crush had been more robust. The lower ending stocks pushed upward the USDA price range to $8.75 to $9.75 per bushel. Read more at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Kansas State's Woolverton says planting decision time is near, but wet fields in the Eastern Cornbelt may delay fieldwork, giving producers more time to decide. He says the world weather impact may cause some price bullishness that may offer good selling opportunities, but the harvest soybean to corn price ratio is at 2.23, under the long term ratio of 2.3. The next report on March 11 may give more guidance for decision making.
• The La Nina weather pattern is still waffling says meteorologist Elwynn Taylor at Iowa State, who advises that it needs to be watched closely because we are nearing the end of the cycle that could bring a drought. He's not predicting one, but says 23 years is the record long gap between major droughts and 23 years after 1988 is 2012.
• Elwynn Taylor also advises farmers to watch the weather maps for precipitation in Arkansas beginning February 15. He says if the next 45 days are wet, there is an 80% chance at lease that the planting season will be wet. But he says if Arkansas is dry for the next month and a half, the chance for a dry planting season is also at least 80%.
• Climate extremes are often blamed on global warming says KY soybean specialist D.B. Egli, but he says every farmer knows there is a lot of variation in the weather, and he wondered if global warming will affect corn and soybean yields this year. His weather station at Henderson, KY, indicated summer rainfall in the past 31 years ranged from 5 in. to 15 in. and high temperatures ranged from 94 degrees in 1980 to 84 degrees in 2004. He says the 31 years of records don't show any evidence of warmer, wetter, or drier.
• Is your corn still in good condition? Iowa State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh asks because last fall's soft, wet corn has only half the storage life as normal #2 corn. Elevators and farmers who stored 24% moisture corn, but kept it below 30F with aeration, should have good quality corn. But he says unaerated bins and piles may be spoiled. He says the active period for grain spoilage begins in mid to late February.
• Hurburgh says corn over 17% which cannot be maintained below 30F has to be dried or sold because it will spoil rapidly. And he says ethanol plants will reject mold damage, as should livestock feeders because of the potential for mycotoxins. He says the bottom line is act now to check the quality, and either dry the crop or move it out of storage.
• Crop insurance premiums and indemnities reached record highs last year and could be duplicated this year says Iowa State economist William Edwards. He says calculate your needs carefully because high input prices and lower indemnity prices means you will have to choose a higher percentage level of coverage to protect production costs.
• The Biotech Yield Endorsement which had limited availability in 2008 has been extended to other Cornbelt states, and not only covers YieldGard, but also Herculex and Agrisure genetics. Discounts averaged 13% or $3 last year if 75% of your insurance unit was planted to eligible hybrids. However county-level GRIP and GRP is not eligible.
• USDA subsidies have been changed for some crop insurance policies which may cause you to adjust your decisions on coverage. William Edwards at Iowa State says whole farm and enterprise units used to have lower premiums than basic and optional units. For 2009 they will have the same dollar value subsidy, which will be 55% for basic units, 77% for enterprise units, and 80% for whole farm units when selecting 75% coverage.
• Hog producers who have balanced their books are finding they averaged $47.85 per cwt in 2008, according to an IL Extension study of hundreds of farm records. Economist Dale Lattz said feed costs averaged about $38.75 per cwt, and non feed costs were $19.70, with total costs of production at $58.45. He is expecting production costs to drop during 2009, and says breakeven prices may be seen, depending on corn and bean prices.
• If you are cutting back on pork production, MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says keep going. With pork demand down 3.5% last year, the weaker demand and high feed prices means the hog herd needs to be reduced more than it has been. Grimes says there is a need to cut the breeding herd at least 5% and maybe 10% if demand remains weak.
• Milk prices are in the tank and IL Extension's Mike Hutjens says the reason is the recession here and abroad, the strong dollar, fewer meals eaten away from home and a decline in dairy exports. Compared to the $19 per cwt last November, Hutjens says the price of raw milk by the end of February will probably be in the neighborhood of $13.
• Dairy managers should consider several strategies says Hutjens, including the use of by-product feeds to cut feed costs by 9 cents per pound, maintain milk yield, increase quality premiums, and sign up for the MILC program to get $1.20-$1.50 more per cwt.
• A soybean fungicide application paid off 55% of the time in 2008 and 40% of the time in 2007 says IL Extension pathologist Carl Bradley. That is based on contracted price, and the increased yield needed to break even from the fungicide cost. Bradley says 2008 yields were –8 to +12 bu. compared to control plots, with the average at 2.6 bu./A.
• Bradley's guide for application indicates a higher risk for fungus when planting back to back bean crops, susceptibility of the soybean variety to frogeye leaf spot, increases in wet and humid weather, and when you are not monitoring for crop diseases.
• If your fields are typically wet like many in 2009, some nitrogen application research at Iowa State may be valuable. Using a wet research plot, Agronomist John Sawyer reports, "The fall timing resulted in a yield increase to the highest applied N rate (200 lb N/acre), but the spring/sidedress response had an economic optimum rate at 173 lb N/acre. With the wet spring/early summer conditions, the fall application was apparently more at risk of loss than the spring application. However, due to loss of soil-derived nitrate with the wet conditions, the overall N fertilization requirement was also increased."
• Killing weeds under 4" should be your goal if you want to maximize corn yield, says WI weed scientist Chris Boerboom, but he adds, that does not seem to be happening. He says a 2008 survey found over 75% of fields receiving glyphosate had an average weed height of 6", which meant some weeds were well over that height, and cutting yield.
• Research on corn yield loss from weeds, indicates weeds more than 6" when sprayed have already eaten 6.5% of your corn yield. Boerboom bases that calculation on 150 bu. corn at a $4 price, which he says means a loss of $39 in profits. Read his newsletter: http://ipcm.wisc.edu/WCMNews/tabid/53/EntryId/668/Defeating-Weeds-in-Corn.aspx

You'll need your best binoculars to see 10 years ahead, but that is what the USDA's Office of the Chief Economist reported this week, in its Agricultural Projections to 2018:
1) Prospects for agricultural will depend on the global economy and the US recession.
2) Over the next several years, livestock will continue to adjust to higher feed prices.
3) The global ag economy will continue to respond to US and EU demand for biofuels.
4) US ethanol refining will slow, but demand will remain high, and affect farm prices.
5) Expansion of EU bio-diesel raises demand for vegetable oils in global markets.
6) Steady economic gains support increases in consumption, trade, and prices.
7) Net farm income will decline from the recent highs, but will remain strong.
8) US retail food prices rise more than inflation through 2011, then fade lower.

During the past few years, producers have seen seed costs rise to record levels. Last summer's record crop prices no doubt led seed companies to believe producer incomes would allow these higher prices. However we've seen corn prices retreat almost 50% from those summer highs. And incomes based upon these lower prices just don't allow for much in the way of input price increases. Consequentially, we've seen a retreat of seed prices in many instances.

Producers are investigating any and all ways in which to improve efficiencies. And seeding rates are one of those concerns. In the Midwest over the past few years, there have been several studies to examine soybean seeding rates. And they've all led to the same conclusion- most producers overplant soybean seed, some by a great deal.

Eric Adee, at the U of I Monmouth Research Center ran a soybean seeding rate study for 3 years. He determined economic seeding rates based upon yield, soybean seed price and soybean selling price. These were seeding in 15" rows, using a pre-emerge herbicide, followed by one application of glyphosate (the key here is use of a pre-emerge herbicide to keep weed populations low). Stand counts ranged from 75,000-145,000 plants per acre, but yields only varied by 4 bushels/acre. These results are not much different than many other studies.

So, figuring economic seeding rates based upon seed cost and price received is a simple calculation. Using a seed cost of $40 per 150K seeds and a selling price of $9, the optimal final stand would be 114K plants. At a seed cost of $50 and selling price of $8, the optimal final stand would be 102K.

These are final stands, not seeding rates. You'll need to compensate for those seeds that don't germinate. You'll also need to use a pre-emerge herbicide (you should anyway to reduce weed resistance) to allow maximum yields by keeping weeds to a minimum in these stands.

Many people are anxiously awaiting county yield estimates from the Crop Reporting Service. Traditionally those yields have been published around the middle of February; however, this year they are not slated until March 2.

Indications are yields will be good with district yields already compiled. The 2008 state averages are 179 for corn and 46 for soybeans. The central crop reporting district is slated at 195 for corn and 51 for soybeans. My suspicions are (read this "best guess") Logan County will surpass the district averages. We'll look forward to the release of the county numbers in about three weeks.

• Ethanol throttled the 2007& 2008 corn market, now it put on the brakes. Marketing specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State says that is because of the shutdown in several ethanol plants. But the industry is still growing, and he says it should have exceeded 9 bil. gal. last year. He says the federal mandate is for 10.5 bil. gal. of ethanol this year. One industry leader recently estimated 2.7 bil. gal. of capacity is currently idled.
• Corn exports will fall 661 mil. bu. behind the export levels of last year and beans will fall 61 mil. Iowa State's Hart says the value of the dollar continues to be a problem for US exports. He says it will strengthen against most major currencies, except those of Japan and China, which are currently the top corn and bean export markets. More: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo020109.pdf
• Argentina is suffering the worst drought in the past 50 years, estimates Mike Woolverton at Kansas St., who says its government has estimated production with a 50% loss, and curtailed all wheat exports. He says the drought has cut 43% of soybean production in Paraguay, and reduced soybean yields 10% in southern Brazil.
• Woolverton says the Argentine drought and farmers' strike should show up in USDA's February 10 world supply and demand report. He says market speculators have begun building long positions as a result of the issues, and US farmers with stored crops may be major beneficiaries of the South American drought and political issues.
• US soybeans will be helped, since this is the time of year that global buyers turn to South America for soybeans, but the supply will be short and price will have to ration the supply, says Woolverton, adding that will become a dynamic in the acreage decision this year, but a soft demand from the recession will prevent any wild price moves.
• Focus on the demand, says Alan May at South Dakota State. "Consumption will continue. Demand has, and will likely continue to be, the key component in price direction. People still need food, livestock still need to be fed, and the ethanol industry will still need to buy corn to meet the demand for ethanol. The issue is the performance of demand in the months ahead and the corresponding production we will have in 2009." He says prepare to make sales when the opportunity arises and control input costs. Read Alan May's grain newsletters at: http://econ.sdstate.edu/Extension/CMA.htm .
• A weaker economy still wreaks havoc on fundamentals, says Mike Roberts at VA Tech.
  1) Any corn strength is limited by bearish speculators. He's pricing up to 30% new crop.
  2) Funds are adding to net bull soybean positions. He's pricing up to 40% of new crop.
  3) Funds have reduced net bear wheat positions. He's pricing up to 15% of the new crop.
• If you are uncertain about ACRE, IL Extension's Gary Schnitkey says the 30% cut in loan rates may be a moot point, since, "It is unlikely that prices will fall below national loan rates between now and the end of the Farm Bill in 2012. Hence, the chance of receiving LDPs is low under both the traditional and ACRE alternatives."
• If you are uncertain about ACRE, which will cut Counter-Cyclical payments by 20% for those signing up, Schnitkey says, "Trigger prices in 2009 are $2.35 for corn, $5.36 for soybeans, and $3.40 for wheat. The chances of receiving counter-cyclical payments are low because it is unlikely that commodity prices will average below trigger prices."
• If you are uncertain about ACRE, Schnitkey says, "ACRE will pay for corn in 32% of the years and average $17 per planted acre. For soybeans, ACRE will pay in 16% of the years and average $6.50 per planted acre. These average payments will vary across farms based on the farm's average yield relative to the state's average yield." Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/announcements/agrinews/Jan_2009/agrinews_Jan_2009.html .
• The national cattle inventory is 1.6% under January of 2008, with beef cows down substantially, lighter heifer retention, but a slight rise in the dairy herd. The national herd is 31.7 million, the least since 1963, and with heifer retention down 2%, the herd will continue to decline into next year says Iowa State livestock economist Shane Ellis.
• Shane Ellis says cattle feeders have started to push back on prices they are willing to pay to regain profitability. "Compounded by lower feeder cattle prices, there will continue to incentive for producers to reducer their herds to exit the business." Read his newsletter at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo020109.pdf
• Cattle numbers are down, yes, but Purdue's Chris Hurt says be patient on prices. "The USDA (Cattle on Feed) report will increase cattle prices in the short-run, but more central to a price turn around will be the perceived progress of the general economy. On that front, consumers are not likely to feel better about their budgets for several more months as unemployment continues to rise into the spring and summer."
• Hurt does not give much hope for a rapid recovery. "The improvement in the economy is still months away, and may well be late 2009 and 2010. This leaves the possibility that finished cattle prices only return to the mid-to higher $80s this spring with mid-$80s this summer. If so, prices might not move back above $90 until very late in 2009 and early 2010. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/020209.html .
• Consumer demand for meat is weak, according to MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They say 2008 pork demand was down 3.5%, beef demand was down 4.1% compared to 2007. Export-driven live hog demand is up 6%. They say consumer demand will remain weak in 2009, but fewer chicken supplies will help pork.
• Your New (crop) Year's resolution may need to be better weed control. IL Extension crop specialist Jim Morrison says herbicide resistant weeds need special attention:
  1) Regular field scouting can identify stands of weeds that just won't go away.
  2) Rotate herbicides, which work on different parts of weeds (site of action.)
  3) Combine mechanical weed control with herbicide applications.
  4) Clean tillage and harvest equipment regularly to prevent weed transfers.
• Weeds rob your nitrogen say Michigan St. specialists, who add that a 95% control can be achieved when weeds are 9 in. tall, but corn yields are cut by 25 bu. per acre. They say there is no yield loss when weeds are 4 in., but 12 in. weeds produce a 9% yield loss. In terms of nitrogen, the Maximum Return to Nitrogen (MRTN) rate was 96 lbs per acre when weeds were controlled at 4 inches, compared with an MRTN rate of 200 lbs per acre when weeds were controlled at 12 inches. Bigger weeds absorb more nitrogen.
• Your combine is too efficient and may not be leaving enough corn on the ground to sustain the cattle you turned out on the cornstalks. NE forage specialist Bruce Anderson says 4% of the corn was left in the field 10-15 years ago, but today it is about 1 lb. less grain per acre for every bushel harvested. He says cattle already need extra protein.
• OH corn yields were 5 bu. under trendline, but OSU agronomist Peter Thomison says they could have been worse. He says the wet spring and protracted dry spell hurt the crop, but he says if August had been blistering hot, which it was not, then corn yields would have been comparable to 2002 when the state average yield was a paltry 89 bu. Thomison also says Hurricane Ike clobbered corn stalks, causing widespread lodging.
• Does stacked trait corn yield better than non-GMO corn? Not really say Ohio St. agronomists, who note that 2/3 of the state last year was planted to transgenic corn and it is getting harder to get non-GMO corn. They say some farmers believe stacked traits are matched with high yield hybrids, but the agronomists say different genetic backgrounds respond differently to genes and there is no research indicating the stacking traits increase yield. Read their current C.O.R.N. newsletter at: http://corn.osu.edu/
• Your thoughts about the pros and cons of 2,4-D are being solicited by the US EPA which has been asked by the National Resources Defense Council to cancel the 2,4-D registration based on the fact the EPA cannot prove it does not harm anyone and human health effects were not all considered. Information about submitting comments is at: http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA-PEST/2008/December/Day-24/p30527.htm .
• "Question everything," say Michigan State fertility specialists in their latest newsletter, including the way you fertilize crops. They are strongly advocating soil tests, given the current prices. And they say if you take your own soil test, consider the soil compaction, and question if it may be limiting the crops ability to absorb water and nutrients.
• "The number of farms hit bottom, and is increasing slightly," says Greg Preston who heads up the NASS office in IN. He was describing the 2007 Ag Census released by USDA, which indicated the turnaround of a 60 year trend. With the ever-increasing age of farmers, Purdue's Kevin McNamara expects more land transitions in the future, including sales to other farmers, subdivisions of farms, and housing developments.