• Exports are a function of the dollar and Darrel Good says its value is now a function of the roiling financial markets. The IL marketing specialist says corn exports are behind 2007, but it is early in the marketing year. Since Sept. 1 export inspections have been 50% of last year and through Sept. 11 export commitments have been 60% of last year.
• Soybean exports are also lagging behind 2007 levels, but Darrel Good says unshipped sales exceed 2007 volumes. USDA expects a 13% drop in soybean exports for the marketing year, but the early picture shows a 9% increase. Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/092208.html .
• US grain exports will be competing against global production, which is expected to reach record levels in the current marketing year. For example, wheat production will be large enough to raise ending stocks for the first time in 4 years. However, wheat growing areas of Australia and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather conditions.
• Global coarse grain production is also noted by Extension's Jim Hilker at Michigan State. He says world coarse grain ending stocks in 2009 will be 3 MMT larger than once expected; and while the world corn production estimates have been lowered because of a smaller US crop, the world coarse grain situation looks bearish to the market.
• Hilker's observations on marketing first include a comparison of the Dec corn contract and the Dec light crude oil contract, which he says is a bit scary, then rhetorically asks, "But what do you expect when 25% of your corn crop is used as a competitor to oil?" He says don't carryover any old corn, and consider pricing new corn on sharp upswings in the price of oil. Hilker says the market is apparently willing to pay on-farm storage.
• Regarding soybeans, MSU's Hilker says given soybean production around the world and current ending stocks, the world will not be short on soybeans, assuming South America raises its expected crop. He says the market is willing to pay for on-farm soybean storage, but only into March. After then the spreads narrow and don't cover either storage or interest. He says watch for sharp price upswings to do further pricing.
• Michigan State's Jim Hilker says the wheat basis has problems with predictability. He suggests wheat producers sell cash, and buy futures if they thought the market would rise, or use a basis contract, which does the same, and is more profitable than paying for commercial storage. Hilker says CBOT officials have proposed more delivery points to solve the convergence issue between cash and futures, but he says it will not be solved until futures contracts force delivery. https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• More corn ear rots are showing up, (see the Sept. 19^th edition) and the fungi will grow while corn is in the field or even in the bin as long as moisture is at or above 18%. IL plant pathologist Suzanne Bissonnette says that may determine your priority of when to harvest, particularly if the infection is moderate and wet weather continues.
• Your variety of fungus will determine how dry the corn has to be. If you have diplodia and the corn will be in long term storage, 15-16% should be your target. If you have aspergillus, it will grow in 14-18% moisture and produce aflatoxin, which is not good.
• Make only one combine adjustment and evaluate its success before any other changes says Iowa State. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0923hanna.htm .
  1) With shorter beans, keep in mind that 90% of field losses are at the header.
  2) Each one inch of uncut bean stubble can result in a one bushel per acre yield loss.
  3) If beans are small, reduce cleaning fan speed to avoid blowing soybeans away.
  4) If sieve openings have been reduced, also reduce the airflow to compensate.
  5) Adjust deck plates over snapping rolls for predominant ear size to avoid kernel loss.
  6) If corn is lodged, keep snouts low, drive slower, and harvest "against the grain."
• Hurricane Ike's track through the eastern Cornbelt left many acres of downed corn, and OSU ag engineer Randall Reeder says that means harvest will be more stressful and longer than usual. He's concerned about tired and frustrated farmers ignoring safety:
  1) Find harvesting aids that specifically deal with downed corn.
  2) Before solving an in-field problem, turn off the combine first.
  3) Use any auto steering or guidance equipment available to reduce vision stress.
  4) Adjust the header to accommodate downed corn plants and broken stalks
  5) Tape safety reminders in the combine cab, take breaks, stretch, and drink water.
• Harvest may put you in a no-win situation when it comes to soil compaction. With wet soil and a late harvest, IL Extension's Duane Friend says many producers will take compaction as the lesser evil. If that happens, plant stress will show up next spring.
  1) Restrict trips to specific tracks or lanes. The second trip compacts less than the first.
  2) When unloading, use the combine wheel track on the prior round in the field.
  3) Never cross the field diagonally, even though that may be the shortest distance.
  4) If a semi cannot be parked on the road, at the least, keep them on the headland.
  5) Tires that are over inflated will increase the compaction of the soil.
  6) Soil compaction is cured by wetting/drying/freezing/thawing and just takes time.
  7) Only well-defined compacted layers 4+ inches down are candidates for sub-soiling.
• Alfalfa cuttings have been delayed all year, and you may have one more cutting, but will that interfere with the fall rest period? Iowa St. forage specialist Steve Barnhart says that will continue for 6-10 more weeks. http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/showitem.php?id=101 .
  1) If you don't need the hay, leave it in the field and don't graze in fall or winter.
  2) If you need the hay, wait for a killing freeze to cut it, and leave 4-5 inch stubble.
  3) Cutting hay now causes the plant to re-grow, unnecessarily using its stored reserves.
• When your crops are out, get a soil test and set a date for your quadrennial limestone application. Row crops like a pH of 6.0, and the pH should be 6.5 to 7.0 for alfalfa and clover. It also enhances nitrogen fixation and improves soil structure, and if being spread on a field that will be planted to a legume, spread 6 months ahead for good soil reaction.
• A new crop of winter annual weeds will be germinating in the next couple months, and may be more numerous than last year. Reductions in use of pre-emergent herbicides, a shift to post-emergent use of glyphosate, primarily, and increased no-till practices have spawned the weed crop that Dad never saw. Visit this resource to brush up on winter annuals: http://extension.missouri.edu/explorepdf/regpubs/ncr614.pdf .
  1) Dandelions, marestail, henbit, and pennycress are harder to control in the spring.
  2) If soil moisture is short, control of winter annuals saves moisture for the spring.
  3) Fall herbicide applications can save time in the spring and allow timely planting.
• With late maturing soybeans, wheat will be a late planted crop. IL Extension's Mike Roegge says that means fewer fall tillers will develop and he suggests increasing the seeding rate. He says for each week that seeding is delayed beyond the Hessian fly free date, the seeding rate should be increased 10%. 20-30 lbs of N is recommended also.
• Speaking of Hessian flies, the purpose of planting wheat after the date for your latitude, is to prevent females from laying a full complement of eggs. If wheat has not germinated, the Hessian fly will not have the opportunity for larvae to hatch and survive. They live at the base of the plant, remove plant juices, and the wheat will fail to tiller.
• When harvesting corn stover for ethanol production, your nitrogen bill goes down. That is the thought of MN agronomist Jeff Coulter, who says when 50% to 100% of the residue is removed from continuous corn crops, the optimum N rate is cut 13%. Coulter says less N is needed for the next year because corn residue immobilizes the N and promotes tie up of N by microorganisms in the soil. Read his fact sheet on residue harvesting at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2008/08MNCN28.html .
• Export demand continues to support pork prices where they are. MO economist Glenn Grimes says the value of pork exports per hog slaughtered in Jan-July was $35.89 per head, and that is up 46% from 2007. Grimes says the net exports caused the 9% increase in demand for live hogs for Jan- July, while US consumer demand for pork dropped 4%.
• On the issue of production costs, Grimes and cohort Ron Plain say the 2007-08 marketing year price for corn was $4.20, but that will rise in 2008-09 to a range of $5-$6 according to USDA. The livestock economists say that will increase the cost of hog production by $4-$9 per cwt in the coming year, compared to the past 12 months. For cattle producers they say the higher cost of corn will add $48-$108 per head cost.
• If your farm kid has a desire to be an ag engineer, Cornbelt Land Grant Universities are among the tops says US News & World Report. Illinois is best for the third consecutive year. Iowa St. is #4, Purdue is tied for #5, and Ohio St. & Penn St. are tied at #8.

After the rains of the past few weeks, many are wondering if the soil will ever dry enough to harvest this years crop. There just isn't a great deal of evaporation nor will crops be taking a lot out of the soil to allow drying to occur. Wheat producers are even more concerned since most of that crop is sowed after soybean, and although May planted soybeans are close to mature, the June planted still have quite a bit of pod fill to go yet.

If wheat growers haven't yet placed a seed order, time is of the essence. Wheat varieties are numerous. Utilizing yield trials to determine varieties gives better results. The U of I variety trials are located at this address: http://vt.cropsci.uiuc.edu/wheat.html

The research conducted in IL has shown wheat sown after soybean has a higher yield versus after corn. This is due to better stands behind beans as well as less disease potential. Tillage has increased yield compared to no till wheat after soybean, but probably not to the extent that the extra cost of tillage would outweigh the better yield. However, wheat planted after corn has benefited from a tillage trip.

Wheat seed treated with an insecticide seed treatment have generally yielded positive results at the Orr Research Center. And the further you head south in IL the more positive the results.

Application of 20-30# of nitrogen in the fall is recommend. 150# of DAP would provide this, as well as provide much needed phosphorus. 50# of 0-0-60 would also be required. Both these application rates are based upon the amounts of fertility 75 bushels of wheat would remove from the field. If the soil is low in either nutrient, then additional fertilizer should be added. Remaining nitrogen should be applied in the spring, in a single application.

The fly free date for our area is approximately Oct. 1^{st (note the Logan County dates are September 29 on the north and range to October 3 in the south)}. Seeding at or close to that date would be recommend. 1.2- 1.4 million seeds per acre would be the goal. Consult the seed tag to determine seeds per pound on the variety you are seeding to determine pounds per acre required to achieve this population.

Since the soybean crop needs to be harvested prior to wheat seeding, delayed seeding will be the norm this year. Because delayed seeded usually results in fewer fall tillers that develop, increased seeding rates should be considered. Tillers are what produce seed heads, and you don't want to compromise yield. For each week that seeding is delayed after the fly free date, increase the seeding rate by 10%.

I am not sure how much more rain to expect this season, but I have had enough. I also know that diseases love the wet weather. This season we had a wet July, a dry August, and now a very wet September. The wet July weather that occurred after and during the corn silk stage has probably contributed to the development of Diplodia ear rot that has been found in corn fields since late August. Planting corn after corn and minimum tillage also favors development of this disease, because the organism causing disease survives in corn stalks left on the field from the previous year.

Often the fungus causing Diplodia ear rot will infect the ear just after flowering which causes the husk and the ear leaf to appear bleached and brown, compared to the normal green color of the remaining leaves. If the husk leaves are pulled back to expose the ear and kernels, the ear may appear shrunken and gray-brown in color, while infected kernels will be surrounded by a dense mass of white fungus that fuses the kernels to the husk leaves. The white moldy growth often begins at the bottom of the ear, and if infection occurred early could cover the entire ear or only a portion of the ear if infection happened later. As the season progresses, the white moldy growth will turn gray-brown and small, round, black specks (fungal fruiting bodies) will form scattered about on the husk and kernels.

While the fungus causing Diplodia ear rot will not produce a toxin in the grain, like ear rots caused by Fusarium or Aspergillus fungi, it will cause the grain to be light weight, shriveled, and have lower nutritional value for livestock. Usually this ear rot is not a problem in stored grain, but infected grain should be dried to below 15% moisture to prevent growth by this fungus in storage. A good description and photos of ear rots can be found in the 2007 issue, volume number 21, article 3 of The Bulletin at http://ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin.

Diplodia is not as common as other ear rots, but in wet years like this one, it can be a problem. Management options are limited but include crop rotation and selecting less susceptible hybrids for next year. Talk with your seed dealer, as corn hybrids differ in their susceptibility to Diplodia.

The wet, cool weather poses other harvest concerns, such as lodging of corn in wet soil, being able to get equipment into the wet fields, and the ability of grain to mature and dry. Along with these concerns, I suggest being vigilant about scouting for stalk rots. If Diplodia ear rot is present, this same organism may show up in the stalks as well. The base of corn stalk with Diplodia stalk rot will have small, black specks embedded in the plant tissue. There will be no pink color and the black specks will not rub off as with Gibberella stalk rot. White mold like that seen on the ear kernels may be found in lower stalks but not always, and splitting the stalk in half may reveal internal shredded plant tissue with small, black specks (fungal fruiting bodies).

Effective last fall, the State of Illinois requires many motor carriers to comply with the Unified Carrier Registration Act. The program replaced the State Registration System in Illinois, and requires all farmers and for-hire motor carriers to register. There is an annual registration fee for this program, and it is based on the number of carriers in your fleet.

Many farmers are caught in the requirements of the program because of the interstate commerce aspect of grain sales. Even delivered to a local elevator, grain then moved to a river terminal for export or shipped to another state for livestock feeding makes the grain sale an interstate commerce transaction.

There are two criteria that define whether the vehicle needs to be registered. One is bashed on weight. If the vehicle combination is over 10,000 pounds it is considered a commercial vehicle, regardless of whether it is for-hire. The second test is the interstate commerce part which we have already covered. This program works in concert with USDOT number registration, and the USDOT number is required before application.

Illinois Farm Bureau has put together a good question and answer document on the program, from which I will try to quote with some accuracy. There is no farm exemption from this program. The program is basically aimed at safety, and fees are used to help pay for policing the program. Payment of USDOT and UCR fees may be a part of the vehicle safety inspection.

The class of license plate on a vehicle doesn't have anything to do with the definition of commercial. If the GVWR, or combination vehicle in the case of a truck and trailer, is over 10,000 pounds it is considered a commercial vehicle. The USDOT number does not cost anything, but the UCR number does. The UCR fees are $39 for 0-2 vehicles, $116 for 3-5 vehicles, $231 for 6-20 vehicles, and $806 for 21-100 vehicles.

• USDA's September Crop Report is scheduled for release this morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The crop estimates will be posted at: www.farmgate.uiuc.edu , and also:
  1) Supply and demand balance sheet: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
  2) NASS http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046
• The market is expecting an average of 153.3 bu. for corn, down from the 155 bu. estimate in Aug. Also anticipated for corn is total production at 12.152 bil. bu. and ending stocks for next Aug. at 1.056 bil. bu. down from USDA's 1.133 bil. in Aug.
• The market is expecting a 40.2 bu. per acre average yield for soybeans, compared to the 40.5 bu. average forecast by USDA in Aug. Also expected by the market is a 2.95 bil. bu. crop, with a 146 mil. bu. carryout next August, up from USDA's 135 mil. in Aug.
• Crop size for corn and beans tends to grow in the September Crop Report says Marketing Specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State. Corn production climbs 1% and bean production climbs 1.4%. He says the bigger swings have been in years with unusual weather, lead by 1988 and 1993 for corn and 2003 and 2004 for soybeans. He says, "Based on the 1993 and 2003 crop years, downward revisions in corn and soybean production are more likely given the late planting and flooding." See his charts at: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo090108.pdf#page=4
• Grain exports are headed south says IL Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, compared to the 2007-8 marketing year that may have recorded corn exports at 2.425 bil. bu. But USDA projects exports for the new corn crop at 2 bil. bu. for these reasons:
  1) Foreign grain production will be at record highs, resulting in fewer imports needed.
  2) The stronger dollar means US grain is more expensive in a slower global economy.
• Darrel Good also expects soybean exports to taper off this year for several reasons:
  1) Soybean exports of 1.145 bil. bu. this year will be 13% less or 1 bil. bu. in 2008-9.
  2) Chinese soybean imports that grew 23% last year will only grow 1.5% for 2008-9.
  3) Total world soybean trade will slow, and South American will export more.
  Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/090808.html .
• Grain stocks will be estimated by USDA at the end of the month, advises Jim Hilker at Michigan State. For corn he's expecting the Sept. 1 stocks to be 1.576 bil. or 12% of use. Hilker says exports and feed have been on target and he says carryout should be kept steady in the Sept. 12 Crop Report. https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
• Compare your state to NE, where ag economist Bruce Johnson says the build up of cash receipts has been "phenomenal." He says historically, livestock sales had been 60% of cash receipts, but with 2008 crop receipts double that of 2005, cash receipts from crops will surpass livestock. www.agecon.unl.edu/Cornhuskereconomics/2008/9-10-08.pdf
• Johnson projects NE farm income to be 21% more than 2007 and 90% higher than the previous 10 year average. But he says that is not the case for everyone, since there is a great disparity between crop and livestock producers. He calculates, "The crop sector is staged to reap an additional $1.5 billion of net farm income in 2008, while the livestock sector may well experience a $750 million reduction in net earnings compared to 2007."
• "Markets don't like profits," says MO economist Ray Massey, and ethanol has not only resulted in corn profits, but has caused market volatility and price risk. Massey says profits will go to zero because of increases for crop input prices. "Profits will go toward zero first for ethanol producers, then for crop producers, and eventually for input suppliers and landowners, says Massey, who predicted "a painful transition."
• With high market volatility, vigilant risk management is crucial says Missouri's Massey, and farmers need to keep watch of their financial strength. He says your current ratio of assets to debt should be 1.5 to 2.0 or better. That is $1 of debt for $2 of assets. He also recommended doubling your cash reserves, since production cost has doubled.
• Warm and sunny weather will speed corn dry down and cut your drying costs, although the late planting may mean you'll have drying charges. Peter Thomison at Ohio State says corn will dry 3/4 to 1% per day from mid to late September, but that slows to a rate of 1/2 to 3/4% per day going into October, and is negligible by late November.
• Thomison says count your growing degree days. "Generally, it takes 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25 to 20% requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture. In September we average about 10 to15 GDDs per day. In October (as weather cools) the rate drops to 5 to 10 GDDs per day."
• If you are harvesting corn for dry grain storage, OSU's Thomison says that should begin at 23% to 25% moisture, since waiting until 20% can mean yield losses from stalk lodging, ear rots, and insect feeding damage. The loss of one normal-sized ear every 100 feet of row means a loss of one bushel per acre, which is also two kernels per square foot.
• Use harvest to predict your 2009 weed crop suggests Iowa State's Michael Owen who says use of a single herbicide will quickly allow development of resistant weeds. Also:
  1) Weeds follow tillage patterns and the presence of live weeds indicates resistance.
  2) Once a weed problem is recognized it is usually too late to resolve the problem.
  3) Field ponds that produced only a crop of weeds will have major weeds in 2009.
  4) Field ponds may also warrant additional weed control tactics and separate management
  5) Plan to use an early pre-plant herbicide next year on 2008 problem areas.
• What are your soybean plans for 2009, Roundup Ready beans or conventional beans? MO agronomist Grover Shannon says the tripling of glyphosate prices are causing more farmers to return to a conventional system, using comparatively yielding soybeans, but with a cheaper cost of weed control, and less likelihood of glyphosate resistance. And Shannon says the going price for non-GMO soybeans is about $1 over CBOT prices.
• Scout soybeans for pod damage by bean leaf beetles. Holes will allow disease entry that will cause discolored, moldy, shriveled, or disease beans that otherwise look healthy.
• Compare your state to OH, where OSU agronomists say nearly every farm in Ohio has a field or two that could benefit from planting wheat by reducing problems associated with the continuous production of corn and soybeans. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#D
  1) Select the highest yielding variety, with resistance to multiple diseases and fungi.
  2) Plant in the first 10 days after the fly free date and avoid aphid-borne BYDV.
  3) Use the optimum seeding rate between 1.2 and 1.6 mil. seeds per acre.
  4) Plant seeds 1.5 in. deep, which is critical for tiller development and winter survival.
  5) Apply 20-30 lbs of nitrogen per acre at planting to enhance tiller development.
• High corn prices mean changes in cattle feeding. Nebraska's Darrel Mark says as the feeding cost of gain has doubled in the past two years, there is more incentive to background calves during the winter and following summer on forages and delay placing the cattle on feed until they are long yearlings at the end of the summer grazing season. But he says heavy calves weaned in the fall may have overweight carcasses.
• If you are evaluating retained ownership in the fall calf crop, Mark says decide whether to put them on feed then or wait until they are yearlings next fall. He says yearlings could generate a $69 return per head, compared to $2 return for calves that are fed to be sold in May 2009. Read: http://www.lmic.info/memberspublic/InTheCattleMarket.html .
• Overseas demand for pork, combined with the low value of the dollar, had been keeping the pork market active, but MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says the information won't surface until another month or two, but the action of the market in the past 30 days suggests a slowdown in the phenomenal growth in pork exports.
• Farm Safety Week begins Sept. 21, and is designed to call attention to the hundreds of Cornbelt accidents involving slow moving farm equipment, particularly during the harvest season. Many states have requirements for highly reflective SMV placards, along with strong headlights and plenty of red lights that indicate the width of the equipment.

Farmers should also take steps toward safer operations on their own farm, says IL safety specialist Bob Aherin, since a harvest mishap can mean a $300/day loss. Read more:
1) Your pre-harvest checklist should include all safety lights and clean placards.
2) Ensure ladders and steps are sturdy, and the header is blocked if working underneath.
3) Keep combines free of dust, check for leaky fuel lines and hoses, have an extinguisher.
4) Take breaks every two hours or so, to stretch and avoid injury, and drink water.
5) Keep in radio or telephone communication with family members.