• USDA's August Crop Report indicated more corn than the market anticipated at 12.3 bil. bu., but the rest of the world is producing a good crop as well. IL Extension's Darrel Good says, "Production prospects have declined for Argentina, but improved for Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and the Ukraine. Coarse grain production outside the US is forecast at a record 760.33 MMT, nearly 5% larger than last year's crop."
• Darrel Good says the same is true for soybeans. "Soybean production in Brazil in 2009 is forecast at 2.3 bil. bu., 55 mil. less than forecast last month but 55 mil. more than produced this year. For Argentina, production is forecast at 1.82 bil. bu., 55 mil. more than forecast in July and 110 mil. more than the 2008 harvest." Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/081208.html .
• What is your guess of futures prices on future dates? Extension economists have submitted their estimates for a wide range of commodities, abbreviated here:
  1) Corn: 12/1/08-$6.63. 3/2/09-$7.16. 6/30/09-$6.89
  2) Beans: 12/1/08-$14.62. 3/2/09-$15.31. 6/30/09-$15.26
  3) Wheat: 12/1/08-$8.60. 3/2/09-$8.68. 6/30/09-$7.98
• Will weather be normal for the rest of the growing season? Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says USDA crop estimates do not consider weather abnormalities, and he says, "The possibility of adversely hot temperatures during the next 4 weeks constitutes the very real risk that the US corn yield could fall below the trend (150.6BPA)."
• Elwynn Taylor says, "Historically crop condition observations become meaningful after mid-August. The 2008 crop to date has persistently scored better than average for the Cornbelt in general. When more than 50% of the crop is rated good to excellent the anticipated yield exceeds the trend. The current corn condition is 67% good-excellent."
• If it is August, expect August weather says meteorologist Jim Noel at Ohio State. "The overall pattern has shifted to near normal temperatures and below normal rainfall and this is expected to continue for the rest of August and possibly into September now. After this week of below normal temperatures and rainfall, temperatures will return to near normal, but rainfall should continue below normal though a few areas may get normal rainfall."
• Soybean aphids have become a serious problem in North and South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, Minnesota, northern Iowa, and western Wisconsin where nearly all fields have been sprayed, some requiring 2 applications. Entomologists are watching the expansion of the outbreak, which could include northwestern Illinois.
• Should you spray aphids? IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey says that depends upon the presence or absence of predator insects, and the number of alatoid nymphs, which have broader shoulders and will develop wings and fly away. Scout for the 250 aphid threshold, and read more at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1018
• Illinois soybean fields are beginning to show evidence of Sudden Death Syndrome, caused by fusarium. Yellow flecks on the leaves appear between the veins, then the leaf tissue dies with the veins remaining green. Roots are already deteriorating from the fusarium toxin that moves upward in the plant. Management includes variety selection with fusarium resistance, planting late, minimal soil compaction, and lack of SCN.
• At mid-August barely half of the soybean crop is setting pods says USDA, and some beans have yet to start blooming. Extension's Emerson Nafziger says, "The lack of warm night temperatures over an extended number of days might be the cause. In any case, plants with few or no flowers are a sign of a crop that is likely to have problems reaching maturity before cool weather starts to limit the crop's ability to fill seeds."
• Nafziger says the soybean plant knows how many pods it can support and aborts the rest. "This is one of the reasons why Kip Cullers of southwestern Missouri, who has set the yield record for irrigated soybeans, focuses on ways to retain pods on the plant. Preventing drought stress through irrigation is certainly the most consistent way to do this. Mr. Cullers also applies fungicides and micronutrients, and he supplements fixed nitrogen with N from poultry litter, in an attempt to maximize pod numbers."
• Late planted beans and insufficient temperatures present a serious challenge to soybeans this year, says Nafziger. He says the only way to exceed 42 bushels is for above normal temperatures in September with adequate soil moisture. But he says if August temperatures spill into September, the signs are not very positive for soybean yields.
• If your soybeans are small and you wonder if they would benefit from a foliar fertilizer; IL Extension's Fabian Fernandez says a lot of research has been done, and the chance of getting a good yield response is very limited. Even with a yield response, the application will not be cost effective. More: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1021 .
• Yellow leaves and stunted ears may also signal visitors to your cornfield. Iowa State specialist Greg Tylka says now is the time to sample the soil around corn roots for corn nematodes. Collect 20 soil cores about 12-inches deep and several root balls from corn stalks with symptoms. Contact university plant clinics about submitting soil for testing.
• Non-GMO cornfields may be hosting the second generation of corn borers, so watch for egg masses nearest the ear. Once the eggs get a black spot the larvae will soon hatch and that starts a 10 day calendar for decision on a rescue treatment. To assist in the decision whether to spray, visit: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/decision/corn_borer_second.html .
• Flooded acres, where no crops were produced this year, need to be managed say Iowa State soil scientists. The lack of crops means the lack of beneficial organisms ready for next year. They recommend a cover crop, such as oats, rye, or winter wheat to generate the biological activity in the soil. Weeds can also work, but the downside is more weeds next year. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0811alkaisibarnhart.htm .
• Flooded acres also need fertility attention, and the Iowa State specialists recommend taking soil samples to determine the nutrient status, particularly phosphorus. They also say to avoid extensive tillage that might create additional compaction problems.
• Corn buyers were happy to see the 12.3 bil. bu. USDA crop estimate, notes NE livestock economist Darrel Mark, "Livestock feeders and other corn buyers found some welcomed news in the report as USDA lowered its marketing year price forecast by $0.60/bu." Mark warns that the crop will be vulnerable to an early frost, "So, livestock feeders should continue to watch the corn market carefully for signs of a potential bottom."
• 2009 may mean more red ink for pork producers, if Extension economists are correct about pork production and prices. MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain say the survey predicts third quarter 2008 51-52% lean live hogs to average $52.40 per cwt, fourth quarter $48.36, first quarter 2009 $51.61 per cwt, second quarter $58.46, third quarter $60.25 and fourth quarter 2009 $57.01. The 2009 average price is $56.88.
• Grimes and Plain in their weekly newsletter report, "Based on these forecasts, hog producers that cannot handle more risk should take a long hard look at what the lean hog futures contract is now offering for hedge opportunities. If the above forecasts turn out to be what happens, and they look realistic with current information, hog producers on average will lose money through much of 2009." The same survey predicted corn and soybean meal prices, putting the average breakeven price in the low $60 range.
• 2009 may mean less red ink for cattle producers. The Extension economists survey of cattle futures predicted third quarter 2008 $96.55 per cwt, fourth quarter $100.42 per cwt, first quarter 2009 $100.36 per cwt, $103.16 for the second quarter of 2009, $98.72 per cwt for the third quarter and $102.72 per cwt for the fourth quarter of 2009.
• Grimes and Plain in their weekly newsletter report, "Their forecasts indicate the current live cattle futures should be sold by cattle feeders. Even with higher feed prices, these price levels are likely to hold the cattle herd close to current levels. In other words, unless we have a drought in beef cow country, the herd is not likely to reduce very fast at this price level for feeder cattle." Read more at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull2c.htm .
• Use of miscanthus instead of switchgrass would minimize cropland used for biofuels says IL miscanthus researcher Stephen Long. Ethanol production at current policy goals would require 25% of US cropland planted in switchgrass, but only 9.3% of US cropland if planted to miscanthus. He says it produces 2.5 times the ethanol per acre vs. corn.
• One missing kernel per row at the cob tip is a 5 bu. loss says Purdue's Bob Nielsen. Multiply 1 kernel by 16 rows by 30,000 population, divide by 90,000 kernels per bu.

Area soybean fields have been showing some symptoms of sudden death syndrome for about a week, but symptoms become more noticeable by the day. Following is a press release describing the disease.

Soybean fields are showing classic foliar symptoms of yellowing and browning between green leaf veins. This is usually the foliar symptom associated with sudden death syndrome (SDS) of soybean. However, this foliar symptom is also characteristic of brown stem rot (BSR) and stem canker diseases in soybean. According to Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing, Extension Specialist for Crop Systems, with University of Illinois Extension, you have to remember to look at and split open the stems and roots before determining if the foliar symptoms are caused by the pathogen causing SDS or by those causing BSR or stem canker. In some years, plants with these pathogens may not even develop leaf symptoms.

Ortiz-Ribbing, says," I just looked at soybean plants this morning having classic foliar symptoms, but when I split open the stems and root systems there was browning to indicate the disease was probably not sudden death (SDS) but brown stem rot (BSR)."

How you can tell the difference? Look inside. Plants with BSR may have reddish-brown discoloration of the vascular system and pith of the roots, crown, and also the stem above the soil line, often appearing at the leaf nodes. The vascular browning becomes more continuous as susceptible plants mature. Plants with SDS have a gray-brown discoloration but the pith is white.

Some uniform reddish-brown vascular discoloration can occur with SDS but without a streaking pattern. Plants with stem canker can also be confused with SDS, however, soybeans with stem canker have sunken reddish-brown cankers on the lower stem and plants with SDS do not have cankers. In addition, plants having SDS have will drop their leaflets prematurely leaving leaf petioles attached to the stem. Leaflets on soybean plants having BSR may have a tendency to remain on the plant.

Ortiz-Ribbing commented, "I would not expect to see SDS on soybeans planted in June, but those that were able to get planted in early May prior to or during the cool, wet weather, could be showing symptoms. Remember to check stems for cankers and split stem and roots to check for browning in addition to observing foliar symptoms."

• Wheat production was higher this year, and that means more wheat is available as a livestock feed, which will dampen the demand for higher priced corn. That is the observation of Purdue economist Chris Hurt, who notes a 70% increase in soft red winter wheat in the Cornbelt. Since wheat has a feed value that is 10% greater than corn, and wheat is currently selling for 10-20¢ less than corn, livestock feeders are moving there. Hurt says that dynamic caused USDA to cut its old crop corn use by 100 mil. bu.
• The soybean basis may improve says Hurt who recommends separating a forward contract into its two components. He says sell the futures or options with the help of a commodities advisor and broker. At that point, the basis remains unpriced, and he says the basis could improve 20-40¢ yet per bushel. Read more of Chris Hurt's newsletter at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=56 .
• Flooded and washed out fields are not excuses for non-delivery of contracted grain say a trio of IL ag law specialists. Their interpretation of the law is that a farmer can always satisfy a contract obligation by purchasing grain and delivering it to the elevator, instead of the grain lost to a flood. It is called "breach of contract," and their explanation is at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/legal/articles/ALTBs/ALTB_08-04/ALTB_08-04.pdf .
• Elevators can seek legal remedies, which the IL ag lawyers say includes the elevator buying grain to replace its commitments, then suing the farmer for the cost of the replacement grain, which could be at a premium to the original forward contract price.
• To avoid a breach of contract, farmers are advised to contact an attorney and negotiate a settlement which might be at a lesser price than the cost of the replacement grain. An effort to discuss the problems and offer a settlement may help avoid other incidental costs such as attorney fees for the elevator. Elevators may also have a variety of options.
• Diesel fuel prices certainly are not headed down anytime soon, says Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter. His projections of diesel fuel prices, based on NYMEX futures, indicate prices will be well above 2007 levels through the fall harvest season and into the spring. Read more: http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf
• If those diesel fuel costs prompt you to better manage your power equipment needs, NE Extension Specialist Tom Dorn has created a Fuel Cost Estimator, which allows you to calculate your per hour and per acre fuel costs for future projections. Find it at: http://hardin.osu.edu/agriculture/ag-newsletters/fuelcostestimator-2008.xls
• Cattle inventories continue to decline and that implies higher prices for cattle and less demand for feed grains. Purdue economist Chris Hurt says beef cow numbers have dropped about 1% during the year since calf prices are below the cost of production. Feedlot placements are down 9% and cattle on feed numbers are down 4% from last year.
• Chris Hurt says cattle prices would be even lower, were it not for improvements in trade and the low value of the dollar. Jan. thru May saw exports rise 34% from last year. He says with the weakness of the dollar, USDA is likely to revise its forecasts for beef trade. Exports had been projected at 18% and imports are down twice as much as expected.
• Beef prices will have strong fundamental support in the last two quarters of the year and Purdue's Hurt anticipates record high prices. He says that means a $97 average in the third quarter and a $100 average in the fourth quarter. That is a $95 average for the year and Hurt expects to see new record high cattle prices in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
• Strong cattle prices are also seen by Missouri economist Ron Plain, who says, "Feeder cattle prices, even though they are down from the high, are still quite strong and cow-calf producers have not been stressed financially enough to reduce the cow herd at a rapid rate. If the cow herd is as large as we believe, the 2008 calf crop will likely be down only slightly from a year earlier and cattle slaughter will be close to a year earlier for the next 18 months. Therefore, the prices for live cattle in the futures market look high to us."
• Soybean aphid populations are increasing and moving into fields across the Cornbelt. Entomologists in MN, SD, and IA all reported numbers at or above the 250 aphid per plant threshold for consideration of treatment. Higher temperatures will slow aphid multiplication. Specialists tell farmers to sample at least 20 plants per field. The bug experts say the 250 threshold should still be used despite increased soybean values.
• Will lady beetles show up in great enough numbers to control the aphids? That is an unanswered question, but natural enemies such as predator insects, rain, hail, and disease all slow the rate of population increase say MN Extension Specialists. Doubling of the population usually takes 4-5 days, but can take as few as 2-3 days if temperature conditions are cool enough, if predators are few, and on-going immigration.
• Western bean cutworm populations are increasing and moving across the Cornbelt, also. IL entomologist Kevin Steffey says the pest has not established itself as a threat to corn production in all areas, but the numbers being captured in traps are causing him to reconsider his perceptions. He says not only the numbers have to be significant, but farmers have to identify ear damage, and that it was caused by the bean cutworms.
• Scouting for western bean cutworms should be underway. Evidence of the pest is egg masses and small larvae on the upper leaves. Once the larvae hatch and work their way into the open end of the ear, then any effort at control with insecticides will not work. The economic threshold for treatment is 8% of the plants infested with eggs and larvae. Pictures of adults and eggs are at. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1003
• If your corn has pollinated then Japanese beetles will not be a threat, but that is not the case in soybeans. Japanese beetles will defoliate soybean leaves, and with high futures prices, it will be cost effective to treat them. The threshold is active defoliation of 10-15% of leaves at the R3 growth stage, which is the beginning pod stage.
• Reports are mixed about the prevalence of corn rootworms. Entomologists say the number of adults around the Midwest have been fairly low, indicating widespread mortality earlier in the year. But in some IL Extension test plots, where corn root balls were dug, washed, and analyzed larvae were sufficient to inflict serious injury in some areas. Farmers are urged to do the same to evaluate the results of their rootworm control.
• New insecticides are coming onto the market for 2008 use in field crops:
  1) Leverage 2.7 controls soybean aphids, Japanese beetles and bean leaf beetles in soybeans, but has a minimum of 45 day interval between spraying and harvest.
  2) Hero is labeled for both corn and beans and controls corn rootworm adults, Japanese beetles, and two-spotted spider mites. It has a 21 day pre-harvest interval.
  3) Cobalt can be applied to alfalfa, corn, and beans for a control of a variety of insects and two spotted spider mites. It has a pre-harvest interval of 30 days for soybeans.
• Wheat growers will face late planting in the fall, if their acreage is following corn and soybeans which were planted late and will mature late. IL Specialist Emerson Nafziger says interest in wheat should remain high this fall with the help of high prices. He says seed should be in good supply, given the cool spring and good yields from the 2008 crop.
• Corn planting dates dictate GDD requirements according to IN and OH research. For each day past May 1, about 6.5 fewer GDD were required from planting to maturity. That means a 2,700 GDD hybrid only needs 2,500 if planted at the end of May, about 2,400 if planted by June 15, and about 2,300 if planted by the end of June. Read more at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1007 .
• Cooler air penetrating the Cornbelt beginning in late August has a lot to do with corn reaching maturity says IL Specialist Emerson Nafziger. And he says the likelihood of frost increases at that point. Early frost occurs 1 year in 10 at the point where GDD accumulations have slowed to 10-12 per day. He says a 50% chance of frost occurs when GDD accumulations reach only 7-8 per day, which are about two weeks apart.
• Fast facts about corn will give you a reputation and add life to coffee shop discussions:
  1) Corn tassels produce between 2 million and 25 million pollen grains.
  2) Pollen grains are 80% water when shed and die when water content decreases to 40%.
  3) Up to 1000 ovules form per ear but we normally harvest 400 to 600 kernels per ear.
  4) As silks emerge, they grown as much as 1.5 inches per day.
  5) Unusually long silks are a symptom that the ear was not pollinated.
  6) Silks fall off fertilized ovules and remain attached to unfertilized ovules.
  7) 85% of grain yield is from kernel numbers per acre and 15% from kernel weight.