June 6, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• Grain consumption is generally predictable, but there will be a big question mark this year because of USDA's approval to open up the CRP for livestock feed use says IL Extension economist Darrel Good. He rhetorically asks, "How much will this additional forage production substitute for grain feeding in the last half of the 2008 calendar year?
• One calculation of the impact is to estimate the level of participation, amount of forage, and its nutrient content. Good says that statistic can be converted into grain replacement, which would work backward into grain stocks disappearance. Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060208.html
• A second calculation for potential grain use depends on the capacity to feed additional forage. While there are 95.5 million grain consuming animal units, only 4% are cattle. USDA estimates that 6.6 bil. bu. will be fed this year, and 5.7 bil. bu. next year, and 4% of that amount of grain is 250 mil. bu. with 125 mil. used in a 6 month feeding cycle.
• Darrel Good says clues about the potential for CRP forage to displace grain will come from the number of acres enrolled into the program, then the September and December grain stocks reports will indicate the impact of the decision to open the CRP for grazing. His expectation is for the CRP grazing program to have little implication for grain prices.
• Can you predict the price of corn this fall? Most say no, but options users know the probability that the market will reach a specific price when the option expires. IL economists Bruce Sherrick and Darrel Good say prices are predictable based on the implied price levels of options. There is a 10% probability the December option will expire below $4.11, and a nearly 28% chance it will expire above $7. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060208.html .
• The cold and wet weather appears to be coming to an end for Iowa State's Elwynn Taylor. He says the end is not clearly in sight, but is approaching. The air pressure is below La Nina levels and the odds of a severe drought have begun to diminish. "As of today the most likely national corn yield for 2008 is 148 BPA (up from 142 BPA). The rain pattern that has soaked the Cornbelt shows continued migration northward and will be positioned in northern Minnesota by June 21st if the trend is maintained."
• Begin a savings plan to pay for your diesel fuel over the coming year, if the calculations are correct by Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter. NYMEX futures tell him fall diesel prices will be 45-60% higher than last year. Spring 2009 diesel prices will be 8-25% higher than spring of 2008. http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf .
• You may typically be applying nitrogen at this time, but since this has not been a typical spring, Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger suggests letting the crop maturity and soil condition determine the timing of the N, rather than the calendar. Read his latest nitrogen thoughts: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=952 .
• Your typical nitrogen application may be much more than the corn can use, says Nafziger, because crop conditions this spring have reduced the yield potential, and may continue to reduce yield potential. In that case, Nafziger says no amount of nitrogen will make up the shortfall, and it is only a waste of money to apply an excess of nitrogen.
• Flooded fields are prevalent around the Cornbelt, some planted, and some are not. Iowa State agronomists say corn that is germinating can withstand 4 days of saturated or flooded soils. Seedlings with less than 6 leaves can withstand 4 days underwater if the temperature is less than the high 70's. Higher temperatures shorten the survival period.
• As floodwaters recede decisions about replanting need to be made, but the feasible dates for replanting are quickly vanishing. In the next few days, replanted corn may have a 90% yield potential, but if replanting is delayed beyond June 10, the yield potential is 70% or less. Consult: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/PM1885.pdf .
• Soybeans are jeopardized by wet fields says Palle Pedersen at Iowa State since there is significant yield loss after 6 days in the water, and greater yield loss with temperatures over 80 degrees. Saturated soils restrict oxygen to the soybean roots, and flooded soils allow a build up of toxins and carbon dioxide 50 times greater than in dry soils. Silt can also collect on leaves and restrict photosynthetic activity, unless rain washes it off.
• If your soybeans are emerging, what is their state of health? Iowa State specialists say poor stand establishment suggest disease pressure is quite high despite use of fungicides. Cool wet soils increased seedling diseases and contributed to the poor emergence rate.
• If your soybeans need replanting, seed treatments with fungicides are highly recommended by specialists, who say, "If Phyophthora causes seedling damping off, more severe damping off would happen in the replanted soybeans unless the seed is treated with the right fungicides or the weather turns dry after replanting." And the recommendation is for the use of even higher doses of fungicides on the replanted beans.
• If your soybeans are planted and up, they are susceptible to damage from bean leaf beetles, because they are starving and looking for food. Large numbers can accumulate in the few fields which have growing soybeans. Bean leaf beetles have to be numerous (16 to 39 beetles per foot of row at stage V2+) to cause economic damage. But they say with soybeans struggling to grow, and considering the value, lower thresholds may work.
• Cutworm scouting should be continued for at least two more weeks or until the 4 leaf stage, say the bug specialists. "Black cutworm larvae also have a tendency to bore into the bases of larger corn plants, and such injury can kill the growing point. This injury often referred to as "dead heart," results in corn plants with wilted center leaves."
• Indiana wins the corn rootworm derby. The first rootworm larvae of the season have been found in Indiana, but the hatch is about two weeks later than in 2007. The question becomes how the rootworms were affected by the torrential rains of the week, which have left many fields under water. If they cannot find corn roots they will die or drown.
• Brown stink bugs are present in high numbers this year says Wayne Bailey, who has been counting them in Missouri, and he says they have the potential to substantially damage seedling corn. Field edges are damaged first, and Bailey says most farmers usually don't see the damage until it is too late. He recommends scouting and spraying.
• Regardless of your Cornbelt location, entomologists say insects have been quiet this spring. This week's conference call on bugs reported IL, IA, KS, MI, ND, and OH "not much is happening." Among the insect and mite issues mentioned were cutworms (black, dingy, sandhill, variegated, and winter in MI and ND, the appearance of bean leaf beetles, and scattered reports of armyworm, cereal leaf beetle, and wheat curl mite in wheat. Since then, IL entomologists have continued to receive reports about cutworm injury.
• Recent rains and warmer temperatures will make the weeds grow as fast as the crop, and shorten your time for applying a post emergent herbicide if your pre-emergent herbicide has failed or was never applied. IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says you have several choices. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=951 .
  1) Remove the weeds during the current critical period for corn and yield will be saved.
  2) If the corn is beyond the labeled recommendations, the crop can be injured.
  3) Corn under stress from water or other issues can be injured by herbicides.
  4) Check labels since some herbicides now have restrictions against certain insecticides.
• Breaking down livestock waste into various components, and treating them as cities treat sewage, can successfully address the odor issues facing rural livestock production farms. Livestock researcher Paul Walker at Illinois State says the systems approach produces a soil amendment product and a low odor, low phosphorus, high nitrogen product usable in irrigation systems. Read more at: www.sweeta.illinois.edu .
• Yes, feed costs are high, says Iowa State livestock economist John Lawrence, but he adds, "Eventually livestock prices will increase in response to the higher feed costs and reach a level that yields enough margin to sustain the industry." Lawrence says the transition will not be smooth or timely, but producers should prepare for the long run.
• Livestock producers should focus on business management to survive says Lawrence:
  1) Corn prices will not return to $2, and even a bumper crop may only drop them to $4.
  2) If corn cheapens, do you have borrowing capacity and storage for that opportunity?
  3) Livestock production will have to decline to return profitability with high feed costs.
  4) Market volatility will continue and the focus should be on margins, not just prices.
  5) Futures contracts will provide an acceptable margin to lock in for a part of production.

Posted by John Fulton at 12:50 PM |