• A Farm Bill backfire occurred with some pages missing when the Congress forwarded it to the White House, and the President vetoed a document different than what had been approved on Capitol Hill. Reprising last week's action, the House voted 306-110 and the Senate voted 82-13. Unfortunately, the need to repeat everything also necessitates the Congress renewing the 2002 Farm Bill for another week to avert parity implementation.
• How will farms financially fare under the new Farm Bill, compared to past plans? IA State economists say reliance on farm program payments has provided some degree of stability during low price years. They say the lower 20% of farms has higher debt-to-asset ratios and is more dependent upon farm program payments for cash income. They say that group may be more vulnerable to changes in the cost structure of farm assets.
• The survey of Iowa farms found "The top 20 percent have improved their financial standing significantly over the period. The lowest 20 percent have made little financial progress. Between these extremes we see farm businesses, at varying degrees, meeting outside cash obligations and strengthening their equity position." The Iowa State economists believe, "Ultimately strong farm profits will be bid into land, rents and other asset values, resulting in tighter more volatile margins." Read a summary of their report at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/articles/jolly/JollyMay08.html .
• Grain market fundamentals are no longer driving prices says Kansas State economist Mike Woolverton, who says crude oil prices are in the drivers seat. He says planting rates should cause prices to fade, but corn and beans are now lumped with oil as inflationary commodities that have caught the eye of speculators, who are pushing prices up. His newsletter is at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp
• Woolverton says ethanol has enjoyed a strong defense lately, after IA Sen. Grassley revealed the Grocery Mfg. Assn. had created an anti-ethanol publicity campaign and he wanted a halt to it. Also USDA reported energy prices have played a larger role in food price inflation than ethanol, and the President's Council of Economic Advisors reported only 3% of the rise in global food prices was due to increased ethanol demand for corn.
• The ethanol controversy has significant implications for both the motoring public and for Cornbelt farmers, according to Woolverton, particularly if production is reduced.
  1) 5% of motor fuel is ethanol, and if eliminated, gas prices would rise 10-12%.
  2) If ethanol supplies rise 5%, gasoline prices would likely drop by more than 5%.
  3) If ethanol demand for an extra 1 bil. bu. is eliminated, corn prices would fall to $3.
  4) Despite a corn price drop, production costs have risen to $4 because of energy costs.
• Cold temperatures and heavy rains have killed many corn seedlings, says Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger, and stands less than 15,000 per acre will benefit from replanting. He says slow growth is not good either, and with this year's poor weather, replanting is "favored" this year. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=942
• Replanting decisions need to include insecticide considerations says IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey. He says if you may have already applied the maximum amount of one insecticide, you should not violate federal label regulations. But he says consider other insecticides. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=938
• Cold soil delayed corn germination and it is delaying corn rootworm arrival also. Typically they hatch in last week of May, but they may be hatching in the first two weeks of June, as they did in 1996 & 1997. IL Extension entomologists say that implies:
  1) Early planting and a late hatch puts increased pressure on soil insecticide performance.
  2) Early planting of Bt corn followed by a very late hatch could mean more root injury.
  3) Late hatch and late planting may simply delay emergence and corn tasseling.
  4) This may increase the odds that these events occur during the hottest summer period.
• While you have been busy planting beans, black cutworms have been busy feasting on fresh greens emerging in your corn field. The adult moths that have been flying into the Cornbelt during the past month will give rise to larvae with voracious appetites.
• Don't assume that your biotech corn will control black cutworms. Yieldgard has no protection, and Herculex will give some protection according to Iowa St. entomologists. Researchers say a loss of 400 plants per A in 32,000 population would mean the loss of enough corn to cover the cost of control. That is 1-2% of the plants in $6 corn. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0516TollefsonRice.htm
• Seed applied insecticides such as Cruiser and Poncho are not preventing economic stand losses from grubs, wireworms, and cutworms, but Purdue specialists say it may not be their fault. The insecticide is supposed to be absorbed by a rapidly growing seedling to provide a "systemic" protection. But this year there wasn't much "rapid" in the growth. Purdue entomologists believe this problem will be thoroughly discussed before 2009.
• You were a good boy and planted your Bt refuge. But in your haste, you forgot to apply the insecticide. Purdue entomologist John Obermeyer says that is not a problem and you can apply a post emergent liquid insecticide now or at cultivation time. He says weather is often a limiting factor in getting post emergent insecticides applied timely.
• With the challenges to corn emergence, will soybeans face the same problems? Mich. State agronomist Mike Staton says if soybean replanting is considered, there will be a yield loss of 0.6 bu. per day after mid-May. 100,000 good plants per acre should be the target population for a good yield, and since soybean seed is fragile and good supplies are short this year, it may not be possible to obtain enough seed to replant significant acres.
• When the weather breaks, there will be a rush to spray weeds says Extension specialist Dennis Epplin, and decisions should be made to control the spray, instead of letting the wind control it. Extensive technology is available along with adjuvants that may help. http://www.herbicide-adjuvants.com/ . He says make the spray stay on target.
• Do you have purple corn? Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says pigments produce the color, and a hybrid's genetic make up determines its susceptibility to purple coloring:
  1) The pigment appears when the plant is stressed by temperature and moisture.
  2) Greater amounts of soil compaction this year can also cause stress.
  3) Cool nights and bright sunny days with UV radiation can also turn corn purple.
  4) Purpling is more pronounced with more stressors: disease, insect & herbicide injury
  5) Phosphorus deficiency is not the cause, but wet soils can aggravate a P deficiency
  6) The cause of leaf purpling, not the purpling itself, can lead to yield reduction.
  7) Purpling will slowly disappear as temperatures warm and corn plants rapidly grow.
• When you get a virus, your doctor can't do much for you; and MO Extension's Laura Sweets says that is the same for your wheat crop. She says virus is prevalent in wheat, and there is not much that can be done about it, adding that fungicides will not cure a virus. She says wheat streak mosaic virus can sometimes reduce yields by 50%. Curl mites spread that particular virus, and they hang out in volunteer wheat.
• Consult your spouse about the theory of Purdue health specialist Bill Field, who says your blood pressure is probably higher this spring because the weather has compressed the planting season. He says that means less sleep, unawareness of one's surroundings, and poor decision making. He says any dry weather will create haste to get work accomplished, but in your haste, safety is compromised and your health declines.
• $58 is better than $35 meaning that hog prices are $23 higher than expected, says Purdue economist Chris Hurt, who says the price increase has come even with a 10% rise in production. Hurt says strong pork export demand, helped by a low value of the dollar, has substantially pushed demand higher than would have been seasonally expected.
• Both US and Chinese demand have helped the pork market says Chris Hurt, and that has caused him to revise his projections for the pork economy. Hurt says the adjusted prices should average $54-$55 through the fall, with prices moving into the mid-$60's next spring. With production costs averaging $58 in the foreseeable future, Purdue's Hurt says near term losses will be $2-4 per cwt., not the $20+ losses he'd expected.
• Pork exports got the attention of MO economist Glenn Grimes, who said March exports were 38% above year ago levels, and 63% of that growth was broad based, and not just from China. Grimes and cohort Ron Plain says one out of every 5.5 hogs slaughtered in the US was exported. At the same time the rate of imported hogs was declining.

It's been a couple of years, but the costs of operation have finally been updated. These are the actual cost figures to operate a piece of equipment, and are commonly referred to as custom rates. These are not custom rate figures, since those would be based on what people are actually charging. Here is the link to the summary rates for 2008:

http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/machinery/machinery_summary.html

The Illinois State Fair books, exhibitor cards, and other information is now online at:

www.illinoisstatefair.info/

• The market has been buying more corn acres since the Planting Intentions report, but IL Extension economist Darrel Good wonders if there will really be the demand that the market expects. He says pork producers are reducing their inventory; corn exports may decline if the dollar rebounds and wheat stocks are available; and China's corn needs are uncertain. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/050508.html .
• Another question mark on corn demand is the ethanol market. Policy makers are debating the biofuels mandates and the tax credit received by blenders, in light of higher domestic food prices which critical consumers have erroneously blamed on ethanol. Good says, "At current prices for corn and ethanol, however, corn based ethanol production would remain profitable even with a modestly lower blender's tax credit."
• The USDA's World Outlook Board will be adjusting supply-demand numbers May 9. The market is expecting USDA to raise the carryout to 1.320 bil. bu. from the April 1.283 bil. bu. estimate because of slower corn use by ethanol plants. However, the market is also expecting the 2009-09 carryout to be only 707 mil. bu., which is historically tight.
• Darrel Good says if the market needs 13 bil. bu. for the year beginning in Sept., then the 2008 crop has to reach 12.7 bil. bu., and that would require a nearly 161 bu. average yield from nearly perfect weather. He's expecting planted acreage to exceed the March USDA estimates. Knowing the grain trade closely follows the weekly crop reports, Good says the market believes planting will speed up because farmers can plant more acres per day.
• Regarding soybeans, the market is expecting Friday's USDA reports to forecast a 2007-08 carryout at 152 mil. bu., compared to the 160 mil. in April. The 2008-09 carryout is expected to be 273 mil. bu., thanks to more production and fewer exports. The market expects world soybean production to grow slightly along with increased global demand.
• Research shows most of the time that trendline-adjusted corn crop yields are below average in La Nina years with a less chance for wheat and more likely average or above average yields on soybeans, says Jim Noel at Ohio State. "The data still supports a trend to drier than average for late May and June, but it does looks like at least average rain the next 2 weeks with small areas of above average rainfall mainly in the north."
• The western two-thirds of the Cornbelt are getting the most rainfall, says OSU weather specialist Jim Noel, "The western Cornbelt out towards Iowa, Wisconsin, So. Minnesota and NW. Illinois have been much, much wetter than Ohio and are being impacted even more. It appears the wettest areas will remain west of Ohio the next few weeks."
• How were 2007 yields? IL Extension economists report state averages were higher than trendline. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_09/fefo08_09.html .
  1) IL: 175 bu., 16 bu. above 2007 trend, with exceptional yields in nor. & cen. IL.
  2) IN: 155 bu., 2 bu. above 2007 trend, with above average yields in eastern IN.
  3) IA: 171 bu., 7 bu. above 2007 trend, eastern IA was above trend yield.
  4) MN: 146 bu., 12 bu. below 2007 trend, with poor yields in central MN.
  5) NE: 160 bu., 5 bu. above 2007 trend, no counties were very high or very low.
  6) OH: 150 bu., 3 bu. above 2007 trend, good county yields except western OH.
• Watch the growing degree days, not the calendar, says Extension's Emerson Nafziger, who says it is too early to switch to an earlier-maturing corn hybrid, "Corn planted later also requires fewer growing degree days to reach maturity than the same hybrid planted early, which adds to the cushion. In general, then, hybrids on hand for planting should not be switched out for earlier ones unless planting goes into very late May."
• Will higher seeding rates payoff, even with hybrid corn that costs over $200 per bag. IA State agronomists analyzed current corn prices versus seed costs and populations:
  1) Regardless of price, 36,000 population give maximum yield and net income.
  2) The 30,000 rate gave a slightly lower return, if producers have to cut seed costs.
  3) 42,000 and 48,000 rates have lower net returns for both 180 and 220 bu. yields.
  4) A 24,000 rate lowers returns, but not as much as the 48,000 seeding rate.
• If your soybean seeding rate exceeds 150,000 per acre, don't expect much yield increase. IL Specialist Nafziger says 100,000 may be the population that produces the maximum yields under most conditions. He says the canopy is the key and with late planting reducing vegetative growth, narrower rows will grow a better canopy. Read Nafziger's newsletter at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=930 .
• Wheat growers may not get much of a chance to plant doublecrop soybeans after taking out their wheat. The wheat crop is delayed along with everything else, so an early wheat harvest and longer growing period for soybeans has less likelihood. Nafziger says that will only happen if the temperature warms up, and he said that will hurt the wheat yield.
• Which is first: planting or weed control? Mike Owen at IA State knows your concern, but says a pre-emergent weed control before planting is a priority, or at least apply it immediately after planting. He adds that winter annual weeds are a problem, and "Do not think you can eliminate the burndown herbicide treatments in pre-emergence applications unless tillage has been conducted very close to the planting and spraying operations."
• Many farmers want to wait and apply Roundup after the crop and most weeds emerge. But Owen grits his teeth at that. "There are concerns that these treatments are being marketed as a 1-pass treatment that will provide season-long weed control. This is unlikely and plan on a timely second application of something postemergence."
• Shake up your herbicide program, says Mich. State agronomist Wes Everman, "Plan to use herbicide programs that account for deficiencies in last year's weed control program. Weed escapes the prior year can leave hundreds or thousands of weed seeds in the soil seed bank. Using the same herbicide program 2 years in a row can potentially compound the problem creating greater weed populations and weed control issues in the future."
• Armyworms are on the march out of KY into southern IN & IL and have found forage and wheatfields to their liking. It has been about 7 years since the last invasion, and IL Extension entomologists are urging producers not to depend on rescue recommendations from 2001, but get news ones at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/pubs/iapmh/01chapter.pdf . They say the cold wet weather may even enhance fungus that will control armyworms.
• Many spring insect pests may be starving without fresh corn and beans. Entomologist Mike Gray says every specie is different and life cycles must be considered separately.
  1) Rootworms may starve if corn planting is delayed until late May.
  2) Corn borers may not be a problem, but late planting helps the second generation.
  3) Cutworms can thrive on weeds in untilled fields until corn begins to emerge.
  4) Annual white grub injury should be limited, but their development could be delayed.
  5) Wireworms may remain in the upper (warmer) soil layer and damage seedlings.
  6) Seedcorn maggot injury may be magnified by late planting in cool, wet soils.
• Is soybean rust a non-issue for you? If so, IL Extension crop specialist Robert Bellm says it is a bit early for that attitude. He says all soybeans are suitable hosts along with the Cornbelt environment, but weather patterns the past 3 years have not been conducive. He says field scouting pays off, and the protective management tools are accessible. Keep up to date by monitoring the official USDA rust site: http://www.sbrusa.net .
• It is the grilling season, and pork and beef producers know that because of the typical 10-20% rise in prices in late April. Shane Ellis at Iowa State says it is unfortunate that hog prices are still $10 below breakeven levels. He believes beef prices will stay below $100 because price-conscious consumers are buying cheaper pork and poultry.
• And Iowa State's Ellis says producers need to be aware of dynamics. "In general, consumers are looking for cheaper products as the cost of food and fuel escalates. This means lower demand for higher priced well finished beef and sustained strong demand for pork. For producers even the best forecasted prices of the spring and summer will still not be enough to offset the impact that feed costs have made to the bottom line."

• Alfalfa – scouting should be underway for alfalfa growers to check for alfalfa weevil. Since we are at the early end of any damage, the threshold for treatment should be 25 to 50% of tips being skeletonized and 3 or more larvae per stem. In the case of early harvest to meet hay needs, watch the regrowth for crown feeding. Many pyrethroids are labeled for control, as are Lorsban 4-E and Imidan.
• Corn – check carefully for black cutworm since planting has been delayed. Postemergence rescue treatments should be applied when 3-5% minimum of plants are being cut, and the larvae are present. Feeding from small cutworms appears as pinholes in leaves. Cutworms can feed on corn before emergence so watch stands carefully.
• Corn – wireworms and grubs can affect seed, seedling, and plants. No rescue treatments are effective, so it becomes an evaluation of your stand. Since insecticides are used on nearly every acre of corn (this includes rootworm corn with a light rate of Poncho), you might tend to be complacent. The light rates of insecticides may not provide adequate control, so do keep an eye on things.