April 25, 2008

Extension Update from Stu Ellis

• Price relationships have changed between corn and beans since the USDA intentions report, says marketing specialist Jim Hilker at Mich. St., and he says it favors corn now, but weather is still a threat for a reversal. He says producers need to keep more in corn than the USDA forecast, because the US will have less carryout at the end of the year.
• Hilker says make some forward contracts if you can to lock in prices for your 2008 corn. Recognizing the fact some elevators will not offer forward pricing, he says farmers may have to use the options market. He knows put options are expensive, but offer downside protection from deep drops. He also says selling a call option reduces the cost of the put.
• Regarding soybeans, Hilker says, "If you look at new crop soybean prices only being twice new crop corn prices, versus a more normal 2.3-2.5, even with the high fertilizer prices, that means higher returns to corn per acre for most producers." And he adds, "It is hard for me to explain soybean prices given the projected world stocks. Does the market know something we don't?" Read more: http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• Cowboys still have a long trail ahead of them when you consider the observations of Purdue economist Chris Hurt. He expects slaughter cattle prices to remain in the $90 range for the balance of the year, and doubts fundamentals can support the late 2008 futures prices that are above $100. Production was up 3% in the first quarter and is up 7% in April, a rise due to higher feedlot placements last fall when corn was cheaper.
• Chris's crystal ball says the beef herd is getting smaller, with cow and heifer slaughter rates up and an increased number of heifers in feedlots. He thinks the trend will continue because of poor returns. However, an easing of the drought in the southeast will make some producers re-think downsizing plans. But he says there is dryness in the west. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/042108.html .
• Hog producers lost $39/hd on March hogs, the most since the $36 loses of June 2002, but not as much as the $68 losses in late 1998. Since the $47/hd profits of June 2006, hogs have recorded an $87/hd reversal in 21 months. Iowa State calculated the numbers and attributed the losses to rising feed costs and record high market volumes.
• What is the summer outlook? Iowa State livestock economists say, "April projections suggest a slight reduction in losses as the hog market enters the seasonally stronger summer market. However, feed inputs continue to become more expensive, suggesting more significant losses after the summer months when hog prices turn seasonally lower."
• Celebrate! 2008 will be the 17^th consecutive year of record pork exports. Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain at MO Extension say Feb. exports were 57% higher, helped by Canada being up 37%, Russia up 163%, China up 361%. 17% of US production was exported in February, explaining most of the larger live hog demand growth in recent months.
• Canadian economics. MO pork economists report hundreds of thousands of weanling pigs in Canada are being killed because there will not be a US market for them under terms of US Country of Origin Labeling. Intended US feeders are breaking contracts to buy the pigs, so they are being destroyed as a result of having too little value in Canada.
• You may not have any corn planted, but take solace in the view of IL Extension specialist Emerson Nafziger, who says, "Corn that has been planted early into cool soils has not benefited much from that up to now." He provides a launch day check list:
  1) Check your fields, there are a few spots you might say "Its drier than I thought."
  2) Your planter and other equipment should be in shape, but it probably already is.
  3) Tilling wet soil produces clods and a poor seedbed. Tillage will not help soil dry deep.
  4) When the soil is dry, planting is a higher priority than applying pre-plant fertilizer.
  5) You are probably not going to plant too fast to reduce yield from poor seed placement.
  6) It takes 110-120 GGD from planting to emergence, but that is not always uniform.
  7) Even by planting in early May, yield loss will only be 5-10 bu. compared to mid-April.
• Planning your Bt refuge should be a priority. Purdue researchers say, "Striping the refuge within the field better mixes the emerging beetle populations, potentially delaying insect resistance." And they say using your neighbor's field is not acceptable.
• Protecting your Bt refuge from attack by corn rootworm is another priority.
  1) New John Deere planters have eliminated granular insecticide boxes, but can be retrofitted for liquid soil insecticides, or SmartBox® systems that are light enough.
  2) Splitting the planter with Cruiser Rootworm or Poncho 1250 seed-applied insecticides is possible with row seed boxes, but may not be possible with bulk seed boxes.
  3) Low rates of the seed-applied insecticides do not control rootworms. Rootworm product efficacy should be considered depending on the anticipated risk to damage.
  4) Liquid soil insecticides and seed-applied insecticides frequently perform poorly under high rootworm pressure. Granular insecticides are preferred in fields under high pressure.
• Scout your corn fields intensely between May 12 and 20. You'll be seeing black cutworms, based on the recent captures of adults from the southern tip of Illinois to the Wisconsin border. Entomologists predicted the date range based on egg laying and hatch
  schedules. Also, armyworm adults have been trapped in the southern half of Illinois. Even though you may be focused on corn planting, take a moment to scout for damage.
• "The difference between killing weeds and managing weeds is $$$ at the end of the year," says Mike Owen at Iowa State. Despite the mad rush to plant, Owen says give serious consideration to applying a pre-emergent herbicide to provide early season and residual control in fields were weeds germinate first and have heavy populations.
• A delayed herbicide application with glyphosate can be effective, but Owen says timing is critically important, and if it is done too late, money is lost because crop yield is suppressed. And he says such a treatment is unlikely successful as a 1-pass treatment.
• Can you calculate Growing Degree Days? With the onset of the growing season, crop and insect development will depend on GDD's, and you'll need to know how to total them. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2008/issues/20080421.htm .
  1) Average the high temp and 50 F. then subtract 50 for the GGD total for that day.
  2) If the low is under 50 F., use 50, since no growth occurs under 50 F.
  3) If the low temperature is above 50 F., use that, but still subtract 50 F.
  4) Total the daily increments, as the Growing Degree Days accumulate during the year.
• Flea beetles should be on your checklist. After your corn is emerged, look for the black specks that not only resemble fleas, but spread Stewart's Wilt to susceptible varieties, including inbreds and sweet corn. Their prevalence is based on average winter temperatures, and anything above 30 F, could have moderate to severe disease problems.
• You've paid a lot of money for a herbicide pre-mix, but the label only gives one rate and you want the flexibility to adjust that rate. How do you calculate the rate? IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager has calculated the active ingredients for 38 corn herbicide premixes and 19 for beans. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=909 . He makes it easy, but it is also some good mental exercise for that math student at home.
• Are you reducing soybean production costs by cutting back on the seeding rate? MN agronomist Seth Naeve reminds that population does not create yield, but soybean stands must be large enough to intercept the maximum amount of light, and maximum yields require sufficient population to create more nodes for pod growth. "More plants allow more potential places for seed to set and mature. For this reason, the minimum plant stand at harvest to maximize yield is the critical number to strive for."
• If you are planting no-till beans will there be the required 7 days between your burndown application and the planting date? That is the concern of Ohio St. agronomist Mark Loux, who says the short time usually means the elimination of the 2,4-D ester combination with glyphosate. But he says it is too effective to pass up. He offers extensive advice on 2,4-D and no-till corn and beans at: http://corn.osu.edu/#A .
• The window for topdressing wheat may be closing within days, say agronomists in IN and OH, since the wheat crop may be further along than it would appear to be. Node inspection indicates the stage of growth, and they say failure to check may lead to poor timing of applications which can violate labels, give poor weed control, or injure crops.

Posted by John Fulton at 8:05 AM | Permalink |

April 21, 2008

2008 Field Crop Scouting Workshop Series

The Field Crop Scouting Workshop series offers a combination of hands-on and classroom experience in integrated pest management and crop growth and development. CCA continuing education credits have been applied for at all sessions.

Session will be from 9-11 am each time at the listed cooperators farm, except the July 9 should include some additional time for a pond inspection. If you would like to be on the email reminder list for sessions, please send an email to fultonj@uiuc.edu . Of course, if you received this by email, you're on the list!

Please try to bring a lawn chair for the classroom portion of the sessions.

Posted by John Fulton at 2:40 PM | Permalink |

April 18, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• Even with Dec futures over $6.25, corn remains a commodity in demand. The latest export projection is for 2.5 bil. bu. and that is 18% larger than the last marketing year when prices were lower. IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good says the extra demand results from Chinese corn being unavailable to the Orient. But high prices have slowed demand from the ethanol industry, as the rate has slowed for new plants coming on line.
• The demand for corn by the livestock industry remains strong, but Darrel Good said actual numbers are hard to reconcile because of possible errors in determining the size of the 2007 crop, and the shift to feed wheat and distillers dried grain when corn prices rose.
• 2008 corn acreage is still a question mark with the shift in prices before and after the USDA Prospective Planting Report. Good says some farmers may have rethought their plans, but now cold, wet conditions may reduce corn and increase bean acreage. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/041408.html .
• Diesel fuel costs continue to rise, and the NYMEX crude oil futures give an indication of what you'll have to pay in coming months. Kansas St. economist Kevin Dhuyvetter says there is very little break in sight. This fall, count on prices 30-40% higher than last fall. Find his chart and graph at: http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf .
• Live hog weights are down 1.8 lbs, but dressed weights are up 1 lb., compared to a year ago says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes. "There have been trade reports that producers are making an effort to lower slaughter weights. It is difficult to pull weights down when hogs are gaining well. The seasonal pattern is for weights to top out near the end of a year or beginning of a year and reach a low in weight in July-August."
• The winter survival of corn rootworms depends on the temperature, and Purdue bug gurus say they probably did well this winter. "One common misconception is that a single "hard freeze" will wipe out many of the insects or eggs during the winter season. In fact, it often takes much more than this to make a difference to insect populations. For example, our key corn pest, the Western corn rootworm, which overwinters in the egg stage, requires a total of 35 days at or below 14ºF for large-scale egg mortality to occur."
• The winter survival of flea beetles also depends on cold temperatures, and Iowa State entomologists say the risk is negligible for them this year. The opinion is based on average temperatures December through February. Although flea beetles cause minimal crop damage themselves, they carry Stewart's Wilt, which can devastate corn seedlings.
• We are not to the point yet of losing yield on either corn or soybeans because of the late date. However, NE Extension provides an economic comparison to determine whether corn or beans should be planted first, if the planting season gets seriously delayed.
  1) In NE corn yields drop 0.75% for each day after May 10. For 200 bu/ac corn this is 1.5 bu/day. With $5.00 corn that amounts to $7.50/ac/day; on 1000 acres this is $7500.
  2) Soybean yields decrease from 1/4 to 5/8 bu/ac/day (average of 0.44 bu/ac/day or $5.28/ac/day for $12.00 soybeans) when planting after May 1 in eastern Nebraska.
• So, what happens if planting is really delayed? OSU agronomists share their ideas:
  1) Avoid tillage and planting is soils are wet, because of compaction penalties.
  2) Planting date is only one of many factors that determine optimum corn yields.
  3) Shift from pre-plant fertilizer and herbicide application to a post plant operation.
  4) Keep tillage and other seedbed preparations to a minimum and hasten planting.
  5) Don't worry about switching hybrid maturities until late May.
  6) With no or reduced tillage, increase seeding rate 10% for maximum population.
• "Patience is important when it comes to planting corn in April!" That is the advice of Iowa State agronomists, who say 6% is the most corn ever planted in Iowa before mid April and that was in 2006. (But that jumped to 25% by the third week of April.) They believe there is plenty of time, and seed should not sit in cold, wet soils without a short term promise that better days lie ahead. After all, corn can be planted faster than ever.
• With delayed corn planting, IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey says black cutworms will be waiting, "Black cutworms could be a more widespread issue this year than in the past few years. People will have to sharpen their scouting skills and prepare for frequent scouting trips to keep up with rapidly developing cutworm larvae."
• If you are still worried about nitrogen loss before your corn gets planted, John Lory of MO Extension says soils are still too cold to have denitrification. "If nitrogen is not leaching, there is little chance for nitrogen loss right now. It's when soil temperatures are in the 60 to 70 degree range when rapid nitrogen loss happens. A late spring saturation event lasting 3-4 days is really when we see nitrogen loss from denitrification take off." Bone up on this at: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v18n5/a1.pdf .
• If field crop insects have been bugging you, some answers to your questions will be available at: www.ipm.uiuc.edu/ontarget . The IL Extension website provides details of management trials for corn rootworm, black cutworm, and soybean aphids. Previews of insects moving into the Cornbelt can be found at two Extension websites:
  1) University of Kentucky: http://www.uky.edu/Ag/IPM/ipm.htm
  2) University of Missouri: http://ppp.missouri.edu/pestmonitoring/bcw/bcw08.asp
• Whether you call them horseweeds or marestail, a growing number are becoming resistant to glyphosate. IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager suggests solving that problem early, "Ideally, all horseweed should be controlled before planting, especially before planting beans." Read more: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=904
• Depending on the weeds growing in your fields, some burndown herbicides will work and others will not. Regardless where you farm in the Cornbelt, find an efficacy rating for a wide range of chemicals: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=904 .
• If you are chewing nails over glyphosate prices, consider the philosophy of WI weed specialist Chris Boerboom, who says, "The goal of a weed management program is to protect yield. The old saying about being penny wise and pound foolish certainly applies to weed management. Herbicides are a wise investment. This investment may now include more than just glyphosate." He says consider alternatives for good weed control.
• There may be no escaping Asian rust, since spores were found last year as far north as Minnesota. Rust was detected in Iowa, but with no impact on crop production. While no rust was found in Minnesota, the spores did arrive, but did not get the chance to affect the crop, even though they arrived as early as June 22. Conditions were just not favorable for development of the disease says MN Extension pathologist Dean Malvick. In Iowa, the early warning system is being changed, to speed up the identification process for Asian rust. The 700 First Detectors will not have to identify it, just deliver it to Iowa State.
• Wheat is breaking dormancy, and it is time to make a stand count. IL crop specialist Jim Morrison suggests checking the crown to see if it is in good condition. "Dig shovelful "plugs" of soil and wheat. Put them in a sunny, cool area (unheated enclosed porch) and check the crowns in about a week." Live crowns produce new leaves.
• You probably carry hail insurance and MO climatologist Pat Guinan says property and crop losses from hail exceed $2 bil. annually and represent 1-2% of crop value. But, that amount rises to 5-6% of the crop value produced in the High Plains. Learn about the biggest hailstone at: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v18n5/a1.pdf .
• Illinois may soon join other states that have experienced significant downsizing in their Extension staff. Personnel layoffs are scheduled to begin after May 1 that will impact 450 county-level educators, program and support staff. Expected state funding of more than $12 mil. has been used to expand state-funded health programs and isn't available. IL agriculture will be losing a wealth of institutional knowledge and dedicated educators.
• Illinois state budget cuts also will eliminate county-level SWCD offices, which begin closing May 2. Also being terminated is the AgrAbility program that provides services to disabled farmers, the Council on Food and Agricultural Research, and the Grape and Wine Resources Council. The Governor had earlier vetoed funds for 29 4-H educators.

Posted by John Fulton at 7:49 AM | Permalink |

April 17, 2008

Soil Temperatures

With the kind of spring we have had, many are concerned about the soil temperatures. As we head for planting, are soils warm enough? The April 16 10 am bare soil four inch soil temp was between 46 and 48 degrees throughout Logan County. While still on the cool side, it has been increasing about two degree per day for the last three days.

Continued upward trend is expected at this time of year. And, as we head into next week, we have to start paying attention to the calendar as much as the soil temperatures. At greatest risk are early planted soybean acres. Several producers have begun early planting as a way to try and increase soybean yields. With the rather poor germination of many group 3 soybeans this year, it would probably be wise to delay soybean planting until more traditional planting dates in May.

Posted by John Fulton at 11:24 AM | Permalink |

April 8, 2008

Costs of Operation with higher diesel fuel

We are still operating off of cost of operation sheets from 2006, but what are the ramifications of $3.50 diesel fuel? The 2006 set of rates used a fuel cost of $2.50 per gallon, and now we are in that $3.50 ballpark.

Tillage rates such as a chisel plow we would add $1.33 per acre for the extra fuel cost. Other increases would include $2.36 per acre for moldboard plow, $1.64 per acre for a disk/chisel, and $.73 for a tandem disk. Annhydrous ammonia application would have a $.61 per acre increase. This works out to about a 35% increase in the breakout category for fuel and lube for all the rates.

The original rates at $2.50 diesel fuel are copied here http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/logan/agnews/i2966_601.html#4

The 2008 custom rate survey from Iowa is located here http://www.extension.iastate.edu/publications/FM1698.pdf

Remember that Iowa used an actual charged rate survey, while Illinois has traditionally calculated the cost of the operation for the machinery owner.

Posted by John Fulton at 8:01 AM | Permalink |