February 22, 2008

Extension Update from Stu Ellis

• The acreage debate will continue, as will the debate about release of some CRP acres for crop production, suggests IL Extension's Darrel Good. He says USDA expects an extra 6 mil. acres to be planted this year, but only 1.3 mil. from former CRP land and the balance from grassland and displacing minor crops. Read his latest marketing newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/021808.html .
• But Darrel Good says the USDA acreage estimates for 2008 were made at a time when corn carryover stocks were much higher than they are currently, and at a time when the corn yield was thought to be 4 bu. per acre more than it turned out to be. He says those factors could be important to the market in its bid to ensure sufficient grain supplies.
• High grain prices will continue, says Marketing Specialist Melvin Brees at Missouri in his latest newsletter, "It appears that the tight supply situation for grain won't be "cured" in the coming year and the outlook for favorable prices may continue. However, the balance between crops is critical to meeting demand needs and what happens to prices." More: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf
• Brees' outlook for wheat is that, "Most estimates are that US acreage will increase to 61 or 62 mil. acres, which is up somewhat from last year's 60.4 mil. This increase along with slower wheat exports would allow wheat carryover to increase somewhat from current very tight levels. Wheat prices may decline from re­cord highs, but are likely to remain at historically good price levels." He says US wheat stocks are at a 60 year low.
• Regarding wheat, Marketing Specialist Jim Hilker at Michigan State says, "Projected 2007-08 world ending stocks were lowered another 1 MMT to 109 MMT, again, the lowest in modern times. The record upward price movement on top of the already record prices shows the world knows it is very short wheat and the market in making a run at rationing wheat. His balance sheet is at: http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
• The bustling export business is due to the exchange rate according to Purdue economist Chris Hurt. "The European euro has increased in value relative to the US dollar by 40%. What that means is that with the same number of euros the Europeans can buy 40% more in the United States than they would have been able to buy three or four years ago."
• Chris Hurt says, "As an example, $12 soybeans in the Midwest are equivalent to $9 to the world at this point. This suggests that the world will not cut back on grain usage as quickly, because as buyers purchase using their own currencies they are not experiencing as high a price as we perceive these prices to be in the United States."
• Maintain your typical production practices, even though commodity prices are higher. That is the advice of Kansas State's Phil Sloderbeck who says variety selection, fertility, pest management, irrigation, timely planting and harvesting will still be the critical decisions between profit and loss. "Higher prices will lower economic thresholds, but they don't eliminate the need for scouting and applying treatments in a timely manner."
• "As the stakes go up, it may be more important to make safe bets," says Extension's Sloderbeck. "Pay down the loans, purchase new equipment to improve efficiency and timeliness of practices, adjust fertilizer rates to rebuild soil that may have been mined during years of poor returns, pay more for improved higher yielding seed, update or improve equipment, and hire a crop consultant to improve pest management decisions."
• Hog slaughter is up nearly 11% since the first of the year, but MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes believes part of the reason that fewer hogs are dying from circovirus, and maturing to slaughter weight. But he says the breeding herd is only being reduced at a slow rate if at all, and the larger slaughter rate will continue through the third quarter. "If so, it will require an unheard of growth in live hog demand or death loss at a high rate from some other disease to get the kind of prices being offered by the futures market."
• The dynamics will change in beef production, believe Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain at MO Extension. They think more pasture will be converted to cropland and herds will decline because of high feed costs. "The size of the cow herd is likely to be reduced more than the size of the total cattle herd as beef producers shift more beef production to pastures, ranges and forage from corn. The probabilities are high that young cattle will be raised to higher weights on forage before they are placed on a high grain diet."
• Grimes and Plain rhetorically ask, "The beef cow herd in the six states of IA, IN, IL, MN, MO, and NE on January 1, 2008 was down 3% from 2007. This compares with the beef cow herd in the U.S. on January 1, 2008 being down 1%. Is this a sign that farmers are already starting to use some pasture acreage for crops rather than cows?"
• Speaking of pasture, are you leasing pasture, and if so, how does your lease address the possibility of drought? NE Extension forage specialist Bruce Anderson says the landowner has the risk of having his pasture overgrazed and the value lowered. The tenant risks poor animal performance and health. He says decide ahead when to remove the cattle and adjust the rent, then put it all in writing to avoid any misunderstanding.
• Save on production costs this year with some common sense. Ohio State ag engineer Randall Reeder offers a number of suggestions for cutting costs and raising profits:
  1) Fuel costs for planting crops in reduced tillage is about half that of intensive tillage.
  2) Using cover crops to capture N can cut commercial N purchases by 50-100 lbs/A.
  3) Corn yields will be higher when rotated with soybeans because of N supplies.
  4) Controlled traffic patterns save fuel, labor, crop inputs and equipment costs.
  5) Better management of heating and ventilation in farm buildings saves energy cost.
  6) Switching to fluorescent bulbs is expensive but saves energy and they last longer.
  7) The average tractor tire is over-inflated and causes excess slippage and fuel loss.
  8) Scheduled replacement of air and fuel filters saves fuel and increases power.
  9) It is less efficient to keep an engine idling for warmth than it is to re-start it.
  10) Don't use a sub-soiler any deeper than necessary to break up compacted soil.
• If your weed control strategy is too heavy on glyphosate, Ohio State weed specialist Mark Loux suggests, "Rotating Roundup Ready soybeans with Liberty Link corn is one way to avoid continuous postemergence use of glyphosate. Corn hybrids that contain the Herculex BT trait are also usually Liberty Link, since the gene that confers glufosinate (Liberty) resistance is a marker for the Herculex BT trait." Choose one of these plans:
  1) Apply a pre-emerge herbicide prior to crop emergence followed by a post-emerge application of glyphosate or Liberty. Apply the pre at 67%-100% of recommended rate.
  2) With weeds at a maximum of 2-3" apply a post-emerge mixture of glyphosate and Liberty, plus residual herbicides, similar to those in the first approach.
• What is the cost of this plan? Loux suggests, "Recent increases in the price of glyphosate products have pushed the cost of a standard glyphosate rate (0.75 lbs ae/A) upwards toward $10/A or higher. There is currently a rebate program associated with Liberty that reduces the price to about $9/A." Read more: http://corn.osu.edu/#D .
• What is the first year nitrogen credit for field corn following alfalfa? If you are trying to save on N costs, IL Extension crop specialist Jim Morrison says research in IA, WI, MN, and PA found an optimum N rate of 25-42 lbs/A. He says recent IL research found corn yields did not benefit from a nitrogen rate of more than 40 lbs/A.
• If you are considering organic corn, Extension in IA, WI, & OH have studied the issues after surveying recent producers. Their farm size averaged 65 A., and 91% used it for livestock feed, and 9% for food grade use. Effective weed control was their major concern, most using multiple cultivation and tillage. More. http://corn.osu.edu/#C
• If biofuels are to be successful, subsidies must exist says an Iowa State study exploring their future. Ag economists calculated that to meet federal production mandates, corn will need a 22¢ to 78¢ subsidy, biodiesel will need $1.97 to $2.90, and cellulosic ethanol will need to be subsidized $1.55 to $2.11. They contend the federal mandates may create more of a food versus fuel debate, since corn will need a lower subsidy than switchgrass.
• Food prices have not been forced up by ethanol say NE economists because grain prices are a function of the world market, and farmgate values for food are only 20% of the food dollar. The balance is for processing, packaging, transportation, etc. Since the value of corn used in domestic food production is only 16% of all farm production, then 16% of the 20% received by farmers is only 3.2%, hardly enough to inflate food prices. Their rationale is at: http://www.agecon.unl.edu/Cornhuskereconomics/2008/2-13-08.pdf
• Consider an agri-tourism venture for people who will pay to visit your farm. It increases farm revenue; makes use of under-utilized resources, can convert a hobby into a business, and even help early retirement. Visit: http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/agritourism/ .

Posted by John Fulton at 8:23 AM | Permalink |

February 15, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• Grow more. That is your assignment from the marketplace, says IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good, who says USDA's latest projections for demand and carryover stocks point to the need for large 2008 crops. Wheat, for example, will have the smallest carryout in 33 years, but exports are at a 12 year high, says Good. Read his latest newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/021108.html .
• For soybeans, export projections are more than 1 bil. bu., and slightly under last year's record. The projected crush will set a record, and carryout will be 5% of consumption, which is the least in 35 years. Darrel Good says the new crop needs to be 2.9 bil. bu., and with a trendline yield, that requires 69 mil. planted acres, which is 5.4 mil. more than '07.
• For corn, the export pace is at 15% more than last year, and some foreign crop estimates have declined. Good expects 13.255 bil. bu. to be consumed, which is more than USDA projects and that would reduce exports and livestock feeding. He says to reach a 13 bil. bu. new crop from trendline yield, 92.4 mil. acres are needed, just 1.2 mil. less than '07.
• For wheat, world production is expected to rebound and US exports will decline, but to keep stocks at the current low level, 63 million acres are needed with a trendline yield. That is 2.6 mil. acres more than last year, and with winter wheat seedings up about 1.6 mil. acres, Darrel Good says that implies the need for 1 mil. extra acres of spring wheat.
• Bob Wisner expects grain farmers to find option markets more important than in the past as a means of managing volatility. He acknowledges that options are expensive, but says out of the money strike prices can provide upward price flexibility. Wisner says the basis should strengthen later this year, but that creates a high price risk for livestock feeders.
• The early '70's brought a $2 increase in corn prices, and the beef cow inventory lost 8.65 mil. head. But Iowa State's John Lawrence says that probably won't happen this time, even though Cornbelt pastures are being planted to corn and Cornbelt states account for 57% of the decrease in beef heifers in USDA's Jan. 1 cattle inventory. While some pastures are drought stressed, Lawrence says corn is a bigger influence.
• Questions continue to be raised about USDA's Feb. world crop analysis, and Mike Woolverton at Kansas State notes that no change was made in Brazilian soybean estimates. "Persistent rain in the North of Brazil has increased damage from Asian Rust and has delayed harvest. The South of Brazil has turned dry at a critical time in pod fill. As this uncertainty is reduced by the Brazilian soybean harvest in the next month or so, look for changes in future (USDA) reports concerning the size of Brazil's soybean crop."
• Woolverton underscores Darrel Good's call for a large crop, but worries about the US weather, "The drought in the Southeastern US continues and it is dry in the Southern and Western Great Plains. Most people think it is too early to talk about yield impacts. But, we will need nearly ideal weather for crop development this spring and summer for production to satisfy projected demand. Weather scares in spring and summer could cause price fluctuations even greater than we have experienced this winter."
• The wheat market at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange was in a 90Ã?¢ trading limit rule, with $1.35 the next limit, if futures contracts continue their volatility. South Dakota marketing specialist Alan May says, "It appears that SD spring wheat producers are anticipating a reduction in spring wheat acres due to better revenue from corn and a compelling argument over the challenge of managing head scab in spring wheat."
• Alan May says, "With the successful transition to more soybean and corn acres in ND, it would seem likely at this point that a growth in spring wheat acres will not occur. However, if wheat prices continue to move higher, there is the likelihood that wheat will be very competitive from a net revenue standpoint." The MGE contract exceeded $18.
• May says the market may break. "The day or days will come when hard corrections will come into this market but the foundation of very tight supplies will likely provide more than sufficient support to keep wheat prices from a free fall to pre-August levels."
• Wrong market signals may be impacting the hog industry warns Glenn Grimes at Missouri. "Unless hog slaughter is sharply lower than now indicated or we have spectacular growth in demand, live hog prices in 2008 are likely to average in the low $40's. Our concern is that the futures market indicated prices may provide signals that the herd does not need to be downsized much, if any, from the current level of production."
• Beware of porcine circovirus, which has been around for 40 years in an innocuous version, but recently has mutated, combined with other pathogens, and is raising the mortality rate 35 to 50%. A Purdue virologist believes it may have originated after combining bovine viral diarrhea virus with other swine viral diseases.
• If you don't like soybean aphids, turn off their salivary glands. That is the finding of Kansas State researchers, who discovered that genetically neutralizing the salivary glands of aphids will shorten their life 50%. They said saliva plays an important role in the damage to a crop, and billions of dollars worth of crops could be saved as a result.
• A new corn nematode has been discovered in western TN, which MO nematode experts are comparing as much worse than soybean cyst nematodes. It matures much sooner than SCN, and creates 25% more cysts. It likes sandy soils best, reproduces the best in 81 degree soils, but three out of four will not survive winter soils as low as 18 degrees.
• Recent heavy rains threaten the wheat crop say Purdue agronomists, "These very wet soils coupled with the alternating freezing and thawing that has occurred in recent weeks and may occur in the coming weeks, makes the possibility of heaving very likely.
• When wheat breaks dormancy, Purdue recommends a topdress. "Assuming that 20-30 lbs. of nitrogen were applied at seeding time, the rate of top-dress nitrogen is directly related to yield potential. With a yield potential of 50 bu. per acre, we recommend 40 lbs. of N as a topdress, at 70 bu/ac we recommend 60 lbs. of N and at 90 bu/ac, 90 lbs. of N."
• Adjust your N application based on prices says NE soils specialist Charles Shapiro, "Nitrogen and corn prices have typically been in the 8-to-1 to 10-to-1 corn-to-nitrogen ratio. UNL nitrogen recommendations were designed to be most economical in that range. With March corn at $5.07 per bushel and nitrogen prices at about 50 cents per pound, the corn-to-nitrogen price ratio is at the recommended 10-to-1 range."
• Nitrogen and phosphorus prices continue to climb, but natural gas prices are not solely to blame says NE soils specialist Gary Hergert. It is really the value of the dollar. "With fertilizer being a worldwide commodity, the US must compete with other buyers. The weak US dollar makes fertilizer more expensive for US producers." The US imports 75% of its urea nitrogen fertilizer. But 25 US ammonia plants have closed since 1999.
• "No consistent statistical yield benefits." That was the outcome of an exhaustive WI survey about the use of foliar fungicides on corn. Without it, there was more stalk lodging but that did not mean yields were less. The agronomists say crop rotation, hybrid selection and residue management should be considered important preventative practices.
• The March 15 deadline for crop insurance is quickly approaching, and Kansas State crop insurance specialist Art Barnaby has provided a multitude of historical records about market prices, to help evaluate the necessary decisions. They are located at: http://www.agmanager.info/crops/insurance/workshops/. However, the corn price chart indicates 23 out of 35 years, prices were higher in the spring than in the fall. For soybeans, the better price was found in the spring in 20 of the 35 years studied.

Posted by John Fulton at 11:45 AM | Permalink |

February 15, 2008

2007 County Crop Yields for Logan County and surrounding

As anticipated, Logan County had tremendous corn yields, and moderate soybean yields, substantiated by preliminary figures released by the Agricultural Statistics Service. The Logan County corn yield was established at 197 bushels per acre. This figure smashed the 171 bushel per acre yield achieved in 2006, and the former yield record of 189 bushels per acre from 2004. The Logan County 10 year average for corn yields is 166.3 bushels per acre (1998-2007). The top yielding corn counties in the state were Woodford County with 204 bushels per acre, Sangamon County and Menard Counties with 199, Warren County at 198, and DeKalb and Logan Counties at 197.

Soybean yields dropped again at 50 bushels per acre in Logan County. The 2006 Logan County average was 52 bushels per acre, and the 2005 average yield was 53 bushels per acre. The 2004 crop is the soybean record with a 56 bushels per acre yield. The Logan County 10 year soybean yield average is 49.7 bushels per acre. The top yielding county in the state for soybeans was Piatt County with 56 bushels per acre. Following Piatt were Douglas County with a yield of 55, and several counties at 54 bushel per acre yields. Counties with 54 bushel averages listed in order of total production were McLean, Champaign, Vermillion, Woodford, DeWitt, and Moultrie.

The top producing county for corn was McLean County once again with a total production of 77,224,000 bushels of corn. Livingston County unseated McLean County in total soybean production with 12,561,000 bushels of soybeans produced. Logan County production was 45,605,500 bushels of corn and 5,625,000 bushels of soybeans.

Wheat fell off the radar screen again in Logan County, as below 1000 acres were harvested. Plantings were actually higher, but many area wheat fields were destroyed because of cold injury.

Following is a table of Logan County, and surrounding counties, with 2007 yields in bushels per acre:

Posted by John Fulton at 9:18 AM | Permalink |

February 8, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• USDA Supply/Demand numbers Friday will revise the grain ending stocks estimates. The market expects the Jan. corn carryout of 1.438 bil. bu. to drop to 1.412 bil. and the Jan. soybean carryout of 175 mil. bu. to be lowered to 166 mil. Additionally, the market expects the wheat carryout of 292 mil. bu. from the Jan. report to drop to 273 mil. bu.
• 15% more for corn and 10% more for beans are the estimated increases in production costs for 2008 crops, compared to last year say IL Extension economists Gary Schnitkey and Dale Lattz. Those operational costs would be $370 for corn and $220 for beans per acre, and those do not include land costs, such as cash rents or mortgage payments.
• The additional costs result from anhydrous ammonia prices climbing to $700 per ton and total fertilizer costs estimated at $30 more per acre for corn and $10 for beans. They add land costs and corn production rises to $550 per acre and beans to $400 per acre. That means breakeven prices are $3.06 on 180 bu. corn and $7.41 for 54 bu. soybeans.
• If you are still working on crop budgets, and want to calculate the optimum economic rate of nitrogen application, the price of corn and the cost of anhydrous ammonia are moving targets. Purdue economists say the optimum agronomic rate may be 173 lbs of N on a given field, but the optimum economic rate on the same field was 149 lbs of N. Get current rates at: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/NLoss-0204.pdf .
• Calf prices were at record levels in 2005, but they have declined 16¢ per pound from higher feed costs. Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt says that cuts the value of a 500 lb. calf about $80 per head. Across the livestock industry, that is a nearly $3 billion annual loss. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/020408.html .
• Land for pasture grazing has become more scarce and expensive as ground is turned to crop production, says Iowa State livestock economist Shane Ellis. He adds, "If crop prices remain at their current levels it will become increasing difficult for cattle producers to compete without a dramatic increase in beef prices. This is especially true in Iowa where we have seen some of the most dramatic declines in cow numbers." Read more at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo020108.pdf
• With the red ink in the pork market comes a welcome report that consumer demand was up 2.6% in 2007, and total demand up 3.6% with the help of exports and population growth. MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says all meats recorded demand growth last year, but exports and population have pushed pork demand up 26% over 22 years ago. His latest hog outlook is at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull1c.htm .
• If glyphosate won't kill your waterhemp, what do you do, in case it is also immune to ALS, PPO, and triazine herbicides? IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager has a series of integrated approaches to stave off some potential new challenges:
  1) Use a full-labeled rate of a soil-applied herbicide 7 days before to 3 days after planting
  2) Apply 1.0 lb a.e. of glyphosate alone per acre when waterhemp is 3-5 inches tall.
  3) Scout fields 7 days after initial glyphosate application to determine effectiveness
  4) If treatment fails, apply a PPO-inhibiting herbicide at full labeled rate ASAP.
  5) Re-scout in 10-14 days and if treatment failed, rogue survivors before they reproduce.
• Recent devastating weather does not indicate bad weather for the rest of the year says MO climatologist Pat Guinan. He says the typical winter jet stream over the southern US creates increased instability between cold fronts and warm moist air. Guinan says since tornadoes can occur in any month, winter tornadoes are not a bellwether for the year.
• If you are concerned about nitrogen loss from heavy rains, Purdue agronomists say fall applied nitrogen will still be in place. They report most of the losses are in the spring when the temperature warms up. They say before ammonium applied as anhydrous ammonia can be lost, it has to be converted to nitrate, and that has not yet happened. More is at: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/NLoss-0204.pdf .
• It may be tempting to feed your wheat an early helping of nitrogen, but OH agronomist Edwin Lentz says most of the N will be lost if applied to frozen ground and he says wait until spring green-up. He says the benefit of frozen ground application is not a trade off considering the average yield loss is 19% from the loss of the nitrogen fertilizer. He says if you can't wait, ammonium sulfate would have the least loss. http://corn.osu.edu/#A
• Dairy operators are seeing lower prices, following 2007, when international demand and the weak dollar brought Europeans to the US dairycase. MO dairy economist Scott Brown says feed and other production costs will rise, while dairy prices will fade in 2008. Compared to the nearly $22 per cwt market highs, he predicted a 2008 average of $16.90.
• Dairymen will be challenged in 2008 with supply control, since more cows are entering herds along with higher production per cow. Brown says increased feed costs will slow down some production, but there will be a problem finding markets for more milk.
• Vehicle tax deductions can either be based on $.485 per mile in 2007 or actual expenses, and OH farm management specialist Donald Breece says that rate rises to $.505 in 2008. He says a farm business can claim up to 75% of the use of a car or truck as business use without any travel records if it is used most of the day on the farm. Depreciation and cost information is at: http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu/news/index.php#vehicledeductions .

Posted by John Fulton at 7:56 AM | Permalink |

February 7, 2008

Sustainable Agriculture Tour Schedule Announced

"Sustainable agriculture looks a little different as each operation develops its own niche products, agritourism opportunities and other enterprises to maintain or supplement farm income," said Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant, Small Farm and Sustainable Agriculture Extension Specialist who is coordinating the tours.

The schedule for the 2008 sustainable agriculture tours is as follows:

May 18, Eagle Dancer Ridge Llamas, Inc. in East Peoria (www.edrlamas.com/)

June 20, Learn Great Foods in Mount Carroll (www.learngreatfoods.com/)

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July 11, Lyons Fisheries in Sandoval

July 22, Cedar Valley Sustainable Farm Community Supported Agriculture (www.localharvest.org/farms/M5067)

August 8, Organic Apple Field Day at University of Illinois Dixon Springs Agricultural Center, Dixon Springs (www.cropsci.uiuc.edu/research/rdc/dixonsprings)

This tour is being co-sponsored by the Upper Midwest Organic Tree Fruit Growers Network

September 8, Iyabo Farms in Hopkins (www.sustainusa.org/familyfarmed/profile_iyabo.html)

October 3, Mill Creek Farm in Quincy (www.millcreekfarmquincy.com/)

A fee of $20 per person will be charged for each tour, which includes lunch. Registration at least one week in advance is required. Visit www.extension.uiuc.edu/smallfarm/ to register and for more details about each of the tours including a map and agenda. To register by phone, contact Donna Cray at 217-241-4644. For more information, contact Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant (217-968-5512; cvnghgrn@uiuc.edu).

University of Illinois Extension is a statewide educational network that links the resources and research of the University of Illinois to the people of Illinois. The programs and workshops, which take place throughout the state, address issues involving youth, families, community development, agriculture, and natural resources. If reasonable accommodations are needed in order to participate in any of the programs, call 217-241-4644.

The tours are sponsored by the University of Illinois Extension, the North Central Region Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education (SARE) Professional Development Program, the Agriculture Tourism Partners of Illinois (www.agritourismillinois.com), and the Agroecology/Sustainable Agriculture Program at the University of Illinois.

Posted by John Fulton at 10:11 AM | Permalink |

February 4, 2008

Extension Update - from Stu Ellis

• Despite high prices, demand has not softened for US soybeans, says IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good. The soybean crush will be 1-2% above last year from the demand for soybean meal from both domestic and export markets. Good says consumption of soybean oil is also up, even though the crush rate has resulted in near record oil stocks.
• The soybean export market is also strong, and despite differing numbers from the USDA and Census Bureau, Darrel Good believes the current pace of business indicates a slightly higher export total than the 995 mil. bu. forecast by USDA. He says Chinese demand and the size of the South American harvest will be the final determination.
• The export market for corn is also strong and the 2.45 bil. bu. forecast by USDA would be 15% more than last year, but Good says that could be exceeded based on current rates of export business. Like soybeans, the final numbers for corn exports will be influenced by the South American harvest and how the Northern Hemisphere wheat crop rebounds.
• Domestically, the corn demand totaled 3.4 bil. bu. in the first quarter of the marketing year, and Good says that is 15% more than consumed last year. That reflects a 21% rise in ethanol production and a 13% increase in feed use. Read his latest newsletter for more details on usage: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/012808.html .
• The latest Cattle on Feed Report estimated 12.097 mil. head on feed, up 1% from 2007 because of the 4^th quarter 10% surge in feedlot placements caused from the lack of good pasture. However, the report was friendly to the market because placements were lower than expected, marketings were higher than expected, and the feed lot number was less. But Nebraska economist Darrel Mark says, "The level of concern about cattle prices and profits and particularly feed input prices has dramatically increased in the past 2 weeks."
• The Annual Cattle Inventory will be released Friday, and is expected to show a slight decline in the total herd numbers. NE livestock economist Darrel Mark says that should be friendlier to prices, but "This smaller calf supply for so many years has resulted in so much competition amongst cattle feeders for those calves that the profit has more than been bid out of those calves. Cattle feeders can't afford to do this any longer."
• There are no signs pork producers have begun herd reduction says MO livestock economist Glen Grimes, "We hear that some sow packers have animals booked three weeks ahead but it is not showing up in increased sow slaughter of significance as of the most recent data for the week ending January 12." He says the hog futures through Feb. 2009 are averaging $50 per cwt live, and he says now is the time to enter survival mode.
• If you are paying more for Monsanto's triple stack biotech hybrids, IL Extension economist Gary Schnitkey says you will be paying a lower premium for crop insurance on those fields. His analysis of the Biotech Yield Endorsement available in IL, IA, IN & MN, shows discounts may be as high as 44% on APH policies with 65% loss coverage.
• The BYE crop insurance requires 75% of the insured crop is planted with the Monsanto product, the salesman certifies eligible hybrids were used, and spot checks conducted. Several tips for using BYE are included in Schnitkey's latest newsletter found at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_03/fefo08_03.html .
  1) CRC and RA premiums will not be known until early March.
  2) Premiums for optional units with BYE may be cheaper than basic units without BYE.
  3) Qualified hybrids are listed at: http://www.biotechyieldendorsement.com/ .
  4) Premium rate examples are at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/index.asp .
• Indemnity prices for 2007 crop insurance were higher than 2006, and Iowa St. economist Bill Edwards says 2008 will be higher still because of current corn and soybean market conditions. He says even if you don't change your protection level, the dollar value of the guarantee will change, and that will push insurance premiums higher. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/newsletters/nl2008/nlfeb08.pdf .
• Green stem baffled many soybean producers this fall, but IL Extension Crop Specialist Dennis Epplin says soybeans digest their leaves, petioles and stems to complete the pod filling process and add a few more bushels per acre. If the digestion of plant parts is not needed to complete pod fill, then these plant parts remain green, as was observed this fall. Until this theory is proven, Epplin says the only management option is seed selection.
• Grass buffers not only trap sediment, but MO soil scientist Robert Lerch says the grass creates an environment for bacteria in their root zone which degrade herbicides by eating carbon and nitrogen in the chemicals. Lerch says a sloped 25 ft. grass test strip reduced atrazine, metolachlor, and glyphosate movement by 80%, but field conditions may vary.

Posted by John Fulton at 8:53 AM | Permalink |