• How healthy is the farm economy? Many economists have been rhetorically asking that question in the wake of failures in the financial markets here and abroad. Credit has been drying up in non-agricultural markets, but the farm lending season is just around the corner, and will be coming at a time when commodity price strength is being questioned.
• In the past 90 days Dec corn has dropped over $3 and Nov beans have dropped over $6.50 per bu. and marketing specialist Mike Woolverton at Kansas State says supply and demand fundamentals had almost nothing to do with it. He says it was all a function of the financial markets, because of the housing bubble and the subprime mortgage issues.
• The financial companies which assumed the risk in those troubled areas also ran hedge funds and index funds, and Woolverton says when they were unable to liquidate mortgage assets, they had to get cash by offsetting futures and options contracts at large losses. That took billions of dollars out of the commodity market, reducing grain prices.
• At the same time, USDA's stocks report found 83 mil. bu. more corn and 60 mil. bu. more soybeans than what the trade expected. Woolverton says that normally would not generate much concern, but at the time when money is being pulled out of commodities, the increased levels of grain stocks indicates the world economy is slowing down.
• The quarterly grain stocks report estimated corn stocks at 1.62 bil. bu., up 25% from year earlier levels, representing the old crop carryout. On-farm stocks totaled 500 mil. and off-farm stocks totaled 1.12 bil. bu., which was 33% more than 2007 levels.
• The quarterly grain stocks report estimated soybean stocks at 205 mil. bu., down 64% from year earlier levels, with 47 mil bu. on-farm and 158 mil. off-farm. USDA adjusted the 2007 soybean crop estimates by increasing production to 2.68 bil. bu., increasing planted acres to 64.7 mil., and raising the average yield by .5 bu. to 41.7 bu. per acre.
• Corn demand in the coming year will be increased by the Renewable Fuels Standard which continues to ratchet upward. Economist Chad Hart at Iowa State says 10.5 bil. gal. of biofuels are required in 2009, which will consume 3.6 bil. bu. from the 2008 crop and 4.1 bil. bu. from the 2009 crop to meet the demand for 12 bil. gal. of biofuels in 2010.
• Market dynamics include growth in biofuel production, livestock producers adjusting to higher crop prices, higher energy prices supporting biofuels, slow economy domestically and worldwide. Iowa State's Hart says that will keep volatility in the market. He's expecting 2009 corn and soybean prices to parallel 2008 prices of $5.50 and $12.25.
• Global demand for US pork is taking 18% of domestic production, up from 10% a year ago. And Purdue Extension economist Chris Hurt says that is the only reason hog prices were able to recover so sharply this year given the fact domestic production is 7% higher than 2007. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/092908.html .
• But brace yourself says Hurt because that foundation is cracking. China had taken 46% of the growth, but that began to drop even before the Olympics. Russia had taken 13% of the growth, but diplomatic conflicts could jeopardize that business. And Hurt says Russia is attempting to stimulate is own pork industry with government financial help.
• Chris Hurt says the Hogs & Pigs Report indicated higher weaning rates which will not mean a decline in production, despite a smaller breeding herd. With high feed costs, he expects more financial losses for pork producers in 2008. With projected prices in 2009, Hurt says producers could pay about $5.25 for corn and still break even.
• The quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report estimated the herd at 68.7 million, up 2%, but with the breeding herd down 2.6%, and farrowing intentions down 5.6%. Iowa State economists say production will remain above last year through the end of 2008, and 2009 production will decline throughout the year. Market prices are expected to stabilize. http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo100108.pdf
• Because of the delayed harvest, timing will be critical in the fall application of anhydrous ammonia. If the 4 inch soil temperature is below 60 degrees, application can begin, but only with the help of a nitrification inhibitor. If you are not using an inhibitor, do not apply anhydrous ammonia if the 4 inch soil temperature is above 50 degrees. Do not apply any to soils that have a high tendency toward leaching or excessive drainage.
• If you plan to apply manure, poultry litter, or other organic fertilizers because of the high cost of commercial fertilizer, remember their nitrogen source is uric acid and forms of ammonium that will volatilize and be lost into the atmosphere. IL Extension Specialist Fabian Fernandez urges incorporation of them into the soil to avoid volatilization. Read his newsletter on nitrogen at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1041 .
• The nitrogen rate calculator should be one of the tools on your computer desktop. Using your location, plus current prices for nitrogen and current prices for corn, it will guide your decision on the rate of nitrogen to apply that will give you the best financial return. Find it at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx .
• Between soybean harvest and wheat planting, squeeze in a fertilizer application on your wheat ground to help the crop get established and tiller before winter. Extension fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez says the 30 lb. per acre minimal amount is enough because more would create surplus vegetation and result in disease or lodging in the spring. He also says phosphorus will help. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1042 .
• Cost savings occurs with lesser tillage, say Iowa State specialists, who calculate 3-4 gal. of fuel per acre with conventional tillage plus planting and spraying. That compares to 1 gal. per acre for no-till operation. They express concern about tillage in wetter soils, resulting in compaction. Compaction in the top 3-6 inches is due to surface pressure and compaction below that level is primarily associated with axle weight.
• Preliminary results are being published from Univ. of IL test plots for corn rootworm control. Initial findings are at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1038 .
  1) Wet soils at time of rootworm hatch may have caused a wide variation in the results.
  2) Aztec provided most consistent results, with injury ratings lower or equal to Bt seeds.
  3) Bt seeds provided varying results and "are not silver bullets against corn rootworms."
  4) A combination of Bt hybrids and soil insecticides resulted in less root injury.
  5) Researchers are not recommending that a combination always be used.
• Until this year, a low number of soybean aphids found in the fall meant a low number would be feasting on soybean fields the following summer. 2008 should have been a year with few soybean aphids, but it wasn't. Researchers say the fall survey can be helpful in predicting an outbreak, but only if the data is combined with a similar survey of the population of Asian multi-colored lady beetles, which are a major aphid predator.
• Challenge your friends. In some cases, the test weight of corn is inversely proportional to moisture content. IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger says it makes sense that wetter kernels are "a little puffy" which lowers test weight. He says keep that in mind if you are docked on test weight if delivering high moisture corn. Dry grain has better test weight.
• Nafziger is concerned about drydown, with days in the 60's and nights in the 40's. He says corn should be harvested in that case when moisture reaches the mid to lower 20% range. He says corn dries at a slower rate the dryer it gets, and it will slow even further as temperatures drop in October. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1043 .
• Soybean seed quality, which was compromised last year, could also be challenged this year with fungal problems. Plant pathologist X. B. Yang at Iowa State reports the presence of cercospora leaf spot, which appears like SDS or pod and stem blight. It causes a purple discoloration in soybeans, along with poor seed vigor and germination.
• NASS will come calling this winter to find out how much is being paid to cash rent farm land. This new report will quantify levels of cash rent and determine accurate rent values for land in the Conservation Reserve Program. The results of the USDA study will not be released until April, which will be too late to impact cash rent levels in 2009 leases, unless owners and operators have agreed on that variable to adjust rent up or down.
• Settling upon a cash rent is a function of communication between the owner and the operator according to Purdue economist Craig Dobbins. He says, "It's a matter of being able to put yourself in the other's shoes and understanding the kinds of costs and risks that are being taken by all parties involved. As long as people keep communicating with each other, they will eventually find a number that is agreeable and equitable."

• Exports are a function of the dollar and Darrel Good says its value is now a function of the roiling financial markets. The IL marketing specialist says corn exports are behind 2007, but it is early in the marketing year. Since Sept. 1 export inspections have been 50% of last year and through Sept. 11 export commitments have been 60% of last year.
• Soybean exports are also lagging behind 2007 levels, but Darrel Good says unshipped sales exceed 2007 volumes. USDA expects a 13% drop in soybean exports for the marketing year, but the early picture shows a 9% increase. Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/092208.html .
• US grain exports will be competing against global production, which is expected to reach record levels in the current marketing year. For example, wheat production will be large enough to raise ending stocks for the first time in 4 years. However, wheat growing areas of Australia and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather conditions.
• Global coarse grain production is also noted by Extension's Jim Hilker at Michigan State. He says world coarse grain ending stocks in 2009 will be 3 MMT larger than once expected; and while the world corn production estimates have been lowered because of a smaller US crop, the world coarse grain situation looks bearish to the market.
• Hilker's observations on marketing first include a comparison of the Dec corn contract and the Dec light crude oil contract, which he says is a bit scary, then rhetorically asks, "But what do you expect when 25% of your corn crop is used as a competitor to oil?" He says don't carryover any old corn, and consider pricing new corn on sharp upswings in the price of oil. Hilker says the market is apparently willing to pay on-farm storage.
• Regarding soybeans, MSU's Hilker says given soybean production around the world and current ending stocks, the world will not be short on soybeans, assuming South America raises its expected crop. He says the market is willing to pay for on-farm soybean storage, but only into March. After then the spreads narrow and don't cover either storage or interest. He says watch for sharp price upswings to do further pricing.
• Michigan State's Jim Hilker says the wheat basis has problems with predictability. He suggests wheat producers sell cash, and buy futures if they thought the market would rise, or use a basis contract, which does the same, and is more profitable than paying for commercial storage. Hilker says CBOT officials have proposed more delivery points to solve the convergence issue between cash and futures, but he says it will not be solved until futures contracts force delivery. https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• More corn ear rots are showing up, (see the Sept. 19^th edition) and the fungi will grow while corn is in the field or even in the bin as long as moisture is at or above 18%. IL plant pathologist Suzanne Bissonnette says that may determine your priority of when to harvest, particularly if the infection is moderate and wet weather continues.
• Your variety of fungus will determine how dry the corn has to be. If you have diplodia and the corn will be in long term storage, 15-16% should be your target. If you have aspergillus, it will grow in 14-18% moisture and produce aflatoxin, which is not good.
• Make only one combine adjustment and evaluate its success before any other changes says Iowa State. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0923hanna.htm .
  1) With shorter beans, keep in mind that 90% of field losses are at the header.
  2) Each one inch of uncut bean stubble can result in a one bushel per acre yield loss.
  3) If beans are small, reduce cleaning fan speed to avoid blowing soybeans away.
  4) If sieve openings have been reduced, also reduce the airflow to compensate.
  5) Adjust deck plates over snapping rolls for predominant ear size to avoid kernel loss.
  6) If corn is lodged, keep snouts low, drive slower, and harvest "against the grain."
• Hurricane Ike's track through the eastern Cornbelt left many acres of downed corn, and OSU ag engineer Randall Reeder says that means harvest will be more stressful and longer than usual. He's concerned about tired and frustrated farmers ignoring safety:
  1) Find harvesting aids that specifically deal with downed corn.
  2) Before solving an in-field problem, turn off the combine first.
  3) Use any auto steering or guidance equipment available to reduce vision stress.
  4) Adjust the header to accommodate downed corn plants and broken stalks
  5) Tape safety reminders in the combine cab, take breaks, stretch, and drink water.
• Harvest may put you in a no-win situation when it comes to soil compaction. With wet soil and a late harvest, IL Extension's Duane Friend says many producers will take compaction as the lesser evil. If that happens, plant stress will show up next spring.
  1) Restrict trips to specific tracks or lanes. The second trip compacts less than the first.
  2) When unloading, use the combine wheel track on the prior round in the field.
  3) Never cross the field diagonally, even though that may be the shortest distance.
  4) If a semi cannot be parked on the road, at the least, keep them on the headland.
  5) Tires that are over inflated will increase the compaction of the soil.
  6) Soil compaction is cured by wetting/drying/freezing/thawing and just takes time.
  7) Only well-defined compacted layers 4+ inches down are candidates for sub-soiling.
• Alfalfa cuttings have been delayed all year, and you may have one more cutting, but will that interfere with the fall rest period? Iowa St. forage specialist Steve Barnhart says that will continue for 6-10 more weeks. http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/showitem.php?id=101 .
  1) If you don't need the hay, leave it in the field and don't graze in fall or winter.
  2) If you need the hay, wait for a killing freeze to cut it, and leave 4-5 inch stubble.
  3) Cutting hay now causes the plant to re-grow, unnecessarily using its stored reserves.
• When your crops are out, get a soil test and set a date for your quadrennial limestone application. Row crops like a pH of 6.0, and the pH should be 6.5 to 7.0 for alfalfa and clover. It also enhances nitrogen fixation and improves soil structure, and if being spread on a field that will be planted to a legume, spread 6 months ahead for good soil reaction.
• A new crop of winter annual weeds will be germinating in the next couple months, and may be more numerous than last year. Reductions in use of pre-emergent herbicides, a shift to post-emergent use of glyphosate, primarily, and increased no-till practices have spawned the weed crop that Dad never saw. Visit this resource to brush up on winter annuals: http://extension.missouri.edu/explorepdf/regpubs/ncr614.pdf .
  1) Dandelions, marestail, henbit, and pennycress are harder to control in the spring.
  2) If soil moisture is short, control of winter annuals saves moisture for the spring.
  3) Fall herbicide applications can save time in the spring and allow timely planting.
• With late maturing soybeans, wheat will be a late planted crop. IL Extension's Mike Roegge says that means fewer fall tillers will develop and he suggests increasing the seeding rate. He says for each week that seeding is delayed beyond the Hessian fly free date, the seeding rate should be increased 10%. 20-30 lbs of N is recommended also.
• Speaking of Hessian flies, the purpose of planting wheat after the date for your latitude, is to prevent females from laying a full complement of eggs. If wheat has not germinated, the Hessian fly will not have the opportunity for larvae to hatch and survive. They live at the base of the plant, remove plant juices, and the wheat will fail to tiller.
• When harvesting corn stover for ethanol production, your nitrogen bill goes down. That is the thought of MN agronomist Jeff Coulter, who says when 50% to 100% of the residue is removed from continuous corn crops, the optimum N rate is cut 13%. Coulter says less N is needed for the next year because corn residue immobilizes the N and promotes tie up of N by microorganisms in the soil. Read his fact sheet on residue harvesting at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2008/08MNCN28.html .
• Export demand continues to support pork prices where they are. MO economist Glenn Grimes says the value of pork exports per hog slaughtered in Jan-July was $35.89 per head, and that is up 46% from 2007. Grimes says the net exports caused the 9% increase in demand for live hogs for Jan- July, while US consumer demand for pork dropped 4%.
• On the issue of production costs, Grimes and cohort Ron Plain say the 2007-08 marketing year price for corn was $4.20, but that will rise in 2008-09 to a range of $5-$6 according to USDA. The livestock economists say that will increase the cost of hog production by $4-$9 per cwt in the coming year, compared to the past 12 months. For cattle producers they say the higher cost of corn will add $48-$108 per head cost.
• If your farm kid has a desire to be an ag engineer, Cornbelt Land Grant Universities are among the tops says US News & World Report. Illinois is best for the third consecutive year. Iowa St. is #4, Purdue is tied for #5, and Ohio St. & Penn St. are tied at #8.

After the rains of the past few weeks, many are wondering if the soil will ever dry enough to harvest this years crop. There just isn't a great deal of evaporation nor will crops be taking a lot out of the soil to allow drying to occur. Wheat producers are even more concerned since most of that crop is sowed after soybean, and although May planted soybeans are close to mature, the June planted still have quite a bit of pod fill to go yet.

If wheat growers haven't yet placed a seed order, time is of the essence. Wheat varieties are numerous. Utilizing yield trials to determine varieties gives better results. The U of I variety trials are located at this address: http://vt.cropsci.uiuc.edu/wheat.html

The research conducted in IL has shown wheat sown after soybean has a higher yield versus after corn. This is due to better stands behind beans as well as less disease potential. Tillage has increased yield compared to no till wheat after soybean, but probably not to the extent that the extra cost of tillage would outweigh the better yield. However, wheat planted after corn has benefited from a tillage trip.

Wheat seed treated with an insecticide seed treatment have generally yielded positive results at the Orr Research Center. And the further you head south in IL the more positive the results.

Application of 20-30# of nitrogen in the fall is recommend. 150# of DAP would provide this, as well as provide much needed phosphorus. 50# of 0-0-60 would also be required. Both these application rates are based upon the amounts of fertility 75 bushels of wheat would remove from the field. If the soil is low in either nutrient, then additional fertilizer should be added. Remaining nitrogen should be applied in the spring, in a single application.

The fly free date for our area is approximately Oct. 1^{st (note the Logan County dates are September 29 on the north and range to October 3 in the south)}. Seeding at or close to that date would be recommend. 1.2- 1.4 million seeds per acre would be the goal. Consult the seed tag to determine seeds per pound on the variety you are seeding to determine pounds per acre required to achieve this population.

Since the soybean crop needs to be harvested prior to wheat seeding, delayed seeding will be the norm this year. Because delayed seeded usually results in fewer fall tillers that develop, increased seeding rates should be considered. Tillers are what produce seed heads, and you don't want to compromise yield. For each week that seeding is delayed after the fly free date, increase the seeding rate by 10%.

I am not sure how much more rain to expect this season, but I have had enough. I also know that diseases love the wet weather. This season we had a wet July, a dry August, and now a very wet September. The wet July weather that occurred after and during the corn silk stage has probably contributed to the development of Diplodia ear rot that has been found in corn fields since late August. Planting corn after corn and minimum tillage also favors development of this disease, because the organism causing disease survives in corn stalks left on the field from the previous year.

Often the fungus causing Diplodia ear rot will infect the ear just after flowering which causes the husk and the ear leaf to appear bleached and brown, compared to the normal green color of the remaining leaves. If the husk leaves are pulled back to expose the ear and kernels, the ear may appear shrunken and gray-brown in color, while infected kernels will be surrounded by a dense mass of white fungus that fuses the kernels to the husk leaves. The white moldy growth often begins at the bottom of the ear, and if infection occurred early could cover the entire ear or only a portion of the ear if infection happened later. As the season progresses, the white moldy growth will turn gray-brown and small, round, black specks (fungal fruiting bodies) will form scattered about on the husk and kernels.

While the fungus causing Diplodia ear rot will not produce a toxin in the grain, like ear rots caused by Fusarium or Aspergillus fungi, it will cause the grain to be light weight, shriveled, and have lower nutritional value for livestock. Usually this ear rot is not a problem in stored grain, but infected grain should be dried to below 15% moisture to prevent growth by this fungus in storage. A good description and photos of ear rots can be found in the 2007 issue, volume number 21, article 3 of The Bulletin at http://ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin.

Diplodia is not as common as other ear rots, but in wet years like this one, it can be a problem. Management options are limited but include crop rotation and selecting less susceptible hybrids for next year. Talk with your seed dealer, as corn hybrids differ in their susceptibility to Diplodia.

The wet, cool weather poses other harvest concerns, such as lodging of corn in wet soil, being able to get equipment into the wet fields, and the ability of grain to mature and dry. Along with these concerns, I suggest being vigilant about scouting for stalk rots. If Diplodia ear rot is present, this same organism may show up in the stalks as well. The base of corn stalk with Diplodia stalk rot will have small, black specks embedded in the plant tissue. There will be no pink color and the black specks will not rub off as with Gibberella stalk rot. White mold like that seen on the ear kernels may be found in lower stalks but not always, and splitting the stalk in half may reveal internal shredded plant tissue with small, black specks (fungal fruiting bodies).

Effective last fall, the State of Illinois requires many motor carriers to comply with the Unified Carrier Registration Act. The program replaced the State Registration System in Illinois, and requires all farmers and for-hire motor carriers to register. There is an annual registration fee for this program, and it is based on the number of carriers in your fleet.

Many farmers are caught in the requirements of the program because of the interstate commerce aspect of grain sales. Even delivered to a local elevator, grain then moved to a river terminal for export or shipped to another state for livestock feeding makes the grain sale an interstate commerce transaction.

There are two criteria that define whether the vehicle needs to be registered. One is bashed on weight. If the vehicle combination is over 10,000 pounds it is considered a commercial vehicle, regardless of whether it is for-hire. The second test is the interstate commerce part which we have already covered. This program works in concert with USDOT number registration, and the USDOT number is required before application.

Illinois Farm Bureau has put together a good question and answer document on the program, from which I will try to quote with some accuracy. There is no farm exemption from this program. The program is basically aimed at safety, and fees are used to help pay for policing the program. Payment of USDOT and UCR fees may be a part of the vehicle safety inspection.

• USDA's September Crop Report is scheduled for release this morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The crop estimates will be posted at: www.farmgate.uiuc.edu , and also:
  1) Supply and demand balance sheet: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
  2) NASS http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046
• The market is expecting an average of 153.3 bu. for corn, down from the 155 bu. estimate in Aug. Also anticipated for corn is total production at 12.152 bil. bu. and ending stocks for next Aug. at 1.056 bil. bu. down from USDA's 1.133 bil. in Aug.
• The market is expecting a 40.2 bu. per acre average yield for soybeans, compared to the 40.5 bu. average forecast by USDA in Aug. Also expected by the market is a 2.95 bil. bu. crop, with a 146 mil. bu. carryout next August, up from USDA's 135 mil. in Aug.
• Crop size for corn and beans tends to grow in the September Crop Report says Marketing Specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State. Corn production climbs 1% and bean production climbs 1.4%. He says the bigger swings have been in years with unusual weather, lead by 1988 and 1993 for corn and 2003 and 2004 for soybeans. He says, "Based on the 1993 and 2003 crop years, downward revisions in corn and soybean production are more likely given the late planting and flooding." See his charts at: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo090108.pdf#page=4
• Grain exports are headed south says IL Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, compared to the 2007-8 marketing year that may have recorded corn exports at 2.425 bil. bu. But USDA projects exports for the new corn crop at 2 bil. bu. for these reasons:
  1) Foreign grain production will be at record highs, resulting in fewer imports needed.
  2) The stronger dollar means US grain is more expensive in a slower global economy.
• Darrel Good also expects soybean exports to taper off this year for several reasons:
  1) Soybean exports of 1.145 bil. bu. this year will be 13% less or 1 bil. bu. in 2008-9.
  2) Chinese soybean imports that grew 23% last year will only grow 1.5% for 2008-9.
  3) Total world soybean trade will slow, and South American will export more.
  Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/090808.html .
• Grain stocks will be estimated by USDA at the end of the month, advises Jim Hilker at Michigan State. For corn he's expecting the Sept. 1 stocks to be 1.576 bil. or 12% of use. Hilker says exports and feed have been on target and he says carryout should be kept steady in the Sept. 12 Crop Report. https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
• Compare your state to NE, where ag economist Bruce Johnson says the build up of cash receipts has been "phenomenal." He says historically, livestock sales had been 60% of cash receipts, but with 2008 crop receipts double that of 2005, cash receipts from crops will surpass livestock. www.agecon.unl.edu/Cornhuskereconomics/2008/9-10-08.pdf
• Johnson projects NE farm income to be 21% more than 2007 and 90% higher than the previous 10 year average. But he says that is not the case for everyone, since there is a great disparity between crop and livestock producers. He calculates, "The crop sector is staged to reap an additional $1.5 billion of net farm income in 2008, while the livestock sector may well experience a $750 million reduction in net earnings compared to 2007."
• "Markets don't like profits," says MO economist Ray Massey, and ethanol has not only resulted in corn profits, but has caused market volatility and price risk. Massey says profits will go to zero because of increases for crop input prices. "Profits will go toward zero first for ethanol producers, then for crop producers, and eventually for input suppliers and landowners, says Massey, who predicted "a painful transition."
• With high market volatility, vigilant risk management is crucial says Missouri's Massey, and farmers need to keep watch of their financial strength. He says your current ratio of assets to debt should be 1.5 to 2.0 or better. That is $1 of debt for $2 of assets. He also recommended doubling your cash reserves, since production cost has doubled.
• Warm and sunny weather will speed corn dry down and cut your drying costs, although the late planting may mean you'll have drying charges. Peter Thomison at Ohio State says corn will dry 3/4 to 1% per day from mid to late September, but that slows to a rate of 1/2 to 3/4% per day going into October, and is negligible by late November.
• Thomison says count your growing degree days. "Generally, it takes 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25 to 20% requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture. In September we average about 10 to15 GDDs per day. In October (as weather cools) the rate drops to 5 to 10 GDDs per day."
• If you are harvesting corn for dry grain storage, OSU's Thomison says that should begin at 23% to 25% moisture, since waiting until 20% can mean yield losses from stalk lodging, ear rots, and insect feeding damage. The loss of one normal-sized ear every 100 feet of row means a loss of one bushel per acre, which is also two kernels per square foot.
• Use harvest to predict your 2009 weed crop suggests Iowa State's Michael Owen who says use of a single herbicide will quickly allow development of resistant weeds. Also:
  1) Weeds follow tillage patterns and the presence of live weeds indicates resistance.
  2) Once a weed problem is recognized it is usually too late to resolve the problem.
  3) Field ponds that produced only a crop of weeds will have major weeds in 2009.
  4) Field ponds may also warrant additional weed control tactics and separate management
  5) Plan to use an early pre-plant herbicide next year on 2008 problem areas.
• What are your soybean plans for 2009, Roundup Ready beans or conventional beans? MO agronomist Grover Shannon says the tripling of glyphosate prices are causing more farmers to return to a conventional system, using comparatively yielding soybeans, but with a cheaper cost of weed control, and less likelihood of glyphosate resistance. And Shannon says the going price for non-GMO soybeans is about $1 over CBOT prices.
• Scout soybeans for pod damage by bean leaf beetles. Holes will allow disease entry that will cause discolored, moldy, shriveled, or disease beans that otherwise look healthy.
• Compare your state to OH, where OSU agronomists say nearly every farm in Ohio has a field or two that could benefit from planting wheat by reducing problems associated with the continuous production of corn and soybeans. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#D
  1) Select the highest yielding variety, with resistance to multiple diseases and fungi.
  2) Plant in the first 10 days after the fly free date and avoid aphid-borne BYDV.
  3) Use the optimum seeding rate between 1.2 and 1.6 mil. seeds per acre.
  4) Plant seeds 1.5 in. deep, which is critical for tiller development and winter survival.
  5) Apply 20-30 lbs of nitrogen per acre at planting to enhance tiller development.
• High corn prices mean changes in cattle feeding. Nebraska's Darrel Mark says as the feeding cost of gain has doubled in the past two years, there is more incentive to background calves during the winter and following summer on forages and delay placing the cattle on feed until they are long yearlings at the end of the summer grazing season. But he says heavy calves weaned in the fall may have overweight carcasses.
• If you are evaluating retained ownership in the fall calf crop, Mark says decide whether to put them on feed then or wait until they are yearlings next fall. He says yearlings could generate a $69 return per head, compared to $2 return for calves that are fed to be sold in May 2009. Read: http://www.lmic.info/memberspublic/InTheCattleMarket.html .
• Overseas demand for pork, combined with the low value of the dollar, had been keeping the pork market active, but MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says the information won't surface until another month or two, but the action of the market in the past 30 days suggests a slowdown in the phenomenal growth in pork exports.
• Farm Safety Week begins Sept. 21, and is designed to call attention to the hundreds of Cornbelt accidents involving slow moving farm equipment, particularly during the harvest season. Many states have requirements for highly reflective SMV placards, along with strong headlights and plenty of red lights that indicate the width of the equipment.

• USDA's August Crop Report indicated more corn than the market anticipated at 12.3 bil. bu., but the rest of the world is producing a good crop as well. IL Extension's Darrel Good says, "Production prospects have declined for Argentina, but improved for Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and the Ukraine. Coarse grain production outside the US is forecast at a record 760.33 MMT, nearly 5% larger than last year's crop."
• Darrel Good says the same is true for soybeans. "Soybean production in Brazil in 2009 is forecast at 2.3 bil. bu., 55 mil. less than forecast last month but 55 mil. more than produced this year. For Argentina, production is forecast at 1.82 bil. bu., 55 mil. more than forecast in July and 110 mil. more than the 2008 harvest." Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/081208.html .
• What is your guess of futures prices on future dates? Extension economists have submitted their estimates for a wide range of commodities, abbreviated here:
  1) Corn: 12/1/08-$6.63. 3/2/09-$7.16. 6/30/09-$6.89
  2) Beans: 12/1/08-$14.62. 3/2/09-$15.31. 6/30/09-$15.26
  3) Wheat: 12/1/08-$8.60. 3/2/09-$8.68. 6/30/09-$7.98
• Will weather be normal for the rest of the growing season? Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says USDA crop estimates do not consider weather abnormalities, and he says, "The possibility of adversely hot temperatures during the next 4 weeks constitutes the very real risk that the US corn yield could fall below the trend (150.6BPA)."
• Elwynn Taylor says, "Historically crop condition observations become meaningful after mid-August. The 2008 crop to date has persistently scored better than average for the Cornbelt in general. When more than 50% of the crop is rated good to excellent the anticipated yield exceeds the trend. The current corn condition is 67% good-excellent."
• If it is August, expect August weather says meteorologist Jim Noel at Ohio State. "The overall pattern has shifted to near normal temperatures and below normal rainfall and this is expected to continue for the rest of August and possibly into September now. After this week of below normal temperatures and rainfall, temperatures will return to near normal, but rainfall should continue below normal though a few areas may get normal rainfall."
• Soybean aphids have become a serious problem in North and South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, Minnesota, northern Iowa, and western Wisconsin where nearly all fields have been sprayed, some requiring 2 applications. Entomologists are watching the expansion of the outbreak, which could include northwestern Illinois.
• Should you spray aphids? IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey says that depends upon the presence or absence of predator insects, and the number of alatoid nymphs, which have broader shoulders and will develop wings and fly away. Scout for the 250 aphid threshold, and read more at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1018
• Illinois soybean fields are beginning to show evidence of Sudden Death Syndrome, caused by fusarium. Yellow flecks on the leaves appear between the veins, then the leaf tissue dies with the veins remaining green. Roots are already deteriorating from the fusarium toxin that moves upward in the plant. Management includes variety selection with fusarium resistance, planting late, minimal soil compaction, and lack of SCN.
• At mid-August barely half of the soybean crop is setting pods says USDA, and some beans have yet to start blooming. Extension's Emerson Nafziger says, "The lack of warm night temperatures over an extended number of days might be the cause. In any case, plants with few or no flowers are a sign of a crop that is likely to have problems reaching maturity before cool weather starts to limit the crop's ability to fill seeds."
• Nafziger says the soybean plant knows how many pods it can support and aborts the rest. "This is one of the reasons why Kip Cullers of southwestern Missouri, who has set the yield record for irrigated soybeans, focuses on ways to retain pods on the plant. Preventing drought stress through irrigation is certainly the most consistent way to do this. Mr. Cullers also applies fungicides and micronutrients, and he supplements fixed nitrogen with N from poultry litter, in an attempt to maximize pod numbers."
• Late planted beans and insufficient temperatures present a serious challenge to soybeans this year, says Nafziger. He says the only way to exceed 42 bushels is for above normal temperatures in September with adequate soil moisture. But he says if August temperatures spill into September, the signs are not very positive for soybean yields.
• If your soybeans are small and you wonder if they would benefit from a foliar fertilizer; IL Extension's Fabian Fernandez says a lot of research has been done, and the chance of getting a good yield response is very limited. Even with a yield response, the application will not be cost effective. More: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1021 .
• Yellow leaves and stunted ears may also signal visitors to your cornfield. Iowa State specialist Greg Tylka says now is the time to sample the soil around corn roots for corn nematodes. Collect 20 soil cores about 12-inches deep and several root balls from corn stalks with symptoms. Contact university plant clinics about submitting soil for testing.
• Non-GMO cornfields may be hosting the second generation of corn borers, so watch for egg masses nearest the ear. Once the eggs get a black spot the larvae will soon hatch and that starts a 10 day calendar for decision on a rescue treatment. To assist in the decision whether to spray, visit: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/decision/corn_borer_second.html .
• Flooded acres, where no crops were produced this year, need to be managed say Iowa State soil scientists. The lack of crops means the lack of beneficial organisms ready for next year. They recommend a cover crop, such as oats, rye, or winter wheat to generate the biological activity in the soil. Weeds can also work, but the downside is more weeds next year. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0811alkaisibarnhart.htm .
• Flooded acres also need fertility attention, and the Iowa State specialists recommend taking soil samples to determine the nutrient status, particularly phosphorus. They also say to avoid extensive tillage that might create additional compaction problems.
• Corn buyers were happy to see the 12.3 bil. bu. USDA crop estimate, notes NE livestock economist Darrel Mark, "Livestock feeders and other corn buyers found some welcomed news in the report as USDA lowered its marketing year price forecast by $0.60/bu." Mark warns that the crop will be vulnerable to an early frost, "So, livestock feeders should continue to watch the corn market carefully for signs of a potential bottom."
• 2009 may mean more red ink for pork producers, if Extension economists are correct about pork production and prices. MO economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain say the survey predicts third quarter 2008 51-52% lean live hogs to average $52.40 per cwt, fourth quarter $48.36, first quarter 2009 $51.61 per cwt, second quarter $58.46, third quarter $60.25 and fourth quarter 2009 $57.01. The 2009 average price is $56.88.
• Grimes and Plain in their weekly newsletter report, "Based on these forecasts, hog producers that cannot handle more risk should take a long hard look at what the lean hog futures contract is now offering for hedge opportunities. If the above forecasts turn out to be what happens, and they look realistic with current information, hog producers on average will lose money through much of 2009." The same survey predicted corn and soybean meal prices, putting the average breakeven price in the low $60 range.
• 2009 may mean less red ink for cattle producers. The Extension economists survey of cattle futures predicted third quarter 2008 $96.55 per cwt, fourth quarter $100.42 per cwt, first quarter 2009 $100.36 per cwt, $103.16 for the second quarter of 2009, $98.72 per cwt for the third quarter and $102.72 per cwt for the fourth quarter of 2009.
• Grimes and Plain in their weekly newsletter report, "Their forecasts indicate the current live cattle futures should be sold by cattle feeders. Even with higher feed prices, these price levels are likely to hold the cattle herd close to current levels. In other words, unless we have a drought in beef cow country, the herd is not likely to reduce very fast at this price level for feeder cattle." Read more at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull2c.htm .
• Use of miscanthus instead of switchgrass would minimize cropland used for biofuels says IL miscanthus researcher Stephen Long. Ethanol production at current policy goals would require 25% of US cropland planted in switchgrass, but only 9.3% of US cropland if planted to miscanthus. He says it produces 2.5 times the ethanol per acre vs. corn.
• One missing kernel per row at the cob tip is a 5 bu. loss says Purdue's Bob Nielsen. Multiply 1 kernel by 16 rows by 30,000 population, divide by 90,000 kernels per bu.

Area soybean fields have been showing some symptoms of sudden death syndrome for about a week, but symptoms become more noticeable by the day. Following is a press release describing the disease.

Soybean fields are showing classic foliar symptoms of yellowing and browning between green leaf veins. This is usually the foliar symptom associated with sudden death syndrome (SDS) of soybean. However, this foliar symptom is also characteristic of brown stem rot (BSR) and stem canker diseases in soybean. According to Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing, Extension Specialist for Crop Systems, with University of Illinois Extension, you have to remember to look at and split open the stems and roots before determining if the foliar symptoms are caused by the pathogen causing SDS or by those causing BSR or stem canker. In some years, plants with these pathogens may not even develop leaf symptoms.

Ortiz-Ribbing, says," I just looked at soybean plants this morning having classic foliar symptoms, but when I split open the stems and root systems there was browning to indicate the disease was probably not sudden death (SDS) but brown stem rot (BSR)."

How you can tell the difference? Look inside. Plants with BSR may have reddish-brown discoloration of the vascular system and pith of the roots, crown, and also the stem above the soil line, often appearing at the leaf nodes. The vascular browning becomes more continuous as susceptible plants mature. Plants with SDS have a gray-brown discoloration but the pith is white.

Some uniform reddish-brown vascular discoloration can occur with SDS but without a streaking pattern. Plants with stem canker can also be confused with SDS, however, soybeans with stem canker have sunken reddish-brown cankers on the lower stem and plants with SDS do not have cankers. In addition, plants having SDS have will drop their leaflets prematurely leaving leaf petioles attached to the stem. Leaflets on soybean plants having BSR may have a tendency to remain on the plant.

Ortiz-Ribbing commented, "I would not expect to see SDS on soybeans planted in June, but those that were able to get planted in early May prior to or during the cool, wet weather, could be showing symptoms. Remember to check stems for cankers and split stem and roots to check for browning in addition to observing foliar symptoms."

• Wheat production was higher this year, and that means more wheat is available as a livestock feed, which will dampen the demand for higher priced corn. That is the observation of Purdue economist Chris Hurt, who notes a 70% increase in soft red winter wheat in the Cornbelt. Since wheat has a feed value that is 10% greater than corn, and wheat is currently selling for 10-20¢ less than corn, livestock feeders are moving there. Hurt says that dynamic caused USDA to cut its old crop corn use by 100 mil. bu.
• The soybean basis may improve says Hurt who recommends separating a forward contract into its two components. He says sell the futures or options with the help of a commodities advisor and broker. At that point, the basis remains unpriced, and he says the basis could improve 20-40¢ yet per bushel. Read more of Chris Hurt's newsletter at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=56 .
• Flooded and washed out fields are not excuses for non-delivery of contracted grain say a trio of IL ag law specialists. Their interpretation of the law is that a farmer can always satisfy a contract obligation by purchasing grain and delivering it to the elevator, instead of the grain lost to a flood. It is called "breach of contract," and their explanation is at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/legal/articles/ALTBs/ALTB_08-04/ALTB_08-04.pdf .
• Elevators can seek legal remedies, which the IL ag lawyers say includes the elevator buying grain to replace its commitments, then suing the farmer for the cost of the replacement grain, which could be at a premium to the original forward contract price.
• To avoid a breach of contract, farmers are advised to contact an attorney and negotiate a settlement which might be at a lesser price than the cost of the replacement grain. An effort to discuss the problems and offer a settlement may help avoid other incidental costs such as attorney fees for the elevator. Elevators may also have a variety of options.
• Diesel fuel prices certainly are not headed down anytime soon, says Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter. His projections of diesel fuel prices, based on NYMEX futures, indicate prices will be well above 2007 levels through the fall harvest season and into the spring. Read more: http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf
• If those diesel fuel costs prompt you to better manage your power equipment needs, NE Extension Specialist Tom Dorn has created a Fuel Cost Estimator, which allows you to calculate your per hour and per acre fuel costs for future projections. Find it at: http://hardin.osu.edu/agriculture/ag-newsletters/fuelcostestimator-2008.xls
• Cattle inventories continue to decline and that implies higher prices for cattle and less demand for feed grains. Purdue economist Chris Hurt says beef cow numbers have dropped about 1% during the year since calf prices are below the cost of production. Feedlot placements are down 9% and cattle on feed numbers are down 4% from last year.
• Chris Hurt says cattle prices would be even lower, were it not for improvements in trade and the low value of the dollar. Jan. thru May saw exports rise 34% from last year. He says with the weakness of the dollar, USDA is likely to revise its forecasts for beef trade. Exports had been projected at 18% and imports are down twice as much as expected.
• Beef prices will have strong fundamental support in the last two quarters of the year and Purdue's Hurt anticipates record high prices. He says that means a $97 average in the third quarter and a $100 average in the fourth quarter. That is a $95 average for the year and Hurt expects to see new record high cattle prices in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
• Strong cattle prices are also seen by Missouri economist Ron Plain, who says, "Feeder cattle prices, even though they are down from the high, are still quite strong and cow-calf producers have not been stressed financially enough to reduce the cow herd at a rapid rate. If the cow herd is as large as we believe, the 2008 calf crop will likely be down only slightly from a year earlier and cattle slaughter will be close to a year earlier for the next 18 months. Therefore, the prices for live cattle in the futures market look high to us."
• Soybean aphid populations are increasing and moving into fields across the Cornbelt. Entomologists in MN, SD, and IA all reported numbers at or above the 250 aphid per plant threshold for consideration of treatment. Higher temperatures will slow aphid multiplication. Specialists tell farmers to sample at least 20 plants per field. The bug experts say the 250 threshold should still be used despite increased soybean values.
• Will lady beetles show up in great enough numbers to control the aphids? That is an unanswered question, but natural enemies such as predator insects, rain, hail, and disease all slow the rate of population increase say MN Extension Specialists. Doubling of the population usually takes 4-5 days, but can take as few as 2-3 days if temperature conditions are cool enough, if predators are few, and on-going immigration.
• Western bean cutworm populations are increasing and moving across the Cornbelt, also. IL entomologist Kevin Steffey says the pest has not established itself as a threat to corn production in all areas, but the numbers being captured in traps are causing him to reconsider his perceptions. He says not only the numbers have to be significant, but farmers have to identify ear damage, and that it was caused by the bean cutworms.
• Scouting for western bean cutworms should be underway. Evidence of the pest is egg masses and small larvae on the upper leaves. Once the larvae hatch and work their way into the open end of the ear, then any effort at control with insecticides will not work. The economic threshold for treatment is 8% of the plants infested with eggs and larvae. Pictures of adults and eggs are at. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1003
• If your corn has pollinated then Japanese beetles will not be a threat, but that is not the case in soybeans. Japanese beetles will defoliate soybean leaves, and with high futures prices, it will be cost effective to treat them. The threshold is active defoliation of 10-15% of leaves at the R3 growth stage, which is the beginning pod stage.
• Reports are mixed about the prevalence of corn rootworms. Entomologists say the number of adults around the Midwest have been fairly low, indicating widespread mortality earlier in the year. But in some IL Extension test plots, where corn root balls were dug, washed, and analyzed larvae were sufficient to inflict serious injury in some areas. Farmers are urged to do the same to evaluate the results of their rootworm control.
• New insecticides are coming onto the market for 2008 use in field crops:
  1) Leverage 2.7 controls soybean aphids, Japanese beetles and bean leaf beetles in soybeans, but has a minimum of 45 day interval between spraying and harvest.
  2) Hero is labeled for both corn and beans and controls corn rootworm adults, Japanese beetles, and two-spotted spider mites. It has a 21 day pre-harvest interval.
  3) Cobalt can be applied to alfalfa, corn, and beans for a control of a variety of insects and two spotted spider mites. It has a pre-harvest interval of 30 days for soybeans.
• Wheat growers will face late planting in the fall, if their acreage is following corn and soybeans which were planted late and will mature late. IL Specialist Emerson Nafziger says interest in wheat should remain high this fall with the help of high prices. He says seed should be in good supply, given the cool spring and good yields from the 2008 crop.
• Corn planting dates dictate GDD requirements according to IN and OH research. For each day past May 1, about 6.5 fewer GDD were required from planting to maturity. That means a 2,700 GDD hybrid only needs 2,500 if planted at the end of May, about 2,400 if planted by June 15, and about 2,300 if planted by the end of June. Read more at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1007 .
• Cooler air penetrating the Cornbelt beginning in late August has a lot to do with corn reaching maturity says IL Specialist Emerson Nafziger. And he says the likelihood of frost increases at that point. Early frost occurs 1 year in 10 at the point where GDD accumulations have slowed to 10-12 per day. He says a 50% chance of frost occurs when GDD accumulations reach only 7-8 per day, which are about two weeks apart.
• Fast facts about corn will give you a reputation and add life to coffee shop discussions:
  1) Corn tassels produce between 2 million and 25 million pollen grains.
  2) Pollen grains are 80% water when shed and die when water content decreases to 40%.
  3) Up to 1000 ovules form per ear but we normally harvest 400 to 600 kernels per ear.
  4) As silks emerge, they grown as much as 1.5 inches per day.
  5) Unusually long silks are a symptom that the ear was not pollinated.
  6) Silks fall off fertilized ovules and remain attached to unfertilized ovules.
  7) 85% of grain yield is from kernel numbers per acre and 15% from kernel weight.

• Corn prices have declined $2 since the June highs, and IL Extension's Darrel Good says that has revived ethanol profitability. "Lower crude oil prices have resulted in lower prices for ethanol. The average price of ethanol at Iowa plants declined from $2.82 per gallon on July 3, 2008 to $2.57 per gallon on July 18. The drop in ethanol prices over the past two weeks has been more than offset by the decline in corn prices. Spot cash prices for corn, ethanol, and distillers' grain suggest that the current gross crush margin is at the high end of the margins experienced over the past 11 months. Corn consumption for ethanol should continue to increase as forecast as corn prices follow crude oil prices."
• Good is also watching crop ratings, and says, "As of July 13, only 13% of the corn crop was in the silk stage, compared to 50% on the same date last year and the 5-year average of 36%. Recent weather conditions, however, suggest that maturity will progress rapidly." He's expecting volatility to continue in the corn market. Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/072108.html .
• Agreement on the weather comes from Kansas State's Mike Woolverton, who says, "We are dodging the bullet of excessive July heat damaging late pollinating corn," and he expects the national average yield to be higher than currently projected. Read his newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Woolverton says wheat has been damaged the least by the current price slide and has only dropped $1.50 since harvest began. "The surprise was price didn't fall further in the face of a projected 9% increase in global wheat production this year." He says the current Kansas City cash bid of $7.82 has held up because of low global stocks, high global demand, and it will take a large amount of wheat to fill pipelines and warehouses.
• Of the $4 increase in corn prices, $3 is due to oil prices and $1 is attributable to the ethanol subsidy, according to Purdue economist Wally Tyner in a new study for the Farm Foundation. His colleague Phil Abbott says the weak dollar has caused all commodity prices to rise, and whatever affects the dollar will also influence food prices. He said since 2002 the dollar has depreciated 45% and agricultural exports have increased 54%.
• The Purdue study on food and fuel prices says decreased investment in agricultural research has lead to lower production growth, reduced stocks, and set the stage for higher commodity prices. But they said speculators have not had an impact. They believe the market is more volatile, but price levels have not increased because of speculators.
• Heading into August, Ohio State meteorologist Jim Noel expects near normal rainfall and temperatures. But he says the August and September pattern may be slightly drier than normal. He does not see any long stretches of 90 degree days, and says it might be one of the cooler summers in that regard. He says the heat will stay in the western US.
• Count your GDD's. Extension specialist Emerson Nafziger says early May corn has accumulated 1,500 growing degree days since planting and only needs 1,200 more to reach maturity. He says it takes about 50 days to do that at this point in the season. Nafziger says so far the summer has been good in overcoming late planting problems.
• You cannot cure uneven cornfields says Emerson Nafziger caused by unevenly wet soil conditions where corn will more quickly show water and nutrient stress. Before hiring a commercial sprayer, he suggests scouting the field to map out the greatest area for yield potential and focus any rescue spray on that instead of corn that may not mature.
• Corn silking is 12 days late in Iowa, says Iowa State specialist Roger Elmore, and he says June 30^th replanted acres will be silking in mid-August. Elmore says a late frost could allow 96% of optimum yield, but an early frost means a 45% yield. He's warning farmers not to apply fungicides until after tasseling or it will damage the ear formation.
• Aerial sprayers are busy as farmers try to control rust and fungus in corn. Extension's Carl Bradley says the timeframe is from tasseling to blister stage if you are going to spray. He urges you to check the susceptibility of your hybrids to rust and fungus before spending the money. But he says with late corn, the risk for yield loss due to rust and other foliar diseases does increase. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=998
• If you applied N earlier and your corn looks healthy, Extension fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez says there should be no concern about it running out of N. If the corn was late, your concern should be on kernel development, and a short crop will not need as much N as in a typical year. Corn deficient in N can benefit if applied before tasseling.
• Soybean prospects are questionable says Emerson Nafziger at Illinois because of the late blooming and podding, unless it can be sustained over a long period of time and a friendly September. He says pods and seeds fill faster with 80 degree days and 70 degree nights, but divergence from that means fewer pods, seeds, and lower yields.
• Japanese beetles are more of a problem this year than last say Extension entomologists, who report 417,102 caught in 1 trap over the course of a week. However, specialists say populations are highly variable, and are worse in some areas and less of a problem in others. Read more at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=992 .
• Keep your fingers crossed that California researchers may have found a chemical to keep male Japanese beetles from finding females, and when their formula was tested, captures of Japanese beetles declined. IL Extension's Mike Gray calls that "exciting."
• If you need to control Japanese beetles, Mike Gray and Kevin Steffey at Illinois suggest:
  1) Pyrethroids kill Japanese beetles on contact, but they also are repellent to beetles.
  2) High temperatures may reduce the efficacy of some pyrethroids
  3) Tank-mixing different insecticides should not be necessary in most situations.
  4) Assess the situation for the entire field, and spray only where necessary.
  5) Japanese beetles become a non-issue in cornfields after pollination is complete.
• Soybean aphid populations are increasing say crop scouts participating in a survey. Specialists say if a plant is found with numerous aphids, it warrants being vigilant well into August. The 2006 aphid population began to increase beginning late August into mid-September, and at that point beans were beyond being affected by aphids.
• The cold, wet spring did have a detrimental impact on insects in IN and OH says Purdue entomologist John Obermeyer. He says the floods drowned corn rootworms and Japanese beetles, and very few are being found this year, and he expects low numbers in 2009 also.
• IL corn rootworms apparently were not seriously affected by the cool temperatures, cold, wet soils, and late planting. Entomologists at the University of Illinois report "respectable levels of pruning" as they dig rootballs on corn stalks to assign root ratings to various insecticides. The analysis and insecticide evaluation is several weeks away.
• Western bean cutworms are being found more frequently, and in increasing numbers. Extension Specialist Kevin Steffey says any corn that does not have the Herculex I Insect Protection trait should be scouted for the adults. He says look for eggs and larvae on the top side of corn leaves from the ear to the tassel, and the objective is to kill the larvae before they reach the ear. An 8% infestation of plants is the threshold for spraying.
• You may be bumping the calendar in spraying weedy beans says Weed Scientist Aaron Hager, because of the lateness of planting. He says post emergent sprays are restricted to either a developmental stage of the soybean or days prior to harvest. Hager says violation of the label means chemical residue may be on harvested beans or yields may be reduced. Check his chart before spraying: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=997
• The decline in corn prices means it is time for cattle feeders to "pencil out some break-evens and see if feeding yearlings or calves could be profitable," says Nebraska livestock economist Darrell Mark. "And, for those with cattle on feed and purchasing corn, it is a time to watch for a bottom in the corn market and consider making purchases."
• Since corn prices dropped, Darrell Mark says the spread between calf and yearling prices has not widened as would have been expected. Instead, he says calves have become cheaper compared to yearlings. "And, that current benefit is reflected in a bottom-line for feeding calves that is almost $40/head better than yearlings," he says. Read his newsletter at: http://www.lmic.info/memberspublic/InTheCattleMarket.html .
• The export market is doing more than its share for the price of hogs says Ron Plain at Missouri. May pork exports were almost double that of May 2007 and contributed $43.62 per head slaughtered. For Jan. to May, exports averaged $33.51 per head in value; and Plain says 26.5% of every hog slaughtered in the US is exported.

"These cost increases will lead to higher breakeven prices for both corn and soybeans," said Gary D. Schnitkey, U of I Extension farm financial management specialist. "Higher costs will cause farmers to more closely examine how much to adjust cash rent bids. Higher costs also may influence marketing and crop insurance decisions."

Schnitkey's report, "Dramatic Increases in Corn and Soybean Costs in 2009," (http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_13/fefo08_13.html) is available on U of I Extension's farmdoc website.

The cost increases were projected for central Illinois farms having high-productivity farmland.

"Input prices, particularly for fertilizers, are uncertain and could be different than those we used in the study," he said. "It is safe, however, to estimate large production cost increases for both corn and soybeans in 2009."

For corn, non-land production costs for 2009 are projected at $529 per acre, a $141 per acre increase from 2008 levels of $388 per acre. Between 2003 and 2007, non-land production costs averaged $286 per acre. Production costs for 2009 are projected to be $243 per acre higher than the 2003-07 average, an increase of 85 percent.

For soybeans, non-land production costs for 2009 are projected at $321 per acre, up by $82 over 2008 costs of $239 per acre. Between 2003 and 2007, non-land costs for soybeans averaged $180 per acre. Productions costs for 2009 are projected to be $4141 higher than 2003-07 levels, an increase of 78 percent.

"Fertilizer is the input with the large cost increase," said Schnitkey. "For corn, fertilizer costs in 2009 are projected at $215 per acre, an increase of $97 per acre over the 2008 projected level of $118 per acre.

"For soybeans, fertilizer costs in 2009 are projected at $98 per acre, a $53 increase over the 2008 level of $45 per acre."

He noted that projected 2009 fertilizer prices are significantly above fertilizer prices in recent years.

"Besides fertilizer, seed costs are projected to increase," he noted.

Also up in the 2009 projections are insurance and power costs.

Based on yield expectations of 191 bushels per acre, the 2009 breakeven price for corn is $3.82 per bushel. The soybean breakeven price is $9.65 per bushel.

"These breakeven prices are significantly higher than historic commodity prices," Schnitkey said. "Corn, for example, averaged close to $2.40 per bushel between the mid-1970s to the middle 2000s.

"Large income losses would occur if commodity prices returned to historical averages."

• Watch for today's USDA Supply and Demand Report to provide some yield estimates that will take the flooding into account. USDA last estimated corn at 149 bu., based on the slow planting rate, but not on lost acres or ponded fields. Soybean yields will get some attention, based also on acreage, but little on plant development and maturity.
• The yield and production estimates from the July report will figure prominently in the market moves over the next few weeks, says ag economist Chad Hart at Iowa State. "Another yield adjustment in corn could push estimated production below 11.5 billion bushels, well below last year's record production. This would tighten the outlook for corn as projected usage was already above estimated production and similarly for soybeans.
• Regarding beans, even at trend yields, if demand holds as projected, 2008 ending stocks could approach 100 million bushels, below the carryout projected for 2007. Any sort of downward yield adjustment would continue to tighten an already tight market.
• Have you looked inside a corn whorl lately? That is the home to a wide range of bugs that are defoliating corn from the inside out. Unfortunately, Extension entomologists in the Cornbelt agree that little is known about such an impact, and have had to use data from hail defoliation to provide insight about how badly corn can be damaged.
• Corn growers and researchers have found whorls to be harboring fall armyworms, Japanese beetles, and first generation European corn borer. Specialists say the winter did not increase their mortality, and the delayed planting and delayed corn development this year have synchronized V6-VT stages of corn with a host of defoliating insects.
• So what do you do? Specialists say the defoliation looks worse than the effect it will have on yields. Species should be identified and evaluations made of their damage, which they add, tassel destruction is not an issue. But silk clipping needs to be monitored. Find out more: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=979 .
• High valued corn is even in more jeopardy from silk clipping insects, such as Japanese beetles and corn rootworm beetles. "An insecticide application may be warranted when there are 5 or more rootworm beetles per plant, pollination is not complete, and silk clipping is observed. An insecticide application may be warranted when there are 3 or more Japanese beetles per ear and pollination is not complete. Entomologists say the numbers of Japanese beetles may be overwhelming, but just protect the corn silks.
• Late planted corn and beans may be hosting black cutworms. Normally they hurt young corn, but this year, the late planted fields are giving them a second wind. Crop scouts report the population of a replanted soybean field was clipped about 50%.
• Western bean cutworms are becoming prevalent, and spreading quickly across the Cornbelt and even into Ontario, Canada. IL Extension entomologists say they are apparently replacing many of the insects killed off by YieldGard and Agrisure. So it seems that the western bean caterpillars are not hurt by those Bt genes. They say the Herculex Insect Protection products are an alternative. If an insecticide is needed, the determinant is when 8% of the plants are infected before larvae move to the ears.
• Soybean aphids remain in relative seclusion or in very small numbers that have escaped crop scouts. Some discoveries have also found predators along with the aphids that have helped keep populations down. However, IL Extension entomologist Kevin Steffey says temperatures from 70 to 86 degrees will allow aphid populations to double in 3-4 days.
• Is there a need to spray soybeans with a foliar fungicide? X.B. Yang at Iowa State says, "This year would be the year to see the benefits unless we are fooled by Mother Nature and the rest of season becomes hot and dry." He adds, "The chance to see yield benefits from a spray so far is much higher than most normal years."
• Is there a need to spray soybeans with a foliar fertilizer? Agronomist Antonio Mallarino says, "The short answer is that it may, but probably not in fields that have been well fertilized or where growth is limited by factors other than nutrient supply."
• If your county was one of those in which USDA released the CRP for early grazing, you need to evaluate the benefit of the additional pasture with the fact that your CRP rental payment will be reduced by 25%. That calculation will also have to include the cost of fences and water supply for the livestock. A modified conservation plan must be submitted, and the FSA office must approve the plan. Find the list of states & counties www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=2008/07/0179.xml .
• If you can wait until August 1, you can either graze or bale hay on your CRP for only a nominal fee. Iowa State agronomist Stephan Barnhart says most CRP is going to have weeds and brush along with any grass that will reduce the value of the hay and could damage baling equipment. He says the nutritive value of the crop is low, because plants have now begun to lose their protein content and have begun accumulating fibrous tissue.

• "No one in the grain trade believes the USDA numbers are accurate," says Kansas State's Mike Woolverton about the acreage and yield estimates in the June Supply Demand report. USDA's projection is 86 mil. acres of corn and 74.8 mil. acres of beans, but those numbers will be adjusted with a flood update Monday, June 30^th when USDA releases its Planted Acreage Report. You can read more from Woolverton's newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• "Yield is even more difficult to forecast this year than acreage," says Woolverton. He adds, "Corn and most soybeans were planted late into cold, wet, compacted soils. All those factors will drag the national average yield down, but no one knows by how much." He projects corn to be pollinating in the heat of the summer, and he says it is too early to be concerned about a national average soybean yield, but he's concerned about frost.
• Woolverton's description of wheat is widely varying yields, reduced test weights, reduced protein content, and higher elevator prices than producers expected to see at harvest time. Kansas City cash wheat is over $9, since wheat has benefited from higher oil prices that have been pulling up corn and soybean prices with the crude oil price.
• Near normal rain and heat are expected over the next month by Ohio State meteorologist Jim Noel. He says there is still a risk for heavier rainfall, but the risk for hot and dry weather is low through the month of July. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#L .
• But near term heat is expected by Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. "Well-established crops are likely to benefit, but heat can stress poorly rooted plants. Generally, temperatures slightly warmer than normal before the 4th of July are of benefit to yield and detrimental to crops thereafter. Rain prospects have declined from the multi-year peak of the past few weeks to near normal. The National Weather Service outlook for July slightly favors temperatures in the coolest 1/3 of all years; which is desirable." He is still forecasting a 148 bu. national average corn crop and a 37 bu. soybean crop.
• Bad spring weather was not limited to your neck of the woods, says NE climatologist Al Dutcher in the NE Cropwatch http://cropwatch.unl.edu/ . He says weather models are drying out, compared to weather trends that caused problems across the Cornbelt:
  1) 83 of the 99 counties in Iowa have been declared disaster areas due to flooding.
  2) In NE an estimated 500-600 center pivot irrigation systems received tornado damage.
  3) Iowa has lost 1.3 mil. acres of corn from flooding, and up to 3.3 mil. Cornbelt wide.
• Hard to believe, but it is farm program sign-up time. In addition to signing up for direct and counter-cyclical payments, USDA will also take your name for the new 2009 ACRE program. That program reduces your direct and marketing loan benefits by 20% and 30% respectively, but provides an additional payment that averages the 2008 and 2009 marketing years and if the weather market is active, the payment could be high.
• The prevented planting period has arrived for most Cornbelt locations. NE Extension's Paul Burgener says anything planted now is uninsurable. "For those producers carrying APH, CRC, or RA contracts, prevented planting is an option if the crop cannot be planted due to excess moisture or flooding. The rules for prevented planting are complex, and a visit with your insurance professional is recommended. Those producers who are carrying GRP or GRIP insurance are not eligible for prevented planting payments."
• Late replanting can still generate income. Regardless of hybrid maturity, July 1 planting may yield around 30%. Earlier maturities resulted in drier grain at all planting dates, but they also yielded less than full season hybrids. Iowa St. research indicates an early fall frost can destroy or dramatically reduce seed yields. Read much more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/062401RogerElmore.htm .
• 3 mil. acres of corn and beans in Iowa have been flood damaged, with 11% of corn to be replanted and 8% was flooded. Although mid-June is behind us, corn prices are causing many producers to consider replanting despite the yield loss. At this point, research show a 52% relative yield potential is possible with a population of 32,000.
• Soybean survival after a flood depends on the type of soil present in the field. When flooding occurs at the V-4 stage, MN researchers report yield loss of 1.8 bu/A per day of flooding on clay soil, but only 0.8 bu/A per day of flooding on silt loam soils.
• While the Cornbelt is wet, the Gulf states are dry and that means soybean rust is not spreading at this point. Ohio State's Anne Dorrance says only one Texas kudzu patch has Asian rust, and while it was found on soybeans in the Florida panhandle, it was only one pustule in 150 soybean leaves, which was "not much to get excited about."
• The data comes from Illinois, but the entire Cornbelt may be in need of an initiative to establish grass waterways. IL Extension specialist Bob Frazee says the latest cropland survey indicates 25% of the IL acreage is now incurring major damage from concentrated water flow and ephemeral erosion, certainly exacerbated by this spring's heavy rains.
• If your wheat looks sick it could be attributed to a variety of fungal diseases resulting from the cold, wet spring. Wheat generally outgrows such maladies as pythium root rot, bacterial leaf blight, and wheat streak mosaic virus, but this year has given it a challenge. None of the pathogens can be controlled by foliar fungicides, so don't waste the money. Next fall, ask your seed dealer for wheat varieties that are less susceptible to the fungi.
• Crazy top may be prevalent in the Cornbelt, because of the saturated soils and rains that kept whorls of corn plants full of water says MO Extension's Laura Sweets. That is the environment for a downy mildew fungus that causes the misshapen plants. It may be throughout the field, or in just a circle around a pond. Since losses are minimal, there are no control measures that are warranted, unless it is improved soil drainage in the field.
• Heavy weed infestation could have resulted from heavy rains that neutralized some herbicides or hurt canopy development. Weeds that emerge after the V3 stage in corn are at a disadvantage, and their impact may be minimal unless they completely cover the soil. Iowa State's Bob Hartzler says 3-4 in. weeds in 30 in. corn do not warrant a spray.
• This may be one year when you have weedy fields at harvest time, but Hartzler says that may be something you just have to ignore for now. He says late emerging weeds will have minimal impact, but may produce a lot of seed, and create a dense weed mass next year. If you are aware of such a potential problem, create a 2009 weed management plan.
• If you had no chance to apply pre-emergent weed control, short corn should be treated as soon as possible to avoid further yield loss from weed competition. Your weeds may be 5-6 in. tall, and a 5-10% yield loss on 150 bu. corn is worth $90 on $6 corn, and that cost estimate is increasing says IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager.
• Environmental factors have caused a thin cuticle on corn leaves, and that may be the reason corn is showing crop injury from post emergent herbicides. With wet soils causing stress, crop injury becomes more common, particularly if crop oil was used.
• Hager warns about potential problems with applications of post emergent herbicides to corn that may be older than the product label allows. Its height may be short, but it may be physiologically older, and he says do not apply the product if the corn is too old. Hager says if any tank-mixed products are used; follow the most restrictive product label.
• If soybeans were planted into a mass of winter annuals, and summer weeds are now coming on strong, Hager suggests delaying any burndown herbicide for several days after the soybeans are planted. He says the planting activity may have disturbed the winter annuals enough for them to shut down their metabolism and halt any herbicide uptake.

• If it seems that high water years in the Midwest are increasingly common since about 1970; they are, says IA State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor. Compared to 1993, he says the flood arrived earlier, water levels were higher in many places, and this year the rain and flooding were more widespread in the Midwest than was the case in 1993. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0613ElwynnTaylor.htm .
• The climate has changed, says Taylor, because the Midwest receives 10% more annual precipitation since 1980 than prior to 1970, which doubles the stream flow. From 1930 to 1970 there were 2 "high water years", but since 1970 there have been 12 "high water years." He says the 200 year floods of the past can now be expected every 33 years.
• Weather patterns similar to this year occurred in 1947, with many high flood reports, followed by a severe Cornbelt drought, says Elwynn Taylor at Iowa State. "The chance of changing to drought conditions appears to be about 25% and to the warm and dry side of usual (sufficient to reduce Cornbelt yields to below trend) is about 62%."
• USDA's June 30^th Planted Acreage Report will contain updated information about flooded crops after all. The National Ag Statistics Service will re-visit farms this coming week that were surveyed in early June to ascertain water damage and producers' plans for using the flooded fields. NASS says it will also conduct a more extensive update of planted and harvested acreage in July for a more accurate August Crop Report on 8/12.
• A fair amount of crop loss and demand rationing are already priced into the corn market with December 2008 futures approaching $8, says Extension's Darrel Good at Illinois. "The worst of the crop stress may have passed and more favorable growing conditions are forecast. Corn prices may now moderate somewhat, at least until more is known about crop size." More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/061608.html .
• The global soybean situation remains clouded by the standoff in Argentina between farmers and the government, according to Mike Woolverton at Kansas State. "Lack of a suitable government response to the on and off farmer's strike is causing a political crisis and has prevented Argentinean soybean exports for several months." Woolverton says US beans have filled the gap, which has reduced our carryover and raised prices.
• Woolverton also says the Brazilian harvest may have been less than USDA estimates, since the Minister of Agriculture says it was 59.85 mmt, not USDA's guess of 61mmt. Woolverton also believes Brazil will not expand soybean production as much in 2008/09.
• Did you sell at the Feb. highs, Melvin Brees asks? "Many producers now think they sold too early, sold too much, sold at too low of a price and some maybe even sold more than they may produce. What seemed like an easy decision to sell at almost unheard of prices in late winter now appears to have been the wrong decision. However, selling near record high prices is probably something that should be done again." Read more at: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf .
• Brees, at the Univ. of MO, says corn and beans remain in a steep uptrend signaling that prices will move higher. But he also says "downside price risk is also huge." Brees says many bullish factors are priced into the market, and moderating weather will reduce the uncertainty of crop size, with prices moving lower. Many bearish factors include:
  1) Livestock producers are liquidating to cut costs so feed demand will decline.
  2) Exports will weaken from a stronger dollar and increasing transportation costs.
  3) Weaker oil prices will squeeze ethanol demand, leading to refinery slow downs.
  4) Limits placed on speculative trading would cause liquidation and a price collapse.
  5) Opening the CRP for cropping would increase 2009 acreage and lower prices.
• Cash prices for beans are catching up to futures, calculates Purdue's Chris Hurt, "Soybeans are getting hard to find and basis levels have reflected the shortage that is developing this summer. Basis levels moved from about $.50 to $.60 under futures in late winter to about $.15 to $.25 under currently. Hurt's latest newsletter can be read at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=55 .
• Hurt says, "July futures reached $15.96 on March 3 and a return to that level is now the objective for old-crop futures. New-crop futures prices established new record contract highs on June 11 at $15.11. Movement toward $16 would be the short-term upside objective. It has been a wild ride as November futures have had a trading range of $4.50 per bushel from lows April 1 through June 11." He says weather will dictate the trend.
• Plan your soybean marketing. Hurt says add to new crop sales, but do it wisely:
  1) The basis is wide, compared to the shortage of new crop beans over the coming year.
  2) The demand for storage will be limited this fall because of the smaller corn crop.
  3) There will not be as much pressure to sell either beans or corn at harvest.
  4) The current new crop basis of 80¢ to $1 should tighten to 35¢ to 50¢ at harvest.
  5) Any pricing for new beans should be on hedge-to-arrive, without setting the basis.
  6) Since the basis will improve, forward contracts that set the basis should not be used.
• Corn roots may be suffering, if it was planted in damp soils that became compacted then crusted with beating rains. IL Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says cultivation could break up the crust and mulch the soil to retard evaporation, and give oxygen to the roots. He says corn with yellow leaves is not photosynthesizing well and is standing in water. He says its roots will not recover very fast due to slow soil drying.
• If your corn is yellow, it is likely due to wet soils and depleted nitrogen, and there is little that can be done until the soils dry out says Emerson Nafziger. The quick warm up helped the leaves at the expense of the roots, and their demand for moisture and nutrients outstripped the ability of the roots to supply the needs. He says the roots need oxygen, and need to escape from carbon dioxide. Nitrogen will only enhance vegetative growth, which will not help the roots. He says the roots need to grow without your help.
• The corn planting deadline depends on your north latitude. Nafziger says corn that is planted late, then gets wet, will probably not mature in time. A crop that dries out will suffer from drought stress. He says it is not impossible, but getting good yields from corn planted after 20%-25% of the seasonal Growing Degree Days have already accumulated is not a very sure thing. He says mid to northern growers need shorter season corn.
• Sorghum can still be planted, and yield acceptably since it is a shorter season crop. IL crop specialist Dennis Epplin says sorghum needs only 35-40 days from mid-pollination to harvest, versus the 55-60 for corn. Narrow rows provide a quick canopy, but planters will require special seed plates. Check pre-plant herbicide labels for potential problems.
• Prepare for the worst when it comes to Japanese beetles and corn rootworm beetles at pollination time. That is advice of IL Extension entomologist Mike Gray who says both insects have been delayed in their development, along with the corn, and that would put the timing for pollination and silk clipping at the hottest point of the summer in late July.
• Japanese beetles in your soybeans could be a more serious peril this year with the higher values of beans. Mike Gray says traditional defoliation levels suggested as economic thresholds are 30% before bloom and 20% between bloom and pod fill. But with the higher values of beans, he says a more conservative assessment is warranted when treatment decisions are made. He says the key to success this year is careful scouting.
• Soybean aphids have been found in northern IL, also getting a late start. Entomologist Kevin Steffey says, "Because there are fewer soybean fields at this time in 2008 (73% planted, 58% emerged as on June 16) than usually are available to soybean aphids during most years at this time, infestations could become relatively large in scattered fields. The temperatures this past week have been ideal for soybean aphid development."
• Flood #1. Farm wells are at risk when flooded, and need to be tested after the water recedes. Check with local health officials to obtain test kits and locate testing labs. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0617TomGlanville.htm .
• Flood #2. Crop insurance coverage varies by state (90% of IA covered) and agents need to be alerted about damage and to find out the rules for replanting and prevented planting. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/061701WilliamEdwards.htm
• Flood #3. Ponding and wet soils deplete oxygen to the corn plant, making it susceptible to various root rot pathogens. As waters recede, examine plant tissues for their health. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0613AlisonRobertson.htm
• Flood #4. Electrical systems in farm buildings may have been compromised, so power should be disconnected professionally, before you thoroughly dry out circuit boxes.

• Many reasons for a market downturn can be counted says IL Extension economist Darrel Good. Among them: CRP grazing allowed, declining crude oil prices, efforts by the US to strengthen the dollar, wheat prices becoming competitive with corn for livestock feed, and CFTC's announcement about speculative trading being investigated.
• None of those reasons could overcome the bullish strength of heavy Midwest rains and a sudden rise in crude oil prices, and Darrel Good says those altered the fundamentals for corn and soybeans. Particularly, the weather delays in finishing planting and the need for replanting reduces the potential size of both the 2008 corn and soybean crops he says. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060908.html .
• The market will be watching the potential crop size over the next few weeks, but the strength of demand will determine price and the need for rationing. While Good doubts any US market intervention like other nations, he says beware of two possibilities:
  1) Initiatives to use the CRP for more forage for livestock or expand 2009 crop acreage.
  2) Change the Renewable Fuels Standard to reduce corn demand by ethanol refineries.
• USDA's Supply-Demand Report this week cut the corn yield projection by 5 bu. per acre to 148.9, but did not change the planted acreage estimates, despite extensive flooding. The Planted Acreage Report at the end of the month will provide USDA's perspective on the impact heavy rains. Corn prices were estimated at $5.30 to $6.30.
• USDA retained its yield and acreage projections for soybeans, despite the planting delays, but the June 30 acreage report will refine the numbers. Mike Woolverton at Kansas State says old crop bean stocks are projected at a 15 day supply, but that will rise only to a 21 day supply for the new crop, still based on earlier production estimates. The tight supplies are the reason USDA raised the farmgate price range to $11.00 to $12.50.
• Wheat yield projections were raised to 43.2 bu. per acre based on improved prospects for winter wheat says Woolverton, but ending stocks are still relatively low because of the demand for feed wheat and export demand. Farm prices will be $6.75 to $8.25. Read his newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Continued adverse weather will offer 3 choices to farmers with crop insurance, says Purdue economist George Patrick, who says agents need to be consulted about them:
  1) Replant the original crop, even though the yield will likely be reduced.
  2) Plant an alternative crop after the final planting date and late planting period.
  3) Abandon the acreage and take a prevented planting payment.
• Shorter maturity hybrids are becoming more popular because they would require fewer growing degree days, but when you are cut 300 GDD off your hybrid the trade off is a decrease in the higher yield typical for later planted corn says IL Extension Specialist Emerson Nafziger. He advises short season hybrids untested in your area may suffer disease and drought stress. Read: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=957 .
• Nafziger is concerned about the biochemical needs of soybeans which trigger flowering. The length of darkness is key, but will be counter to what soybeans need when planted late. The biochemical process also has to occur at the V-3 stage in beans, which is the earliest that flowering can occur, and those two events may be mismatched this year.
• If soybeans flower early, the flowering period is much shorter and their height is shorter. A wet July or August can extend the growth and flowering period. Read more in Emerson Nafziger's newsletter at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=957 .
• Cut corn and bean yield projections in half if planting is not accomplished by late June, says Nafziger. "Even with high costs, the yield needed to cover costs is relatively low when corn is more than $6 a bushel. We're looking at some real disappointment at having so much income potential not realized this year due to weather-related crop problems."
• Seed beans are available for replanting say Iowa State agronomists. Plenty of group 2 is available, but lesser amounts of groups 1 & 3. Additional seed can be conditioned by seed companies to meet demand, but germination will still vary in the 80% to 90% range.
• Seed corn is also available, and companies are moving shorter maturity corn into areas where replanting will be necessary. Yields will only be 50% to 70% of normal, despite the maturity length of the hybrid. Crop insurance policies may expect replanting to be attempted to meet the "good farming practice" requirement, along with pesticides.
• Has your nitrogen washed away? Fertility specialist John Sawyer at Iowa State says the late spring moisture and warm soils increased the chance for loss. He uses the IL research of: 4-5% loss of nitrate-N by denitrification per day of saturated soil. He says more N is lost by tile flow, and would total about twice the typical annual loss. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0611JohnSawyer.htm .
• If you are replacing failed corn with soybeans, Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says, "That while the choice to replant damaged cornfields back to soybeans is the prerogative of the grower, the risk of damage to the soybean crop from previously applied corn herbicides is borne solely by the grower because most soil-applied corn herbicides have more than a few months' crop rotation restriction on their labels." And he says soybean seed may be either in short supply or you may not get your first choice of seed beans. Visit: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/FloodingReplant-0611.html
• Evaluate your possible damage from ponding by assessing debris, silt, and residue from other fields that enters the whorl of the corn plant suggests Ohio State's Peter Thomison. Even if water is not standing, saturated and soupy soils can injure the plant, along with:
  1) Stage of development, duration of ponding, plus soil and air temperature.
  2) If it does not kill the plant, ponding will retard root growth, and cause nitrogen loss.
  3) If ponding in corn lasts less than 48 hours, crop injury should be limited.
  4) Ponding will contribute to disease risks of pythium, corn smut, and crazy top.
• Keep your fingers crossed about reduced insect pressure on crops this spring:
  1) Armyworms in wheat are concerns in OH & IN, with some in southern IL.
  2) Only a few cases of significant bean leaf beetles in the earliest planted fields.
  3) Replanted corn will probably be more susceptible to black cutworm feeding.
  4) Corn borers are laying eggs in the tallest corn, but larvae won't survive in short corn.
  5) Japanese beetles are emerging but can't find pollinating corn or flowering beans.
  6) Soybean aphids have been found in uncommonly small colonies in MI, IN, OH, & IL.
• Ducks in cornfields probably indicate reduced populations of corn rootworm. The hatch is two weeks behind last year, with ponds and saturated soils contributing to their demise. IL entomologist Mike Gray doubts any high densities because of starvation from lack of corn roots, which may help you make insecticide decisions for fields needed replanting.
• However! Research over the past few years has indicated that standing water does not spell an end to corn rootworm. They can survive a pond lasting only a few days and grow up to inflict severe damage. A 1991 study at Urbana, IL, indicated enough corn rootworms survived a severely flooded