· Soybean demand remains strong and there are indications that price rationing has been occurring, says IL marketing specialist Darrel Good. In his weekly newsletter, Good says July futures seem to have peaked at $12.90, and have softened along with the basis, which leads him to believe sufficient rationing of old crop soybeans has occurred. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/061509.html

· Darrel Good says export business is above the pace to reach the 1.25 bil. bu. that USDA has projected for the year. Additionally, the domestic crush is slightly stronger than expected. USDA recently forecast a 110 mil. bu. carryout at the end of the marketing year in August, which is a 3.6% stocks-to-use ratio, however, Good believes that despite the high demand, stocks will probably not drop below the typical pipeline supply.

· The corn market has also weakened slightly, but basis levels have remained steady, and the market is apparently comfortable that the new crop will provide sufficient supplies for the 2010 marketing year. Darrel Good believes the recent decline in prices may be linked to financial and other outside markets. However, he says, "All of the ingredients for volatile corn and soybean prices appear to be in place," creating market uncertainty.

· Jim Hilker at Mich. State expects harvest prices around $4, given the USDA's current supply-demand projections and $65-70/barrel of oil. "At $4.25 and normal state and your farm yields we would not sign up for ACRE, but could prices be $3.50, the August report will let us know, so let's be ready." More: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .

· Hilker's recommendation for the ACRE farm program is to fill out the paperwork now, wait for the August 12 Crop Report to indicate the potential supply and fall prices, then file paperwork by the August 14 deadline. "You will have a good idea of the state yields, your yields, and the US price with high odds after the report. That is all the information you need to make the decision. But you need to have everything in place."

· Wheat prices have softened, and Hilker's rearview mirror says, "Using hindsight, it appears the time to have priced some 2009 wheat was early June. If we get near the previous highs during harvest, certainly consider pricing much of your wheat. It is very unclear to me that there will be any returns to storage, the futures certainly do not suggest any, and the basis is still very unreliable." He says other crops may pay returns to storage.

· Corn or beans? In addition to reduced corn yield, OH agronomist Peter Tomison says there are other considerations when debating whether to switch corn ground to beans:
1) Higher grain moisture that may require artificial drying.
2) Lower test weights that may result in significant dockage.
3) Greater stalk lodging and stalk rots that may slow harvest and reduce yield.
4) Increased injury from silk clipping by corn rootworm beetles and Japanese beetles.
5) Greater injury from foliar diseases, such as gray leaf spot.
6) Less effective nitrogen uptake if the weather turns dry after planting.

· Purdue corn king Bob Nielsen recommends just parking your corn planter. After thunderstorms crossed through the Eastern Cornbelt on Thursday too many fields will be too wet to plant and "the agronomic viability of planting corn through the rest of this month in central and northern Indiana is essentially non-existent." And his comments could reasonably apply to similar latitudes in neighboring states as well.

· Nielsen joins other agronomists in saying maturity will be delayed too much. "Even early-maturity hybrids planted this late incur substantial risk of stressful weather conditions during flowering and grain filling prior to physiological maturity. Pollination that occurs in early to mid-August can easily experience some of the hottest and driest periods of the growing season." Nielsen says plant stress will increase the potential for stalk rot as carbohydrates move from the stalk to the ears, with later risk of lodging.

· With nitrogen dissipating in the soil, IL crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger says the switch from corn to beans is more justified on the basis of economics, "The expenditure to apply N has diminished, and even though it's not pleasant to write off such an expense, it is likely that the value of yield loss from delayed corn planting will exceed the value of the N left in most fields, making the switch to another crop more logical."

· Desperation alternative #1. Sorghum can be planted in late June to July, but needs good late summer weather fill grain, and that process can stop if September is cool. It attracts different insects, and sometimes weed control can be a challenge.

· Desperation alternative #2. Buckwheat will produce seed even if planted in mid-July and will set seed until frost. Since it is a cool season crop, it will suffer in a hot dry summer. Contrary to some reports, buckwheat does not fix N and is not a soil builder.

· Desperation alternative #3. Sorghum-sudan grass may be an alternative if there is a market for forage. While it is a warm season forage and can be planted late, it does not produce high quality forage. And late planting can compromise its quality.

· Desperation alternative #4. If there is a forage market, corn can be planted as a forage crop and may even produce some grain, which would increase its feed value. It may have a similar yield to other forage crops without grain production. Late corn may escape corn rootworm, so the use of conventional, non-Bt seed may allow seed costs to drop.

· Desperation alternative #5. Extension crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says anecdotal reports indicate that prevented planting payments from crop insurance may exceed the expected profit from a cash crop that might be planted this late in the growing season. Read Nafziger's planting options: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1162 .

· The double-crop calendar will be used by many soybean growers says IL crop specialist Emerson Nafziger, "Full-season" soybeans will have little or no head start on double-crop soybeans in many areas this year. In fact, wheat dries out the soil as long as the wheat plants are still green, so fields following wheat harvest may in some cases be ready to plant sooner than those planned for a "full-season" (soybean) crop."

· What insects are attacking Cornbelt crops? Extension entomologists report:
1) Soybean aphids are near the MSU campus, northern IN, southern MN, & NW Ohio.
2) Sporadic infestations include: white grubs, wireworms, black cutworms, bean leaf beetles, potato leafhoppers in alfalfa, and armyworms in wheat fields.
3) Unusually high populations of corn borers are in NE and IA.
4) Corn rootworms are well into their hatch in central and northern IL.

· Regarding soybean aphids in Ohio, Extension entomologist Ron Hammond expected to find high populations in odd-numbered years, "But what is unusual this year is the large number of aphids being found so early in the season. The situation could be that many soybean fields were planted late this year due to persistent wet weather, so early planted fields are receiving the brunt of aphid colonization." He says scout early soybeans.

· Late beans may be lucky! Late-planted soybeans have a lower disease risk than early-planted soybeans in nearly all diseases with the exception of soybean rust. "Late planting in soybeans really doesn't affect the disease situation much. In fact, it probably actually helps it," says Don Hershman, UK Extension plant pathologist. "Usually the only disease where there could be an increased risk is with soybean rust." Read more at: http://www.plantmanagementnetwork.org/pub/php/news/2009/LateSoyPlanting/

· Asian soybean rust has been found in 21 counties in LA, AL, GA, & FL along with Mexico. IL plant pathologist Carl Bradley says when you consider the later planting of some Midwestern soybean fields, the risk of soybean rust may be slightly elevated. Rust has not been a yield problem the past several years because beans are mature by the time it has arrived in the Midwest. For updates, rely on the rust website: www.sbrusa.net .

· Your first herbicide application may not have performed well, say Purdue weed specialists who say the cool, wet conditions may have interfered with translocation of the herbicide throughout the weed. That means a field check may find that a second herbicide application could be necessary. The specialists also warn that warmer temperatures will enhance weed growth and some could overtake young soybeans.

· Should you use a PSNT test to analyze whether to apply nitrogen to corn, where you are concerned that spring weather conditions and Father Time may have diminished the N availability? The Pre-Sidedress Nitrate Test is a tool to help decide. However, WI soil scientist Carrie Laboski says when temperatures are cooler than normal by 1ºF or more, the PSNT test underpredicted the N credits that were due to manure and legumes by 59%. So, a cool PSNT test called for more N than was needed about 60% of the time.

· Puny, discolored corn may outgrow its appearance when the soil warms up and dries out and root development is enhanced, says MSU soil scientist Darryl Warncke. Those symptoms include purple corn that appears to have a phosphorous deficiency, yellow striped leaves that appear to be a sulfur deficiency, and yellowish mottling that appears to be a magnesium deficiency. He says slow root growth interfered with nutrient uptake.

· Are you applying 28% N in your UAN or only 20%? If you stored it over the winter, a cold spell of 0ºF may have caused the urea and ammonium nitrate to come out of solution and settle as crystals in the bottom of the tank. The N is not lost, but may need a pump to circulate the N back into a 28% solution, and the warmer the temperature, the better.

· In the rush to apply anhydrous ammonia, Purdue safety specialist Bill Field says too many chances and shortcuts are taken, but be sure to not forget your safety checklist:
1) Ensure you have enough water to flush ammonia burns for 15 minutes.
2) Check integrity of hitches, because when they break, hoses snap and flail.
3) Goggles will save your sight and rubber gloves will protect your hands.
4) Your cell phone battery should be charged, so you can call for help if burned.

· If your crops are burned, some of the blame may be attributed to sprayer tank residue. Kristine Schaefer at Iowa State says water may not always rinse out the residue and crops can be injured when the chemicals return to solution. Those include: Dicamba, 2,4-D, Status, NorthStar, Callisto, Impact, and Laudis. She says glyphosate and glufosinate are good tank cleaners and can rejuvenate older chemicals unexpectedly in the sprayer lines.

· If your corn looks goofy, was Lumax part of your herbicide strategy? Purdue weed specialists say the weather and the chemistry may have collided and they have noticed corn injury in the form of bleaching of leaves and the inability of the corn leaves to unfurl. Testing at Purdue indicated potential problems when soils were cool and wet. More is at: http://www.btny.purdue.edu/weedscience/2009/CornInjury09.pdf .

· Is it too early for corn earworms and corn borers? No, says IL crop specialist Mike Roegge who has found both of them, despite the calendar. He says high populations can cause economic damage to young corn plants, and scouting should be a priority. Use this treatment decision aid: http://ipm.illinois.edu/decision/corn_borer_first.html .

· Genetically-modified crops have benefited the environment, says IL entomologist Mike Gray, quoting www.pgeconomics.co.uk/pdf/2009globalimpactstudy.pdf .
1) Since 1996 global farm income improved $21.8 bil. from beans & $7.2 bil. from corn.
2) In 2007, 12 mil. farmers used GMO technology, 90% of them in developing countries.
3) Pesticide use has dropped 8.8% (359 mil. KG of active ingredient) since 1996.
4) Herbicide and insecticide use has dropped a total of 17.2% since 1996.
5) Because of less pesticide use, 2007 tractor fuel savings totaled about 100 mil. gal.

· Cow slaughter is up 1.7% for the year; but most of that is dairy cattle, and MO livestock economists say that is not enough, "This data indicates cow-calf producers have slowed or possibly even stopped the decline in the beef cow herd. With only about a 2% cut in the cow herd on Jan. 1, the odds are low that the herd has been reduced enough to get the beef supply in line with demand that will be profitable for producers with $4 corn."

· On the weather map, OSU meteorologist Jim Noel expects normal temperatures and precipitation for the summer. He says normal heat in July and September and a warmer than normal August. Rainfall is expected to be normal in July and September and drier in August. His early prediction is for an El Nino to turn fall and winter into warmer and drier than normal, which is a pattern change from the high moisture in 2008 and 2009.

· USDA cut the soybean carryout to 110 mil. bu. at the end of August, but IL ag economist Darrel Good says price rationing will ensure a pipeline supply. "Prices will stay high or continue to rise until there is convincing evidence that consumption has slowed sufficiently to maintain at least a pipeline supply of old crop soybeans." He says move old crop beans once the market is satisfied that sufficient rationing has occurred.

· We will have enough beans, but Good says China has taken 629 mil. bu. so far and that is 188 mil. more than last year. Total soybean exports are projected to be 1.250 bil. thanks to the droughty Argentine harvest and the slack demand by the domestic crush. But USDA says the crush is picking up and may surpass 2008 stats by 5 mil. bu. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060809.html .

· Darrel Good wonders if consumption is beginning to slow, saying there is evidence:
1) The pace of exports has dropped for two weeks and sales have been cancelled.
2) Higher prices for DDGS indicate livestock feeders are buying it instead of bean meal.
3) Exports of meal and oil are slightly above the pace projected by USDA.

· USDA's language in the June Supply-Demand report caught the eye of Kansas State's Mike Woolverton, because the acreage estimates were "highly tentative." He says USDA used the Planting Intentions report acreage, which will change. "That will certainly raise the level of interest in USDA's June 30^th Acreage report to an all time high. The USDA June domestic corn production projection may turn out to be a best case scenario."

· Woolverton says if planted corn acreage falls by a million acres or more in the June 30th report, carryover would fall below 1 bil. bu. And he adds, "If summer weather phenomena lowers national average yield even more, as some now predict, the corn supply/demand fundamentals will become very tight for this marketing year; and next, unless corn acreage expands dramatically next spring."

· Woolverton is concerned about the 110 mil. bu. soybean carryover this year and USDA's projected 210 mil. bu. carryover next year, which he says is a 23 day supply. He says higher acreage of 79 million, but lower yield by 39.6 bu., which was last year's national average, would result in a 100 mil. bu. cut in production and 22 day supply. Read more: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .

· Biofuel demand has also started to rebound with higher fuel prices, says IA Extension's Chad Hart. "Since the first of the year, corn and ethanol prices are up about 5%, soybean prices are up over 20% and gasoline prices are up over 70%. Gasoline prices have increased enough to overtake ethanol prices and the economics of blending again favor ethanol." He expects more breathing room for ethanol prices and increased margins.

· Your ACRE decision needs to be made by Aug. 14, says OSU economist Carl Zulauf. "Market events can happen between now and August to substantively impact the ACRE decision for corn and soybean producers and landlords. We could see a major increase in crop revenue, possibly due to higher prices resulting from a drought that would clearly reduce the incentive to participate in ACRE. On the other hand, we could see a big decrease in revenue between now and August that would clearly increase the incentive to participate in ACRE." He says prepare paperwork now, and file it just before Aug. 14.

· Expect more hoop jumping for farmers needing credit says IL ag economist Bruce Sherrick, "In the end, there will likely be increased public disclosure and improved informational systems supporting loans and other forms of capital transfer, and there will be likely be improved risk-pricing (more responsive loan rates to borrower risk), but there is not likely to be a fundamental rationing of credit in agriculture as there may be in some other worse-hit sectors." Sherrick says we are not revisiting the 1980's at this time.

· Agriculture entered "the crisis" in good shape, says Sherrick, "Compared to most other sectors, agriculture has exceptionally low leverage. USDA data indicate that the overall ag debt-to-asset ratio was only 9.1% as of 2008. Further, 2008 was a year of record agricultural income, following several other years of relatively high income levels. Further buffering the impacts, land values represent over 85% of the assets in the sector."

· Prices for diesel fuel are 52% less than year ago levels according to Kansas State's Kevin Dhuyvetter, based on NYMEX futures prices. And he says that will be about the price differential through the balance of the summer. Harvest season will see diesel prices 40% under late 2008 prices, but December prices will be 13% over 2008.

· How late can corn be planted? IL crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says, "Based on accumulated data, corn yield approaches 50% of its maximum yield when planting is delayed to June 15-20. But past data are so variable that such predictions are likely to be inaccurate for any given year. Most fields with stands above 20,000 to 25,000 should probably be kept now, given the severe penalty for planting so late." Read about seedling losses in his latest newsletter. http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1154 .

· Corn rootworms began hatching in the Central Cornbelt about June 1, and will soon be at the 50% point, based on degree-day accumulations. For the balance of June, IL bug specialist Mike Gray says damage to late planted corn may be more severe, due to the overall smaller root system exposed to corn rootworm feeding. Scout your fields.

· European corn borers may have a challenge surviving their first generation, due to delays in corn planting, says IL entomologist Mike Gray, and he says the prevalence of Bt fields will help drive survivors down even further. Gray says Bt refuges could be vulnerable to significant infestations, so scout them for decisions on spraying.

· Soybean aphids have appeared in Michigan, but the intensity of the population is not yet determined, nor the density of their primary predators, the seven spotted lady beetle and the multicolored Asian lady beetle. Canadian researchers have found that adult seven spotted lady beetles consumed between 166 and 277 soybean aphids per day. The multicolored Asian lady beetles ate between 73 and 244 aphids per day. Hungry devils!

· Wet soils prevented some cornfields from pre-emergent weed control, so the post-emergent herbicides will have to be the weapons of choice for many farmers. However, each has a restriction on the maximum stage and size of corn that it can be used. IL weed specialist Aaron Hager has that list: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1150 .

· Do you need more nitrogen? IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez says that depends on soil types, amount of rainfall, and when the rains came in relation to the time that N was applied. He suggests a test strip through the field with a higher rate of nitrogen, then compare. If the higher rate strip looks better, then more nitrogen in the field is needed.

· Nitrogen #1. In silt-loam or fine-textured fields with poor drainage, if you had excessive rain, ponding killed the corn, about 2 weeks after applying UAN or 4 or more weeks after applying anhydrous ammonia, you might consider applying 50 to 100 pounds of N per acre for the new corn crop. This situation occurs most often in low areas of a field.

· Nitrogen #2. In sandy or light-textured soils, if 7-8 inches of rain soaked in without run-off, 2 weeks after applying UAN or 4 weeks after applying anhydrous ammonia, it is likely that a substantial part of that nitrogen was leached out of the root zone. In this situation you might also consider applying between 50 and 100 pounds of N per acre.

· Nitrogen #3. In silt-loam or fine-textured soils with poor drainage where a large rain event caused water to be ponded for 1 to 3 days and UAN was applied at least 2 weeks before or anhydrous ammonia at least 4 weeks before the time of waterlogged conditions, you might consider applying 30 to 50 pounds of N per acre.

· Nitrogen #4. In fields where the chance of N loss is less than 30 pounds per acre, there is no need to worry about applying more. This would include fields where excess soil water was present for 1 to 3 days within a week after applying UAN or urea or where anhydrous ammonia was applied less than 3 weeks before soils were waterlogged. Where N loss potential is low in light-textured soils, where infiltrated rain was less than 4 in., and most of the applied nitrogen was not in nitrate form, then you may have enough.

• Nitrogen #5. If UAN or urea was sidedressed in sandy soils followed by heavy rain, the amount of additional N needed will depend on rain totals. 7 to 8 in. of rain would leach the N out of the root zone. 4 to 7 in. would leach some out, and you might consider applying 30-50 lbs of N per acre. More N may not be needed for rainfall under 4 in.

· Puny, sickly corn may not indicate a shortage of nutrients, says IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez, "It is not unusual for crops in fields or portions of fields to show nutrient deficiencies even though adequate fertility and proper nutrient management plans are followed for phosphorus and potassium." He says many other factors could be at work in his newsletter: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1153 .

· Sickly, puny corn may also be a victim of nitrogen application. Iowa State agronomist John Sawyer says ammonia injury frequently occurs with shallow placed ammonia, ammonia application near planting time, urea placed near the seed, and dry soils.

· Corn injury could result from some the additives that have been placed in tank mixed herbicides. Iowa State weed specialist Bob Hartzler says, "Symptoms associated with additives (surfactants, AMS, etc.) include chlorotic mottling or necrosis of leaves, and are likely to be short-lived with no negative impact on crop development."

· Quality concerns are being expressed about soft red winter wheat because wet weather fostered fusarium head blight, and that creates vomitoxin or DON. Wheat millers will be concerned and high dockage or refusals may greet unsuspecting wheat growers.

· If fusarium infection is prevalent in your wheat field, keep in mind those kernels will be lighter in weight. By turning up the air in the combine, the lighter kernels will be blown into the field, and that may reduce the DON level when the wheat is tested at the elevator. High DON wheat can also be cleaned prior to delivery to make it more marketable.

· The breeding herd will have to decline 5-10% to get supplies in line with demand to push prices up to the cost of production, say Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain at Missouri. They say demand is still down from the H1N1 virus blamed on swine and they add, "How long it will take to recover from this flu situation is not very predictable."

· Cold storage pork stats are unfriendly. IA Extension's Shane Ellis says, "A year ago robust exports and strong domestic demand utilized a mountain of pork in cold storage. While this year's volume of pork in cold storage has been less than a year ago, volumes have started to trend higher at the time that last year's volumes started to decline."

· Shane Ellis says, "Cattle on feed numbers although lower than a year ago are slowly closing the margin of difference. Carcass weights are up from a year ago as feeders hold cattle longer to heavier weights. The tighter supplies of fed cattle will continue through the end of the year. From the latest range condition report it is unlikely that a drought occurrence will incur a mass placement of early wean calves."

· But those pasture conditions will impact the market, according to Ellis. "First, there will be plenty of feed for stockers, lightening the supply of feeder cattle available for feedlot placement. Last year feedlot placements were lighter when corn prices were reaching record highs. Second, with added grazing resources available there will be less pressure to cull cow herds. Although the number of beef cows will be lower, the number of dairy cows entering the slaughter supply is increasing with the dairy retraction."

· The process of crop scouting is methodical, says MO Extension's Allen Wrather:
1) Determine the variety and the age of the plant.
2) Identify all the symptoms affecting the leaves, stems, roots and fruit.
3) Estimate the percentage of plants damaged in the affected part of the field.
4) Determine the distribution or pattern of the problem in the field.
5) Evaluate whether the crop and weeds in the field share similar symptoms.
6) Determine the history of the problem.

• Delayed planting in IL, IN & OH may push the national corn yield potential down to 152 bu. estimates Purdue marketing specialist Chris Hurt, who says acreages shifts from corn to beans won't help either. He says the low production means usage cuts by the ethanol and livestock industries which are already in negative margin territory.
• But Hurt says the kicker will be the impact on the ethanol industry because the Renewable Fuels Standard requires 12 bil. gal. in 2010 and that means 350 to 400 mil. bu. more corn will have to be produced this year. If that is a hardship, Hurt says the EPA administrator can reduce the requirement, which softens the corn market. Read more: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/corn.asp?ID=60
• The soybean market is being fueled by the short supply in Argentina and the long demand in China, according to Purdue's Chris Hurt. He says US exports could rise 60 to 80 mil. bu. above USDA's projection of 1.24 bil. bu., pushing carryout below 100 mil. bu. representing only a 12 day supply; and he says that may lead to $14 soybeans. More: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=61
• New crop soybean prices will be a function of 2009 acreage, more than anything else says Hurt. He says, "If July futures do move to $14, this might only increase November new crop futures by 40¢ to 60¢ per bu. and approach the $11 per bu. mark.
• Use a spread to market beans, says Hurt, "Consider pricing new crop futures by selling old crop futures months like the July, August, or September. This is an old crop/new crop spread which is full of risks. Those risks can be lowered sharply by selling the August or September futures rather than the July futures. Generally by late July or early August the old crop shortage situation will be resolved and August and September prices may decline more than the November futures." He adds, be sure of what you are doing.
• If you don't store soft red wheat, and only 1 in 4 bushels is stored, you may want to rethink that marketing strategy this year. New crop prices are $1.30 higher than in April because the crop size is 68% of last year. IL Extension's Darrel Good says the harvest delivery basis is 96¢ under July, compared to $1.76 at this time last year. He expects further price strengthening on a deteriorating winter wheat crop and corn crop concerns. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/060109.html .
• Wheat has been a problem for the futures market because of the lack of convergence of cash and futures. Good says corrective efforts have resulted in a 50¢ premium for Dec futures, and a 64¢ premium for Mar 2010 futures. And he says a stronger basis will be another benefit for wheat producers who store this year, instead of harvest sales.
• Replanting beans? Tough decisions should be based on good data says IL agronomist Vince Davis. Read his newsletter at: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1143
  1) You are losing roughly ½ bu. of soybean yield potential per day of delay in June.
  2) An evenly spaced seeding rate of 50,000 plants/A will produce 91% of expected yield.
  3) 150,000 seeds planted June 1, with 50,000 plants/A has a 90% yield potential.
  4) If the low stand is not uniform, one idea is to plant more seeds into an existing stand.
  5) The thinner the stand, the more delayed the canopy, and the higher the weed pressure.
  6) Buy more time for a thin stand with an extra application of post emergence herbicide.
• It may have been entrapment, but Michigan State entomologists have found soybean aphids on early planted soybeans on the campus, reporting 5% of the plants were infested. The aphid population included both winged and non-winged individuals, some of which had arrived via a rainfall, but unseen in the prior week.
• Weed competitiveness depends on your cropping system say NE researchers, who found narrow row beans reduce weed competition by 20-50% compared to wider rows, as well as when the weeds emerged relative to the growth stage of the crop. Competitiveness was defined as the amount of dry matter produced by the weeds.
• Weed control #1. Post emergent herbicide applications on corn is recommended when weeds are 2-4 in., since grain yield loss will occur as weed competition increases beyond that height. Additionally, smaller weeds are easier to control than larger weeds.
• Weed control #2. The prevalent use of glyphosate has diminished the use of tank mixes of broadleaf and grass herbicides, but IL Extension's Aaron Hager says glyphosate resistance may bring the practice back into popularity. For glyphosate resistant corn, he recommends tank mixing growth regulator herbicides with glyphosate for waterhemp.
• Weed control #3. Post emergent herbicides for corn that restrict application to corn maturity, should be applied against the most restrictive, whether that is height, leaves, or other factors. Hager says the same recommendation goes for tank mixed herbicides.
• If you have wheat, it probably has a disease of some type, according to an Illinois wheat survey. It found 77 to 100% of wheat had leaf blotch, usually minor problems with leaf rust, 50-92% had glume blotch, and head scab was as low as 17% and high as 100%.
• Don't take an antibiotic if you have a virus, and if your wheat has a virus, don't try to treat it with a fungicide. Just like the antibiotic, it won't work, says OH Extension's Pierce Paul. He's seen wheat spindle streak mosaic and barley yellow dwarf virus in wheat fields, but he says next year, select wheat varieties that carry resistance.
• It is too late this year to cure scabs and blotches in wheat, but next year choose a variety that is resistant to the diseases in your field this year. IL Pathologist Carl Bradley says planting wheat into excess surface corn stubble increases the chance for fusarium.
• Crazytop in corn may be a common sight in parts of the Cornbelt this year, because conditions were good for downy mildew fungus which causes it. Infection can set in when young plants are in saturated soils for 24-48 hours between planting and the five leaf stage. Water accumulation in the whorl also is a contributing factor.
• Wet soils in the eastern Cornbelt are contributing to early season corn and soybean diseases, stemming from soil borne pathogens that are attracted to plant roots, and cause a deterioration of the root system. OSU specialists recommend several routes to take:
  1) Manage the drainage in the field, which are indicated by the replant frequency.
  2) Use a seed treatment for both corn and beans that have several active ingredients.
  3) Use a seed treatment when the crop has to be replanted.
  4) Choose resistant varieties and hybrids, particularly for phytophthora in beans.
  5) Plant when the soil is sufficiently dry and conditions favor the seed not the disease.
• The active ingredient in Furadan 4F is being banned by the EPA after Aug. 13. The impact is Furadan 4F can be used this year, but not next year. Don't stockpile it, since you cannot sell a crop that has been treated with Furadan after Jan. 1. If using Furadan 4F to protect Bt refuges, alternatives include granular application units on planters or purchase seed that has been treated with neonicotinoids such as Poncho or Cruiser.
• Stalk borers should be on your scouting radar. If you find them on brome and ragweed they will soon migrate to corn. They will tunnel in unfurled leaves at ground level and wilt the upper leaves of corn, and YieldGard corn is not immune. When 8-9% of corn plants are infested at the 3-5 leaf stage with corn at $4, rescue treatment is warranted. Read more: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/060209hodgsonpope.htm
• Wireworms are not always being stopped by Poncho 250, according to Iowa State entomologists. They have caused a stand loss in fields with the treatment and anyone using the product should scout for damage, and consider higher rates next year.
• Bean leaf beetles are on the warning list of MO Extension, where numbers have exceeded economic thresholds on early planted beans without insecticides. Flea beetles were also spotted in corn fields where seed did not have insecticide treatments. Find management tips: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v19n12/a2.pdf
• Growing season weather should be good, says meteorologist Jim Noel at Ohio State. He's calling for the summer season to be close to normal rainfall and temperature, with limited heatwaves during the summer. He attributes that to sunspots, and the lack of La Nina and El Nino. But he's expecting an El Nino to be in the forecast for the fall and winter, which means drier than normal with good fall harvest conditions.
• Livestock producers will want to "bookmark" a reference point to obtain accurate information about a wide variety of animal diseases, including hoof and mouth disease, BSE or mad cow disease, anthrax, avian flu, Johne's, and west nile virus. Links to authoritative sources are at: http://www.livestocktrail.uiuc.edu/biosecurity/ .

As more consumers search for fresh local foods, more farmers are considering adding an entrepreneurial business such as eggs, honey, or produce to their farm business. Many new farmers, even those with just a few acres, often consider producing food to sell within their community. To meet these needs, The Land Connection and the University of Illinois Extension are collaborating to host the workshop, "Is Entrepreneurial Farming for You?" on June 16 at the University of Illinois Extension, Logan County Unit Office, 980 N. Postville Drive in Lincoln.

"The four-hour workshop is designed to help people who think they might want to get their feet wet in sustainable farming learn what it takes to start and manage a farm-based business, and decide whether this is the path they are ready to take," said Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant, Small Farm and Sustainable Agriculture Extension Specialist.

The workshop will cover resource assessment, goal-setting, financial planning, and marketing options. Participants will have the opportunity to meet experienced sustainable farmers, graduates of the longer 10-month Central Illinois Farm Beginnings course, and other prospective farmers. They will learn about different successful farm enterprises, and be able to ask questions about the genesis and development of farm businesses.

"Participants in the workshop will walk through the next steps required in pursuing their farming goals and leave with a clear idea about what's possible and what the risks are, so they'll be better prepared if they decide to take the plunge," said Terra Brockman, Director of Farmer Training at The Land Connection.

Registration for each workshop is $30 and includes a light supper. All workshops are from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Payment can be done by mail, by contacting The Land Connection at 847-570-0701, or online at http://www.thelandconnection.org/farmers/dreams.cfm. If reasonable accommodations are needed in order to participate in any of the programs, call 217-241-4644.

"Is Entrepreneurial Farming for You?" was developed and will be facilitated by Terra Brockman of The Land Connection and Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant, the Small Farms Specialist with the University of Illinois Extension.

• USDA's projection of 85 mil. corn acres is in doubt because of planting delays, says Mike Woolverton at Kansas State, and that increases the chances of carryover stocks going low enough to initiate price rationing. He says a one mil. acre decline would cut the surplus to 8%, well below the 10-12% of the past 10 years. Read his latest newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Woolverton says if there is a two mil. acre decline in corn acreage, that would cut the carryover to only 5%, if delayed planting also caused a 3 bu. drop in the national yield. He says the last time that happened was in 1995, when corn futures spiked upward.
• With delayed corn planting and delayed wheat planting, how many acres will shift to beans, wonders Woolverton at Kansas St.? He says the market is anticipating anywhere from 2 to 4 mil. more soybean acres than the USDA's projection of 76 mil. Beans are still the strength of the market, attributed to the short crop in South America, US exports to China, and the prospect for ending stocks to be at critically low levels this year.
• Soybean acreage is an uncertainty because of delays in planting corn, says Melvin Brees at Missouri, but delays in planting soybeans could result in lower yields and production. Currently the USDA projected soybean price range is $8.45 to $10.45, and Brees says, "If the uptrend from the early March price low continues, following the trend higher with "trailing stops" is another alternative. However, if prices falter, current new crop bids offer profitable prices within the projected price range and the potential to avoid lower prices."
• Pork producers know the score, and currently they are on the losing end with the game in late innings for some producers, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt. He expects some nearly ready to forfeit the rest of the game, unable to wait for the world to return to its 2008 healthy taste for pork, when 20% of US production was exported. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/052609.html
• Five weeks ago "swine flu" dominated the headlines until the pork industry convinced the media to label it H1N1 virus, but carcass values had lost $10 within a week and farmgate hog prices lost 17%. Hurt says the lower market prices were exacerbated by climbing costs of corn and soybean meal, with current losses around $25 per head.
• Purdue's Chris Hurt expects June to bring prices in the high $40 and low $50 range, not enough to cancel out high production costs that may cause $7 per head losses in the latter half of the year. The 2009 losses are expected to average about $12 per head. That should mean the breeding herd will continue to diminish for the rest of the year.
• The US wheat crop is having serious issues. Winter wheat acreage is down 7%. Spring wheat acres were supposed to be down 6%, but two mil. acres remain unplanted in MN and ND. Drought and freeze damage have hurt the Great Plains wheat crop. In OK where drought was a problem, early harvested fields have yields less than forecast.
• By the time you see wheat scab, it may be too late to do anything about it says IL Extension's Jim Morrison. But he's warning that current moisture and temperatures are perfect for its development. Morrison suggests wheat growers use an early warning system for managing wheat scab at www.wheatscab.psu.edu/ . In addition to seed variety resistance, management includes use of a fungicide in the triazole family.
• Got weeds? They are an equal opportunity commodity, but sometimes you just don't know what one is, and without a name, it is not easy to find an herbicide to control all of your unwanted visitors. Find the weed names with their pictures at these resources.
  1) Pest bulletin http://ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/pastpest/articles/200104h.html.
  2) Spring weeds http://weeds.cropsci.uiuc.edu/extension/Other/NCR614.pdf.
• Glyphosate guide #1. With at least 30 different formulations on the market, users need to compare alternatives by the number of pounds of acid equivalent per gallon of product. The concentration of the acid is what kills the weed, so compare before buying.
• Glyphosate guide #2. Some glyphosate products have surfactants, such as Roundup PowerMax and Touchdown Total. Others do not have a built in adjuvant system, and may perform less satisfactory under extreme conditions. When a surfactant is missing, add a high quality, non-ionic surfactant at 0.25 to 1.0% v/v.
• Glyphosate guide #3. Michigan St. weed specialists recommend the addition of ammonium sulfate to all glyphosate products, at the rate of 17 lbs per 100 gallons. AMS minimizes the impact of hard water on glyphosate and helps with velvetleaf control.
• Glyphosate guide #4. The optimum time for glyphosate applications is when weeds are 4 inches tall in narrow row beans and 6 inches tall in soybeans planted in 30 inch rows.
• You have made the decision to replant, but how do you eliminate the old corn crop?
  1) IL Extension's Aaron Hager is not facetious when he suggests tillage.
  2) Glyphosate is effective at controlling corn that is susceptible to glyphosate.
  3) Glyphosate resistant corn can be controlled with Poast, Poast-Plus, Fusion,
  Fusilade, Select, and Assure II, but there are delays before replanting corn.
• No one is certain, but if the weather is "normal" for the balance of the growing season, late planted corn could still perform well, and perform much better than in 1995 when late planting contributed to a 113 bu. average IL corn crop. That is the contention of IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger, who says corn is now more resistant to bugs and stress.
  1) Corn may have loss several hundred GDD, but sufficient temperatures should remain.
  2) The longest days and most light will arrive before full canopy, so grain will be less.
  3) Pollination is moved back, so rainfall will be more critical than normal.
  4) Damp soils mean compaction, so corn may have fewer roots and need more rainfall.
  5) Stalks will be more spindly and less able to hold larger ears.
  6) Grain development will be delayed to a time when leaves may be hurt by fungus.
• University of Wisconsin researchers are taking issue with the federal approval of an expanded label for Headline fungicide, and refuting some of the claims made by BASF. The WI staff says Headline was tested at its lab and, "To date, the results from our trials have not shown a consistent response for use of foliar fungicides, except when the level of disease has warranted the application of a fungicide." Their response to the Plant Health Label is at: http://ipcm.wisc.edu/Home/tabid/36/Default.aspx
• Headline fungicide is a multi crop fungicide, but promotional claims were questioned by 46 WI researchers who said they were concerned about the broad statements about the perceived benefits of the product. Those statements included:
  1) Increased tolerance to environmental stresses.
  2) Improved plant utilization of nitrogen
  3) Increased tolerance to bacterial and viral infections
  4) Improved straw strength of small grains
  5) Improved stalk strength in corn, better hail tolerance, and more uniform seed size.
• Congratulations are due, if your soybean seedlings are healthy, but you won't really know without scouting. Pythium and phytophthora will attack the seedlings under the soil and cause rot, which are seen most frequently in fields with a hard crusty soil. IA State plant pathologist X. B. Yang says identification of those and other fungi are important steps for your 2010 seed selection and choice of fungicidal seed treatments.
• Ohio has a "perfect storm" for black cutworms, and some corn fields have densities that exceed recommended thresholds for rescue treatments. Entomologists are advising corn growers to scout for potential problems, and take a break from planting to do that and save what little corn has emerged. The economic threshold is 3-5% cutting. A refresher is at: http://ipm.illinois.edu/fieldcrops/insects/black_cutworm/index.html
• Balance the cost of cutworm control with the value of the crop, say Iowa State entomologists. Compared to this year, 2008 corn was more valuable and the treatment thresholds were lower. They have developed a decision aid based on crop values: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0527hodgson.htm
• Poor growing conditions have been prevalent, and they have aided grubs, wireworms, seedcorn maggots, and cutworms in doing their dirty work. Purdue entomologists have found those larvae are not being controlled by low rates of Cruiser and Poncho applied to the seed, particular when populations are high. The upshot is when the seedling is not growing vigorously, such as this year, then the systemic insecticides work poorly.
• Relatively cool spring temperatures have minimized nitrogen losses in the mind of Purdue fertility specialist Jim Camberato. At least he does not believe there has been any more this year than normal. Based on fall application of anhydrous ammonia, he says the average loss would be about 30%, if a nitrification inhibitor was not applied also. Cut that number to 15% if the anhydrous ammonia was applied early this spring.
• You've probably lost some nitrogen, but it is difficult to say how much is lost. IL fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez say the conversion of ammonium to nitrate depends on temperature, and recently it would take 1-2 weeks for nitrogen to be lost to leaching or nitrate if it was applied after May 1. http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1137
• If you have switched to shorter season corn, how should your fertility program change? Fernandez says that means a reduced yield potential and less need for the N that you typically apply. "For each week that planting is delayed from the optimum for your area, it is recommended that you reduce N rate by 20 pounds per acre down to a minimum of 80 pounds per acre (for very late planting)." Plant first, apply N later.
• If your fertility program needs to be more cost-conscious, the reduced rate is a good start, says Fernandez. But he says get the N to where it can be used by the corn roots.
  1) Surface applications require rain or irrigation to move N into the root zone.
  2) Injected N needs to be between rows to reduce root injury. Roots grow toward it.
  3) Apply N to every other row, giving corn some N on at least one side.
  4) Aerial application should be under 125 lbs/A and not applied when corn is wet.
• Concerns about the carbon footprint of ethanol are addressed by Kurt Thelen of Michigan State, who says the effort to discredit ethanol because it will cause changes in other countries is misleading. He says the bottom line is the fact that burning gasoline emits 19.4 lbs of carbon dioxide per gal., but it takes 1.4 gal. of ethanol to do that.
• By growing corn to refine into ethanol, Thelen at Michigan State says all of the crop inputs for an acre would represent 1,250 lbs of carbon dioxide per acre, or 2.9 lbs per gallon of ethanol produced. He says that is a 78% reduction from the process of refining gasoline, and it will be 94% less than gasoline when perennial grasses are used.
• June Dairy Month will not be a high point of the year for many dairymen because of huge financial losses resulting from milk dropping from $18 to $12 per cwt in the past 6 months. IL dairy specialist Mike Hutjens says $16 to $18 is the current breakeven price for milk, and a 105 cow operation is losing $10,000 per month. He says much of the problem is due to the stronger dollar that has eliminated the dairy export business.
• So what is a dairyman to do? Hutjens says with a new forage year underway, look for any means of improving forage quality and quantity in dairy rations. Grain by-products such as corn gluten feed, wet brewers grain, and DDGS are good ways to replace soy meal and corn when trying to cut the cost of rations, which are 60% of expenses.
• Other opportunities in dairy profitability, according to IL Extension's Hutjens:
  1) Target feed costs under 9¢/lb dry matter & raise milk to feed efficiency to 1.6.
  2) Silage inoculants, monensin, buffers, yeast products & trace minerals are good.
  3) Ration reduction only will reduce milk yield and decrease health and immunity.
  4) USDA's MILC program will provide relief for farms with less than 150 cows.
  5) CME milk futures are at $15 for fall prices, but still below production costs.

• The market ought to be more worried about corn planting delays in the Eastern Cornbelt says IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good, who believes a potential 22 bu. per acre shortfall in IL, compared to 2008, could also be the case in Indiana and Ohio. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/051809.html .
• Good says the market may be ignoring planting delays because a similar situation in 2008 was erased with perfect summer weather. As a result he says the market:
  1) may be primarily focusing on other supply and demand fundamentals.
  2) may expect higher ethanol and export demand, along with Wall St. stability.
  3) may not appreciate the yield implications of extremely late planting dates.
• An IL weather and yield model developed by IL ag economists predicts:
  1) A 175 bu. state average yield with average weather and only 14% planted late.
  2) A 157 bu. state average yield with average weather and 75% planted late.
  3) A 172 bu. state average yield with cool, wet weather and 75% planted late.
  4) A 134 bu. state average yield with hot, dry weather and 75% planted late.
• Planting delays will help push prices higher in a strong demand corn market believes Melvin Brees at MO Extension. His May newsletter says lower yields will lead to price strength, "One possible upside price objective is to target prices in December futures near the $4.70 high that occurred in January. Continued planting delays might provide the chance to increase price targets if prices continue to move higher." Read his newsletter at: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf .
• June 1 begins the ACRE sign-up, and some farms will either be helped or hurt by ACRE. OSU economist Carl Zulauf says put some in and keep some out. http://aede.osu.edu/resources/docs/pdf/B76065CJ-MMN6-M5UA-NW3POF4Q6U6A3QZO.pdf
  1) For corn-soybean-wheat farms, the reduction in direct payment per planted acre usually will be smaller, the greater the share of base acres that are soybeans.
  2) Compared to the counter-cyclical program, ACRE better matches current production risk because its payment is based on planted acres (up to the farm's total base acres).
  3) The higher a farm's 5-year Olympic moving average yield, relative to the state's 5-year Olympic average yield for a crop, the higher the farm's ACRE revenue payment.
  4) The more yield has increased the higher will be a FSA farm's Olympic average yield. For example, recently tiled fields may have greater yield increases.
  5) The closer changes in yield on a FSA farm and state move together, the more similar is changes in farm and state revenue, implying better risk protection from ACRE.
• Flipping the switch. If you think that it is too late for corn and you are going to plant soybeans instead, work through a checklist from Vince Davis of IL Extension.
  1) Review the economic decisions. http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1118
  2) Variety selection will be a key, so look for university trial reports in your state.
  3) Choose a variety with SCN resistance different that what was planted last year.
  4) Warmer soils mean more fungal problems, so find varieties with disease resistance.
  5) You will not benefit from any nitrogen application, so check that off as lost.
  6) Check the label for issues with any corn pre-emergent herbicide that was applied.
  7) With the intense fieldwork in narrow windows, keep rested, alert, and safe.
• What little corn that has been planted in some states has been flooded out, and replant decisions are the top priority. IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger knows you are wondering about using a shorter season hybrid. He says, "Early-maturing corn planted late is likely to be hurt even more by weather-related problems than mid-maturity hybrids would be, and both will be damaged by early frost. This suggests that going to earlier hybrids, especially if they are not adapted, may provide little or no benefit when planting is late." Read more: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1132.
• There is a similar philosophy from the OSU agronomists, who say, "In Ohio and Indiana, we've observed decreases in required heat units from planting to kernel black layer which average about 6.8 growing degree days (GDDs) per day of delayed planting. Therefore a hybrid rated at 2800 GDDs with normal planting dates (i.e. late April or early May) may require slightly less than 2600 GDDs when planted in late May or early June, i.e. a 30 day delay in planting may result in a hybrid maturing in 204 fewer GDDs (30 days multiplied by 6.8 GDDs per day)." Read: http://corn.osu.edu/#E .
• Some replant scenarios may have a farmer tearing up a marginal field that would have outyielded a newly planted late maturing field. Nafziger believes, "It is important to make the replant decision based on estimated effects on net income, not on an emotional basis or a need to "make the field look better." At the same time, listening to one's gut isn't always a bad thing," especially if the numbers make it look like a wash.
• The main problem with planting soybeans on drowned out corn is the issue of what pre-emergent herbicide was used. Purdue agronomists report, "The only herbicides labeled for use in corn which would allow replanting soybean immediately are Prowl and Python. All other soil-applied corn herbicides have a several month rotational interval which must elapse before beans can be planted. Most of the post-emergence herbicides have shorter rotational intervals, but would still require a couple of weeks before planting."
• Early planting requires higher planting rates, only because of the cooler soils earlier in the season. Later planting has the benefit of warmer soil temperature and germination improves, which may allow seeding rates to be lowered by 3-5% to reach the desired harvest population, since a higher percentage of seed will germinate.
• Even though your planting date is delayed, that is no reason to change your plant population, say OH State agronomists. Regardless of the date, final stands of 30-36,000 population were required for optimal yields. However, they found that the lack of response to higher population was related to increased stalk lodging.
• If moving from planting to spraying, IA St. ag engineers have several ideas to cut spray drift. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0514hannaschaefer.htm They say a 100 micron drop will blow 96 ft. from a 3 ft. boom height, in a 20 mph wind.
  1) Increase droplet size to prevent small droplets from entering air currents.
  2) Use larger spray tips and operate them at lower pressures.
  3) Keep booms at the lowest height that still allows nozzle overlap.
  4) Drive slower near field borders if using spray controller that lowers pressure.
• The wet spring may have placed weeds lower on your priority list, but IA State weed specialist Bob Hartzler says act conservatively to minimize the risk of yield loss by letting weeds get out of control. He says if weeds are more concentrated than 10 per square foot, they need to be controlled before reaching 2 inches in height. They will not only take moisture away from an emerging crop, but will steal any applied nitrogen.
• Volunteer corn should also be on your priority list to control. Hartzler says one volunteer corn plant per 10 foot row of soybeans will cut yield by 1.3%. If your volunteer corn is glyphosate resistant, he says use paraquat or SelectMax, but if using the latter, there is a 6 day interval between spraying and planting to avoid residue issues.
• Weed control #1. In no-till fields which have yet to be planted, failure to control glyphosate resistant weeds before planting could lead to significant challenges in bean fields where few alternatives exist for post emergent weed control. IL Extension's Aaron Hager says glyphosate tank mix partners will be needed before and after planting.
• Weed control #2. While growth regulators can be effective, there must be a time lapse between application and planting. If you do not have that time, eliminate the growth regulator from the burndown or increase the rate of the non-selective herbicide.
• Weed control #3. Since larger weeds require a higher rate of herbicide application, delaying a burndown application until after planting may require high rates of application. For glyphosate burndowns, Hager recommends adding the full recommended rate of AMS, and be cautious of products without sufficient AMS.
• As weeds escape a particular set of POST herbicides and become increasingly hard to control, PRE herbicides, selected for those weeds, will minimize the selection pressure of the herbicide resistant or tolerant weeds in that field, say Purdue agronomists. "Even if some of the weeds are not totally killed by the PRE treatment, weed growth is reduced allowing the POST application to be made to smaller weeds, ensuring better coverage and increased control. While herbicide resistant crops have allowed for a wider window of application over the past decade, as weeds become more resistant to these herbicides, it is important to change to different modes of action or add an herbicide with a different mode of action to the herbicide program to keep weeds in check and yields high." Read more: http://extension.entm.purdue.edu/pestcrop/2009/issue7/index.html#soil .
• The loss of nitrogen will be minimal if you applied anhydrous ammonia, say OSU fertility specialists. They report it is "fairly resistant to microbial oxidation and eliminates the bacteria responsible for nitrification. Thus, that material can be in the field for a week or two prior to conversion to nitrate. Additionally, the speed of microbial oxidation is a function of soil temperature." They say GGD are less than normal.
• However, UAN dry or liquid may be more at risk of degradation, particularly if the field was waterlogged for more than a day. And liquid UAN, more so, than dry UAN. Again, temperatures are key to the speed of the nitrification, and coolness slows it down.
• "Refuge in a bag," also known as Pioneer's AcreMax, has not yet been totally adopted by a government advisory panel. The concept is to reduce the Bt refuge from 20% of acreage to only 5%, but the group said the blended seed did not prove to be either toxic or a repellant. The result is more study, and EPA is expected to soon weigh into the debate.
• Have corn rootworms drowned in the Eastern Cornbelt? Their mortality is high in saturated soils and standing water, but IL Extension entomologist Mike Gray asks if they have even hatched yet. Based on degree-days, Gray says we are at the midpoint of the hatch, and some are still in the egg stage and immune to the ponded fields.
• Consider the rootworm environment. Cool water and soil will preserve rootworm eggs. Warmer temperatures will decrease the survival rate. Larvae have survival problems, until they can find corn roots, then survival in standing water is improved. Planting delays will jeopardize their survival, since about half will die within 24 hours if they cannot find corn root tissue to enter. 95% will starve in 3 days without corn roots.
• Was wheat hurt by the recent cold nights? That is a possibility, but it depends on the variety, the growth stage, how cold it was, and the length of exposure to the cold. Spikes can be trapped, leaves discolored, flowers sterilized, and lower stems damaged. But, OSU agronomists say wheat is a winter crop and can tolerate cold temperatures.
• Cattle feeders are still seeing red ink says livestock economist Dillon Feuz, who says "Nebraska feedlots have averaged a $120 per head loss since January 2008." But he adds, "Cattle prices have strengthen this month to the point of a positive return for some producers. However, it would appear that feeder cattle that were purchased near the average market price and that have average feedlot performance will not break-even this summer. For those cattle to break-even, feeding costs would need to remain at present levels and the fed cattle market would need to regain that $2-3 per cwt that has been lost in the last two weeks." He thinks $85 would be breakeven for some fed cattle.
• Essentially, a catch-22 is what IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen describes with the current federal policy on ethanol. He says the Obama administration wants the average fuel economy to increase to 35.5 mpg by 2016, but the move to increase the ethanol blend from 10 to 15% would cause a further reduction in fuel economy. His rather critical observation is at: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/ethanolupdate.html .

• USDA nibbled away at the corn surplus, cutting it to 1.6 bil. bu. by transferring 50 bil. bu. each to export and ethanol estimates. IL Extension's Darrel Good says the 12.09 bil. bu. production estimate parallels 2008, while the expected yield rose 1.5 bu. and harvested acreage fell by 800 thousand. Good says the projected 155.4 bu. average yield is a function of the trend line, adjusted for a slight decline due to planting delays.
• Corn consumption will climb over 400 mil. bu. going into next year, which USDA estimates will be 12.56 bil. 350 mil. additional bu. will be used for ethanol and 150 mil. for exports, while 100 mil. fewer bu. will be fed, leaving only 1.145 bil. in ending stocks. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/051209.html .
• Darrel Good expects a modest shift from corn to beans in the Eastern Cornbelt due to planting delays, which can also reduce yield. That is one reason for USDA's 1.5 bu. cut in the expected 2009 corn yield. He says without favorable weather like 2008, the slow planting will contribute to additional advances in corn prices.
• Weather and planting progress will remain the major driver for crop prices over the short term, says IA Extension's Chad Hart. "Longer term, the markets will continue to watch the development of biofuel regulations. The recent releases by the California Air Resources Board and the federal Environmental Protection Agency, incorporating indirect land use change and greenhouse gas emissions, were seen as negatives to the biofuel industry. But these policies are being phased in over a few years and are subject to additional review, so biofuel policy uncertainty remains," according to Hart.
• The soybean carryout for the current marketing year already was low, and USDA cut it further to 130 mil. bu. by increasing the crush and exports. Darrel Good says harvested acreage will climb 400 thousand and if the trend line yield of 42.6 bu. is reached, production will be 3.195 bil. bu. 2010 consumption is estimated at 3.107 bil. bu.
• USDA may have overestimated grain supplies in the May report says KS Extension's Mike Woolverton: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp
  1) The 41.4 bu. wheat yield may be too high, given adverse weather and late planting.
  2) Unplanted wheat acres will shift to soybeans or other alternative crops.
  3) Global crop estimates were cut 4%, but major producers have production problems.
  4) Don't count on good weather to rescue US crops a second year from late planting.
  5) An inverse in the bean market indicates price rationing is already occurring.
  6) Global bean stocks can't increase with the poor South American yields.
• With oil prices pushing towards $60, gas prices have caught up with ethanol prices, says Jim Hilker at Michigan State. "If oil prices continue up, I would expect gas prices to over take ethanol prices. Up to this point the higher gas prices haven't affected the ethanol price a lot, just like the ethanol prices quit dropping, due to the mandates and blender credits, at prices not way below where they are now. If oil prices continue up, it will help corn prices, if they stay where they are at, it will put a better support under corn prices."
• Soybeans have been in an up trend since the end of February, and recently they have caught up with corn. Or in Hilker's words, "returns per acre are a tossup for the average farm." He suspects soybean prices will now move more consistently with corn, if corn plantings are on target, if not, relative corn prices may pull back ahead. Hilker says, "Strongly consider pricing remaining old crop soybeans on this rally."
• Dec corn futures have a price risk premium, says IA Extension's Steven Johnson, due to the fact much of the Cornbelt is not planted, and that provides a pricing opportunity. He says based on the past 18 years, there is a 79% chance the May corn price will be higher than the October price for Dec corn futures. His newsletter details that logic at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/polk/news/agmarketingstrategies.htm
• Consider new crop pricing, says Johnson if you have revenue crop insurance that guarantees a $4.04 corn price, the current price exceeds that level by 45¢. He says don't commit too many pre-harvest bushels, and use forward contracts or hedge-to-arrive. He says hedges or options can complement your cash contracts to manage your futures risk.
• Even with a US wheat crop that is 366 mil. bu. less than last year, USDA projects average prices to decline from the $6.85 this year to a range of $4.70 to $5.70 for the new crop. Darrel Good at Illinois says one of the reasons is the larger foreign wheat stocks.
• Failed wheat may earn a SURE disaster payment, but the temptation to plant an alternative crop may be a financial disaster. OK Extension's Rodney Jones says any replacement crop that jeopardizes a SURE payment, must not only make a profit itself, but cover the loss of the SURE payment, and that is not guaranteed. Read more: http://www.agmanager.info/crops/insurance/risk_mgt/rm_html09/OSU.asp
• Benchmark Farm Yield is the term FSA will be using to determine whether your farm will be eligible for an ACRE payment, should you decide to enroll. OH Extension's Mike Gastier says BFY may be the only effective way to prove yields in the Farm Bill. He adds, "It's in a producer's best interest to establish a strong Benchmark Farm Yield because the higher the Benchmark Farm Yield the more likely it is that the farm trigger is met and the higher the payment per acre will be should both triggers be met."
• How do you establish a Benchmark Farm Yield? Gastier says it is computed from your 2004-2008 yields, with the high and low years eliminated. Acceptable yield proof will include actual settlements or weight tickets through a commercial grain facility or crop insurance data including NAP or the APH database, but yield monitors will not be acceptable. If the data is not available, the default is 95% of the county average yield.
• Corn lesson #1. IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger says wet soils restrict the availability of oxygen to the corn seedlings that have germinated. He says the warmer the soil, the more oxygen that is needed because the growth rate is higher than with cooler soils.
• Corn lesson #2. Mid-May brings the threshold for yield loss of 1.5 bu. per day that corn is not planted. While some may want to "mud it in" the resulting soil compaction from working soil that is too wet can have a detrimental impact later in the summer if the weather turns hot and dry. Compacted soil will restrict moisture availability to the corn.
• Corn lesson #3. Nafziger says poor emergence could be the result of crusted soils:
  1) A healthy, but thickened coleoptile means a crust or clod physically interfered.
  2) A discolored and mushy seed indicates disease has set in and it will die.
  3) Insect larvae may have eaten parts of the seed or seedling, which stopped its growth.
  4) Reduced oxygen supply will allow roots to grow, but not the leaf shoot.
  5) A seedling that is growing slowly is subject to invasion by soil-borne diseases.
• Replanting is a decision some farmers will have to make, based on poor stands from the initial planting. IA State agronomists offer a guide to making that decision easier, comparing the potential yield from the first stand, versus the potential yield from any replanting, but they say actual losses could be greater or less. Find the chart at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0514elmoreabendroth.htm .
• Northern Cornbelt farmers who need to plant or replant, face critical decisions on dates, says MN Extension's Jeff Coulter. He says MN corn planted after mid-May faces a 9% yield loss at a minimum. And he says stick with original hybrid choices until the last week in May before switching to an earlier maturing hybrid. Review his charts and calculations at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2009/09MNCN08.html .
• Your corn is emerging in a weed field. Now what? IL Extension's Aaron Hager says:
  1) If you planted in wet soil and the seed furrow did not close, the corn seedlings can be exposed to a soil residual herbicide applied after planting, with severe injury resulting.
  2) If your corn is within a day or two of emerging, don't consider applying a pre-emergent herbicide that is not supposed to be applied to post emergent corn.
  3) Many, but not all, soil residual herbicide can be applied after corn emergence. However not all of them will control weeds that have emerged along with the corn.
  4) Consult his newsletter: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1120
• Corn pests #1. Corn planted into pasture or CRP may attract wireworms which can remain in the larval stage for 6 years before becoming an adult beetle. They prefer cool soils, so earlier corn will be at a higher risk. With no rescue treatment for wireworms, the only preventative measure is the use of seed treatments, but they are becoming so commonly used, NE researchers detect that insect resistance is a possibility.
• Corn pests #2. White grubs prefer to feed on grasses, which includes corn. Annual grubs will not be a problem, but heavy damage can occur from three-year grubs in the last two years of their larval stage. Damage to corn will not show up until after they are done feeding. There is no rescue treatment, but some fields will require replanting.
• Corn pests #3. Cutworms will be at work within 7 days after emergence of corn, and may not be affected by any seed treatments or Bt traits. Cutworms will be heaviest in fields that had a high weed infestation prior to corn planting. Use a rescue treatment if 5% or more of the corn has been cut and worms are one inch or under. If soil is dry or crusted, rotary hoeing immediately before or after Lorsban (chlorpyrifos) application may enhance control. Any insecticides that are Pyrethroids should not be incorporated.
• Think ahead about weed control in soybeans with an insecticide strategy. NE Extension's Stevan Knezevic reports that weeds are more successful in soybeans that have suffered some insect defoliation because the canopy is reduced. He says, "Soybeans with 30%-60% insect damage have a shorter weed control window and potentially fewer weed control options. Early season bean leaf beetle feeding and defoliation can reduce yield two ways: directly, through soybean plant damage, and indirectly, by moving the critical period of weed control forward -- from 20 days after emergence to 10 days."
• As you plant soybeans, think about soybean rust, since it has been found on kudzu in FL, GA, AL & LA. So far it has not been found on soybeans, but this is the earliest it has been found in some locations. The problem this year is the delayed planting of beans will keep them at risk of rust for a longer period of the growing season. Rust has been showing up throughout the Cornbelt, but usually too late to do any serious damage. Keep track of soybean rust at: http://sbr.ipmpipe.org/cgi-bin/sbr/public.cgi .
• Most farmers who investigated organic production were concerned about their income in the required transition period. USDA will provide up to $20,000 per farm to ease the conversion process. Program sign-up is underway at local NRCS offices through 5/29. Producers may also qualify under the EQIP program, which has larger funding limits.
• Another cropping alternative is switchgrass production for biofuel, grazing, or wildlife/conservation. But how do you grow it? Drill or broadcast the seed, but do not cut or graze it during the establishment year, so its roots can develop. Weed management is an issue, and WI Extension has a factsheet on switchgrass cultivation along with a weed control guide. http://www.uwex.edu/ces/forage/pubs/switchgrass.pdf .
• The price went down and the weight went up on hogs while the "swine" flu was underway. MO Extension's Glenn Grimes says producers held hogs back from the market and they gained 3.4 pounds in late April and 5.9 pounds in early May, compared to prior years. He says the ailment cut about a half billion dollars out of the hog market.
• Expect more regulations on farming and food processing as the result of increasing globalization of agriculture. That is the forecast of IL Extension economist Bob Spitze who says our food supply now can originate from any field or processor on the planet, and carelessness at a peanut processor affected the whole world almost immediately. The Emeritus professor says those interconnections focus attention on quality and safety.
• Farmers who were unpaid after delivering corn to VeraSun Energy, can file a proof of claim, says IA State ag law specialist Roger McEowen. He says the deadline is May 25, or 30 days after a contract has been rejected. Follow his instructions, download the forms, and get the address at: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/verasunforms.html .

• Soybean prices have climbed about $3.50 in the cash market reaching fall 2008 levels, while Chinese purchases of US soybeans outpace those of last year. China has bought more than 600 mil. bu. of US beans, which IL Extension's Darrel Good says surpasses 2008 purchases by 189 mil. bu. Currently, China has purchased 60% of US bean exports. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/050409.html .
• Soybean exports are outpacing the domestic use says Good. USDA had projected 1.21 bil. bu. in soybean exports this year, and the current total is near 1.05 bil. bu. Good says the pace of the crush remains slow, but with the brisk export business, soybean ending stocks could drop below the current estimate of 165 mil. bu. He says that is helping push old crop bean prices above $11 and new crop bean prices toward $10.
• On the other hand, the corn market is "anemic" in comparison to beans, says Good. Corn exports have been healthy, and only minimal amounts need to be sold for the balance of the year to reach USDA's 1.7 bil bu. projection. However, the slower use of corn for livestock feed and ethanol production may keep ending stocks near 1.7 bil. bu. Good says planting delays have not had a substantial impact on corn prices.
• If you are pricing grain, Good says use the spring revenue insurance guarantees as your base, which means new crop soybean prices have a $1 premium and new crop corn prices are offering a 25¢ premium over the crop insurance spring guarantees.
• Volatility in grain markets is expected by marketing specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State. He says weather conditions, biofuels policies, and the H1N1 flu outbreak will contribute to continued market volatility. Regarding biofuels, he says watch ethanol news:
  1) CA's new fuel standard is unfriendly to ethanol due to criticism of corn production.
  2) US EPA has proposed a new fuel standard with specific greenhouse gas limits.
  3) EPA has accepted input on the proposal to increase ethanol from 10% to 15% blend.
• When the lean hog contract caught the H1N1 flu, May contracts fell from over $70 on April 24 to $58 on May 1, and down to $55 when a human infected some Canadian hogs. IA Extension's Shane Ellis says the basis tightened from $6 to $1 in that time. He expects markets to recover, but the summer rally will be delayed for a few weeks.
• If you sign up for ACRE, FSA offices will require historical farm yield information. At this time, USDA has not released the rules on what documents are required, and what happens if you don't have them, says IL Extension economist Nick Paulson. Those rules may come soon, since the announced sign-up period for ACRE begins on June 1.
• Planting delays may shift your preference to soybeans says IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger. Using a $4 corn price and $11 soybean price, he says, "By May 10, gross income from corn is being lost at the rate of $4.93/A for each day of delay, while beans are losing only $1.80 (northern IL) and 16¢/A (southern IL) per day of delay. By May 30, corn is losing about $9.15 per day of planting delay while soybeans lose $4.78 and $3.92 in northern and southern IL, respectively. As expected, the loss in gross income as soybean planting is delayed stays well behind that of corn throughout May, and this difference widens in June." More: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1118 .
• Nafziger says, "While planting delays mean faster loss of yield and gross income from corn compared to soybean, the date at which planting soybeans will be more profitable than planting corn depends on expected net incomes for the two crops."
• If looking for shorter season seed corn, OH Extension agronomists urge you to move slowly on that concept. "Don't worry about switching hybrid maturities unless planting is delayed to late May. If planting is possible before May 20, plant full season hybrids first to allow them to exploit the growing season more fully. Research in Ohio and other Cornbelt states generally indicates that earlier maturity hybrids lose less yield potential with late plantings than the later maturing, full season hybrids."
• If higher soybean seed costs have caused you to consider reducing your seeding rate, keep in mid that soybean plants compensate well to low stands by adjusting pod and seed number per plant and expanding their growth to make a canopy that suppresses weeds, says IL Extension's Vince Davis. http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1115
• Seed beans with many biotech traits will cost between 15¢ and 45¢ per 1,000 seeds for most farmers, says Davis. "Economically optimum seeding rates fluctuated by 26,000 seeds per acre in that seed price range. From this research trial, optimum rates in the range of 25¢ to 45¢ per 1,000 seeds would have been between 100,000 and 129,000 seeds per acre. This is much lower than current recommendations for 30-inch rows in Illinois, and a little lower than I would be comfortable recommending."
• If planting soybeans late, consider your equipment, says OSU agronomist Jim Beuerline. He says the later planting is accomplished, the greater the response to narrow rows and increased seeding rates. And he adds, "If you are tempted to use the corn planter to punch in a lot of acres fast, keep in mind that thirty-inch row beans planted May 10 will produce less yield than drilled beans planted two weeks later. The goal is to attain rapid canopy closure and maximize sunlight collection."
• With corn coming up (in some states), the accumulation of heat units, and the collection of black cutworm moths being recorded, Purdue entomologists are predicting black cutworm larvae will begin cutting seedlings on May 10, if corn is present where they hatch. They say cutworms can be managed effectively with scouting and insecticides.
• Young corn looks tasty to black cutworm larvae, so scouting should include looking for pinholes in corn seedlings. IL Extension's Jim Morrison says, "Cut, missing, or wilted corn plants are typical symptoms of black cutworm larvae damage. Feeding mainly at night, larvae will move up the row as they feed. On average, one larva may cut 3-4 plants in its lifetime." He says treat when 3-5% of the plants are cut and larvae are present.
• Iowa may have escaped a bean leaf beetle problem this year because of winter weather conditions, says entomologist Erin Hodgson. The predicted mortality is due to "an exceptionally harsh winter" and models indicated 99% of the bean leaf beetles bit the dust across the northern third of Iowa and 75% across the southern third of Iowa.
• Both bad and good bugs may be in your wheat, and it is your assignment to know the predators from the bad bugs. A good balance could prevent the cost of an insecticide treatment, which would kill both the friends and the foes. Check the economic thresholds before spraying. More: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1110 .
• The bugs are not winning, but two noted Extension entomologists have departed from their university research positions to take similar positions in the corporate world. Marlin Edwards at Iowa State University shifted his focus earlier this year to Pioneer and now Kevin Steffey at the University of Illinois will be headed to Dow AgroSciences.
• Unplanted fields that are "wooly" with weeds will need pre-plant attention before seeding, and depending on your weed crop, different tactics may be necessary. IL Extension's Aaron Hager says tillage may not be sufficient to clear the field, if weeds ball up in a cultivator, or some weeds escape being cut off and re-grow. Consider:
  1) Glyphosate and other translocation herbicides need time to work before tillage.
  2) Don't till soon after spraying growth regulators or it will impact your seedlings.
  3) Contact herbicides may begin impacting weeds quicker than translocators.
  4) Burndown herbicides can be mixed with soil-residual herbicides, but any subsequent tillage may not provide the most desirable distribution of the chemical in the soil.
• If you do tank mix a burndown and residual herbicide, OH Extension's Mark Loux says, "Where weeds are large, the inclusion of residual herbicides (or application in 28%) can reduce the activity of glyphosate and the weed control. This can be compensated for somewhat by increasing the glyphosate rate." More: http://corn.osu.edu/#C .
• Planting corn without an herbicide application is possible according to Ohio State agronomists. Instead of delaying the required time after applying the herbicide, Mark Loux says forge ahead and plant. "Reconsider applying pre-emergence herbicides where it's unlikely to rain before the weeds emerge (you can check by digging down to see what the weeds are doing), and consider switching to an early post-emergence approach. The good news here is that most pre-emergence corn herbicides can be applied to emerged corn, and some of them have enough foliar activity to control small, emerged weeds without the need to include post-emergence herbicides." More: http://corn.osu.edu/#D
• Weeds of every specie are coming up in many Cornbelt fields where soils have been perfect for weeds, but unwelcoming for tillage, sprayers, and certainly planters. Purdue weed specialists suggest a two-fold approach to clearing fields that are quite weedy.
  1) Use glyphosate + 2,4-D or 2,4-D + paraquat + Sencor (beans) or atrazine (corn) if you desire more rapid desiccation of weed biomass. In the glyphosate-based program, use the 1.5 lb ae/A rate with 1 pt/A of 2,4-D. Most labels require you to wait 7 days before planting corn or soybean with this rate of 2,4-D.
  2) In the paraquat-based program, use the upper end of the rate range for more effective control of large weeds. But be prepared for re-growth if weather remains wet and cool.
• Control thistles in the first of their 2-year life cycle, which can be achieved with a herbicide application. Once the thistles sends up a spike in its second year, it will produce viable seeds, surviving your weed-killing spray. IL Extension's Robert Bellm says a combination of low ground mowing followed by an herbicide works best.
• If you applied nitrogen last fall, is it still there? IL Extension's Fabian Fernandez says it depends on the time of application, soil temperature, and whether the soil has been saturated, which would reduce bacterial activity. So there is no quick answer. But check his calculations to estimate your loss: http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1116
• If you need to apply more nitrogen, Fernandez says, "If the field is already planted, the best way to apply the additional N would be, 1) injected anhydrous ammonia or UAN solutions, 2) broadcast ammoniated products (ammonium nitrate or ammonium sulfate), 3) broadcast urea, 4) UAN solution dribbled between rows, and 5) broadcast UAN solution. If you have not planted your field yet, plant now and apply additional N later.
• But what about P & K? Crop requirements for P and K can often be met with starter applications placed in bands two inches to the side and two inches below the seed, say OH agronomists. "Application of P and K is only necessary with the starter if they are deficient in the soil, and the greatest probability of yield response from P and K starter is in a no-till situation." They say the longer planting is delayed the less benefit received from a P & K starter, because at later planting dates soil temperatures are higher (this is not necessarily true for no-till soils and that is why they are more likely to be responsive).
• Diesel prices will continue to be under 2008 prices through November 2009. KS State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter calculates that diesel prices will be about 54% less than they were last year for much of the summer, then the price difference narrows, because of falling prices late in 2008, not because of price increases he expects in 2009.
• Four stomachs and at least 22,000 genes. That is what makes a cow a cow, and now researchers have mapped the bovine genome. ""Having the genome sequence is now the window to understanding how (a cow works), how ruminants ended up with four stomachs instead of one, how the cow's immune system operates and how it is able to secrete large amounts of protein in its milk," says IL researcher Harris Lewin.
• It is not your 120' Deere planter, and it is not your great-grandfather's wooden single seed corn planter he pushed in the ground with his foot. But a new invention by Univ. of IL ag engineering students will allow farmers in Africa and other developing countries to plant corn with a device that jabs into the ground and deposits a seed where farming equipment is completely absent. The hand held corn planters have been tested and will be manufactured and distributed with funds from the Howard Buffet Foundation.

Early cutting has begun in some of the early planted corn and sweet corn in the county. Damage may be more widespread in a spring like 2009, where wet field conditions have allowed for weed growth to grow without tillage or spraying taking place. One tool available for predicting cutting date is at http://www.isws.illinois.edu/warm/pestdata/sqlchoose1.asp?plc= You can select black cutworm from the list of pests, click on a town, and enter an intense moth capture date to get an estimated date of first cutting. From data available, the first estimated date of black cutworm damage would be May 14. That's not to say lower numbers of moths came through prior to the intense capture time, which happened to be April 4 in Piatt County.

Early damage appears as pinhole feeding in leaves, and this occurs when larvae are not yet big enough to actually cut plants. The next stage is usually cutting leaf tips or upper portions of plants, but other types of cutworms will have similar damage and these other cutworms are mainly leaf feeders. Finally with black cutworms, cut plants will appear. Finding the cutworms is important so correct identification can be made. Descriptions can be found at this website http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/pastpest/articles/200204c.html .

Watch fields, especially those with good egg-laying sites provided by early weed growth. Treatments are justified when 3-5% plant cutting is occurring. Listed products include most of the pyrethroids, and Lorsban.

• Like pork, grain markets have caught swine flu, says IL Extension's Darrel Good, who blames sharp declines in corn, bean, and wheat markets on false perceptions. He says, "The extent of reported cases of swine flu will be important in determining the depth of demand worries." http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/042709.html .
• In his weekly newsletter, Good cites other fundamentals influencing crop prices:
  1) The domestic soybean crush is 10% less than last year, right at USDA forecasts.
  2) Robust Chinese soybean purchases may push exports beyond USDA forecasts.
  3) Corn exports have surpassed 1 bil. bu., and USDA projections may be reachable.
  4) California fuel policies are changing, which would restrict ethanol consumption.
  5) Despite slow planting and more forecasts for rain, there is little market concern.
• Your marketing plan should accommodate another year of price volatility says Darrel Good. He says pricing the new crop "can still be anchored to the spring price guarantees of crop revenue insurance." And spikes above that level may trigger small sales.
• The market is anticipating a switch from corn to soybeans, says Mike Woolverton at Kansas St. He says low ending stocks, poor South American yields, and Chinese demand has pushed old crop futures above $10, but the new crops remains a dollar less. He says recent higher prices for corn and wheat has encouraged those to be planted if possible.
• If switching crops is in your plans IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger says the decision is complicated because of recent price moves of both corn and beans. He suggests reading his April 10 newsletter at http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1079 , and basing any decision to switch from corn to beans on costs and expected yields for a given date. If considering staying with corn, but switching to an earlier hybrid, Nafziger discourages that because most hybrids have a Growing Degree Day cushion and can be planted later.
• If you tend to mope about planting delayed by the weather, crop specialist Emerson Nafziger says just hope 2009 turns out like 2008. He says IL ag economists say April rains, even slightly above average, have a positive impact on yield. He says it is not the case for dry Aprils to have good yields and wet Aprils to have poor yields from delays. But Nafziger says, "A wet April that turns into a wet May could well be another story."
• Nafziger offers some quick guidance to consider if your planting is delayed by weather:
  1) Planting should take priority over operations like N application.
  2) Apply N, only if planting is not delayed, and soils are not compacted while doing that.
  3) Planting into warm soils means that crops emerge faster and more uniformly.
  4) Growing Degree Days are only average, so early planted crops have emerged slowly.
• Watch Monday's crop condition report from USDA for any improvement on the 2009 wheat crop. KS Extension's Mike Woolverton says 73% of TX wheat is poor to very poor, and only 11% good to excellent. In OK, 64% of the wheat is poor to very poor, 9% was good and 0% excellent. Central KS wheat has been hurt by freezing temperatures.
• No-till fields are pretty, but the last thing you want is a flower garden. Effective control depends on identification of the weeds you are cultivating, and these pictures can help.
  1) Pest Management Bulletin http://ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/pastpest/articles/200104h.html
  2) Early Spring Weeds http://weeds.cropsci.uiuc.edu/extension/Other/NCR614.pdf
• Weeds #1. Wet soils in the Cornbelt have hampered planting, but benefited weed growth. While priorities are on planting, IL Extension's Aaron Hager says, "Existing weed vegetation should be controlled before planting by utilizing tillage, herbicides, or a combination of tactics so the corn can become established under weed-free conditions."
• Weeds #2. Some winter annual weed species are beginning to flower, but others are setting seed. While applying herbicides to species already making seed may not appreciably reduce seed production, species in the early stages of flowering should be controlled soon to prevent seed production and addition to the soil seed bank.
• Weeds #3. If using 2,4-D for a burndown application, several ester formulations allow pre-plant applications without a specified interval, but others require 7 days. Some also indicate that tillage should not be performed for at least 7 days after application. Beware.
• Weeds #4. Cool temperatures can slow the activity of many herbicides, both contact and translocation varieties. Contact herbicides may not be affected as much by coolness. When the forecast calls for several nights of cool air, symptoms of herbicide activity on weeds may develop sooner with a contact herbicide than with a translocated herbicide.
• Rewind back to 2008 to address black cutworm issues. 2009 is a carbon copy with late planting, a heavy infestation, and timing that is perfect for the cutworms. IL Extension's Kevin Steffey says seed treatments such as Cruiser and Poncho and transgenic traits to control caterpillars will prevent black cutworm injury, but not if infestations are heavy. For late planting advice on insects, http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=926 .
• Black cutworm moths arrive at your farm by chance. Purdue entomologists say the moths use their minute energy to fly straight up. "Once in the jetstream, they are often caught up in wind currents in southern regions of the United States and carried to the Midwest. They are then deposited back to ground level by spring storms. Predicting the location and intensity of a spring thunderstorm is difficult," (and infestations, as well.)
• The Purdue bug gurus say, "In predicting insect infestations, timing is everything. There are other variables to consider, but timing of when and how all these factors (migration, food availability, development temps) "collide" ultimately determines the infestation." They say Mother Nature usually wins out over preventative treatments.
• When should cutworm treatment be applied? Iowa State's Jon Tollefson says, "The economic threshold for black cutworms is: 1) When larvae average less than ¾ inch in length, an insecticide should be considered if 2-3% of the plants are wilted or cut; 2) If cutworms are longer, treatment should be applied if 5% of the plants are cut, and 3) If the field has a poor plant population, (20,000 or less) these thresholds should be lowered."
• Do you apply insecticide for cutworms, while applying herbicide? IA Extension's Jon Tollefson says no, "If you are planting 1,000 acres of corn and, based on past experience, it is probable that you will have 10% infested with cutworms. If you purchase insecticide at $4 per acre and treat all of the fields, the cost would be $4000. If you scouted the fields and treated the 10% infested, assuming there is a treatment cost for the insecticide and its application of $12 per acre, the cost to you would be only $1200."
• Should seed beans be inoculated? IA Agronomist Palle Pederson says not unless:
  1) The field has not been seeded with beans in the last 3-5 years, the soil pH is below 6.0, there is low organic matter in the soil, or the field has been flooded for more than a week.
  2) The field was flooded for an extended period in 2008 and soybeans were injured or died. A field with such anaerobic conditions last year may have reduced soil bacteria.
• Avoid continuous soybeans, but IA Extension's Palle Pederson says it is OK to plant them in 2 successive years, if just returning to a normal crop rotation. But ask yourself:
  1) What would a soil test say about the K level, since beans remove more than corn?
  2) Were there any soybean diseases in 2008 that would require resistant seed in 2009?
• Corkscrew corn seedlings indicate an emergence problem. While it usually ends in death of the seedling, Purdue's Bob Nielsen says it is a rare occurrence, but can be attributed to dense soil, and even from compaction during planting. Read more: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/Corkscrews.html
• Crusted soils after a heavy rain can be an impediment to corn and bean seedlings trying to emerge. Iowa State soil specialists recommend judicious use of a rotary hoe:
  1) Soil surface moisture should allow the soil to crumple in your hand with moisture left.
  2) Hoe at speeds 8 to 10 miles per hour unless safety is a concern.
  3) Ensure both cotyledons of the soybean seedling are not being broken off by the hoe.
  4) A 1-2% stand loss in corn is acceptable, since a crusted soil would have been worse.
  5) If the loss rises to 3-5%, then slow the tractor speed to become less aggressive.
• Although the public wants protection from hogs they believe created swine flu, pork producers should take precautions to protect their stock from flu spread by the public. MO Extension veterinarian Beth Young provided suggestions for on-farm protection:
  1) Use NPPC standards to reduce transmission of virus between pigs and people.
  2) Ensure ventilation systems in hog barns are in good working order or upgrade them.
  3) Seal facilities to prevent any type of birds from entering which can introduce a virus.
  4) Store feed in closed containers to prevent contamination from any bird feces.
  5) Vaccinate pigs for swine influenza to reduce animal and human exposure.
  6) Vaccinate swine farm workers and their families to protect them and your herd.
  7) Provide workers with clothing and boots worn only while working around animals.

With the wet, cool spring we've had in 2009, many are concerned about the effects of late planting. While there are averages we can look at, 2008 showed us what variability was all about. Mid-June planted corn and soybeans last year provided above trend-line yields in many cases, of course all bets were off if water continuously forced replants into July (and then some).

The tried and true data from the Illinois Agronomy Handbook shows corn planting optimum dates are from April 20 to May 4 (wishful thinking at this point). These dates give 99 to 100 percent of yield. Looking at later planting dates, May 9 gives 97% and May 14 gives 95%. We do start seeing a more aggressive drop-off after May 15 with a May 19 yield potential of 91% and May 29 of 81%. Of course, the next question is "of what?" Yield potentials have increased dramatically of the last several years. 90% yield with a potential of 150 bushel corn isn't going to excite too many people, but that same 90% potential of 250 to 300 bushel corn won't be too shabby.

Later planting does have some advantages. Remember this year the soil temperatures returned to the lower 40's in mid-April. Later planting should give us a more uniform stand with less seedling problems. Insecticide used will also be applied closer to rootworm hatch, unlike some years when very early planting put the insecticide out there two months in advance.

A recent article in the bulletin discussed more recent research on planting date and yield. Central Illinois really didn't see much difference between April 9 and May 9 in yield over the trial period. There was more of a penalty for late planting in Northern and Southern Illinois than Central. You can read the entire article at http://ipm.illinois.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1079 .

Looking back on things, there just weren't many opportunities for early work. As for planting, it would have been really hard to justify putting $250 to $325 a bag seed corn out there in 42 degree soils. There is still plenty of time to put in a timely corn crop, and it certainly doesn't take as many days to put the crop in as it used to.

• If you have not noticed, USDA's adjustments in its soybean use projections will have an impact on the ACRE program. Michigan St. marketing specialist Jim Hilker says the cut in carryout stocks to 65 mil. bu. and USDA's raising of the average seasonal price to a $9.35 to $9.95 range were important, "This has ACRE implications, the higher the 2008-09 average weighted price, the higher the odds of ACRE paying off, other things equal." Read his latest newsletter at: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• Hilker's analysis of the soybean market includes the declining production in Argentina and Paraguay, leading to a world crop that is 165 mil. bu. smaller and fewer ending stocks. He says, "The disagreement between farmers and the government over several issue, such as an export tax and drought aid, has slowed the pace of exports." And Hilker says since Argentina has threefold the stocks held by the US, our exports could change, and he adds, "Keep an eye on old crop soybean prices as we go through harvest, i.e., consider being ready to sell on a further rally if you are still holding 2008 soybeans."
• "In spite of poor world economic conditions, the USDA projects increased world use of wheat, corn and other feed grains over previous years," says marketing specialist Melvin Brees at MO Extension. "The surprisingly strong demand along with reduced corn and wheat acreage intentions for 2009, dry conditions in the southern plains, the extent of freeze damage to wheat, planting delays for spring wheat, and wet Corn Belt conditions with possible planting delays make a case for higher price potential."
• "Managing risk is essential," says Brees, because high price is hard to define, and farmers should plan to capture profits, rather than hold out for higher prices. More: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf
  1) If the bean uptrend is broken, sell, or just below chart support at $9 Nov futures.
  2) If the bean trend holds, watch for new crop prices near the Jan. highs of $10.50.
  3) If Dec corn prices fall below support at $4, add to sales to protect a small margin.
  4) If Dec corn moves above $4.40, delay any sales and raise the sale stop levels.
• What marketing tools do you use? Brees says that is a hard question to answer:
  1) With a normal growing season, new crop cash contracts offer profit margins.
  2) Cash forward contracts will protect profits on crops sold at his suggested levels.
  3) Futures hedges would accomplish the same, if you can afford the margins.
  4) At-the-money options are expensive and would wipe out profit margins.
  5) Lower out-of-the-money options are cheaper, but would not protect price levels.
  6) Option spread strategies, such as fences and bear spreads, could be effective.
  7) Any futures or option strategy should only be used if you are aware of the risk.
• Ethanol plant closures continue, along with reductions in production. Iowa State's Roger McEowen reports 37 of the 193 US ethanol are out of business, 23 of them built since 2005. He says that represents 19% of the plants and 18% of production capacity, totaling 2.2 bil. gal. Read more at: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/ethanolupdate.html
• It may surprise you, but the stock market and the finished cattle market are nearly in lock-step with a 90% correlation, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt. That is because both are driven by the general economy and macro economic conditions that reflect weak demand. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/042009.html
• Chris Hurt says retail beef prices have not dropped along with producer prices, and that indicates producers are paying more, beef processing margins have increased, and retailer margins are even 13% more than they were early last year. He's expecting finished cattle prices in the mid-$80 for the second quarter and a couple dollars higher this summer.
• Cattle prices will increase over time, as the herd continues to shrink, exports improve, and the world economy grows. Purdue's Chris Hurt says while beef has suffered, it has the potential to have one of the most dramatic positive responses when normalcy returns.
• But the feeder cattle sector is expanding according to the latest USDA Cattle On Feed report. March fed cattle marketings were down 0.8% and placements were up 3.8%. But the April inventory was not down as much as it was in March, so Shane Ellis at Iowa State says the cattle feeding sector is rebuilding inventory. He says with moderating feed prices there are signs the fed cattle market may surpass $90/cwt, with higher futures.
• "As seed prices increase, return to seed decreases. The best net returns occur with plant populations between 30,000 and 35,000 ppa," say Iowa State agronomists. They note that not every seed germinates and 4-7% will fail to survive, so increasing seeding rates by 5% will ensure that proper plant population is achieved, but will sometimes vary. They say maximum grain yields occur between 34,500 and 37,000 per acre. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0423elmoreabendroth.htm .
• Emerging corn greeted with cold rain, melting snow, freezing rain, and any form of cold precipitation could show "imbibitional chilling injury," say OSU agronomists. They said that was the case in 2005, but 2009 has been mild in comparison, and your corn is OK.
• To assess potential freeze damage, check corn plants 5 days after freezing temperatures, if warmer temperatures have occurred. Look for new leaf tissue in the whorl, or look for the growing point just below the soil surface. If it is white, the prognosis is good.
• If corn is germinating in cold, wet soil that is a prescription for seedling blights. Under normal conditions plants may continue to grow, but when other injuries occur, new roots cannot develop, and pythium or other fungi can kill corn seedlings that are stressed. Seed treatment and fungicide efficacy can be shortened, if saturated soil conditions persist.
• In the sweep net, Extension bug folks are finding quite a few critters to watch:
  1) There have been enough degree-days for alfalfa weevil in Cen. IL & IN, & So. IA.
  2) Black cutworms will soon be feeding on weeds, awaiting corn seedlings.
  3) Several varieties of aphids are in wheat, many of which transmit BYD disease.
  4) Legions of armyworm moths are being found in KY & MO laying eggs, especially in thick stands of wheat, so prepare rescue treatments for thick stands before thin stands.
• On the issue of alfalfa weevil, entomologists in the 3-I states are discussing them in their weekly newsletters. IN Extension specialists suggest scout fields in an M-shaped pattern, examining 10 stems in each of five areas of the field. Check the stems for problems:
  1) Evidence of tip feeding by alfalfa weevil larvae; such as pinholes.
  2) Maturity of the stem, i.e. pre-bud, bud and/or flowers;
  3) Stem length and the average size of the weevil larvae.
  4) Early season weevil problems can be treated with an insecticide with residual action.
  5) Late season weevil problems should be addressed with short residual insecticides.
• Ohio soybean growers are being warned about a potential aphid onslaught, based on 2008 collections of aphids in traps. OSU entomologists put an asterisk on the warning and said they did not find any colonies or eggs on the few buckthorn plants sampled.
• Pay attention to what you are applying in the sprayer. Long days mean errors, and IL Extension's Aaron Hager says some chemicals with similar names have very dissimilar formulations. He used the example of Balance Pro, which must be applied before corn emergence, and Balance Flexx, is applied after emergence. Consult his list of potential confusion chemicals at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1095 .
• Safety is first and last, says IA Extension's Mark Hanna, even though wet, cold weather has delayed field work. He says if you feel rushed, you need to still beware of dangers:
  1) Mechanically lock or block your planter or tillage equipment before getting under it.
  2) Leather gloves prevent cuts and rubber gloves prevent chemical flesh burns.
  3) Avoid planting fast to allow seed metering, depth control, and furrow closers to work.
  4) While applying ammonia, use rubber gloves, unvented goggles, and water bottle.
• Increases in soil compaction are being reported as farm and construction machinery get heavier. WI Extension's Dick Wolkowski says that pressure impacts bulk density, porosity, aggregation, and drainage, but affects different soils in different ways. He says compaction creates a denser, less porous soil, slowing down gas exchange and keeping oxygen away from root systems. He says saturation only worsens the problem.
• How do you address compacted soil? Wisconsin's Wolkowski ways one suggestion is deep tillage, using a subsoiler with an L-shaped leg to lift the soil. He says the soil will loosened, but will not be restored to the point of having root and earthworm holes. The best advice is to avoid compaction in the first place, and stay off the soil or on one track. He says MN researchers have found compaction remaining from 1880's covered wagons.
• Deep patches of cornstalks may indicate the need for some soil conservation repair in the eyes of IL Extension's John Church. He says waterways have deep gullies next to them, preventing water from entering the grassed area, and that is only going to worsen. He says check "small breaks in the sod, dead sod, small water channels, tillage damage to edges, flow restrictions, and other problems that could cause a waterway failure."
• With the soil full of moisture, warm temperatures will boost pasture growth, possibly ahead of livestock being able to keep it clipped and prevent seed head formation. MO forage specialist Rob Kallenbach says once a plant sets seeds, it stops growing leaves, and the secret to pasture management is to keep the forage in the vegetative stage. He says divide pastures into paddocks, and use some for hay harvest if you get behind.
• Sudden Death Syndrome was prevalent in 2007 and rotated fields will be back in soybean production again this year. IA Extension's X. B. Yang says soybean seedlings acquire SDS infection at the point of germination, and if the soil is cold and wet, they will be there longer and more likely to contact the SDS pathogens. Yang recommends later planting and says soybeans planted after May 15 rarely exhibit SDS symptoms.
• Although it has caused insignificant damage, the "book" on soybean rust has yet to be written says KY Extension's Don Hershman, and it "could be a big mistake" for farmers to believe that it will never be a serious problem. He says 20 years from now it might have been seen as "a flash in the pan," but could also be seen as something that was a significant production factor a time or two during that 20-year period.
• Soybean rust has successfully overwintered in Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana for the first time since its arrival on US soil, says Don Hershman at the University of Kentucky. He says it can be found on low levels on kudzu, within warm, moist conditions it likes. He says the determining factor will be the weather conditions over the next two months. To keep apprised of soybean rust, watch the official website: www.sbrusa.net .
• With 10 years in the rear view mirror, Extension Update begins a new volume with this weekly edition. 520 consecutive issues have been produced and sent to farmers for the past 10 years, without skipping a Friday. This publication began with the intent of providing positive news about agriculture, help with marketing, and tips on managing all of the risks faced in production agriculture today. Initial issues were printed on gold colored paper and mailed to elevator offices, coffee shops and other locations in Macon County, IL. At that time it was entitled, Extension Update on Macon Co. agriculture.
• Extension offices in neighboring counties wanted to use it for their newsletter, so the name was changed to Extension Update on Central Illinois Agriculture, and the mailing list expanded. Some folks wanted it e-mailed, and that was not only less expensive, but the distribution increased exponentially, as it was forwarded, forwarded, and forwarded.
• With recipients scattered across the Cornbelt, the name was changed once again and paper copies were no longer mailed. Its content was posted each Friday on the farm gate blog, along with a myriad of other farm websites. Some newspapers began publishing it as a weekly agriculture column, and subscription requests arrived from South America.
• Although there are only about 250 e-mail subscribers, it is impossible to know how many others see it. It is known that one recipient sends it to about 750 others, and one of those forwards it to another 800+. Although Extension does not publish this newsletter, the information primarily originates from trusted Extension sources. If it has either saved you money or made you money, it is worth the late night effort! Thanks for reading it.

The West Central Region has designated April 19-25 as Extension Week. Logan County has had Extension since February of 1918. It began with a Farm Advisor named Elmer Ebersol who began selling the county memberships in the combined Extension and Farm Bureau system that remained in place until the 1950's.

Early projects included establishment of the county Pure Bred Live Stock Breeders' Association, Pure Bred Beef Cattle Breeders' Association, Pure Bred Dairy Cattle Breeders' Association, and the Pure Bred Swine Breeders' Association. Soybeans were a new crop at that time, and their planting was being encouraged. Of course, soybeans were used mainly for hay in their early years. Spring wheat was the predominant wheat crop of the time, and there were several thousand acres of oats. Farm labor was a major concern of the time, and labor placements were a major focus of Extension. The first soil survey of the county was also begun.

The 4-H Program began about 1920 with the first 4-H Clubs focusing on specific projects of swine and corn. Later in 1923 there began a push for home economics based clubs, and the push was on to identify volunteer leaders. Home Economics was added a few years later with the first "Home Advisor." Focuses were on running a household and home food preservation.

Logan County added an aggressive Community Resource Development program in the late 1970's. This program was responsible for many of the community wide surveys done in the early 80's, and these surveys even led to removal of the city of Lincoln parking meters around the square and municipal parking lots.

Extension continues to evolve as needs of residents change. Horticulture programming became more prevalent in the 1980s, non-traditional youth programs such as school enrichment and special interest clubs began in the 1980's, and the Family Nutrition Program started in the 1990's. Web pages began to be a communication medium in 2003, and today there is an average of about 15,000 hits per month on county web pages.

Extension Week helps us remember where we have been, and to focus on being of value to local citizens. Extension has always been blessed with many exceptional volunteers, and today is no exception. There are over 100 volunteer leaders in the 4-H program, and many others serving on committees and councils for various programs. If you are interested in volunteering, please feel free to contact the office at any time.

· Will rationing be required? That is the question rhetorically asked by IL Extension's Darrel Good in his latest newsletter. "Prospects for small year-ending stocks of soybeans and declining inventories of corn during the 2009-10 marketing year means that a generally favorable 2009 growing season will be needed to avoid rationing of use next year." Read it at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/041309.html

· Darrel Good says, "For both corn and soybeans, the timing and extent of US and world economic recovery will be important in determining the strength of demand and the level of consumption." And he adds, "With so much riding on the size of the 2009 crops, prices could well trade in a wide range over the next few months."

• If you feel financially nervous, IL Extension's Nick Paulson knows why. He says farmers have twice as much money at risk due to higher volatility in the market:
  1) The ag economy faces a different set of challenges than the national economy.
  2) The national economic challenge is the availability or lack of credit.
  3) The ag economy is challenged by higher production costs and commodity prices.
  4) Government programs that once were a safety net are undermined by market volatility.
  5) Farm programs no longer guarantee breakeven prices, or anything close to breakeven.
  6) It will become increasingly important to lock in input costs when they are favorable.
  7) With price volatility, it is crucial to control any possible cost of production.
• It may be too late for this year, but fertilizer prices have fallen says NE Extension's Gary Hergert. His data is in the NE Cropwatch newsletter. http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
  1) Natural gas is cheaper and Yara, Mosaic, and Agrium have restarted ammonia plants.
  2) World market urea and f.o.b. Gulf prices are now down to $310 per ton.
  3) Anhydrous ammonia prices f.o.b. Cornbelt are currently around $550 per ton.
  4) International tenders for 32-0-0 (UAN) are under $200 per ton.
  5) DAP and MAP has fallen from $1,000 highs to nearly $200 per ton f.o.b. Florida.
• You are applying ammonia based on a return to nitrogen, how about basing your corn population on a return to seed? That is the suggestion of IL Extension's Mike Roegge who says using a seed cost of $2 per thousand or $160 per 80,000 kernel unit, the economic advantage is at 35,000 population when the price of corn is $4 per bu. He says if the seed is $3 per thousand or $240 per bag, the advantage goes to 30,000 population.
• If you did not apply P & K last fall because you ran out of time and weather, should you do it now? IL Extension's Fabian Fernandez says a soil test will be a critical tool in making a decision. He says if the field needs it, but the budget is not there, apply at least a portion instead of none. As an alternative, apply nutrients as a form of starter fertilizer.
• Storm fronts blow through, and they drop out of the sky. Not raindrops, but black cutworm moths, ready to lay eggs on winter annuals. IL Extension entomologists say the eggs will hatch when the growing degree days reach 300 with a base temperature of 50. That means mid-May is the primary scouting time for the central part of the Cornbelt.
• Corn and soybeans are among the black cutworm's least favorite foods, say Purdue entomologists, who add, "It just so happens that these are the only plants remaining by the time larvae have emerged and weeds have been killed. Research has shown that cutworm larvae starve if weeds are treated with tillage or herbicide 2-3 weeks before crop emergence – an example of a case when controlling weeds can help manage insect pests."
• Farmer minds are being changed about weed control, as the result of increased weed resistance to glyphosate. Aaron Hager's IL Extension survey found only 28% of farmers were using only glyphosate for soybeans, compared to 80% during the early days of Roundup Ready beans. Additionally 91% of 877 farmers surveyed believe that weeds becoming glyphosate resistant will change weed management in the next 5 years.
• "Mudding in" a crop early to avoid planting late will almost always end up being an unwise decision, says Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen, and so he says don't succumb to fear mongering of delayed planting. (He says you have the machinery to catch up.) Nielsen says planting date is one of many "yield influencing factors" (YIF), and he adds, "It is possible for early-planted corn in one year to yield more than, less than, or equal to later-planted corn in another year depending on the exact mix of YIFs for each year."
• Test question: Are compacted soils better resolved with deep tillage or no-till? Ohio Extension's Randall Reeder says yields will recover better in compacted soils with continuous no-till than deep tillage. Compacted with a 600 bu. grain cart, Reeder said soils had a 15% corn yield reduction when sub-soiled annually for 6 years, versus only a 9% reduction with no-till. For soybeans, the declines were 24% and 13%, respectively.
• If seed beans are still on your shopping list, consult the variety testing results conducted by Extension agronomists in your state. The IL specialists report the beans in maturity group 2 had a 33.3 bu. yield span and group 3 had a 27.7 bu. yield span. Agronomist Vince Davis says a few good hours selecting seed is time well spent.
• To treat, or not to treat, that is the question about soybean fungicides, and Iowa State Extension's X. B. Yang says only 3% of seed was treated 10 years ago, but 50% of it is today, and the driving forces may be the cost of soybean seed and early spring planting. He says treatments can be beneficial in fields where there is an increased risk of soybean seedling diseases, particularly for Ohio soybean growers preventing phytophthora.
• To make a decision on soybean fungicide, Iowa State's X. B. Yang says do it when:
  1) Seed quality is poor like last year, but this year soybean seed quality is much better.
  2) Fields have phythphthora or pythium, the spring is wet and cool, & planting is early.
  3) Replanting is one case where fungicide treatments are recommended for a good stand.
  4) Early planting is not a reason for treatment, unless planting conditions are poor.
• In addition to those recommendations, MO Extension's Laura Sweets, says use a fungicide treatment if you have a concern the seed is infested with a seed-borne disease, or if the variety being planted is a high yielding variety that is disease-susceptible.
• Stewart's Wilt is caused by a bacteria carried by flea beetles, and can cause havoc in sweet corn fields, while many commercial hybrids carry resistance. The determinant of whether it will be a problem is if temperatures and snow cover allowed the flea beetles to survive. In parts of the Midwest winter temperatures averaged less than 24 degrees, and that indicates reduced survival and fewer problems with Stewart's Wilt. If your winter was warmer, Gaucho and Cruiser have reduced the problem 50% to 85% in sweetcorn.
• Do lower rates of pelletized lime equal higher rates of ag lime? Ohio Extension specialists say the comparison is total neutralizing power, fineness, and moisture, and they add, "Just because you needed twice as much ag-lime as pelletized lime does not necessarily make pelletized lime the best choice based on cost, especially when pelletized lime can cost 5-7 times more per ton than ag lime. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#A

· Farmers across the northern Cornbelt should be close to planting oats, if they have not already. IL Extension's Jim Morrison says his colleagues in Iowa report yield drops of 10% per week after April 15, and his colleagues in Wisconsin say yields drop nearly 20% by May 14. IL Extension specialists encourage a fungicide seed treatment for oats.

• For oat drilling, seed 2-3 bu. per acre or 30 seeds per square foot. For broadcasting oats, increase the rate by 1/2 to 1 bu. per acre. If the oats are planted with alfalfa, seed only 1 to 1.5 bu. per acre. Your fertility program depends upon your yield, and Morrison says oats remove about .38 lbs. of phosphate per bu. and.20 lbs. of potash per bu.
• If you farm in Ohio, there is a 55% chance you are using at least one piece of precision farming equipment. OSU economist Marvin Batte says adoption rates have increased 27% since 1999, but adoption depends on farm size, sales, and types of crops produced. Lime and phosphorous variable rate application netted the greatest benefits.
• Pork producers: Are you really reducing the breeding herd? MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain say gilt slaughter has been running high, but sow slaughter is 12% less than this time in 2008. They report that breeding stock from Canada is down 16.5% from last year, probably due to the Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) law. All in all, they do not believe the breeding herd is changing very much, if any.
• Regarding the beef market, Grimes and Plain report, "…a slowdown in the reduction of the dairy herd, which is a result of milk prices substantially less than cost of production. Why the slowdown is occurring is not clear. The beef cow slaughter indicates beef producers have slowed the decline in the herd if not stopped it. Additional reductions in both the dairy and beef industries are required to get prices at profitable levels."

Is there a benefit to planting treated (insecticide and/or fungicide) soybean seed? I'm not sure there is a correct answer, but rather it depends upon several factors. If these protectants do their job, then you could conceivably reduce your planted population, which may or may not save you some money, depending upon the cost of the treatment compared to the cost savings of a reduced population.

There are really two types of fungicides you can select from. One protects against the "water molds", such as pythium and phytophthora. The other protects against rhizoctonia and fusarium seedling diseases. One thing to remember is that these seed treatments are not intended to provide season long protection. They will safeguard the seeds for 2 weeks or so. Metalaxyl will provide help against the water molds. Other products, such as fludioxonil, trifloxystrobin, pyraclostrobin can help against the others.

Which products should you use? Again, it depends upon the situation. The water molds are only found in moist soil conditions. Pythium is favored by cooler soil temperatures while phytophthora is found in warmer soils. Rhizoctonia and fusarium are opportunistic diseases. Which means they infect the plant when it's under stress. This could be from poor growing conditions or herbicide/insect injury or some other concern. Conditions such as early planting, planting into fields that have had incidence of disease in the past, or using poor quality seed may favor the use of a treatment.

Another point to consider is that you can't sell treated seed into the commodity market. Our advice for many years is that if you're going to use treated seed, use that seed first. After all, the first planted fields are more than likely the best candidates. Since it's more likely they will be cooler and wetter than those planted later.

Will insecticide treated seed be of benefit? When insecticide treated seed first became available, soybean aphid was beginning to make itself known. And for those growers who have early season soybean aphid pressure, then the answer is yes. But those areas are primarily in the northern soybean growing regions of the U.S. The soybean aphid does not overwinter here locally. So even though the insecticide treatment is systemic, it won't last season long. The other early season insect that could cause problems is the bean leaf beetle. However, I've only seen a handful of fields that have ever needed protection from early season bean leaf beetle populations.

The best advice on the use of treated seed would be to run some comparisons. Have some treated versus untreated and run them side by side. And better yet, do several side by sides in the same field. Don't compare field to field. The U of I has conducted fungicide treatment studies since 2001. Their results indicated a 0.8 bushel overall response. The response was greater the earlier the beans were planted.

• Farm Program sign-up dates have been reset by USDA. Farmers wanting to participate in the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program will be able to sign up as early as April 27, but no later than August 14. Participants forego 20% of direct and counter-cyclical payments and 30% of marketing loan benefits. Once a producer signs CCC-509 to enter the ACRE program, that is an irrevocable decision through crop year 2012.
• Even though ACRE sign-up begins on April 27, Michigan State marketing specialist Jim Hilker says wait until the deadline to turn in your paperwork. He says fill out all of the necessary documents over the summer, but don't sign it and turn it in until August 14. Read his rationale at his newsletter: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
  1) You will know the 2008-2009 average crop price within pennies.
  2) The August Crop Report on Aug. 12 will give a good idea of the US crop situation.
  3) You will know the likely 2009-2010 US prices and your state yield outlook.
• USDA's Supply-Demand Report bolstered interest in soybeans by reducing projections for the Argentine crop, raising US export forecasts, and lowering the old crop carryover 20 mil. bu. to 165 mil. Additionally, world ending-stocks were reduced from nearly 50 mmt to under 46 mmt. The average seasonal price was adjusted upward to $9.25-$10.05.
• Corn usage projections were also moved upward by USDA on Thursday, with 50 mil. more bushels being fed, and a 40 mil. bu. cut in the carryover, which is now at 1.700 bil. An increase in world corn trade was also forecast which is expected to reduce the world corn ending-stocks. The average price range was raised 10 cents to $4.00 to $4.40. Find the full report at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf .
• The pork market has pluses and minuses says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt, who says hog prices should exceed costs in the second and third quarters of the year before turning downward next winter and spring. Hurt suggests that the pork industry continue to make cuts in the breeding herd to help the supply meet the demand. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/040609.html .
• The pluses in the pork market will help push market prices into the low $50 range.
  1) Hog prices should soon increase into their typical seasonal patterns.
  2) The breeding herd and farrowing numbers are smaller than had been expected.
  3) Canadian export hogs will drop by 2.3 mil. due to high production costs in Canada.
• The minuses in the pork market will push production costs toward $49 by summer.
  1) Reduced plantings and grain stocks will result in high prices for corn and bean meal.
  2) Pork exports will drop 14% or 700 mil. lbs. compared to 2008, with Chinese cutbacks.
• Nitrogen application #1. Nitrogen prices have been fluctuating, and prices may be substantially different from one supplier to another. Based on the price per pound you pay for nitrogen and what you have forward contracted the corn to sell for, use the N rate calculator at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx . The nitrogen rate calculator will accommodate producers in IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, & WI.
• Nitrogen application #2. IL Extension specialists caution against applying ammonia under the row shortly before planting as well as applying an N solution close to germinating seeds. If applied in strip till, seedlings can be burned if the soil dries out. They recommend use of GPS or assisted steering to apply N between the rows.
• Nitrogen application #3. The most efficient application is when the corn plant is ready to use the nitrogen, which decreases loss. The Extension specialists say, "Claims that some forms of N are "more available" than others, or that the plants "prefer" some forms, are often shaky." More: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1080 .
• If you want uniform corn emergence, OSU Extension provides tips on corn planters:
  1. Keep the planting speed within the range specified in the planter's manual.
  2. Match the seed grade with the planter plate.
  3. Check planters with finger pickups for wear on the back plate and brush.
  4. Check for wear on double-disc openers and seed tubes.
  5. Make sure the sprocket settings on the planter transmission are correct.
  6. Check for worn chains, stiff chain links, and improper tire pressure.
  7. Make sure seed drop tubes are clean and clear of any obstructions.
  8. Clean seed tube sensors if a planter monitor is being used.
  9. Make sure coulters and disc openers are aligned.
  10. Match the air pressure to the weight of the seed being planted.
  11. Follow lubricant recommendations when using seed-applied insecticides
• 82% of IL Bt corn was planted in 2008 with a refuge, according to an Extension survey of producers. But entomologists say that means 18% was not, and they are concerned that thousands of corn acres without a refuge will hasten insect resistance, not only to Bt toxins, but also to the accompanying seed treatments for many secondary insects.
• Spring weather has not been bad, but less than ideal for corn planting, says Extension's Emerson Nafziger. However, he says March corn may have suffered from freezing, light snow, and may not have enough reserves to survive. That means potential replanting. Looking at optimum planting dates from 2005-2008, maximum yields resulted from April 9 corn planting in northern and southern IL, and April 19 in central IL.
• What about delayed planting? Nafziger says, "Delays in planting until past the end of April, though they cost some yield, do not automatically mean large yield losses. Planting even two or three weeks after the optimum date might well produce higher yields than planting into cool, wet, compacted soils closer to, or before, the optimum date." Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1079 .
• Rosettes at this time of year are not state fair ribbons but horseweeds (marestail) popping up in no-till fields, and IA Extension's Bob Hartzler says the best time to control them and other winter annuals is as soon as you can get into the field. The more mature they are the more expensive they are to control, and may go to seed before a burndown.
• Hartzler says adding a residual herbicide with a burndown treatment should give a clean seedbed, and may free you up from having to apply a herbicide at planting. He adds, "It is unrealistic under most situations to expect a pre-emergence herbicide applied several weeks prior to planting to provide full-season control. However, if properly selected for the weeds present in the field, the early application should allow the post-emergence application to be delayed long enough to require only a single post application."
• A timely application of an herbicide to wheat includes weather, according to IL weed specialist Aaron Hager, "Applications made to actively growing weeds and during periods of warm air temperatures generally provide more effective and complete weed control as compared with applications made during cold, cloudy conditions."
• Hager also warns against automatically applying an herbicide with liquid nitrogen. He says read the label, because, "Not all herbicides allow applications with liquid nitrogen as the carrier, and those that do might have specific recommendations with respect to including or excluding other spray additives or their application rates." Hager provides an application rate chart at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1074 .
• A fungicide treatment comes already applied to RR2Yield varieties from Monsanto, but what about its use on other varieties. IL Extension's Carl Bradley recommends it for poor quality soybean seed to improve the stand uniformity, but not improve germination. He also says it provides brief protection from pythium, phytophthora, rhizoctonia, and fusarium, particularly if the beans are planted in April or early May or in cool, wet soil.
• Soybean producers will want to vote during May on whether or not the Secretary of Agriculture should conduct a referendum on the soybean check-off program. Cast ballots at FSA offices between May 4 and May 29. Ballots can also mailed or faxed or obtained via the Internet at: http://www.ams.usda.gov/lsmarketingprograms . A referendum will be held if 10% of the 589,182 US soybean producers vote yes during May balloting.
• "Surprisingly as it may be," MO livestock economists say their beef demand index for Dec-Feb was up 3.4% from a year earlier. "We do not have the data to accurately separate beef demand for steaks and roasts from hamburger. We believe the strong demand is for hamburger. Cull-cow slaughter was up as well as imported beef for January. Most of the weakness in beef demand is at the white-tablecloth restaurants."
• Mark your calendar for the National Small Farms Conference, Sept. 15-17 in Springfield, IL. Topics include USDA assistance to small farms, alternative enterprises, building community support, sustainable farming systems, business management, energy. http://www.conferences.uiuc.edu/conferences/conferenceviewer2/view.cfm?conf=20033

Work recently completed at the U of I Orr Research Center, in Perry (and replicated across the state at the other 5 research farms) investigated the optimal corn planting date and population. This work was conducted to update previous research that was somewhat dated. Other Midwestern Universities research supports this data as well.

Producers have steadily increased corn populations over the years as hybrids have improved in their ability to stand. With this, corn yields have increased as well. Most agronomists would agree that 30K plants (or more) per acre is the optimum population. But at some point, determining the correct population becomes a calculation based upon the price of the seed and the price received for the crop.

Generally speaking, for those higher producing soils, under optimal growing conditions, the closer the final stand is to 35K, the better the results. And for those lower producing soils, populations between 25-30K would be recommended. However, to truly compare economic populations, you must also look at seed cost and the selling price of corn.

Using a seed cost of $2 per thousand ($160 per 80K seeds) and a $4 corn selling price, for those high producing soils, there is an economic advantage for corn population of 35K at harvest (6 bushel yield increase). However, as the seed cost increased, the advantage is reduced. At a seed cost of $2.50 per thousand ($200 per 80K) there is virtually no difference in return between the populations. And as seed cost continues to rise to $3 per thousand ($240 per 80K), the advantage goes to the 30K final population.

Data from the date of planting portion of that study indicate that for central IL, there was only 3 bushels of yield difference between the planting dates of April 1- May 10. With the period of April 11-30 averaging 174 bu/acre, and 10 days earlier or 10 days later averaging 171 bu/acre. This data was generated from 2 sites (Champaign and Perry) over 4 years.

• The Prospective Plantings Report was the headline this week, indicating 7.8 mil. fewer crop acres would be planted this year. The largest cutback was a 4.5 mil. acre drop in wheat, 75% of that in winter wheat. Other reductions were nearly 660,000 fewer cotton acres, nearly 450,000 fewer sunflower acres, and a 1.3 mil. acre cut in sorghum.
• USDA projected corn acreage at 84.986 mil. which is about 1 mil. acres less than last year, with the bulk of the cutback in marginal corn ground on the fringe of the Cornbelt. IL marketing specialist Darrel Good says that will mean 77.786 mil. harvested acres, and with a 152.8 bu. trend yield, 2009 corn production should reach 11.862 bil. bu. He says that will sharply reduce stocks because ethanol production and exports should increase.
• USDA projected soybean acreage at 76.024 mil. acres, which is 306,000 more acres than 2008, and points to 75 mil. harvested acres. Paired with a 41.6 bu. trend yield, the 2009 soybean production should be 3.12 bil. bu., up 160 mil. bu. from last year. Read Good's analysis: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/033109.html .
• USDA also released the Quarterly Stocks report, which projected corn stocks at 6.958 bil. bu. Good says exports for the quarter were off 262 mil. bu., domestic use dropped only 31 mil. bu., since ethanol use was larger, and feed use of corn was down slightly. Soybean stocks were 1.302 bil., with crush down 47 mil., and exports up 50 mil. bu.
• On-farm stocks of corn climbed 8% compared to last year and off-farm stocks dropped 7% observes IA St. marketing specialist Chad Hart. He said farmers are also holding more soybean stocks which are up 11% compared to year ago levels, and off-farm bean stocks are down 23% versus 2008. On-farm wheat stocks are up 205% from 2008.
• Corn and bean acres have been on the increase in recent years, says IA Extension's Hart, "In fact, the amount of "other" crop acreage, not including corn, soybeans, wheat, and hay, has dropped from 50 million acres in 2002 to less than 40 million acres projected for 2009. Much of that decline has hit the cotton industry. So while the overall crop base has been in decline, corn and soybean area has been able to increase."
• The large cut in crop acres was attributed by Hart to result from higher input costs, "Some can be attributed to weather events, such as lingering drought impacts in Texas and late harvesting of fall crops in the northern Great Plains. Double crop acreage is also likely to decline in 2009. But if weather conditions cooperate, and crop prices look attractive, then some of this lost acreage could be planted in 2009." He says the trade is now pointing to season average prices of $4.10 for corn and $8.50 for soybeans. Read Chad Hart's newsletter at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo040109.pdf
• "Soybean surprise" is what Mike Woolverton at Kansas St. called the USDA planting intentions report, since the market was expecting 79.25 mil. acres, and he wonders if enough beans will be produced. He says stocks are 9% under last year, and with exports better than expected, ending stocks will be 6% of usage, below the pipeline supply.
• Woolverton says South America will not make up the shortfall. "Southern Hemisphere harvest is just now reaching the drought-damaged areas of Southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina where reported yields are running 40% below last year," Woolverton says. He expects USDA's next report to show projected global supply low relative to global demand, even though demand has been weakened by the global economic downturn.
• Kansas State's Woolverton was also surprised with the "triple-digit declines in spring wheat planting intentions. Farmers in ND, MT, MN, and SD; the 4 largest spring wheat producing states, expect to plant about 700,000 fewer acres of wheat; and that was before the recent flooding that may prevent spring wheat planting in some areas." Read his newsletter: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Purdue's Chris Hurt says we are returning to a normal grain marketing situation, with aggressive bids for the new crop and with basis levels closer to historical levels. But while he says stability is returning, he says grain prices have probably hit bottom.
• Pesticides have value says the CropLife Foundation in a report funded by crop protection firms: http://www.croplifefoundation.org/cpri_benefits_insecticides.htm
  1) Each year, approximately 45 mil. acres of US crops are treated with insecticides
  2) Farmers annually spend $1.2 bil. on insecticides to prevent crop loss to insects.
  3) If untreated, 31 of 50 primary crops would suffer production loss of 40% or more.
  4) Seven of the crops would suffer nationwide production losses over 70%.
  5) For every $1 spent on insecticides, US farmers gain $19 in production value.
• We won't tattle on you, but your pesticide storage may not be up to standards. IL Extension's Jim Morrison says, "Pesticides on the farm should also be kept locked and the pesticide storage building should be labeled with a sign stating "Danger – Pesticides – Keep Out". Keep inventory records of pesticides up to date and easily accessible. Have a complete label and a Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS) for every product on the farm."
• Alfalfa analysis #1. Evaluate your stand by plants in 1 square foot, and you should find: 1) Greater than 12 in the spring of the first production year, 2) Greater than 8 in the spring of the second year, and 3) Greater than 5 in the spring of the third year. Before tearing up the stand, consider forage inventory, cash flow, and available land.
• Alfalfa analysis #2. The preferred method of stand evaluation is a stem count per square foot. This approach is a good indicator of potential yield. Stem counts can be taken when the plants are 4 to 6 inches or taller. Count any stem that would be cut at harvest. If there are fewer than 39 robust stems per square foot, consider tearing up the stand.
• Wheat analysis. Evaluate your wheat as the soil dries out, particularly if you had little snow cover. Count wheat plants over a 20-foot span in five areas of your field for a period of several weeks to decide whether plants will outgrow injury and to assess any damage that may have occurred. One general guideline is 70 tillers per square foot are considered adequate for optimal yield, says IL Extension's Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing.
• Except for those being caught in traps, black cutworm moths are spreading across the Cornbelt, with females seeking suitable sites to lay eggs. IL Extension entomologists say fields with the greatest risk of black cutworm injury this spring include first-year corn infested with common chickweed and other winter annuals, especially where conservation tillage (including no-till) has been practiced. The annual threat from black cutworms has been reduced by the use of Bt corn, seed treatments and soil insecticides.
• Yoo-hoo. Any soybean aphids out there? The every other year schedule no longer is any good, and specialists say the number of aphids they find in the fall no longer gives a good indication of the population the following year. IL Entomologist David Voegtlin says few eggs were found on buckthorn, but they will have overwintered somewhere in the Midwest and will likely expand into treatable populations in those areas. Read his observations at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1070 .
• Your soil type may dictate how you approach spring fieldwork, say IA State ag engineers. Managing corn stubble in continuous corn, which was not worked last fall, depends on soil moisture. They say avoid conventional tillage this spring.
  1) Loess soils that are wet in the top 2-3 in. should be no-tilled using row cleaners.
  2) In Glacial-till soils, run an empty planter with row cleaners to push residue aside, then
  let the soil dry for 2-3 days prior to planting, which will improve corn germination.
  3) Strip-till or disking to "dry" the soil will only result in compacted clods at planting.
  4) If planting into wet soil, increase seeding rate 2-3,000 to compensate for stand loss.
• If you are still juggling corn prices and the cost of anhydrous ammonia, consult the updated version of the corn nitrogen rate calculator, which helps your decision on how much to apply, taking corn prices and nitrogen costs into consideration. Find the calculator at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx .
• Increase your corn yield with 10 ideas from Ohio St. agronomist Peter Thomison:
  1) Know the yield potential of the field, its yield history, and soil productivity.
  2) Use hybrids with high ratings over many trials, using Bt if you have rootworms.
  3) Use pest management practices that provide effective, timely pest control.
  4) Begin planting before the optimum date if dry, and aim to finish by May 10.
  5) Plant 1.5-2 in. deep, at 4.5 to 5 mph, and monitor to prevent uneven emergence.
  6) Adjust seeding rate by field, and plant up to 32,000 on highly productive soils.
  7) Use the most economical N rate, avoid N loss, and consider using stabilizers.
  8) Use soil testing to adjust pH and guide P & K fertilization at optimum rates.
  9) Till only when necessary and when soil conditions are right.
  10) Take advantage of crop rotation to boost corn yield 10-15% after soybeans.

It's getting crunch time. April 1^st is here and past and as I write this the prediction is for rain two of the next 4 days. Many of you have yet to apply dry fertilizer for this years crop, and quite a few corn acres need nitrogen applied as well. The days are going to be long this spring.

Fertilizer prices have really eased since last fall. They're still very high, but at least we've gotten a little break. The question still remains though, how much, if any, fertilizer does this years crop really need? And to answer that question, you'll need a recent soil test. Use that test to determine if your crop will benefit from phosphorus or potassium. Based upon data from IL and IA, soil test phosphorus levels of 20 #/acre will provide 97% of maximum corn yield and 100% of soybean yield. Soil test potassium levels of 250#/acre will provide 94% of corn and 96% of soybean yield.

The question is then what is your current soil test, and if they're lower that these numbers, what will it cost to bring them up. Or if they're higher, how much can you save by not fertilizing. These soil test levels are not all that high. Many fields are probably at or above that level. But if you elect not to fertilize this year, your soil test level will go down as the crop draws up nutrients. Just remember, you can't play this game very long without sacrificing yield, unless you have very high soil test levels.

Nitrogen is the other concern now. With (likely) limited time to perform field work, every minute counts. Do you really want to be pulling a tool bar across the field when you could be planting corn? There are other nitrogen sources available, and this year may be the year to consider them. Liquid UAN (28 or 32%) can be applied with the herbicide. Yes, it can be subject to loss since it's surface applied (unless you incorporate your corn herbicides). However, rainfall within 10-14 days of application will eliminate those loss concerns. There's also a product called Agrotain, that can be used to limit loss as well.

Urea can be applied with the dry fertilizer as another option. Again, the concern is loss. And the concern is greater with urea versus UAN (since only half the nitrogen in UAN is subject to loss whereas all the nitrogen in urea is). We usually recommend that urea be incorporated to reduce opportunities for loss. Or, Agrotain can be used with urea to help reduce loss. Or another alternative would be coated urea, which breaks down via moisture and temperature, taking 4-8 weeks to do so. The only concern with coated urea is that it can float away if surface applied and not incorporated, and heavy rains occur.

Of course, sidedressing is another option. Which is the method that would allow you to reduce your nitrogen rate since you'll be applying closer to the time when the crop would utilize the fertilizer.

• Buckle your seatbelt for the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, to be issued that morning by USDA. Statisticians interviewed thousands of farmers earlier this month on their acreage plans. The market is expecting corn acreage at 84.548 mil. acres, the average of an 81.4 to 89 mil. acre range. That compares to 85.982 mil. acres last year.
• How many soybean acres will you plant? The market thinks it will be in a range of 75.9 to 81.5 mil. acres, with the average at 79.251 mil. That would be substantially more than the 75.718 mil. acres planted last year. Many observers who are weighing in on the forecast believe soybean acres will rise because of the greater chance for profitability.
• Speaking of soybeans, cash prices have swung more than $2 since last December, including a substantial spurt last week. IL Extension's Darrel Good says that resulted from higher energy prices, a weaker dollar, and a rally in financial futures. Read more of his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/032309.html
• South America should be dominating the bean market says Good, but with a smaller crop in Brazil and angry farmers in Argentina, export buyers continue to gobble up US supplies. That points to a record level of soybean exports, thanks in major part to China, which has purchased 58% of them. Exports will be pushing toward 1.2 bil. bu. this year.
• Darrel Good says the size of the new crop will have a major impact on soybean prices, but there will still be uncertainty about that even after the Prospective Plantings report. The current weather in the upper Plains may throw planting into question in the Dakotas.
• The rebound in soybean futures and the stronger basis are providing an opportunity for pricing old crop beans, but Good says it is a harder decision for the new crop, "November futures are slightly above the spring price guarantee for crop revenue insurance so there is some downside risk for unpriced new crop soybeans. That risk is small for the insured portion of the crop, but greater for the uninsured portion," favoring frequent, small sales.
• Marketing recommendations come from Extension's Mike Roberts at Virginia Tech:
  1) Corn: The time to get your old crop corn sold is NOW as this sales window is not expected to last. It is a very good idea to get the '09 crop priced to 45% if you haven't done so already. Feed purchasers should wait at least another week or two to buy.
  2) Soybeans: It is a good idea to sell all old crop soybeans in the bin and get up to 35% of the '09 crop priced now. A consensus of sources over the last few days has agreed it is not unreasonable to see loan rate soybeans before this market is done.
• In the Quarterly stocks report Tuesday the market expects 7 bil. bu. of corn compared to 6.859 bil. a year ago, and beans at 1.322 bil. bu. compared to 1.434 bil. in 2008.
• The Cattle on Feed report indicated feedlot inventory is 5.3% under 2008 levels, with February placements down 2.6% and marketings down 5.3%. Shane Ellis at Iowa State says the numbers should have been bullish, but the weakness in beef demand has sapped the strength in the market and consumers still prefer lower cost protein sources. More http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/info/info2009/s0901.pdf
• Cattle price forecasts are more of a function of oil prices than numbers in feedlots, says MO livestock economist Scott Brown, "When oil prices surge, more corn is diverted into ethanol for fuel, raising the cost of corn for feed. In turn, higher feed costs lower feedlot demand for calves. That means less money for cow-calf producers." Brown also says a lower dollar will spur overseas demand for US beef, and 8% of US beef is exported.
• Some beef producers will not survive, says Brown, "Beef producers surviving the economic downturn will be in position to profit in 2010 and beyond." He adds, "Beef supply is not that plentiful. In a recovery, there won't be enough beef to meet the demand. That applies locally and around the world. Consumers in foreign countries want our beef. It just depends on whether their economies will support buying U.S. beef."
• A valuable commodity produced on many livestock farms and highly desired by gardeners and landscape aficionados now has a central trading point. Not as complex as the Board of Trade, and futures and basis are not involved, a manure exchange has been established by IL Extension livestock management specialist Randy Fonner. You won't have to pay a brokerage commission at: http://www.manureshare.illinois.edu/ .
• Harvesting corn residue may become profitable, but requires nutrient restoration. More: http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/cropsystems/M1243.html
  1) Target corn residue harvest in fields that will be planted to corn next year.
  2) Rotate fields so that residue is not removed from the same field every year.
  3) Reduce tillage following residue harvest.
  4) To restore carbon, use manure instead of or in addition to commercial fertilizer
  5) Consider a winter cover crop after residue removal. Roots from winter cover crops are extremely effective at scavenging residual soil nitrate and adding carbon to the soil.
• What is your target corn population? MN Extension agronomist Jeff Coulter says IL researchers found, "As yield potential increased from 135 to 225 bushels per acre, the economically optimum plant population increased from about 25,000 to 32,000 plants per acre." In MN Coulter found, "Yield was maximized at 36,000 plants per acre, and a final stand of 32,000 to 34,000 plants per acre was necessary to maximize economic return. Read more at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2009/09MNCN03.html
• What is your soybean planting rate? NE researchers used 30" rows for 3 years and planting rates from 90,000 to 180,000 per acre. "The 120,000, 150,000, and 180,000 yields were statistically the same (only a 0.3-bu. difference between the 120,000 and 150,000 rates) and were significantly better than the 90,000 seed-per-acre plots; however, note that the 90,000 plot yielded only 1.7 bu/ac less than 150,000 plot." They said it was the ability of soybeans to compensate for reduced population. http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
• The final recommendation from the NE research is to reduce populations by 40,000 to 120,000 seeds per acre. "This results in a savings of $10.66 to $18.57 per acre based on seed costs of $40-65 a bag." They report that a 90% stand has been achieved.
• Insect management in your corn and soybeans requires a "Do I need this" answer. That is the position of Ohio State entomologists who share your concern. http://corn.osu.edu/
  1) For corn after corn, take preventative action against corn rootworm larvae.
  2) Crop rotation is still the preferred action in areas without the rootworm variant.
  3) Take preventative action against corn borers if you have a history of borer problems.
  4) Transgenic hybrids are recommended against borers if corn is planted after late May.
  5) The use of transgenic hybrids requires the planting of a 20% refuge to non-Bt corn.
  6) Seed treatments are recommended if the crop is being planted into weeds or alfalfa.
  7) Seed treatments will not control black cutworm and are not recommended.
  8) Where cutworm damage is common, use a soil insecticide at planting or Herculex.
  9) Seed treatments on soybeans will not have any impact on controlling soybean aphids.
  10) Unless high populations, seed treatments will not be economical for bean leaf beetles.
  11) Seed treatments are warranted on food grade beans to prevent bean pod mottle virus.
• If you are growing non-GMO soybeans, weed control should not be a major problem if you follow a 4-step program recommended by Ohio St. agronomists. http://corn.osu.edu/
  1) Start weed free at planting with tillage or a preplant herbicide burndown application.
  2) Include a broad spectrum residual herbicide in the preplant burndown.
  3) Once the beans have emerged, apply a post herbicide to small weeds.
  4) Make a second post herbicide application for survivors or late emerging weeds.
• Beware of the potential for weed patches in some fields to have developed resistance to PPO inhibitors found in Flexstar and Cobra/Phoenix say the Ohio St. weed specialists. And they say the really bad news is that herbicides being recommended for non-GMO soybeans may be driving more weed populations to become resistant to PPO inhibitors. That is because of the prevalence of weed populations that are also ALS resistant. Their solution is to plant non-GMO beans in a field only once every 3-4 years in a rotation.
• If you are considering a foliar fungicide for wheat, WI Extension agronomists want you to first consider what disease resistance is carried by the variety of wheat planted. They say, "Economically, the decision to make a foliar fungicide application is dependent on crop yield potential, commodity prices, pesticide cost including application, and crop yield loss caused by wheel track damage. An adequate yield potential for soft red winter wheat would be in the 55-65 bu/a range. The goal when considering yield and economics is that you want to cover the total cost of the fungicide application."
• Have you been nurturing a young herd, flock, or whatever of soybean cyst nematodes this winter? They may be out of sight and out of mind, but they are hungry and can't wait for you to plant soybeans. They are temporarily parked in fields with host plants of purple deadnettle, henbit, pennycress, shepherd's purse, bittercress, & chickweed.

Over the past few years, we've been discussing the need to use a pre plant or pre emerge herbicide ahead of Roundup Ready soybeans or corn. The reason being to reduce the incidence of resistance developing from continued use of glyphosate herbicide. And most producers have followed through on this management practice, finding it saves them time, money and yield.

It's even more critical to follow this management tactic as we have waterhemp resistant to glyphosate herbicide in the area. We also have waterhemp resistant to the diphenyl ether herbicides (cobra, phoenix, blazer, flexstar, etc.) as well. And the waterhemp populations resistant to diphenyl ethers are much more common that those waterhemp populations resistant to glyphosate. So the need to use a pre-emerge herbicide is even more important, because in soybeans, those are the only two herbicide families that can be used post-emerge to control waterhemp.

A number of herbicides are available in soybean to provide pre control of waterhemp, including: valor, authority, intrro, dual, treflan, prowl (and premixes including these products). And the cost of these products will range from approximately $5-$10 per acre. It's the cheapest form of resistance management you can use if glyphosate is the planned second trip.

The use of a pre herbicide ahead of Roundup Ready crops allows you delay the post herbicide trip (glyphosate) because of the weed control offered. However, keep in mind that weeds do compete with crop yield, and follow the guidelines of 4-6 inch size weeds for corn and 6-8 inch size weeds for soybean when making that glyphosate post application. Otherwise, allowing weeds to grow to larger sizes can cost you big bucks, much more than the cost of the herbicide and the application.

Aaron Hager, U of I Extension Weed Science, recently determined the exact cost of delayed post emergent application, based upon soybean price and yield lost due to delayed application. With a 50 bushel yield, and bean prices of $10, just a one day delay in post emerge application will cost you $5 per acre in lost yield. If you delay that application by 5 days, then the weed competition will reduce your soybean yield to the tune of $25 per acre.

• Will corn production match consumption needs for the 2009-10 marketing year? That is what Darrel Good is wondering in his latest newsletter, since consumption will decide ending stocks and influence your cropping pattern for next year. The IL Extension specialist says recent export demand has been strong enough to exceed USDA estimates.
• Corn used for ethanol production in December was at a record level says Good, indicating recovery of the ethanol industry and more favorable margins. While USDA's ethanol use projection is more optimistic than Good expects, he says the mandate for ethanol production is for 12 bil. gal. in 2010, requiring 500 mil. more bushels of corn.
• Darrel Good says total corn consumption could reach 12.5 bil. bu. in the 2009-10 marketing year, so 12.2 bil. bu. will be needed this year. With a 152.8 trend yield, he says that will require 79.8 mil. harvested acres and 87 mil. planted. Good says USDA expects 86 mil. planted and the market is currently expecting less than 87 mil. planted. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/031609.html .
• Crude oil prices, the stock market, and the value of the dollar have been the main features in the commodity market in the eyes of South Dakota marketing specialist Alan May, "As long as the current recession remains in place, grain markets will be strongly influenced by those outside factors that may override the more typical supply and demand fundamentals of grain." He said corn has rallied recently despite those.
• Soybeans are tied to the hip of crude oil, believes Alan May at South Dakota St., "When crude falls, beans fall in value. When crude oil rallies, soybean prices have improved." He says crude oil prices have seen a more consistent stabilization with the more recent trend (the last few weeks) being one of modest price growth.
• ACRE answers were provided this week by FSA, along with the reminder that June 1 is the sign-up deadline for 2009 participation, and that all producers on the farm must agree to the ACRE participation. The Q & A provisions indicate there is no crop insurance requirement, and participation is allowed in future years, if you opt out of the program for this year. Read more: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/acre.pdf .
• ACRE was a question mark when economists at the Food and Ag Policy Research Institute calculated their 10-year projection for prices and production. There was uncertainty about how many farmers would sign up for the ACRE program or stay with the conventional rates for direct payments and market loans. FAPRI economists say ACRE pricing scenarios show advantages for producers of most crops in the Cornbelt.
• The FAPRI 10-year baseline begins with acreage contraction in 2009 due to weak global demands that will not support the additional acreage seen last year. FAPRI expects 4 mil. fewer acres being planted this year to the 12 major crops. The FAPRI report on crops and livestock prices is at: www.fapri.missouri.edu .
• If you are starting the year behind the curve, save time and expense by eliminating tillage for soybeans after corn. Iowa St. researchers say there is an insignificant soybean yield response from tillage. The cost is $18-25 per acre for conventional tillage compared to no-till, and 6 years of research shows only 1 bu. per acre additional yield.
• It must be spring, if black cutworms are being found in traps. Two adult moths were found in Southern IL on Mar. 10. Temperatures are important for larvae hatch, and weather stations have already recorded 200 degree-days just east of St. Louis, MO.
• If black cutworms are a concern, Ohio St. entomologists say they do not recommend seed treatments for black cutworm control. They recommend scouting, then application of a rescue treatment if larvae are found. They say if the field has a history of black cutworms or a high population of winter annuals, then a preventative tactic that works can be used, such as using an insecticide at planting or using Herculex XTRA seed.
• Is Integrated Pest Management (IPM) a priority? IL entomologists surveyed farmers:
  1) 83% believe economic thresholds are still viable for insect pest management.
  2) 73% say insect control decisions are based on economic thresholds.
  3) 24% say insect control decisions are based on potential yield benefit.
  4) 97% planted a Bt hybrid in 2008 seeking a yield benefit.
  5) 80% would still plant a Bt hybrid even if corn borer or rootworm levels were low.
• Call it horseweed or marestail, it has become a significant headache for many farmers as tillage declines. Capable of both a summer and winter life cycles, patches that are resistant to several herbicide families are becoming more common. IL Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager says it should be controlled before planting with tillage help. Find complete advice at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1064 .
  1) If tillage is not an option, existing plants should be controlled before 6 in. in height.
  2) Use glyphosate burndown with tankmix of dicamba, paraquat, and 2,4-D.
  3) Ester formulations of 2,4-D are preferable over amine formulations.
  4) Glufosinate can be used, and improved with tankmix of atrazine or metribuzin.
• What is your weed crop in the field to be planted to non-GMO soybeans? Ohio St. weed specialist Mark Loux expects your weed issues to be difficult to control, since many weeds are becoming ALS-resistant. He says your general weed program may be:
  1) Use tillage or a burndown to begin planting from the point of being weed free.
  2) Include broad-spectrum residual herbicides in the preplant burndown treatment.
  3) Apply a post herbicide to small weeds, and a second post application to late arrivals.
• Did your wheat survive the winter? Fields with no ground cover or where plants failed to root adequately before the December cold snap are the ones of most concern to IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger. Fluctuating temperatures can cause the soil to heave the crown out of the soil and expose roots to sun and wind damage, as well as freezing.
• Wheat diseases are also a cold weather issue, particularly wheat mosaic virus that lives with a fungal organism that enters wheat roots. Cold spells last fall could have benefited the virus that infected the wheat. Pythium root rot is also a potential fungus if wheat was planted into wheat chaff and straw and wet soils. While a systemic fungicide can help against Pythium, both problems can be helped with using resistant wheat varieties.
• Wheat that is greening up deserves a shot of spring nitrogen. Ohio St. agronomists say yields can be improved if the timing of the application came when the first stem node was visible, compared to an application when the wheat was turning green. Yields dropped 10-15% if the nitrogen application was delayed to the early boot stage.
• High-yielding, irrigated continuous corn may be short on phosphorus says NE nutrient management specialist Charles Wortmann. He says current recommendations are to not add phosphorus when your soil test indicates it is over 15 parts per million. However his new research recommends applying up to 20 ppm of phosphorus on continuous corn.
• But with phosphorus costing $1,000 per ton, is that something you can get along with out? Purdue fertility specialist Jim Camberato says, "Contrary to popular belief, more often than not the corn crop responds to the nitrogen component and not the phosphorous component of starter fertilizer." He says the crop only benefits from 5-10% of the P.
• What is your "footprint" for emitting greenhouse gases? The EPA is contemplating a monitoring program of industrial sources of methane, carbon dioxide and other gases, say MO Extension specialists. Included on the list for monitoring are manure storage facilities, but left off the list are manure composting facilities, tillage, farm burning, and the controversial "cow tax." The specialists say there is no tax included in the monitoring proposal, but consider it a first step toward limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Read more: http://nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/greenhouse_gas.asp
• 320 acres of energy grass are growing on the largest bio-fuels research farm in the US, located at Urbana, IL, where miscanthus, switchgrass, corn, and restored prairie are under research to compare insect and disease challenges, environmental benefits, economic opportunities and potential energy per acre of each. The biggest challenge is planting the potato-like roots of miscanthus, and researchers are inventing planters and harvesters.
• Corn is one of those biomass crops, but is being cultivated for its stover value instead of grain. IL researchers have rearranged the genes to produce a high sugar content grain, sugar in the stalk, and bulky biomass in the stalk. The plant uses very little nitrogen, and researchers say yields, even with low nitrogen, top production records for switchgrass.

• The March 31 Prospective Plantings Report will confirm whether USDA's estimate of fewer planted corn and soybean acres in the recent Outlook Conference was correct. IL Extension's Darrel Good says the combination of 86 mil. corn and 77 mil. soybean acres appears low, given the 4.2 mil. acre cut in wheat and 2 mil. acre cut in cotton and rice.
• Good says USDA believes planted acreage will decline as a result of lower returns, but farmers will have to confirm that in the survey now underway. He says the market will assess the intentions and decide if prices need to change to alter the intended acreage. He says unless acreage is reduced, there may be a potential surplus of one or more crops.
• The Quarterly Stocks Report also will be released in two weeks, and Darrel Good says it will be more important for corn than for the bean market. Bean use is well known, and Good says March 1 stocks should be about 1.3 bil. bu. But he says conflicts between USDA and Census Bureau statistics on corn exports make the stocks estimates difficult to predict. He's estimating 2^nd quarter use at 2.6 bil. and March 1 stocks at 7.1 bil. bu. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/030909.html
• USDA's March Supply Demand Report forecast a 100 mil. bu. increase in corn demand by ethanol refiners, the result of improved profitability. Carryout dropped to 1.74 bil. bu. Export demand was lowered by 50 mil. bu. and feed demand held stead at 5.3 bil. bu. Corn exports are competing with other nations and feed quality wheat. USDA estimated the season average price at $4.10 from early season forward contracts.
• USDA's March Supply Demand Report forecast a 10 mil bu. drop in the soybean crush to 1.64 bil. which results from weaker demand for oil and meal. With bio-diesel facing low profitability, soy oil demand was reduced by 700 mil. lbs. Soybean exports remain strong, and export projections were raised to 1.185 bil. bu. thanks to Chinese demand. Carryout was dropped to 185 mil. and the season average price was reset to $9.35 per bu.
• USDA's March Supply Demand Report forecast higher carryover for the 2008 wheat crop putting stocks-to-use at 32%. While Kansas State's Mike Woolverton says the report was bearish for wheat, USDA held the season price range steady at $6.70-$6.90. Woolverton says the global wheat crop grew with larger Australian yields.
• Woolverton at Kansas State says the S/D report does not address any "demand destruction," although exports are down. He says, "This is a more optimistic picture than we have been led to believe, given recent press coverage of bad economic news. If the stock market has indeed found its bottom, look for commodities to decouple from the decline in stock prices and attract more attention from traders in coming weeks."
• Commodity prices may be low now, but they will return to higher levels over the next 10 years say FAPRI economists at MO and IA St. Recovery is projected in 2010, helped by China, India, and Vietnam with 7-8% economic growth. They expect ethanol prices to fall because of lower crude oil prices, but bio-energy mandates ensure demand growth.
• The FAPRI economists forecast soft wheat and corn prices into the 2009-10 marketing years, but eventually climb on increased demand. Weaker demand will also soften soybean prices, but world trade will grow by one-third in the coming decade helped by Chinese demand. Meat prices should be strong because of growing global demand.
• Farmers considering the biotech endorsement for crop insurance, do not have to make that commitment by the March 16 crop insurance deadline. USDA's deadline for the BE option is not until June 30^th, which is the deadline for FSA planted acreage reporting. Anyone using the BE option must provide the agent with seed and planting records, says Stephen Johnson of IA St., who says hail and wind policies can be added after March 16.
• Dryland farmers in the Western Cornbelt are being urged by Kansas St. economist Art Barnaby to obtain a minimum 70% CRC or RA-HPO insurance, or greater coverage for optional units. He's recommending enterprise units for corn in a single county, which has a discounted premium and a higher USDA subsidy. Barnaby says an 80% coverage on enterprise units increases total guaranteed dollars and gains SURE disaster protection.
• Barnaby says his reason for CRC or RA-HPO with the lowest premium cost is because they have no downside price limits, and the upside limit is 2 times the base price on all revenue products. More: http://www.agmanager.info/crops/insurance/risk_mgt/default.asp
• Don't consider any shenanigans says Art Barnaby at Kansas St. if you are thinking about shorting fertilizer applications because your revenue crop insurance guarantee is more than your crop might gross. Barnaby says crop insurance policies require farmers to follow good farming practices, and an adjuster could deny a claim if it isn't followed. Barnaby also says that will only serve to lower your APH for future years.
• ACRE is strongly recommended by Mich. State ag economist Jim Hilker, instead of relying on Direct Payments, "ACRE is more like revenue insurance (although it is not a substitute for crop insurance), what are the odds there will be a payoff? My analysis at this point is that there is over a 50% chance that ACRE for corn will trigger at both the state and farm levels in 2009, and probably more than make up for the lost 20% of direct payments." Read more of his Outlook: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• While Hilker's vantage point is the state of Michigan, he calculates that expected corn, soybean, and wheat prices would trigger payment from the ACRE program this year:
  1) Corn: "It would only take a price a bit lower than the $3.60 estimate to trigger ACRE even with trend yields if the 2008-09 price remains at $3.90 or higher."
  2) Wheat: "If the $5.15 price forecast occurs, it would trigger ACRE for wheat with normal yields. The past two years' average price is 22% higher."
  3) Soybeans: "The average of the 2007-08 and 2008-09 average annual weighted bean prices is $9.67. The $8.00 projection for 2009-10 is over 20% lower (compared to $9.67). Normal yields or less and we have another ACRE trigger."

• Farmers baffled by varying refuge requirements for BT corn with stacked traits may want to follow NE Extension recommendations, since rootworm BT is more restrictive than corn borer BT traits. Read the latest newsletter: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
  1) Plant one common refuge, void of Bt traits, instead of planting 2 separate refuges.
  2) Plant the refuge in the same field as the Bt traits to help meet distance requirements.
  3) Know the minimum required refuge size for a particular geography and Bt trait.
• If charcoal rot is one of your soybean headaches, you will want to see how Doug Jardine of Kansas St. recommends identification and management. He's featured on a free web-based program available until the end of March, and provided by the Plant Management Network, which publishes agricultural resource materials, such as Jardine's webcast. http://www.plantmanagementnetwork.org/edcenter/seminars/SampleWebcast/
• Dairymen are urged to tune into a web-based seminar at 12 Noon on March 20 about Feeding Strategies with Current Milk Prices. IL Extension's Mike Hutjens will focus on feed benchmarks, impact of nutrient reduction, by-product feeds, and monitoring cow performance. Free registration: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/356266420
• Dairy operations with silage need to observe optimum planting dates. MN agronomist Jeff Coulter says milk per ton of silage was within 1% of the maximum when corn was planted April 15 to May 17 in WI, and milk per acre was within 1% of the maximum when planting dates were April 21 and May 6. He says silage dry matter increases with higher plant population, but dry matter yield slows when populations exceed 35,000. Read his newsletter at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2009/09MNCN02.html
• Canadian hogs entering the US have slowed say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. In fact feeder pig imports are down over 36%, in part because there are 10% fewer hogs in Canada and the breeding herd is down 7%. They also say the US COOL labeling law makes it less attractive to import live animals instead of meat.
• Cattle feeders have suffered huge losses this winter say Grimes and Plain, with many closeouts in the red by over $200/head. The result is feed lots slowing down their rate of marketing to force up prices, but that forced up slaughter weights by 29 lbs this week.
• After measuring carbon in the soil of 7 eastern states, OSU agronomists say carbon storage is greatest in the top 8 inches of no-till fields; but if you measure stored carbon down to 12 inches, more will be found in plowed fields than in no-till. Survey leader Rattan Lal says carbon storage is best done based on soil type, rather than by tillage.
• Farms are still on the wrong side of the digital divide. The 2007 Ag Census indicates 57% have Internet access, up from 50% in 2002. Of those that have access, 58% have a high-speed connection, which increases farmers' efficiency in using the Internet.

• Soybeans may have a record year, says Iowa State's Chad Hart, particularly if 77 mil. acres are planted to beans, which would be a record amount of land. He says USDA is projecting that level based on lower input costs compared to corn. The resulting 3.24 bil. bu. would also be a record, as would a projected 1.225 bil. bu. of exports. However, Hart says production will exceed use and stocks will increase with an average $8 season price.
• Grain markets still have their sights on South American crops and how much production was lost to the dry spell over recent months, says Chad Hart. USDA thinks South American corn production will be down 21% and beans down 6%. With global trade shifting to South America, US weekly corn sales were down 66% and exports down 15% compared to the prior week. Soybean sales were down 69% and exports down 28%.
• Corn prices have been hurt by some negative fundamentals says Mike Roberts at VA Tech. He says a drop in crude oil, plunging equity markets, and gains in the US dollar pressured prices, along with the fact Japan bought Romanian corn, "New surveys show that many producers have '08 corn still in the bin. It would be a very good idea to get it sold at this time. It might be a good idea to price up to 45% of the 2009 crop."
• The soybean market is impacted by the same fundamentals says Roberts, who also says soybean prices are being pressured by the fact "The Argentinean government is interested in taking over their large soybean industry so they may regulate prices to their own buyers." And Roberts adds, "Cash soybeans are steady to stronger. It might be a good idea to get all old crop beans sold and price up to 25% of the '09 crop."
• A 50/50 chance. That's what Iowa State Meteorologist Elwynn Taylor is giving for La Nina-derived weather problems in 2009. He says the current event shows signs of weakening, but there is no clear trend, which usually is apparent by mid-March to mid-April. So he says the chance of a neutral versus La Nina condition by June is 50/50.
• What does a La Nina mean? Elwynn Taylor says the trend line corn yield for 2009 is 153.4 bushels per acre, with a Dec futures value of $4.53 at harvest. He says the historical response to the La Nina would give a 144 bu. yield with a Dec harvest value of $5.45. If La Nina shifts to neutral, he expects 155 bu. and a Dec futures price of $4.37.
• USDA's Risk Management Agency earlier this week certified the spring guarantees for revenue-based crop insurance such as Revenue Assurance (RA) and Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC). The spring guarantees are $4.04 for corn and $8.80 for soybeans. The sign-up deadline is March 16 for spring planted row crops in the Cornbelt, for anyone signing up for the first time or making substantial changes in a crop insurance program.
• Some of the variables remain unknown for the ACRE program, including your farm's performance and the final tally for state average prices from the current marketing year. However, IL Extension economist Nick Paulson has estimated Illinois guarantees:
  1) For corn the yield component will be roughly 164 bu/acre and the price component is projected about $4.05 per bushel, implying a state-level revenue guarantee of $600/A.
  2) Similarly, the current projections for the revenue guarantees for soybean and wheat acres for 2009 are approximately $400 and $345 per acre, respectively.
• Evaluating several thousand farm records, Paulson estimates ACRE would have been triggered in 10 of the past 31 years for IL corn with average payments of $53. Payments averaging $37 would have been made on IL soybeans in 5 of the last 31 years. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo09_04/fefo09_04.html .
• Choosing ACRE requires awareness. Paulson says, "If farm yields tend to closely follow the (state) average, the farm trigger criteria will have a greater chance of being met in years when ACRE payments are triggered. The timing of payments should be considered. Because of the definition of the price component used by the ACRE program, the revenue guarantee will not be completely established prior to expected sign-up periods in the spring and the actual revenue measure used to determine ACRE payments in a given year will not be finalized until just before harvest of the following crop year."
• Supplemental Revenue Assistance, the permanent disaster aid program known as SURE, has been reopened for 2008 crop problems until May 18 at FSA offices. SURE required producers to have purchased crop insurance for all insurable crops that accounted for 5% or more of their expected gross value of crop production in 2008. The chance to pay a $100 per crop fee has been extended, but the coverage limit is 70% of the proven yield. Producers who enroll to make a 2008 claim must also enroll for 2009.
• SURE payments, if a disaster is triggered, are bolstered by a crop insurance policy, says Ohio State Extension's Chris Bruynis, "If a farmer chooses not to purchase crop insurance, they cannot participate in SURE. Essentially the SURE revenue guarantee will be 115% of the crop insurance coverage level plus 120% of the NAP coverage levels. If a 75% coverage level is purchased the SURE revenue guarantee will be approximately 86%. The SURE revenue guarantee is capped at 90% of expected crop revenue."
• With a wet fall and a possible wet spring, are you considering a switch to no-till to save time on field preparation? Iowa State agronomists suggest several considerations: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2009/0302alkahsi.htm
  1) Check internal field drainage for ponds, plugged tiles, and plugged inlets.
  2) Soil temperature is critical and strip tillage is one way to warm, but conserve soil.
  3) Poor plant performance could reflect moisture or compaction problems below the seed.
  4) N, P, & K needs are the same in no-till, but P & K mineralization is slower.
  5) No-till does not change the economic returns for corn following soybeans.
• Beware of problems that could spell danger on some newer anhydrous ammonia applicators. Iowa State ag engineer Mark Hanna says high N prices have lead to flow controllers that can shut off individual knives. But he says it traps pressurized ammonia at locations in the system, requiring the entire applicator to be bled before servicing. More: http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2002/4-8-2002/planters.html
• Have all your decisions been made for your 2009 corn and soybean crops? What about:
  1) Corn or beans? http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a1-80.html .
  2) Are your soil fertility decisions made? http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/soilfertility/
  3) Row width? http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/corn/production/management/planting/row.html
  4) Seeding rate? http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/corn/production/management/planting/
  5) Planter maintenance? http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2002/4-8-2002/planters.html
• It is too early to tell how the wheat crop survived the winter, says Ohio State University agronomist Pierce Paul, "March is always a very stressful time for wheat due to the rapid changes in air temperatures, potential for heaving, and flooding. However, what we've seen thus far is that the wheat seems to be coming out of winter in pretty good shape and that's largely because we had a good planting season and good snow cover."
• What about N for wheat? OSU agronomists say, "In general, if 20-30 pounds of nitrogen was applied at planting, wait until May 1 for more and don't waste application money or risk loss of early N. Applications of 28% should be made with large flood jets and just enough pressure to produce a good application pattern, which produces a reduced number of very large droplets and reduced leaf burn. Stream bars for 28% application will also greatly reduce crop damage. Urea application rarely causes leaf burn."
• If the winter was cold in your part of the Cornbelt, that reduces the chances of survival of flea beetles which spread Stewart's Wilt to corn seedlings. Regardless of how cold you got, OSU crop specialists are happy, "Because of a relatively cold January, much colder than normal, the index values are lower than we often see." Risks may be low.
• Grow it for silage and biomass, but not for grain yield. That is the low down on a new corn hybrid from IL plant geneticist Stephen Moose who says his work with the Glossy 15 gene shows the plant will get bigger at the end of the season, with more sugar in the stalks and fewer kernels on the cob. That means it is good for cellulosic ethanol plants.
• Pork demand is up says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes, "Surprising as it may seem to be our demand index for November 2008 through January 2009 shows about a 2% increase in pork demand and above a 1% increase in live hog demand. There appears to be a cycle in pork demand and the rate of decline in demand was decreasing through fall. Certainly, 3 months is not a long enough period to project a trend; but with the weak general economy, we will take stronger demand for any length of time we can get it."
• Pork producers can get on the "green" bandwagon with a spray of soybean oil inside their hog barns. Purdue researchers found it decreases methane emissions by 20%, and carbon dioxide by 19%, both of which are greenhouse gases. There was also a 65% drop in dust in the air. The researchers say cost issues and clean-up need to be resolved yet.

All final versions of the 2009 iFarm and FAST Crop Insurance Tools are available at:

http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/index.asp.

The final versions of the 2009 tools have been updated with the following values for areas with sales closing dates of March 16, 2009.

Final Values for Corn are:

APH indemnity price = $4.00

CRC base price = $4.04

RA base price = $4.04

GRIP base price = $4.04

CRC price factors = 0.944

RA price volatility = 0.370

GRIP price volatility = 0.340

Final Values for Soybeans are:

APH indemnity price = $9.90

CRC base price = $8.80

RA base price = $8.80

GRIP base price = $8.80

CRC price factors = 1.754

RA price volatility = 0.310

GRIP price volatility = 0.310

No doubt there are far fewer acres of wheat this year than we've had for a number of years. Complications of wet soil and the late harvest limited the number of acres sown last fall. Because of the late planting, many of the wheat acres were somewhat under developed entering dormancy when compared to normal. There just wasn't enough time between sowing and fall dormancy to get good growth. Hopefully, producers sowed at a heavier rate last fall to compensate for reduced tillering. As each tiller can produce a spike (head), increased tillers lead to increased yield.

Spring weather can also influence tillering. Since wheat is a cool season crop, a sunny and cool early spring can favor tiller development. Nitrogen can also influence tillering. Late winter nitrogen applications on thin stands may increase tillers. Take some stand counts. As a rule of thumb, 70 tillers per square foot is considered adequate for optimal yield.

The U of I has adopted some new nitrogen recommendations for wheat. These are based upon soil organic matter, nitrogen price and wheat price. The first step is to determine the amount of nitrogen a bushel of wheat will "buy". For instance, with urea priced at $400 per ton, the cost per unit of N is about 45 cents per pound. With wheat selling for $4.50 (July cash bid), one bushel of wheat would buy 10 pounds of nitrogen.

Then determine the organic matter level of the soil in which the wheat is growing. Higher soil OM levels can allow you to reduce your N application rates, as the soil will provide nitrogen through mineralization. Based upon the above economic scenario, the recommended N rates for various soil OM levels are as follows:

Soil OM of less than 2%- 120-150 pounds nitrogen

Soil OM of 2-4%- 80-100 pounds of nitrogen

Soil OM of greater than 4%- 50-70 pounds of nitrogen

Care should be taken if applying 120 or more pounds of nitrogen to ensure that overlap doesn't occur. And if attempting to interseed clover, you'll need to reduce the N rate by 25% or so.

• Is the convergence issue solved? IL Extension's Darrel Good says it was a problem in 2007 & 2008 when futures and cash prices would not come together at delivery markets. He says the basis is currently strong and March futures appear to be converging. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/022309.html .
• Good says the year over year change in convergence has been dramatic for soybeans, and corn seems to be back on track. He attributes the strong basis levels this year to:
  1) Lower price levels reducing the cost of owning, hauling, and storing crops.
  2) A rapid pace of soybean exports while farmers held grain declining in value.
  3) Improved profits for grain merchandisers, as the financial pressure of buying and storing high-priced crops and meeting margin calls on short hedge positions has subsided.
• For unpriced soybeans, Good says the old crop basis is stronger, but there is little to gain in storing until July. With interest at 4¢ per month, he says storage costs will not be covered. Good suggests any market speculation should be done with futures or basis contracts, but the economy and the South American crop make that a stretch.
• For unpriced corn, Good says there is more carry in the market and a return to storage. But farmers are holding corn and if 2009 acreage is high the basis will weaken. The new crop basis remains weak, discouraging new crop sales. With prices below the crop insurance guarantee, aggressive pricing of new crop corn and beans is discouraged.
• There are bullish fundamentals in the grain market, but Kansas State's Mike Woolverton says they continued to be overshadowed by other economic reports. He says the greatest uncertainty is the demand, because the global economic squeeze is forcing consumers to change food consumption patterns, including eating less pork and beef. Read more: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Woolverton says the ills can be cured with "stabilization of the global financial situation, resumption of speculative investment in commodities, a return to economic growth that will give consumers more money to spend, and a return to the food consumption patterns developed in the years before the economic difficulties. But he says, when that will occur is very difficult to determine, and history is of no help.
• Farmers with corn near ethanol plants may be able to benefit from those with a positive basis, says Michigan St. specialist Jim Hilker. He says deliver now and use a basis contract or a call option if you want to stay in the market. Hilker says, "In some parts of the country, ethanol plants are offering subsidized calls, check it out."
• The market expects higher soybean yields, says Hilker; "But it is also saying we will plant quite a few more soybean acres. Given the variable costs of corn versus soybeans, if your search around pretty hard to get the deals, the relative prices and yields, and the results suggest corn will have a higher return per acre, but just by a little. And this will vary as the market's opinion of what acres will be planted changes with new information and the relative prices fluctuate." More: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• Regarding wheat, Hilker says, "The market doesn't want your wheat, and doesn't want to pay you to store it. While new crop bids are higher than old crop, it is not by enough to store it commercially. With respect to new crop, just wait on any forward pricing." He says the wheat market has disapproved of the CBOT's additional delivery points and increased storage rates, since convergence of cash and futures has still not happened.
• Jim Hilker's analysis of ethanol reports, "When wholesale gas prices were near their peak of $3.60, wholesale ethanol prices were up to 70 cents lower, but still pulled corn prices to record levels. As gas prices fell to near present levels in early October, ethanol prices climbed over gas prices tempering the corn price drop. Corn/ethanol now appears to again be moving with oil/gas prices, but at near the 45 cents blender credit above gas."
• Biofuel profits may depend on the quality of your pond scum in the future. Algae will be a credible source of biomass to produce biodiesel and ethanol says IL ag engineer Lance Schideman, who gets 45-75 gal. of biodiesel and 300-500 gal. of ethanol per acre of algae. He says under the right conditions, the future may produce 10,000 gal. per acre.
• Algae can be processed with thermo-chemical conversion. TCC speeds up the process that squeezed swamps and dinosaurs into oil deposits and what the ag engineers have used to convert hog manure into crude oil. Schideman says algae can be produced on wastewater, and it will grow on nutrients that would otherwise wash from a watershed.
• Concerns are being expressed about the lack of infrastructure for timely application of fertilizer that should have been applied last fall, but due to the season, delayed it to this spring. Will there be enough toolbars, nurse tanks, and floaters available to cover the required acreage? If not, side-dressing nitrogen may be the most efficient alternative.
• Make your fertilizer dollar go as far as possible by calculating your economic return to nitrogen. You can pencil it out using nitrogen prices versus the price of corn forward contracted, or consult: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx .
• Iowa topsoil is as deep as ever, but it is deteriorating in quality. Iowa St. researchers went to 89 locations evaluated in the 1950's to assess changes, and found the soil tightly packed and less capable of allowing water and air to move through it. They compared the soil particles to a cupful of dice, when it should be a cupful of marbles as it was 50 years ago. The reason for the change was attributed to tillage making it more dense.
• Indiana farmers are being advised by spray specialists about a growing suburban practice that could become an issue for farmers with sprayers. That is the potential for spray to hit non-target vegetation. In addition to crops like vegetables, grapes and greenhouses, a new structure is a high tunnel, which is used to cultivate crops outdoors as early as February. That means plants will be growing in them when burndown chemicals are applied and any spray drifting over to housing developments will be a liability suit.
• The Cattle on Feed report indicated a 6% drop in head from a year ago, but placements were up 4%, and lightweight calves going on feed were up 8%. That was attributed to calves being pulled off wheat pasture early because of the lack of moisture for wheat.
• 2008 pork exports were 49% higher than in 2007, and consumed over 16% of production. MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says exports to China were up 140%, Japan up 15%, South Korea up 12%, Russia up 76%, and Taiwan was up 71%. But USDA believes pork exports in 2009 will be down 15% compared to 2008.
• Domestic pork profitability depends on the size of the herd, and Glenn Grimes says current farrowing intentions are down only 3.4%, with April-June down only 2.6%. He says with increases in litter size and a weak consumer demand, more reduction is needed.
• 2008 beef exports were up nearly 32% compared to 2007 and imports were down 17%, says Grimes. Mexico imported 11% more, Japan was up 45%, Canada up 15%, South Korea up 95% and Taiwan was up 21%. USDA believes 2009 beef exports will drop.
• If you want to save on fuel, follow some recommendations from Kansas State:
  1) Avoid unnecessary driving and handle the task with a phone call, not a trip.
  2) Match the vehicle to the task, and take the car to get parts and not the pick up.
  3) Clean the junk out of a vehicle, which adds weight and decreases fuel mileage.
  4) Maintain engines, since clogged filters and injectors rob power and efficiency.
  5) Check tire pressure since under or over inflation increases rolling resistance.
  6) Reduce tillage, since fewer tractor passes through a field means less fuel use.
  7) Match the tractor to the task, and not use a field tractor for a utility tractor's job.
  8) Check tractor ballast, since tires will slip and use more fuel than necessary.
  9) Gear up and throttle back, since ¾ power saves 5-15% fuel use over full throttle.
  10) Avoid engine idling, since unnecessary idling accounts for 15-20% of fuel use.
  11) Paint fuel tanks white, since dark ones heat up and can vent out evaporated fuel.
• It may seem like an oxymoron, but if you want to add value to corn stover, shred the stalks instead of chopping them. Purdue ag engineer Dennis Buckmaster says shredded stalks need 40% less energy to convert into ethanol, than do chopped stalks. Shredding increases the surface area of the biomass and then produces 11% more cellulose products.
• The $787 billion stimulus package will not have a check in the mail for agriculture says NE economist Tina Barrett, but employees receiving paychecks will get an extra $400 from an adjustment in their withholding spread out through the year. Farmers unable to obtain the benefit because of the lack of a paycheck or through quarterly estimates, will receive a $400 credit when paying 2009 income taxes, according to Barrett.

• Corn and soybean prices will be driven by acreage this spring believes IL Extension's Darrel Good, but he says acreage uncertainty stems from questions about profitability, cost of production, and declines in winter wheat and cotton acreage. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/021609.html .
• Darrel Good says biofuels will play a role in determining the need for corn acreage, but sorghum is replacing corn as a feedstock in some ethanol plants in the Southern and Central Plains states. He says the federal biofuel mandate calls for 10.5 bil. gal. in 2009 and 12.0 bil. gal. in 2010, but marketing years don't line up and the use of sorghum puts a new twist into the analysis of how much corn acreage is required for ethanol refining.
• Overall, ethanol's thirst for corn will be large, with at least 3.6 bil. bu. this year, 4.0 bil. bu. next year and up to 5 bil. bu. by the 2015 marketing year. Good thinks 2009 planted corn acreage needs to parallel 2008, but bean acres may not need to expand. However, he expects the Mar. 31 Prospective Plantings to predict more soybeans.
• Despite periodic positive news, the grain markets have regularly been rewarded with losses every day says South Dakota Extension marketing specialist Alan May. "What is at play here is the heavy pressure of outside markets; particularly crude oil, the dollar index market and the stock market. As these markets continue to either weaken or simply remain stagnant, grain commodities ignored the positive news of stronger corn export sales and expectations of greater export volume of soybeans."
• Brace yourself for a weekly storm, advises OSU meteorologist Jim Noel, because we are in a weather pattern that is typical for this time of year. He says weak La Nina conditions are getting weaker and should be gone by spring. But he says all of the ice on the Great Lakes makes for a cooler and wetter spring in the Eastern Cornbelt.
• Farm program eligibility depends on your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) and Adjusted Gross Farm Income (AGFI), so compute it carefully says Iowa St. ag law specialist Roger McEowen who provides a factsheet at: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/agi.html .
  1) A non-farm AGI cannot exceed $500,000 to receive farm program payments.
  2) An AGFI cannot exceed $750,000 to receive direct and counter cyclical payments.
  3) An AGI cannot exceed $1 mil. to get conservation payments unless 2/3 is farming.
  4) The average for the AGI for 2009 is the average for tax years 2005, 2006, & 2007.
  5) AGFI is net farm income, plus sale of capital goods, rentals, and royalties.
  6) AGI and AGFI are reported to FSA on Form CCC-926 and page 3 gives guidance.
  7) AGFI is a "net income" concept, not a producer's gross farm revenue.
• Caution is being advised by TN Extension economist Daryll Ray if farmers are considering the USDA's ACRE program. He's not convinced of its benefits, and says:
  1) The 2009 price guarantee is the average of 2007 & 2008 prices, but 2008 is unknown.
  2) Are farm and state-level yields used in revenue estimates really attainable?
  3) Signing up for ACRE requires proof of income, so farmers will surrender their 1040.
  4) Converting to ACRE irrevocably through 2012 is another headache.
  5) Obtain the paperwork and study it well before the June 1 deadline for signing up.
  6) Get legal help in defining "active involvement" is your farm is a partnership.
  7) Assemble your records in one place to document yields and acreages.
  8) Calculate worst-case and other scenarios for your farm using your own data.
  9) Your calculations should include the low end of USDA's estimated price range.
  10) Base your decisions on your own farm, not on the estimates of other farms.
  11) Obtain opinions from your CPA and banker about their perception of risks.
• Is there an advantage to leasing farm equipment? NE Extension's Tim Lemmons says among the advantages: lower up-front, down payment costs compared to purchasing; payments often are less than traditional loan payments; less liability on the balance sheet; equipment available for short-term needs; access to and use of latest technology; and lease payments are considered production expenses for tax purposes.
• Is there an advantage to buying farm equipment? Nebraska's Tim Lemmons suggests: owned equipment may be easily replaced or sold at the owner's discretion while replacing leased equipment may be more difficult; owned equipment has asset value and may be used as collateral against other loans; purchases do not require security deposits, although down payments to secure financing may be higher; purchased equipment has no use limitations while some leases specify the number of hours a machine may be used before a penalty is imposed; and increased asset value on the balance sheet.
• Increases of soybean seed price of 25%-100%+ may push some farmers to plant bin-run seed, but WI soybean specialist Shawn Conley says 90% of soybeans are glyphosate tolerant and federal patent laws prohibit that. He expects an increase of field monitoring this year to "catch" growers who recycle their soybeans into the planter box.
• Soybeans that are not herbicide tolerant fall under the Plant Variety Protection Act says Conley, and while that allows seed to be saved for planting, it restricts the amount of seed that someone can save to an amount that would serve the needs of his own farm. More: http://ipcm.wisc.edu/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=PfWKCfvYUf4%3d&tabid=114&mid=669 .
• But planting bin-run seed can create agronomic issues, and if the seed was not harvested with the intent of being seed the following year, there will likely be quality issues related to harvest timing, storage conditions, and handling says Conley. He says if you are planting bin-run seed, have it custom cleaned or conditioned, including the application of seed treatments and inoculants, if the law allows for that seed variety.
• Adverse winter weather can have an adverse impact on young livestock says Extension veterinarian Russ Daly, particularly problems that may not show up for some time after cold spells and blizzards. He warns of frostbite, pneumonia, and several viruses that can incubate for several days then be aggravated by other stressors such as weaning and transporting. He suggests consultation with local veterinarians to diagnose problems.
• The sagging global demand for beef may be out of the hands of the beef industry to control according to a study by Kansas St. and Michigan St. livestock economists.
  1) While price is important, small price adjustments have minimal impact on consumers.
  2) Recent food safety recalls adversely affect domestic and foreign demand by 2.6%.
  3) Consumer influence by health articles linking fat and heart disease cut demand by 9%.
  4) The media frenzy about low carbohydrate diets boosted beef demand by 2%.
  5) Convenience of preparation benefits poultry and pork, but hurts beef demand.
• So, what should the beef industry do to bolster demand? Researchers decided:
  1) Conduct research that identifies positive impacts from consumption of beef.
  2) Present those findings to health professionals, nutritionists, and consumers.
  3) Develop production or processing techniques to enhance beef nutritional qualities.
• Is the US beef herd overestimated? That is possible say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, who say if that is correct, there is no further need to reduce the cow herd further. They say those who doubt USDA numbers believe the cut in the cow herd has been covered up by the speedup in marketings of steers and heifers by putting them on the market earlier, even though they had reached market weight. But Grimes and Plain side with USDA's statistics and the benchmark 2007 Ag Census.
• It is too early now, but it may be time to order legume seed for bolstering pasture vitality with the help of frost seeding. The seed depends on freezing and thawing for soil incorporation along with later winter moisture. IL crop specialist Jim Morrison says medium red clover provides the best success but requires inoculation and proper pH.
• Taking a soil test will allow you to make educated decisions on your farm rather than adding fertilizer that is not needed, particularly on pastures, says KY forage specialist Ray Smith. In pastures approximately 80% of the nutrients consumed in the forage are returned to the pasture in the manure and urine. Therefore, fertilizer requirements on pasture are lower than for hayfields, but this is only true in well-managed rotationally grazed pastures where manure and urine are equally distributed throughout the pasture.
• Has your poly tank failed and created a catastrophe? They are versatile and tough, but failure is a potential, so inspection and maintenance need to be part of your routine in using them. Get poly advice at: http://www.btny.purdue.edu/Pubs/PPP/PPP-77.pdf .
• Have you lost a poly tank while traveling down the roadway? Securing a poly tank is not hard, but must be done correctly because lost cargo is not easy to reload on a truck or trailer. There are governmental requirements for securing loads, including poly tanks. Get the proper techniques at: http://www.btny.purdue.edu/Pubs/PPP/PPP-75.pdf .

• The South American soybean crop has deteriorated from dry weather says IL Extension marketing specialist Darrel Good and the result will be cuts in exports and ending stocks. Argentine production will be down 150 to 200 mil. bu. from January, and Brazilian beans will be down 75 mil. bu., but without much impact on expected export business. In the meantime, he says US soybean exports have been strong, helped by Chinese demand.
• Argentine corn production, most of which is exported, will be reduced from 590 mil. bu. last year to 355 mil. bu. this year. Brazilian corn production is expected to be 15% down from the 2 bil. bu. crop last year. US corn exports have picked up slightly, but Darrel Good says shipments lag behind the pace needed to reach USDA projections. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/020909.html .
• USDA's February Crop Report held few changes, says Kansas State specialist Mike Woolverton. Despite trade expectations for adjustments in the corn balance sheet, USDA left the January numbers in place. Woolverton speculates that the lack of change in ethanol demand reflects USDA's thinking that better times are ahead for ethanol refiners.
• The strength in soybean exports helped USDA push soybean carryover down to 210 mil. bu. at the end of the current marketing year. Woolverton says USDA might have dropped the carryout to 205 if the domestic crush had been more robust. The lower ending stocks pushed upward the USDA price range to $8.75 to $9.75 per bushel. Read more at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Kansas State's Woolverton says planting decision time is near, but wet fields in the Eastern Cornbelt may delay fieldwork, giving producers more time to decide. He says the world weather impact may cause some price bullishness that may offer good selling opportunities, but the harvest soybean to corn price ratio is at 2.23, under the long term ratio of 2.3. The next report on March 11 may give more guidance for decision making.
• The La Nina weather pattern is still waffling says meteorologist Elwynn Taylor at Iowa State, who advises that it needs to be watched closely because we are nearing the end of the cycle that could bring a drought. He's not predicting one, but says 23 years is the record long gap between major droughts and 23 years after 1988 is 2012.
• Elwynn Taylor also advises farmers to watch the weather maps for precipitation in Arkansas beginning February 15. He says if the next 45 days are wet, there is an 80% chance at lease that the planting season will be wet. But he says if Arkansas is dry for the next month and a half, the chance for a dry planting season is also at least 80%.
• Climate extremes are often blamed on global warming says KY soybean specialist D.B. Egli, but he says every farmer knows there is a lot of variation in the weather, and he wondered if global warming will affect corn and soybean yields this year. His weather station at Henderson, KY, indicated summer rainfall in the past 31 years ranged from 5 in. to 15 in. and high temperatures ranged from 94 degrees in 1980 to 84 degrees in 2004. He says the 31 years of records don't show any evidence of warmer, wetter, or drier.
• Is your corn still in good condition? Iowa State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh asks because last fall's soft, wet corn has only half the storage life as normal #2 corn. Elevators and farmers who stored 24% moisture corn, but kept it below 30F with aeration, should have good quality corn. But he says unaerated bins and piles may be spoiled. He says the active period for grain spoilage begins in mid to late February.
• Hurburgh says corn over 17% which cannot be maintained below 30F has to be dried or sold because it will spoil rapidly. And he says ethanol plants will reject mold damage, as should livestock feeders because of the potential for mycotoxins. He says the bottom line is act now to check the quality, and either dry the crop or move it out of storage.
• Crop insurance premiums and indemnities reached record highs last year and could be duplicated this year says Iowa State economist William Edwards. He says calculate your needs carefully because high input prices and lower indemnity prices means you will have to choose a higher percentage level of coverage to protect production costs.
• The Biotech Yield Endorsement which had limited availability in 2008 has been extended to other Cornbelt states, and not only covers YieldGard, but also Herculex and Agrisure genetics. Discounts averaged 13% or $3 last year if 75% of your insurance unit was planted to eligible hybrids. However county-level GRIP and GRP is not eligible.
• USDA subsidies have been changed for some crop insurance policies which may cause you to adjust your decisions on coverage. William Edwards at Iowa State says whole farm and enterprise units used to have lower premiums than basic and optional units. For 2009 they will have the same dollar value subsidy, which will be 55% for basic units, 77% for enterprise units, and 80% for whole farm units when selecting 75% coverage.
• Hog producers who have balanced their books are finding they averaged $47.85 per cwt in 2008, according to an IL Extension study of hundreds of farm records. Economist Dale Lattz said feed costs averaged about $38.75 per cwt, and non feed costs were $19.70, with total costs of production at $58.45. He is expecting production costs to drop during 2009, and says breakeven prices may be seen, depending on corn and bean prices.
• If you are cutting back on pork production, MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says keep going. With pork demand down 3.5% last year, the weaker demand and high feed prices means the hog herd needs to be reduced more than it has been. Grimes says there is a need to cut the breeding herd at least 5% and maybe 10% if demand remains weak.
• Milk prices are in the tank and IL Extension's Mike Hutjens says the reason is the recession here and abroad, the strong dollar, fewer meals eaten away from home and a decline in dairy exports. Compared to the $19 per cwt last November, Hutjens says the price of raw milk by the end of February will probably be in the neighborhood of $13.
• Dairy managers should consider several strategies says Hutjens, including the use of by-product feeds to cut feed costs by 9 cents per pound, maintain milk yield, increase quality premiums, and sign up for the MILC program to get $1.20-$1.50 more per cwt.
• A soybean fungicide application paid off 55% of the time in 2008 and 40% of the time in 2007 says IL Extension pathologist Carl Bradley. That is based on contracted price, and the increased yield needed to break even from the fungicide cost. Bradley says 2008 yields were –8 to +12 bu. compared to control plots, with the average at 2.6 bu./A.
• Bradley's guide for application indicates a higher risk for fungus when planting back to back bean crops, susceptibility of the soybean variety to frogeye leaf spot, increases in wet and humid weather, and when you are not monitoring for crop diseases.
• If your fields are typically wet like many in 2009, some nitrogen application research at Iowa State may be valuable. Using a wet research plot, Agronomist John Sawyer reports, "The fall timing resulted in a yield increase to the highest applied N rate (200 lb N/acre), but the spring/sidedress response had an economic optimum rate at 173 lb N/acre. With the wet spring/early summer conditions, the fall application was apparently more at risk of loss than the spring application. However, due to loss of soil-derived nitrate with the wet conditions, the overall N fertilization requirement was also increased."
• Killing weeds under 4" should be your goal if you want to maximize corn yield, says WI weed scientist Chris Boerboom, but he adds, that does not seem to be happening. He says a 2008 survey found over 75% of fields receiving glyphosate had an average weed height of 6", which meant some weeds were well over that height, and cutting yield.
• Research on corn yield loss from weeds, indicates weeds more than 6" when sprayed have already eaten 6.5% of your corn yield. Boerboom bases that calculation on 150 bu. corn at a $4 price, which he says means a loss of $39 in profits. Read his newsletter: http://ipcm.wisc.edu/WCMNews/tabid/53/EntryId/668/Defeating-Weeds-in-Corn.aspx

During the past few years, producers have seen seed costs rise to record levels. Last summer's record crop prices no doubt led seed companies to believe producer incomes would allow these higher prices. However we've seen corn prices retreat almost 50% from those summer highs. And incomes based upon these lower prices just don't allow for much in the way of input price increases. Consequentially, we've seen a retreat of seed prices in many instances.

Producers are investigating any and all ways in which to improve efficiencies. And seeding rates are one of those concerns. In the Midwest over the past few years, there have been several studies to examine soybean seeding rates. And they've all led to the same conclusion- most producers overplant soybean seed, some by a great deal.

Eric Adee, at the U of I Monmouth Research Center ran a soybean seeding rate study for 3 years. He determined economic seeding rates based upon yield, soybean seed price and soybean selling price. These were seeding in 15" rows, using a pre-emerge herbicide, followed by one application of glyphosate (the key here is use of a pre-emerge herbicide to keep weed populations low). Stand counts ranged from 75,000-145,000 plants per acre, but yields only varied by 4 bushels/acre. These results are not much different than many other studies.

So, figuring economic seeding rates based upon seed cost and price received is a simple calculation. Using a seed cost of $40 per 150K seeds and a selling price of $9, the optimal final stand would be 114K plants. At a seed cost of $50 and selling price of $8, the optimal final stand would be 102K.

These are final stands, not seeding rates. You'll need to compensate for those seeds that don't germinate. You'll also need to use a pre-emerge herbicide (you should anyway to reduce weed resistance) to allow maximum yields by keeping weeds to a minimum in these stands.

Many people are anxiously awaiting county yield estimates from the Crop Reporting Service. Traditionally those yields have been published around the middle of February; however, this year they are not slated until March 2.

Indications are yields will be good with district yields already compiled. The 2008 state averages are 179 for corn and 46 for soybeans. The central crop reporting district is slated at 195 for corn and 51 for soybeans. My suspicions are (read this "best guess") Logan County will surpass the district averages. We'll look forward to the release of the county numbers in about three weeks.

• Ethanol throttled the 2007& 2008 corn market, now it put on the brakes. Marketing specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State says that is because of the shutdown in several ethanol plants. But the industry is still growing, and he says it should have exceeded 9 bil. gal. last year. He says the federal mandate is for 10.5 bil. gal. of ethanol this year. One industry leader recently estimated 2.7 bil. gal. of capacity is currently idled.
• Corn exports will fall 661 mil. bu. behind the export levels of last year and beans will fall 61 mil. Iowa State's Hart says the value of the dollar continues to be a problem for US exports. He says it will strengthen against most major currencies, except those of Japan and China, which are currently the top corn and bean export markets. More: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo020109.pdf
• Argentina is suffering the worst drought in the past 50 years, estimates Mike Woolverton at Kansas St., who says its government has estimated production with a 50% loss, and curtailed all wheat exports. He says the drought has cut 43% of soybean production in Paraguay, and reduced soybean yields 10% in southern Brazil.
• Woolverton says the Argentine drought and farmers' strike should show up in USDA's February 10 world supply and demand report. He says market speculators have begun building long positions as a result of the issues, and US farmers with stored crops may be major beneficiaries of the South American drought and political issues.
• US soybeans will be helped, since this is the time of year that global buyers turn to South America for soybeans, but the supply will be short and price will have to ration the supply, says Woolverton, adding that will become a dynamic in the acreage decision this year, but a soft demand from the recession will prevent any wild price moves.
• Focus on the demand, says Alan May at South Dakota State. "Consumption will continue. Demand has, and will likely continue to be, the key component in price direction. People still need food, livestock still need to be fed, and the ethanol industry will still need to buy corn to meet the demand for ethanol. The issue is the performance of demand in the months ahead and the corresponding production we will have in 2009." He says prepare to make sales when the opportunity arises and control input costs. Read Alan May's grain newsletters at: http://econ.sdstate.edu/Extension/CMA.htm .
• A weaker economy still wreaks havoc on fundamentals, says Mike Roberts at VA Tech.
  1) Any corn strength is limited by bearish speculators. He's pricing up to 30% new crop.
  2) Funds are adding to net bull soybean positions. He's pricing up to 40% of new crop.
  3) Funds have reduced net bear wheat positions. He's pricing up to 15% of the new crop.
• If you are uncertain about ACRE, IL Extension's Gary Schnitkey says the 30% cut in loan rates may be a moot point, since, "It is unlikely that prices will fall below national loan rates between now and the end of the Farm Bill in 2012. Hence, the chance of receiving LDPs is low under both the traditional and ACRE alternatives."
• If you are uncertain about ACRE, which will cut Counter-Cyclical payments by 20% for those signing up, Schnitkey says, "Trigger prices in 2009 are $2.35 for corn, $5.36 for soybeans, and $3.40 for wheat. The chances of receiving counter-cyclical payments are low because it is unlikely that commodity prices will average below trigger prices."
• If you are uncertain about ACRE, Schnitkey says, "ACRE will pay for corn in 32% of the years and average $17 per planted acre. For soybeans, ACRE will pay in 16% of the years and average $6.50 per planted acre. These average payments will vary across farms based on the farm's average yield relative to the state's average yield." Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/announcements/agrinews/Jan_2009/agrinews_Jan_2009.html .
• The national cattle inventory is 1.6% under January of 2008, with beef cows down substantially, lighter heifer retention, but a slight rise in the dairy herd. The national herd is 31.7 million, the least since 1963, and with heifer retention down 2%, the herd will continue to decline into next year says Iowa State livestock economist Shane Ellis.
• Shane Ellis says cattle feeders have started to push back on prices they are willing to pay to regain profitability. "Compounded by lower feeder cattle prices, there will continue to incentive for producers to reducer their herds to exit the business." Read his newsletter at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo020109.pdf
• Cattle numbers are down, yes, but Purdue's Chris Hurt says be patient on prices. "The USDA (Cattle on Feed) report will increase cattle prices in the short-run, but more central to a price turn around will be the perceived progress of the general economy. On that front, consumers are not likely to feel better about their budgets for several more months as unemployment continues to rise into the spring and summer."
• Hurt does not give much hope for a rapid recovery. "The improvement in the economy is still months away, and may well be late 2009 and 2010. This leaves the possibility that finished cattle prices only return to the mid-to higher $80s this spring with mid-$80s this summer. If so, prices might not move back above $90 until very late in 2009 and early 2010. Read more: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/020209.html .
• Consumer demand for meat is weak, according to MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. They say 2008 pork demand was down 3.5%, beef demand was down 4.1% compared to 2007. Export-driven live hog demand is up 6%. They say consumer demand will remain weak in 2009, but fewer chicken supplies will help pork.
• Your New (crop) Year's resolution may need to be better weed control. IL Extension crop specialist Jim Morrison says herbicide resistant weeds need special attention:
  1) Regular field scouting can identify stands of weeds that just won't go away.
  2) Rotate herbicides, which work on different parts of weeds (site of action.)
  3) Combine mechanical weed control with herbicide applications.
  4) Clean tillage and harvest equipment regularly to prevent weed transfers.
• Weeds rob your nitrogen say Michigan St. specialists, who add that a 95% control can be achieved when weeds are 9 in. tall, but corn yields are cut by 25 bu. per acre. They say there is no yield loss when weeds are 4 in., but 12 in. weeds produce a 9% yield loss. In terms of nitrogen, the Maximum Return to Nitrogen (MRTN) rate was 96 lbs per acre when weeds were controlled at 4 inches, compared with an MRTN rate of 200 lbs per acre when weeds were controlled at 12 inches. Bigger weeds absorb more nitrogen.
• Your combine is too efficient and may not be leaving enough corn on the ground to sustain the cattle you turned out on the cornstalks. NE forage specialist Bruce Anderson says 4% of the corn was left in the field 10-15 years ago, but today it is about 1 lb. less grain per acre for every bushel harvested. He says cattle already need extra protein.
• OH corn yields were 5 bu. under trendline, but OSU agronomist Peter Thomison says they could have been worse. He says the wet spring and protracted dry spell hurt the crop, but he says if August had been blistering hot, which it was not, then corn yields would have been comparable to 2002 when the state average yield was a paltry 89 bu. Thomison also says Hurricane Ike clobbered corn stalks, causing widespread lodging.
• Does stacked trait corn yield better than non-GMO corn? Not really say Ohio St. agronomists, who note that 2/3 of the state last year was planted to transgenic corn and it is getting harder to get non-GMO corn. They say some farmers believe stacked traits are matched with high yield hybrids, but the agronomists say different genetic backgrounds respond differently to genes and there is no research indicating the stacking traits increase yield. Read their current C.O.R.N. newsletter at: http://corn.osu.edu/
• Your thoughts about the pros and cons of 2,4-D are being solicited by the US EPA which has been asked by the National Resources Defense Council to cancel the 2,4-D registration based on the fact the EPA cannot prove it does not harm anyone and human health effects were not all considered. Information about submitting comments is at: http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA-PEST/2008/December/Day-24/p30527.htm .
• "Question everything," say Michigan State fertility specialists in their latest newsletter, including the way you fertilize crops. They are strongly advocating soil tests, given the current prices. And they say if you take your own soil test, consider the soil compaction, and question if it may be limiting the crops ability to absorb water and nutrients.
• "The number of farms hit bottom, and is increasing slightly," says Greg Preston who heads up the NASS office in IN. He was describing the 2007 Ag Census released by USDA, which indicated the turnaround of a 60 year trend. With the ever-increasing age of farmers, Purdue's Kevin McNamara expects more land transitions in the future, including sales to other farmers, subdivisions of farms, and housing developments.

• Soybean exports continue to climb, says IL Extension's Darrel Good, and USDA is forecasting nearly as many shipments as last year, which would put sales at 1.1 bil bu. Good says the rapid pace of Chinese purchases has pushed totals 39% above 2008. He says to reach USDA estimates, shipments will not have to match last year's pace. Dry weather in Argentina has reduced its crop potential, reducing US export competition.
• Corn exports, says Darrel Good are at 617 mil. bu., which is 412 mil. behind 2008 at this date. That results from declining demand from major buyers, which may be buying corn in other global markets, and feeding low quality wheat from other nations. USDA's corn export forecast is for 1.75 bil. bu., but Good doubts the goal will be reached. Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/012609.html .
• Same stocks, but a new price level, says Extension Specialist Jim Hilker at Michigan State. "The bottom line is that expected 2008-09 ending stocks were put at 1.790 bil. bu., up 316 mil. from the Dec estimate. The 1.790 bil. is 15% of use, in the old days an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15% would have meant a $2.25 price. But the increase in inelastic ethanol demand, and a floor caused by the ethanol mandates, has changed the corn pricing model." Read more at: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• Wheat stocks are plentiful, says Jim Hilker at Michigan St. "With the projected ending stocks-to-use ratios for both 2008-09 and 2009-10, supplies are projected to be more than sufficient the next two years. However, while the projected US 2008-09 ending stocks of 655 mil. bu. are ample, and the 2008-09 projected world ending stocks are much improved from last year, projected 2008-09 world ending stocks are still relatively tight.
• Mike Roberts' market observations from VA Tech contain grain selling strategies:
  1) Lack of technical strength is a contributing factor keeping corn under $4.00/bu. Wait and see where these prices are headed before pricing any more of the 2009 corn crop.
  2) Forecasts for better weather in Argentina and producers did not seem to be turning loose of many beans. It might be a good idea to price binned soybeans on upticks.
  3) Argentinean government was reportedly blocking exports to protect food supplies amidst an ongoing drought. It would be good to hold off pricing any more wheat.
• Planting decisions should be based on market signals, says MO Extension specialist Melvin Brees. He recalls the 2007 January corn/soybean futures price ratio near 1.9/1, which favored corn. But the 2008 signal had a January soybean corn futures price ratio of 2.5/1 that favored soybean production. Corn acres grew in '07 and soybeans in '08. Read: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf .
• Brees says, On Jan 15 "March corn of $3.65 and beans $9.95 (put) the bean/corn price ratio near 2.7/1. When compared with the last two years, this appears to heavily favor soybeans. However, nearby (March '09) corn futures are discounted when compared with new crop (December '09) futures prices. This "carry in the market" suggests weak nearby demand and a market that is willing to pay more for corn next year."
• Brees says, "In contrast, the soybean market is inverted with nearby futures prices about 35 cents higher than new crop (November '09) futures prices. This signals stronger nearby demand for soybeans with less concern about next year's crop supplies. Comparing new crop corn futures price ($4.11) and soybean prices ($9.61) (Jan 15), the soybean/corn price ratio is about 2.3/1. For much of the Cornbelt, this price ratio is probably a neutral signal, unless corn production costs are especially high."
• Brees leaves some final words of wisdom. "(For either corn or soybeans), profits are likely to be harder to come by in 2009 than they were in 2008 and wishful thinking should be avoided in setting price goals. During an uncertain economic climate, capturing potential profits when they are offered may be important.
• Fertilizer prices are stabilizing, but vary widely at dealers and farm supply companies according to Purdue economist Bruce Erickson, who says the US demand is at the mercy of whatever happens in other parts of the world. He says 47 % of the N and 45% of the K needed for use in the spring of 2009 came into the US during the period of lower prices.
• Fertilizer delivery could be a problem, since less than the usual amount was applied in the fall, and more will have to be transferred into retail dealerships, which may have problems getting timely deliveries this spring. That is the thought of Purdue's Erickson, who says the delivery network will be strained with a high demand for spring fertilizer.
• Fertilizer pricing depends on the dynamics in the price of corn between now and planting time says Purdue economist Alan Miller, who adds that nitrogen prices have returned to levels that would bring natural gas prices into play again. He says natural gas prices have been relatively low, but if they increase, so does the cost of nitrogen. Read more at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/news/financial/Fertilizer_Market.pdf .
• Urea and UAN prices have declined slightly to become more competitive with anhydrous ammonia, causing some farmers to question the value of one over the other. Purdue agronomist Jim Camberato says urea can be applied faster than ammonia, but is typically not as good a source of N. He says Urea is often inferior to UAN when surface-applied, but equivalent or slightly better than UAN when incorporated into the soil. Read his fact sheet at: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.09/Urea-0126.pdf .
• Cut your production costs with help from audio, video, and fact sheet resources provided by NE Extension at: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/survivinghighinputcosts.htm . The frequently updated website offers efficiency improvements on cropping systems, machinery management, production management, irrigation, pest control, fertility, and harvest and storage issues. The site also features production budgets for 11 crops.
• Mark your calendar. USDA's deadline is February 27 to sign up for any financial assistance from various crop disasters between 2005 and 2007. Producers with crop or pasture damage must complete an FSA-840 application at local FSA offices.
• With a 35% drop in dairy prices, dairymen are urged by OSU dairy economist Cameron Thraen to sign up for the Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program begun in the 2002 Farm Bill. He says the record high returns for the past two years are history, and the MILC program can provide a counter-cyclical type of payment during the grim 2009 milk economy, if you sign-up one month before you plan to enter the program. Read more at: aede.osu.edu/programs/OhioDairy/MILC_Center/MILC_Center.htm .
• If you need DDGS, go to Indiana, says Purdue economist Frank Dooley. He says the Indiana ethanol industry will reach a 1 bil. gal. capacity and those ethanol plants will produce enough distillers' dried grains to feed IN livestock three times over. Dooley says that means an annual production of 900,000 tons of DDGS, when 300,000 are needed. He says the relative high price of $100 per ton has not given indications of softening.
• Ethanol proponents have some new ammunition to use from research at Nebraska:
  1) Corn ethanol directly emits an average of 51% less greenhouse gas than gasoline.
  2) Ethanol produces 1.5 to 1.8 units of energy for every unit it takes to make ethanol.
  3) 10-19 gal. of ethanol are produced for every gal. of petroleum used to grow corn.
• Many Cornbelt farmers may be surprised to find 80% of their soybean fields infested with soybean cyst nematodes as are fields in IL. Nematologist Terry Niblack says if a field has been SCN free, it will not be for long, and said IL was completely infested by 2005, after SCN was found in only 1 county in 1962. Niblack says soil sampling is the only way to know if SCN is present, since it can cause an undetected 30% yield drop.
• SCN is easier to keep suppressed than it is to reduce the impact says Extension specialist Niblack. She adds, "If the field is planted to a confirmed SCN-resistant variety and SCN populations are increasing, that's proof that adaptation or a "race shift" has occurred. SCN-resistant varieties do not have the same levels of resistance and there are no immune soybean varieties." She says rotate crops, varieties and sources of SCN resistance.
• Given the moisture saturation of soil, MO Extension's Laura Sweets is concerned about the potential for seed decay, seedling blights, and root rot problems for both corn and beans this spring. She says that favors pythium, rhizoctonia, and fusarium fungi problems for both corn and beans, and phytophthora problems for beans. She recommends using seed with high germination rates and fungicides, if not pre-applied.
• All of that information you provided to the USDA in 2007 for the Ag Census, will be published on Feb. 4 when the results of the Ag Census are released. County-level data is the smallest unit that will be detailed, and will show the changes in agriculture from 2002 when the last Ag Census was taken until the latest one nearly two years ago.

The Logan Co. FSA will be conducting informational meetings on the new Farm Bill. The meetings will cover the Direct and Counter-Cyclical Program, payment eligibility, and the new ACRE program.

All meetings start at 9:30 a.m. and will be held at the Emden Community House on January 30, the Lincoln Rec Center on February 3rd, JD's Reception Hall in Minier on February 6th, and at Elkhart Zion Center on February 11th. Contact the Logan County FSA Office at 217-735-5508 with any further questions.

• Will your cropping pattern change in 2009? IL Extension's Darrel Good says many farmers are still waiting for fertilizer prices to come down, commodity prices to give stronger signals, and cost estimates and price guarantees from crop insurance. His newsletter is at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/012009.html .
• Will more corn or beans be needed? Good says the answer depends on: the level of consumption next year, the magnitude of stocks at the end of the current marketing year, and US average yields in 2009, but the question won't be answered before planting time.
• For corn: Good says repeating 2008 acreage of 85.982 mil. and a trend yield of 153 bu. would produce 12.04 bil. bu. Combined with the 1.79 bil. ending stocks from 2008, such a crop would still provide a 490 mil. bu. surplus with a 12.53 bil. bu. consumption. He contends that corn acreage needs to be maintained at least at 2008 levels of 86 mil.
• For beans: Good says repeating 2008 acreage of 75.718 mil. and the trend yield of 42.3 bu. is reached, then a crop of 3.164 bil. bu. would be produced. He says with the 225 mil. bu. carryout, soybean use during the 2009-2010 marketing year would have to exceed 3.204 bil. bu., which he doubts, to warrant increased soybean acreage in 2009.
• Set sales targets, advises marketing specialist Jim Hilker at Mich. St. because there is plenty of corn, "$4.00 being a good starting target to consider for both this year and next. Of course you can average into $4.00 by staring a bit below and hoping to price some of it above. The other target you need to set is how much you want to price at each price target and time period, don't get carried away, but consider making significant sales."
• Soybean pricing depends on the Argentine drought in Hilker's mind. "The drought in Argentina both makes that a hard decision, but also may be an opportunity. Futures were only willing to pay four cents a month storage, which would only cover those with on farm storage and no production loans due. And the $9.60-70 price being offered for old crop is above what fundamentals would project at this time on known information."
• Potentially the most damaging aspect of (the Jan. 12 USDA) reports for the corn market is that the weaker demand doesn't look like it will be a one year phenomenon, says Matt Roberts at Ohio State. "Combined with higher initial inventories for next year, these reports remove much of the worry about the 2009 crop year—not only will there be a large carry-in to buffer any production shortfalls, but demand will be weak."
• Unlike corn, says Roberts, "There is no evidence of a broad-based, dramatic slowdown in soybean demand." There is softness in domestic crush, but exports are stronger. He says, "These reports provided a tremendous amount of support to soybean demand."
• Matt Roberts says, there does not appear to be much hope for higher prices in the short or intermediate term. He says corn acreage could drop 2 mil. from 2008 and corn prices would still move lower. He agrees with Darrel Good, "There is no compelling scenario in which the soybean market 'needs' additional acreage." And he says compared to the battle "for" acres of the past 3 years, weak demand will cause a battle "from" acres.
• Roberts believes undesignated acres may be destined more for wheat than for corn or soybeans. "This leads me to believe that we may have already seen the strongest of the winter rally, and prices will decline from this point to $3.80-$4.00 for the Dec '09 CBOT contract, where they will wait to gain a better handle on farmers' planting intentions."
• Strong grain prices may create problems for some farmers with the new Adjusted Gross Income rules that determine farm program payment eligibility says Steven Johnson at Iowa St., and he says there are some new financial reporting forms required by FSA.
  1) CCC-902I, which is a "Farm Operating Plan for Individuals."
  2) CCC-902E, which is a "Farm Operating Plan for Entities."
  3) CCC-926, which computes Average Adjusted Gross Income.
• As a refresher, Johnson says, "For commodity and disaster programs, the AGI limitation was reduced from the 2002 law's $2.5 mil. from all sources to a 3-year average non-farm AGI of $500,000. For 2009, those 3 years will consist of taxable years 2005, 2006 and 2007. An individual or entity that exceeds this $500,000 non-farm AGI average shall not be eligible for such programs. Also, under the new regulations, an individual or entity must have a 3-year average AGI under $750,000 per year from farm income in order to qualify for direct payments issued under the Direct and Counter-cyclical Program."
• Cattle feeders are being hurt by ethanol plants that are shutting down and diminishing the volume of wet and dry distillers' grains that are available. Nebraska livestock economist Darrell Mark says, "Feeders can't simply remove it from rations once cattle have been fed this highly palatable feed. Given strong local demand and reduced supply, the cost of distillers' grains has increased dramatically relative to corn (despite absolute prices dropping)." More: http://www.lmic.info/memberspublic/InTheCattleMarket.html
• Pork producers are intrigued with the 2008 broiler production, which was down 0.7% for the year and 5.8% for the 4^th quarter. MO livestock economists Grimes and Plain say the cutback is big in absolute terms and historically. They say the pork-poultry cross demand relationship is high and "Therefore, this reduction in poultry supplies and higher prices should be positive to pork demand." http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull1c.htm .
• Returns to cattle feeders in 2008 were a minus $130 per head according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center, and the worst going back into the 1970's. That is based on feeding out a 750 lb. steer in a commercial feedlot. Grimes and Plain say, "Due to the weakening feeder-calf prices and high costs, some cow-calf producers did not cover cash costs of production in late 2008." Returns are in the 20^th month of red ink.
• Livestock production will be down in 2008. The Grimes and Plain Outlook says:
  1) Beef producers will continue to reduce the cattle herd in 2009 and into 2010.
  2) Pork production will decline 2-3% in the first quarter of 2009, and 3% for the year.
  3) Chicken and turkey production will decline 3%, an unusual two year decline.
• Should corn silage get extra N? That was the question to be answered in a 4 year IL study involving continuous corn, corn-soybean rotations, and varying rates of N.
  1) Silage yield and crude protein were higher in Sb-C than in C-C rotations.
  2) Silage yield and crude protein rose in both rotations up to 180 lbs. of N.
  3) Neutral detergent fiber decreased in both rotations with increasing N rates.
  4) Results were minimal or inconsistent for other silage quality parameters.
• Delayed weed control means lost corn yield to weed specialist Bob Hartzler at Iowa St. Early season weed competition reduced the biomass of the ear shoot up to 85%. He says allowing weeds to compete for an additional week when corn was growing from V4 to V5 resulted in a 63% increase in lost yield because ear shoots begin at the V5 stage. Read his analysis at: http://www.weeds.iastate.edu/mgmt/2009/toolong.pdf .
• If non-GMO soybean premiums have caught your attention, please, please remember that Roundup is not an option for weed control. Some farmers will need a refresher on weed control for non-GMO beans. You can do it from home with the help of Ohio State's weed management fact sheets. Find them at: http://agcrops.osu.edu/weeds/ .
• For maximizing grain yield and profitability, soybean variety selection is the single most important factor. In a free webcast presentation titled Soybean Variety Selection, WI Soybean Extension Specialist Shawn Conley discusses variety selection criteria and other related yield-maximizing factors. This recording, which can be viewed through mid-February, is provided by the non-profit Plant Management Network: http://www.plantmanagementnetwork.org/edcenter/seminars/SampleWebcast/
• Your grain bins may be out of sight, but should not be out of mind. MO Extension's Charles Ellis says cooler air along the sides settles, and is warmed at the bottom, where it carries moisture to the top and releases it for the benefit of insects and mold. The top surface moisture condensation will lead to rapid spoilage as the outside air warms. He suggests aeration. http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/fullissue/v19n1.pdf
• The Clean Water Act has broadened, thanks to a federal court ruling on FIFRA-regulated pesticides that might find their way into water. Although EPA may have found the chemicals were not environmentally harmful, the court ruled that pesticides are not exempt when they leak into water. Iowa St. specialist Roger McEowen says the court may have been confused. Read more at: http://www.calt.iastate.edu/cleanwater.html .
• Mark your calendar if you are buying, selling, or renting Cornbelt farmland. The Chicago Farmers Farmland Investment Fair is set for Feb. 7 at Joliet (IL) Junior College. Speakers will focus on farm management, ownership issues, production alternatives, and the Farm Bill. Registration and trade show information is at: www.chicagofarmers.org .

"Besides the pedigree information and EPDs and Accuracies found in the hard copy, which will be out next week, the web version includes pertinent information like Adjusted Birth, Weaning and Yearling Weights, Illinois Heifer Development Program-eligible bulls; and the six-trait Power Score which determines sale order," he said. "In addition, the website contains the registration numbers where producers can link to the breed associations and secure a copy of the performance pedigrees."

The Feb. 19 IPT Bull Sale is the leadoff event for the Illinois Beef Expo held on the Illinois State Fairgrounds.

"There are 117 performance bulls cataloged, including 83 Angus, 33 Simmental, and one Polled Hereford," said Seibert, who is the sale's manager. Additional information can be obtained by contacting Seibert at (309) 694-7501, dseibert@illinois.edu .

Urbana - This year, the sponsors of the Certified Livestock Manager Training (CLMT) workshops are going the extra mile to assist producers in their efforts to comply with the Illinois Livestock Management Facilities Act and other environmental regulations.

"The first person to register from a facility will pay $30," said Randy Fonner, U of I Extension specialist and coordinator of the workshops. "Additional registrants from the same facility will only be charged $20."

Although Fonner emphasized that each facility is only required to have one person certified, "there is value in larger facilities having multiple people certified," he noted. "If one person leaves for a week, and a second employee is certified, you've got yourself covered."

Fonner also believes there is educational value in having employees hear the message and participate in the workshops. "This is an opportunity to provide additional training for your employees, and that's always a good thing," he said. "Everything we talk about, whether it's safety, odor, land application, regulations, it's all important information for anyone who works at the facility."

Since the Livestock Management Facilities Act was passed in Illinois in May of 1996, certification in livestock manure management is required for producers with more than 300 animal units, and must be renewed every three years.

Some of the topics that will be addressed at this year's workshops include concrete construction and the value of manure as fertilizer.

"We want to help producers with quality construction that also meets state regulations," said Fonner. "You need to make sure the work gets done right so the approval process with the Department of Agriculture goes smoothly."

Fonner also said the value of manure as fertilizer is a hot topic these days.

"With the increase in the cost of commercial fertilizer, manure is a little more valuable in people's eyes," he said.

But Fonner said it is important to know how to apply manure efficiently, with an eye to environmental risk. "You need to know what's in the manure," he said, "and you need a good soil test to show you where you should apply it, and where you shouldn't. If you variably apply nutrients, you're putting them where you need them and getting the most 'bang for your buck.' You're also reducing the risk of unused nutrients going into surface or ground water."

Other topics will include approved carcass disposal methods and management practices, using manure on forage crops, practical odor control strategies, the latest odor-management research, and innovative manure storage and process technologies.

To register for a workshop or purchase a manual or CD, call (800) 345-6087. Prices are listed below and you may pay by credit card. If you have a manual, 2003 or newer, you will not need to purchase a new manual.

CLM Workshop Registration: $30 per person; same farm registrations will be charged $30 for the first registration and $20 for each additional if registered at the same time.

CLM Manual only: $55.00 + $7.00 shipping = $62.00

CLM CD only $25.00 + $7.00 shipping = $32.00

CLM Manual & CD: $80.00 + $7.00 shipping = $87.00

Workshop walk-ins: $92.00 per person (includes CLM manual)

A workshop brochure is available at www.livestocktraining.com. If you have questions, contact Fonner at (217) 333-2611 or e-mail him at clmt@illinois.edu.

January 29, 2009 -- Newton – Focus on SWINE

Location: Sunrise Community Center, 1401 Clayton Ave., Newton, Ill. For directions, call the Jasper Co. Extension Office at (618) 783-2521. Registration: 8:15 a.m. Workshop starts: 8:50 a.m. Participants arriving after 9:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 1:30 p.m. This workshop will primarily be aimed at SWINE producers, but is open to all producers.

January 30, 2009 -- Nashville – Focus on SWINE

Location: St. Paul's United Church of Christ, 330 North Buhrman St., Nashville, Ill. For directions, call the Washington Co. Extension Office at (618) 327-8881. Registration: 8:15 a.m. Workshop starts: 8:50 a.m. Participants arriving after 9:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 1:30 p.m. This workshop will primarily be aimed at SWINE producers, but is open to all producers.

(Please notice time change for BEEF/DAIRY workshops.)

February 17, 2009 -- Breese – Focus on BEEF/DAIRY

Location: Clinton County Extension Office, 1163 North 4^th St., Breese, Ill. For directions call the Clinton Co. Extension Office at (618) 526-4551. Registration: 9:30 a.m. Workshop starts: 10:00 a.m. Participants arriving after 10:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 2:00 p.m. This workshop will primarily be aimed at BEEF/DAIRY producers, but is open to all producers.

February 18, 2009 -- Effingham – Focus on BEEF/DAIRY

Location: Effingham County Extension Office, 1209 Wenthe Dr., Effingham, Ill. For directions call the Effingham Co. Extension Office at (217) 347-5126. Registration: 9:30 a.m. Workshop starts: 10:00 a.m. Participants arriving after 10:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 2:00 p.m. This workshop will primarily be aimed at BEEF/DAIRY producers, but is open to all producers.

February 25, 2009 -- Freeport – Focus on BEEF/DAIRY

Location: Stephenson County Farm Bureau Building, 210 W. Spring St., Freeport, Ill. For directions call the Stephenson Co. Extension Office at (815) 235-4125. Registration: 9:30 a.m. Workshop starts: 10:00 a.m. Participants arriving after 10:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 2:00 p.m. This workshop will primarily be aimed at BEEF/DAIRY producers, but is open to all producers.

February 26, 2009 -- Mt. Carroll – Focus on SWINE

Location: Carroll County Farm Bureau, Naaman Diehl Auditorium, Rt. 64 & 78, Mt. Carroll, Ill. For directions call the Carroll County Extension Office at (815) 244-9444. Registration: 8:15 a.m. Workshop starts: 8:50 a.m. Participants arriving after 9:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 1:30 p.m. This workshop will primarily be aimed at SWINE producers, but is open to all producers.

March 3, 2009 -- Sycamore

Location: DeKalb County Farm Bureau Building, 1350 W. Prairie Dr., Sycamore, Ill. For directions call the DeKalb Co. Extension Office at (815) 758-8194. Registration: 8:15 a.m. Workshop starts: 8:50 a.m. Participants arriving after 9:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 1:30 p.m.

March 9, 2009 -- Springfield

Location: Sangamon/Menard County Extension Office, Illinois State Fairgrounds, South Gate, Bldg. 30, Springfield, Ill. For directions call the Sangamon/Menard Co. Extension Office at (217) 782-4617. Registration: 8:15 a.m. Workshop starts: 8:50 a.m. Participants arriving after 9:20 a.m. cannot be certified for attending the workshop. IDOA written exam: 1:30 p.m.

The end of the calendar year brings a flury of "settling up" on some custom work done for neighbors, friends, or on a business agreement. Below is the link to the latest edition (May, 08) of Costs of Operation figures for Illinois:

http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/machinery/machinery_summary.html

These figures are based on actual costs to perform an operation including power, machinery, fuel, and labor. There is no management fee included.

For some of the less traditional rates not included on the Illinois site, try the Iowa State University site. They actually survey operators to garner their figures:

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/publications/FM1698.pdf

• The link to crude oil has broken says economist Chad Hart at Iowa State and grain prices are stronger. Hart says the strength in corn and bean prices has come from weather concerns in South America, weakness in the dollar, and bidding for 2009 acreage. More: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2009/ifo010109.pdf#page=3 .
• Corn exports are significantly behind the pace of last year, despite weather problems in Brazil and Argentina that threaten the size of their corn crops. But soybean exports are stronger, running well ahead of early 2008 levels. Chinese purchases have been the key. With the stronger dollar hurting exports, Brazil's trade could certainly benefit, says Hart.
• The 2009 calendar year may be the first that ethanol production could be less than the federal mandates for production. Chad Hart at Iowa State says the ethanol industry has suffered financial stress as seen by the Verasun bankruptcy. He says that means there will be less DDGS produced and a greater demand for corn by the livestock industry.
• Chad Hart is not expecting 2009 total acreage to expand has it has been for several years because of the higher production costs and lower profitability. He says some forecasts have been for record acreage of soybeans as farmers shift away from high priced fertilizers for corn. Hart says prices in the early part of 2009 and weather going into the planting season will ultimately decide the allocation of corn and bean acres.
• The federal ethanol production mandates makes marketing specialist Jim Hilker at Michigan State think corn acreage will expand by 2.3 mil. over last year. He said 2 mil. more acres will be needed and the ethanol industry will bid up prices to buy some insurance acres. He says, "If you look at corn prices relative to soybean prices, corn yield relative to soybean yields, and you look at the huge drop in wholesale fertilizer prices, corn will deliver a higher return per acre. Thus more corn acres to be planted."
• Hilker says soybean acreage will drop by 1 mil. acres from last year because of better returns for corn. He says if they drop very little, soybean prices may struggle next year and he's suggesting prices be locked in for fall delivery. His reasoning includes:
  1) Ending stocks for the 2009/2010 crop will be 250 mil. bu. with trend yields.
  2) Export growth & increased domestic demand will support prices for the new crop.
  3) Increased acreage will result in 2010, and ending stocks will continue to build.
• Mark your calendar for Jan. 12, when USDA will close out the 2008 production year estimates. The final projection will be made in crop size, along with a new supply-demand estimate, and the Quarterly Stocks Report. Winter wheat seedings will also be reported. Watch the farm gate website for a summary of the USDA crop reports.
• Production cost: Fuel. Diesel fuel prices are down 28% from the highs and 25% in the last month, but only down 1% from year ago levels. Mike Duffy at Iowa State says tune engines, keep tires properly inflated, and consider energy efficient replacements.
• Production cost: Seed. Duffy says 30% price variations on comparable products are not uncommon, as seed industry competition is reduced and prices rise. He says make sure you can benefit from a special genetic trait before buying seed with that trait.
• Production cost: Fertilizer. Fertilizer and lime costs are up 64% from 5 years ago, and estimating costs is difficult with different payment regimes. Duffy predicts steady prices for N & P, but uncertainty for K, as higher priced products are sold before lower priced.
• Production cost: Pesticides. Pest management costs have increased considerably says Duffy, who says one popular herbicide will likely double in price for 2009. Pesticide costs per acre were flat the last several years, but he says that trend will end in 2009.
• Production cost: Rent. Average increases will be up by 8% says Duffy, which will follow land values. He says lower grain prices and higher input costs will lead to lower returns and that should lead to lower rent, which is up 30% over the past 3 years.
• Continuous corn will cost $4.88 for 165 bu. and $5.10 for 145 bu. for non-land cost of production. Corn after beans will cost $4.21 for 180 bu. and $4.32 for 160 bu. for non-land costs. Soybeans will cost $9.64 for 55 bu. and $9.81 for 50 bu. for non-land costs.
• Mike Duffy at Iowa State says prepare for volatile grain and input prices, and risk management is going to take on a new meaning and urgency in the years ahead. He thinks wild gyrations will settle down, but prices and costs will be at a higher level. He says the energy-related boom for agriculture has faded and the 2009 outlook is not bright.
• One final note, says Duffy, "Remember that over the past 40 years there has only been one year when the top third farms in the Iowa Farm Business Association didn't make money. Somebody is always making money in Iowa agriculture."
• To follow up on diesel prices, Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter tracks the NYMEX crude oil market which determines diesel prices. He says March prices should be 48% less than last year, and April through July, diesel prices should be more than 50% less than what you paid in 2008. Harvest prices should be 30-45% less than last fall.
• No lower fertilizer prices yet, says Jim Hilker at Michigan St., but stocks of high priced fertilizer must be sold first. "Consider waiting to price fertilizer until you can price it at the lower prices. Urea in the mid $300's, wholesale NH3 in the $500 range, may find retail NH3 for $600, wholesale DAP around $600, and wholesale potash around $900, which is the smallest drop." More: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• Crop insurance indemnity payments will likely be taxable as 2008 income, since most of the revenue policies paid price declines, not yield losses. A yield loss payment can be deferred if it follows your normal marketing pattern, but any portion of the indemnity related to revenue cannot. An indemnity from a GRIP payment will not be paid until later this spring and will be considered 2009 income, says Iowa State farm management specialist Steve Johnson. He says any payment deferred must be all or none and cannot be split. Iowa State's Johnson urges farmers to seek advice from a certified tax preparer.
• Modest profits are in the future for the hog industry says Purdue economist Chris Hurt in his latest newsletter. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/010509.html . However, that is dependent upon moderating feed prices and somewhat higher hog prices as production is anticipated to decline 1-2% during 2009. But Hurt says the 21% of production that was exported in 2008 to help out, may not be as robust this year.
• With a 60¢ reduction in corn and a $25 drop per ton in bean meal, Hurt says cost of production should drop $3-4/cwt for live hogs. He says that may turn the $15 loss per head in 2008 to a gain of $3 per head in 2009, reversing 6 straight quarters of losses.
• The 2009 beef market will be marked with the start of a consumer trend of less beef being purchased and purchasing less expensive cuts of meat, says Nevil Speer at Western Kentucky. He says the corn market will also interfere with profitability and the end result is continued turbulence, requiring careful decision making and risk management.
• The sufficiency approach for P, K and S management allows for significant savings in short-term fertilizer costs, says NE fertility specialist Richard Ferguson. "With this approach, nutrient application is not recommended when the soil test level exceeds the critical level as the probability of yield response is low. With the crop nutrient removal approach, an additional $118.56 of nutrients per acre would be applied for situations of adequate nutrient availability and 200 bu/acre corn yield." http://cropwatch.unl.edu/ .
• Clay soils that are poorly drained have a long compaction memory say Ohio State soil scientists. On a no-till field, the compaction caused by one trip of a grain cart resulted in a 40% yield loss, with effects of the compaction continuing for 8 years. They determined that it is better to prevent the compaction initially, than struggle to eliminate it.
• Preventing compaction can be accomplished, say Ohio State researchers:
  1) Practicing minimal tillage techniques, such as chisel plowing or subsoiling.
  2) Rely on earthworms for help, but compaction reduces their population by 70%.
  3) Utilize alfalfa or other cover crops that have deep taproots to open compacted soil.
  4) Crop residue left in the field acts as a buffer to dissipate any wheeled traffic.
  5) Use dual axle equipment with wider tires to distribute weight over a wider area.
  6) Practice controlled traffic to confine equipment traffic to specific paths each year.
• The difficulty of defining sustainable agriculture has appeared again in a national effort to create standards for sustainable agricultural production, processing, and product handling, says IL ag law specialist Bryan Endres. In an effort to select an organization without preconceived ideas to write the plan, the input of a large segment of agriculture was ignored. Work is resuming on the standards with wider farmer representation. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/announcements/agrinews/Dec_2008/agrinews_Dec_2008.html .

· The December USDA crop report made headlines for cutting projections for corn used for ethanol from 4 bil. to 3.7 bil. bu. But Extension's Jim Hilker at Mich. State says 2009 will still require 700 mil. more bu. of corn used for ethanol than the 2007-2008 marketing year. He says subsidies and mandates remain, but just the rate of growth is slowing.

· Hilker says E-85 prices used to be less than the price of gasoline, but that is no longer true. "This is due to wholesale gas prices dropping to around $1.10, while ethanol has dropped to about $1.50 per gallon. At the peak of the oil and corn prices ethanol reached $2.90, about 80% of gas prices at the time. The relatively higher ethanol content in E-85 is one reason the USDA has lowered their forecasted use of corn for ethanol."

· With trend yields in corn and the nearly 1.5 bil. bu. carryover next August, Hilker says 2.25 mil. fewer corn acres will be needed in 2009, but he expects a 3 mil. acre expansion. Hilker's latest newsletter can be found at: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .

· If you have corn to sell, Hilker says, "The futures market spreads continue to say it will pay five cents a month to store corn, under a hedge if prices drop, and under both a hedge and storing cash if prices rise. However, the nearby basis has tightened to the point where it may no longer help with paying for storage. This tells me that on-farm storage is still a reasonable alternative, and paying commercial storage plus lost interest is not."

· If you have beans to sell, Hilker says, "The futures are telling everybody it will not pay to store soybeans. Of course, with 35 cents-plus nearby basis it is hard to know what that means. My best shot is if you want to stay in the soybean market, use a basis contract, sell cash/forward contract and buy futures, or sell cash/forward contract and buy calls."

· When your bookwork is finished, 2008 will show substantial red ink for hog producers says IL ag economist Dale Lattz. Reviewing records from 5,500 farms, Lattz says hog prices are expected to average about $49.50/cwt in 2008. The sharp increase in corn and soybean prices early in 2008 will resulted in significantly higher feed costs. Feed costs are expected to average about $38.75/cwt and non-feed costs at $19.70. Total production costs would be $58.45/cwt, or significantly above the average price received.

• 2008 will prove to be less profitable for beef producers than 2007, says Dale Lattz at IL Farm Business Farm Management. Returns to cattle producers were supported by slightly higher finished cattle prices and lower prices paid for replacement cattle. Offsetting the higher finished cattle prices will be significantly higher feed costs. Feed costs rose in 2008 due to higher corn and forage prices. Even with higher finished cattle prices, those higher feed costs will most likely result in 2008 returns below 2007 returns.
• Deductions, exemptions, and depreciation are at the top of your mind, and all farmers should beware of many changes approved by Congress late in the year to boost the economy that have implications for farm taxes. For changes in the law and needed tax tables, MN Extension tax specialists have provided extensive information at: http://www.cffm.umn.edu/Publications/pubs/FarmMgtTopics/AgTaxUpdate.pdf .
• Full time farm employees who received a year end bonus were rewarded with an average of $1,000, but within a range of $50 to $9,000 according to an Iowa State survey. 55% of employees received the bonus, which were based either on volume of commodity produced, commodity quality and performance, longevity, or farm profitability.
• Year end bonuses were tallied by Iowa State ag economist William Edwards who notes a bonus does not have to be paid in cash. Appliances, gift certificates, paid vacation or travel. A commodity can also be used, such as a volume of grain or livestock, or grain from acreage to sell. Edwards says current tax laws do not subject payments to employees in the form of commodities to Social Security tax. For ideas about bonus payments, visit: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/wholefarm/html/c1-61.html .
• Cash rent increases from 2008 to 2009 may be flat says Purdue economist Craig Dobbins, due to the erosion in grain prices and economic meltdown. "So the decision that might have been made in September to pay cash rents in 2009 of $180 to $200 an acre and still have something left over, well, today there's nothing left over and a farmer is in the hole." He says costs and profits should be carefully calculated when negotiating rent.
• Purdue's Craig Dobbins says when meeting with a land owner to discuss cash rental rates, "It's worthwhile to share some information about your costs, how you see your return situation shaping up and letting the landowner know what the margin is potentially going to be for the next year." He says owners should be aware of market price drops. Get negotiating help at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/news/financial/leases_final.pdf .
• Production costs are going to be cut where possible says Dobbins. He says this is not the time for a fertility building program. No-till systems will help cut down trips across fields. Money can be saved by ensuring seeding rates are at the proper level.
• Are your yield goals reasonable? Profitability can be increased $7.50 per acre by decreasing a yield goal that was 10 bu./A too high, or increased $42.50 per acre by increasing a yield goal that was 10 bu./A too low. NE agronomist Charles Shapiro says the savings comes from a more correct nitrogen application adjusted for reasonable yield. Read his fact sheet: http://www.ianrpubs.unl.edu/epublic/live/g481/build/g481.pdf
• Profitability is dependent upon the efficient and wise use of fertilizer says KY soil specialist Lloyd Murdock. He offers a checklist for fertilizer profitability:
  1) A soil test will indicate if reserves of P and K in the soil are sufficient for profits.
  2) If P exceeds 45 lbs/A and K exceeds 250 lbs/A, why add more and raise your cost?
  3) If P & K are insufficient, apply them in the row at a half to a third of broadcast rates.
  4) When the pH is between 6.2 and 7.0, crops use fertilizers much more efficiently.
  5) Manure is cheaper, but good distribution and nutrient testing are the keys to its value.
  6) K should be applied each year if vegetation is harvested such as silage, hay, or straw.
  7) Sidedressing N on poorly drained soils will improve efficiency and allow lower rates.
• Evaluating hybrids can become easier with two principles offered by Purdue's Bob Nielsen at: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/HybridSeln.html .
  1) Consistent yields 5% above the average yield of trials in which they are entered.
  2) Consistently yield at least 90% of the maximum yielding hybrid in a trial.
• Purdue's Bob Nielsen also says look for trials that evaluate hybrids over multiple locations. Multiple testing locations in a single year represent possible weather patterns your farm may encounter in the future. Weather influences hybrid performance more than any other variable, because weather interacts with most of the other yield limiting factors.
• Selecting corn hybrids for silage requires different standards than hybrids for grain. MN agronomist Jeff Coulter says check performance data from university seed trials.
  1) Silage hybrids should be 5-10 days longer in maturity than hybrids for grain.
  2) Consider hybrids with a range in maturity to avoid crop loss from heat or drought.
  3) Avoid hybrids with long stay-green ratings because whole plant moisture is too high.
  4) Dairy producers should evaluate hybrids by milk per acre and milk per ton at: www.wisc.edu/dysci/uwex/nutritn/spreadsheets/milk2006cornsilagev1.xls .
• December weather has been LaNina weather says Elwynn Taylor at Iowa State. He says it is extraordinary for it to develop this early, which is 3 months earlier than usual. A LaNina peaked last March, contributed to spring flooding, and diminished by mid-May and began to peak again in November, causing all of the snow and cold temperatures.
• Will the LaNina remain with us? Taylor says, "The "early peak" of the current LaNina may indicate that the adverse impacts with the large-scale event will dissipate early in the growing season. If so, the above average moisture in the soils of the Cornbelt would be considered as advantageous to potential crop yields." In the meantime, Taylor there has been near record flooding of some Midwest rivers, instead of January for LaNina years.
• Warmer temperatures are on the way says MO climatologist Pat Quinan, who says precipitation predictions are a toss-up for January according to the National Climate Predication Center. Guinan says 10 of the past 15 winters have been warmer than normal with 3 in the top 5 warmest since 1895. Eleven of the past 15 have been wetter than normal. Guinan says 2008 was one of the wettest years which means livestock ponds are full, ground water is in good shape for spring planting, and soil moisture is sufficient.
• Corn milling technology can be improved with a new gene inserted in corn that will cause it to stand out under special lighting. The genes can be inserted into the embryo, the starch, or the pericarp coating on the seed and the selected element can be identified under the testing light after the corn has been milled. Iowa State researchers say the individual kernel parts can be identified and segregated easier with the advancement.

• The battle for acreage had begun at this time last year as corn and soybean prices rose to record levels to ensure sufficient supplies. But IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good says the 2009 battle may be just keeping acreage in crop production, instead of letting it return to abandonment. Good says 9 million acres were added to the crop base between 2006 and 2008, and unless prices increase, some of it will revert to prior uses.
• Darrel Good says 2009 corn use will be 12.185 bil. bu. which is 588 mil. bu. less than last year, and the carryover is nearly 1.5 bil. He says if use expands to 12.8 bil. in the 2009-2010 marketing year, then additional acres will need to be planted in 2009. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/121508.html .
• Following the bearish December 11 crop report, prices began to rise, and have come upward significantly since the release of the report, with the help of higher prices for crude oil and predictions of lesser corn acres in 2009. Good says those forecasts are premature, but he says a late harvest and inclement fall weather have given farmers more than the usual amount of flexibility on what crops can be planted in the spring of 2009.
• Corn gained more than 40¢ in the past week and VA Tech Extension's Mike Roberts says the forecast for less acres was one cause, "One report stated that some analysts are expecting corn acreage to fall by as much as 3.6 mil. acres in 2009. We'll see. If input costs are high and corn prices stay relatively non-profitable at these levels it just may happen. Producers try to go where the money is . . . just like anyone else."
• The National Weather Service says the La Nina will not likely last past February. Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says, "That is long enough for a winter a lot like the one we had last year. This does not mean serious flooding as in the past spring, but it does include the risk of that as well. If it is gone by March, there would not be as much chance of extreme weather as in the past spring with its record tornadoes and flooding."
• Land price inflation may be slowing, says Iowa State economist Mike Duffy. He says the average price of land has risen for 9 consecutive years, but the indicators point to a slowing as the national economy battles recessionary pressures. He says lower grain prices and higher production costs mean lower net revenue, which moderates values.
• But land values will not go into free fall, says Iowa State's Duffy, who says the price trends of the 1980's will not be repeated. He expects a return to more normal conditions and not "unbridled exuberance" seen over the past 24 months. He expects a retreat from the high prices, but is uncertain where they will go in the next year or so.
• There is something about US pork that foreign consumers like, and they can't get enough of it. For the first 10 months of the year, pork exports are nearly 61% higher than last year, and 21% of the total of US pork production is being exported says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes, and he adds that pork imports are down nearly 17%.
• Cow-calf operators who missed the Oct. market high, may have a second chance to sell their calves for similar prices, but Utah State economist Dillon Feuz says it may be in 2009. He says live cattle contracts have increased in the past 10 days, and another $5 will put them back at Oct. levels. And he expects cash cattle prices to increase as well.
• Tax implications could be significant by not selling any 2008 calves and selling twice in 2009. Livestock economist Feuz says there may not be much money made on the calves, but operators should talk to their tax advisor to avoid undue tax consequences.
• The net worth statement or the accrual net income statement you will soon prepare should have a value of the commodities on hand to give a complete picture. Iowa St. economists suggest: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/wholefarm/html/c1-40.html
  Crops: $3 corn, $8 beans, $4.65 wheat, $30 per ton corn silage, $115 per ton alfalfa hay.
  Livestock: $85 heifers, $95 steers, $43/cwt hogs, $110/cwt feeder pigs, $800 cows.
  Pasture: $60/A improved, $40/A permanent, $15/animal/month.
  Labor: $2,700/month operator labor, $1,700/month unpaid family labor.
• The rate of return on your farm goes up by acreage and gross farm income, but if you use statistics from MN farms, the largest operations do not have the best rate of return. Bob Craven of MN Extension reports rate of return on farms with $500,000 to $1,000,000 have a 15.8% rate of return, which falls to 14.2% for farms over $1,000,000. Farms with 2,000 to 5,000 acres have a 16.9% rate of return, compared to 16.3%, not only for the 1,500, to 2,000 acre group, but also for those with 5,000 to 10,000 acres.
• Soybean cyst nematode continues its devious march across the Cornbelt, and NE plant pathologist Loren Giesler urges soybean growers to use SCN resistant varieties of soybeans, and once they are in your crop planning, rotate the source of the resistance. He says don't let SCN reach a level that makes soybean production unfeasible in that field.
• Missouri about washed away in 2008 says state climatologist Pat Guinan. He says statewide average precipitation is almost 16 in. above normal, which is the largest above-normal departure from the norm in the US. Guinan says if Dec. has more than 2.56 in. of precipitation, it would surpass 1993, which averaged over 55 in. of precipitation. He says most of MO had more than 50 in. of precipitation, but some parts had more than 70 in.

Urbana - Crop production, pest management, economics, and the interactions among them will be the emphasis of the 2009 University of Illinois Corn and Soybean Classics. This series of regional conferences is scheduled at six sites between January 6 and January 15.

"One of the biggest draws of the Classic is the opportunity for participants to come to one location and in one day, hear nine different speakers cover a broad range of topics," said Aaron Hager, weed scientist with U of I Extension and coordinator of the Classics. "We cover everything from production to protection to marketing of corn and soybeans."

A wide variety of topics is offered this year, including disease management with fungicides, rotation decisions, corn and soybean nematode management, managing nitrogen for profitability, acreage shifts needed in 2009, and 'new age' soybean insect management. Market updates will be provided throughout the day, and CCA credits will be available.

"We've scheduled significant blocks of time to allow for questions and answers," said Hager. "We really want to emphasize communication between the speakers and the participants."

Scheduled speakers include U of I Extension specialists Carl Bradley, Fabián Fernández, Darrel Good, Mike Gray, Aaron Hager, Emerson Nafziger, Terry Niblack, Gary Schnitkey and Kevin Steffey.

The day-long programs will begin promptly at 9:00 a.m. A noon lunch and a proceedings booklet, containing synopses of all presentations, are provided to each registrant. Adjournment at each site is scheduled for 3:30 p.m.

Scheduled site locations are as follows:

• January 6 (Tuesday): Mt. Vernon Holiday Inn
• January 7 (Wednesday): Champaign I Hotel and Conference Center
• January 12 (Monday): Bloomington Interstate Center
• January 13 (Tuesday): Springfield Crowne Plaza
• January 14 (Wednesday): Moline i wireless Center
• January 15 (Thursday): Malta Kishwaukee College

Registration for the programs can be accomplished several ways:

• Online registration is available at http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/conferences
• Mail registration form and payment to: Department of Crop Sciences, Attention: Sandy Osterbur, University of Illinois, AW-101 Turner Hall, 1102 South Goodwin Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (Make checks payable to University of Illinois)
• Complete the registration form and fax to (217) 333-5299 (available 24 hours a day)
• Call toll free (800) 321-1296 with credit card information

Pre-registrations, at a cost of $50, are accepted through December 20, 2008. Registrations received December 21-31, and all on-site registrations, are $65.00. Additional information is available by contacting Aaron Hager or Sandy Osterbur at (217) 333-4424.

• A slowdown in exports and ethanol production has resulted in USDA raising its carryover estimates for the 2008 corn crop from 1.124 bil. bu. in Nov. to 1.474 bil. The December Supply and Demand Report dropped corn consumption by ethanol plants from 4 bil. to 3.7 bil. bu. and shaved exports from 1.9 to 1.8 bil. bu. USDA raised its estimate for feed use by 50 mil. and shifted downward the average price range to $3.65 to $4.35.
• The Supply and Demand Report was generally neutral for soybeans, holding ending stocks at 205 mil. bu. The only change was shifting 50 mil. bu. out of the domestic crush and into the export column. However, farm prices were dropped to $8.25 to $9.75. Also, USDA dropped soymeal prices $15 on both ends, and soy oil prices 6.5¢ on both ends. The complete USDA report is at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.txt .
• USDA raised US wheat stocks by 20 mil. bu. because of higher imports and lower demand, and 20¢ was knocked off the average price, to make it $6.40 to $7. Globally, wheat production is up with higher production in Canada, Brazil, and EU-27. World consumption will be down reflecting lower US demand. Two-thirds of the global ending stocks are in North America. Rains have reduced wheat quality in Argentina and Brazil.
• USDA's corn estimates included an observation about ethanol. "Financial problems for ethanol producers are reducing plant capacity utilization for existing plants and delaying plant openings for those facilities still under construction. Falling gasoline prices have also resulted in high relative prices for ethanol, reducing blender incentives."
• Negative economic news is keeping grain prices under pressure, says IL Extension's Darrel Good, who says corn prices are the lowest in more than 2 years and beans are at the lowest level in one and a half years. He says corn has received some price support from ethanol, which has only fallen 20¢ while gas has fallen 70¢ in the past 2 months. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/120808.html
• The nearly 1.5 bil. bu. ending stocks for corn means a reduced demand for more acres next year. Good said about 4-5 mil. more acres of corn were needed, until the 2008 carryout was raised 350 mil. bu. Soybean stocks over 200 mil. would have meant a need for 1.5 to 2 mil. fewer soybean acres in 2009, says Good, and USDA kept it at 205 mil.
• Wheat export demand is being lowered by the larger Russian crop, a stronger US dollar that make exports more expensive, and a lower export tax in Argentina that increases world competition. Soft red winter wheat acreage will be reported by the USDA in Jan. and a decline in production will mean a potential reduction in the large wheat inventory.
• What if, rhetorically asks Alan May at South Dakota State, the bidding war for acres never gets started before you go to the field next spring? May says, this "may make for an interesting summer if the economy begins to show signs of recovery into the end of 2009 and if planted acres do not match potential changes/improvements in demand." He says acreage may truly depend on cost versus expected returns of various crops.
• After corn hit life of contract lows last week, VA Tech economist Mike Roberts says delay pricing any new crop, while end users price 20% of feed needs on any downside moves. http://www.ext.vt.edu/news/periodicals/roberts/2008wp/Dec09_2008.html .
• With prices looking for a bottom, how do you cover cash needs? Iowa State's Steve Johnson says use the loan program at FSA for any farm stored grain, or use a basis contract for grain stored at the elevator. A basis contract locks in the basis, leaves open the futures portion of the price, and you finish the contract when futures prices rise.
• Another alternative to raise cash is Johnson's suggestion for a minimum price contract. He says lock in the best possible basis, and retain ownership with a May or June call option. Your premium cost can be subtracted from the net proceeds from the crop sales.
• Your marketing plan should also consider the market will likely retrace 40% to 60% of the July to October downtrend on the futures charts. Johnson also says make incremental sales of 5% to 10% of your total bushels when the spring rally begins. And he says $7 corn and $14 beans are no longer realistic price targets if you missed them last summer.
• If you are still negotiating cash rent for 2009, and a flexible cash lease remains on the table as an option, use the flexible cash lease calculator provided by Ohio State as a tool to factor in all of the revenue and expenses to come to a reasonable cash rental rate. Find it here: http://ohioagmanager.osu.edu/~ohioagmanager/news/index.php#flexlease .
• Less expensive feed will significantly benefit pork producers in the coming year says Purdue ag economist Chris Hurt. Compared to $4.60 corn in 2008, 2009 corn should average $3.40. Soybean meal which was $330 per ton in 2008, should be around $250 in the coming year. He says cost of production should drop from $53 to $47/cwt.
• Pork producers should take advantage of pricing opportunities says Purdue's Chris Hurt. He says knowing price direction is difficult to determine, but he says using the futures market to buy corn for 2009 and sell lean hog futures provides profitability.

• US beans are more in demand overseas than here at home. With 3 months into the marketing year, IL Extension's Darrel Good says export inspections have totaled 352 million bushels, but the domestic crush is only at 275 million 2 months into the year. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/120108.html
• Darrel Good says Chinese bean imports are 45% ahead of last year, and while the total has exceeded last year's export pace, he says it may not be a good indicator of what to expect for the rest of the year. Good says the pace of Chinese buying, South American production, and the world economy will all play into the total 2008-09 export demand.
• 2009 soybean acres will become the focus after the first of the year, and Good says a small reduction in acreage may be warranted, based on demand and the trend yield. Good says prices have been more of a function of soy oil than soy meal, but the current market dynamics are due to the general economy and falling crude oil prices.
• But look at corn and bean prices versus the crude oil price, says Chad Hart at Iowa St., since oil has dropped 50% since Labor Day, but corn has fallen only 39% and soybeans only 32%. Hart says that is because the Renewable Fuels Standard is giving support to both corn and soybean oil, which are needed for the federal biofuel mandate.
• Chad Hart says today's market dynamics will be with us in 2009, and the general economy will be a major driving factor. Stocks will be tight with little room for crop shortfalls. The biofuel industry will expand, the livestock industry will contract, and energy sector volatility will ripple across grain prices, input costs, and land values.
• A similar conclusion comes from MN marketing specialist Ed Usset. He says the demand for corn increased production and decreased acreage for beans and wheat, "Despite poor processing margins, ethanol production continues to expand because the construction of new plants began in better times. Don't expect the pressure for more corn acres (and fewer acres for other crops) to ease." http://edsworld.wordpress.com/ .
• Diesel fuel which averaged $3.68 per gallon during 2008, should average $1.97 per gallon during 2009, calculates Kansas St. economist Kevin Duhyvetter. His recap of NYMEX futures indicates a 46% drop in diesel fuel and 50% drop in crude oil into '09. His pleasant surprise numbers: http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf
• Fertilizer prices have not dropped as fast. Price data maintained by Ohio St. ag economists indicate their latest average for anhydrous ammonia was $1186 per ton, which was up 15% from 3 months earlier, but down from a high of $1212. Potash was $864, which was up 10% from 3 months earlier, and down from a high of $915 per ton.
• Tax help #1: A big benefit is being able to write off the first $250,000 in depreciation of assets bought in 2008 says NE tax specialist Tina Barrett. She says that includes tractors, combines, most farm equipment and breeding livestock, but not machine sheds.
• Tax help #2: Barrett says the ability to average income over a less sumptuous year will be another benefit to help reduce tax liability. And if you sold assets, qualifying for capital gains, the capital gains tax is zero for the current year.
• Tax help #3: Barrett says the IRS has finally clarified its rules, and individuals receiving social security payments will not have to pay self employment taxes on their CRP payments, if they are not actively farming. Anyone who is farming, and receiving CRP payments, and not receiving social security, will have to pay self-employment tax on it.
• Tax help #4: Purdue tax specialist George Patrick says cash basis farmers may want to sell commodities this year, and defer income to 2009, but that requires a contract with the elevator that says the farmer has no right to the payment until a specific date next year.
• Red meat and poultry production are declining says John Lawrence at Iowa St. While the smaller supply is partially offset by reduced exports, higher imports, and lower energy costs, he says in the end, higher retail prices are anticipated. His newsletter is at: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo120108.pdf
• Late Oct. and early Nov. brought hog slaughter numbers that were below year earlier levels says John Lawrence, meaning the inventory cutback began earlier than had been anticipated. He says the decline should last at least through the first 3 quarters of 2009.
• Country of Origin Labeling is impacting Smithfield hogs, says Lawrence, which will have to be US born. Lawrence says Smithfield's Farmland and Morrell plants will have to bid higher for US-born hogs, and Canadian hogs will have to find a new buyer. He says Canadian hogs will either be discounted or slaughtered only on certain days.
• Beef prices may be higher says Lawrence at Iowa St., because supplies are expected to record a year over year decline for the first 2 quarters of 2009. He says heavier placements mean reduced second quarter marketings, and higher in the third quarter. Despite a lower supply, the poor economy means fewer restaurant steaks being sold.
• Black ink! Kansas St. livestock economist Darrel Mark says the 50% drop in corn prices make it possible to put cattle on feed with a positive breakeven. While stars must all line up economically, he pencils out $65 per head with a 650 lb. steer and $20 per head profit with an 850 lb. steer. http://www.lmic.info/memberspublic/InTheCattleMarket.html
• Darrel Mark says the Nov. Cattle on Feed data indicated heavy yearlings were more profitable and lightweight calves should be backgrounded and finished as yearlings. But he says the drop in corn prices has boosted the incentive to put calves on feed earlier.
• Sharpen your pencil, and save on crop budgets with generic herbicides, say NE weed specialists. The active ingredients are the same, but the inactive ingredients are different, and could affect performance. They report Roundup WeatherMax sold for $93/gal. while generic glyphosate with a surfactant sold for $42/gal. Even with a lower rate of 22 oz rather than 32 oz per acre, the Roundup WeatherMax is $16/acre compared to $10.50/acre for generic glyphosate. The generic product can create a $5.50/acre savings.
• Weed specialists at NE found few differences among glyphosate brands, but say some differences may be evident with difficult to control weeds and in dry conditions. They say, "Herbicide rate, environmental factors and costs will play a larger role than brand name in product selection." Some brands had differences within a given rate.
• Weed specialists at Iowa State found few differences with generic metolachlor in a comparable study. "If the differences in inactive ingredients are considered, the generic products will work fine," according to weed specialist Bob Hartzler.
• Waterhemp is becoming more resistant to herbicides that are in the PPO inhibitor category, and IL Extension agronomist Matt Montgomery suggests that if waterhemp has survived both a glyphosate spray and a PPO inhibitor application, then use whatever means necessary to eliminate the weeds, such as cultivation or a weed hook.
• Are you converting CRP to cropland? MO agronomist Travis Harper says that requires extensive planning to overcome some of the problems that will appear:
  1) CRP is prone to erosion, and erosion rates will return when tillage returns.
  2) If no-till is not possible, leave waterways and field borders undisturbed.
  3) A thick mat of vegetation has developed and will hold moisture & diseases.
  4) Most of the plants in CRP are perennials, and will re-grow after tillage.
  5) CRP provided a home for field mice and voles which will eat seed corn.
  6) CRP vegetation can be controlled with herbicide, burning, & mowing.
• Soybean rust was not an issue this year, but why not? Darren Mueller at Iowa St. says when spring became summer in the South, all of its overwintering locations petered out. He says the crop was harvested in Mexico and it did not build up as it did in 2007. So the hurricanes came north to the Cornbelt empty-handed as far as soybean rust is concerned.
• Do traits mean higher corn yields? Not always, say OSU agronomists, who analyzed their variety plots. Seven of the top 10 yielding hybrids were triple or quad stacks, and one was a single trait. Two of the top 10 were conventional non-transgenic hybrids. Among the bottom ten yielding hybrids, eight of them have triple stacked traits.
• Mark your calendar (#1) for a Midwestern tillage seminar focused on multiple topics, including soil effects of long term strip and no-till, controlled traffic, managing weed resistance in strip and no-till systems, along with carbon sequestration. It will be 1/29 at Kishwaukee College at Malta, IL. Details: web.extension.uiuc.edu/rockfordcenter .

• "A waiting game" is the description of the commodities market given by Kansas St. Extension's Mike Woolverton. He says there is support for commodity prices on both the supply and demand side, but the constant news of a weak economy, falling stock markets, tight credit, bankruptcies, and bailouts are overwhelming. Read his newsletter at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp
• Corn supplies are adequate, but not excessive, says Woolverton, but he says there is an uncertainty for the demand created by the livestock industry. The 7-10% US production cutback parallels the expected reduction in consumer demand because of the recession. He believes corn will soon become the feed of choice as feed wheat supplies diminish.
• Soybean supplies are tight and Brazilian crops are smaller says Woolverton, who also quotes market analysts that soybeans are currently oversold. He says exports have been brisk, China has been a big buyer, and Japan has returned to importing US soybeans.
• A market recovery may not happen until after the first of the year says the Kansas St. economist. But he says the speed of the Obama administration in appointing its officials will be an advantage to help the financial markets settle down as soon as possible. He says commodities will be helped when the stock market bottoms and investors return.
• "Are you storing corn and hoping?" asks MO Extension specialist Melvin Brees, and if so, is it because of market signals or wishful thinking? Brees says March futures offer a 17¢ premium over December, and that can be eliminated in a single day. But he says watch the basis. The river basis is weak because of soft export demand, but the interior basis is stronger because of ethanol demand, giving mixed signals in the corn market.
• US and world corn stocks are tight, says Brees, the least in the US since '95-'96 and a significant volume of 2008 corn remains unharvested with quality deteriorating. He says the declining stocks indicate more acreage is needed in 2009, but since many farmers are still trying to harvest 2008 corn, it will be hard to get fall fieldwork completed in time.
• And what about soybeans? MO Extension's Melvin Brees says export demand remains strong, but with only a 9¢ spread from January to March there is little opportunity to capture storage returns. He says the basis is currently stronger than typical, and the downtrend in futures dampens his incentive to store beans. Read his newsletter: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf
• If cash is needed, and storage is not providing returns, Brees says sell the cash and buy either futures or options if you believe the market will trend higher. You would still be at risk of meeting margin calls on futures contracts and paying for option premiums.
• The stronger dollar and evaporation of Chinese demand for pork have cut potential pork profits to the bone, says Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt. The $23 collapse in the hog market from Aug. to Nov. parallels the $25 collapse in 1998, the result of demand. But Hurt says recession-conscious consumers will shift from beef to lower priced pork. Read his newsletter: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/112408.html .
• Purdue's Chris Hurt expects the 2-3% cut in pork production to push prices above the $48 live price in 2008, and into the low to mid-$50 range by mid 2009. At the same time Hurt believes 2008 cost of production at $53 will average $46 to $48 for 2009, leaving a $14 per head profit. Despite the uncertainties of demand, Hurt says hedging lean hog futures and feed now for 2009 will provide profit opportunities for pork producers.
• MO livestock economist Ron Plain expects the IA-MN negotiated price per carcass cwt to be $67 to $72 for 2009. He says the first quarter will average $58-$63, second quarter $70-$75, third quarter $73-$78, and $66-$71 in the fourth quarter of 2009. He says the market dynamics are fewer farrowings, strong export demand, weak domestic demand. On a live hog basis in the Iowa-southern Minnesota market, Plain anticipates the average annual price range of $51 to $55 per cwt for 2009. That would also be slightly above the projected price of $48 to $49 in 2008 and the actual average price of $47.05 in 2007.
• A livestock gas tax could be in the offing according to Ohio State's weekly beef newsletter at: http://fairfield.osu.edu/ag/beef/beef.html . It says Nov. 28 is the deadline for comments to the federal EPA about controlling greenhouse gases, including methane produced by livestock. The EPA's proposed fee is $43.75/ton for emitting greenhouse gases, which would be $175 per dairy cow, $87.50 per beef cow, and $20 per hog. The rulemaking notice apparently slipped by many farm lobbyists, but is not yet law.
• When buying or selling hay a quality test will indicate the true value. A sampling probe should be used, with cores taken from the butt end of 20 bales between the twine, and take 2-3 cores from large round bales. Ensure a half pound of sample material is taken, sealed in a plastic bag, protected from the sun, and sent as soon as possible to the testing lab. Labs, probes, and more information are at: http://www.foragetesting.org/ .
• If seed purchase decisions have not been finalized, confirm your thinking at one of the seed variety test websites operated by the Land Grant Universities in the Cornbelt. Find the link to your state's tests at: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/pcpp/UCTA/index.html .
• Consider both '07 and '08 seed performance suggests Phil DeVillez, head of Purdue's crop performance program. He says always look at multi-year data, since a top-yield hybrid in 2008 might have been low in the ratings for 2007. DeVillez says, "We've had two extremely different years and if a variety is at the top in terms of performance in 2007 and 2008, then you can feel confident about it being a good variety for the area."
• Seed selection decisions should include pest resistance, as well as yield and other performance factors. IL Extension pathologist Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing suggests:
  1) If you don't have an insect problem in your area, paying for that trait is a waste.
  2) Purchase seed that carries resistance to diseases that have been diminishing yields.
  3) Most corn hybrids resist common leaf blights, but are not resistant to every blight.
  4) If you have a soil-borne soybean disease or SCN, plant seed that is resistant to them.
• "Insects do drown," says Purdue entomologist John Obermeyer, who tells the tale of mama corn rootworm beetle who lays her eggs in cool and moist soil, but which will also be the last to warm up and dry out in the spring, subjecting her offspring to a threatened childhood. Obermeyer says the impact of drenching rain can be significant if timing is correct. Eggs can survive submerged, but newly hatched larvae need air within a day.
• Did you have soybean aphid or spidermite problems in 2008? Purdue entomologist John Obermeyer says not everyone did, and they appeared somewhat unexpectedly. But Obermeyer says scouting paid dividends due to the great variability in aphids and mites. He says the high commodity prices took the question out of whether or not to spray.
• Obermeyer says the most interesting insect in 2008 in his opinion were the worms feeding on ears of corn. Fields were planted late; ears developed late, and he says that set the stage for a larger than expected problem with ear worms and western bean cutworms. He says Herculex corn had a better record against the latter than did YieldGard hybrids.
• If you want high corn yields, Tony Vyn and Terry West at Purdue have some ideas, which are conclusions from their tillage trials in high quality soils. The details are here: http://extension.entm.purdue.edu/pestcrop/2008/issue26/index.html
  1) Tillage system choice has less consequence than other management factors.
  2) Hybrid selection, optimum plant density, & fertility levels are more important.
  3) Conventional tillage is not essential for achieving high corn yields.
  4) In corn after corn, fall strip tillage is preferred over chisel plowing
  5) Crop rotation still boosts corn yields and, if soil quality, drainage, management, etc. are equal, yield-contest aspiring farmers should still avoid continuous corn.
• A "full steam ahead" approach to biomass production to refine for ethanol may not be the best approach says IL soil scientist Michelle Wander, writing in Science magazine. She says it may help control problems with nitrogen, but the impact is not known if marginal land is converted to biomass production instead of more productive land.
• Try out these on your friends. MO livestock economist Ron Plain's market facts:
  1) The smallest 75% of U.S. hog farms produced 1% of the hogs.
  2) The largest 1% of U.S. hog farms produced 75% of the hogs.
  3) Since 1930 the sow inventory has declined 42%, but pork production rose 221%
  4) Jan-Sept pork production was 17.25 bil. lbs, up 9.3% over Jan-Sept of 2007.
  5) Jan-Sept pork exports were 3.62 bil. lbs, up 65.8% over Jan-Sept of 2007.
  6) Jan-Sept pork imports were 614 mil. lbs, down 16.6% from Jan-Sept of 2007.
  7) Pork, beef, and poultry production will all drop in 2009, the first time since 1973.
  8) In 2007, swine herds with 1-99 head averaged 7.53 pigs per litter.
  9) In 2007, swine herds with 5,000+ head averaged 9.28 pigs per litter.

• Lower oil prices equals lower ethanol prices equals lower corn prices. IL Extension's Darrel Good says corn prices have a 90% correlation to ethanol prices, and ethanol has dropped from $2.82 per gal. in July to $1.57 last week. Corn prices are down as a result his newsletter says. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/111708.html
• Lower hog prices equals lower corn prices also, says Darrel Good, who says that means a reduced demand for corn as livestock feed. Once $85 last summer, lean hog futures are now $62. He says despite lower corn costs, lower hog prices imply more liquidation. Similarly, cattle futures that were once $117 are now near $89 with feedlots emptying.
• Compared to 2007, corn exports have turned inside out, says Good. The record 2.4 bil. bu. of exports last year resulted from two years of short crops and the low value of the US dollar which made exports attractive. He says feed supplies have increased, demand has weakened, the dollar has strengthened, and 2008-09 exports will be closer to 1.9 bil.
• Will corn prices increase? Darrel Good says despite some optimism for higher prices, he says it is not clear where the market fundamentals will improve to push up prices, and he adds it will still take recovery in the financial and energy markets to achieve that.
• "It is kind of a strange situation when you have to hope for an increase in the price of oil to hope for an increase in the price of corn," says MI Extension's Jim Hilker. "Given lower oil prices, I suspect it will take a drop in input prices, to make the 2009 corn crop profitable. We would expect to see at least the nitrogen prices to drop off sharply." His focus is on net, not price. Read more at: https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
• Will corn and beans fight for 2009 acreage? That is a question that MSU's Jim Hilker asks, "We will need 5-6 million more corn acres in 2009 versus 2008. Prospects on input prices will play a big role, in addition to output prices, but that is always the case. Perceived corn versus soybean yield potential may be the harder call to make. Corn yields relative to bean yields seem to be improving quicker, and seem to be less risky."
• Wheat did not have to bid as high to keep new crop acreage, says Hilker because of less demand. He says lack of market convergence remains an issue. "In the US soft red wheat sector we still have the disconnect between cash and futures. And while forced load out would tie the two back together, it is unclear how much futures would come down versus cash up, but at least we would have a price risk management tool again."
• The Nov bean contract expired Nov. 14 ranging from a low of $6.23 in mid-Jan. 2006 to a high of $16.31 on July 3, 2008. MN Extension's Ed Usset says the $10+ spread may be the largest spread ever for soybeans between the life of contract high and low.
• Beans have not lost as much value as corn, says Purdue economist Chris Hurt because beans have more "star power." He says soybeans do not have as many negative fundamentals as does corn, although both are subject to the financial crisis and the value of the dollar. But he says soybeans are not hit as hard by declining crude oil prices.
• Exports are helping the soybean market, says Hurt, which are 15% above year ago levels. And he says if the current pace holds, USDA may have to set a higher target. One of the positives is the fact that China is the top soybean customer and it is holding $2 trillion in foreign currency, enabling it to buy in an economy where cash is king.
• Save $8-10 per acre by eliminating one field pass says NE Extension's Gary Zoubek. He suggests forgetting about shredding stalks, since NE planter researchers found no advantage to removing corn stalk residue if the planter is weighted and downpressure springs are used to keep the proper planting depth. More: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
• If you buy the new Roundup Ready 2 Yield seed beans, you are buying a bag with a specific number of beans inside, not bags with a uniform weight. That is the industry trend, says MO Extension's Bill Wiebold, who says you will get 140,000 beans, but not necessarily 50 lbs. of seed. Wiebold says a seed size of 2,800/lb. is about average, but seed size will vary by variety and will vary due to environmental conditions.
• The constant number of seeds per bag will not be welcomed by those farmers who buy smaller seeds, believing they will be able to plant more acres with fewer bags of seed beans. Those farmers may resist the change, says MO agronomist Bill Wiebold. But he says knowing the number of seeds per bag allows more precise calibration of planters.
• The size of seed beans is not as important as yield potential and pest resistance says Wiebold, who says seed size does not affect emergence percentage, seedling vigor, or yield potential. But he says smaller seeds have less reserves, and planting depth is more critical. More: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/fullissue/v18n17.pdf
• When soybean prices rose, did you feel more comfortable about applying fungicide to soybeans to prevent Asian rust? Or was the reason for more fungicide the fact that it has rained more in the past several years and ASR spores may have had a greater chance of survival? Iowa St. researchers believe the latter is the reason for more fungicide sprays.
• Iowa State's fungicide study found "that use of fungicide as a preventative measure can increase yields in a season when disease pressure is moderate or high. In such a season, many fungicide treatments yielded better and a few treatments increased yield over 10 bu." Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/1117yang.htm
• Foliar fungicide studies in Ohio had highly variable yields across several test plots, and treatments. Researchers recommend that foliar diseases in soybeans should be monitored at the R2 (full flower) stage to determine if fungicide applications may be profitable. They say if bean prices are close to application costs, then the application is warranted.
• Oh, you didn't know it is more rainy? That is the data collected by Iowa State weather guru Elwynn Taylor. Taylor says 100 years ago, it rained an average of 75 days per year, but that number increased to 100 days per year by the year 2000. Since 2004, Taylor says the number of rainy days in the Cornbelt has exceeded 120 days per year.
• The days may be numbered for soybean aphids. OSU researchers have piggybacked on a 2004 IL discovery of a gene that makes aphids not want a certain soybean plant. The IL gene was called Rag1, but when it was placed in soybeans grown in Ohio, the aphids were not driven off. Apparently, the Ohio aphid family was genetically different, but gene Rag2 successfully causes the Ohio aphids to migrate to other plants or die in place.
• Aphid populations in Ohio were low in 2008, predicted by a low population count late in 2007. But OSU entomologists express uncertainty about 2009 because their counts were high in the fall, yet the colonies overwintering on buckthorn are non-existent and they say they have not yet found a single egg for soybean aphids where expected.
• This is the best time of year to walk your fields and collect soil samples to determine the seriousness of your Soybean Cyst Nematode problem. The colder soil temperatures means the SCN eggs are in the cyst and they are readily countable for analysis. Today:
  1) Select a 10 acre plot to test, and walk a W or Z pattern collecting soil samples.
  2) Sample the soil with a shovel or probe about 8 inches down in 20 locations.
  3) Mix the samples and fill a one pint zip lock bag with a composite of the soil.
  4) Call your local Extension office for instructions to submit the sample without delay.
• European corn borers were unevenly distributed in 2008, say IL Extension specialists. NW IL which is usually a corn borer haven, had very few; and the southern third of the state had the most. Specialists suggest Bt corn use has been the main cause for declining populations, but heavy rainfalls are being thanked for increasing their 2008 mortality.
• Net returns to crop-share landlords, to no surprise, have increased over the past 10 years, including dips in 2001 & 2002. However, IL Extension economist Dale Lattz says net returns for 2006 & 2007 have been significantly above previous years' returns. His study of only IL farms warns, "Farmland with the highest net return per acre does not necessarily have the highest return on investment." He says future returns on crop-share farms will largely depend on corn and soybean prices and trends in the cost of inputs.
• Hog contracts based on the futures market have paid better than contracts keyed to the spot market say MO livestock economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain. For late Oct that represented $18.26 more per hog, and for early Nov. the difference was $31.40. They say on average, the futures market has offered a much better price since late 2007. Within the past month, they say 12-15% of producers use futures-based production contracts.

The Logan County date for Private Pesticide Applicator Training and Testing will be Tuesday, December 2, 2008. The session will be held at the Lincoln Recreation Center. Training will begin at 8:30 a.m., and testing should be concluded by 12:30 a.m. Once again, by statewide policy, there will be a $30 fee to attend the training. This is in addition to the license fee required by the Illinois Department of Agriculture. If you are interested in taking the exam only, and not attending the training session, please contact the office for the arrival time and to register separately. The other option is to take the exam by appointment in Springfield.

This session will allow training and testing for private applicators only. Attendees who successfully pass the exam would be allowed to purchase and apply restricted use products on ground they own or operate. Restricted use products include atrazine and most rootworm insecticides.

Pre-registration is required. Payment may be made at the door. Registration is limited. Online registration is also available from the home page for the Logan County site. If you are unable to attend our session, here is the web address of the entire schedule http://www.pesticidesafety.uiuc.edu/training/training.html .

• Monday's USDA crop report for Nov. was a minor adjustment pushing the corn crop 13 mil. bu. higher compared to Oct. estimates. Ethanol use of corn was raised 26 mil. bu., while feed use dropped 25 mil. bu. Exports will be 50 mil. bu. less, down to 1.9 bil., which is 536 mil. bu. less than 2007 exports. Ending stocks rose a bit to 1.124 bil. bu.
• The Nov. crop report pushed soybean production down by 17 mil. bu. and USDA cut the domestic crush estimate by 15 mil. bu., leaving ending stocks and exports unchanged. USDA adjusted state average yields slightly, pushing IN up 2 bu., IL up 1 bu., and cutting 1 bu. in MN and NE, 2 bu. in ND, OH, and WI, and 3 bu. in SD.
• Until the final report is released in Jan., IL Extension's Darrel Good says prices will be a function of So. American production prospects, the pace of consumption, and the impact on overall demand by the financial, currency, and energy markets. He says they must recover "to fuel a meaningful post-harvest recovery of crop prices." Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/111008.html
• There will be low stocks-to-use ratios for corn and beans in the coming year observes Chad Hart at Iowa State. He says corn ending stocks will put the ratio at 9%, well below the 15.2% average of the past 16 years, and the soybean stocks-to-use ratio will be 7%, which Chad Hart says is also below the 16 year average of 10.8% for soybeans. More: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/info/info2008/S811.pdf
• To help your marketing plan, Hart says both corn and beans have price strength going into next summer. The Dec to July carry in the corn market is 42 cents, and the Nov to July carry in the bean market is 37 cents. However, he says commercial storage costs and interest will consume about all of the carry and expected basis improvement. As a result, Hart says paper ownership of the crop looks more attractive than physical ownership.
• Despite the cut in bean production, Mike Woolverton at Kansas State expects USDA to cut more in Jan. He says that will be bullish, given the potential for Brazilian soybean production estimates to also be reduced. Woolverton says farmers there are curtailing some planting because of the difficulty in getting credit to buy soybean crop inputs. Read more at: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp .
• Woolverton also takes note of ocean freight rates, which indicates weak global demand and says they have fallen to record low levels. He says tight credit could be part of the problem since exporters may have had trouble borrowing money to buy grain and ship it abroad, as well as some reluctance to accept letters of credit from overseas banks.
• Tight grain stocks will support prices, says Extension's Alan May at South Dakota State, who says, "If demand does not fall off significantly between now and the growing season next year supplies will remain tight until harvest of 2009. These more traditional supply and demand factors still should provide a foundation for buyers and sellers even though potential price rallies and price declines could be as pronounced as the price movement in the last year." Read more: http://econ.sdstate.edu/Extension/corn.htm
• Alan May agrees with his colleagues that prices will eventually be driven by market fundamentals, "Once buyers and sellers begin to take a harder look at market fundamentals, it seems apparent that they should realize that current price levels do not necessarily reflect how strong those supply and demand fundamentals really are. If this would be the case, then one might expect a bidding war for acres to begin for the 2009 cropping year." He says it will take time to shore up the US and global economy.
• In the meantime, Alan May says farmers will find conflicting crop budgets and marketing plans, "In addition, while the cost of inputs such as fuel and fertilizer has fallen, land values/rents along with other costs may not keep pace with the current decline in corn prices. This means that it may be more difficult to evaluate breakeven and profitability due to the more pronounced volatility in input costs and corn prices."
• Cash lease provisions were loosened in the 2008 Farm Bill says MN ag economist Gary Hachfeld. Previously, direct payments had to be split between operator and landowner, but he says the County FSA committee has the authority to review a lease and payments will not have to be split, if the committee determines the flexible lease is a cash lease.
• Hachfeld says, a flexible lease under the 2002 Farm Bill that allowed base rents to be adjusted up or down by yield or price, required the direct payments to be shared because it was determined to be a shared lease. He says the 2008 Farm Bill eliminates that requirement, if the FSA committee considers it to be a "reasonable" base rent being paid.
• If you are budgeting, check out the Nebraska Extension retail price list of herbicides for 2009 along with the comparative price from 2008. About the only herbicides without a higher price are the ones just now being introduced. See: http://cropwatch.unl.edu/
• Diesel fuel prices should be lower each month for the next year, compared to that month a year earlier. That is the estimation of Kansas St. economist Kevin Dhuyvetter, based on crude oil futures. You'll pay 11 to 18% less through February, then beginning with spring tillage season, diesel prices will range 28% to 40% less than 2008 price levels.
• Corn quality is different this year because of the growing season, says grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh at Iowa State, and he says breakage will increase, with a subsequent increase in the amount of BCFM. Hurburgh says discounts usually begin at 5% BCFM for #2 corn, and it has not been a major issue in recent years. However, he expects many elevators to be checking for BCFM this year due to breakage susceptibility.
• The increased potential for BCFM also raises another nasty issue, and Hurburgh says that is increased chances for mold that produce fumonisin, vomitoxin, and other toxins. Farmers pulling cores out of bins to improve quality, speed drying, and lower mold potential can usually sell BCFM for 50%-75% of the price of corn. Hurburgh says it can be used by ethanol plants, but farmers should not be surprised at thorough mold testing.
• Ethanol plants have seen their economics reverse, and now the DDGS co-product may help many of them keep their bottom line in the black, says Purdue swine specialist Scott Radcliffe. But he quickly adds the fact that DDGS nutritional content is different from plant to plant. He suggests future ethanol plant profitability may be keyed upon customizing DDGS for individual livestock species, since they are digested differently.
• Corn drydown rates can vary widely, depending on hybrid, but also nitrogen deficiency and drought conditions can be blamed, say Ohio State specialists. They also blame premature plant death, stalk rots, and severe stalk lodging for grain moisture variation. Find more drydown information: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/topfarmer/update.asp .
• Winter weather should be close to normal, says Ohio State meteorologist Jim Noel. He looked back at his records for winters with minimum sunspot activity and neutral La Nina and El Nino conditions and found that temperatures will be close to normal, and trends for precipitation are near normal for the northern Cornbelt and transitioning to below normal in the southern part of the Cornbelt. Here are temperature and precipitation maps:
  1) http://agcrops.osu.edu/images/newsimages/Sunspot_Min_ENSO_neutral_Temp.gif
  2) http://agcrops.osu.edu/images/newsimages/Sunspot_Min_ENSO_neutral_Precip.gif
• Farmgate milk prices have dropped 20% in the past 2 months and IL Extension dairy specialist Mike Hutjens anticipates another $2 drop in futures prices in 2009, because of the economic downturn. He says higher feed costs are contributing to a shift from 2007 profitability to a $2.25 loss for every 100 lbs of milk produced in 2008. Hutjens says consumers have not seen any reduction in prices for milk or other dairy products.
• Hutjens suggests some cost cutting: Look at by-product feeds to lower feed costs, along with forage quality and supply. Dairy managers need to maintain high milk production which favors efficiency and profitability. Avoid making economically bad decisions such as pulling out minerals and purchased feeds from the herd's diet or feeding less.
• The swine breeding herd for both the US and Canada is down 3.7% compared to October 2007 levels, with Canada alone down 8.3%, says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes. He says, "A good start, but with productivity growth, it is not nearly enough decline to get production in line with demand and profitably for producers."
• Regarding exchange rates, he says, "The current rate shows 8% strength in the US dollar compared to the Canadian dollar. This is not good news for US hog producers. (Southbound hog numbers increase.) However, the Japanese yen has strengthened 5% in the last month compared to the US dollar. This is good news for pork exports to Japan."

• Compared to October when investors sold commodities to raise cash, fundamentals in the grain markets seemed to have regained control. That's the thinking of Darrel Good, IL Extension Specialist, who says corn and bean prices are now influenced by financial, energy, and currency markets, as well as export business. Read his latest newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/110308.html .
• Good says soybean exports have been 14% larger than year ago levels, with the help of a 16% increase in business with China. However, the bloom may fade since Chinese purchases are expected to be less than last year, and US soybean exports are expected to be 12% less than last year, by the time the year ends. While corn exports have been weak, prices have responded to USDA's reduction in 2008 corn production estimates.
• Monday Nov. 10 is the date for the next USDA crop production report, which Darrel Good says will refine yield estimates. Based on the last crop condition report, Good says beans should average 42.7 bu. ave., 3 bu. more than the USDA Oct. estimate. He says the last rating for corn indicates a 154.4 bu., compared to USDA's 153.9 bu. estimate.
• If USDA's crop estimates grow, Good expects a slow recovery in grain prices. But, a lower production estimate would support prices somewhat. He says to get a stronger recovery, then financial and energy fundamentals will have to create additional demand.
• Regarding energy fundamentals, Iowa State's Chad Hart says the ethanol industry is still growing, but the pace has slowed. While lower corn prices mean lower production costs for ethanol plants, plants are also impacted by lower ethanol prices because the motoring public is driving fewer miles, has more fuel efficient cars, and needs less fuel.
• Chad Hart says ethanol will need 4 bil. bu. of corn, and livestock feeders will need 5.3 bil. bu., which is up 100 mil. bu. from September. He says the reason for the increased demand is due to the erosion of corn prices, and that reversed USDA's demand estimates. http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo110108.pdf
• Fear not, agriculture is not facing a return to the tough times of the 1980's, say Purdue economists Mike Boehlje and Chris Hurt. That is when high prices in the 1970's quickly changed to a recession and a myriad of farm failures. They say the difference is the current very low interest rates, along with very low debt being carried by farmers. Read more at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/news/financial/crisis_return_80s.pdf .
• The Purdue economists make a number of comparisons of now and the 80's economy:
  1) In the 80's farmers had $22 of debt for each $100 in assets, and today debt is $9.
  2) Before the 80's farm income averaged $51.8 bil. per year, now it is $63 bil. per year.
• But what about tomorrow? The Purdue economists say even with lower incomes, fewer debt servicing and loan default problems are expected. That means fewer forced sales of farmland, but the first stage of a downward adjustment is no sales, and they say that is happening now. But they say, "The prospects of forced farm asset sales compounding the asset depreciation problem are much less likely now." (Compared to the 1980's)
• If farm input suppliers are asking for pre-payment before supplies are ordered and delivered, Penn State Extension specialist John Berry suggests farmers consider the risk:
  1) Spread risk by buying inputs in increments, so if prices decline you can take advantage
  2) Be certain of the solvency of the company with whom you are doing business.
• Calling the 2008 growing season, "on-and-off, unevenly distributed poor conditions," IL Extension specialist Emerson Nafziger is amazed at the 45 bu. bean and 177 corn yields, and says, "The only reasonable explanation for such yields is that the season was much extended, with maturity occurring weeks to a month or more later than average, and a great deal of grain filling after September 1, during the weeks before maturity."
• Nafziger admits, "The predictions I made in June about how crops would respond to late planting were completely inaccurate as a result of the unusual season." And he says that is a dilemma because, "If such a season will never happen again, then including it in the database means less accuracy in future predictions of planting date effects."
• Corn kernels are different this year, according to Iowa State grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh. They are wet, soft, and have more soft white starch. That means lower test weight, and reduced storability because of more opportunity for mold to invade the kernel. He says you will also find that it takes more energy to dry softer corn kernels. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/1105hurburg.htm .
• By taking 8 to 10 percentage points of moisture out of the corn, Hurburgh warns if you are drying it with heat the kernels will become brittle, more sensitive to breakage, and the amount of fines will increase. The breakage will occur when it is handled, from the dryer to the bin, and out of the bin to the elevator. He says avoid corn temperatures above 140F, and let it cool slowly in a bin, instead of in the dryer, increasing dryer capacity.

• USDA has revised its October Crop Report reducing corn acreage by 1.2%, soybean acreage by 1.4%, and dropping acreage also for canola, sunflowers, and edible beans, with an increase in sorghum acres of 2.5%. USDA said the adjustment was necessitated by failure of the FSA and NASS computer software to reconcile acreage information.
• Revised corn data projects 78.177 mil. harvested acres, 153.9 bu. average yield and 12.033 bil. bu. production. Planted and harvested acreage dropped 1 mil., and yield declined 0.1 bu. USDA did not adjust any projected use, but reduced ending stocks from 1.154 bil. to 1.088 bil. bu. and added 5¢ to the average farm price, now $4.25 to $5.25. Find details at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest-revision.txt .
• Revised soybean data projects 74.374 mil. harvested acres, 39.5 bu. average yield and 2.938 bil. bu. production. Planted acreage and harvested acreage both dropped 1.1 mil., but yield estimates were left unchanged. A 30 mil. bu. drop in exports was the only adjustment to use, with ending stocks lowered from 220 to 205 mil. bu. USDA added 10¢ to the season average price estimate which now ranges $9.70 to $11.20 per bu.
• While futures prices have fallen, the basis has narrowed says IL Extension's Darrel Good. He points to an anecdotal cash price that was 40¢ under Dec futures, which was 20¢ higher than recent fall delivery prices, but still 20¢ under year ago levels. His cash bean example is up 60¢ from recent bids, and 15¢ stronger than cash bean prices in late 2007. Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/102708.html
• Darrel Good also says spreads in the bean market have also narrowed to create a carry in the market. The result of the carry and the narrow basis is a return to storage, if farmers can store beans. Good says the return is minimal, and calculated a 50¢ return for 8 months of storage, if summer 2009 basis levels narrowed to 10¢ under. That works out to be a 17¢ return to storage, because 6% interest on $8.30 soybeans would cost 33¢.
• Returns to storage for corn are a slightly better calculates Darrel Good. The Dec to July futures spread is 37¢ putting cash prices at 77¢ under July. If the basis returns to typical levels, he says that puts a return to storage at 62¢ for corn stored 8 months. With 13¢ interest, the true return to storage would be 49¢, even covering commercial rates.
• Update your marketing plan based on the stronger basis, suggests Good. If prices recover as expected over the next six months, then storage would pay off. He says holding corn may be preferable, but at current scenarios, the soybean market may only reward those with a basis contract or a hedge, which are cheaper than storing beans.
• Was the revised USDA report a turning point in the market meltdown? Kansas State marketing specialist Mike Woolverton thinks, "During the summer and early fall, commodity prices have been beaten down by outside influences such as the precipitous oil price drop, a tremendous hedge and index fund sell-off, the credit market freeze, overseas buyers waiting out the down price trends, and the global economic downturn. Now, maybe buyers and sellers can concentrate on supply and demand fundamentals."
• Woolverton says market fundamentals are stronger than prices reflect. He says the world will soon turn to US corn and wheat, and demand will strengthen. He says ending stocks are low by historic standards, the battle for acres will heat up, input costs have to fall more or fertilizer sales will weaken, exports have held up despite credit conditions.
• Look at South America, says Woolverton, who says crops have struggled due to bad weather, wheat in both Argentina and Australia is droughty, financial problems in Brazil have restricted soybean planting, and Argentine farmers are mad at their export taxes.
• Will credit markets and ethanol expansion determine 2009 corn and soybean acreage? Ohio St. marketing specialist Matt Roberts believes ethanol expansion will slow, but he is uncertain how much. Estimating weaker exports and more ethanol demand, Roberts says there may be a need for 2-3 mil. more acres of corn than in 2008. Roberts says soybean acreage in 2009 could be reduced by 1.5 mil. without much difficulty in the market.
• Will there be more profit in planting corn or soybeans in 2009? Declining commodity prices and rising input costs have underscored the need for precise calculations, but as grain prices potentially recover and some input costs soften, periodic calculations may be required as you implement your marketing plan. Consult the crop enterprise budgets offered by Ohio State at: http://aede.osu.edu/Programs/FarmManagement/Budgets .
• Matt Roberts at Ohio State says those budgets show variable costs of $450-$500 per acre to plant corn, and a breakeven price of $4.50 that includes returns to labor and land. For soybeans, the variable cost is $240-$270 with a breakeven inclusive market price of $9-$10. Roberts says unless something changes, he cannot see increased corn acreage. Read more: http://aede.osu.edu/people/roberts.628/extension/newsletter/08v.pdf .
• Be a church mouse and listen to Purdue economist Allan Gray's advice to agribusiness:
  1) If you have a high-priced fertilizer inventory, your tendency is to cover your costs. But farmers know prices have declined, and they will look to a lower priced competitor.
  2) If you have pre-sold nitrogen at high prices, you'll face pressure to give farmers relief.
  3) Elevators earlier this year had to pay out high margin calls, and lower prices are bringing that cash back home. Keep the cash if possible for your financial reserves.
  4) Ag lenders are tightening their credit, and farmers who do not get needed operating credit will be asking ag retailers to help finance the crop inputs needed next spring.
  5) Elevators considering use of their additional working capital to enter the credit business should be diligent in understanding credit worthiness and one's ability to repay.
  6) Agribusiness should not lose focus of serving their best customers at the highest level.
• Wet and cold sums up 2008 weather say Iowa St. specialists, with the statewide accumulation of growing degree days 130 behind the average, and rainfall 7 in. more than average. Interestingly, 85% of that surplus 7 inches fell prior to June 12.
• "Run wide open and don't lift," says grain quality specialist Charles Hurburgh at Iowa State, addressing the need to get all grain out of the field as quickly as possible and deal with moisture issues in storage. Hurburgh says soybeans will not dry any further, and will only rise in moisture now and temperature variations will cause pods to split open.
• If you have wet corn, and lack of drying capacity, Hurburgh has several suggestions:
  1) Dry it to 17-18%, store it with airflow and cool it off, and moisture will drop to 15%.
  2) Dry it to 20%, cool it with aeration, hold it at 17-18%, dry it in the spring or sell it.
  3) Dry it to 20%, store it with aeration, return the batch to the dryer for more heat later.
• If grain drying is your priority, consider these money-savers for this year and next:
  1) Calibrate your grain moisture meter. Meter errors cause under- or over-drying.
  2) Clean grain to remove fines before drying. There's no need to dry unneeded materials.
  3) Full heat drying cuts energy use by 15%. In-bin (dryeration) cuts energy use by 25%.
  4) Add a stirring device to bin dryers to save 20-30% in drying costs.
  5) If you have perforated floors and aeration, combination drying will save 40-50%, if you dry to 20% moisture with high temperature drying and finish with ambient air.
• Soybean rust was found in McLean and Marshall Counties in Central IL, and Jackson and Union Counties in Southern IL, but so far those 4 are the only counties north of the Ohio River with confirmed cases of rust. http://sbr.ipmpipe.org/cgi-bin/sbr/public.cgi .
• If your 2009 bean fields are rife with purple deadnettle over the winter, you are also likely hosting soybean cyst nematode. SCN egg populations can increase 3-5 fold over the winter on purple deadnettle, a winter annual. Ohio State specialists recommend that it be controlled within four weeks of emergence, since SCN eggs will hatch in 4-5 weeks.
• Pork producers continue to send sows and gilts to market, reducing the breeding herd at a modest rate says MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes. He hopes by December the breeding herd will be 5% below last December. Without any demand loss, Grimes says the average cost producer should break even in 2009. He is predicting financial losses on market hogs in the first and fourth quarters and profits in the second and third quarters.
• Breakeven costs for cattle feeders are dropping according to the calculations of Kansas State livestock economist Jim Mintert. His newsletter says even though fed cattle prices are only $90, the recent decline in feeder calves and the 30% decrease in feed costs have pushed breakeven prices down sharply. He says low cost operators may see a profit.
• Cattlemen should be concerned about the risk of prussic acid forming in forage that has been damaged by frost, and the potential for poisoned livestock. The problem remains until sorghum, sudangrass, or sorghum-sudan forages wilt and dry. Prussic acid is fatal to cattle, and IL Extension crop specialist Robert Bellm says there is no immunity.

The 2008-2009 Agriculture and Natural Resources Newsletter for Logan County is online at http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/logan/agnews/ Of course, this is a work in progress, as details are just coming out on some of the winter meetings.

Of note are the Private Pesticide Applicator Training, with the only Logan County date set for December 2 at the Lincoln Rec Center, and the Cost of Operation rates from earlier this year.

• Is the market dominated by bad news? Not really, says MO Extension marketing specialist Melvin Brees, who outlines several positive developments in his newsletter: http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/farmers_corner/mktng_newsletter/CurrentDM.pdf
  1) Current prices discourage increased plantings in South America.
  2) Lower prices reduce feed costs and support continued strong feed use.
  3) World population and incomes suggest that food demand is solid.
  4) Lower prices and freight costs offset the negative impacts of a stronger dollar.
  5) While corn and soybean carryout is increasing, it remains below average.
  6) The 2008-09 corn stocks/use ratio is the lowest in more than 10 years.
  7) Lower fuel costs and fertilizer price weakness might offer some input cost relief.
  8) Higher crop prices may be needed to encourage 2009 crop production.
• "Market action this year has clearly demonstrated the importance of capturing profitable prices when they are offered," says MO Extension's Brees. He says for unpriced grain, "Market carry and basis gain potential suggest storage returns, but be aware that volatile price action can erase these returns in a single futures trading session." Brees says your assignment is to work on 2009 cash flow and a marketing plan.
• Corn storage is also the plan of Jim Hilker at Mich. State Extension. He says that is indicated by the basis and the spread between futures. "What it doesn't tell us, is whether to store it under a hedge, or store unpriced, ie, is the price going up down or up? As soon as I figure out what the oil price will do, I'll let you know what the corn price will do."
• Hilker feels sorry if you have unpriced wheat. "Futures have dropped as the world has learned it will have enough wheat, and with the drop in corn prices meaning the bid for land will not have to be as high. (Also) the basis is about a $1.00 weaker, $1.50 to $2.50."
• Regarding soybeans, Hilker says, "The problem here is that I would generally recommend a basis contract here if you wanted to stay in the market, when the market says it won't pay for storage, but here the basis may strengthen a bunch."
• The "new market territory" we entered two years ago is now in full force across the rest of the markets says So. Dakota State marketing specialist Alan May, who expects added uncertainty in coming months. He says, "All of these concerns about the economy still mean that your success boils down to applying sound risk management strategy to your business. Stay in front of the cost versus return aspect of your enterprises, evaluate constantly where your breakeven lies, and stay in close touch with your lender to make sure you are both on the same page in terms of credit availability and cost of that credit."
• Revenue Assurance is shaping up to make significant indemnity payments, but if the corn market goes up, the payment would decline, suggesting the necessity to buy a call option for "insurance insurance." K-State Extension's Art Barnaby says please consider:
  1) If the market continues to slide, your RA indemnity check would get larger.
  2) December calls are about to expire, so March calls are the best alternative.
  3) Sell back a March call by mid-November to minimize the loss of the time value.
  4) Don't even consider any of this, unless you are very familiar with options.
• If you farm for multiple landowners and make decisions for them on crop insurance, Kansas State risk management specialist Art Barnaby says land owners may be better off with APH policies than with a group policy that farm operators choose. A larger farming unit may benefit from GRP or GRIP, but does not protect the owners' small tracts. More: http://www.agmanager.info/crops/insurance/risk_mgt/rm_html08/AB_ra_pay.asp.
• If corn drydown seems to be slow, you are correct. Purdue agronomist Bob Nielsen says planting was late, cool temperatures slowed development, and maturity was delayed. http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/articles.08/GrainDrydown-1022.html .
  1) The later grain matures, the smaller the daily rate of drydown due to temperature.
  2) Harvest moistures are parallel to 2002, but drier than 2003, so not too unusual.
  3) Estimated drydown rates for 10 of the past 21 days have been .4 points or less per day.
  4) For corn that did not mature until late Sept., drydown time has been insufficient.
• The past several years have allowed natural field drydown for corn, but because of the late maturing crop, nearly every load will have to be artificially dried. There will not only be an energy cost to remove water, but there will also be a weight loss or shrinkage. If your elevator calculates a "pencil shrink," a good explanation of the process to improve your understanding is at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/NCH61.pdf .
• If the economy does not permit consumers to demand beef, supply fundamentals will have no impact on the beef market says Purdue economist Chris Hurt. He says cattle prices dropped 10% in the past month, impacting small feeding operations with unpriced feeder calves. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/102008.html .
• Hurt says the price decline was moderated by the 25% slide in corn prices and 20% fall in soybean meal prices in the past 3 weeks, easing the cost of production for livestock operators. Hurt tells cattle feeders to expect a recession and not a depression so don't panic. He says if you lock in bargain feed prices, also lock in your live cattle futures. He expects a $5-7 recovery in feeder calves and finished cattle moving into the low $90's.
• Cattle economist Dillon Feuz at Utah State says tight credit may be a problem for cattlemen with excess red ink. "Cattle feeders have generally lost money the last 2 years and based on current prices many cow-calf producers are likely to lose money this year. You will all likely need more operating money to work with, and if this financial crisis doesn't get solved, you may have a difficult time finding banks to loan you money."
• Cash rents are rising, and pasture rental agreements should be in writing just like cropland. "Cattlemen seem willing to pay more for the land, renting by the year, month or day; by the head and/or pair; or by the acre," says MO Extension's Wayne Prewitt. A sample lease is at: http://extension.missouri.edu/explorepdf/regpubs/ncr149.pdf .
• Exports are still contributing to the value of pork. MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says in August, exports were responsible for $47.90 per head, compared to $27.27 for August of 2007. While exports continue to rise, the rate of growth has slowed. He's expecting additional weakness in hog prices in coming weeks.
• Country of origin labeling (COOL) is now law, but Ohio State economist Ian Sheldon questions the economic logic and says it will drive up already high food prices. "If it's about safety, then perhaps we should be spending money on food safety." He says the across the board implementation means higher prices, whether consumers want it or not.
• Regardless of market prices, you cannot afford to lose a bin full of grain. NE ag engineer Tom Dorn says, "Mold growth is reduced below 50°F and nearly stops at 40°F. Mold activity is greatly reduced below 16% moisture content at all temperatures. The university therefore recommends bringing corn down to 15% moisture and cooling it to between 30°F and 40°F if the grain will be held into the winter months. If held into the summer months, corn should be dried to 14% by May. Soybean moisture content should be two points lower than corn, 13% for winter delivery and 12% for spring delivery."
• If you are planting wheat, agronomists at Ohio State say we are at the end of the period when there will be adequate tiller development before winter dormancy. Even if soybean harvest is late, late planted wheat is at a greater risk for poor stand establishment, winter kill, and spring heaving. They say if freezing is delayed, wheat may still do fairly well.
• For late planted wheat, increase your seeding rate up from the 1.2-1.6 mil. per acre to 1.6-2.0 mil. per acre. The latter would be 30 seeds per foot of 7.5 in. rows. Wheat at 13,000 seeds per lb. would require 123 lbs. to get 1.6 mil. and 154 lbs. for 2.0 mil.
• If a fire reaches your chemical storage, and firefighters pour on the water to douse the flames, will your insurance pay for the environmental clean-up? Purdue pesticide specialist Fred Whitford says most insurance policies have "environmental exclusions" which makes farmers liable for cleaning up chemical spills. Read his factsheet at: http://www.btny.purdue.edu/Pubs/PPP/PPP-49.pdf , then ask an insurance agent:
  1) What is the extent of coverage for environmental cleanup?
  2) How much environmental cleanup coverage do you have?
  3) Are you covered for spills from off-the-farm transportation accidents?
  4) What is required of me if there is a chemical spill?
  5) Are there any actions you might take that might void the policy?
  6) Are you covered for chemical spills resulting from temporary storage accidents?

Everyone knows the cost of nitrogen, well at least the fact it is priced similarly to gold (tons to ounces at least!) Here is the latest information concerning application recommendations based on price of commodity and price per pound of nitrogen:

http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1041

• How healthy is the farm economy? Many economists have been rhetorically asking that question in the wake of failures in the financial markets here and abroad. Credit has been drying up in non-agricultural markets, but the farm lending season is just around the corner, and will be coming at a time when commodity price strength is being questioned.
• In the past 90 days Dec corn has dropped over $3 and Nov beans have dropped over $6.50 per bu. and marketing specialist Mike Woolverton at Kansas State says supply and demand fundamentals had almost nothing to do with it. He says it was all a function of the financial markets, because of the housing bubble and the subprime mortgage issues.
• The financial companies which assumed the risk in those troubled areas also ran hedge funds and index funds, and Woolverton says when they were unable to liquidate mortgage assets, they had to get cash by offsetting futures and options contracts at large losses. That took billions of dollars out of the commodity market, reducing grain prices.
• At the same time, USDA's stocks report found 83 mil. bu. more corn and 60 mil. bu. more soybeans than what the trade expected. Woolverton says that normally would not generate much concern, but at the time when money is being pulled out of commodities, the increased levels of grain stocks indicates the world economy is slowing down.
• The quarterly grain stocks report estimated corn stocks at 1.62 bil. bu., up 25% from year earlier levels, representing the old crop carryout. On-farm stocks totaled 500 mil. and off-farm stocks totaled 1.12 bil. bu., which was 33% more than 2007 levels.
• The quarterly grain stocks report estimated soybean stocks at 205 mil. bu., down 64% from year earlier levels, with 47 mil bu. on-farm and 158 mil. off-farm. USDA adjusted the 2007 soybean crop estimates by increasing production to 2.68 bil. bu., increasing planted acres to 64.7 mil., and raising the average yield by .5 bu. to 41.7 bu. per acre.
• Corn demand in the coming year will be increased by the Renewable Fuels Standard which continues to ratchet upward. Economist Chad Hart at Iowa State says 10.5 bil. gal. of biofuels are required in 2009, which will consume 3.6 bil. bu. from the 2008 crop and 4.1 bil. bu. from the 2009 crop to meet the demand for 12 bil. gal. of biofuels in 2010.
• Market dynamics include growth in biofuel production, livestock producers adjusting to higher crop prices, higher energy prices supporting biofuels, slow economy domestically and worldwide. Iowa State's Hart says that will keep volatility in the market. He's expecting 2009 corn and soybean prices to parallel 2008 prices of $5.50 and $12.25.
• Global demand for US pork is taking 18% of domestic production, up from 10% a year ago. And Purdue Extension economist Chris Hurt says that is the only reason hog prices were able to recover so sharply this year given the fact domestic production is 7% higher than 2007. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/092908.html .
• But brace yourself says Hurt because that foundation is cracking. China had taken 46% of the growth, but that began to drop even before the Olympics. Russia had taken 13% of the growth, but diplomatic conflicts could jeopardize that business. And Hurt says Russia is attempting to stimulate is own pork industry with government financial help.
• Chris Hurt says the Hogs & Pigs Report indicated higher weaning rates which will not mean a decline in production, despite a smaller breeding herd. With high feed costs, he expects more financial losses for pork producers in 2008. With projected prices in 2009, Hurt says producers could pay about $5.25 for corn and still break even.
• The quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report estimated the herd at 68.7 million, up 2%, but with the breeding herd down 2.6%, and farrowing intentions down 5.6%. Iowa State economists say production will remain above last year through the end of 2008, and 2009 production will decline throughout the year. Market prices are expected to stabilize. http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo100108.pdf
• Because of the delayed harvest, timing will be critical in the fall application of anhydrous ammonia. If the 4 inch soil temperature is below 60 degrees, application can begin, but only with the help of a nitrification inhibitor. If you are not using an inhibitor, do not apply anhydrous ammonia if the 4 inch soil temperature is above 50 degrees. Do not apply any to soils that have a high tendency toward leaching or excessive drainage.
• If you plan to apply manure, poultry litter, or other organic fertilizers because of the high cost of commercial fertilizer, remember their nitrogen source is uric acid and forms of ammonium that will volatilize and be lost into the atmosphere. IL Extension Specialist Fabian Fernandez urges incorporation of them into the soil to avoid volatilization. Read his newsletter on nitrogen at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1041 .
• The nitrogen rate calculator should be one of the tools on your computer desktop. Using your location, plus current prices for nitrogen and current prices for corn, it will guide your decision on the rate of nitrogen to apply that will give you the best financial return. Find it at: http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx .
• Between soybean harvest and wheat planting, squeeze in a fertilizer application on your wheat ground to help the crop get established and tiller before winter. Extension fertility specialist Fabian Fernandez says the 30 lb. per acre minimal amount is enough because more would create surplus vegetation and result in disease or lodging in the spring. He also says phosphorus will help. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1042 .
• Cost savings occurs with lesser tillage, say Iowa State specialists, who calculate 3-4 gal. of fuel per acre with conventional tillage plus planting and spraying. That compares to 1 gal. per acre for no-till operation. They express concern about tillage in wetter soils, resulting in compaction. Compaction in the top 3-6 inches is due to surface pressure and compaction below that level is primarily associated with axle weight.
• Preliminary results are being published from Univ. of IL test plots for corn rootworm control. Initial findings are at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1038 .
  1) Wet soils at time of rootworm hatch may have caused a wide variation in the results.
  2) Aztec provided most consistent results, with injury ratings lower or equal to Bt seeds.
  3) Bt seeds provided varying results and "are not silver bullets against corn rootworms."
  4) A combination of Bt hybrids and soil insecticides resulted in less root injury.
  5) Researchers are not recommending that a combination always be used.
• Until this year, a low number of soybean aphids found in the fall meant a low number would be feasting on soybean fields the following summer. 2008 should have been a year with few soybean aphids, but it wasn't. Researchers say the fall survey can be helpful in predicting an outbreak, but only if the data is combined with a similar survey of the population of Asian multi-colored lady beetles, which are a major aphid predator.
• Challenge your friends. In some cases, the test weight of corn is inversely proportional to moisture content. IL Extension's Emerson Nafziger says it makes sense that wetter kernels are "a little puffy" which lowers test weight. He says keep that in mind if you are docked on test weight if delivering high moisture corn. Dry grain has better test weight.
• Nafziger is concerned about drydown, with days in the 60's and nights in the 40's. He says corn should be harvested in that case when moisture reaches the mid to lower 20% range. He says corn dries at a slower rate the dryer it gets, and it will slow even further as temperatures drop in October. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1043 .
• Soybean seed quality, which was compromised last year, could also be challenged this year with fungal problems. Plant pathologist X. B. Yang at Iowa State reports the presence of cercospora leaf spot, which appears like SDS or pod and stem blight. It causes a purple discoloration in soybeans, along with poor seed vigor and germination.
• NASS will come calling this winter to find out how much is being paid to cash rent farm land. This new report will quantify levels of cash rent and determine accurate rent values for land in the Conservation Reserve Program. The results of the USDA study will not be released until April, which will be too late to impact cash rent levels in 2009 leases, unless owners and operators have agreed on that variable to adjust rent up or down.
• Settling upon a cash rent is a function of communication between the owner and the operator according to Purdue economist Craig Dobbins. He says, "It's a matter of being able to put yourself in the other's shoes and understanding the kinds of costs and risks that are being taken by all parties involved. As long as people keep communicating with each other, they will eventually find a number that is agreeable and equitable."

• Exports are a function of the dollar and Darrel Good says its value is now a function of the roiling financial markets. The IL marketing specialist says corn exports are behind 2007, but it is early in the marketing year. Since Sept. 1 export inspections have been 50% of last year and through Sept. 11 export commitments have been 60% of last year.
• Soybean exports are also lagging behind 2007 levels, but Darrel Good says unshipped sales exceed 2007 volumes. USDA expects a 13% drop in soybean exports for the marketing year, but the early picture shows a 9% increase. Read his weekly newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/092208.html .
• US grain exports will be competing against global production, which is expected to reach record levels in the current marketing year. For example, wheat production will be large enough to raise ending stocks for the first time in 4 years. However, wheat growing areas of Australia and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather conditions.
• Global coarse grain production is also noted by Extension's Jim Hilker at Michigan State. He says world coarse grain ending stocks in 2009 will be 3 MMT larger than once expected; and while the world corn production estimates have been lowered because of a smaller US crop, the world coarse grain situation looks bearish to the market.
• Hilker's observations on marketing first include a comparison of the Dec corn contract and the Dec light crude oil contract, which he says is a bit scary, then rhetorically asks, "But what do you expect when 25% of your corn crop is used as a competitor to oil?" He says don't carryover any old corn, and consider pricing new corn on sharp upswings in the price of oil. Hilker says the market is apparently willing to pay on-farm storage.
• Regarding soybeans, MSU's Hilker says given soybean production around the world and current ending stocks, the world will not be short on soybeans, assuming South America raises its expected crop. He says the market is willing to pay for on-farm soybean storage, but only into March. After then the spreads narrow and don't cover either storage or interest. He says watch for sharp price upswings to do further pricing.
• Michigan State's Jim Hilker says the wheat basis has problems with predictability. He suggests wheat producers sell cash, and buy futures if they thought the market would rise, or use a basis contract, which does the same, and is more profitable than paying for commercial storage. Hilker says CBOT officials have proposed more delivery points to solve the convergence issue between cash and futures, but he says it will not be solved until futures contracts force delivery. https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• More corn ear rots are showing up, (see the Sept. 19^th edition) and the fungi will grow while corn is in the field or even in the bin as long as moisture is at or above 18%. IL plant pathologist Suzanne Bissonnette says that may determine your priority of when to harvest, particularly if the infection is moderate and wet weather continues.
• Your variety of fungus will determine how dry the corn has to be. If you have diplodia and the corn will be in long term storage, 15-16% should be your target. If you have aspergillus, it will grow in 14-18% moisture and produce aflatoxin, which is not good.
• Make only one combine adjustment and evaluate its success before any other changes says Iowa State. http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2008/0923hanna.htm .
  1) With shorter beans, keep in mind that 90% of field losses are at the header.
  2) Each one inch of uncut bean stubble can result in a one bushel per acre yield loss.
  3) If beans are small, reduce cleaning fan speed to avoid blowing soybeans away.
  4) If sieve openings have been reduced, also reduce the airflow to compensate.
  5) Adjust deck plates over snapping rolls for predominant ear size to avoid kernel loss.
  6) If corn is lodged, keep snouts low, drive slower, and harvest "against the grain."
• Hurricane Ike's track through the eastern Cornbelt left many acres of downed corn, and OSU ag engineer Randall Reeder says that means harvest will be more stressful and longer than usual. He's concerned about tired and frustrated farmers ignoring safety:
  1) Find harvesting aids that specifically deal with downed corn.
  2) Before solving an in-field problem, turn off the combine first.
  3) Use any auto steering or guidance equipment available to reduce vision stress.
  4) Adjust the header to accommodate downed corn plants and broken stalks
  5) Tape safety reminders in the combine cab, take breaks, stretch, and drink water.
• Harvest may put you in a no-win situation when it comes to soil compaction. With wet soil and a late harvest, IL Extension's Duane Friend says many producers will take compaction as the lesser evil. If that happens, plant stress will show up next spring.
  1) Restrict trips to specific tracks or lanes. The second trip compacts less than the first.
  2) When unloading, use the combine wheel track on the prior round in the field.
  3) Never cross the field diagonally, even though that may be the shortest distance.
  4) If a semi cannot be parked on the road, at the least, keep them on the headland.
  5) Tires that are over inflated will increase the compaction of the soil.
  6) Soil compaction is cured by wetting/drying/freezing/thawing and just takes time.
  7) Only well-defined compacted layers 4+ inches down are candidates for sub-soiling.
• Alfalfa cuttings have been delayed all year, and you may have one more cutting, but will that interfere with the fall rest period? Iowa St. forage specialist Steve Barnhart says that will continue for 6-10 more weeks. http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/showitem.php?id=101 .
  1) If you don't need the hay, leave it in the field and don't graze in fall or winter.
  2) If you need the hay, wait for a killing freeze to cut it, and leave 4-5 inch stubble.
  3) Cutting hay now causes the plant to re-grow, unnecessarily using its stored reserves.
• When your crops are out, get a soil test and set a date for your quadrennial limestone application. Row crops like a pH of 6.0, and the pH should be 6.5 to 7.0 for alfalfa and clover. It also enhances nitrogen fixation and improves soil structure, and if being spread on a field that will be planted to a legume, spread 6 months ahead for good soil reaction.
• A new crop of winter annual weeds will be germinating in the next couple months, and may be more numerous than last year. Reductions in use of pre-emergent herbicides, a shift to post-emergent use of glyphosate, primarily, and increased no-till practices have spawned the weed crop that Dad never saw. Visit this resource to brush up on winter annuals: http://extension.missouri.edu/explorepdf/regpubs/ncr614.pdf .
  1) Dandelions, marestail, henbit, and pennycress are harder to control in the spring.
  2) If soil moisture is short, control of winter annuals saves moisture for the spring.
  3) Fall herbicide applications can save time in the spring and allow timely planting.
• With late maturing soybeans, wheat will be a late planted crop. IL Extension's Mike Roegge says that means fewer fall tillers will develop and he suggests increasing the seeding rate. He says for each week that seeding is delayed beyond the Hessian fly free date, the seeding rate should be increased 10%. 20-30 lbs of N is recommended also.
• Speaking of Hessian flies, the purpose of planting wheat after the date for your latitude, is to prevent females from laying a full complement of eggs. If wheat has not germinated, the Hessian fly will not have the opportunity for larvae to hatch and survive. They live at the base of the plant, remove plant juices, and the wheat will fail to tiller.
• When harvesting corn stover for ethanol production, your nitrogen bill goes down. That is the thought of MN agronomist Jeff Coulter, who says when 50% to 100% of the residue is removed from continuous corn crops, the optimum N rate is cut 13%. Coulter says less N is needed for the next year because corn residue immobilizes the N and promotes tie up of N by microorganisms in the soil. Read his fact sheet on residue harvesting at: http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2008/08MNCN28.html .
• Export demand continues to support pork prices where they are. MO economist Glenn Grimes says the value of pork exports per hog slaughtered in Jan-July was $35.89 per head, and that is up 46% from 2007. Grimes says the net exports caused the 9% increase in demand for live hogs for Jan- July, while US consumer demand for pork dropped 4%.
• On the issue of production costs, Grimes and cohort Ron Plain say the 2007-08 marketing year price for corn was $4.20, but that will rise in 2008-09 to a range of $5-$6 according to USDA. The livestock economists say that will increase the cost of hog production by $4-$9 per cwt in the coming year, compared to the past 12 months. For cattle producers they say the higher cost of corn will add $48-$108 per head cost.
• If your farm kid has a desire to be an ag engineer, Cornbelt Land Grant Universities are among the tops says US News & World Report. Illinois is best for the third consecutive year. Iowa St. is #4, Purdue is tied for #5, and Ohio St. & Penn St. are tied at #8.

After the rains of the past few weeks, many are wondering if the soil will ever dry enough to harvest this years crop. There just isn't a great deal of evaporation nor will crops be taking a lot out of the soil to allow drying to occur. Wheat producers are even more concerned since most of that crop is sowed after soybean, and although May planted soybeans are close to mature, the June planted still have quite a bit of pod fill to go yet.

If wheat growers haven't yet placed a seed order, time is of the essence. Wheat varieties are numerous. Utilizing yield trials to determine varieties gives better results. The U of I variety trials are located at this address: http://vt.cropsci.uiuc.edu/wheat.html

The research conducted in IL has shown wheat sown after soybean has a higher yield versus after corn. This is due to better stands behind beans as well as less disease potential. Tillage has increased yield compared to no till wheat after soybean, but probably not to the extent that the extra cost of tillage would outweigh the better yield. However, wheat planted after corn has benefited from a tillage trip.

Wheat seed treated with an insecticide seed treatment have generally yielded positive results at the Orr Research Center. And the further you head south in IL the more positive the results.

Application of 20-30# of nitrogen in the fall is recommend. 150# of DAP would provide this, as well as provide much needed phosphorus. 50# of 0-0-60 would also be required. Both these application rates are based upon the amounts of fertility 75 bushels of wheat would remove from the field. If the soil is low in either nutrient, then additional fertilizer should be added. Remaining nitrogen should be applied in the spring, in a single application.

The fly free date for our area is approximately Oct. 1^{st (note the Logan County dates are September 29 on the north and range to October 3 in the south)}. Seeding at or close to that date would be recommend. 1.2- 1.4 million seeds per acre would be the goal. Consult the seed tag to determine seeds per pound on the variety you are seeding to determine pounds per acre required to achieve this population.

Since the soybean crop needs to be harvested prior to wheat seeding, delayed seeding will be the norm this year. Because delayed seeded usually results in fewer fall tillers that develop, increased seeding rates should be considered. Tillers are what produce seed heads, and you don't want to compromise yield. For each week that seeding is delayed after the fly free date, increase the seeding rate by 10%.

I am not sure how much more rain to expect this season, but I have had enough. I also know that diseases love the wet weather. This season we had a wet July, a dry August, and now a very wet September. The wet July weather that occurred after and during the corn silk stage has probably contributed to the development of Diplodia ear rot that has been found in corn fields since late August. Planting corn after corn and minimum tillage also favors development of this disease, because the organism causing disease survives in corn stalks left on the field from the previous year.

Often the fungus causing Diplodia ear rot will infect the ear just after flowering which causes the husk and the ear leaf to appear bleached and brown, compared to the normal green color of the remaining leaves. If the husk leaves are pulled back to expose the ear and kernels, the ear may appear shrunken and gray-brown in color, while infected kernels will be surrounded by a dense mass of white fungus that fuses the kernels to the husk leaves. The white moldy growth often begins at the bottom of the ear, and if infection occurred early could cover the entire ear or only a portion of the ear if infection happened later. As the season progresses, the white moldy growth will turn gray-brown and small, round, black specks (fungal fruiting bodies) will form scattered about on the husk and kernels.

While the fungus causing Diplodia ear rot will not produce a toxin in the grain, like ear rots caused by Fusarium or Aspergillus fungi, it will cause the grain to be light weight, shriveled, and have lower nutritional value for livestock. Usually this ear rot is not a problem in stored grain, but infected grain should be dried to below 15% moisture to prevent growth by this fungus in storage. A good description and photos of ear rots can be found in the 2007 issue, volume number 21, article 3 of The Bulletin at http://ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin.

Diplodia is not as common as other ear rots, but in wet years like this one, it can be a problem. Management options are limited but include crop rotation and selecting less susceptible hybrids for next year. Talk with your seed dealer, as corn hybrids differ in their susceptibility to Diplodia.

The wet, cool weather poses other harvest concerns, such as lodging of corn in wet soil, being able to get equipment into the wet fields, and the ability of grain to mature and dry. Along with these concerns, I suggest being vigilant about scouting for stalk rots. If Diplodia ear rot is present, this same organism may show up in the stalks as well. The base of corn stalk with Diplodia stalk rot will have small, black specks embedded in the plant tissue. There will be no pink color and the black specks will not rub off as with Gibberella stalk rot. White mold like that seen on the ear kernels may be found in lower stalks but not always, and splitting the stalk in half may reveal internal shredded plant tissue with small, black specks (fungal fruiting bodies).

Effective last fall, the State of Illinois requires many motor carriers to comply with the Unified Carrier Registration Act. The program replaced the State Registration System in Illinois, and requires all farmers and for-hire motor carriers to register. There is an annual registration fee for this program, and it is based on the number of carriers in your fleet.

Many farmers are caught in the requirements of the program because of the interstate commerce aspect of grain sales. Even delivered to a local elevator, grain then moved to a river terminal for export or shipped to another state for livestock feeding makes the grain sale an interstate commerce transaction.

There are two criteria that define whether the vehicle needs to be registered. One is bashed on weight. If the vehicle combination is over 10,000 pounds it is considered a commercial vehicle, regardless of whether it is for-hire. The second test is the interstate commerce part which we have already covered. This program works in concert with USDOT number registration, and the USDOT number is required before application.

Illinois Farm Bureau has put together a good question and answer document on the program, from which I will try to quote with some accuracy. There is no farm exemption from this program. The program is basically aimed at safety, and fees are used to help pay for policing the program. Payment of USDOT and UCR fees may be a part of the vehicle safety inspection.

• USDA's September Crop Report is scheduled for release this morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The crop estimates will be posted at: www.farmgate.uiuc.edu , and also:
  1) Supply and demand balance sheet: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
  2) NASS http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046
• The market is expecting an average of 153.3 bu. for corn, down from the 155 bu. estimate in Aug. Also anticipated for corn is total production at 12.152 bil. bu. and ending stocks for next Aug. at 1.056 bil. bu. down from USDA's 1.133 bil. in Aug.
• The market is expecting a 40.2 bu. per acre average yield for soybeans, compared to the 40.5 bu. average forecast by USDA in Aug. Also expected by the market is a 2.95 bil. bu. crop, with a 146 mil. bu. carryout next August, up from USDA's 135 mil. in Aug.
• Crop size for corn and beans tends to grow in the September Crop Report says Marketing Specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State. Corn production climbs 1% and bean production climbs 1.4%. He says the bigger swings have been in years with unusual weather, lead by 1988 and 1993 for corn and 2003 and 2004 for soybeans. He says, "Based on the 1993 and 2003 crop years, downward revisions in corn and soybean production are more likely given the late planting and flooding." See his charts at: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo090108.pdf#page=4
• Grain exports are headed south says IL Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, compared to the 2007-8 marketing year that may have recorded corn exports at 2.425 bil. bu. But USDA projects exports for the new corn crop at 2 bil. bu. for these reasons:
  1) Foreign grain production will be at record highs, resulting in fewer imports needed.
  2) The stronger dollar means US grain is more expensive in a slower global economy.
• Darrel Good also expects soybean exports to taper off this year for several reasons:
  1) Soybean exports of 1.145 bil. bu. this year will be 13% less or 1 bil. bu. in 2008-9.
  2) Chinese soybean imports that grew 23% last year will only grow 1.5% for 2008-9.
  3) Total world soybean trade will slow, and South American will export more.
  Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/090808.html .
• Grain stocks will be estimated by USDA at the end of the month, advises Jim Hilker at Michigan State. For corn he's expecting the Sept. 1 stocks to be 1.576 bil. or 12% of use. Hilker says exports and feed have been on target and he says carryout should be kept steady in the Sept. 12 Crop Report. https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
• Compare your state to NE, where ag economist Bruce Johnson says the build up of cash receipts has been "phenomenal." He says historically, livestock sales had been 60% of cash receipts, but with 2008 crop receipts double that of 2005, cash receipts from crops will surpass livestock. www.agecon.unl.edu/Cornhuskereconomics/2008/9-10-08.pdf
• Johnson projects NE farm income to be 21% more than 2007 and 90% higher than the previous 10 year average. But he says that is not the case for everyone, since there is a great disparity between crop and livestock producers. He calculates, "The crop sector is staged to reap an additional $1.5 billion of net farm income in 2008, while the livestock sector may well experience a $750 million reduction in net earnings compared to 2007."
• "Markets don't like profits," says MO economist Ray Massey, and ethanol has not only resulted in corn profits, but has caused market volatility and price risk. Massey says profits will go to zero because of increases for crop input prices. "Profits will go toward zero first for ethanol producers, then for crop producers, and eventually for input suppliers and landowners, says Massey, who predicted "a painful transition."
• With high market volatility, vigilant risk management is crucial says Missouri's Massey, and farmers need to keep watch of their financial strength. He says your current ratio of assets to debt should be 1.5 to 2.0 or better. That is $1 of debt for $2 of assets. He also recommended doubling your cash reserves, since production cost has doubled.
• Warm and sunny weather will speed corn dry down and cut your drying costs, although the late planting may mean you'll have drying charges. Peter Thomison at Ohio State says corn will dry 3/4 to 1% per day from mid to late September, but that slows to a rate of 1/2 to 3/4% per day going into October, and is negligible by late November.
• Thomison says count your growing degree days. "Generally, it takes 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25 to 20% requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture. In September we average about 10 to15 GDDs per day. In October (as weather cools) the rate drops to 5 to 10 GDDs per day."
• If you are harvesting corn for dry grain storage, OSU's Thomison says that should begin at 23% to 25% moisture, since waiting until 20% can mean yield losses from stalk lodging, ear rots, and insect feeding damage. The loss of one normal-sized ear every 100 feet of row means a loss of one bushel per acre, which is also two kernels per square foot.
• Use harvest to predict your 2009 weed crop suggests Iowa State's Michael Owen who says use of a single herbicide will quickly allow development of resistant weeds. Also:
  1) Weeds follow tillage patterns and the presence of live weeds indicates resistance.
  2) Once a weed problem is recognized it is usually too late to resolve the problem.
  3) Field ponds that produced only a crop of weeds will have major weeds in 2009.
  4) Field ponds may also warrant additional weed control tactics and separate management
  5) Plan to use an early pre-plant herbicide next year on 2008 problem areas.
• What are your soybean plans for 2009, Roundup Ready beans or conventional beans? MO agronomist Grover Shannon says the tripling of glyphosate prices are causing more farmers to return to a conventional system, using comparatively yielding soybeans, but with a cheaper cost of weed control, and less likelihood of glyphosate resistance. And Shannon says the going price for non-GMO soybeans is about $1 over CBOT prices.
• Scout soybeans for pod damage by bean leaf beetles. Holes will allow disease entry that will cause discolored, moldy, shriveled, or disease beans that otherwise look healthy.
• Compare your state to OH, where OSU agronomists say nearly every farm in Ohio has a field or two that could benefit from planting wheat by reducing problems associated with the continuous production of corn and soybeans. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#D
  1) Select the highest yielding variety, with resistance to multiple diseases and fungi.
  2) Plant in the first 10 days after the fly free date and avoid aphid-borne BYDV.
  3) Use the optimum seeding rate between 1.2 and 1.6 mil. seeds per acre.
  4) Plant seeds 1.5 in. deep, which is critical for tiller development and winter survival.
  5) Apply 20-30 lbs of nitrogen per acre at planting to enhance tiller development.
• High corn prices mean changes in cattle feeding. Nebraska's Darrel Mark says as the feeding cost of gain has doubled in the past two years, there is more incentive to background calves during the winter and following summer on forages and delay placing the cattle on feed until they are long yearlings at the end of the summer grazing season. But he says heavy calves weaned in the fall may have overweight carcasses.
• If you are evaluating retained ownership in the fall calf crop, Mark says decide whether to put them on feed then or wait until they are yearlings next fall. He says yearlings could generate a $69 return per head, compared to $2 return for calves that are fed to be sold in May 2009. Read: http://www.lmic.info/memberspublic/InTheCattleMarket.html .
• Overseas demand for pork, combined with the low value of the dollar, had been keeping the pork market active, but MO livestock economist Glenn Grimes says the information won't surface until another month or two, but the action of the market in the past 30 days suggests a slowdown in the phenomenal growth in pork exports.
• Farm Safety Week begins Sept. 21, and is designed to call attention to the hundreds of Cornbelt accidents involving slow moving farm equipment, particularly during the harvest season. Many states have requirements for highly reflective SMV placards, along with strong headlights and plenty of red lights that indicate the width of the equipment.

• USDA's August Crop Report indicated more corn than the market anticipated at 12.3 bil. bu., but the rest of the world is producing a good crop as well. IL Extension's Darrel Good says, "Production prospects have declined for Argentina, but improved for Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and the Ukraine. Coarse grain production outside the US is forecast at a record 760.33 MMT, nearly 5% larger than last year's crop."
• Darrel Good says the same is true for soybeans. "Soybean production in Brazil in 2009 is forecast at 2.3 bil. bu., 55 mil. less than forecast last month but 55 mil. more than produced this year. For Argentina, production is forecast at 1.82 bil. bu., 55 mil. more than forecast in July and 110 mil. more than the 2008 harvest." Read his newsletter at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/081208.html .
• What is your guess of futures prices on future dates? Extension economists have submitted their estimates for a wide range of commodities, abbreviated here:
  1) Corn: 12/1/08-$6.63. 3/2/09-$7.16. 6/30/09-$6.89
  2) Beans: 12/1/08-$14.62. 3/2/09-$15.31. 6/30/09-$15.26