I received some information recently on a program designed to help you potentially reduce your fertilizer input expenses. It's called the BMP Challenge, and the idea is to help you reduce your input risk by following recommended best management practices (BMP). Simply put, you follow U of I recommendations on a field, but in that same field, you also do a strip of your normal fertility program. You yield check the side by side comparisons. At harvest, net returns are compared and you are compensated for any difference.

This is not an insurance program, but paid for by a grant from NRCS.

The challenge requires a CCA to help you set up and mark the strip in the field, complete the paperwork and submit any documents. Most local fertilize dealerships have a couple of CCA's so that shouldn't be a problem. And the challenge will pay them to help you.

Compensation is based upon yield differences and a corn price that has yet to be set. For the 2007 program, the corn price is $3.50, but the price for 2008 will not be set until December (when RMA releases their corn price). So for that reason, it may be a little more difficult for those who apply N in the fall to comply. Although if you really wanted to, you could fall apply at the reduced rate, and then add additional N to the strip with dry or liquid next spring.

Illinois is one of 13 states (along with IA, MO is not) eligible for this program. You use your equipment, and follow all your normal practices (except N, P and K which follow U of I recommendations). Now I realize most of you have followed U of I recommendations for P and K. But for the past few years, U of I has been utilizing a new N recommendation which is based upon return to nitrogen dollars spent. If you've not tried this new system, here is an opportunity to try with little or no risk. You can view the new N recommendation on the following web site http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soilfertility/nrate.aspx

If you're interested in trying the program, more information is available at www.bmpchallenge.org Or you can contact Brian Brandt at 614-221-8610.

Logan County Extension Office

• High soybean prices could push 2008 South American production over 105 mil. acres and production to 4.34 bil. bu. under current projections. But Extension economist Darrel Good says US producers may be needed to increase acreage by 4-5 mil. next year. And he says, "The price of soybeans needed to accomplish that size of increase depends to a large degree on the corn prices and the magnitude of increase in wheat seedings."
• Once the South American growing season is underway, IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good believes, "Prices will largely take direction from the market's take on the needed increase in US acreage in 2008. The generally weak basis and the $.42 carry from Nov 2007 to July 2008 futures offer a decent opportunity for hedging farm-stored soybeans. Holding some soybeans unpriced may be prudent as well, given all the production uncertainty into 2008." Read his outlook. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/index.html .
• Darrel Good's quarterly corn outlook says 2008 corn demand will be 12.975 bil. bu. and with a 152 bu. trend yield, harvested acreage will need to be 85.36 mil. He says 2008 acreage could drop 4.2 mil. acres and we would have sufficient supplies with the nearly 2 bil. bu. carryover. "With December 2008 corn futures above $4.00, corn still appears to be potentially more profitable than soybeans in the heart of the corn belt for 2008."
• Corn prices should remain in the upper part of USDA's estimated range says Darrel Good, "With 20% of the 2007 US crop likely already sold at an average price above $3.00 per bushel and the futures market contracts for the 2007-08 marketing year trading from $3.69 to $4.04 it seems likely that the average price for the year will be near the upper end of the USDA's projected range for the average price." He says the weak basis will improve, and with the large carry in the futures market, storage will be profitable.
• But what if you don't have storage? Marketing Specialist Jim Hilker at Michigan State says the corn market will not pay commercial storage costs. He says consider selling if you think prices will decline, or use a basis contract if you think they will rise. "Other alternatives are a minimum price contract or selling your crop now and buying a call option now or a later in the season. Calls are expensive, but not as expensive as commercial storage plus lost interest." http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm .
• If you are running out of bin space and bins are available to rent, what is a fair rental rate to pay for a grain bin? Owners should cover depreciation, insurance, repairs, tax, and interest: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/wholefarm/html/c2-24.html . Ohio State economists say the rate should be between that cost and commercial rates. Issues to resolve are: aeration, repairs, insurance claims, utility costs, and grain quality problems.
• From red ink to black ink will be the case for most dairy farms say IL Extension economist Dale Lattz from producer records statewide. "Milk prices will likely exceed costs in 2007 resulting in positive profit margins for dairy producers. Higher milk prices will be the reason for the increase in returns. The average price received for milk in 2006 was 17% lower than the average in 2005. The average milk price for 2007 is projected to be about 50% more, or about $6.35 per hundredweight, than the average for 2006."
• 2006 dairy revenue was down and costs were high says Lattz in his newsletter, http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo07_16/fefo07_16.html . "The average net price received per 100 pounds of milk was $12.88 which was less than total costs of $16.77. The average price received for milk in 2005 was $15.46. The 2006 price received for milk was the lowest since 2003. On a per cow basis, total returns from milk were $2,508 compared to the total cost to produce milk of $3,271 per cow."
• Cattle profits have risen more than production according to Purdue economist Chris Hurt, who says prices will be at record high levels, despite a recent fade. Price expectations for the final quarter had been excessive as cash prices reached $95 in early September. However, prices have moderated to near $90 and averages in the final quarter now appear likely to be in the low-to-mid $90s. Cattle will remain profitable to own, he says in a newsletter. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/102207.html .
• How profitable will cattle be next year? Purdue livestock economist Chris Hurt says, "For the entire year of 2008, cattle prices are expected to make new record highs, averaging $1 or so above this year's $92 average. High prices will eventually encourage expansion of the cow herd, but that is not expected until at least mid-2008 or even 2009."
• Recent studies show that anywhere from 60-75% of soybean fields are now being left untilled following fall soybean harvest, however the 25% of soybean stubble that is being tilled has shown significant soil erosion over the past 5 years, says IL Extension Natural Resources educator Bob Frazee. He says agronomists recommend against fall tillage of soybean stubble, and Frazee says trends are showing compliance with that philosophy.
• Do yourself a favor and clean out any buckthorn on your farm, which serves as the overwinter host for soybean aphids. IL Extension's John Church says it stays green longer than most plants, making it easily identified. Smaller plants can be pulled without regrowth, but larger plants that are cut off need to be treated with herbicides or fire to prevent regrowth. See: http://www.glifwc.org/invasives/Rhamnus_cathartica/id.html .
• Lambsquarters that just won't die are becoming yield killers in corn and particularly in soybeans because of its growing resistance to glyphosate. It has developed resistance to ALS inhibitors and triazines as well, says Purdue weed scientist Bill Johnson. He says no-tillers need to have 2, 4-D in a burndown program, and the best thing to use against lambsquarters is a soil-applied herbicide, since nearly every one works on lambsquarters.
• Lush growth of winter wheat should not be a concern, say Ohio State agronomists. They say more fall growth means tillering is completed before dormancy and the plants will begin reproductive growth with the spring warm up. It improves winter hardiness, and decreases the potential for heaving in the spring. They add that recent surveys in Ohio have indicated minimal problems with rust, diseases, and aphids in wheat fields.
• Wet soils throughout much of the Cornbelt will yield compaction problems next spring says MN soils specialist Jodi DeJong-Hughes, but her advice is just be careful while you harvest the crop. http://www.extension.umn.edu/cropenews/2007/07MNCN45.html .
  1) Tracks or duals on combines and grain carts will provide better floatation options.
  2) Use the proper tire size and inflation for the carrying capacity of your equipment.
  3) 80% of compaction occurs on the first pass, so keep the grain cart in the same track.
• Mark your calendar for the National No-till Conference, Jan9-12 in Cincinnati. Speakers are Extension specialists, crop consultants, experienced no-tillers, and others. Details and registration information: http://www.lesspub.com/cgi-bin/site.pl?ntf/ntfConf .
• If you are storing corn wet, what is the cost to dry it? Ag Engineer Ken Hellevang at ND State says 11¢ will get it from 21% to 16% moisture, based on a 7¢/kwh rate with airflow of 1.25 cfm and 7 weeks of air. Adjust your electric rate accordingly. He says add another 15¢ if you warm the air 3-5 degrees and dry it down to 13.5% moisture. Get more details: http://www.plantmanagementnetwork.org/pub/cm/news/2007/CornDrying/ .
• If you fear aflatoxin, "Harvest corn early and dry it down to 14% moisture for immediate marketing or 12% for long-term storage to help manage aflatoxins," says SD State plant pathologist Larry Osborne. He says keeping the crop in the field allows moisture to fluctuate and enhances the potential for more toxins to grow and reproduce.
• Aflatoxin poses risks to livestock, particularly dairy cattle says SD dairy specialist Alvaro Garcia, "Consumption of low concentrations by animals sensitive to aflatoxins can lead to death in 72 hours. Health and productivity of animals that eat corn contaminated with non-fatal levels of aflatoxins is seriously impaired." He said screening can cut aflatoxin content in whole kernels 86-89% compared to fines.
• Slowly, but surely, we are moving toward a new Farm Bill. The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry approved a measure Thursday which may get full Senate consideration next week. Among the provisions, the pending proposal:
  1) Lets farmers choose between a conventional subsidy or an average crop revenue
  2) Creates a permanent disaster aid program, replacing yearly ad hoc programs
  3) Increases loan rates and target prices for soybeans, wheat, and some other crops.
  4) Eliminates the 3-entity rule for payment limitations, with payments going to a person.
  5) Funds conservation programs at $4 billion, with full CRP funding.

On October 22, soybean rust (SBR) was reported and confirmed by the University of Illinois Plant Clinic on a soybean leaflet from McDonough County. Dr. Loretta Ortiz-Ribbing, University of Illinois Extension Specialist located in Macomb, found the rust-infected leaflets in a soybean field south of Macomb. "The disease was found in a partially harvested bean field where a portion of the bean plants were left standing because they still had green leaves," says Ortiz-Ribbing.

Many states around Illinois such as Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska have been reporting soybean rust, while this is the second report of SBR in Illinois. "It is kind of like finding a needle in a haystack,' says Ortiz-Ribbing. "We know it has to be out there, but many of the soybeans in this part of Illinois are already harvested." In addition, plant pathologists at the University of Illinois have found that the leaves collected recently required an incubation period before the pustules and spores could be readily observed, which made identifying soybean rust in the field even more difficult this fall.

Dr. Carl Bradley, State Extension Specialist for Soybean Pathology spent part of this week searching other areas of western and northern Illinois looking for the disease. "We want to document the pathogen's spread so we can verify models that predict its movement," Bradley says.

The USDA facilitated the development of a federal, state, university, and industry-coordinated framework of surveillance plots, called Sentinel Plots, across the United States, Canada, and Mexico to monitor, report, predict, and manage soybean rust. As the State Extension Soybean Pathologist, Bradley is the soybean rust Sentinel Plot Coordinator for Illinois. "I provide weekly commentary on current disease scouting and management recommendations for soybean rust and other soybean diseases as part of the Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education (PIPE) website located at www.sbrusa.net."

Logan County Extension Office

Farm lease forms are available from the Extension Office in Lincoln for a dollar per pair, or from the web. Web options include pdf format or Word. Following are the links for the online versions:

http://www.urbanext.uiuc.edu/farmleases/cashfarm.docfor cash in Word

http://www.urbanext.uiuc.edu/farmleases/cashfarm.pdffor cash in pdf

http://www.urbanext.uiuc.edu/farmleases/cropshare.docfor crop share in Word

http://www.urbanext.uiuc.edu/farmleases/cropshare.pdffor crop share in pdf

• USDA's October Crop Report nudged 2007 corn production higher to 13.318 bil. bu, up from 13.308 bil. in Sept. The change results from a new acreage estimate of 93.6 mil planted which is up from the 92.888 mil. acre estimate released at the end of June. But USDA also reduced the average yield estimate to 154.7 bu. from the 155.8 bu. in Sept. The market was looking for a production estimate ranging from 13.232 to 13.600 bil. bu.
• USDA's October Crop Report reduced the soybean production estimate to 2.598 bil. bu. down from the 2.619 bil. estimate in Sept. and compared to the trade estimate of 2.648 bil. bu. The lower production estimate was calculated with a new acreage estimate of 63.699 mil., compared to 64.081 mil. estimated in June. Ave. yield remained at 41.4.
• The October Supply and Demand Report lowered the corn use to 12.640 bil. bu. which raised the carryout to 1.997 bil. bu. at the end of next August. USDA reduced feed demand by 150 mil. bu. reduced ethanol use by 100 mil. bu., and reduced exports by 150 mil. bu. The average seasonal cash price was raised 10¢ to a range of $2.90 to $3.50.
• The October Supply and Demand Report rebalanced its soybean estimates. With less 2007 production, USDA adjusted beginning stocks upward and calculated 2.962 bil. bu. total supply, compared to the 2.964 bil. Sept. estimate. Aug. 2008 ending stocks remained at 215 mil bu. Cash prices were raised 50¢ to a range of $7.85 to $8.85.
• Other notes from today's USDA October Crop and Supply and Demand Reports:
  1) The 86.1 mil. corn acres estimated for 2007 harvest will be the most since 1933.
  2) Ear counts in IL, IN, IA, NE, and WI surpasses the 2004 record.
  3) Overall, soybean pod counts are lower in 2007 than in 2006 for the Cornbelt states.
  4) Compared to 2006, pod counts are up in IA, MN, & NE; down in IL, IN, OH, & MO.
• Corn prices are high, relative to history says Michigan State's Jim Hilker. "The market is still saying it will pay storage for 2007 on-farm stored corn, as shown by the basis and the spreads between futures going out through July. This is not saying the market will go up, but the rated basis will strengthen more than enough to pay for on-farm storage."
• Soybean prices are high, regardless of basis problems, says Hilker. The market appears to want to pay storage into Jan., then puts the brakes on. The problem with trying to take advantage of the storage opportunities is the unpredictable basis we have seen since Mar. However, if you have unpriced soybeans, and have adequate on-farm storage, consider some hedges or H-T-A's to try and take advantage of the weak basis. I suspect the worse you will do is breakeven, and if the basis corrects itself, there may be a nice return."
• "Wheat prices appear to have peaked at least for now," says Extension's Darrel Good, but he says prices may remain generally high and very volatile until 2008 crop prospects are better defined. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/100807.html .
  1) US wheat seeding is about 60% complete, with more soft wheat acreage expected.
  2) So. Hemisphere producers will plant based on No. Hemisphere acreage reports.
• Darrel Good says yields will be as important as wheat acreage, since world average yields have ranged from 39.3 to 42.8 bu. "A modest increase in world wheat acreage and yields near the low end of recent experience would point to the need to ration wheat consumption in 2008-09, while a larger acreage increase and yields near the upper end of recent experience would allow some rebuilding of world inventories," says Good.
• A good wheat crop begins with a good stand says Kansas St. agronomist Jim Shroyer, "If you planted 90 lbs/A in 7 ½-inch rows, for example, you could expect to have about 11 to 13 plants per ft. of row, depending on seed size. If you planted 60 lbs/A in 12-inch rows, you could expect an emergence of about 14 seedlings per ft. of row," he said. He gives emergence tips: http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/news/sty/2007/wheat_stand100407.htm
• Despite bickering among trade negotiators, Univ. of IL trade specialist Bob Thompson says consensus has been reached in the World Trade talks, "to ban agricultural export subsidies and to reduce import tariffs and domestic support linked to the production of specific commodities. While there is still some disagreement concerning the depth of the cuts and how many exceptions should be allowed for politically sensitive commodities, the differences are narrowing rapidly." He says an agreement this year is possible.
• The Farm Bill is an opportunity to address trade issues, says Bob Thompson, but he says, "The House farm bill sends a message to the rest of the world that the US is not very serious about the trade negotiations. In fact, the House action is seen by the rest of the world as yet another example of the US arrogance and unilateralist approach when it comes to international relations." He says it creates trade problems in 5 different areas.
• "The same old thing," is what Purdue trade specialist Allan Gray calls the House proposal, but he says the Senate is making changes in pocketbook issues. He says direct payments may be cut slightly, specialty crops will be allowed on acreage previously reserved for program crops, and the ceiling will be lowered on farm program payments.
• Are farmland prices in line with returns to farmland? IL Extension Specialist Gary Schnitkey says that depends on the capitalized value of the land, which is driven up by either higher cash rents or by lower interest rates. Read his capitalization analysis at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo07_15/fefo07_15.html .
• Schnitkey's contention is that "While farmland prices exceed capitalized values currently, likely increases in cash rents will bring farmland prices and capitalized values more closely in line with historical average difference. It is not likely, however, that increasing cash rents will cause farmland prices to equal 1.07 times capitalized values, the historical average from 1986 through 2004." He says, "Either a new relationship between farmland prices and capitalized values exists where farmland prices exceed capitalized values by a large margin, possibly caused by urban sprawl, or growth in farmland prices must slow so that capitalized values catch up with farmland prices."
• Blue eye mold can over-winter in your stored corn, says Purdue's Dirk Maier. "Blue eye mold can grow at lower moisture contents and may stay in the grain even after it's been cooled. When temperatures become warm in the spring the mold can continue to grow and create problems that can result in quality discounts at the time of sale." He says removing some grain from each bin will pull out the center core with fines and molds.
• Soybean aphids might be a rarity in 2008, if Ohio State analysis holds true. Bug folks there have been finding only small colonies preparing to over-winter, "The significance of these low numbers point to the possibility that, even though we did not have the large populations anticipated this past summer, we might still be in for a low aphid year in 2008." But before coming to conclusions they want to hear from other states.
• Kill off some SCN this winter by eradicating winter annual weeds that play host to the cysts until 2008 soybeans arrive. Winter hosts include: Purple deadnettle (strong host), Henbit (strong host), Field pennycress (moderate host), Shepherd's-purse (weak host), Small-flowered bittercress (weak host), and Common chickweed (weak host).
• Corn stalks are not very palatable, but crop residue provides grazing options where forage is tight. Ohio State Specialist Jeff McCutcheon says 1 acre of corn residue will provide enough for a 1,000 lb animal for up to 2 months. The animal will begin with the grain, and husks, then resort to cobs and stalks. He says stalks have a 60 day limit. Read more on crop residue and stover nutrients at: http://fairfield.osu.edu/ag/beef/beef.html .
• Selling "pre-conditioned" calves nets an additional return of $23.50 per head according to an Oklahoma State study: sickness declined from 36.4% to 9.2%, death loss decreased from 4.3% to 1.5%, average daily gain increased from 2.6 to 2.9 pounds, and percent grading USDA Choice increased from 36% to 50% for precondition calves versus non preconditioned calves in Texas feedlots. Info: http://cattlemarketanalysis.org/index.html .
• Time for soil testing, managing fertility, and IL Extension's Mike Roegge says it takes $50 to maintain P & K for 175 bu. corn. He says a corn-soy-wheat rotation can use 40 lbs of P, but lower that by 10 lbs if the rotation is only corn-soy. Potassium soil test levels of 240 lb/A (on high CEC soils) will provide 95% of optimal yield for all crops.
• Don't guess your limestone needs says IL Extensions Jim Morrison, but take a soil test every 4 years. In a cash-grain system a pH of at least 6.0 to 6.5 would be suggested. With alfalfa and clover in the rotation, the pH needs to be at least 6.5, preferably closer to 7.0. He says liming enhances nitrogen fixation and may improve soil structure and tilth.
• Mark your calendar for the IL Crop Protection Technology Conf. on Jan. 9 & 10 in Urbana, IL. The focus will be on high production corn and soybean management, nutrient management and water quality, pest resistance management, and IPM.

The 2007 demonstration at the Hartsburg Field was a strip trial comparing rootworm transgenic corn from the various providers of the genetics with that variety's isoline. Rootworm pressure was severe with damage occuring across all plots. Following is the harvest results table.

BLOOMINGTON - Applications of "hand-held" technologies to farming and other agribusinesses will be the focus of a Dec. 13 conference, sponsored by University of Illinois Extension. "it4Ag" will be held at the Interstate Center, 2301 W. Market St., Bloomington.

"Farmers have many new delivery systems for information today," explained Dennis Bowman, U of I Extension crop systems educator based in Champaign and one of the conference's organizers. "Increasingly, producers use the Internet and podcasts to get information when and where they need it.

"Now, with hand-held devices like cell phones and PDAs, they can do all kinds of things. For instance, with auto-steering devices on harvesting and planting machinery, farmers can multi-task and be in constant contact with marketing information, making decisions literally in the field."

The McLean County Farm Bureau is also sponsoring the conference, noted Don Meyer, U of I Extension's director in the county.

"We plan to have speakers who are familiar with uses of hand-held technologies and also some panels of farmers who have used these devices in their own enterprises," explained Meyer. "We also will have vendors at the event."

The conference opens at 9 a.m. with a discussion by Paul Hixson, U of I Extension communications specialist, about current and future roles information technology plays in agriculture.

"There will be three breakout sessions focusing on 'Handheld and Portable Devices: What and Why,' 'Internet Tools: Information on Demand,' and 'Collaboration Technologies: Linking You to Your Supply and Marketing Chain," said Meyer. "U of I Extension broadcast communications specialist Todd Gleason will moderate a producer panel presenting personal experiences using information technologies.

"A trade show allowing participants to interact with various aspects of information technology will also be featured."

Registration for the event is $50 and includes conference fee, lunch, and a USB drive with conference materials included. Those who register before Nov. 13 will also receive a portable media player for MP3 and video files.

Those interested in learning more about the event or in pre-registering may do so through McLean County Extension's website (http://www.mcleanextension.org). Details on registration and/or exhibitor information may also be obtained by contacting Brian Lambert at the McLean County Extension office (309) 663-8306.

Logan County Extension Office

With harvest winding down, there will be some operations needing to settle up on custom work. There are a couple of helpful websites to use to help you arrive at figures. The first is the University of Illinois cost of operation figures. These are actual costs of operation that are the breakeven price for operating a piece of machinery. The next set of figures is from Iowa State University, and they are from an actual survey of custom operators in the state of Iowa.

http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/logan/agnews/i2966_601.html#4

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/publications/FM1698.pdf

Logan County Extension Office