I hope your winter work and plans for the next growing season are going well. The winter season brings with it opportunities for educational programs. In this newsletter you will find information on Extension programs we have scheduled in and around Fulton County. Take advantage of as many as possible to increase your knowledge and improve your skills. If there are particular subjects in which you have an educational interest that are not addressed, please suggest them to me, and I will work to include them in future programming.

I have also included a couple of University of Illinois agriculture news articles that you might find interesting. In addition, there is a listing of some recent publications we have available at our office or on the web. Please take a look at these as well.

I look forward to seeing you at some of our upcoming events.

Sincerely,

Earl Allen

Fulton County Extension Director

·2008 Fulton County Plat Book

·Corn Hybrid Test Results in Illinois–2007

·Soybean Hybrid Test Results in Illinois–2007

·Forage Crop Variety Trials in Illinois–2007

·Illinois Voluntary Limestone Program–Producer Information–2007 Edition

·2007-08 Winter Survival, Fall Dormancy & Pest Resistance Ratings from the National Alfalfa & Forage Alliance–available at their web site: http://www.alfalfa.org/falldormancy.html

Projections for 2008 by University of Illinois Extension indicate that corn production will be more profitable than soybean production in northern and central Illinois but soybeans take the edge in southern Illinois.

Prepared by Gary Schnitkey, U of I Extension farm financial management specialist, the report, "Projected Corn and Soybean Returns in 2008" (http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo07_18/fefo07_18.html), is available on Extension's farmdoc website. The complete report includes tables and references to sources available to aid farmers in making calculations.

"Significantly higher costs for corn production may cause some farmers to switch acres from corn to soybeans," said Schnitkey. "The purpose of the study was to project returns for 2008. Corn returns minus soybean returns, hereafter referred to as corn-minus-soybean-returns, indicate that corn production may have higher returns than soybean production on high productivity farmland in 2008."

Schnitkey cautioned that changes in commodity prices could change relative profitability. Returns will also vary across farms. The projected 2008 corn-minus-soybean-returns are roughly similar to averages observed from 2004 to 2007.

Corn-minus-soybean-returns were calculated for northern, central, and southern Illinois. Central Illinois was further divided into high-productivity farmland and low-productivity farmland. Between 2004 and 2007, corn yields averaged 183 bushels for the central Illinois farms with high productivity and 166 bushels for the low productivity category farms.

Data for the study was taken from farms enrolled in the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) program. To be included in the study, a farm had to receive a majority of its income from grain operations.

"Returns for 2007 are not final and are based on yield, price, and cost estimates," Schnitkey noted. "The 2007 results will become 'final' when FBFM records are summarized in 2008."

During the period studies, corn-minus-soybean-returns were lowest in 2005. That year, corn yields were below average while soybean yields were near average. Corn-minus-soybean-returns were highest in 2006. Both corn and soybean yields were above average in 2006 and prices increased substantially over historically average levels. In percentage terms, corn price increased more than soybean price in 2006.

Indications that corn may be more profitable in 2008 may lead some producers to plant corn after corn. Schnitkey recommended that producers consider four points in making such a decision.

"Commodity prices will determine the relative profitability of corn and soybeans," he said. "Recently, there has been a great deal of market volatility that impacts relative corn and soybean profits.

"Second, costs used to conduct this study are averages. Individual farms can vary from these averages. Farmers should use their own costs when analyzing cropping decisions. Third, costs in budgets are assumed constant as acres in respective crop changes. Planting more corn may necessitate equipment changes that could increase costs, for example."

Finally, he noted that planting decisions in 2008 can have profitability impacts in 2009.

"Due to yield drag and higher costs, corn-after-corn is projected to be less profitable than corn-after-soybeans. Planting more corn in 2008 could result in more corn-after-corn in 2009, thereby lowering yields," he said.

- Gary Schnitkey

Farm Conservation Programs Telenet

January 29, Tuesday, 9:00 a.m. to noon
Lewistown Farm Bureau Building

Pre-register at 309-547-3711 or http://fulton.extension.uiuc.edu (Cost: $5)

Landowners and agricultural producers wanting more information on the conservation provisions of the farm bill, Illinois Department of Natural Resources Grant website, and the carbon trading program will find this telenet session useful. There are a number of programs and grants that take land out of continuous row-crop production and financially help landowners.

Area Beef Seminar–Corn Co-Products Emphasis

February 7, Thursday, 9:20 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Scripps Park Building in Rushville

Register at 217-322-3381, Cost: $15.00 ($20.00 after January 31)

Emphasis during the program will be placed on the availability and utilization of corn co-products for beef cattle. Speakers will be specialists from University of Illinois Extension, Illinois State University and industry representatives.

Pesticide Mode-of-Action Workshop

February 27, Wednesday, 9:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m.

Lewistown Farm Bureau Building

Pre-register at 309-547-3711 or http://fulton.extension.uiuc.edu (Cost: $30; Lunch provided)

The program will teach how herbicides, insecticides and fungicides actually work at the cellular level with the goal being to aid growers in their resistance management efforts. Attendees will receive 4 mode-of-action publications. Program counts for 3.5 CEUs in PM of CCA credit.

Alfalfa Telenet

February 29, Friday, 9:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.

Lewistown Farm Bureau Building

Pre-register at 309-547-3711 or http://fulton.extension.uiuc.edu (Cost: $5)

Alfalfa growers, dealers and consultants will hear about current production, harvest, and protection strategies that impact the profitability of alfalfa operations.

14th Annual Fulton County Fee Hunting Workshop

February 29, Friday, 9:15 a.m. – 3:15 p.m.

Dickson Mounds State Museum

Pre-register at 309-833-4747, Cost: $35 ($40 after February 22)

The workshop targets issues in the recreational hunting industry affecting landowners, outfitters and hunters. Learn how to start or improve a natural resource based business from those who are successful in the fee hunting industry.

Estate Planning Workshop

March 4, Tuesday, 9:30 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
Lewistown Farm Bureau Building

Pre-register by Feb. 28 at 309-547-3711 or http://fulton.extension.uiuc.edu (Cost: $10; Lunch provided)

This workshop features a variety of relevant topics to help understand the importance, terminology and purpose of estate planning. After presentations from University of Illinois extension specialist Jim Endress and local attorney Jim Elson, a question and answer session will be held.

Other Dates to Reserve

For more information call 309-547-3711 or go to calendar link at http://fulton.extension.uiuc.edu

·February 4-6, Illinois Pork Expo, Peoria

·February 5, Drainage Workshop–Basics and Benefits of Sub-Surface Drainage, Black Hawk College, Kewanee (309-446-3700)

·February 6, 2008 Illinois Tillage Seminar-Tillage, Technology & Environmental Stewardship, Jacksonville (217-243-7424)

·February 11, New Frontiers in Alternative Crops, Macomb (309-837-3939)

·February 12-13, Central Illinois Crop Management Conference, Springfield

·February 21, Soil and Water Management Workshop–Sustaining Illinois Soils, Macomb (309-837-3939), Galesburg (309-542-5108), or East Peoria (309-467-3789)

·February 21, Illinois Performance Tested Bull Sale, Springfield (309-694-7501)

·February 21-24, Illinois Beef Expo, Springfield

·February 29-March 2, Illinois Horse Fair and Industry Trade Show, Springfield

·March 3, Dairy Focus Meeting, Pekin (309-347-6614)

·March 7-8, University of Illinois "ExploreACES", Champaign-Urbana

·March 26-27, Illinois Cow-Calf Team Meetings, East Peoria

Your Dad didn't have a waterhemp problem, but you do. Extension weed specialists have produced a new tell-all waterhemp booklet that explains why the problem is yours. Obtain the publication at: http://www.ces.purdue.edu/extmedia/BP/GWC-13.pdf . Likely factors include:
1) Increased use of no-till and reduced tillage favors spread of waterhemp. Small seed remains at soil surface and reduced cultivation favors many late-emerging plants.
2) 30 years ago farmers relied on soil applied herbicides with long residual activity; but wide use of ALS-inhibiting herbicides allowed survival of ALS-resistant waterhemp.

An integrated model of pricing corn and soybeans that considers a broader range of strategies than traditional approaches may help producers make pricing decisions in a volatile environment, according to a University of Illinois Extension study.

"So How Do I Make Corn and Soybean Pricing Decisions?" (http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/mobr/mobr_08-01/mobr_08-01.html) was prepared by U of I Extension specialists Darrel Good and Scott Irwin and is available on the farmdoc website. It addresses what Good and Irwin term the "pricing matrix" approach.

"The pricing matrix approach to developing corn and soybean marketing strategies is a general approach to making pricing decisions," said Good. "It is similar to the oft-recommended strategy of diversifying one's investments across different types of investment products."

"The emphasis here is on strategy and not on the implementation of specific pricing decision types such as pricing tool, timing, etc. Implementation of pricing decisions within a cell of the pricing matrix will be impacted by a variety of factors, including crop insurance selections and government program payments."

For corn and soybean producers, price risk has been one of the highest risk management priorities for the farm business. One of the major challenges, as well as sources of frustration, of corn and soybean pricing is the extreme variability in prices, not only across years, but within years.

"Over 25 years between 1982-83 and 2006-07, the average marketing year price of corn received by Illinois producers ranged from $1.54 in 1986-87 to $3.30 in 1995-96. The daily spot cash price of corn in central Illinois during that time ranged from $1.22 on Oct. 16, 1986 to $5.25 on July 11, 1996," said Good.

"For soybeans, the 12-month marketing year average farm price ranged from $4.50 in 2001-02 to $7.94 in 1983-84. The daily spot cash price of soybeans in central Illinois ranged from $3.87 on July 8, 1999 to $10.40 on March 22, 2004."

Another source of challenge and frustration is that futures prices cannot be anticipated with a high degree of accuracy. "The traditional approach to making corn and soybean pricing decisions has been to use a combination of analytical techniques--generally characterized as fundamental and technical analysis--to forecast future price behavior and then time pricing decisions based on those forecasts," said Good. "That approach has essentially been one of attempting to 'beat the market.'"

Good and Irwin identify four steps necessary to implement the pricing matrix approach.

"The first step is to select the appropriate time window for pricing corn and soybean crops," said Good. "The second is to determine the relevant set of crop pricing strategies. Third, decide on the proportions of the crop to be marketed via each of the pricing strategies. Finally, evaluate performance after the marketing window is completed."

The complete report includes examples for producers to follow to gain insights into adopting the pricing matrix approach for their enterprises.

"We want to emphasize our belief that many producers are substantially under-diversified in terms of pricing approaches, with over-reliance on self-directed active strategies," said Good. "Diversification across the four cells of the pricing matrix would likely improve marketing performance for these producers."

"In addition, diversification would more than likely reduce the risk and frustration of making corn and soybean pricing decisions for most producers."

- Darrel Good