Extension Update on Ford-Iroquois Agriculture

A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Sept. 15, 2008

Prepared in part by Stu Ellis, former Extension specialist & Aimee Chandler, Ag Program Coord., Ford-Iroquois Unit

• Copies are now available of the August 2008 Illinois Voluntary Limestone Program Producer Information at the Ford-Iroquois Extension office. This document is produced by the Illinois Department of Agriculture and the Illinois Department of Transportation. Stop by the office to get a copy.
• USDA's September Crop Report is scheduled for release September 12 at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The crop estimates will be posted at: www.farmgate.uiuc.edu , and also:
  1) Supply and demand balance sheet: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
  2) NASS http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046
• The market is expecting an average of 153.3 bu. for corn, down from the 155 bu. estimate in Aug. Also anticipated for corn is total production at 12.152 bil. bu. and ending stocks for next Aug. at 1.056 bil. bu. down from USDA's 1.133 bil. in Aug.
• The market is expecting a 40.2 bu. per acre average yield for soybeans, compared to the 40.5 bu. average forecast by USDA in Aug. Also expected by the market is a 2.95 bil. bu. crop, with a 146 mil. bu. carryout next August, up from USDA's 135 mil. in Aug.
• Crop size for corn and beans tends to grow in the September Crop Report says Marketing Specialist Chad Hart at Iowa State. Corn production climbs 1% and bean production climbs 1.4%. He says the bigger swings have been in years with unusual weather, lead by 1988 and 1993 for corn and 2003 and 2004 for soybeans. He says, "Based on the 1993 and 2003 crop years, downward revisions in corn and soybean production are more likely given the late planting and flooding." See his charts at: www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/IFO_2008/ifo090108.pdf#page=4
• Grain exports are headed south says IL Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good, compared to the 2007-8 marketing year that may have recorded corn exports at 2.425 bil. bu. But USDA projects exports for the new corn crop at 2 bil. bu. for these reasons:
  1) Foreign grain production will be at record highs, resulting in fewer imports needed.
  2) The stronger dollar means US grain is more expensive in a slower global economy.
• Darrel Good also expects soybean exports to taper off this year for several reasons:
  1) Soybean exports of 1.145 bil. bu. this year will be 13% less or 1 bil. bu. in 2008-9.
  2) Chinese soybean imports that grew 23% last year will only grow 1.5% for 2008-9.
  3) Total world soybean trade will slow, and South American will export more.
  Read more at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/090808.html .
• Grain stocks will be estimated by USDA at the end of the month, advises Jim Hilker at Michigan State. For corn he's expecting the Sept. 1 stocks to be 1.576 bil. or 12% of use. Hilker says exports and feed have been on target and he says carryout should be kept steady in the Sept. 12 Crop Report. https://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/outlook.htm
• Johnson projects NE farm income to be 21% more than 2007 and 90% higher than the previous 10 year average. But he says that is not the case for everyone, since there is a great disparity between crop and livestock producers. He calculates, "The crop sector is staged to reap an additional $1.5 billion of net farm income in 2008, while the livestock sector may well experience a $750 million reduction in net earnings compared to 2007."
• "Markets don't like profits," says MO economist Ray Massey, and ethanol has not only resulted in corn profits, but has caused market volatility and price risk. Massey says profits will go to zero because of increases for crop input prices. "Profits will go toward zero first for ethanol producers, then for crop producers, and eventually for input suppliers and landowners, says Massey, who predicted "a painful transition."
• With high market volatility, vigilant risk management is crucial says Missouri's Massey, and farmers need to keep watch of their financial strength. He says your current ratio of assets to debt should be 1.5 to 2.0 or better. That is $1 of debt for $2 of assets. He also recommended doubling your cash reserves, since production cost has doubled.
• Warm and sunny weather will speed corn dry down and cut your drying costs, although the late planting may mean you'll have drying charges. Peter Thomison at Ohio State says corn will dry 3/4 to 1% per day from mid to late September, but that slows to a rate of 1/2 to 3/4% per day going into October, and is negligible by late November.
• Thomison says count your growing degree days. "Generally, it takes 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25 to 20% requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture. In September we average about 10 to15 GDDs per day. In October (as weather cools) the rate drops to 5 to 10 GDDs per day."
• If you are harvesting corn for dry grain storage, OSU's Thomison says that should begin at 23% to 25% moisture, since waiting until 20% can mean yield losses from stalk lodging, ear rots, and insect feeding damage. The loss of one normal-sized ear every 100 feet of row means a loss of one bushel per acre, which is also two kernels per square foot.
• Use harvest to predict your 2009 weed crop suggests Iowa State's Michael Owen who says use of a single herbicide will quickly allow development of resistant weeds. Also:
  1) Weeds follow tillage patterns and the presence of live weeds indicates resistance.
  2) Once a weed problem is recognized it is usually too late to resolve the problem.
  3) Field ponds that produced only a crop of weeds will have major weeds in 2009.
  4) Field ponds may also warrant additional weed control tactics and separate management
  5) Plan to use an early pre-plant herbicide next year on 2008 problem areas.
• What are your soybean plans for 2009, Roundup Ready beans or conventional beans? MO agronomist Grover Shannon says the tripling of glyphosate prices are causing more farmers to return to a conventional system, using comparatively yielding soybeans, but with a cheaper cost of weed control, and less likelihood of glyphosate resistance. And Shannon says the going price for non-GMO soybeans is about $1 over CBOT prices.
• Scout soybeans for pod damage by bean leaf beetles. Holes will allow disease entry that will cause discolored, moldy, shriveled, or disease beans that otherwise look healthy.
• Compare your state to OH, where OSU agronomists say nearly every farm in Ohio has a field or two that could benefit from planting wheat by reducing problems associated with the continuous production of corn and soybeans. More: http://corn.osu.edu/#D
  1) Select the highest yielding variety, with resistance to multiple diseases and fungi.
  2) Plant in the first 10 days after the fly free date and avoid aphid-borne BYDV.
  3) Use the optimum seeding rate between 1.2 and 1.6 mil. seeds per acre.
  4) Plant seeds 1.5 in. deep, which is critical for tiller development and winter survival.
  5) Apply 20-30 lbs of nitrogen per acre at planting to enhance tiller development.
• High corn prices mean changes in cattle feeding. Nebraska's Darrel Mark says as the feeding cost of gain has doubled in the past two years, there is more incentive to background calves during the winter and following summer on forages and delay placing the cattle on feed until they are long yearlings at the end of the summer grazing season. But he says heavy calves weaned in the fall may have overweight carcasses.
• If you are evaluating retained ownership in the fall calf crop, Mark says decide whether to put them on feed then or wait until they are yearlings next fall. He says yearlings could generate a $69 return per head, compared to $2 return for calves that are fed to be sold in May 2009. Read: http://www.lmic.info/memberspublic/InTheCattleMarket.html .
• Farm Safety Week begins Sept. 21, and is designed to call attention to the hundreds of Cornbelt accidents involving slow moving farm equipment, particularly during the harvest season. Many states have requirements for highly reflective SMV placards, along with strong headlights and plenty of red lights that indicate the width of the equipment.
• Farmers should also take steps toward safer operations on their own farm, says IL safety specialist Bob Aherin, since a harvest mishap can mean a $300/day loss. Read more:
  1) Your pre-harvest checklist should include all safety lights and clean placards.
  2) Ensure ladders and steps are sturdy, and the header is blocked if working underneath.
  3) Keep combines free of dust, check for leaky fuel lines and hoses, have an extinguisher.
  4) Take breaks every two hours or so, to stretch and avoid injury, and drink water.
  5) Keep in radio or telephone communication with family members.