A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Ford-Iroquois Unit

Prepared in part by Stu Ellis, former Extension specialist and Karen Moore, County Director, Ford-Iroquois Unit.

• Wheat production was higher this year. That means more wheat is available as a livestock feed, which will dampen the demand for higher priced corn. That is the observation of Purdue economist Chris Hurt, who notes a 70% increase in soft red winter wheat in the Cornbelt. Since wheat has a feed value that is 10% greater than corn, and wheat is currently selling for 10-20¢ less than corn, livestock feeders are moving there. Hurt says that dynamic caused USDA to cut its old crop corn use by 100 mil. bu.
• The soybean basis may improve says Hurt who recommends separating a forward contract into its two components. He says sell the futures or options with the help of a commodities advisor and broker. At that point, the basis remains unpriced, and he says the basis could improve 20-40¢ yet per bushel. Read more of his newsletter at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/prices/grains/soybean.asp?ID=56 .
• Flooded and washed out fields are not excuses for non-delivery of contracted grain say a trio of IL ag law specialists. Their interpretation of the law is that a farmer can always satisfy a contract obligation by purchasing grain and delivering it to the elevator, instead of the grain lost to a flood. It is called "breach of contract," and their explanation is at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/legal/articles/ALTBs/ALTB_08-04/ALTB_08-04.pdf .
• Elevators can seek legal remedies, which the IL ag lawyers say includes the elevator buying grain to replace its commitments, then suing the farmer for the cost of the replacement grain, which could be at a premium to the original forward contract price.
• To avoid a breach of contract, farmers are advised to contact an attorney and negotiate a settlement which might be at a lesser price than the cost of the replacement grain. An effort to discuss the problems and offer a settlement may help avoid other incidental costs such as attorney fees for the elevator. Elevators may also have a variety of options.
• Diesel fuel prices certainly are not headed down anytime soon, says Kansas State economist Kevin Dhuyvetter. His projections of diesel fuel prices, based on NYMEX futures, indicate prices will be well above 2007 levels through the fall harvest season and into the spring. Read more: http://www.agmanager.info/energy/PriceForecasts.pdf
• If those diesel fuel costs prompt you to better manage your power equipment needs, NE Extension Specialist Tom Dorn has created a Fuel Cost Estimator, which allows you to calculate your per hour and per acre fuel costs for future projections. Find it at: http://hardin.osu.edu/agriculture/ag-newsletters/fuelcostestimator-2008.xls
• Cattle inventories continue to decline and that implies higher prices for cattle and less demand for feed grains. Purdue economist Chris Hurt says beef cow numbers have dropped about 1% during the year since calf prices are below the cost of production. Feedlot placements are down 9% and cattle on feed numbers are down 4% from last year.
• Chris Hurt says cattle prices would be even lower, were it not for improvements in trade and the low value of the dollar. Jan. thru May saw exports rise 34% from last year. He says with the weakness of the dollar, USDA is likely to revise its forecasts for beef trade. Exports had been projected at 18% and imports are down twice as much as expected.
• Beef prices will have strong fundamental support in the last two quarters of the year and Purdue's Hurt anticipates record high prices. He says that means a $97 average in the third quarter and a $100 average in the fourth quarter. That is a $95 average for the year and Hurt expects to see new record high cattle prices in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
• Strong cattle prices are also seen by Missouri economist Ron Plain, who says, "Feeder cattle prices, even though they are down from the high, are still quite strong and cow-calf producers have not been stressed financially enough to reduce the cow herd at a rapid rate. If the cow herd is as large as we believe, the 2008 calf crop will likely be down only slightly from a year earlier and cattle slaughter will be close to a year earlier for the next 18 months. Therefore, the prices for live cattle in the futures market look high to us."
• Soybean aphid populations are increasing and moving into fields across the Cornbelt. Entomologists in MN, SD, and IA all reported numbers at or above the 250 aphid per plant threshold for consideration of treatment. Higher temperatures will slow aphid multiplication. Specialists tell farmers to sample at least 20 plants per field. The bug experts say the 250 threshold should still be used despite increased soybean values.
• Will lady beetles show up in great enough numbers to control the aphids? That is an unanswered question, but natural enemies such as predator insects, rain, hail, and disease all slow the rate of population increase say MN Extension Specialists. Doubling of the population usually takes 4-5 days, but can take as few as 2-3 days if temperature conditions are cool enough, if predators are few, and on-going immigration.
• Western bean cutworm populations are increasing and moving across the Cornbelt, also. IL entomologist Kevin Steffey says the pest has not established itself as a threat to corn production in all areas, but the numbers being captured in traps are causing him to reconsider his perceptions. He says not only the numbers have to be significant, but farmers have to identify ear damage, and that it was caused by the bean cutworms.
• Scouting for western bean cutworms should be underway. Evidence of the pest is egg masses and small larvae on the upper leaves. Once the larvae hatch and work their way into the open end of the ear, then any effort at control with insecticides will not work. The economic threshold for treatment is 8% of the plants infested with eggs and larvae. Pictures of adults and eggs are at. http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1003
• If your corn has pollinated then Japanese beetles will not be a threat, but that is not the case in soybeans. Japanese beetles will defoliate soybean leaves, and with high futures prices, it will be cost effective to treat them. The threshold is active defoliation of 10-15% of leaves at the R3 growth stage, which is the beginning pod stage.
• Reports are mixed about the prevalence of corn rootworms. Entomologists say the number of adults around the Midwest have been fairly low, indicating widespread mortality earlier in the year. But in some IL Extension test plots, where corn root balls were dug, washed, and analyzed larvae were sufficient to inflict serious injury in some areas. Farmers are urged to do the same to evaluate the results of their rootworm control.
• New insecticides are coming onto the market for 2008 use in field crops:
  1) Leverage 2.7 controls soybean aphids, Japanese beetles and bean leaf beetles in soybeans, but has a minimum of 45 day interval between spraying and harvest.
  2) Hero is labeled for both corn and beans and controls corn rootworm adults, Japanese beetles, and two-spotted spider mites. It has a 21 day pre-harvest interval.
  3) Cobalt can be applied to alfalfa, corn, and beans for a control of a variety of insects and two spotted spider mites. It has a pre-harvest interval of 30 days for soybeans.
• Wheat growers will face late planting in the fall, if their acreage is following corn and soybeans which were planted late and will mature late. IL Specialist Emerson Nafziger says interest in wheat should remain high this fall with the help of high prices. He says seed should be in good supply, given the cool spring and good yields from the 2008 crop.
• Corn planting dates dictate GDD requirements according to IN and OH research. For each day past May 1, about 6.5 fewer GDD were required from planting to maturity. That means a 2,700 GDD hybrid only needs 2,500 if planted at the end of May, about 2,400 if planted by June 15, and about 2,300 if planted by the end of June. Read more at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=1007 .
• Cooler air penetrating the Cornbelt beginning in late August has a lot to do with corn reaching maturity says IL Specialist Emerson Nafziger. And he says the likelihood of frost increases at that point. Early frost occurs 1 year in 10 at the point where GDD accumulations have slowed to 10-12 per day. He says a 50% chance of frost occurs when GDD accumulations reach only 7-8 per day, which are about two weeks apart.
• Fast facts about corn will give you a reputation and add life to coffee shop discussions:
  1) Corn tassels produce between 2 million and 25 million pollen grains.
  2) Pollen grains are 80% water when shed and die when water content decreases to 40%.
  3) Up to 1000 ovules form per ear but we normally harvest 400 to 600 kernels per ear.
  4) As silks emerge, they grown as much as 1.5 inches per day.
  5) Unusually long silks are a symptom that the ear was not pollinated.
  6) Silks fall off fertilized ovules and remain attached to unfertilized ovules.
  7) 85% of grain yield is from kernel numbers per acre and 15% from kernel weight.