A weekly publication of University of Illinois Extension, Ford-Iroquois Unit

Prepared in part by Stu Ellis, former Extension specialist and Karen Moore, County Director, Ford-Iroquois Unit.

• The market has been buying more corn acres since the Planting Intentions report, but IL Extension economist Darrel Good wonders if there will really be the demand that the market expects. He says pork producers are reducing their inventory; corn exports may decline if the dollar rebounds and wheat stocks are available; and China's corn needs are uncertain. More: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/050508.html .
• Another question mark on corn demand is the ethanol market. Policy makers are debating the biofuels mandates and the tax credit received by blenders, in light of higher domestic food prices which critical consumers have erroneously blamed on ethanol. Good says, "At current prices for corn and ethanol, however, corn based ethanol production would remain profitable even with a modestly lower blender's tax credit."
• The USDA's World Outlook Board will be adjusting supply-demand numbers May 9. The market is expecting USDA to raise the carryout to 1.320 bil. bu. from the April 1.283 bil. bu. estimate because of slower corn use by ethanol plants. However, the market is also expecting the 2009-09 carryout to be only 707 mil. bu., which is historically tight.
• Darrel Good says if the market needs 13 bil. bu. for the year beginning in Sept., then the 2008 crop has to reach 12.7 bil. bu., and that would require a nearly 161 bu. average yield from nearly perfect weather. He's expecting planted acreage to exceed the March USDA estimates. Knowing the grain trade closely follows the weekly crop reports, Good says the market believes planting will speed up because farmers can plant more acres per day.
• Regarding soybeans, the market is expecting Friday's USDA reports to forecast a 2007-08 carryout at 152 mil. bu., compared to the 160 mil. in April. The 2008-09 carryout is expected to be 273 mil. bu., thanks to more production and fewer exports. The market expects world soybean production to grow slightly along with increased global demand.
• Research shows most of the time that trendline-adjusted corn crop yields are below average in La Nina years with a less chance for wheat and more likely average or above average yields on soybeans, says Jim Noel at Ohio State. "The data still supports a trend to drier than average for late May and June, but it does looks like at least average rain the next 2 weeks with small areas of above average rainfall mainly in the north."
• The western two-thirds of the Cornbelt are getting the most rainfall, says OSU weather specialist Jim Noel, "The western Cornbelt out towards Iowa, Wisconsin, So. Minnesota and NW. Illinois have been much, much wetter than Ohio and are being impacted even more. It appears the wettest areas will remain west of Ohio the next few weeks."
• How were 2007 yields? IL Extension economists report state averages were higher than trendline. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_09/fefo08_09.html .
  1) IL: 175 bu., 16 bu. above 2007 trend, with exceptional yields in nor. & cen. IL.
  2) IN: 155 bu., 2 bu. above 2007 trend, with above average yields in eastern IN.
  3) IA: 171 bu., 7 bu. above 2007 trend, eastern IA was above trend yield.
  4) MN: 146 bu., 12 bu. below 2007 trend, with poor yields in central MN.
  5) NE: 160 bu., 5 bu. above 2007 trend, no counties were very high or very low.
  6) OH: 150 bu., 3 bu. above 2007 trend, good county yields except western OH.
• Watch the growing degree days, not the calendar, says Extension's Emerson Nafziger, who says it is too early to switch to an earlier-maturing corn hybrid, "Corn planted later also requires fewer growing degree days to reach maturity than the same hybrid planted early, which adds to the cushion. In general, then, hybrids on hand for planting should not be switched out for earlier ones unless planting goes into very late May."
• Will higher seeding rates payoff, even with hybrid corn that costs over $200 per bag. IA State agronomists analyzed current corn prices versus seed costs and populations:
  1) Regardless of price, 36,000 population give maximum yield and net income.
  2) The 30,000 rate gave a slightly lower return, if producers have to cut seed costs.
  3) 42,000 and 48,000 rates have lower net returns for both 180 and 220 bu. yields.
  4) A 24,000 rate lowers returns, but not as much as the 48,000 seeding rate.
• If your soybean seeding rate exceeds 150,000 per acre, don't expect much yield increase. IL Specialist Nafziger says 100,000 may be the population that produces the maximum yields under most conditions. He says the canopy is the key and with late planting reducing vegetative growth, narrower rows will grow a better canopy. Read Nafziger's newsletter at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=930 .
• Wheat growers may not get much of a chance to plant doublecrop soybeans after taking out their wheat. The wheat crop is delayed along with everything else, so an early wheat harvest and longer growing period for soybeans has less likelihood. Nafziger says that will only happen if the temperature warms up, and he said that will hurt the wheat yield.
• Which is first: planting or weed control? Mike Owen at IA State knows your concern, but says a pre-emergent weed control before planting is a priority, or at least apply it immediately after planting. He adds that winter annual weeds are a problem, and "Do not think you can eliminate the burndown herbicide treatments in pre-emergence applications unless tillage has been conducted very close to the planting and spraying operations."
• Many farmers want to wait and apply Roundup after the crop and most weeds emerge. But Owen grits his teeth at that. "There are concerns that these treatments are being marketed as a 1-pass treatment that will provide season-long weed control. This is unlikely and plan on a timely second application of something postemergence."
• Shake up your herbicide program, says Mich. State agronomist Wes Everman, "Plan to use herbicide programs that account for deficiencies in last year's weed control program. Weed escapes the prior year can leave hundreds or thousands of weed seeds in the soil seed bank. Using the same herbicide program 2 years in a row can potentially compound the problem creating greater weed populations and weed control issues in the future."
• Armyworms are on the march out of KY into southern IN & IL and have found forage and wheatfields to their liking. It has been about 7 years since the last invasion, and IL Extension entomologists are urging producers not to depend on rescue recommendations from 2001, but get news ones at: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/pubs/iapmh/01chapter.pdf . They say the cold wet weather may even enhance fungus that will control armyworms.
• Many spring insect pests may be starving without fresh corn and beans. Entomologist Mike Gray says every specie is different and life cycles must be considered separately.
  1) Rootworms may starve if corn planting is delayed until late May.
  2) Corn borers may not be a problem, but late planting helps the second generation.
  3) Cutworms can thrive on weeds in untilled fields until corn begins to emerge.
  4) Annual white grub injury should be limited, but their development could be delayed.
  5) Wireworms may remain in the upper (warmer) soil layer and damage seedlings.
  6) Seedcorn maggot injury may be magnified by late planting in cool, wet soils.
• Is soybean rust a non-issue for you? If so, IL Extension crop specialist Robert Bellm says it is a bit early for that attitude. He says all soybeans are suitable hosts along with the Cornbelt environment, but weather patterns the past 3 years have not been conducive. He says field scouting pays off, and the protective management tools are accessible. Keep up to date by monitoring the official USDA rust site: http://www.sbrusa.net .
• Iowa State's Ellis says livestock producers need to be aware of dynamics. "In general, consumers are looking for cheaper products as the cost of food and fuel escalates. This means lower demand for higher priced well finished beef and sustained strong demand for pork. For producers even the best forecasted prices of the spring and summer will still not be enough to offset the impact that feed costs have made to the bottom line."