This document printed from the University
of Illinois Extension Extension Update on Ford-Iroquois Agriculture at http://www.extension.uiuc.edu/fordiroquois/
February 4, 2008
February 4, 2008
Karen S. Moore
County Extension Director
Ford/Iroquois Unit 912 W Seminary Ave
P.O. Box 163
Onarga, IL 60955-0163
Phone: 815-268-4051
FAX: 815-268-4058 ksmoore@illinois.edu
Managing 2008 Gross Revenues and Risks – February 20 Mark your calendar and plan to attend this face-to-face seminar from 8:30 – 11:00 a.m. at the Ford-Iroquois Extension Office in Onarga. Darrel Good, Scott Irwin, and Gary Schnitkey from the U of I will discuss how returns and risks can be managed with crop insurance and forward pricing. Specific emphasis will be given to 2008 changes in crop insurance products, including the Introduction of Biotech Yield Endorsement (BYE). Impacts of crop insurance product choice on forward pricing levels, pricing targets, and use of options will be examined. Cost is $10 per person. Brochures are available at the Extension office; register by calling Sue Esposito at 217-333-2312.
Ford-Iroquois Extension Ag Day 2008 in Buckley – February 29 A full day of excellent speakers awaits you at this popular annual event. The day begins with registration and a chance to visit Agribusiness / Extension Partner displays from 8 – 9 a.m. Topics include the Illinois Headwaters Resource Conservation & Development (RC&D) Area in Ford and Iroquois Counties, a session on wind energy, drainage, and an update on the new farm bill and what it means for Illinois producers. After a complimentary lunch, attendees will have the opportunity to hear more about foliar fungicides for corn and soybeans along with more tips on estate planning. Alternative programs are also available for spouses in the morning. CCA credits will also be available that day.
Despite high prices, demand has not softened for US soybeans, says IL Extension Specialist Darrel Good. The soybean crush will be 1-2% above last year from the demand for soybean meal from both domestic and export markets. Good says consumption of soybean oil is also up, even though the crush rate has resulted in near record oil stocks.
The soybean export market is also strong, and despite differing numbers from the USDA and Census Bureau, Darrel Good believes the current pace of business indicates a slightly higher export total than the 995 mil. bu. forecast by USDA. He says Chinese demand and the size of the South American harvest will be the final determination.
The export market for corn is also strong and the 2.45 bil. bu. forecast by USDA would be 15% more than last year, but Good says that could be exceeded based on current rates of export business. Like soybeans, the final numbers for corn exports will be influenced by the South American harvest and how the Northern Hemisphere wheat crop rebounds.
Domestically, the corn demand totaled 3.4 bil. bu. in the first quarter of the marketing year, and Good says that is 15% more than consumed last year. That reflects a 21% rise in ethanol production and a 13% increase in feed use. Read his latest newsletter for more details on usage: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/012808.html .
The latest Cattle on Feed Report estimated 12.097 mil. head on feed, up 1% from 2007 because of the 4th quarter 10% surge in feedlot placements caused from the lack of good pasture. However, the report was friendly to the market because placements were lower than expected, marketings were higher than expected, and the feed lot number was less. But Nebraska economist Darrel Mark says, "The level of concern about cattle prices and profits and particularly feed input prices has dramatically increased in the past 2 weeks."
The Annual Cattle Inventory will be released Friday, and is expected to show a slight decline in the total herd numbers. NE livestock economist Darrel Mark says that should be friendlier to prices, but "This smaller calf supply for so many years has resulted in so much competition amongst cattle feeders for those calves that the profit has more than been bid out of those calves. Cattle feeders can't afford to do this any longer."
There are no signs pork producers have begun herd reduction says MO livestock economist Glen Grimes, "We hear that some sow packers have animals booked three weeks ahead but it is not showing up in increased sow slaughter of significance as of the most recent data for the week ending January 12." He says the hog futures through Feb. 2009 are averaging $50 per cwt live, and he says now is the time to enter survival mode.
If you are paying more for Monsanto's triple stack biotech hybrids, IL Extension economist Gary Schnitkey says you will be paying a lower premium for crop insurance on those fields. His analysis of the Biotech Yield Endorsement available in IL, IA, IN & MN, shows discounts may be as high as 44% on APH policies with 65% loss coverage.
The BYE crop insurance requires 75% of the insured crop is planted with the Monsanto product, the salesman certifies eligible hybrids were used, and spot checks conducted. Several tips for using BYE are included in Schnitkey's latest newsletter found at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo08_03/fefo08_03.html. 1) CRC and RA premiums will not be known until early March. 2) Premiums for optional units with BYE may be cheaper than basic units without BYE. 3) Qualified hybrids are listed at: http://www.biotechyieldendorsement.com/ . 4) Premium rate examples are at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/index.asp .
Indemnity prices for 2007 crop insurance were higher than 2006, and Iowa St. economist Bill Edwards says 2008 will be higher still because of current corn and soybean market conditions. He says even if you don't change your protection level, the dollar value of the guarantee will change, and that will push insurance premiums higher. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/newsletters/nl2008/nlfeb08.pdf .
While revenue-based crop insurance premiums are not known, Edwards says yield insurance has been set. "Maximum indemnity prices for yield insurance (APH, GRP) have already been announced at $4.75 for corn and $11.50 for soybeans, an increase from the 2007 rates of $3.50 and $7.00, respectively. He says county premium rates for the Cornbelt are at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/cropins/cropinstoolsmain.asp?num=1
Green stem baffled many soybean producers this fall, but IL Extension Crop Specialist Dennis Epplin says soybeans digest their leaves, petioles and stems to complete the pod filling process and add a few more bushels per acre. If the digestion of plant parts is not needed to complete pod fill, then these plant parts remain green, as was observed this fall. Until this theory is proven, Epplin says the only management option is seed selection.
Grass buffers not only trap sediment, but MO soil scientist Robert Lerch says the grass creates an environment for bacteria in their root zone which degrade herbicides by eating carbon and nitrogen in the chemicals. Lerch says a sloped 25 ft. grass test strip reduced atrazine, metolachlor, and glyphosate movement by 80%, but field conditions may vary.
To save your fertilizer money, OH State soil specialist Robert Mullen says take a soil test. He says less than 40% of national corn acres are tested, "Take phosphorus and potassium as an example. With both nutrients skyrocketing in price, a soil test would reveal how much potassium and phosphorus are currently available in the soil."
