This document printed from the University
of Illinois Extension Extension Update on Ford-Iroquois Agriculture at http://www.extension.uiuc.edu/fordiroquois/
January 28, 2008
January 28, 2008
Karen S. Moore
County Extension Director
Ford/Iroquois Unit 912 W Seminary Ave
P.O. Box 163
Onarga, IL 60955-0163
Phone: 815-268-4051
FAX: 815-268-4058 ksmoore@illinois.edu
Ford-Iroquois Ag Breakfast – Feb. 6thMark your calendar and plan to attend the monthly Ford-Iroquois Ag Breakfast on Wednesday, February 6th beginning promptly at 7 a.m. Cost per person for breakfast is $5 (please have exact change). Phil Anderson will be discussing "Ag Technology 2008" with Arends Brothers in Melvin serving as this month's sponsor. Pre-registration for breakfast is requested by calling the Ford-Iroquois Extension Office at 815/268-4051 by noon on February 5th.
Sky high futures prices, but a mediocre cash price has plagued the soybean market for nearly 2 years, and IL Extension Marketing Specialist Darrel Good says the fact that futures and cash prices do not converge at delivery points "implies that the delivery mechanism is failing to some extent." And he says that may continue awhile.
Darrel Good says, "Persistence of futures prices above cash value at maturity may indicate that the extremely large speculative activity in the futures markets is holding futures prices artificially high and that the delivery mechanism is not robust enough to force convergence of cash and futures prices." He says the weak basis is more than just transportation, storage cost and availability, insurance, and interest on a high value crop.
The wide soybean basis has affected short hedgers, because the basis has not improved as expected to cover storage costs. Some elevators have also taken steps to limit futures margin exposure by curtailing use of hedge-to-arrive contracts, and forcing producers to hedge themselves. http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketing/weekly/html/012208.html .
Farm stored corn will benefit from the carry through July, says Michigan State's Jim Hilker. "We have the smallest world coarse grain ending stock projected in 3 decades; it is hard to set a strategy. One could consider selling smaller amounts on up market days and spread remaining 2007 crop sales over the next six months. If you are paying commercial storage, check out a basis contract, and see if you can use the same strategy."
Hilker's price probability for corn is an 80% chance for March corn to be between $5.28 and $4.51, with a 10% chance it will be either above or below those levels. The 80% probability range for Dec. corn is from $3.56 to $6.72.
Hilker's price probability for beans is an 80% chance for March beans to be between $13.62 and $11.21, with a 10% chance it will be either above or below those levels. The 80% probability range for Nov. beans is from $8.78 to $16.02.
Hilker's price probability for wheat is an 80% chance for March wheat to be between $11.04 and $7.76, with a 10% chance it will be either above or below those levels. The 80% probability range for Dec. wheat is from $5.72 to $12.58.
If you are nervous about market volatility, MO economist Melvin Brees suggests selling cash grain and re-owning it with options. "Put options or various option spread strategies can also work, but premiums are expensive. The premium cost often results in considerable cash outlay and produces protected price floors well below current prices. However, in most cases these still represent profitable prices."
Spring is not far off, if it is time to frost seed your pasture and Iowa St. agronomists say Feb. & Mar. is time to do that because of the freeze-thaw cycles giving seed a shallow cover. Red clover gives the best success, when spread on the thinnest, least vigorous areas. But they say success requires average or better rainfall and growing conditions. Read more at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/PM856.pdf .
Avoid high N expense on pastures by inter-seeding a legume crop that transfers 20% of its N to surrounding grass. MO agronomists say legumes, such as red clover or lespedeza can provide 50-300 lbs. of N per acre. Potash and pH are important, since legumes need high soil tests. http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v18n1/a1.pdf .
If your pasture needs N, fertilize when the plant can respond and maximize forage utilization, since it only pays if you can increase beef or milk production or hay sales. MO agronomist John Lory suggests that "manure nitrogen is typically 50-60% available when it is surface applied but 100% of manure phosphorus and potassium is available to the crop." More: http://ppp.missouri.edu/newsletters/ipcm/archives/v18n1/a2.pdf .
Soils that have a history of adequate or perhaps even a little excessive P and K fertilization resulting in a high soil test levels are unlikely to benefit (yield-wise) from the inclusion of P and K in a starter fertilizer, say Ohio St. agronomists Robert Mullen and Edwin Lentz. Soils that are below the established critical value in P and K can benefit, especially if broadcast applications were not made the previous fall or in the spring.
Don't forget to update your records if you are a certified applicator and have used restricted-use pesticides this year. They should include product name and EPA number, amount applied, location, acreage, date, crop, and certification number of the applicator. Information and forms are at: http://www.ams.usda.gov/science/sdpr.htm .
Popcorn growers will have to become more educated about the crop they have. You are not just growing popcorn anymore, but there are three main groups. Iowa St. and USDA researchers compared 29 traits and grouped them into: North American Yellow Pearl, which contains most commercial varieties; North American Pointed Rice; and North American Early Popcorn. More is at: http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/2008/080111.htm .
Soybean seed quality is being questioned by Ohio St. specialists Anne Dorrance and Jim Beuerlein. "Much of the seed supply in the eastern Midwest has lower than normal quality due to a stressful growing season and being harvested at low moisture. Physical damage caused by harvest and handling is causing low vigor and more abnormal growth in germination test than normal." They recommend several steps you can take: 1) A fungicide treatment will protect against early season seed rot. 2) Fungicide returns best on fields with poor drainage, no-till, or continuous soybeans. 3) Fungicide will protect against seed-borne diseases, such as phomopsis. 4) When buying seed, ask for results of a cold germination test on the seed.
Low germination rates may be seen on seed beans, or at least less than the typical 92% floor. WI Extension's John Gaska says some may be marketed as low as 80% because of environmental adversity in 2007. The result is thin seed coats which are damaged during the conditioning process. Gaska says while a seed treatment might be needed, he is not a strong advocate, since further handling can further damage the seed coat.
If 180,000 drilled seed beans emerge at a 90% rate, but only 80% of the original seeds germinate, the plant population is below 130,000 per acre. Gaska says, "Under most environmental conditions 129,000 plants/acre would produce 100% yield potential, however if we do not achieve our assumed 90% emergence rate due to poor early season growing conditions we rapidly approach stands where yield loss may occur."
Germination tests can be performed by state crop improvement agencies, or at home. Count out 100 seeds, fold them into a damp paper towel, seal in a zip lock bag, and store in a warm location out of the sunlight. Count the seeds with an intact root and shoot after 5 days. Repeating that 4 times with seeds selected from random bags is a better test.
Growing switchgrass? Iowa St. Economist Mike Duffy tallies the $113.66 per acre production costs at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a1-22.html . 1) Establishing the crop, prorated over 11 years is $34.26 per acre. 2) Re-seeding the crop 25% of the time, prorated over 10 years is $6.18 per acre. 3) With a 4 ton per acre yield, the per ton production cost would be $82.23. 4) The need to store it requires a building, with costs estimated at $16.67 per ton. 5) Transportation to storage is $6.10 per ton, then $8.65 per ton to the plant.
The success of switchgrass, says Duffy depends upon available markets, and the economic incentive for producers to change their rotation systems to allow a permanent field of switchgrass. He says the CRP could play a role, if green payments were added to the CRP rent, then production costs could be reduced, but erosion control would remain.
